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The UK e-learning market 2009
David Patterson, Glynn Jung and Gill Broadhead
The UK e-learning Market 1
© Learning Light Limited 2009
Contents I Forward by Creativesheffield ...................................................................... 4 II About Learning Light ................................................................................... 5 III Acknowledgements and thanks................................................................. 9 1. Introduction ............................................................................................... 16 1.1 background to the report................................................................... 16 2. Executive Summary ................................................................................. 17 3. What is e-Learning?................................................................................... 19 3.1 e-learning - definitions .......................................................................... 19 3.1.1 e-learning components .................................................................. 19 3.1.2 e-learning, e-publishing and learning tools .................................... 21 3.2 How e-learning is flowering .................................................................. 22 4.0 Players in the UK e-Learning market .................................................... 23 4.1 “Movers and Shakers” 2007 ................................................................. 23 4.1.2 UK’s e-Learning players................................................................. 24 4.1.3 Note on UK e-learning consultancies............................................. 24 Table 1 Large companies active in UK with e-learning as a non-core activity .................................................................................................... 24 Table 2 Companies active in the UK wholly or primarily engaged in eLearning.................................................................................................. 25 Table 3: Looking back to the Epic UK Marketplace survey (2007).......... 27 Table 4 Interviews and other news: ........................................................ 29 News and views on who’s doing what .................................................... 29 4.1.3. Consolidations, Mergers & Outsourcing ........................................... 30 5.0 The Survey interviews............................................................................ 33 5.1 Market Trends ...................................................................................... 33 5.1.1 Continuing growth…? .................................................................... 33 5.1.2 Signs of a Slowdown...................................................................... 34 5.1.3 Importance of the public sector...................................................... 35 5.1.4 Where is business coming from..................................................... 36 5.1.5 Where are the threats .................................................................... 36 5.2 Technology Trends............................................................................... 37 5.2.1 The impact of open source ............................................................ 37 5.2.2 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0................................................................... 38 5.2.3 Social networking and e-learning................................................... 39 5.2.4 Future technology trends ............................................................... 40 5.3 Future Industry Trends ......................................................................... 41 5.3.1 New business models .................................................................... 41 5.3.2 Industry structure – mergers, acquisitions and liquidations............ 42 5.3.3 Skill Shortages............................................................................... 43 6. 6. Trends in the market .............................................................................. 45 6.1 That was then: the Hambrecht report 2000 .......................................... 45 6.2 This is now: the 2008 CIPD survey on e-learning................................. 45 6.2.1 Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor ................................................................................................................ 46 7. Role of large corporate suppliers ............................................................... 47 8. The size of the UK market ......................................................................... 49
The UK e-learning Market 2 © Learning Light Limited 2009
8.1 A forecasting model.............................................................................. 49 8.1.1 background to the forecast ............................................................ 49 8.1.2 The Market in 2006 ........................................................................ 50 8.1.3 Adoption levels .............................................................................. 50 8.1.4 Percentage of training budgets ...................................................... 50 8.1.5 Continued growth........................................................................... 51 8.1.6 2009 doom or gloom ...................................................................... 51 8.1.7 Higher and higher .......................................................................... 52 8.1.8 Can we be confident in this forecast of continued growth? ............ 53 8.1.9 How does the UK compare with Europe ........................................ 53 8.1.10 A US perspective ....................................................................... 54 8.2 Sizing the market - summary................................................................ 54 9.0. Industry Trends ....................................................................................... 55 9.1. Trends in learning platforms – more competition and more choice.. 55 9.1.2 Moodle ........................................................................................... 55 9.1.3 Moodle Plug Ins ............................................................................. 56 9.1.4 Software as a Service (SaaS)........................................................ 56 9.2. Content – How you use content is now King ................................... 57 9.2.1 Generic content:........................................................................... 57 9.2.2 e-reference systems and Academies............................................. 57 9.3 Bespoke content – tougher price climate = more innovation ........... 58 9.4 Gaming and learning......................................................................... 59 9.5 Rapid Development – threat or opportunity ...................................... 59 9.6 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0 – Social networking and Informal learning . 60 9.7 Mobile, Handheld, Portable or…..? ................................................... 60 9.8 e-assessment ....................................................................................... 61 10.0 Drivers of growth.................................................................................... 61 10.1 Compliance 2.0 .................................................................................. 61 10.2 Lifestyle learning............................................................................... 62 10.3 The training industry gets e-learning. ................................................. 62 10.4 The ROI model can make sense and delivers much more learner impact......................................................................................................... 63 10.4.1 The e is for environmental ........................................................... 63 10.6 e–Learning 2.0 into the Small and Medium enterprise ....................... 64 10.7 Marketing moves into the e-learning market....................................... 64 10.8. Services ........................................................................................ 64 10.8.1 Consultancy: a cottage industry? ................................................. 64 Appendices .................................................................................................... 66 Appendix A - The 2008 CIPD review of e-Learning.................................... 66 The CIPD report on e-Learning (2008) - summary ................................. 66 Appendix B – Donald H Taylor response to CIPD Report ......................... 68 Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. Taylor ...... 68 Appendix D – expert predictions for 2009 - eLearn Magazine.................... 71 Appendix E Readers’ responses to “Expert” predictions ............................ 77 Appendix F How did they do last year? Seb Schmoller reviews 2008’ expert predictions.................................................................................................. 79
The UK e-learning Market 3
© Learning Light Limited 2009
I Forward by Creativesheffield
Creativesheffield is pleased to be supporting the publication of this important report. As the report demonstrates, the global market for e-learning content is growing at a rapid rate as both large and small businesses and educational institutions are seeking to deliver their learning in a smarter and more cost effective way. Much of this is enabled by advances in digital and new media applications and through the deployment of new technologies. The digital and new media industries in the Sheffield region are growing at a faster rate than anywhere else in the UK in terms of specialist companies and new jobs. This is due in no small part to the significant cluster of e-learning businesses in the city which have made Sheffield the UK centre for such activity. The city is home to one of the largest applied e-learning services organisations in the world; Ufi learndirect, as well as a breadth of companies covering the full spectrum of e-learning solutions and online information services. Sheffield is also home to Learning Light who have become a recognised centre of excellence in the use of e-learning and Learning Technologies and helped to further accelerate the growth of the already substantial e-learning sector in the city. This growth has been assisted by the arrival this year of the first phase of the Sheffield Digital Campus, a 600,000 sq ft development in the city centre specifically designed for digital and technology businesses. The sector will also benefit from the Digital Region, a high profile £100m pilot project that will be completed in 2012, to roll out next generation broadband across Sheffield and South Yorkshire.
James Wilson Investment Manager Creativesheffield T: E: +44 (0)114 223 2345 email@example.com
The UK e-learning Market 4
© Learning Light Limited 2009
Miguel Baptista Nunes. School of Education. Learning Light operates www. The UK e-learning Market 5 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Department of Information Studies.uk one of the leading resources on e-learning in the UK. our most recent joint publication is: “The Use of e-Learning in the Workplace: A Systematic Literature Review” by Maggie McPherson. Learning Light is supported by Yorkshire Forward.e-learningcentre. Learning Light.II About Learning Light Learning Light is a centre of excellence in the use of e-learning and learning technologies in the workplace. University of Sheffield and David Patterson. Our knowledge base contains over 400 papers offering insights & advice on how to utilise e-learning & learning technologies. the regional development agency for Yorkshire and the Humber. University of Leeds.co. in conjunction with the University of Sheffield. We have undertaken a Systematic Literature Review of the available papers on the effective use of elearning. Learning Light works closely with both the University of Leeds & Sheffield.
He has worked for Learning Light for four years. where he provided business development advice and investment support to e-learning and learning technologies businesses across Yorkshire. including strategy and planning. sparking his interest in elearning. David has maintained a close link with the university and utilises the network to continue his research interest in elearning and information systems. sales and marketing and supporting change programmes in the food distribution industry.The Authors David Patterson David Patterson gained 20 year's general managerial experience. before enrolling at the University of Sheffield to study for a MSc in information systems. The UK e-learning Market 6 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .
He also leads blended learning development projects for commercial and non-commercial. Head of SAP Business Unit and finally head of special projects outside the USA. Learning Leadership works in public. variously. to his most recent market research and learning strategy projects in Europe. From his early days (1972) in training at IBM’s Research Labs.Glynn Jung and Learning Leadership Glynn Jung is widely known across the UK and North America in both Learning and Development and Technology Enabled Learning circles. health and the community. Learning Leadership is a small organisation formed by Glynn in 2003 after nearly 19 years with Thomson NETg as. report and advise on specific learning issues and develop strategies in business. with improved diagnostics to pinpoint priorities and focus energies in learning. using technology when appropriate. In 2003 Glynn started to develop new ways of achieving improved performance and working relationships. Now part of a virtual network of small organisations which Glynn has brought together. where he worked with mainframe CBT blended with books and U-Matic videotapes. including in the fields learning strategies. most recently an interactive-video programme on subconscious bias conducting appraisals The UK e-learning Market 7 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . private and third sectors. Glynn is regularly commissioned by organisations to research. relentless change and resilience. Head of Consulting. Middle East and North America… he’s been around a bit. Projects scaled from 245000 learners in 87 countries to 20 teachers in a primary school. team-repair and managerial coaching.
000 operational employees. The programme was designed to meet the needs of the business and establish a flexible workforce with career development opportunities. In addition. for more than 15 years. The UK e-learning Market 8 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Previously as learning and development consultant for the royal mail she assumed a lead role in the design of core skills learning pathways to support people development and enhance the performance of 164. her projects included the development of an on-line regulatory compliance programme for more than 1000 customer facing employees to assist the transfer of knowledge and best practice into the workplace to meet business critical timescales.Gill Broadhead Gill Broadhead has specialised in learning & development programme design and implementation that optimises learning technologies. Prior to this she was training manager for BT where she was responsible for designing people development and engagement programmes to align to business and training need for specific business operational units.
most importantly our thanks go to the following companies and individuals we were able to interview for this research report. MD BTL Bob Gomersall . assessment. We provide a turnkey service for the design. Maureen Murphy. education. http://www.com Assessment21 offers a genuine 21st century approach to assessment and marking .com BTL Group Ltd provides technology solutions for e-Assessment and eLearning. The UK e-learning Market 9 © Learning Light Limited 2009 Aurion Learning Dr.III Acknowledgements and thanks We would wish to extend our thanks to Yorkshire Forward. Maureen Murphy. But.btl. Company Assessment 21 Interviewee Gerard Lennox Web site and About http://www. (CPD).aurionlearning.com Aurion Learning is an award-winning educational design company founded by the current Managing Director. courseware and accreditation tools. http://www. Dr. scripting and production of learning packages. Aurion Learning designs interactive and motivational online learning programmes and learning support tools including online continuous professional development. Aurion Learning has a strong track record in the public sector. including components such as needs analysis.taking e-assessment way beyond multiple choice and lower learning levels. health and central government as well as the private and Voluntary & Charity sectors. We provide both the on-screen assessment content and the delivery systems and services.assessment21. portfolio kits. 360 degree assessment and performance management. Sheffield Chamber of Commerce and Sero Consulting who have all supported Learning Light and especially to Creativesheffield for their support and sponsorship of this report.
e2train Rob Caul eOrigin Mike Mulvihill The UK e-learning Market 10 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .uk Since 1998 we have been creating innovative and exciting digital learning experiences. After all. educate and. http://www. rich-media will get the point across instantly. http://www. We’ve found that compromise is not the answer.com/ eOrigen is a leading producer of high quality media-based training and communication programmes. Used correctly.co. We blend entertainment and education. learning and play. hearing and interacting. we have been delivering award-winning learning and performance technology solutions since 1995 to an enviable portfolio of customers across a diverse range of business sectors that have all benefited from our experience and expertise. empower people. We bring the best of new media to learning. We’ve been designing training for many years so we understand what makes good learning – the focus must be the user.eorigen. Video can show how things need to be done or bring high drama to a dull procedure. People absorb information by seeing.e2train is a proven and reliable supplier to both the public sector and blue chip private sector corporations. today’s media literate audience can’t be expected to deal with anything that’s not immediate and memorable. We make digital learning materials to support formal education in schools and colleges as well as informal learning experiences.DESQ David Squire www. most importantly.desq. Working collaboratively with clients we develop exceptional solutions that entertain. e2train team has had a solid track record in delivering both off-the-shelf and bespoke learning systems.e2train.com Based in Cirencester (UK).
uk Since 1986 we’ve developed over 5. manage and distribute online learning on any subject matter.futurate.fisconline. http://www. Intellego is an AIM listed PLC headquartered in Teddington with a Fisc David Smith Futurate Jonathan Grove i-education Michael Wilkinson Intellego Andy Green The UK e-learning Market 11 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . usability and technical web standards.uk Intellego Group is a learning and compliance solutions specialist. http://www.co. retail and financial services markets. personal revision and assessment system which uses games based learning to make revision fun and interactive.com We collaborate with our clients to craft high impact print and mission critical websites and software.uk The FISC E-Learningonline™ platform allows companies of any size to create.epic. I am Learning can be used stand alone or will integrate with your Learning Platform.co. easily and inexpensively.i-ed. http://www.co. And our passion for elearning design is endorsed by over 50 industry awards. e-Learning. and we apply our expertise to producing effective digital strategy.co. Intellego works with organisations to solve challenges in the following areas: 1) Learning infrastructure 2) Performance improvement and 3) Compliance management. http://www.intellego.000 hours of e-learning carefully tailored to each client’s needs. With domain expertise across the healthcare.Epic Tracy CapaldiDrewett http://www.am Learning is a CURRICULUM ONLINE APPROVED. providing ready-made curriculum linked revision and assessment material instantly in your VLE.shtml i. quickly.uk/iamlearning.
myknowledgemap. to 20 hour custom solutions. high levels of technical competence and a wealth of experience in all areas of e-learning. These range from 20 minute rapid e-learning modules delivered in days. We're committed to helping our clients succeed with their performance and learning goals. We have run trans-national projects. through content development to full technical implementation. and developed complex systems for Universities. We help our clients develop their business case for it. and then deliver everything from design.co.co.com/ MyKnowledgeMap today has a wideranging set of interests. We're passionate about new technology and how it can enhance learning and performance. http://www. http://www. http://www. building on their existing infrastructures. blended learning © Learning Light Limited 2009 12 LINE Steve Ash Communications My Knowledge Map Rob Arnsten Peakdean Peter Ross The UK e-learning Market .peakdean. covering all aspects of learning technology. and from hosted online learning portals to capability building with internal teams. We deliver learning solutions for some of the world's leading organisations. and formed development partnerships in Eastern Europe. We've got the design and delivery experience to make things happen fast.line. We have worked as the lead partner on national NHS infrastructure projects.com/ We bring fresh thinking and innovation to deliver high quality e-learning that starts with great design and follows through to successful delivery.kineo. http://www.Kineo Steve Rayson creative team based in Newcastle.uk/ We have been delivering interactive learning and communications since 1989.uk/ Peakdean Interactive offers unrivalled expertise. helped to support many of the UK's Sector Skills Councils and National Skills Academies.
uk/ Using our creativity and experience we design custom e-learning modules that benefit your learners and your organisation.realprojects. http://www. Without question.pixelearning. academic.Pixelearning Kevin Corti solution development and performance support. business education and marketing communications.com PTK Training is a learning and development organisation. http://www. http://www. challenging and exciting learning.safaribooksonline.com Today Safari Books Online offers a depth and breadth of technical content that no other electronic reference resource comes close to matching. Working with your content we can help to design and develop your e-learning modules and deploy them quickly. Safari is fast changing the way that corporate. and training organisations PTK Training Patrick Fitzpatrick Real Projects Scott Hewitt Safari on-line Martin Collinson The UK e-learning Market 13 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Working with your content experts we discuss the options that are available to create compelling and creative e-learning solutions. If you have existing training material such as PowerPoint slides we can quickly and effectively transform your content. successfully delivering bespoke e-learning and instructor learning solutions to both the private and public sector.com/ PIXELearning is a world-leading provider of immersive learning simulations and 'Serious Games' for organisational learning and development. Safari Books Online has become the trusted search for technology information. By identifying the critical needs of your business and the infrastructure / logistics in place our approach enables us to achieve significant results for you http://www.co. We believe in delivering high interactive.ptktraining.
