This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?

BooksAudiobooksComicsSheet Music### Categories

### Categories

Scribd Selects Books

Hand-picked favorites from

our editors

our editors

Scribd Selects Audiobooks

Hand-picked favorites from

our editors

our editors

Scribd Selects Comics

Hand-picked favorites from

our editors

our editors

Scribd Selects Sheet Music

Hand-picked favorites from

our editors

our editors

Top Books

What's trending, bestsellers,

award-winners & more

award-winners & more

Top Audiobooks

What's trending, bestsellers,

award-winners & more

award-winners & more

Top Comics

What's trending, bestsellers,

award-winners & more

award-winners & more

Top Sheet Music

What's trending, bestsellers,

award-winners & more

award-winners & more

P. 1

Valuation|Views: 21|Likes: 0

Publicado porPaulo Capriglione

See more

See less

https://es.scribd.com/doc/48458106/Valuation

02/09/2011

text

original

co Politécnico Grancolombiano Bogotá, Colombia Joseph Tham Fulbright Economics Teaching Program Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam ThamJx@yahoo.com jtham@fetp.vnn.vn

Ignacio Vélez-Pareja is the Director of the Department of International Relations and Finance professor at Politecnico GranColombiano, Bogota, Colombia. Joseph Tham is a Project Associate at the Center for Business and Government, J.F.K School of Government. Currently, he is teaching at the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program (FETP) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Constructive feedback and critical comments are welcome. The authors may be contacted at: ivelez@poligran.edu.co, ThamJx@yahoo.com. Ignacio Vélez-Pareja will be the presenter at the conference of the European Financial Management Association, June 27-30, 2001 in Lugano, Switzerland. Contact Information Politécnico Grancolombiano Calle 57 N 3-00 E Bogota, Colombia Phone #: (571) 3468800 Fax #: (571) 3469258

**Firm Valuation: Free Cash Flow or Cash Flow to Equity?
**

Ignacio Vélez-Pareja ivelez@poligran.edu.co Joseph Tham ThamJx@yahoo.com jtham@fetp.vnn.vn

Abstract In a M & M world, the equity value is the present value of the Free Cash Flow FCF at the Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACC minus debt and it should be identical to the present value of the CFE (cash flow to equity) discounted at the cost of equity capital, e. In this paper the relationship between firm value calculated through the FCF and the CFE is examined. Several approaches to the firm value calculations are presented. We present a complex model where we compare the results obtained with the traditional M&M WACC found in the literature with the WACC approach presented by Harris and Pringle 1985. They make two assumpt ions that differ from the traditional M & M WACC. First, they assume that the discount rate for the tax shield is ρ, the return to unlevered equity. Second, based on the first assumption, the expression for e, the return to levered equity does not include the factor (1-T). Unlike the traditional WACC, the new WACC gives consistent results. However, the new WACC does not work if there are losses carried forward and/or the taxes are paid the following year. To solve these two practical issues, we present a ne w adjusted WACC. We call this adjusted WACC, TV WACC. In addition to the above-mentioned assumptions, this WACC is defined as a function of the real tax savings TS, earned. When this new approach is used, total consistency is found. In particular, with thi s new approach losses carried forward LCF and taxes paid at a different date as accrued, are taken into account and we obtain consistent values. Keywords Firm valuation, NPV, Free Cash Flow, FCF, Cash Flow to Equity, CFE, Cash Flow to Debt, CFD, Discounted Cash Flow, DFC. JEL Classification: D92, E22, G12, G31, M40, M41, M46

1

When this new approach is used. Unlike the traditional WACC. Just remember the boom of the dot com firms. they assume that the discount rate for the tax shield is ρ. Not even a dollar was earned and they sold the stocks for skyrocketed prices. e. the new WACC gives consistent results. we present a new adjusted WACC. Second. In addition to the above -mentioned assumptions. TV W ACC. To understand these ideas assume that there is a box with a machine inside. First. Value arises from expectations. In this paper the relationship between firm value calculated through the FCF and the CFE is examined. it has the capacity to create wealth and value. When valuing a firm the idea is to measure that value. if she pays the price listed on the price tag. are taken into account and we obtain consistent values. earned. this WACC is defined as a function of the real tax savings TS. she will ask for a premium in order not to start the project. greater that its price. Anyone could buy it. 2 . Value will never be found in accounting statements. if somebody asks the owner of that project not to develop it. We present a complex model where we compare the results obtained with the traditional M&M WACC found in the literature with the WACC approach presented by Harris and Pringle 1985. They make two assumptions that differ from the traditional M & M WACC. Several approaches to the firm value calculations are presented. a plan and a team led by an outstanding manager. However.Introduction In a M & M world. with this new approach losses carried forward LCF and taxes paid at a different date as accrued. the return to levered equity does not include the factor (1-T). However. if that machine is accompanied by a strategy. the expression for e. the return to unlevered equity. In particular. the equity value is the present value of the Free Cash Flow FCF at the Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACC minus debt and it should be identical to the present value of the CFE (cash flow to equity) discounted at the cost of equity capital. In fact. To solve these two practical issues. And where are these expectations? They are in the future cash flows. And this value is based on expectations of what the machine and the team could do in terms of wealth creation. the new WACC does not work if there are losses carried forward and/or the taxes are paid the following year. total consistency is found. We call this adjusted WACC. The problems arise because what is sold is the value that can be created in the future. Where value lies? Some people think that the value of a firm is found in the financial statements. based on the first assumption. What were they buying? Just value expectations.

