S&P 500 ~ Weekly Big Picture

The e-wave of an expanding triangle rarely gets retraced by the next wave. The implications are that 1345 will serve as a market peak for at least the next few years. This next (C) Wave should last AT LEAST two years and targets an S&P 500 around 800. Market participants should prepare themselves for a difficult a trading environment through 2013.

REPRINTED from 8/6/2011

-Bb y (B)
Important Top at 1345

a w x

-A-

(C)

c (A)

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly (Non-Log)

Some of the themes of the last several updates was to start focusing more on the bigger picture. How much time and effort should we spend trying to figure out the last small wave in (B) when were facing the prospects of a (C) Wave that should last 1.5-2 years and take the S&P500 below 900? Thats why weve been hammering on the following motto: Longer term investors should be using rallies to get OUT. Shorter term traders should be waiting on rallies to get SHORT. The nature of this market has changed.

-Bb y (B) z a w x x

(C)

c (A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly (Non-Log) with Fibbos

Someone seems to be paying attention to the Fibonacci retracements of the entire advance--notice the perfect bounce from the 38.2% retrace. This move lower will not conclude at a Fibbo retrace, but the market is clearly paying attention, therefore, we should as well. Im expecting (C) to be a corrective/choppy move lower. Maybe we even get a large scale Head and Shoulder development?

-Bb y (B) z
Right Shoulder Head

Left Shoulder

w x x

(C)

c (A)
Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily

Its still difficult to determine if the x wave concluded at the puke out low of 1101, but if it did, the minimum target of the z wave would be 1216 and it should take about 3 calendar months. If this is whats happening, then we can expect plenty of sideways/higher grind as the z wave has already met its minimum objective of 1216 (38.2% of y wave). A 50% would take the z to 1253. Given that the 61.8% retrace of the last violent move down comes in at 1259, I would expect STIFF resistance in the 1250s.
b d

c a

e??

x x

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily

If we get some perfect symmetry between the waves flowing in the same direction, we might get a 61.8% of y that takes half the time of y. This would suggest 1288 by Mid-November. That should be considered a dream scenario for bulls. I dont expect this outcome, but its just fun to look a colorful rectangles sometimes.

y z

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Resistance Levels

Im only going to be focusing on resistance levels for the foreseeable future, because if I show support points, it might imply that we should be buying this market. 1209 is near the 62% retrace and looks like a good first level of resistance in the next few weeks. 1231 and 1260 are very obvious resistance levels for the next month

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1 or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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