Scotland and Northern Ireland. Wales. We are well placed to deliver the full range of ICT.webanywhere. Virtual College has developed into one of the UK's leading providers of total solutions within the e-learning arena. extends to actual programme/qualification delivery resulting in a unique blended delivery solution. government. http://www.com SkillSoft is a leading provider of e-learning and performance support solutions for global enterprises. SkillSoft enables business organisations to maximise business performance through a combination of comprehensive e-learning content. unlike many other e-learning providers. This total solution embraces all aspects of the learning experience and. http://www. we are always up to date with the latest Internet trends and developments.co. As a leading edge technology focused company.uk Founded in 1995. online information resources. including full Virtual College Bob Gomersall Webanywhere Sean Gilligan The UK e-learning Market 14 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . http://www.co.skillsoft. flexible learning technologies and support services. The knowledge and experience that this delivery provides helps ensure that we strive to continually improve the solution.uk WebAnywhere Ltd has been established for over seven years and provides innovative website and multimedia solutions to schools in England. The company has developed a comprehensive product range focused specifically on helping businesses improve their performance through the adoption of new ways of learning. education and small to medium-sized businesses. Our key objective has been to help enhance the traditional learning solution through the careful integration of technology.Skillsoft Kevin Young access information.virtual-college.
co. Our products engage.theworkshop. plus fun. We have the skills and experience in-house to develop learning solutions in all media. enthuse and inspire learners and deliver accredited qualifications. such as radio podcasting and video – 'vodcasting'. Xoolon Martin Spence The opinions and analysis put forward in this report are those of the authors alone.xoolon. The UK e-learning Market 15 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . The Workshop Mark Pearce http://www. nursery and special educational needs establishments. As well as web design and content management services.training for your staff. http://www.uk We design and develop world-class. interactive technology. secondary. Each school has access to their own internally editable PE website enabling communication and assessment around sport and fitness. clubs. Since 2002.com/ Xoolon is an online interactive sports community bringing together schools. innovative learning solutions that create tangible business results. associations and governing bodies within the sporting industry. pupil eRegistration and Google Analytics. and are world leaders in e-learning and accessibility issues. we have dealt with primary. pupils. such as surveys. we offer a wide range of additional products.
gaming. The Report has since become our mostly frequently visited and downloaded resource but the rapid rate of change in our industry means we need to be able to respond to the increasing requests for advice and information received by Learning Light with a new. In addition to our own experience and expertise within Learning Light we’ve drawn on independent sources. UK industry leaders and niche players) o Game Based Learning (GBL) practitioners An important part of the process of information gathering and interpretation has been a series of interviews with organisations engaged in the e-learning market. Learning Leadership and other industry watchers. Introduction 1. what’s available and where e-learning services and products are going. but we have necessarily updated the content to reflect the changes and trends within both the industry and the UK marketplace. We also comment on the convergence of technologies and design techniques for business. comprehensive Report.co. industry SIGs and research bodies o Training Outsourcing Inc.. .1 background to the report In January 2007 Learning Light commissioned a briefing paper on the e-Learning market in the UK. learning and assessment. we include some analysis of public sector procurement patterns derived from the Learning Light Market Intelligence and Tender Information Service.uk . The focus of the new report is similar to that in 2006. Towards Maturity. The UK e-learning Market 16 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . We particularly seek to offer positive suggestions for both commercial opportunities and for how e-learning can deliver rapid ROI and performance improvements to organisations and communities in these turbulent times.e-learningcentre. o BECTA. e-skills. We also include Appendices including the latest CIPD survey of e-learning and pundits’ prophecies for 2009 and beyond some comments on the accuracy (or otherwise) of earlier prophecies. “UK e-Learning Report” which we posted on our e-Learning Centre website www. Bersin.1. Our goal has been to provide both suppliers and purchasers with an understanding of what’s possible. DCKTN and The Digital Britain 2009 Strategy. including: o Seb Schmoller. from micro-businesses developing innovative technologies to established major service and product suppliers in the UK. entertainment. Finally.
The financial modeling and third party research all correlated in a robustly positive trend of continued and significant growth for the UK e-learning industry. It is from this original report that our analysis begins. The UK e-learning Market 17 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . The interviews also sought to understand the dynamics of the industry as it saw itself. and growth rates forecast of between 6. its ability to change and adapt to new technologies and business models and its views of the likely structure of the industry in years to come. and a synopsis in the short version.2.7% and 8%. The edited narrative of the interviews is included in an appendix with the full version of the report. It is from this that we put forward our proposition that the UK e-learning and learning technology industry is indeed flowering! We spend the next sections setting out the evidence that we believe underpins this proposition. with over 24 companies spread across the UK. This series of semi structured interviews were conducted over 2 months in 2009. we begin by updating John Helmer’s work with “what is going on” in the industry and draw some historical comparisons with other reports. The principal finding is that the UK e-learning industry remains robustly positive in its view of the market and the prospect for continuing growth. Executive Summary This report is designed to offer an overview of what we believe is the present state of the UK’s e-learning and learning technologies industry. such as Epic’s market report. However. We have drawn on our own financial modeling. The market size estimates varying between £300 million to £450 million. We begin by offering a brief model of what we believe is the present working definition of what is meant by e-learning and learning technologies. This report began as a simple attempt to update the report written by John Helmer on behalf of Learning Light valuing the UK e-learning industry. In truth we can now offer a “tri –angulation” of what we believe the market size to be and the likely growth potential. but one we have significantly developed by both interviewing a number of leading players (vendors) in the industry to ask their view of the market and by further seeking to quantify the market size. the on-going and valuable work of John Helmer and other research made available to us to assess the size of the market. and we are indebted to Michael Allen for his definition and illustrations.
There is no doubt that companies will come and go. Sheffield and Brighton are set fair to weather the economic downturn. but that there are other factors are at work. We can only reflect the optimism and confidence. and other research and opinion gathered. both technologies and market drivers which we believe will underpin this growth. One key factor highlighted is the role of marketing departments in commissioning learning to support customers. resulting in undoubted downward price pressure and cuts in training budgets and public sector projects we believe that the UK’s e-learning industry.m. This is illustrated in how the UK’s e-learning industry has adopted gaming and immersive learning scenarios.0 and Social networking than the IT industry and is on the cusp of delivering true “portable flexible learning” – or as we search for another cool term . and its two principle hubs. Despite the difficult times. and secondly the adeptness with which the UK e-learning industry is adopting and exploiting new mediums of delivering learning is crucial to the industries growth trajectory.Finally we present a set of trends. just as they did in easier times. the innovation and enthusiasm and the e-learning industries undoubted focus on delivering the right learning for the individual and organisation that so characterised our research findings.0! It is the fascination of both the learning and development community and the marketeers particularly with social networking that bodes so well for the e-learning industry. again based on our interviews with the companies. The UK e-learning Market 18 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Our premise being that this industry “flowering” is based not just on organic growth as more and more companies seek to utilize e-learning and learning technologies – though we do highlight that training companies (sometimes a little unfairly seen as the enemy of e-learning in the UK!) and more medium sized enterprises are adopting e-learning. rapid development tools and is perhaps more expert in its adoption of Web 2.learning 2.
3. “Tele-learning” and still the quite widely used expression “on-line learning”. Others are not. we have also seen “Computer Mediated Learning” used as a term.1 e-learning . In attempting to answer this we have turned to Michael Allen and his work “Creating Successful e-learning” (Pfeifer 2006) as a starting point. What is e-Learning? What is e-learning? There are many terms and definitions applied to this particular genre of learning. We have used e-learning and learning technologies as our principle terms of descriptive reference.definitions Allen describes or defines e-learning like this: “The term e-learning applies to the broad range of ways computing and communication technologies can be used for teaching and learning.” He does add – “Some uses are effective – magnificently so. Increasingly we see the term “Computer Enhanced Learning”. 3.1 e-learning components Allen then seeks to illustrate the components referred to as below: The UK e-learning Market 19 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .1. Previous terminologies used have included “Computer Based Training” (CBT).” 3.
Allen proceeds to offer a second definition to overcome the issues around just simple presentation of content. and provides the following definition: “e-learning is delivery of carefully constructed instructional events through computing technologies.” This Allen argues is a more useful definition as it excludes simple communication. unless they are used in a context configured for learning. Accordingly we present two more diagrams seeking to define and conceptualise e-learning. firstly a slightly amended version of Allen’s to support the use of communication and publishing of e-learning: The UK e-learning Market 20 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .
1. e-publishing and learning tools And secondly.2 e-learning. and in the light of the interviews undertaken with twenty plus e-learning companies we feel that The UK e-learning Market 21 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .3. in the view of the reports authors.
well.below we illustrate how e-learning is evolving – indeed flowering. below is a The UK e-learning Market 22 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .2 How e-learning is flowering How e-learning is flowering (Based Michael Allen’s model) Learning devices Learning resources e-learning 2.0 Can all of this flowering really have happened in two years. This model seeks to build and illustrate for the purposes of this report the whole fragrant flower that e-learning and learning technologies is. 3.
0 Indeed 2009 saw the publication of e-learning 2. will it be learning devices and mobile learning. The big question is what are the next petals to be added to the e-learning flower! The challenge and purpose of this report is to understand the e-learning market and how it is flowering and what new petals will burst into bloom. following the Learning Light study.0 informal.0 tools SMEs and others small/mediumsized orgs innovation Web 2. The Epic study identified 157 companies providing e-learning services in the UK but research was limited to those whose financial performance is available from Companies The UK e-learning Market 23 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . based on a study carried out by Epic. free Web 2.0 by Anita Rosen. 4.K. workflow-based. or in-house specialists large organisations e-Learning 1. developed by our then colleague Jane Hart.0 and informal learning as the tools to create learning organisations. or will it be e-learning 2.0 Players in the UK e-Learning market 4.0 static HTML formal. embedded learning ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING SOLUTIONS rapid e-learning. From automation to the Workplace innovation In automation online versions of f2f courses (web-based training) CONTENT Web 1.slide Learning Light began delivering more than three years ago. This book reviewed the range of technologies now available.0 new tools: SHARING blogging COLLABORATION wikis SYNDICATION podcasting new ways of RSS learning social networking Niche specialists e-Learning 2. Emerging technologies to Achieve real results”. with the cover subtitle “Proven practices.1 “Movers and Shakers” 2007 In April 2007. the author of that paper John Helmer released a new report on the “Movers and Shakers” in the U. e-learning industry. instructional self-paced courses INDIVIDUAL LEARNING CONTENT outsourced.0 e-Learning 2.
1.2 UK’s e-Learning players In this Section we bring up to date the tables of players included in the previous Report. This also includes UK registered trading arms of multinationals. CICs and not-forprofits within the industry. Line and Brightwave which from our perspective made the survey of limited value. This excluded major players like Tata. helped by access to Open Source technologies. particularly in Yorkshire and Humberside. At Learning Light we are committed. training companies and outsourcing organisations. We follow the tables with an update on the fortunes of the 34 companies which Epic studied in detail. understandably.: o large companies active in the UK with e-learning as a non-core activity o companies principally engaged in e-learning as core business o companies featured in the 2007 “Movers and Shakers” report 4. viz. Consultancies in particular are typically small and often invisible to sector scrutiny because they operate as Associates for big organisations. particularly IT companies. which we have updated and which appears in the tables below. however. particularly since it’s generally accepted that 8-10% of revenues nationally are generated by the Top Ten players on any list.g. Defence) John had previously offered 3 listings in the Learning Light 2007 study. Because there are so many tiny consultancies in the industry in the UK we have decided that a list of their names would add little to the value of this Report.1. The study also.House. to supporting the interests of this community. and maintain and develop a comprehensive registrar of consulting organisations in the UK. 4. tended to focus on competitors to Epic or players in Epic’s market sectors (e. Table 1 Large companies active in UK with e-learning as a non-core activity Accenture Amaze BDP Media BSG BT Capita Computer Software Gatlin Frost & Sullivan Group HP I BM ILX Group plc Kaplan KnowledgePool Logica CMG The UK e-learning Market 24 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . We are also witnessing the emergence of social enterprises.3 Note on UK e-learning consultancies The majority of e-learning businesses in the UK are micro-businesses or SMEs meaning they do not have to submit full accounts to Companies House. 34 in total.
Macromedia Europe Ltd Oracle Plateau Systems QA Rhema Group Tribal Group Matchett Group Parity PPI Learning Raytheon SAP UK Vega NIIT UK. Cognitive Arts and Element K Pearson Premier IT Reed Learning plc Thales Table 2 Companies active in the UK wholly or primarily engaged in eLearning aardpress Absolutely Training Academy Internet Academee (now part of Oliver Wyman) AccessPlanIT Atlantic Link Ltd Atlas Interactive Ltd Attic Learning Auralog Aurion Learning Balance Learning BBC Worldwide Interactive Learning BdM Development Blackboard Bourne Training (now merged with RedTray) Brainvisa Bridge2Think Ltd Bridge-Learning Brightwave BTL Group Ltd BYG C2 Workshop Can Studios Caspian Learning CIA Training Cobent Ltd Coggno ComplyWise Copia (now part of Intellego) Corous Course-Source Ltd Cross Knowledge Cylix DACG Limited The UK e-learning Market 25 Information Transfer Insite Objects Interwise Intellego Jenison Kineo Knowledge Solutions learnDirect LearningGuide LearningMotion Learning Pool Line LM Matters Ltd LMD Learning Solutions Ltd m-learning Mohive Music Factory Mycourse Limited MyKnowlegeMap NetDimensions Limited Netviewer GmbH New Wave Learning Noor Informatics NuJuice October Systems Open Mind Ltd Outstart PageForward Learning Panviva Peakdean Pixelearning Ltd Plateau Learning Systems RedTray Rosetta Stone Language Learning Safari e-Reference Saffron Sales 101 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .
datango AG datmedia Ltd DeltaNet International Desq DTV SanScrip Seminar Serco learning Simulacra Media Ltd e2train e4Learning Echelon Publishing Edvantage Group Eedo Knowledgeware E-learning WMB Electrovision Element K (now subsumed in NIIT) Ellerton Training Services Ltd Embrace Learning Engage revision ENI Enlightenment Productions eOrigen Epic EQHO Communications Ltd ETS Europe UK FISC Fuel Europe Fullard Learning Futurate Futuremedia GBS Corporate Training Giunti Interactive Labs Global Learning Alliance Happy Computers Harbinger Harlequin Training Solutions Headlight Communications HT2 ltd i-education Idigicon ikonami IMC (Formerly Communication AG) Infinity Infobasis Ltd Information Multimedia SkillGate Ltd Software Training Technology (STT) Sponge UK SSR-i STAR Consulting Ltd Tata TIS Teknical Telematica Texthelp Systems Ltd The Orange Group Ltd The Working Manager Thirdforce (embraces former brands Electric Paper. Mindleaders name still retained) Time2study Traineasy Ltd Trainer1 Trax UK Ltd Tribal education services Trivantis TTS Europe Ltd Umbel (TfA Group) Upskill Video Arts VTN Technologies Vuepoint Walkgrove Watsonia Workshop WBT Systems Webanywhere Webarchitects Wired Red UK Ltd Xperience Xoolon Xyleme The UK e-learning Market 26 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . AV Edge and CLM.