This is. e is calculated as e = ρ + (1-T) (ρ – d)D%/E% (2) And the discount rate for the tax shield is d. It is expresse d as WACC = eE% + d(1-T)D% (1) Where e is the cost of equity. This WACC assumes that there are no losses and there are no losses carried forward (LCF) and taxes are paid the same year as accrued. In a M & M world. the discount rate for the tax shield is ρ. This HP WACC differs from the MM WACC in two significant ways. this traditional formulation does not work in the finite period cash flows. These two values are not equal. The problem lies in what is the correct discount rate to be used to discount the cash flows. measures this future value. Some background on WACC In the literature we find the traditional presentation for WACC for discounting the FCF excluding tax savings from interest payments. We will examine the WACC proposed by Harris and Pringle (1985) and we call it the HP WACC. E% is the proportion of equity in the total value.Discounting the free cash flow FCF. We assume that there are no losses and there are no losses carried forward (LCF) and taxes are paid the same year as accr ued. This paper studies this problem. In the traditional presentation. We will show how using different approaches we arrive at different figures and we will show approaches that produce consistent results and those that do not. D% is the proportion of debt in total value and T is tax rate. First. d is the cost of debt before taxes. Second. Then the correct WACC proposed by Tham & Velez (TV) is TV WACC = ρ – TS/(Total levered value) (4) 3 . Unfortunately. However. for the firm at the Weighted Average Cost of Capital and subtracting the debt or discounting the cash flow to equity holders CFE. e = ρ + (ρ – d)D%/E% (3) In practice we encounter losses carried forward (LCF). We will call this the MM WACC. If there are LCF neither of the two expressions for WACC works. current practice find that this does not happens. based on the first assumption. these two values must be equal. the expression for e does not include (1T). at the cost of equity.

the “plug” is a decision: either to borrow money or to invest it (or leave it in the bank). the financial statements: Balance Sheet. prices and the rest.This last version of WACC assumes ρ as the discount rate for the Tax savings. volume increases. In this paper we will show a comparison between the results obtained with the thre e versions for WACC1.TS/(Total levered value) (5) (6) (7) (8) This presentation is the most general way to express WACC. accounts receivable and payable policies. We recognize that many other WACC are found in the literature.TdD/(Total levered value) WACC = eE% + dD% . It has the feature that considers tax savings when they are in fact earned. 1 4 . it is expected to earn at least the WACC. From tables A12 to A16. P&L statements and Cash Budget or Working Cash Statement. equity investments. WACC = eE% + dD% . As it is invested in the firm. prices increases and an elasticity function among others. automatically it determines how much to borrow We are restricting our comparison to the traditional MM WACC.TdD% WACC = eE% + dD% . a cash cushion 2. 2000 2 It is assumed that this amount of cash is deposited in a check account that is a nonbearing interest account.TS/(Total levered value) WACC = ρ . This information is used to calculate firm value and NPV in order to compare with market values. the TS refers to the difference in the tax shield between the levered cash flows and the unlevered cash flows. It can be seen as a different presentation of the typical WACC formula. In tables A1 to A7 are the inputs. inflation. With these inputs we calculate interest rates (from real rates. A Complex Model All these approaches work with a complex model. In reality. There is not what some authors call “plugs” (an account where any difference between total assets and liabilities plus equity are included in order the Balance Sheet checks). Tables A8 to A11 present the forecasts of every variable including units sold. In the Cash Budget you will find that when the balance is in red. See Taggart 1991 and Fernandez. These financial statements are all linked. risk premium and debt ratio (accounting debt ratio)) for each year. In line 4. The inputs include initial costs. The complex model has several modules (See Annex). And this means that losses carried forward are included in the analysis. dividend and inventory “policies”. prices.

3. With this information. the analysis with WACC is inconsistent. All this means that it is not necessary to consider changes in working capital as with other methods. equity from stockholders. These calculations are done fixing ρ for year 0. dividends and tax savings. interest paid. It doesn't matches if the cost of debt after taxes is calculated from CFD after taxes or if taxes are paid next year. A very important feature is the losses carried forward LCF.taking into account the cash cushion. In this model there exists some options: 1. 5 . This is quite important because this means that tax savings are earned when taxes are paid. When tax savings are not earned (for instance. PV(FCF) = PV(CFE) + PV(CFD) does not hold. we calculate in the last part. CFD and the CFE. accounts receivable and payable policies. the FCF is constructed from the Cash Budget balance and deduct all the items related with the financing: loans received and paid. These options are handled with a dummy variable. payout ratios. We present the value calculations for the three WACC approaches presented above. Tables A20 to A33. In the cash budget the dividends paid are included. consistency is obtained. Another features of the model are the presence of an elasticity factor that relates price increase and demand. In all cases it is assumed that taxes are paid at the same year as accrued. These inconsistencies are solved using the Adjusted WACC or TV WACC = ρ – TSt /(Total value at t-1). The possibility to consider inventory. When Adjusted WACC is used. when there are losses) and losses carried forward. the WACC and firm value. As can be observed. the calculations of firm value and the different WACC’s are done when there are losses and LCF and when there are no losses. Table 17 shows the expected WACC and growth beyond year 4. Not all the options are used in the example presented in the Annex. In the complex model. unless you use d(1-T) as the cost of debt after taxes. The cost of debt after taxes is calculated as the IRR for the CFD. Tables A18 and A19 present the cash flow construction. The FCF. etc. To make inflation adjustments 2. To pay taxes the same year as accrued or not. cash cushion. It is calculated just as it is expected it will be in the Cash Budget. is included. To reinvest cash surpluses.

