S&P 500 ~ Weekly Big Picture

This is has been our longer term wave count for quite some time. So far there has been nothing in the recent price action to alter this view. Bigger picture, 1345 still looks like a significant market top, though the (B) wave is probably not complete. Wave z should last until the end of year. Presidential election years are typically good years for the market. This wave count suggests otherwise....

-Bb y
Important Top at 1345

(B) z a w

(C)

c (A)

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily

The proposed -x- wave with e-wave took an extra week longer than we expected, but the result is the same. The move lower had an unfinished look about it, exemplified by the extreme choppy/consolidative bounce from the 1100 lows. As it has been pointed out in the last several weeks here, taking out 1100 almost looks like a certainty. Bears will need to tread more carefully once 1100 gets taken out, though. At that point, well be witnessing Daily RSI divergence and heading toward medium term chart support in the low 1000s

REPRINTED from 9/25/2011

d

z
-x-?

-w-? -y-? e

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily

On our last S&P 500 Update we wrote: taking out 1100 almost looks like a certainty. Bears will need to tread more carefully once 1100 gets taken out, though. At that point, well be witnessing Daily RSI divergence and heading toward medium term chart support in the low 1000s. That was an understatement. The S&P500 broke below 1100 and then staged a tremendous bounce from a serious BEAR TRAP. The count weve been on, though, was somewhat useful in keep us away from this bear trap. Wave x certainly concluded at the 1075 low. Given the powerful strength b d of the initial move off that low, Wave z is y probably a contracting triangle. We should expect several weeks of whipsaw congestion before Wave z concludes.
a c a c -x-

b -w-

-ye

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily

Every few weeks I visit some Orthodox Elliot Wave websites to see how theyre counting the market. Not surprisingly, some folks are attempting to label the decline as five-wave move lower as detailed below. Its a shockingly poor count given the fact that none of the waves lower can be counted as impulses. The important takeaway, though, is that theres a large community of people who believe this is a wave-2 bounce, therefore the 61.8% retrace will be sold hard on the first go.
2

The market should experience strong resistance into the 1258 area which is also chart resistance. It should be a newsy Monday as the EU ponders more and more bailouts. The market has been rallying into the various pronouncements--traders should expect a Sell the News move this week.

4 1

3 5

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly

I remain stuck on the idea that were carving out a Head and Shoulder pattern on a much larger scale. The left shoulder was a long-enduring and complicated pattern. It shouldnt surprise us to see the right shoulder be equally long-enduring and messy.

Head

Left Shoulder

Right Shoulder

H&S within the larger H&S setup

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 Daily: Support and Resistance

Short term support for bulls lies at 1191. If that level gives way, there is no real support until 1121. As noted earlier, the 1258 area is going to be strong resistance. Above there, 1296 should also be good resistance--that level was an important pivot during the several month congestive range between March and July.

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.