Grown from a budget off-the-shelf supplier to a recognised force in the industry KnowledgePool Now one of the largest LBPO companies in the world learndirect Solutions Still in there. compliance specialists EBC sold to Futuremedia. Soft) Jenison One of the success stories of UK industry. uses offshore production Outstart Major player in LCMS sector Pennant Track record in defence. who in turn were acquired by EdvantageGroup Enlight disappeared Epic Bought by Huveaux Group in 2005 and sold to entrepreneur Andrew Brode in 2008 FT Knowledge Going strong Fuel IT acquired by LRN (compliance training specialists) and renamed Futuremedia 2008 acquired by EdvantageGroup from Norway gtslearning The driving force in CompTIA e-learning for IT industry.Table 3: Looking back to the Epic UK Marketplace survey (2007) The 34 companies in the Epic 2007 study. how they are faring Company Comments Academy Internet bought by RedTray February 2009 Adval Group defunct Assima going strong Atrium disappeared Communications Attic Learning disappeared Easy i now formally known by name of parent company SAI Group. nuclear and heavy industry PTT Pretty solid player in IT training market QuestionMark Long established online survey and assessment software supplier The UK e-learning Market 27 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Happy Computers Continues to win awards for its e-learning and blended learning. never really cracked the corporate market but still arguably the largest supplier of level 1 and 2 training in Europe LRI Strong player in leadership and management market MARIS Technologies Still going strong. Going strong. Imparta Still a force to be reckoned with especially for Sales and Marketing training Ivy Learning (Ivy Budget end of market.
this US-led has successfully emerged from the SAP / ERP training sector to become a major performance management supplier. including eLearning US-led dominant force in big-budget HCMS market Although the massive 3-5 year library deals are declining in popularity it’s hard to fault SkillSoft’s service levels.g.Redtray RTIX RWD Technologies Saba SkillSoft SumTotal Thirdforce Thomson NETg TPG Academy XOR Still growing both organically and by acquisition (Bourne. product focus or strategy (e. Academy Internet etc). Mindleaders etc…steady growth in revenues and now entered US market via Mindleaders but also actively selling Mindleaders in UK gone The Project Group acquired by PPI Learning in 2008 Technology-led and successful across Europe in major and online training programmes. then further growth by acquisition (Pathlore 2005 and Mindsolve 2006) Electric Paper. acquired by Ultimate Software in October 2006 and brand name disappeared 21 years old. NETg merger pretty much faultless. acquiring Books 24 X 7 and Thomson NETg). Originally Docent & Click2Learn. The UK e-learning Market 28 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .
Rosetta Stone and GlobalEnglish continue to lead the way. community portals and public sector bespoke work. and the Thinking Worlds tool has attracted great interest. o i-education– interviewed: a young business already beginning to make a global impact o Intellego – interviewed: Still doing well in the world of compliance and regulation with in depth expertise in several vertical markets o Kineo –– interviewed: a major success story. o Assessment 21 – interviewed: new launch business pioneering the next generation of e-assessment. o Atlantic Link is aggressively forging ahead with development tools and platforms – firmly a top ten player. o Caspian Learning – doing well in the world of immersive learning solutions. Attracted significant investment and doing well. and heading – arriving in the USA o LINE Communications –– interviewed: very probably the UK market leader in e-learning content.. Brighton and now Sheffield. o Brainvisa and Harbinger represent two of the new wave Indian companies who have swiftly and successfully cracked both UK and USA. expanding into Europe o Mezzo Film – a film maker that launched the innovative Training Pod concept – deploying e-learning on a data stick into the NHS The UK e-learning Market 29 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . o CrossKnowledge’s mix of blended learning products plus academic studies and their own Faculty seems to be a winning mix. for the online language sector with Middle East and New Europe major markets. o e2Train . o Cobent and ComplyWise In the general compliance technologies (now part of BSI) are the ones most commonly met.interviewed: LMS vendor continuing to win work. in different styles.interviewed: Sheffield based pioneer of gaming and learning. FISC continues to prosper o Futurate – interviewed: innovators extraordinaire. o Auralog. firmly believes the trajectory of e-learning will continue upward. o Aurion – interviewed: Belfast based company have carved a niche with CPD management systems. o DESQ . it is all about the future with real insight. and confident in the future o e-origin – interviewed: Leading the trend back to film in learning o Epic – consolidated and coming back strongly with some real innovation and energy o FISC – interviewed: with a blue chip client base and a firm focus in compliance for financial services. o BTL – interviewed: well established business seeing solid growth in o e-assessment.Table 4 Interviews and other news: News and views on who’s doing what o Academee merged with Oliver Wyman in 2009.
and more. Mergers & Outsourcing In the run up to the publication of the 2007 Report there was the usual string of acquisitions and mergers. 4. (now QA again) NIIT acquired Element K Redtray merged with Bourne Training Academy Internet integrated key assets Adval The UK e-learning Market 30 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .1.3. The driving force behind the Norfolk e-learning forum o Safari on-line – interviewed: Bringing books into the 21st century o Skillsoft – interviewed: Still a major player proving e-learning really does work – true trail blazers. winning bigger and bigger clients. o Umbel – apparently prospering o Virtual College – interviewed: Another very successful practitioner of the virtual academy model o Webanywhere – – interviewed: UK market leader in providing school web sites and one of only four UK Moodle partners – going international from Keighley o The Working Manager active in similar areas but each a different product o The Workshop – interviewed: The Workshop continues to prosper on its values of excellence and innovation. Consolidations. o Xoolon – interviewed: bringing sport and e-learning together – and it won’t stop at just sports – life style learning leaders. o Peakdean – interviewed: long established player who produces quality e-learning for a wide range of blue chip clients o Pixelearning – interviewed: It looks like a breakthrough for Pixelearning. and still up there. o o o o o o o o Saba completed acquisition of Centra Edvantage Group completed acquisitions of Kognita and FutureMedia Blackboard and WebCT completed merger under the Blackboard brand FutureMedia completed acquisition of ebc QA and Interquad merged to form QA-IQ. With the industry containing so many SME organisations founded and managed by bright.o My Knowledge Map – interviewed: making the virtual academy model really work. as below. as they continue to prosper in the US Market o PTK training – interviewed: New start for very experienced CEO o Real Projects – interviewed: Doing a great job in pioneering e-learning in East Anglia. creative people rather than entrepreneurs or strong operations management it’s only reasonable to expect some will go stale or run out of new ideas to meet new market situations.
com/Index. Learning and Development comes into the frame as a candidate for wholesale outsourcing. IS and logistics are typically the most outsourced functions in the enterprise. The UK e-learning Market 31 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . which is no longer a peculiarly American phenomenon. and that instead of talking to their regular contact they now have to negotiate with the outsource provider – typically a competitor or with a different service focus and offering from the supplier. Company Comments Academy Internet acquired by Redtray February 2009 Epic sold to entrepreneur Andrew Brode in 2008 Fuel IT acquired by LRN 2007 FutureMedia 2008 acquired by EdvantageGroup KnowledgePool Now one of the largest LBPO companies in the world RTIX acquired by Ultimate Software in 2006 SkillSoft acquired Thomson NETg 2007 Thirdforce acquired MindLeaders in 2007 to (a) consolidate Thirdforce presence in USA and (b)create competitor in UK to SkillSoft and Element K Thomson NETg acquired by SkillSoft in 2007 TPG Academy The Project Group acquired by PPI Learning in 2008 The trend to outsource L & D continues worldwide. Cap Gemini. QA. One problem this can throw up for suppliers is the disconcerting experience of turning up to a client meeting to find that the client’s HR operation has been outsourced. and the consideration that e-learning involves both HR and IS means that much heat is being generated by the idea of Learning Business Process Outsourcing. Logica CMG.trainingoutsourcing.asp) . As clients move to outsource increasing numbers of their HR processes to external suppliers. In the USA LBPO is big enough to merit its own league table and industry association (see: http://www.Looked at from the perspective of a large management consulting firm the managed learning market is a subset of the HR outsourcing market (which is itself a subset of the wider BPO market). Several companies are making a determined play for the space in the UK. (LBPO). To show how the market moves on we repeat the table from that part of the Report. Top-down . This movement into managed learning is coming from both top down and bottom-up. Serco. IBM. HR. KnowledgePool.Earlier in this Report we revisited the Epic marketplace survey to see how the 34 companies surveyed had fared. Capita. including Accenture.
blogs. etc.) and new ways of combining them coming on stream all the time . There is an argument that organisational e-learning is now too complex a beast – what with the proliferation of learning modalities (pod casts. KM. and to offset the ‘lumpiness’ of their training revenues by locking clients into longterm programmes with recurring fees. The UK e-learning Market 32 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Outside (and outsourced) help needs to be sought. etc. virtual classroom.Bottom-up .For training and e-learning companies. a move into managed learning arises out of an aspiration to get further up the food chain within the organisations they supply.to be left to mere training managers. wikis.
and Future Industry Trends. do you anticipate this growth to continue?” The overall view: Looking good. with the economy driving demand……. The response to the survey we conducted with industry leaders in preparing this Report has been so positive and the outcome so productive that we plan to repeat the exercise on a regular scheduled basis going forward. and capture its views as to current Market Trends.e. And that’s not all…… Learning Light Synopsis: The UK e-learning Market 33 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . and those on that aspirational journey toward success (i. We spoke to companies from the new and very small to the large and well established.0 The Survey interviews In seeking to validate further our research into the market. Here we hoped to both understand the mood of the industry.5. and of course as you would expect to a number of companies in Sheffield – where we believe the UK’s hub of e-learning is located.1.1 Market Trends We began our interviews with a series of questions around the market trends and prospects for e-learning in these difficult economic times. 5. 5. to Norwich in the east and to Belfast in the west. we undertook a series of semi-structured interviews with a wide and representative group of e-learning and learning technology companies. somewhere in the middle) as we sought to build our picture from an industry perspective. Technology Trends.1 Continuing growth…? our opener being: The e-learning industry has enjoyed considerable growth in the last few years. We spoke at length to 24 companies from Brighton in the South and Newcastle in the North.
The response to this question from the twenty four companies interviewed was one of undoubted optimism toward the future growth potential for e-learning and learning technologies. That the ROI models that e-learning can offer are getting more and more compelling. we believe that the interest level and opportunity pipeline is The UK e-learning Market 34 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . 5. However. and pleased with the overall positive nature of the responses we sought to probe deeper and understand what potential issues could slow demand. but an increasingly. cost saving and overall rising interest in e-learning solutions have mitigated this. Common views were that the e-learning market is still a long way from maturity and there remains abundant growth potential. if so. The growth potential was now being realized as e-learning and learning technologies had now passed the proof of concept stage. and interest levels were getting higher and higher While impressed. what factors do you believe are causing this?” And “Have you noticed any changes in terms of sales cycles and starting projects?” The overall view: Some slowing in signing contracts and some delays overall. There is some noted downward price pressure in the market. and to identify whether there had been changes to the sales cycle as the economy contracts. and a trend toward in-house development using the new content tools that are appearing on the market. our next two questions where: “Are you witnessing a slowdown in demand and. There is no doubt that the economy is viewed as both a challenge and an opportunity. That contrary to expectation demand has not fallen away in the sectors where e-learning has traditionally done well.1. but many other reasons were put forward for this optimism. opportunity rich environment Learning Light synopsis: The companies recognised that there were a number of factors that dampened demand in certain areas and uncertainty in the economy had slowed some sales cycles.2 Signs of a Slowdown Accordingly. but the demand drivers of speed.
Learning Light. some seeing e-learning as a custom software development service.80420000) for OJEU procurement of e-learning services has had an impact. This CPV was previously attributed to training services till June 2008. However. and in one instance attributing a CPV relating to ICT network infrastructure to procure social networking applications. but e-learning vendors will also experience greater challenges in justifying the ROI they can offer. We were keen to know more about patterns of public sector procurement and specifically whether the creation of a specific public sector CPV code (Common Procurement Vocabulary. Accordingly our next question asked: Have you noticed changes in public sector procurement patterns and opportunities? And as the second part: Has the pattern changed now that e-learning has its own CPV? The overall view: The public sector is very important to the industry and the trend remains positive Learning Light synopsis: “We can almost hear the buyers’ pencils being sharpened!” At present there seems to be little evidence of a major slow down in the uptake of e-learning by the public sector. 5. and it will be framework agreements and more competitive mini tenders that will drive The UK e-learning Market 35 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . with its Market Intelligence and Tender Information Service tracks public sector procurement trends closely. Our view is that usage of this new CPV code is slow in its uptake. we believe that public sector expenditure will come under significant pressure.3 Importance of the public sector Next we sought to focus on the importance of the public sector: The public sector has always been of considerable importance to the e-learning and learning technologies industries. e-learning on the one hand could be well placed to deliver savings. with public sector procurers using a wide range of CPVs in their procurement.mitigating any negative or downward trend at present. There is no doubt that public sector procurers will be demanding greater and greater price reductions.1.
the economy or new industry developments? The overall view: We are all realistic about the economy. the one most significant trend is the increasing role marketing and communications departments are playing in using e-learning.this cost saving agenda.1.1. as do new industry developments The UK e-learning Market 36 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .e. so we asked: Is business coming from places other than expected? The overall View: No but well Yes actually! Learning Light synopsis: This provoked a mixed and almost contradictory response. The second surprise is that business is still coming from sectors of industry that has been badly hit by the recession such as automotive and financial services 5. will e-learning break out as has so often been predicted.5 Where are the threats Our final and rather “cheeky” question for the first section was designed to sum up views toward the overall economy and introduce the next section of the interview as we asked our interviewees about the changes in technology in our industry. and whether levels of interest are growing outside sectors that have already adopted e-learning – i. Which is the biggest threat to your business. 5. with some companies telling us that they deliver tightly focused marketing operations specialising in specific sectors and others that work is coming from the unexpected or usually not! It is apparent that business is coming from differing angles.4 Where is business coming from Our next question was designed to see how well the e-learning industry is marketing itself. but it seems to be an opportunity.! We were surprised that very few of the elearning vendors were aware of the newly designated CPV for e-learning services.
Technology did not appear to be perceived as a major threat, the majority of responders felt their organisation could adapt and utilise the new and emerging technologies. As noted in the sections above, the industry was realistic about the economy, but the very firm view was that the recession was an opportunity more than an issue. Learning Light Synopsis: Neither is perceived to have precedence over the other, both are seen as challenges and opportunities.
5.2 Technology Trends Having raised technology as an issue or opportunity, we were keen to get a more detailed understanding from the companies of what will shape the industry from a technical perspective. We were keen to understand, for example, the impact open source and web 2.0 would have on the e-learning industry. Were these developments likely to have an impact upon the industries revenues and structure? Or would they prove disruptive or an opportunity for further market growth? 5.2.1 The impact of open source Our first question was devised to open the topic and bring the much discussed Open Source technology to the fore. Some interviewees immediately focused on Moodle, others did not. Responses varied depending on the type of businesses, but the picture is mixed in its view, but confident in its ability to adapt and assimilate and crucially confident enough to ensure its integration in pursuit of improving learner performance: What do you feel is the impact of open source on the e-learning industry? The overall view: Its nothing new, we adapt to it and adopt it where appropriate
Learning Light Synopsis:
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This really was the Moodle, Ning, Snagit and Coggno etc… question. In short, it is our view that the adoption of Moodle and open source in general will be driven around one of cost benefits analysis and appropriateness. If companies are looking for a rapid tactical deployment of an LMS – Moodle may well be the one. There is no doubt that the M word stimulates some of the strongest views in the e-learning industry. This however should alert the industry to a major change as there are over 200 Learning Management Systems (LMS) and 75 Virtual Learning Environments (VLE) on the market, and just the mention of one can produce such debate! Discussion around open source in general can be seen as slightly more philosophical, and its impact both in the industry and on the industries clients.