when the market equity value is calculated from the CFE at e. The differences are the same when calculated as Total value less debt. the present value is the same.505. there is a difference of 1. the present value is $48.2. When calculating the Adjusted Present Value APV. where we assume that there are losses. This means a lower WACC. the present value is $48. with the traditional MM WACC. This means a lower WACC. with the HP WACC. The reason the present value with the MM WACC is higher is because the discount rate for the tax shield is d. for the same reasons. which is higher than the previous value by 1. lower than ρ. the losses are carried forward and taxes are paid the same year.8. When calculating the Adjusted Present Value APV. Another reason is the difference in tax savings due to the LCF.3.7.9. The present value of the FCF at the TV WACC (total market value) is $47. When calc ulating the Adjusted Present Value APV. the present value is $32.3. the present value is $47. The present value of CFE at e under TV WACC assumptions is 31.9.9. The reason the present value with the HP WACC is higher is because the difference in tax savings due to the LCF. The results for the second case are summarized in Table 2 Panels A and B. with the HP WACC.275. which is higher than the previous value by 115. The present value of the FCF at the TV WACC (total market value) is $47.5. which is higher than the previous value by 2.1.765.The results for the first case are summarized in Table 1 Panels A and B. which is higher than the previous value by 933.3.225.316.066.250. With the traditional MM WACC. there is a difference of 253.439.176. there is no difference.505. which is higher than the previous value by 1.291. There are also differences when calculating the market equity value. for the same reason.4. The present value of the FCF at the TV WACC (total market value) is $47.1.312.4. The present value of the FCF at the TV WACC (total market value) is $47. The reason the present value with the HP WACC is higher is because the difference in tax savings due to the LCF.9. There are also differences when calculating the market equity value. when the market equity value is calculated from the CFE at e. where we assume that there are no losses and taxes are paid the same year. with the HP WACC. 6 . However. The reason the present value with the MM WACC is higher is because the discount rate for the tax shield is d lower than ρ. for the same reason. there is a difference of 376.4. However. the present value is $33. The differences are the same when calculated as Total value less debt. with the traditional MM WACC. there differences. When calculating the Adjusted Present Value APV.996.3.176.8. The reasons for this difference are the lower value for e (due to the (1-T) factor) and the difference in tax savings due to the LCF.

395. With the traditional MM WACC. which is higher than the previous value by 933.329. 7 .9.there differences.8. the present value is the same. The reasons for this difference are the lower value for e (due to the (1-T) factor) and the difference in tax savings due to the LCF. The present value of CFE at e under TV WACC assumptions is 31.9. with the HP WACC. the present val ue is $32.

Columns (4) and (5) show the absolute and relative difference with the TV WACC.1% 4.4 47.4 253.379. However. Notice the internal consistency of TV WACC. losses carried forward and taxes paid the same year Total market value. this is WACC = eE% + d(1-T)D% where e=ρ+(1-T)(ρ-d)D/E Columns (7) and (8) show the absolute and relative difference with the TV WACC.765. Losses.291. Both of them consider e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E and assume ρ as the correct discount rate for the tax savings.2% 0.3 31.2% 2.4 115.7 Column (1) of Table 1 (panels A and B) shows the name of the procedure to calculate Total or Equity value.2 2.4% 0.8% 7.2 2.066. TV WACC should be used.4% 4. Value calculation (1) With TV With HP WACC (TV WACC WACC = e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E ρ – TS/(Total (3) value) e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E (2) 47.225.1 0.debt Equity value = PV(FCF at ρ) + PV(TS at d) . if precision is desired.115. 8 .debt Equity value = PV(CFE @ e) 31.250.066.2 32.275.066. Columns (2) and (3) show the different values when the Adjusted or TV WACC = ρ – TS/(Total value) and HP WACC = eE% + d(1-T)D%.3 Difference with TV WACC (4) % over TV With MM WACC WACC e= (5) ρ+(1-T)(ρ-d)D/E (6) Difference with TV WACC (7) % over TV WACC (8) Total value PV(FCF @ WACC) Total value PV(CCF=FCF + TS @ ρ) Total value = PV(FCF at ρ) + PV(TS at d) 47.176.4 31.9 0.312. From columns (4) and (5) it can be seen that in this case TV WACC and HP WACC differ. TS.316.3 3.996.489.5 32. In table 2 the traditional WACC (MM WACC) also shows inconsistencies among the different values and between those values and the TV WACC.4 253.996.429.176.2% 32.1 1. Equity market value Value calculation (1) With TV With HP WACC (TV WACC WACC = ρ – e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E TS/(Total (3) value) e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E (2) 31.5 1.5% Table 1 Panel B.181.In summary Table 1 Panel A.debt Equity value = Total value (from CCF at ρ) .312.0% 33. The very small differences between TV WACC and HP WACC might show that for practical purposes HP WACC is a good approximation. losses carried forward and taxes paid the same year Total market value.3 Difference with TV WACC (4) % over TV With MM WACC WACC e= (5) ρ+(1-T)(ρ-d)D/E (6) Difference with TV WACC (7) % over TV WACC (8) Equity value = Total value (from FCF at WACC) .2 115. Column (6) shows the values when calculated with the MM WACC.8% 48.319. Losses.3 47.5 1.9 1.1 1.3 31.5 48.

