Está en la página 1de 9

DIANA PATRICIA QUINTERO GÓMEZ

MATERIALES

 

$ 2,439,957,936

 

MOD

 

$ 24,399,579

CIF

 

$ 450,477,234

 
 

X

 

20

30

P(x)

 

0.05

0.1

E(x)

n=74

x=20

E(x)

59.08

R/ En promedio se espera que el proyecto se demore 59,08 días

 

ANÁLISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD

 

Var (x)= E(x) 2 _ M(x) 2

 

E(x) 2 =

n=74

(x) 2 * P(X)

 

x=20

 

=

3753.56

Var (x)= E(x) 2 _ M(x) 2 Var (x)=

263.11

Var ©=

=

K+KX+K K 2 * Var (k)

=

$ 156,641,911,948,645,000

 

DISPERSIÓN

√X=

395,780,131 395,780,131
395,780,131
395,780,131

DIANA PATRICIA QUINTERO GÓMEZ

EMPRESA CONSTRUCTORA XYZ LTDA.

MOD TOTAL

$ 1,441,527,149

1

TABLA DE PROBABILIDADES

40

50

 

60

70

0.03

0.12

 

0.2

0.1

 

E ©= M+MOD+CIF

 

E©=

$ 4,331,962,319

R/ El costo estimado promedio del proyecto es de

DIANA PATRICIA QUINTERO GÓMEZ EMPRESA CONSTRUCTORA XYZ LTDA. MOD TOTAL $ 1,441,527,149 1 TABLA DE PROBABILIDADES
DIANA PATRICIA QUINTERO GÓMEZ EMPRESA CONSTRUCTORA XYZ LTDA. MOD TOTAL $ 1,441,527,149 1 TABLA DE PROBABILIDADES

$ 4,727,742,449

ANÁLISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD

R/EL PROYECTO NO ES CONFIABLE YA QUE ES M

DIANA PATRICIA QUINTERO GÓMEZ

 

71

72

73

74

0.12

0.14

0.08

0.06

$ 4,331,962,319

9.136

X= Inversión (gasto publicidad) Y= incremento en las ventas

 

1%

 

X=

$ 696,280

incremento

5%

 

tamaño de muestra =

100

 
 

T

   
 

$ 696,280

$ 731,094

$ 789,463

100

108

$ 797,438

101

109

 

Y

$ 805,493

102

110

 

$ 813,629

103

112

$ 821,848

104

113

$ 830,149

105

114

$ 838,534

106

115

$ 847,004

107

116

COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACIÓN

 

Cov (x,y)

Tx . Ty

Cov (x,y) =

E (x.y) - (E(x).E(y))

1.

E (x.y)

=

(x.y. P(x,y))

T

   
 

$ 696,280

$ 731,094

$ 789,463

 
  • 0.0096 0.01034

$ 797,438

 
  • 0.0096 0.01044

 

Y

$ 805,493

 
  • 0.0097 0.01055

 

$ 813,629

 
  • 0.0098 0.01065

$ 821,848

 
  • 0.0099 0.01076

$ 830,149

 
  • 0.0100 0.01087

$ 838,534

 
  • 0.0101 0.01098

$ 847,004

 
  • 0.0102 0.01109

E (x.y)

=

$ 590,139,283,124

PR

   
 

$ 696,280

 

$ 731,094

 

$ 789,463

0.0096

 

0.01034

 

$ 797,438

0.0096

 

0.01044

 

Y

 

$ 805,493

0.0097

 

0.01055

   

$ 813,629

0.0098

 

0.01065

 

$ 821,848

0.0099

 

0.01076

 

$ 830,149

0.0100

 

0.01087

 

$ 838,534

0.0101

 

0.01098

 

$ 847,004

0.0102

 

0.01109

 

0.079

0.086

2.

xii

3.

E(x)=

X.P(X)

E(Y)=

xi

E(x)=

875,000

E(Y)=

 

E (x.y) - (E(x).E(y))

 

Cov (x,y) = Cov (x,y) =

 

-125938331883.58200

Var (x)=

E(x) 2 - M(x) 2

 

Var (y)=

E(x) 2

777,066,707,190

E(y) 2

M(x) 2

765,625,461,527

M(y) 2

total

11,441,245,663

total

 

√X=

 

106963.76

 

√y=

 

Cov (x,y)

=

###

 

√X* √y

 

2014708723

R/ SI ESTA ENTRE EL 0% Y 20% NO HAY ASOCIACION

EMPRESA MX S.A.

1%

ABLA DE CONTINGENCIA

 

X

$ 767,649

$ 806,031

$ 846,333

$ 888,649

$ 933,082

$ 979,736

117

127

137

149

161

175

118

128

139

150

163

176

120

130

140

152

164

178

121

131

142

153

166

180

122

132

143

155

168

182

123

133

145

156

169

183

124

135

146

158

171

185

126

136

147

160

173

187

ABLA DE CONTINGENCIA

 

n

 

X

$ 767,649

$ 806,031

$ 846,333

$ 888,649

$ 933,082

$ 979,736

0.01120

 
  • 0.01213 0.01422

0.01313

   
  • 0.01540 0.01667

0.01131

 
  • 0.01225 0.01436

0.01326

   
  • 0.01555 0.01684

0.01142

 
  • 0.01237 0.01450

0.01339

   
  • 0.01571 0.01701

0.01154

 
  • 0.01249 0.01465

0.01353

   
  • 0.01586 0.01718

0.01165

 
  • 0.01262 0.01480

0.01366

   
  • 0.01602 0.01735

0.01177

 
  • 0.01274 0.01494

0.01380

   
  • 0.01618 0.01752

0.01189

 
  • 0.01287 0.01509

0.01394

   
  • 0.01634 0.01770

0.01201

 
  • 0.01300 0.01524

0.01408

   
  • 0.01651 0.01788

OBABILIDADES EXTERNAS

SUMA=

X

 

$ 767,649

$ 806,031

$ 846,333

$ 888,649

$ 933,082

$ 979,736

 

0.01120

0.01213

0.01313

0.01422

0.01540

0.01667

 

0.01131

0.01225

0.01326

0.01436

0.01555

0.01684

 

0.01142

0.01237

0.01339

0.01450

0.01571

0.01701

 

0.01154

0.01249

0.01353

0.01465

0.01586

0.01718

 

0.01165

0.01262

0.01366

0.01480

0.01602

0.01735

 

0.01177

0.01274

0.01380

0.01494

0.01618

0.01752

 

0.01189

0.01287

0.01394

0.01509

0.01634

0.01770

 

0.01201

0.01300

0.01408

0.01524

0.01651

0.01788

 

0.093

0.100

0.109

0.118

0.128

0.138

Yii

Y.P(Y)

Yi

 

818,374

E(y) 2 - M(y) 2

 
 

670,091,056,464

669,736,282,923

354,773,541

18835

-62.51

 

$ 1,028,723

189

191

193

195

197

199

201

203

10471

 

$ 1,028,723

0.01805

0.01823

0.01842

0.01860

0.01879

0.01898

0.01916

0.01936

1.0

   

$ 1,028,723

0.01805

0.121

0.01823

0.122

0.01842

0.123

0.01860

0.124

0.01879

0.126

0.01898

0.127

0.01916

0.128

0.01936

0.129

0.150