Learning Light Synopsis: Beyond Moodle there was much less controversy about the role of open source software. The e-learning industry proves itself at being adept in adopting and adapting all manner of new technologies Technologies do not appear to be the issue to an industry such as this, it is much more about creating good learning in the eyes of the companies.
5.2.2 Web 2.0 – learning 2.0 Our next question focused on Web 2.0, an area of hype or an opportunity for e-learning, or even what was referred to as Learning 2.0. The responses generated a wide range of responses, with almost all seeing the importance of web 2.0, but many offering a word of warning to temper the enthusiasm expressed. Do you feel web 2.0 technologies in general will grow in importance and use in e-learning?
The overall view: Yes, Yes but use web 2.0 with a “health warning”
Learning Light synopsis There is in our view huge demand emerging from learners (and increasingly from their organisations) to translate what is happening in the web 2.0 environment and translate the techniques and technologies
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to the world of learning and development, and nowhere is this illustrated better than in the rise of social networking. Web 2.0 – or Learning 2.0 or whatever it is called and rebranded in future years is now here for the long term. It will evolve and improve and emerge in ways not yet considered by the mainstream of L&D, and will increasingly overlap with the marketing and communications function. The companies interviewed reflected both the excitement and interest of Web2.0, but were quick to point out that the usage must be tempered by one of appropriateness – hence the health warning! We however believe that the e-learning industry is very well placed to benefit from these trends as we drive toward the new learning organisation.
5.2.3 Social networking and e-learning Hence our next question, where we sought to focus on the rise of social networking in particular: How do you anticipate social networking environments impacting upon the e-learning industry? The overall view: Yes again- to anticipated growth and influence, but with that health warning Learning Light Synopsis Open source, web 2.0 and social networking all add greatly to both the debate and the opportunity. While some may see the new technologies as a threat to more conservative business models, these technologies undoubtedly provide huge opportunities to the content development and creative companies in the e-learning eco-system. The threat to the LMS and VLE vendors is there, but again it appears that they too are adapting to these developments and can take comfort in the innate and understandable conservativism of many private sector organisations to adopt these technologies. In contrast it is our view that it’s the public sector – often seen as a late comer to the e-learning industry- that is adopting the web 2.0 and social networking applications. We believe this to be because firstly there is no existing e-learning technology whose integration they need to consider and secondly because the culture of sharing good practice in the organisation is often more established. It is our view that these technologies will offer greater choice and greater creative opportunities to improve the learner experience – which
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the digital native learner, generation Y learner, or millennial learners comes to demand. However, the industry must take care to ensure clients are not confused, overwhelmed or exposed. We are confident that the e-learning industry is of a level of maturity now that it recognises that the crucial selection criteria of any learning technologies should be their appropriateness for each specific need. It is interesting to note that the L&D community is hugely interested in the power of social networking, but that it is the marketing and communications departments that are increasingly driving its adoption.
5.2.4 Future technology trends Our final question for this section asked our interviewees to pick out the trends they sort as likely to be important in the industry in the coming years: What new applications of technologies e.g. e-reference, online seminars, online coaching, e-assessment, mobile learning or serious gaming are you seeing or becoming interested in? And What other technologies have you noticed being introduced and used to deliver learning?
The overall view 1) Mobile – maybe this time, but its really about being portable, 2) Games – going that way, keep it real and get it more real, but the devices/consoles are a key consideration and their access is jealously guarded by manufacturers, 3)e-assessment has arrived, 4) don’t write off text – e-books and e-reference could be big…. 5) eportfolio is now firmly established 6) content is still crucial and how you use it is king! Learning Light synopsis It is difficult to summarize the wealth of views given to what was such an open question, but the answers illustrate one of the key trends that runs through this industry review – the sheer creativeness and openness in adopting technologies for learning that this industry has. Indeed we would recommend you read the interview narrative in the long version of this report.
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5. rapid development models. new models to exploit IP. and how content is used is King! It is interesting to note the still apparent disconnect between the video games industry and the e-learning and learning technologies industry. e-portfolio is now firmly established and e-Passports. but do note the disparity in size of typical e-learning developers and video games developers. given the characteristics of the industry was: Do you feel new business models are impacting on the industry? The overall view: Yes (but not so easy for new entrants) – tools driven models. We make no predictions as to how this disconnect will be overcome. content aggregation models.3.yet? Devices make a difference – Nintendo DS or i-phones – cool ones are best! Keep it real and make it more real – film and TV quality production of learning e-assessment has arrived Don’t write off text! – e-books and e-reference could be big…. but it’s really about being portable Games – going that way.1 New business models Our first question. new relationships – partnerships and alliances and SaaS – software as a service all feature in the future development of the industry Learning Light synopsis The UK e-learning Market 41 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .3 Future Industry Trends In our third section we asked our respondents their views regarding the structure of the UK’s e-learning and learning technologies industry.but not all the way onto consoles. 5. Do see our interview section with leading gaming and learning developer Jake Habgood. .Instead quite simply we reflect and agree with the overall industry view as put forward above: Mobile – maybe this time. including SmartCards are part of the education world Content and instructional design are still crucial..
acquisitions and liquidations In our next question we asked about the structure of the industry.2 Industry structure – mergers. and Yes we will see liquidations but we will also see lots of collaboration Learning Light Synopsis We were intrigued to understand the industry structure and why this apparent ceiling to growth. 5. but has yet to see its “WPP” emerge.The e-learning industry is used to change and innovation. We believe there will be a continuing trend toward collaboration and alliances both within the industry and in partnerships with IT Consultancies and training providers as “the blend” continues to be more and more influential. with new business models almost seen as the norm. it was perhaps Mark Pearce at Workshop that crystallized our views on this matter: “The industry has some similarities to the design and advertising industry. The UK e-learning Market 42 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . This creativity and innovation is only likely to accelerate. The industry will continue – almost relentlessly . given that this industry has seen quite a number. but this is the norm. Likewise would the number of new entrants to the industry slow.to adopt and adapt new technologies and techniques to deliver more effective and engaging e-learning.3. and would there be an acceleration in this driven by the economic downturn. and is responsible for designing in further growth. acquisitions. The barriers to entry from a technology perspective are not high. we were keen to know what the industry felt about the likelihood of takeovers and acquisitions. and the number of liquidations increase? Do you anticipate the industry structure changing in the next 12 months – mergers. especially in the content development sector was one of Yes we will see consolidation as companies try rapid growth strategies. It is this innovative “colonisation” of new and emergent models that gives the industry its strength. new starts and liquidations? The overall view. Yes – we will see continued new starts – often driven by take-over consolidations. but the barriers from a learning perspective are. and not a surprising view given the e-learning industry make up – which is principally one of Small and Medium Enterprises. as many of the respondents pointed out.
we believe.3 Skill Shortages Our final question was to understand the issues faced by the industry in skills shortages and development. Other models appear to have a differing market. We believe this evolving partnering with training businesses to be a significant trend likely to lead to a change in the industry structure and provide foundation for further growth. Indeed we may see large service providers acquiring specialist content developers. It is this that will drive growing levels of collaboration and occasional consolidation by acquisition as larger companies acquire niche vendors. at the content development end the market competes on creativity and cost. with companies seeking to acquire skills on a “contractor” basis as opposed to a full time employment basis. 2009 has seen a change in the pattern toward skills requirements. As Safari On-line’s Collinson puts it – more alliances than acquisitions.3. However. with an understanding of the learning requirement of the client often the key differentiator. Learning Light has tracked the e-learning jobs market closely in the Sheffield city region. It is these businesses that appear to have difficulty in scaling. We also noted the trend in the industry to partner beyond the industry itself. The UK e-learning Market 43 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . based on our survey research. Can tool vendors bypass developers and supply direct to users? What role does generic content have to play in this market space? Can large service providers in the LMS world supply to the more medium sized companies or will Moodle come to dominate that market 5.This is probably because e-learning professionals have a slightly different mindset and are more passionate about delivering good learning content than outright growth. an almost 20% growth in job numbers on 2007. the development of long term partnerships with IT consultancies and with training providers was noted and highlighted by some interviewees.” The industry should be very attractive to new starts and technology businesses seeking new markets. and 2008 saw. They then use and choose the appropriate technologies.
the type of employment offered has switched significantly from full time employment to contract employment. We have excluded the requirement for subject matter expertise and instructional design services which is very often acquired on a contract based procurement of services. Consequently. A number of companies – for example Line and BTL. while the number of vacancies in the Sheffield City Region for e-learning professionals appears to have only slightly declined compared to last year. without doubt Seventeen (85%) of our interviewees reported skills shortages when seeking employees or specialist sub contractors. Have you or are you experiencing skills shortages for employees or specialist sub contractors? The overall view: Yes.have developed a “grow their own” policy. Learning Light Synopsis The skills issue appears to be quite complex and multi-faceted. We propose to undertake a new piece of research in the coming weeks and months. Many companies reported across the board shortages – and are “always looking for talent” as Workshop’s Mark Pearce puts it. The most common theme across almost all the companies is a shortage of experience at quite a number of levels. The biggest single specified requirement would appear to be a shortage in good quality Instructional Designers. yet reflecting the continuing demand for skilled personnel. The UK e-learning Market 44 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .We believe this indicates a degree of caution in how the growth of the company payroll is managed.
6. This produced the answer 27%. 6. In organisations using e-learning. Just as we are finding it virtually impossible to size the market because it’s hard to find its boundaries. e-learning now accounts for 12% of “total training time” Only 7% of respondents including e-learning in their top three practices and only 8% described it as “very effective”. What is striking is the inability of this sort of survey to define the whole technology-enabled learning spectrum… formal training. o 'e-learning is effective when combined with other forms of learning' (95% support) o 'e-learning demands a new attitude on the part of the learner' (92% support).1 That was then: the Hambrecht report 2000 The Hambrecht report “Exploring e-learning: a new frontier” in 2000 defined three supplier segments in e-learning: Technology. with providers branching out into other areas driven by client need and converging technologies changing the shape of what was possible. but taken up by only 30%. it is likely to be offered to about 60% of the employees. This phenomenon ‘we’ll all get it right over the next three years’ has been observed in previous CIPD surveys and earlier ASTD surveys.2 This is now: the 2008 CIPD survey on e-learning The 2008 Learning and Development survey included a special section on e-learning.6. As well as asking what percentage of training time is currently delivered through e-learning (12%) CIPD asked what this figure would be in three years time. The UK e-learning Market 45 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Learning Light’s 2007 report commented on how the lines had continued to become increasingly blurred since then. Optimism for the future of e-learning is rife. formal learning. so professional HRD practitioners cannot comment on learning forms outside their remit and often their cognisance. Content and Services. In using organisations. collaborative learning and JIT e-reference. informal learning. o 27% plan to do so over the next year Two statements seem to command near universal support. Trends in the market 6. Key findings included: o 57% of responders reported that they are using e-learning.
6. from LMS-delivered courses to EPSS and to the use of social networks and …. and practitioners are increasingly confident with it. The most important thing about these figures is that we can believe them. The UK e-learning Market 46 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .Particularly interesting is Donald H Taylor’s response. e-learning is now simply regarded as part of the learning mix. because e-learning then implied something quite narrow. In 2002. Yet these figures. For them. e-learning for most people meant an electronic analogy of the classroom: courses that were centrally prepared or commissioned.informal learning. they reflect actual learning and development practice today. this explains why only 7% considered it a ‘most effective’ practice. with attendance and assessment data collected by the learning and development. e-learning is a medium of delivery. This broad understanding of the meaning of e-learning will explain why – in spite of the apparent contradiction of only 7% rating it among the most effective training practices – 47% of respondents said they used it more than they did two years ago. They are not the frothy enthusiasms of vendors and early adopters. it was similar to its predecessor’s computer-based training (CBT) and computerassisted learning (CAL).1 Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. but how it is used.2. below. e-learning essentially meant the delivery of courses. e-learning added to these the concept of central planning and tracking via the learning management system (LMS). actually tell a clear story of changing attitudes to learning technologies. this phrasing makes no sense. If people know what they’re doing with e-learning. those polled for this CIPD survey will have taken e-learning to include the much wider range of electronically delivered learning 2008. Six years ago. Any effectiveness depends not on the medium itself. In 2002. You might as well ask whether books are an effective learning practice. They are also part of a fundamental change occurring within the learning and development function itself. the question could have made sense. In providing materials and a structure for self-study. which might smack of woolly thinking. In the absence of any agreed definition of e-learning. And the message is simple: for those that use it. Taylor At first glance the CIPD 2008 Learning and Development survey is a mess of contradictions on e-learning.
The very phrases ‘offered to’. Social networking and instant messaging will join tools such as email and ‘webinars’ among technologies that can be used to support learning. In other words. give an inbuilt advantage over smaller. Accenture. the results would certainly have been different. entrenched client relationships and the ability to offer the scale of operations that large clients need.Total training time …the wording of (the survey) questions invites the respondent to consider the narrow definition of e-learning. where the questions are not worded to restrict the sense of what e-learning means. have seen opportunities in e-learning and fostered in-house operations. The LBPO Top Twenty Every year TrainingOutsourcing. ‘boutique’ outfits.g. 7. Role of large corporate suppliers Large companies in IT. ‘What proportion of your employees use Google. Here. and Capita) who have traditionally offered training to their clients. In his essay for last year’s Reflections report. Training Outsourcing is now planning to release additional sector surveys including Learning Technologies. In some cases these have shown rapid growth. but can do much more besides.com offers a listing of the Top 20 LBPO companies worldwide and the Top 20 IT Training companies. eclipsing their traditional stand-up training operations with those companies. He pointed out that it would be inconceivable for a chief executive not to have an explicit strategy and suggested that it should be as inconceivable for a learning and development department not to have one either. to individually driven ‘pull’. Business Consulting and Managed Services (e. They will be part of a trend taking technologysupported learning away from page-turning on the screen to being a social experience. Unsurprisingly many of the same big names appear in both lists. this survey shows comprehensively that in practice it has gone through the five stages of the Gartner hype cycle and is now resolutely past the trough of disillusionment and up on the plateau of productivity. Flickr or access an online help system. The UK e-learning Market 47 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . If the survey had asked. IBM. ‘taken up’ and ‘total training time’ suggest online courses and the centralised world of the LMS. or email/IM colleagues for assistance?’. and from a centralised ‘push’. Charles Jennings of Reuters bemoaned the fact that only 56% of organisations had a written learning and development strategy.