9 (0. Panels A and B.7 32.8 47. TS.2% 3.0% 47. In Table 1.0) 0.505.8% Difference with TV WACC (7) 933. No losses.395.505.0% 48.8 0.9 % over TV WACC (8) 3.772.395. Both of them consider e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E and assume ρ as the correct discount rate for the tax savings.505.9 (0. taxes paid the same year Value calculation (1) With TV WACC With HP Difference % over TV With MM WACC (TV WACC = ρ – WACC with TV WACC e= TS/(Total value) e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E WACC (5) ρ+(1-T)(ρ-d)D/E (4) e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E (3) (6) (2) 47.0% Column (1) of Table 2.329.0% 31.debt 31. taxes paid the same year With TV WACC With HP Difference % over TV With MM WACC (TV WACC = ρ – WACC with TV WACC e= (5) ρ+(1-T)(ρ-d)D/E TS/(Total value) e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E WACC (4) e=ρ+(ρ-d)D/E (3) (6) (2) Equity value = Total value (from FCF at WACC) 31.9 31.0) 0.395.8 debt Equity value = Total value (from CCF at ρ) .9 (0. taxes paid the same year and it is shown that there is no difference.debt Equity value = PV(CFE at e) 31.505.395.9 % over TV WACC (8) 2.0% 376. Notice the internal consistency of TV WACC and HP WACC. Column (6) shows the values when calculated with the MM WACC.0) 0. 9 . Columns (2) and (3) show the different values when the Adjusted or TV WACC = = ρ – TS/(Total value) and TV WACC = eE% + d(1-T)D% are used.0% 32.882. No losses.9 31.0) 0. In table 2 the traditional WACC (MM WACC) shows inconsistencies among the different values and between those values and the TV WACC.9 1.395.0% Total value = PV(FCF at WACC) Total value = PV(CCF = FCF + TS at ρ) Total value = PV(FCF at ρ) + PV(TS at d) Table 2 Panel B. shows the name of the procedure to calculate Total or Equity value. this is WACC = eE% + d(1-T)D% where e=ρ+(1-T)(ρ-d)D/E Columns (7) and (8) show the absolute and relative difference with the TV WACC.9 47.329.7 376.8 Difference with TV WACC (7) 933.9 0.9 47.84 933.439.9 31.395.9 (0. Columns (4) and (5) show the absolute and relative difference with the TV WACC.0 0.0% Value calculation (1) Equity value = PV(FCF at ρ) +PV(TS at d) .Table 2 Panel A No losses.

3 1.S. Frequently.693.0 31.654.733. 2000. terminal value accounts for more that 50% of the total value of the firm.763.809. The last one. Working Paper.000.176. The equity market values are taken from the calculations made with the TV WACC approach. 1985.9 1.5 2. losses carried forward and taxes paid the same year.0 31.719.2 38.708.9 1.8 67. Equivalence of the Different Cash Flow Valuation Methods.204. the TV WACC.651. Conclusions We have shown three approaches to calculate total and equity value with different expressions for WACC.110.8 39. “Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates – Extensions from the Average-Risk Case ".1 1.7 43. the HP WACC and the TV WACC.8 Table 4.2 24.1 2. The first one produces inconsistent results. They are the MM WACC (the traditional WACC).193.3 2.022. HARRIS . the only one that gives consistent results is TV WACC.9 1. Market and book values ratios Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Book value for equity Market value for equity Market equity value/equity book value Book value for total assets Market total value Market total value/Book value for total assets 24.104.0 47.220.4 26. R.505. Journal of Financial 10 .3 40. The second one is consistent as long as there are no losses and/or losses carried forward.2 63. Market and book values ratios Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Book value for equity Market value for equity Market equity value/equity book val ue Book value for total assets Market total value Market total value/Book value for total assets 24.7 30.4 54.6 55.6 1.1 37. We consider that this is the correct method.2 23.5 54.8 Tables 3 and 4 show the differences in market values when compared with book values.0 1.3 1. Losses.0 47.8 39.125.149.2 38. produces consistent results either with no losses or losses and losses carried forward.721.1 37.8 1. taxes paid the same year.3 40. PABLO. Although not a formal proof.7 71. Bibliographic References FERNÁNDEZ .8 62.534.3 1. AND J.773.000.1 55.8 67. Social Science Research Network.110.7 Year 4 30.7 42.395. PRINGLE.050.1 2.066.Table 3 No losses.4 26.9 71.030. These differences are explained because the financial statements do not consider any terminal value.961. the tables give an idea on how much difference is present when the book values are used. It can be shown that when taxes are paid the following year after accrual.3 1.221.953.J.378.4 1.

Consistent Valuation and Cost of Capital Expressions with Corporate Taxes and Personal Taxes.Research. Financial Management.. 1991. Autumn. Fall. pp8-20 11 . TAGGART . pp 237-244. JR. ROBERT A.

0% Year 3 40.00% 6.62% 6.10% 0. Table A3 Risk free discount rate and risk premium estimates Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Real risk free discount rate Rate of interest for debt Risk premium for debt Effective rate before taxes Annual nominal rate compounded twice a year Effective rate after taxes 10.59% 30.59% 30. Table A2 Market variables Quantity to sell at year t at price given at year 0 Increase in volume 7.0% 40.00% 12.62% 22.0% Year 4 40.55% 22.00% 11.00% 5.00% Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 The purchase price is a function of Q.00% 9.62% 22.247 0.59% 30.95 0.55% 28.ANNEX FINANCIAL ASSESMENT FOR THE CREATION OF A FIRM LOSSES AND LOSSES CARRIED FORWARD (LCF) Table A1 External or macroeconomic variables Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Tax rate Inflation rate 40.0% 9.00% 10. the estimated quantity the market will buy.62% 22.90% 13.00% Year 4 6.00% Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 The quantity and increase in the market might be obtained by a marketing research.64% 12. 12 .00% 10.00% 4.00% 6.59% 28.00% 10.00% 7.00% This information can be estimated based on the behavior of bonds or simply setting the cost of debt from a contract between the firm and the debt holder.55% 28.55% 28. Fisher Theorem is used to compose the three components.00% 30.01% 1. Table A4 Price and increase in price Year 0 Year 1 Purchase price Real price increase Annual increase in purchase price $2.00% 11.82% 1.00% This information can be obtained from macroeconomic forecasts made by the government or associations or universities.00% 10.

