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DIANA PATRICIA QUINTERO GÓMEZ

 MATERIALES \$ 2,439,957,936 MOD \$ 24,399,579 CIF \$ 450,477,234 X 20 30 P(x) 0.05 0.1 E(x) n=74 ∑ x=20 E(x) 59.08

R/ En promedio se espera que el proyecto se demore 59,08 días

 ANÁLISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD Var (x)= E(x) 2 _ M(x) 2 E(x) 2 = n=74 (x) 2 * P(X) ∑ x=20 = 3753.56 Var (x)= E(x) 2 _ M(x) 2 Var (x)= 263.11 Var ©= = K+KX+K K 2 * Var (k) = \$ 156,641,911,948,645,000 DISPERSIÓN

√X=

395,780,131
395,780,131

DIANA PATRICIA QUINTERO GÓMEZ

EMPRESA CONSTRUCTORA XYZ LTDA.

MOD TOTAL

\$ 1,441,527,149

1

 40 50 60 70 0.03 0.12 0.2 0.1 E ©= M+MOD+CIF E©= \$ 4,331,962,319

R/ El costo estimado promedio del proyecto es de

\$ 4,727,742,449

R/EL PROYECTO NO ES CONFIABLE YA QUE ES M

DIANA PATRICIA QUINTERO GÓMEZ

 71 72 73 74 0.12 0.14 0.08 0.06

\$ 4,331,962,319

9.136

X= Inversión (gasto publicidad) Y= incremento en las ventas

1%

X=

\$ 696,280

incremento

5%

tamaño de muestra =

100

T

\$ 696,280

\$ 731,094

\$ 789,463

100

108

\$ 797,438

101

109

# Y

\$ 805,493

102

110

\$ 813,629

103

112

\$ 821,848

104

113

\$ 830,149

105

114

\$ 838,534

106

115

\$ 847,004

107

116

COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACIÓN

Cov (x,y)

Tx . Ty

Cov (x,y) =

E (x.y) - (E(x).E(y))

1.

E (x.y)

=

(x.y. P(x,y))

T

\$ 696,280

\$ 731,094

\$ 789,463

• 0.0096 0.01034

\$ 797,438

• 0.0096 0.01044

# Y

\$ 805,493

• 0.0097 0.01055

\$ 813,629

• 0.0098 0.01065

\$ 821,848

• 0.0099 0.01076

\$ 830,149

• 0.0100 0.01087

\$ 838,534

• 0.0101 0.01098

\$ 847,004

• 0.0102 0.01109

E (x.y)

=

\$ 590,139,283,124

PR

\$ 696,280

\$ 731,094

\$ 789,463

0.0096

0.01034

\$ 797,438

0.0096

0.01044

# Y

\$ 805,493

0.0097

0.01055

\$ 813,629

0.0098

0.01065

\$ 821,848

0.0099

0.01076

\$ 830,149

0.0100

0.01087

\$ 838,534

0.0101

0.01098

\$ 847,004

0.0102

0.01109

0.079

0.086

2.

xii

3.

E(x)=

X.P(X)

E(Y)=

xi

E(x)=

875,000

E(Y)=

E (x.y) - (E(x).E(y))

Cov (x,y) = Cov (x,y) =

-125938331883.58200

Var (x)=

E(x) 2 - M(x) 2

Var (y)=

E(x) 2

777,066,707,190

E(y) 2

M(x) 2

765,625,461,527

M(y) 2

total

11,441,245,663

total

√X=

106963.76

√y=

Cov (x,y)

=

###

√X* √y

2014708723

R/ SI ESTA ENTRE EL 0% Y 20% NO HAY ASOCIACION

EMPRESA MX S.A.

1%

ABLA DE CONTINGENCIA

# X

\$ 767,649

\$ 806,031

\$ 846,333

\$ 888,649

\$ 933,082

\$ 979,736

117

127

137

149

161

175

118

128

139

150

163

176

120

130

140

152

164

178

121

131

142

153

166

180

122

132

143

155

168

182

123

133

145

156

169

183

124

135

146

158

171

185

126

136

147

160

173

187

ABLA DE CONTINGENCIA

n

# X

\$ 767,649

\$ 806,031

\$ 846,333

\$ 888,649

\$ 933,082

\$ 979,736

0.01120

• 0.01213 0.01422

0.01313

• 0.01540 0.01667

0.01131

• 0.01225 0.01436

0.01326

• 0.01555 0.01684

0.01142

• 0.01237 0.01450

0.01339

• 0.01571 0.01701

0.01154

• 0.01249 0.01465

0.01353

• 0.01586 0.01718

0.01165

• 0.01262 0.01480

0.01366

• 0.01602 0.01735

0.01177

• 0.01274 0.01494

0.01380

• 0.01618 0.01752

0.01189

• 0.01287 0.01509

0.01394

• 0.01634 0.01770

0.01201

• 0.01300 0.01524

0.01408

• 0.01651 0.01788