The Top 20 as at June 2008 (alphabetical order) Accenture ACS Adamant CGS DDI Delta College GenPhysics GeoLearning Global Knowledge Innovatia Intrepid KnowledgePool Logica NIIT Element K Raytheon Convergys Expertus IBM LionBridge RWD These ‘Top 20' companies indicated that their revenues were generated through multiple solution areas. They’ve not been ranked because of the widely differing ways they book and allocate revenues. Revenue Segmentation Breakdown The UK e-learning Market 48 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . As in previous years.The most recent Top 20 outsourcing companies list is as below. the largest percentages of revenues came from training content development (33%) and delivery (27%) .see chart below for revenue breakdown of the 'Top 20”.
i. Blogs and all the other informal collaboration and sharing tools. including our Market Intelligence and Tender Information Service. nearly 4% of private sector training spend. a large number of UK players are either privately owned UK companies or UK registered companies privately owned overseas (e.e.1 A forecasting model 8. Plateau Systems) and revenues fall below the Companies House reporting threshold … And finally… how do we price WIKIs. since companies like Accenture and IBM do not break out e-learning revenues in their financial reporting (and in some cases outsource elements of their elearning to boutique providers. The UK e-learning Market 49 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Does web-delivered Video Arts videos or DTV films equal e-learning? 8. The size of the UK market It has always been difficult to give an overall size to the UK e-learning market. but unlikely to exceed £250m all told.1 background to the forecast As noted above. particularly free open source products? One “best guess” stated in the last edition of this Report (2007) was that the total value of the UK e-learning market was greater than £160m. based on a series of variables. In the time between this report and now. But you’d have to add in about £25m for UfI learndirect….g. Learning Light has developed a sophisticated market forecasting model. Our other variables we have modeled include the growth (or decline) in GDP.1.8. But again what are we measuring when we talk about e-learning. Interestingly within six months of producing the Report for Learning Light. in January 2007 when our first report e-learning market report was published. our estimate for the market varied between £160 million and £250 million. providing a risk of double counting). and we believe the market was enjoying growth of over 25%. e-learning has become a recognised code in the world of government procurement and OJEU we have been able to gain far greater incite into public sector procurement patterns. Also. A third approach (not based on reported or “interpreted” revenues of suppliers) tackles this from a percentage of training budget for industry sectors against forecast GDP for the UK. Since the June 2008 update of the CPV (Common Procurement Vocabulary) codes. the author John Helmer used a calculation based on average revenues and number of identified companies in the UK to suggest a different “best guess” of the UK market for e-learning products and services as being between £500m and £700m.
but only 42% of private sector organisations using e-learning.2 The Market in 2006 Accordingly on reflection (and with the benefit of our forecasting model and information service) we believe the market in 2006 to have been worth somewhere near to £229 million.1.4 Percentage of training budgets It is more difficult to estimate the amount of overall training budgets that are now directed toward e-learning. It is in the later two categories that Learning Light in addition to its close monitoring of public sector procurement contract awards uses its unrivalled network of organisations and associates along with its research skills to synthesize these key trends. We have also modeled what we believe to be the level of interest and uptake of e-learning by companies and organisations.5% in 2009. 8. 8. 8. And interestingly 82% of public sector organisations using e-learning. with 12% in 2008 and a forecast of 13% in 2009.1.the expenditure on training in the UK – which we believe is closely related to company turnover and hence GDP. CIPD research indicates 12% of training time is devoted to e-learning – a long way from the 30% in the USA! Indeed we have seen even higher adoption level numbers in the USA – up to 50% of training delivered in the non education sector uses e-learning! An analysis of a Toward Maturity survey indicates e-learning expenditure as a percentage of overall training to be 13%. we believe some 45% of organisations are using e-learning in 2008 and we project growth to 47.1. and the proportions of training budgets being spent on e-learning and learning technologies.3 Adoption levels We believe uptake of e-learning has grown amongst organisations steadily from the low usage levels (30% of companies) forecast in 2004 to over 57% of organisations using e-learning in 2008 (CIPD Annual Survey 2008). This reflects our view garnered from the industry that the UK e-learning The UK e-learning Market 50 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Indeed we believe the market grew in the order of 12% from our 2005 reverse forecast measure of £203 million. The Learning Light model uses a slightly more conservative forecast for 2006 and 2007. We do not however consider that the market grew as rapidly as we previously believed. The Learning Light model adopts a greater degree of caution with uptake levels.
5%.4 billion on HE Higher Education. Source: Leitch Report 2006. Our ability to track public sector contracts awarded was able to identify a number of significant contracts awarded to Sheffield based companies that account for 35% of the growth in the market from 2007 to 2008 alone! 8. point to an 11% reduction in overall training expenditure from 2007 to 2008 (Training Industry report). with growth rates of 13% to 13. Our £5 billion is principally the amount spent on training by companies and organisations – including government departments based on the assumptions that training represents a % of company turnover. and this will without doubt be reflected in a reduction in training budgets as companies and organisations cut costs and reduce employee numbers.market is not mature.6 2009 doom or gloom How big will the slowdown be? Or will this be the defining moment for e-learning and learning technologies as companies turn to e-learning in increasing numbers as a way to reduce training costs and even improve their environmental credentials by traveling less for training! The Learning Light model forecasts a 3. Our forecast model and its assumptions are underpinned by a marked increase in employment in the industry in Sheffield – a city with arguably the UK’s largest eco-system of e-learning and learning technology companies. We do however see a continued adoption of e-learning by companies – as The UK e-learning Market 51 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .1. The UK Government spends £12 billion on adult skills (£4.5 billion on FE (Further Education) and adult skills and £7. Indications from the USA. Learning Light with its partner organisation Creativesheffield undertook a skills and employment survey in June 2008 which indicated a 20% growth in employment numbers in the e-learning companies surveyed in the previous 12 months.1. 8. Our model sees the overall training expenditure decline by £200 million in line with GDP to just over £5 billion.5% contraction of GDP.5 Continued growth Based upon our assumptions we believe the market continued to grow into 2007 and 2008. and accordingly we would value the market in 2008 to have been worth £294 million.
7 Higher and higher If we accepted the CIPD level of uptake to be that 57% of companies now use e-learning we could value the market at more than £370 million for the non education market! However.3% in 2008. In addition these researchers forecast growth for the UK market at over 8%. We accept that these forecasts are never likely to be completely accurate. and can offer what can only be described as trends. but stays in positive territory at a growth rate of 6. in 2009 we became aware of another research project undertaking a similar analysis such as ourselves.5% and an increase in the percentage (of the reduced) training budget dedicated toward e-learning to 13%. Learning Light and our research associate. and the industry breaks the £300 million barrier with revenues of £313 million in 2009. This research indicated that we were perhaps a little cautious in our figures for the UK and the market was closer to £450 million in the corporate and non education sector and an additional £150 million in the education sector. from 12. Our forecast shows the e-learning market place growth to slow by more than 50%. and were fortunate to be able to share findings. We believe we can now offer a valuation tri-angle made up of the work of John Helmer.noted above to 47.1. 8. 2006-7 £800 £600 £400 2009-10 projection 2 £200 £0 2007-8 Learning Light John Helmer Additional single forecast 2009-10 2008-9 The UK e-learning Market 52 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .7%.
1. 8. given their comparative maturity. drawn from a number of sources. Enquiries to ourselves regarding e-learning continue to grow.uk which is enjoying record numbers of site visitors. We believe the government initiatives with Train2gain will bring stimulus to the training market. and mitigate some undoubted decline that will take place and which will further underwrite the growth of the e-learning component of the training market . reflecting the degree of uncertainty in the market. The UK e-learning Market 53 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . The Scandinavian market is forecast to grow at over 8%. We note an increasing trend to promote the environmental benefits e-learning can bring.which has probably declined in view of exchange rate changes. . We do however believe that the future market for e-learning remains robust.1. and while this in itself is not yet a major demand driver. The series of interviews conducted indicate a strong belief in growth….9 How does the UK compare with Europe We have made some attempt to contextualize the UK market in the overall European market. Learning Light operates the web site www. and we still see a significant growth of vacancies in companies in the Sheffield eco-system. we do note that the vacancies have changed in recent months from full time positions to fixed contract posts. a figure that could equally be applied to the UK market.8. We believe the UK e-learning market to be along with Scandinavia the most developed markets in Europe. and in the context of the training and education market. We believe the overall Scandinavian market to be worth €1 billion. it will certainly underpin the e-learning market.co. This would compare to the UK’s market size of between €650 and €700 million.e-learningcentre.8 Can we be confident in this forecast of continued growth? e-learning is and continues to be a difficult market to put boundaries around. e-learning appears to be miniscule. with interest levels in e-learning continuing to grow. However. These figures are estimates.
10 A US perspective The latest (February 2009) Bersin research in the US market revealed that training spend per learner fell between 2007 to2008 and is likely to fall further in 2009. The UK e-learning Market 54 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Mischievously you’ll also find in Appendix D Seb Schmoller’s review of expert predictions for 2008 and how they actually stacked up… 8. A number of MDs of Companies have come back to us during our research and said it seems like “business as usual” after a somewhat prolonged winter break.summary Repeatedly during our three month research project we encountered genuine optimism for the industry. In large organisations expenditure on online learning also fell for the first time ever and there will be continued pressure in 2009.The next largest market is anticipated to be the French market with growth projected at over 15%.2 Sizing the market . In the appendices to this report you’ll see expert predictions (from eLearn Magazine) on what to expect through 2009. We believe that an aggregation of the UK. Data for the rest of Europe – Germany. which may or may not accurately inform market growth estimates. ASTD’s recent survey showed that over 50% of respondents are being challenged to do more for less with their budgets. Although there’s a glut of industry leaders and pundits around the globe willing to offer their predictions. Eastern Europe and Southern Europe is difficult to obtain. 8. you’ll find that these don’t necessarily become reality. Some respondents admitted they were surprised by not only the volume of business they were signing up but also where the work was coming from. Scandinavia and France will represent over 80% of the European market at present. but off a lower base – we would estimate at between €300 – to €350 million.1.
9.1. the open source VLE: Moodle. or LMS = Learner Management System LCMS = Learning Content Management System CMS = Course Management System (classroom and e-Learning together) CMS = Competency Management System TMS = Training Management System (classroom only) VLE = Virtual Learning Environment MLE = Managed Learning Environments KMS = Knowledge Management System EPSS = Employee Performance Support System This area of the market is also one of the most contested. based on our research is that Moodle and indeed other open source VLE platforms such as Sakai will come to play an increasing role in the marketplace. 9.2 Moodle Our view. one word did raise considerable interest amongst our interviewees – and seems to define a new category in this market. However.9. Moodle will support tactical quick and practical launches of e-learning. Industry Trends In this section we present a synopsis that we believe from our research to be some of the key trends that will come to define the e-learning and learning technologies industry as it goes forward. Trends in learning platforms – more competition and more choice The Learning Management System “LMS” is the most common technology term in general use in the industry.0. but there’s a raft of Management Systems and platform acronyms in use : The letter game: o o o o o o o o o o LMS = Learning Management System. and we see an increasing number of content development providers incorporating The UK e-learning Market 55 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .1. with a wide range of vendors competing.
Performance Management and Reports. The value proposition between open source solutions and proprietary software will become clearer. 9. (where Moodle is being effectively deployed and integrated with school management systems) and in the corporate market. Communications. CPD.Moodle into their offer as a way of expediting the delivery of an e-learning programme. We are already seeing the emergence of a growing number of a Moodle “plug ins” applications for both the corporate and education market. LMS vendors will seek to adapt their business models by offering SaaS deployments and deeper integration to ERP and HR systems that exist in closed corporate worlds where open source solutions may not be viewed quite so favorably as in the academic marketplace. We believe this already crowded LMS/VLE market will benefit from what we refer to below as “Compliance 2. Indeed it is our view that this market. so as not to make their systems offerings increasingly complicated and cumbersome.0” and the growing interest in e-learning and learning technologies in mid size corporate organisations and the medium sized SME businesses will further drive adoption of both open source and proprietary applications. though crowded will continue to grow. Groups.4 Software as a Service (SaaS) However. Events Management. It also offers a less clumsy interface.1. Two LMS vendors FISC and e2train both report that Moodle is having little impact upon their businesses. Both Kineo and Keighley based Webanywhere (one of only four UK Moodle partners) see strong and continuing growth for Moodle in both the education sector. 9. The UK e-learning Market 56 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . This can only drive further adoption of the Moodle platform.1. which seems to cover off all the known weaknesses of Moodle e.g. JING and SnagIt for example and LMS vendors and Moodle plug in developers must take care. From our perspective it’s quite often the simplest tools that are of interest…NING. Competency Management. we do not believe that it is outright doom and gloom for the LMS vendors.3 Moodle Plug Ins A particularly interesting addition to the market is Moodle plug-ins and wraparounds such as MOOMIS : Moodle MIS. with price as only one metric of measurement in the true cost of ownership calculation.
Europe and the UK are particularly well-served in this new eReference and knowledgebase sector: The Working Manager.2. Despite taking what SkillSoft described as their only real competition out of the market. (be it generic or bespoke) will be the key differentiator. the fact that there are new entrants into the market indicates that the value of generic content overall remains strong. and the emergence of new categories in the market: e-Reference systems and on-line academies. My Knowledge Map and Virtual College are examples of developers pursuing the Academy model. Other examples include the Umbel system.2.1 Generic content: SkillSoft absorption of the former Thomson NETg appears to have gone well and the new SkillSoft can demonstrate increased services and support services on a genuinely global basis. Books 24 X 7 is undisputed leader in terms of volumes of digitised business books for on a knowledge engine. all using an array of competency assessment tools and federated search engine technologies. This is certainly the strategy being pursued by e2train. This task-based system can be customised to reflect clients’ own The UK e-learning Market 57 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .One privately commissioned survey in January 2008 identified hosted services (ASP and Software as a Service) as becoming an increasingly attractive alternative to capital investment in behind-the-firewall implementations.2. Indeed we are seeing added value services increasingly being offered with greater and greater levels of integration of content in to these services. a configurable and customisable supervisory and management knowledgebase. and we remain of the view that the creative use of content. Content – How you use content is now King 9. we continue to see a number of new and innovative competitors emerge. size and value. 9. There’s an opinion that there has been a gentle decline in the perceived value of all-you-can-eat catalogue libraries. in duration. 9.2 e-reference systems and Academies The net result has been the emergence of smaller libraries. For IT technical content there are Safari Online’s e-Reference system and GetAbstract books digest system.
The demand for bespoke content development we believe will continue and get stronger and stronger. The demand for ‘realer’ and ‘realer’ and more relevant content will continue. This is true of Belfast based Aurion Learning and Leeds based Mezzo films. We have also detected a change in attitude emerging amongst developers who now seek to retain IPR to exploit products jointly developed with clients. Finally (though we know there are more. perhaps due to the fact that a bespoke operation carries less upfront risk than a products business. Not a mouse is moved in anger until a customer has already agreed to buy the end result. We anticipate (and indeed are seeing) that new genres emerge using the values of TV and film production. with several Sheffield based companies including the Workshop. Desq as well as London and Sheffield based LINE Communications and Brighton and Sheffield based Kineo all growing strongly. Indeed our tracking of the Sheffield based companies saw 2008 as one of considerable expansion in job numbers.competency models and competence frameworks. particularly niche market players such as Intellego) we need to mention CrossKnowledge who seem to be bridging the e-learning/ILT/e-reference markets successfully. However. and a questioning of the costs involved in continually reinventing the wheel this way. 9. and marketing costs can be kept fairly minimal. This we believe will grow in significance in coming months and years. a 20% growth in employment numbers. We have seen very strong growth from a number of companies in this field. with elearning becoming more established within large organisations. The willingness and ability and undoubted creativity of many bespoke content The UK e-learning Market 58 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . This more than any other factor we believe will be both a barrier to entry to the market and a potential barrier to growth. The key defining element will be the capability of the industry to deliver good learning design.3 Bespoke content – tougher price climate = more innovation Bespoke content development has in the past been the healthiest area of UK e-learning. increasing price pressure is beginning to be seen. manifesting itself in scripted scenarios and more and more sophisticated immersive learning scenarios and simulations.