30% 12.65% 3.88% 0.000% 13. or simply a subjective forecast.10% 12.93% $160.44% $0. an elasticity function calculated for the domestic water supply was used.30% 11. In the example.00 $0.9978 0.60 0.98% $0.00% $0.11% 11.00 $0.40% 12.00 1.22% Year 3 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 $0.20% 13.00 $0. It is a function of selling price increase. Price increases might be estimated based on historical data of similar firms.67% 10.00% $0.9996 0. Selling price is the result of a market survey and/or the cost structure of the good or service.00 $40.60% Year 3 Year 4 0.00 $145.00 Year 1 $0.9971 0.32% Year 4 $0.20% 11.366*((1+increase in selling price)/(1+inflation)-1)) $5.10% 0.00 $0. Table A6 Costs Year 0 Monthly auditing fees Real price increase Increase in monthly auditing fees Monthly overhead Real price increase Increase in overhead Monthly payroll Administrative payroll Monthly payroll of selling force Real price increase Increase in payroll Sales commissions Fringe benefits and taxes over payroll 56.20% These are stated on a monthly base.70% 9.90% 9.12% $0.00 0. 13 .43% $0.80% 0.00 $0.00 $37.900% 13.00% $0.00 $0.32% 3.00 1.00 1.00% $0.Table A5 Internal variables (endogenous) with some degree of negotiability Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Selling price Real price increase Increase in selling price Elasticity factor.55% 3.00 1.00 1.60% 9. Effect of price change upon demand.00 1.00 1.00 1.10% 10.76% 12.34% 3.9974 The elasticity function has to be found for the specific product or service we are dealing with. (1-.01% Year 2 $0.00 1.00 0.20% 11.

36 Units to be sold are based on the initial market survey.66 7.00% 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% 5.77 3.00% 5.00% 3. Table A10 Selling and purchasing prices Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 7.00 Year 3 8.00% 90.11 Year 4 8.28 3.74 8.000.00% 5.00% 90. Table A8 Forecasts based on Tables A1 to A7 Year 1 Year 2 Units sold (increase plus elasticity effect) S Final inventory in units FI Initial inventory in units II Purchases in units P = S + FI .00% 5.79 Year 3 8.243.00% 10.00% 10.733.000.01 3.53 4.00% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 3.87 674.00% 8.00% 30.II 7.00% 90.000.000.399.096.00 8.66 0.000. Table A9 Depreciation Year 1 Year 2 Annual depreciation Cumulative depreciation 8.00 16.00 Year 4 8.00 7.95 644.33% 8.17 699.74 644.00 32.81 Selling price Buying price 6.000.127.00% 10.33% 95.50 603.00% 95.000.33% 8.93 674.13 8. the increase in volume and the elasticity factor for the product or service. 14 .847.00 This depreciation is based on the lineal method stated above.03 These prices are based on the initial selling and purchasing price and the price increase stated above.00% 10.00% 3.00% 95.00 40.000.00 8.774.000.424.50 8.56 7.00% 110 120 131 160 160 Many variables are just policies or target the firm will pursue.000.33% 24.00% 95.Table A7 Targets and/or operating policies Year 0 Advertising and promotions (% on sales) Equity contribution Fixed assets Depreciation (lineal for 5 years) Final inventory as percent of sales (units) Inventories valued at FIFO Percentage of sales receivedin the same year Percentage of sales receivedin the next year Percentage of payments made the same year as accrued (overhead and suppliers) Percentage of payments made the next year as accrued (overhead and suppliers) Percentage of net profits (dividends) paid to stockholders the year after obtained the net profits Minimum cash balance desired after financing deficits 8.90 603.00 3. The nominal selling price increase defines the elasticity factor.56 7.00% 90.00 24.

20 40.94 220.39 0.989.14 502.541.364.000.00 39.34 1.559.206.45 37.00 2.823.05 1. cash is the same value found in the Cash Budget as cumulative cash balance.583.00 12.38 0.00 16.966.166.726.50 7.28 2.267.393.39 245.00 8.055.00 5.000.61 186.861.20 181.00 0.00 4.16 747.278.00 (46.0 2.000.11 5.110.149.33 3.00 8.00 110.00 16.22 681.25 2.65 1.21 3. In this table they are annualized.000.44 1.000.61 Year 3 2.66 390.312.626.000. Net income 15 .00 24.67% payroll and commissions) Auditing fees Overhead Advertising and promotions These costs are based on the monthly based costs above.00 24.000.80 26.00 4.030.78 24.888.18 8.985.15 629.000.34) 2.813.33 All the financial statements are linked.027.719.64 441.26 692.91 24. 58 2.76 38.35 1.67 1. For instance.178.00 11.21 41.00 16.66 39.00 8.000.00 40.00 (46.34) 23.650.00 2. 63 340.00 16.160.00 32.273.12 24.67 30.95 241.00 24.000.398.654.082.50 15.97 2.00 40.888.000.91 249.00 40.11 2.534.45 2.364.147.22 214.25 1.456.62 3.68 40.110.12 612.00 2.04 40.26 196. Table A12 Balance sheet Year 0 Year 1 Assets Cash Accounts receivable Inventory Fixed assets Cumulative depreciation Net fixed assets Total Liabilities and equity Accounts payable (suppliers) Accounts payable (overhead) Fringe benefits accrued Interest charges accrued Accrued taxes Long term debt Total liabilities Equity Cumulative retained earnings Net income for the year Total net equity Total 24.68 227.293.61 0.31 24.70 490.Annual expenses Table A11 Administrative and selling expenses Year 1 Year 2 2.00 8.30 2.000.37 2.176.626.43 16.35 544.534.00 1.706.70 0.37 159.814.04 1.866.433.000.953.000.22 Year 4 2.000.719.711.574.76 3.81 270.56 564.449.06 2.110.221.03 37.00 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 27.000.030.02 2.78 38.43 37.654.457.88 40.149.48 2.000.16 2.719.000.076.75 2.96 1.890.000.100.95 Administrative payroll Administrative fringe benefits on payroll Sales force payroll Sales commissions Fringe benefits (annual premium 1/12 of payroll) Other fringe benefits (46.766.574.69 40.110.000.41 204.69 41.00 32.

479.600.11 3.68 26.11 2.37 1.000.217. Sales are simply quantity to be sold times the rice.364.574.888.62 22.293.954.149.69 30.67 The figures for the P&L statements are based on the forecasts above.00 1.796.926.931.626. and so on.138.682.340.68 31. Table A13 Profit and losses statement Year 1 Year 2 Sales Cost of goods sold Initial inventory Purchases Final inventory Gross profit Selling and administrative expenses Payroll expenses Annual premium Auditing fees Selling commissions Overhead Depreciation Advertising Earnings before interest and taxes Other expenses (interest expenses) Earnings before taxes Taxes Net profit 45.for the year is the same found in the P&L statement.79 18.70 564.04 33.35 8.755.000.30 1.206.37 27.13 4. In this case.300.723. Items such as taxes will appear in the Balance Sheet in case taxes are paid the following year.574.595.664.57 1.95 15.44 5.265.34) 54.61 2.572.25 1.748.267.76 1.243.393.11 2.52 2.61 7.38 0.65 8.75 1.198.88 37.38 629.788.823.15 2.38 1.20 27.00 3.966.00 24.97 8.00 (46.452.000.24 6.706.00 (46.00 13.05 5.22 10. 16 .32 390.39 502.456.890.00 1.293.000.95 2.00 2.40 19.598.50 441.44 8.00 8.450.04 32.93 33.03 62.80 Year 3 Year 4 71.77 3.669.631.45 2.888. they appear as a cash outflow at the Cash Budget.97 2.150.20 22.16 22.97 1.34) 0.940.63 5.626.738.480.988.003.37 4.89 2.16 21.40 340.149.00 1.34 8.61 692.553. There is no plug.364. etc.982.65 490.31 2.220.988.66 4.22 2.178.38 5.890.286.705.

626.93 24.940.61 1.34 1.65 2.20 53.147.364.509.553.00 0.00 2.115.11 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 1.00 0.705.340.37 1.00 1.100.72 In this table all the cash inflows are registered.27 1.22 2.57 Payments for purchases year 2 27.94 27.982.598.972.00 3.000.00 43.31 62.359.65 390.89 Payments for purchases year 4 33.44 33.988.37 1.76 30.572.149.783.34 2.479.69 71.783.43 43.626.35 2.22 2.081.50 2.67 71.35 40.67 71.888.75 5.793.70 629.02 50. Table A15 Cash budget: Cash outflows Cash outflows Suppliers Payments for purchases year 1 24.71 196.205.79 245.450.436.72 24.664.149.206.589.95 0. It does not include loans income.97 3.205.670.15 Total payments to suppliers Payroll and fringe benefits Annual premium year Auditing fees Commissions on sales Payment of overhead year 1 Payment of overhead year 2 Payment of overhead year 3 Payment of overhead year 4 Advertising Purchase of fixed assets Interest expenses Dividend payments Taxes Total cash outflows 40.702. It takes into account the accounts receivables policy stated above.66 2.421.706.00 1.003.452.50 3.61 0.32 2.228.44 5.02 59.39 30.40 5.504.903.62 56.00 4.273.26 24.966.33 22.37 62.150.457.00 0.39 564. It is a financing decision that will be made with the cash balance below.65 3.480.38 692.115.63 1.64 2.504.210.985.20 53.205.669.456.364.Cash inflows Table A14 Cash budget: Cash inflows Year 0 Year 1 45.00 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Cash collection of sales year 1 Cash collection of sales year 2 Cash collection of sales year 3 Cash collection of sales year 4 Total income accounts receivable Equity in cash Total cash inflows 43.711.888.60 0.44 2.769.689.00 22.95 220.600.000.00 36.25 340.766.220.902.000.16 54.50 6.98 1.30 441.300.20 2.32 27.000.228.45 Payments for purchases year 3 31.72 4.00 1.69 43.595.313.00 680.97 1.31 62.63 17 .32 502.03 68.96 51.

027.71 0.504.06 16.72 (16. 18 .756.50 0.00 0.027.50 0.67 71. It does not include loans payment.00 4.79 8.650. Table 17 Discount and growth rate beyond year 4 Discount rate for cash flows beyond year 4 Growth for year 5 Growth for year 6 and following years 23.000.1 6.783.00 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 24.191.12 31.498. These are.00 40.783.228.000.62 27.50 8.21 This table shows the information from the Cash Budget in order to make the financing decisions.05 14.526.02 50.63 6.43 43.00 4.866.339.205.00 110.31 62.29 12.This table shows all the cash outflows.00 4. Table A16 Financing decision Year 0 Year 1 Total cash inflows Total cash outflows Net cash gain (loss) Cash balance at end of year Bank loans Repayment of loans (principal) Investment of surplus Net cash gain (loss) after financing Cash balance at end of year after financing and reinvestment 110.00 43.00 2. These are included below.000.56 20.027.00) 16.027.59 0. how much should beborrowed and how much can be paid with the available cash.78 12.110.313.783.000.811.10% 0.50 0.00% This table shows the growth and discount rate for determining the terminal value .00 36.55 10.28 5.972.163.20 53.841.62 56.421.00 0.78 9.677.00 0.28 2.893.312.11% 10.00) (16.00 4.813.702.