It is however the demand for this learning style that will in the end drive demand through to the industry.4 Gaming and learning We anticipate continued growth in the serious gaming or immersive learning genre. or indeed if the video gaming industry and the e-learning industry will collaborate or converge.developers to adopt and adapt both rapid development tools and techniques. 9. 9. as well as the web2. However. however remain less clear as to how. Already we have seen companies such as REAL Projects adopt this “tools based development” model to some success. It would appear logical that more and more learning can be developed by inhouse teams and following that logic we would anticipate seeing the uptake of tools by in house learning development teams. and the arrival of the Caspian rapid 3D authoring tool for Immersive learning all add to the market dynamic. We anticipate an emergence of new business models – the North American market has seen this.5 Rapid Development – threat or opportunity Tools – rapid and self authoring will drive demand as well as drive down costs and seed both issues and opportunities for the e-learning industry.0 and social networking applications gives continuing confidence in this segment of the industry. We. with companies such as Red Vector and Udutu developing and utilising rapid tools (and offshore rapid development). In the full interviews synopsis we present the views of a leading exponent of the use of video games for learning – from the games developer’s perspective. The emergence of rapid tools that allow much greater self authoring potential to trainers or subject matter experts we believe will have considerable impact on the market place. a company who built its business model around rapid e-learning development tools. We. as yet we see the e-learning developers themselves utilising the The UK e-learning Market 59 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . like many others in the industry have been impressed by the speed of growth and expansion of Kineo. with a growing roster of blue chip clients. Coventry based Pixelearning are having increasing success in North America. Sheffield based Desq report continued interest in the use of games in e-learning.
workflow integration.? Will it be mobile learning.0 – learning 2.0 and Social networking will without doubt find a role in the learning and development mix.6 Web 2..rapid tools with considerable effect to deliver against new and evolving demands for rapidly deployed e-learning. but which may involve a readjustment of expectations difficult for some to make. Until now M Learning has been one of great The UK e-learning Market 60 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . . Some put their faith in rapid e-learning – which promises drastically to lower the cost and time it takes to produce bespoke e-learning. and will quite possibly go a considerable way in supporting and delivering the “informal learning” agenda. or 80/20 rule – and to really make inroads into costs must require some degree of reliance on generic materials as a starting point. personnel knowledge management. handheld learning or will it become portable learning? Our research highlighted that mobile learning was finally becoming of age. However. innovation and learning design skills of the solution vendor. The key message from our interviewees was one of “appropriateness”. prior to the choice of technical solution. Rapid production methodology leans heavily on the Pareto Principle. dynamic learning portals.0 – Social networking and Informal learning There was undoubtedly great enthusiasm among some of the companies interviewed for the use of web2.7 Mobile. Web 2. its usage and its effective integration into the overall learning and development mix will be dependant upon the creativity. after several false starts. storytelling. help desks. simulation. social network analysis. and co-creation”. presence awareness. search technology. coupled with a very clear health warning as to the appropriateness of its usage. the pragmatic view this requires runs counter to the prevailing culture in training departments (especially within the public sector) with many organisations persisting in seeing their own skills issues as unique and unprecedented. mobile learning.0 and social networking.the learning requirement must be paramount. We are non the less greatly taken with the concept coined by Jay Cross (2007) in his work “Informal Learning” of “Learnscapes”. Portable or…. “The emergent way of learning is more likely to involve community. expertise location. spontaneity. 9. However. Cross (2007) p41 9. Handheld.
Kineo and LINE Communications have all reported continuing high levels of interest from the financial services sector. but with few really good tangible examples for the corporate market. The Apple impact cannot be underestimated – both the devices and the arrival of i-tunes U will embed learning into portable devices. the financial services industry in recognising a failure in regulation is The UK e-learning Market 61 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . via Nintendo DS are all now providing better and better portable learning devices. 9. we believe that e-assessment will grow strongly in importance.8 e-assessment Despite the anticipated arrival of e-assessment for a number of years. The arrival of Adobe Flash Lite is having an impact for developers allowing richer content to be developed. The demand drivers we believe are firmly in place. 3G mobile networks now allow improved levels of connectivity. By this we mean the banking and finance industry and the automotive sales industry. 10. The choice of platforms – from i-phones to netbooks. We provide an insightful piece based round an interview with Assessment21’s Gerard Lennox who provides us with a clear understanding as to why this segment of the market is set for strong growth.promise.0 Drivers of growth 10. Our view is that higher education will prove receptive to the time savings and quality consistency e-assessment tools can now offer. and surprisingly little comment from the e-learning industry itself. Epic have successfully used the Nintendo DS to deliver specific learning requirements. and be seen as cool. However.0 It became quickly apparent in our interviews that interest levels for e-learning remained strong in areas that conventionally given present economic circumstances we would have anticipated a marked fall in demand. and the applications being offered now deliver on the ROI model.1 Compliance 2. The netbook is another major factor that will support the growth of portable device learning opportunities. Sheffield based FISC.
hobby groups and loose federations of common interest that may spring up rapidly and disappear equally rapidly. but not all used every opportunity to discredit e-learning. Secondly the content in use by many organisations is quite dated. Peer to Peer learning and sharing across all these varying modes of communications and collaboration will flourish. In addition we firmly believe that the UK training industry will embrace e-learning to a much greater extent. User or learner generated content will become more and more important. health and safety. Many financial institutions are already LMS operators but others are not. While Compliance has often been seen as one of the early drivers for the adoption of e-learning. Learning will continue to grow and grow beyond the formal organisational and educational frameworks. We foresee a significant level of demand for new and more interactive content to deliver the softer end of compliance training as well as defining leadership and decision issues in a learning format. and the transient and promiscuous user pattern. compliance in health care. government directives such as the WEEE directive for example will drive the need for both interactive content and the auditable evidence of the training being delivered. and some. its importance is still too great to be written off as one of yesterday’s driver of demand. As we live in an ever increasing litigious world. 10.2 Lifestyle learning The evidence of our research and interviews strongly indicates a growing realisation and receptiveness toward e-learning across a widening swathe of organisations. We believe the training industry (in certain cases) has seen e-learning as a threat. This trend is difficult to predict and even harder to prevent. The UK e-learning Market 62 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Indeed we would argue that the relatively slow adoption of e-learning and learning technologies in the UK (in comparison to the USA) has been in part due to the reluctance of the training industry to adopt and endorse e-learning.3 The training industry gets e-learning. and suffering from the law of diminishing returns. 10.we believe embarking upon a range of new Compliance driven learning and training. given the speed of technical development. institutions. Indeed it is our view that this market will be significantly stimulated by recent events. associations.
Add to this Blogs and micro-blogs and Wikis and other open source environments such as Ning and the traditional training industry will be challenged. 10.1 The e is for environmental The environmental agenda for e-learning is at present still latent. as a way of measuring return on investment. The rise and rise of social networking – from Facebook to Linked-in or Naymz. However. an increasing number of e-learning companies are adding environmental benefits to the marketing mix of their offer.4 The ROI model can make sense and delivers much more learner impact Traditionally e-learning benefits have been promoted with ROI and the ability to scale consistently to support global delivery as key benefits. via Twitter will create the opportunity for learners to request solutions to problems from peer groups across the organisation (or indeed the world). We have noticed a much greater level of interest from training organisations in how they can use e-learning.The industry itself has been aware of this. The UK e-learning Market 63 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . The culture of learning will change in organisations and the need for ‘Just in Time’ learning will increase. but now firmly believes that it has overcome the arguments first deployed against it by the more traditional training industry. In addition. LMS vendors typically stress the ability to schedule and track learning and development. leading to the disaggregation of many linear courses into small knowledge nuggets of learning. Training budgets will increasingly come under pressure and training organisations (in house or third party) will increasingly need to offer “more for less”.4. We are now seeing speed of development and deployment as a new and key differentiator coming to the fore. The rise of the Play Station generation has likewise put new demands upon both schools and employers as to the quality and means of delivery of learning and training. given the challenges of the present economic climate. 10.
BUT many of the big The UK e-learning Market 64 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . or Brandon Hall. This is a trend we expect to continue and grow in importance. Seb Schmoller. Bersin & Associates. most companies engaged exclusively in the field being microbusinesses. Services 10. As industry watchers we have Learning Light.8. as marketing departments seek to use e-learning to support products and services in the market. the e-Learning Centre. the emergence of web 2.10. 10.0 will support the uptake of e-learning and learning technologies in medium sized organisations. and a handful of other quasi-equivalents to Jay Cross.6 e–Learning 2.7 Marketing moves into the e-learning market We noted several instances of e-learning commissions being led by marketing departments in organisations. This has proven to be more than a happy co-incidence but undoubtedly this has added to our confidence in the growth of the market. It is our view that the availability of rapid e-learning tools.8. 10. A standard growth strategy for most learning technology companies.0 into the Small and Medium enterprise Interviews uncovered trends towards medium sized businesses expressing growing interest in e-learning and learning technologies. New pricing models – software as a service in particular will enable access to larger applications by medium sized companies. Jane Hart. content companies and training specialists is to offer consultancy in one form or another and some are quite sophisticated operations. Marketing departments appear to be impressed by how e-learning companies have grasped the use of web 2. Our slide presented on page 20 “from automation to innovation” illustrates what we believe to be this trend.1 Consultancy: a cottage industry? e-Learning consultancy is something of a cottage industry in the UK. It is also true to note that many of the leading e-learning players keep a foot in the marketing and communications camp as well.0 technologies and social networking as means of engagement.
the Workshop and Epic in offering consultancy services. Phil Green and others. We have noted the growing success of LINE. including outsourcers. and has been effective in using the consultancy eco-system made up of companies such as Psydev. Dunelm and e-loki. While there is real disappointment with the continued insistence by public sector procurement to play safe by engaging major players who can then carry all project risks. The UK e-learning Market 65 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . the up-side is that so many major players act as an employment agency for the SME and micro business sectors. rely on the services of Associates from the micro-businesses.players. and the Sheffield cluster of e-learning companies is particularly well served by a rich eco-system of specialist consultants such as Keith Shaw. The growth of Sero Consulting has been particularly impressive. This is a trend we expect to continue.
o In organisations using e-learning. but taken up by only 30%.summary Our 2008 Learning and Development Survey included a special section on e-learning. As well as asking what percentage of training time is currently delivered through e-learning (12%) we asked what this figure would be in three years time.Appendices Appendix A . This is the first time that the proportion has topped 50%. it is likely to be offered to about 60% of the employees. Key findings included: o More than half of the respondents (57%) reported that they are using e-learning. Two statements seem to command near universal support: o 'e-learning is effective when combined with other forms of learning' (95% support) o 'e-learning demands a new attitude on the part of the learner' (92% support). The UK e-learning Market 66 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . This recorded steady progress in the acceptance of e-learning. This produced the answer 27%. it now accounts for about 12% of 'total training time'. a key part of training delivery. but that much remains to be done.The 2008 CIPD review of e-Learning The CIPD report on e-Learning (2008) . When asked 'How effective do you think e-learning is as a learning and development intervention?' only 8% stated 'very effective' with the majority (64%) saying that it was 'fairly effective'. o Of those who are not using e-learning more than one quarter (27%) plan to do so over the next year. In those organisations that are using e-learning. E-learning came next to bottom with 7% of respondents including it as one of the three – in-house development programmes and coaching attracted 55% and 53% respectively. Optimism for the future of e-learning is rife. This phenomenon ‘we’ll all get it right over the next three years’ has been observed in previous CIPD surveys and earlier ASTD surveys. The figure recorded for the United States in 2006 by the American Society of Training and Development (ASTD) was 30% . Respondents to the survey were asked 'which of the following training and development practices do you believe are most effective?' and were invited to choose three practices from an extended list.
The UK e-learning Market 67 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .
and asks whether shifts in the learning and development profession’s attitude to e-learning suggests that the profession itself is changing At first glance the CIPD 2008 Learning and Development survey is a mess of contradictions on e-learning. the question could have made sense. Just 7% of those polled regard it as among the most effective learning and development practices. For them. e-learning is now simply regarded as part of the learning mix. The intelligent customer has arrived. for example. there was huge interest in e-learning. And the message is simple: for those that use it. with just 14% agreeing strongly. E-learning is a medium of delivery. which might smack of woolly thinking. In 2002. In this survey in 2002. 64% believe it is ‘fairly effective’. e-learning essentially meant the The UK e-learning Market 68 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . a figure that six years later has dropped to 38%. Six years ago. classroom delivery and book-based self-study. While only 8% of those who use e-learning as a learning and development intervention would rate it as ‘very effective’. The most important thing about these figures is that we can believe them. Any effectiveness depends not on the medium itself. Taylor At the beginning of the decade. Does the interest continue. they reflect actual learning and development practice today. 54% agreed that ‘e-learning involves the possibility of wasting a lot of money’. this phrasing makes no sense. Taylor. Yet these figures. They are not the frothy enthusiasms of vendors and early adopters. because e-learning then implied something quite narrow. and practitioners are increasingly confident with it. this explains why only 7% considered it a ‘most effective’ practice. You might as well ask whether books are an effective learning practice. investigates these questions. Chair of Learning Technologies. and how far has e-learning lived up to expectations so far? Donald H. actually tell a clear story of changing attitudes to learning technologies. Those familiar with e-learning will almost certainly be using it as one part of a delivery strategy that also includes. yet 57% of organisations use it and 27% of the remainder plan to use it within 12 months. but how it is used.Appendix B – Donald H Taylor response to CIPD Report Extract from “Reflections on the CIPD Survey” by Donald H. If people know what they’re doing with e-learning. They are also part of a fundamental change occurring within the learning and development function itself.
Of a list of 13 practices. This explains why 66% of respondents estimate that less than 10% of ‘total training time’ is delivered by e-learning.delivery of courses. or access an online help system. with attendance and assessment data collected by the learning and development. The key statistic here: 65% of respondents strongly agree it is more effective when used with other forms of learning. the wording of these questions invites the respondent to consider the narrow definition of e-learning. or email/IM colleagues for assistance?’. E-learning has come a long way since then. from LMSdelivered courses to electronic performance support systems (EPSS). Again. But if it is being used widely. those polled for this CIPD survey will have taken e-learning to include the much wider range of electronically delivered learning materials available in 2008. though. This broad understanding of the meaning of e-learning will explain why – in spite of the apparent contradiction of only 7% rating it among the most effective training practices – 47% of respondents said they used it more than they did two years ago. the survey suggests that it is not being used very effectively. Although 52% of those using e-learning claim it is ‘offered to’ 75–100% of employees. E-learning is now simply part of the mix. In other words. In the absence of any agreed definition of e-learning. but it is no longer regarded The UK e-learning Market 69 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . this survey shows comprehensively that in practice it has gone through the five stages of the Gartner hype cycle and is now resolutely past the trough of disillusionment and up on the plateau of productivity. ‘taken up’ and ‘total training time’ suggest online courses and the centralised world of the LMS. The very phrases ‘offered to’. If the survey had asked. E-learning added to these the concept of central planning and tracking via the learning management system (LMS). People don’t necessarily find e-learning easy (80% rightly say it requires new skills for learning and development practitioners). it was similar to its predecessor’s computer-based training (CBT) and computerassisted learning (CAL). ‘What proportion of your employees use Google. the results would certainly have been different. to the use of social networks and Google to support informal learning. In 2002. where the questions are not worded to restrict the sense of what e-learning means. this was the third greatest increase. e-learning for most people meant an electronic analogy of the classroom: courses that were centrally prepared or commissioned. In providing materials and a structure for self-study. 57% say that only 0–25% actually ‘take it up’.