55 4.39 16.39 This table shows the CFD. In particular.682.50 11. We do not use the approach to calculate FCF from EBIT or net profit because this method increases the probability of errors.79 11.00 0.28 0.5 7.13% 8.00 0.756.78 6.964.783.383.177.00 4.00 0.28 11.756.05 8.097.251.50 96.380.964. the cost before and after taxes calculated as the IRR of the CFD before and after taxes.027. starting from EBIT might introduce errors in the tax paid and the tax savings earned.5 6.881.29 14.Table A18 Construction of Free Cash Flow (FCF) from the Net Cash Gain at the Cash Budget Year 1 Net cash gain (loss) after financing Bank loans Repayment of loans (principal) Interest expenses Tax shield for interest payments Dividends Equity in kind Equity in cash Cash flow without terminal value FCF n+1 = (FCFn (1+Growth rate for n+1) Terminal value Free cash flow after taxes (Plus) (Minus) (Plus) (Plus) (Minus) (Plus) (Minus) (Minus) 2.843.627.29 5. Table A19 Cash Flow to Equity CFE and Cash Flow to Debt Cash flow for stockholder (dividends plus any cash ) Financing cash flow (after tax) CFD Cost of debt as IRR of after tax CFD Financing cash flow (before tax) Cost of debt as IRR of before tax CFD Free cash flow (FCF) Financing cash flow (CFD) Stockholder's cash flow (CFE) Check: CFD + CFE =FCF Year 1 2.59 0.477.300.00 680.027.50 5. the CFE.60 0.5 17.05 4.78 11.383.50 8.79 0.55% 11.783.783.450.50 3.00 0.78 8.00 4.50 14.251.717.717.881.498.163.89 14.407.756.13 (Plus) 79.50 28.027.00 1.39 96.769.097.28 Year 2 5.78 11.34 1.00) 0. 19 .69 18.50 91.50 2.00 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 8.29 14.00) 0.00 0.627.00 (920.55 10.150.36 11.881.50 4. Cost of debt is assumed constant.50 4.881.00 4.79 Year 3 8.50 2.00 Year 2 5.00 11.55 96.251.327.407.00 0.251.682.682.553.912.00 (1.383.600.05 The FCF is calculated from the Cash Budget.464.843.627.027.29 6.39 5.89 Year 4 91.5 5.00) (460.383.

600.027.142.450.50 5.300.261.00 40.00 24. we present the TV WACC approach.150.027.220.50 6. Table A21 TV WACC and market value calculations Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 WACC after taxes = ρ .13% 0. we determine how much TS is earned according to the financial situation of the firm.39 4.90% 25.383.477.65% 25.3732 14.50 460.18% 35.00% 28.00 1.50 1.763.05 20 .763.30 Year 3 Year 4 36.110.00 4.00% 28.85 36.110.177.78 54.327. With the TV WACC approach.13% 0. It has to be remembered that there exists circularity and this is the result of iterations done by the spreadsheet.30 15.55% 37.027.00% 28.50 0 3.055.34 11.00 4.55% 38.50 8. Table A22 Capital Cash Flow and market value calculations at ρ Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Capital cash flow (CCF = FCF + TS) Total value 47. Table A20 Basic information for TV WACC calculations Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Tax rate Cost of debt before taxes Given nominal ρ year 1 and assuming constant risk Real ρ (deflated) Discount factor at ρ FCF Debt (balance) Initial Equity contribution (book value) Initial investment (fixed assets plus cash) Interest payments Debt payment Cash flow to debt before taxes Tax savings (TS = TdD) 16.881.00 40.13% 0.75% 71.15% 47.61 In table the resulting WACC and market values are shown.7135 11.000.082.29 62.171.251. First.027.00% 28.00 4.15% 25.733.733.00 2.55% 36.50 7.50 40.176.027.40% 25.38% 62.176.50 920.50 Year 4 40.85 13.2736 96. We do not calculate the TS straightforward with the formula TdD.00 40.34 54.5137 11.39 71.The next tables show the calculation of market values and the three different approaches to calculate WACC.380.TS/Total value at t-1 Market Total Value at t @ WACC 40.05 This information is common for the three methods.55% 40.00 4. except for the tax savings TS.61 Year 4 97.627. TS are calculated in an explicit way.00 4.29 8.682.13% 0.78 12.383. This is.220.

651.110.027.55% 37.00 4.22 1.39 4.25 70.50 40.05 This information is common for the three methods.998.881.783. Table A25 Basic information for HP WACC calculations Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Tax rate Cost of debt before taxes Given nominal ρ year 1 and assuming constant risk Real ρ (deflated) Discount factor at ρ FCF Debt (balance) Initial Equity contribution (book value) Initial investment (fixed assets plus cash) Interest payments Debt payment Cash flow to debt before taxes Tax savings (TS = TdD) 16.00 3.39 Year 4 337.13% 0.055.082.5137 11.627.082.840.11 53.73 1.00 40.29 8.00 4.Capital cash flow is defined as CCF = FCF + TS. TS are calculated in an explicit 21 .50 920.964.998.00 24.36 Capital cash flow and APV with the TS discounted at ρ.50 1.87% 91.843.450.12 61.78 12.13% 0.13% 0. It has to be remembered that there exists circularity and this is the result of iterations done by the spreadsheet.027.327.027. Table 24 CFE.176.682.99% 8.883.066.55% 38.00 1.000.50 Year 4 40. are the same.00% 28.22 1.65% 25.11 47.00% 28.40% 25.00 40.193.91 913.11 In table the resulting e and equity market values are shown.34 45.50 1.35 38.027.600.300.177.34 41.150.477.16% 2.55 67. e and market value of equity calculation with CFE at e Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 e=ρ +(ρ -d)D/E CFE=FCF+TS-CFD PV(CFE at e) 46.50 460.00 4.00% 28.651.380.756.7135 11.383.79 42.50 5.55% 40.50 8.178.30 36. In the following tables the HP WACC approach is presented.3732 14. except for the tax savings TS.15% 25.55% 36. With the TV WACC approach.00 4.83% 5.849.027.178.50 6.00 2.00 40.90% 25.00% 28.2736 96.251.00 4.110.89 54. In this table the market value is calculated directly with the CCF and ρ.13% 0. Table A23 APV and market value calculations Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 PV(FCF at ρ ) PV(TS at ρ ) Total 45.50 7.28 31.708.

94 77.939.62% 7.28% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 In table the resulting WACC and market values are shown.490.489.88% 32.96% 36.220. This is.47 65.33% 36.9% 71.08% 39.78 48.93% 46.62% 2.62% 5.39 62.07% 22.058.92% 5.78% 36.223.91 913.490. The HP WACC is calculated based on the contribution of each: the debt and the equity. we determine how much TS is earned according to the financial situation of the firm.99 48.22 13.14% 30.291. Table A28 APV and market value calculations Year 0 PV(FCF at ρ ) PV(TS at ρ ) Total 45.25 Capital cash flow and APV with the TS discounted at ρ.763.60% 41.45 94. are the same.324.1% 53.30 97.22 2.142.733. Table A26 HP WACC and market value calculation at HP WACC Year 0 ρ known Year 0 Debt Weight for Debt D% After tax cost of debt Contribution of debt to WACC Equity Weight for Equity E% et =ρ t + (ρ t – d)Dt -1/Et -1 Contribution of equity to WACC WACC after taxes Market Value at t @ WACC 47.651.00% 33.50% 37.way.40% 22.883.6% 62.62% 1.082.36 337. 22 . In this case we calculate the TS straightforward with the formula TdD.22 Year 1 45.39 Year 4 70.11 87.22 2.05 71.12 Year 3 61.171.67% 22. In this table the market value is calculated directly with the CCF and ρ.998.87% 34.849.489.85 15.71% 22.42% 38.29 54.92% 22.1% 34.07% 12.61 Capital cash flow is defined as CCF = FCF + TS. Table A27 Capital Cash Flow and market value calculations at ρ Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Capital Cash Flow (CCF = FCF + TS) Total value 13.73 1.99 Year 2 53. It has to be remembered that there exists circularity and this is the result of iterations done by the spreadsheet.261.998.

477.55 67.00 24.50 1.00 1.7135 11.36 Year 3 8.29 8.316.00 40.110.00% 28.027.50 460.55% 36.50 6.89 54.63 Year 4 91.00 40.027.50 5.55 In table the resulting e and equity market values are shown.682.55% 37.150.00 4.703.00% 28.00 3.000.627.50 920.631.50 Year 4 40.600.5137 11.55% 38.39 4.Table 29 CFE. Now.055.00% 28.450.327.383.00 4.840.00 4.50 40.78 12.90% 25. except for the tax savings TS.50 1.13% 0.2736 96. TS are calculated in an explicit way.027.964.177. This is.316.082.027. the MM WACC approach is presented.380.00% 28. In this case we calculate the TS straightforward with the formula TdD.843. 23 . It has to be remembered that there exists circularity and this is the result of iterations done by the spreadsheet.55% 40.251. With the TV WACC approach.05 This information is common for the three methods.00 4.783.027.28 32.192. Table A30 Basic information for MM WACC calculations Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Tax rate Cost of debt before taxes Given nominal ρ year 1 and assuming constant risk Real ρ (deflated) Discount factor at ρ FCF Debt (balance) Initial Equity contribution (book value) Initial investment (fixed assets plus cash) Interest payments Debt payment Cash flow to debt before taxes Tax savings (TS = TdD) 16.43 Year 2 5.13% 0.3732 14.110.15% 25.40% 25. we determine how much TS is earned according to the financial situation of the firm.65% 25.00 40.50 8.00 4.13% 0. and market value of equity calculation with CFE at e Year 0 CFE=FCF+TS-CFD PV(CFE at e) 32.50 7.13% 0.79 42.00 2.881.596.43 Year 1 4.300.

04 Year 3 8.34% 36.596.02% 12.68% 34.55 67.66% 22.604.4 357.964. The FCF is discounted at ρ and the TS is discounted at d.40 In table the resulting e and equity market values are shown.06% 36.073.62% 2.225.65% 36.9% 33. Table A32 APV and market value calculations Year 0 PV(FCF at ρ ) PV(TS at d) Total 45.28% Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 In table the resulting WACC and market values are shown.13% 38.08 94. Table 33 CFE.883.431. 24 . the CCF does not have any meaning.9 715.501.72 Year 2 5.62% 1.27 87.849.3 47.082.843.60% 35.151.8 In this case.67% 31.429.28 33.5 Year 3 61.6% 54.59 77.783.83% 40.4% 71.59% 43.201.51% 36.87% 22.985.89 54.998.62% 7. and market value of equity calculation with CFE at e Year 0 CFE=FCF+TS-CFD PV(CFE at e) Year 1 4.431.64% 29.62% 5.7% 62.5 Year 1 45. It has to be remembered that there exists circularity and this is the result of iterations done by the spreadsheet.2 1.66 Year 4 91. The HP WACC is calculated based on the contribution of each: the debt and the equity.41 66. It has to be remembered that there exists circularity and this is the result of iterations done by the spreadsheet.41% 22.56% 22.285.79 43.45% 33.17% 22.998.Table A31 MM WACC and market value calculations Year 0 ρ known Year 0 WACC calculations Debt Weight for Debt D% After tax cost of debt Contribution of debt to WACC Equity Weight for Equity E% et =ρ t + (1-T)(ρ t – d)Dt -1/Et -1 Contribution of equity to WACC WACC after taxes Market Value at t @ WACC 48.275.7 Year 4 70.7 1.3 Year 2 53.2 1.91% 5.

- Lea e imprima sin anuncios
- Download to keep your version
- Edit, email or read offline

Are you sure?

This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?

CANCEL

OK

You've been reading!

NO, THANKS

OK

scribd