When this year’s survey asked for ‘the major change affecting organisational learning and development over the next five years’. 2. Social networking and instant messaging will join tools such as email and ‘webinars’ among technologies that can be used to support learning. Six years ago it excited the profession: 34% agreed with the statement that ‘e-learning will significantly alter our training offerings’. ask yourself what you can do to improve this number. which could still be grouped under the widening banner of ‘elearning’. was: ‘closer integration of learning and development activity and business strategy’. In 2008. It has already moved away from a centralised to a more diffuse idea of learning. and their extension into the learning field will be part of the natural extension of what e-learning means. Implications for practitioners 1. and these new technologies will continue that movement. In his essay for last year’s Reflections report. Don’t do e-learning to tick a box. when asked to identify ‘the major change affecting organisational learning and development over the next five years’. and from centralised ‘push’. They will be part of a trend taking technologysupported learning away from page-turning on the screen to being a social experience. It is difficult to imagine. Most of them will already be familiar. Investigate your organisation’s current informal use of e-learning. If you are one of the 57% of organisations with a 0–25% take-up of e-learning. that any of these tools will have the dramatic impact on perception (if not on reality) that e-learning did in the early part of the decade. Do employees poll peers in other organisations via social networking tools? How much do they use Google? Where can the learning and The UK e-learning Market 70 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . As noted above. The most popular answer. respondents did not answer ‘elearning’. to individually driven ‘pull’. The learning and development professional is just too savvy now. It has taken e-learning about ten years to reach this state of maturity. given the results of this survey in comparison with that of 2003. Charles Jennings of Reuters bemoaned the fact that only 56% of organisations had a written learning and development strategy.as revolutionary. but can do much more besides. consider whether the money could be better spent elsewhere. He pointed out that it would be inconceivable for a chief executive not to have an explicit strategy and suggested that it should be as inconceivable for a learning and development department not to have one either. the CIPD did not even include e-learning among the options offered and nobody mentioned it under the catch-all answer of ‘other’. we can expect other learning technologies to come to the fore. If you cannot. as in every year. And this acceptance of e-learning as one of many tools reflects an important change in the learning and development function’s priorities. significantly ahead of the others.
calendaring and event-related services will become widely popular:… increase in synchronous online classes. Richard E. San Diego State University. You are not alone. belt buckles. what can be sought at the moment of need? How else to determine readiness & eagerness? Allison Rossett. and an instructor would deliver all together. 4. and online access to rich. laptops.development department help in providing swifter access to wellqualified experts. USA Training professionals are accustomed to being at the leading edge of downturns in the economy but this downturn is a genuine game changer. as opposed to more traditional schooling. Thus the need for analysis (now) grows even greater.eLearn Magazine Pressure to reduce costs. conferences. When the ideas. Recommender systems will improve enough to become actually a little bit relevant. or were stale. those educational applications linked most closely to local economic development will predominate… parents will have high interest in ways these devices can foster their children's literacy. and decision support) will be huge. Network with your peers in other organisations to share good practice in the implementation of learning technologies. In the good old days. or exercises veered off mark. How else to anticipate what is needed. what must be committed to memory. Researcher. Countries will begin to see the value of subsidising this type of e-learning. and pedagogical agents. same time and place. The UK e-learning Market 71 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . cloud computing. examples. cars. PDAs. Santa Barbara. University of California. If you don’t have a strategy. USA Alternative interfaces … big this year: more Wii toys hooked up to computers. and virtual machines…. data. concerts. sure sources of information? 3. Establish how learning technologies can provide the data demanded by your organisational learning and development strategy. Appendix D – expert predictions for 2009 . orientation-sensitive interfaces. the instructor fixed it. including new applications of the science of learning to educational games. gesture-based presentation software. USA …cell phone will emerge as the learning infrastructure for the developing world. Chris Dede. appliances will be more connected and data intelligence (summarisation. Technology … favoured over registrations in hotels & hours in classrooms away from customers and clients. even brain-wave and body feedback games… a lot of discussion of identity. National Research Council. and computational portability. Kantian computing also embedded into devices as well: cameras. phones. Mayer. visualisation. Initially. keychains et al. Harvard University. simulations. and other Kantian (time and place based) applications. Stephen Downes. write one. an instructional designer would develop. Canada Researchers will continue to make progress in discovering evidence-based principles for the design of e-learning.
social. Roger Schank. one or two major 2-D virtual classroom vendors to release 3-D environments…. Peru and La Salle. Jane Hart. which I know of.. in Barcelona. Centre for Learning & Performance Technologies.Three trends are worth watching: (1) radical react mode. The increased adoption will be modeled after the Wikipedia-type applications of Pfizer (Pfizerpedia) & the U.0 approaches for informal. Karl Kapp. and abundant educational opportunities—especially the rise of e-learning in both the government and the private sector— eager to spend billions …in 2009 for the delivery and marketing of e-learning programs that have been recognised as essential alternative delivery methods for education & training around the world in this economic crisis.. Processes like ADDIE & classic ID will be used selectively or fragmented due to time and cost pressures. John Evans Professor Emeritus of Computer Science. so get used to all assignments being reactionary and due yesterday. accessible. intelligence community (Intellipedia). Margaret Driscoll. IBM. according to the second president of the United States. Downsized training organisations & one-person consultant firms will find they need to do it all and rely on tools. Spain.. Bloomsburg University. USA … the emergence of new corporate-focused Virtual Learning Worlds (VLWs) or Massively Multi-Learner Online Learning Environments (MMOLEs) (will) nudge out interest in consumer-oriented versions of 3-D worlds that haven't made the adaptation to corporate needs. John Adams. USA Schools will have to offer to train students to do actual jobs and they will do this online.S. MMOLEs will contain elements that make them more corporate-friendly like SCORM compliance and avatar behavior tracking…. Real education. UK … growing population of the world with quality. also be a growing trend toward adopting a top-down approach to using social media in organisations by building a social media/learning strategy and implementing a platform that integrates a number of social media tools for enterprise use. Organisations in crisis don't plan. & collaborative learning & knowledge sharing.is about learning to live and learning to make a living" an idea that got lost between the late 1700s and today. Institute for Interactive Technologies Professor of Instructional Technology. Consultant. to step up to the plate are ISIL in Lima. The first two. CEO Socratic Arts Organisations will no longer be able to afford the production of sophisticated courseware… more reliant on employee-generated content and increasingly appreciate the potential of Web 2.. and temporary alliances with other armies-ofone to survive. and Education. technology. ". and (3) extreme gigs for an army-of-one. Assistant Director. increase in budgets for creating e-learning at the expense of face-to-face learning and an increase in the use of social media in corporations. Social Media & Learning Advisor. (2) fragmented application of ADDIE and ID. Northwestern University.. Psychology. … we find ourselves in a world … where virtual reality puts people inside a computer-generated world and ubiquitous The UK e-learning Market 72 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .
. universities and corporate training centres will need to adjust their policies.." Jay Cross. & Twitter are increasingly being used to provide formal and informal support that has been missing too long from self-paced instruction…. Turkey Free online courses. how long they spend doing what. Editor-In-Chief. Large learning providers and companies that host VLEs will make increasing and better use of the data they have about learner behaviour. USA The risk (to suppliers) of relying on free tools and services in learning will become apparent as small start-ups offering such services fail and as big suppliers switch off loss-making services or start charging for them. Canada …. trend toward teaching language online will continue to mushroom and lead to greater acceptance not just of teaching languages in free and collaborative ways. for example. USA …. Chief Executive of the UK's Association for Learning Technology (ALT). procedures. programmes and universities will increasingly be discussed. programmes and degrees…. debated. Anadolu University. Curt Bonk. Patti Shank. and philosophies related to teaching and learning. E-learning will finally break free of the courses-online model as more people realise the business benefits of networked informal learning. Seb Schmoller. which books they borrow. The Open Educational Resources (OER) movement will strengthen. IM. bounteous learning unprecedented… the journey to this promised land will be brutal and unforgiving for people and organisations who resist change and lobby for "back to the basics. Everyone will be looking at lower cost options for their training and development. will face up to the "cultural" challenges of winning learning providers and teachers to use OER. which online resources they access. Harold Jarche. Turkish Online Journal of Distance EducationTOJDE. administrative and related repetitive tasks are The UK e-learning Market 73 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . high schools. increased interest in open source software as well as tools and methods that enable online collaboration. Learning Peaks. Indiana University.computing forces the computer to live out here in the world with people. opportunities for new technology-enabled educational innovations in which the repetitive routine lecturing. Ugur Demiray. Internet Time Group LLC. In its place will arise a more natural approach to learning through collaboration and sharing… great times ahead: fulfilling. Professor. USA …. UK … the global transition from the industrial age to the network economy will kill off much of the training and education programmes as we have known it. Social interaction and social presence tools such as discussion forums.extremely optimistic about the convergence of "traditional" instruction and support with technology-based instruction and support. but of entire courses. online content is becoming easier to maintain. social networking and resource sharing. and ultimately enrolled in….
It may mean focusing on delivering good product to the customer efficiently and trimming administrative salaries .hiring more faculty. Israel Institute of Technology. or performance goals. Larson. shared) content. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. and deploying innovative technology. training. Instructional designers …. MIT LINC—Learning International Networks Consortium. Peter J. and Visiting Professor. Israel. combination of personal mentoring plus tailored e-learning environments for students could usher in an age of personalised learning analogous to the movement toward personalised health care.will increasingly use newer electronic communication tools such as wikis and social networks as well as older tools such as listservs. Richard C. or as ongoing communities of practice. USA The parallel requirements of thrift and quality—two values traditionally seen at opposite ends of the continuum—will combine to drive a more scalable model for online "eWorking. one small package at a time as needed.replaced with e-learning options. President & Cofounder. Yehudit Judy Dori. CEO. MentorNet. We'll start seeing cloud-hosting as a new vehicle for learning services. Jonathon Levy. as is now common in higher education. Assistant Professor of Instructional Technology & Cocoordinator of Center for Interactive Learning Research (CILR). Clark Quinn. LeveragePoint Innovations. Southern Illinois University. Social networking will become the 'go to' option to drive performance improvements. These tagged "coherent chunks" will be semantically integrated with an organisation's tacit knowledge to form a dynamic user-driven package combining both vetted and open source (contributed. discussion forums and blogs to cultivate learning communities… Whether tethered to distinct courses. USA E-learning could enable campuses to fulfill their obligation to serve the incoming tidal wave (of unemployed learners) by expanding the capacity of their pipelines. USA The UK e-learning Market 74 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . David Porush. not as a major upheaval. Quinnovation. USA I hope for greater government support for e-learning around the world with mentoring for the less privileged communities. Technion. The extraordinary: we'll start realising the power of consistent tagging & being able to meta-process content to do smart things on our behalf. but quietly infiltrating our learning experiences … more use of games as a powerful learning opportunity and tools to make it easier to develop. and the teachers—though fewer in number— will have more opportunities to serve as student mentors…. "Learning" as a discrete activity will take a back seat to the contextual tagging & appearance of appropriate knowledge chunks in support of specific tasks in real time. Inc. Founder & Director. the challenge is to create structures and activities that generate informal content—such as stories from the field—in support of learning. USA The ordinary: Mobile will emerge." Thrift and quality are both needed for online support to be a scalable and acceptable replacement for face-to-face training. Fadde.
…. …. Ignatia Webs. McWeadon. Mobile learning will grow. content and services in order to retain economic growth in the corresponding sector. The eLearning Guild.0. only 20 percent indicate they have a plan for using them on a regular basis for learning.0 tools at all. Early adopters such as Sun Microsystems and the Peace Corp have made changes that move Web 2. international access. USA …. 39 percent of learning professionals say they don't use Web 2. Brent Schlenker. efficient.com. Inge de Waard. as it allows for cost-effective.0 tools to the front-end of the learning path. individuals with specific expertise will be able to offer their unique professional development services throughout the world at a much more affordable cost than traditional academic and training institutions. In a recent Chapman Alliance survey. and an environmentally friendly form of educational and training opportunities. Belgium "The Year of Implementing 2. Chief Learning Strategist & Industry Analyst. Founder & President. USA Learning professionals start to move beyond using Web 2. Khan. companies will intensify their competition over public sector e-learning projects. 41 percent say they use them for "rogue" projects (under the radar screen). Organisations will give special attention to open source during this year. IT has proven a prominent candidate for cost reductions in times of uncertainty. This creates business opportunities for the wider adoption of open source.…). as landlines are skipped in those regions. evolving from an industrial age into a knowledge age. eLearning advisor. Cloud computing will be the dominating factor for e-learning practices. investing in learning will make or break companies and organisations…. Educational policies will enable educational institutions to come to terms with new learning technologies and not banish them bluntly. Bryan Chapman. Chapman Alliance. while still using structured learning (LMS and courseware) as critical components of their learning platforms. … new synergies shall emerge between the The UK e-learning Market 75 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . My advice to the e-learning community: pay close attention to the culture in which you are implementing. so content will become key in 2009. Social media use will increase because it saves money as it keeps knowledge in a central place (quick retrievability. USA …." Previous years spent getting our industry to see new Web technologies as having powerful learning applications.0 only for "rogue. New Media & Emerging Technologies Analyst. Ignoring the impact on culture will be the Achilles' heel of e-learning implementations." informal learning projects and start making proactive plans for how to apply emerging technologies as part of organisation-wide learning strategy. Badrul H. The public sector in mature economies will increase its share of e-learning technologies. free.Education and training via e-learning (increasingly enhanced by the availability of cloud computing) will grow. and user-generated technologies and content for e-learning. especially in developing countries.
a time when more money is spent on training.0 tools will continue to thrive and will be used to facilitate semantic tagging and annotation in already existing content. as well as in cultural and scientific digital resources libraries. (3) companies trying to establish a reputation for being ecofriendly. Matt Bovell. a capability that is quite frankly a little overwhelming when one thinks in terms of interoperability. … as people are released. Research & Development. budgets are provided for the release packages and some of this is spent on training. they will continue to avail themselves of e-learning opportunities. expectations of connected employees and demands for quicker solutions will drive the rest of us to increasingly abandon traditional instructional design in favor of experimentation—creating messy. Spiros Borotis and Angeliki Poulymenakou. UK The UK e-learning Market 76 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . This means they have to spend money on training to provide that differentiation. USA …. American Public University System. Brandon Hall Research. (2) As students attempt to make better use of their time and money. Peter Parker. loosely structured courses supplemented with low-cost social software & old-school support tools like job aids. Phil Ice. place. EPCoT Systems Ltd and Management Consulting Consultant. connectivity. Greece Learning professionals' fears of obsolescence. The full impact of this implementation can be realised when we consider how the array of cloud applications can be leveraged irrespective of time. mashed-up applications existing inside and outside the firewall. device. Many training companies see this time as challenging. craving personalisation. will "go rogue" using tools and creating content that best suit their needs—whether supported by the organisation or not. will use e-learning as part of their green initiatives.traditional public sector IT providers and e-Learning related companies. integrated. In order for corporate learning management systems and talent management systems to thrive. USA I have been exploring frameworks during 2008 that give designers and developers the ability to create applications that can reside both online and on desktops. making it possible to incorporate such content in educational curricula. they too will "go rogue" by putting on their invisibility cloaks and becoming a suite of widget-like. Web 2. Employees. Owner. Vell Group. The reasons are: (1) Good companies (particularly in the financial sector) use training as part of an exit package. etc. This is the level of interconnectivity that will usher in a new paradigm in online learning. Director of Course Design. but not a time to expect a large decrease in training revenue. Athens University of Economics & Business. USA There are three reasons why e-learning will continue to grow in 2009: (1) The economy …more companies will be attempting to achieve cost savings using e-learning technologies. Janet Clarey. (2) Individuals want to distinguish themselves from the market.
com) So. ….. someone has to maintain it. 2. 4. the courses that engage (shock etc) and entertain first. …. the future of e-learning is. hit TV series. LPO or Learning Process Outsourcing will gain momentum in 2009. Consumers will probably not get increasingly sophisticated in building their own training…. both general and highly specific (a la ning. people are losing essential creative skills. e-learning needs to become more like movies or television shows. Open source is simply transferring an up front and usually meagre licence fee for a long term highly specialised labour cost. the learning experiences can easily eclipse that of The UK e-learning Market 77 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . we will see a shift towards web-based managed services provid(ing) recording. E-learning will have to be "sold" to people and will compete directly with the latest movies. etc.. engaging. 5. E-learning is poised to grow because of lowered costs.if things are right. free.… The use of virtual worlds for learning will acquire more importance . Open source is not. transmission. it should mark the beginning of the end for traditional virtual classrooms. 3. The use of the mobile as a learning platform shall see renewed interest . storage. 2.. 1.Adoption of Learning 2. which in many cases ends up creating situations where organisations are completely hamstrung by their IT department/gurus..some key assumptions that are probably wrong. ….0 approaches will start in earnest in the second half of the year. will be the only ones to be efficacious. basic historic and heuristic abilities… to even reach them. media rich with high levels of online facilitator support. Games and simulations will see an increased adoption. and the swarm of competing social networks. increased awareness of potential for incorporating new technologies in enhancing educational content. The primary reason is the availability of the infrastructure worldwide at reduced costs. then educate later. or for that matter facebook apps… pop culture is the actual language people are increasingly speaking.Appendix E Readers’ responses to “Expert” predictions From a number of Universities and the following: Accenture Education VET EscP Consulting Servitium James Cook University International Computer Science Institute Internet Time Group International Islamic University Islamabad . actually. and content management in one site… might even contain experimental media analytics approaches for automatic indexing. If… the online learning is authentic. Someone has to build it. and networking advances already available.
crank ‘em out approaches. but will not save organisations substantially with costs. and away from thoughtful instructional design.. continuous pressures on budgets. Following this approach makes online learning just as expensive as face-to-face although the scalability is better than the traditional approach.you have a training business that will push more learning to the actual workplace and strive to embed learning into tasks.. the predicted frequent job changing of the new generation of employees . …as much a hope as a prediction: the increasing use of social media may create the perfect storm for learners to start taking charge of training offerings and let-me-get-it-myself content. 8. we will see increasing understanding of evidence-based practice but worry that it will be ignored in favour of easier. and based on cost (rather than quality) will increasingly shift old business to new delivery methods. 6. … year for companies to reuse content that they have previously created by starting to utilise EPSS solutions that can provide this information to users at the moment of need. …. It breeds the “convert” (rather than transform)-aclassroom-course-to-online-mentality.. I see this as going beyond traditional performance support and into something much richer. …. Add …. much more customisable. 2009 won’t see the reality of this. social networking. and much more personal. peer-to-peer collaboration and user generated content are among the contributors to the increasing reality of workflow learning. learning at “the moment of need”. Organisations (will) take a hard look at travel and other costs associated with traditional classroom training. the requirement to show business value for training spend (Return on Learning). We face a credit crunch and a knowledge crunch but if we utilise tools effectively we can ensure that the knowledge captured by SME's is shared at the time it is needed 7. Ubiquitous and lessexpensive technology. … a shift toward buying or building whatever is the cheapest instruction.0 and virtual environments will bring outstanding opportunities for formal and informal learning experiences.the classroom. Web 2. Providing immediate assistance to enable individuals to accurately perform a task utilising a combination of resources from a single point of initiation. The UK e-learning Market 78 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . ….... but will move us to this type of ideal. While I welcome the move to increased use of e-learning (as I never did understand how the classroom got to be held in such exalted esteem). we are nearing the do-or-die point for those classroom trainers who have been resisting e-learning. a year where learning is moved more directly into the workflow and out of the classroom…. this isn’t necessarily good.
University of California. Less-democratic processes will lead to a clearer distinction between expert-generated knowledge and the overwhelming quantity of information available everyplace. as well as to create and locate high-quality learning content. However. and I am hopeful that in 2008 it will be easier to learn. at least. and Second Life. National Research Council Canada. US.. VR environments. virtual reality. and online agents that promote appropriate cognitive processing during learning. like Vista. and a 2005 paper on ISD. will be abandoned for more open commercial alternatives rather than free and open source software and content. Stephen Downes. Mayer. And we saw attempts. But none of these made it easier to discern information quality. Grade: D Basic research did occur in 2008. the growth of Citizendium and. iTunes.Appendix F How did they do last year? Seb Schmoller reviews 2008’ expert predictions Lisa Neal Gualtieri. raising millions of dollars for social and political causes. of course. eLearn Magazine. the Britannica Blog. Predicted: The "middle path"—proprietary lock-in services. Facebook. and pedagogical agents. time is one of our most valuable resources. such as social networking to make meaningful connections as opposed to demonstrating popularity. people will "peer" into each others' networks or The UK e-learning Market 79 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Predicted: Better prioritisation will lead to more purposeful activities. including which instructional features promote which kinds of learning for which learners. and Blog on education. Ph. Grade: B Social networking came into its own in 2008. Santa Barbara. Ultimately. but it is far less clear that we saw any particular advance in our understanding of how to design e-learning environments (unless you consider practical work such as CCK08 or Jokadia or Wikiducator). . Basic research on learning and instruction will provide new guidance for instructional design. it is tempting to focus on advances in technology—such as the use of games. Researcher. So generally a prediction demands specific results.D. and this just did not happen in 2008. Richard E. Gagne's nine steps. Editor-in-Chief. making it easier to discern information quality. "Personal networks" will be created by individuals to manage and share their contacts and information sources. Predicted: When considering innovations in e-learning for 2008. to popularise 'less democratic' processes in the writings of Andrew Keen. the most important innovations in e-learning will involve advances in our understanding of how to design e-learning environments that help people learn—such as how to design serious games. and it didn't become appreciably easier to learn or locate high quality content. Looking up "Basic research on learning and instruction will provide new guidance for instructional design" on Google tells us the current state of affairs: an old ITForum paper on information age learning. as it does every year.
0. But be careful when you get to Web 3.0" will be appended to almost everything. Personal networks were created but. Grade: C While people avoided Vista like the plague. hierarchies will crumble as executives see the speed at which Web-savvy new hires penetrate silos. in fairness. Grade: C+ This prediction is essentially a projection of three existing trends.S. Useful libraries and indices of open academic content will appear. as seen through ebbs of interest in performance support and workflow training. Predicted: I see these trends emerging: (1) continued integration of e-learning into the broader.0. none of which demonstrated any particular strength. for the most part. everyday context of learning. CEO. Third Life. Performance 2.in. pushing commercial providers to offer some free content just to stay in the game. Yes. were not used to create filtered feeds." Finally. Some companies will mash them together and put it all under a CPO (Chief People Officer. Saul Carliner. Concordia University. Yes. coupled with a known future event (the conversion to HD) and the projection of a very likely one (the win by Blu-Ray). and even Google Search 2. and talent management . knowledge management. Many government agencies will require that funded materials be made openly accessible. commercial publishers leaned toward free. and get things done. Graduate Program in Educational Technology. Grade: D Yes. knowledge management. and the hi-def DVD format-war seemingly being won by Sony's Blu-Ray technology. E-learning. Get ready for LMS 2.o and Search 2.all in 2007 or earlier. competences and skills databases. Canada. released December 20. is a start).0.0 . open academic publishing will have its strongest year. talk directly with customers.subscribe to filtered versions of each others' network feeds. Associate Professor. Facebook or Second Life (though. but mostly were used to make phone calls. Internet Time Group. for example. (2) increasing interest in informal learning (and. The number of Open Access mandates increased. and talent management will continue to converge. nobody was abandoning iTunes. we got LMS 2. Jay Cross. corporate communications.) Finally. listen to music and download apps from an app store. only limited incremental practical developments). Devices were synched. The best part of the prediction is the observation that the increased interest in performance support and workflow learning would result in only limited practical developments. corporate communications.0s. . the criticisms did begin to mount). we saw the Chief The UK e-learning Market 80 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Digital devices will be synched using online services that will offer a publishing option for "live updating. we saw a convergence of e-learning. No credit for predicting past events. USA Predicted: The suffix "2.0.0. but useful indices did not emerge (though ticTOCs. and the other 3. and (3) a somewhat increased interest in digital video for learning as a side benefit of both the early 2009 transition from analog TV to HDTV in the U. Performance 2.
Director of the Usability Center and Professor of Information Design. e-Literate weblog. Indiana University. Very There Consulting. more attention needs to be paid to the question of usability. Young people were a dominant influence on the U. even if the meaning is in the eye of the beholder. And the U. Grade: A Detailed and specific predictions. News and World Report 2008 Best Careers issue puts "usability/user experience specialist" on its list of top careers with bright futures. USA Predicted: The WOW factor is upon us. Also. Sakai.0 tools. 2008 will be a blockbuster year for the participation of young people in the United States elections. sweeping established candidates and pitting a choice between 'change' and 'maverick'. A recent two-part story on NPR reported that one in five students is now taking courses via distance learning. hierarchies didn't crumble in 2008 . Carol Barnum. thanks in part to the use of Web 2. Blackboard will show measureable market-share loss for the first time.0 sites to educate them on the issues and to mobilise them.S.S. Grade: D We saw a video on YouTube and a paper at E-Learn but no significant up tick in the importance of usability in online learning and certainly no sign of the two spheres merging. there was little mention of usability in the same conversation as e-learning. for example. A fad that didn't become a trend. Economic and geo-political instabilities will lead more people to seek new employment credentials.S. USA Predicted: This year we will see universities begin to provide institutional support for Facebook and other Web 2. Now it comes up. But most of all. With the growing interest in e-learning and the growing prospects for usability specialists. all of which came true. not as replacements for the LMS but as adjuncts to them. A few years ago. election. but Moodle and Sakai will benefit disproportionately. At Wal-Mart. meanwhile. as people in their 60s look for second careers or life enrichment. Blackboard did lose market share. Mark Notess.though just about everything else did. author.People Officer. The steep growth of baby boomer "first retirements" will also fuel the trend. but with only a 'B' for job prospects and on the bubble.0 tools. In 2004. With so many students learning online. All LMS vendors will benefit. Southern Polytechnic State University. But. with Moodle benefiting. here's an interesting point. particularly to understanding the user's experience. The Open University. and member of eLearn Magazine's Editorial Advisory Board. maintains only a sliver of the market. USA Predicted: 2008 will be a banner year for distance learning enrolments. was one of many institutions to develop a Facebook application. All LMS vendors adapted web 2. which could signal convergence: U. there is indeed optimism that the two spheres will not only overlap but merge. news and World Report Chart? Usability specialist is still on it. Michael Feldstein. The distance learning build-out of the past several years will The UK e-learning Market 81 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .
but The UK e-learning Market 82 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . In fact. Bloomsburg University. Angeliki Poulymenakou. Researcher. Grade: BBonus marks for predicting economic instabilities (geo-political instabilities are a given). The rest of the prediction was too vague to evaluate. everything I could find (such as this article and reports such as this and this) showed that while enrolments were up. Regarding the use of e-learning in Europe. What does it mean to say that a build-out ' will come into its own"? And while there may have been "persistent learner-experience issues" but we don't know what they were. USA Predicted: Content within corporations and universities is going to become more and more disaggregated and learner created. Assistant Director." in that what is traditionally thought of as a course will really be the efforts of an instructional designer to assemble disaggregated pieces of related content into a coherent flow for novice learners or learners who are not comfortable with assembling the content themselves for whatever reason. Formalised "instructional design" will begin to look more like "instructional assembly. continuing a trend that has been evident for several years. Grade: BContent did become more disaggregated and learner created. as well as for ensuring the provision of equal opportunities.come into its own. Institute for Interactive Technologies and Professor of Instructional Technology.e. and there was no indication that attrition was more or less an issue this year over previous years. i. No corporate version of YouTube emerged. both at Athens University of Economics and Business. entries on blogs. Truly valuable content will be found as short videos on YouTube. Penalty for non-falsifiability: if valuable content were housed on a learning management system. These issues will generate new research and experimentation. Grade: C Quality continued to be a challenge for e-learning content in new media. maybe in a few years. Moreover.0 will create new challenges for the quality of e-learning content. e. Facebook and MySpace. will provide new and alternative ways of rapid e-learning through various applications and groups. an emerging field concerns the support for contemporary employment arrangements like flexicurity. they were not dramatically up.g. TeacherTube previously emerged. this would not be evident to the wider internet. I predict a corporate version of YouTube will emerge just as the academic version. Assistant Professor in Information Systems. and Spiros Borotis. emerging online social communities. but some of the persistent learner-experience issues will contribute to continuing high attrition. Greece Predicted: The proliferation of e-learning 2. resulting (eventually) in major improvements to both program management and technology platforms. As for distance enrollments. none will be housed in a Learning Management System. the need to create meaningful support structures to assist learners navigating through and evaluating the plethora of new user-created forms of learning resources. Karl Kapp. 'Instructional assembly' did not emerge as a wide practice. or a favourite page on a wiki.
Indiana University. will dominate. Head. including those that specialise in instructional videos like TeacherTube. USA Predicted: The Semantic Web is beginning to spread. as well as aggregators like SuTree. VoiceThread failed. It's already being used underneath a few popular Web sites. Within a couple of years. that spread simply hasn't been happening. Europe did establish a commission on Flexicurity. James Hendler. Grade: D Not to put too fine a point on it. and educational Web site providers will need to start learning more about this technology. Grade: BWhile open source and free tools were important. TeacherTube. and not the year of the Semantic Web at all. as noted. as will VoiceThread..no new challenges emerged. My prediction for the coming year is that users will start noticing more Web sites that seem to offer more views of more data and that they will be able to make more of their preferences known to applications. Curt Bonk. Tools like Gcast and Gabcast will make podcasting even easier. though it remained popular. the need for them did not grow appreciably in 2008. Here are some tools which I think will do well. Slideshare remained strong. USA Predicted: There is a distinct shift recently from the clamour over a particular technology or Web 2. Professor. Tetherless World Constellation Chair. but not at any increased pace from preceding years. Jane Hart. New facebook applications and groups supporting learning were created. Prof.0 tool to how they can be combined for multiThe UK e-learning Market 83 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . UK Predicted: Open source and other free tools will continue to dominate the e-learning market. but has slipped a bit. which was the year of Ajax and the mashup. not while content creation tools like Camtasia and conferencing tools like Elluminate still dominate their sectors. Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. And for years. but otherwise discussion of the concept seems to have slowed in 2008. Gcast and Gabcast/ Nowhere to be found. and there are a large number of startups springing up in the area. While support systems for learners would be useful. Centre for Learning & Performance Technologies. but predictions that the semantic web will spread have been around for years. Same in 2008. this will become expected of educational systems. or even better. and no new systems were created (it's interesting that in 2008 user-created resources were largely ignored by most commentators). especially library systems. Slideshare (with narrated presentations) will go from strength to strength. but these will be used to create simple informational types of e-learning rather than complex instructional solutions. it is hard to say that they "dominated" the e-learning market . has been dropping. in 2008: Google Docs (now that it has embeddable presentation functionality). languishing at 23 on Hart's list. Google Docs didn't enjoy a good year.not while commercial systems such as Blackboard and Desire2Learn are still viable. Computer Science Dept. SuTree. Following from a 2006 report. YouTube and other video sites.
And nothing new on jonathonlevy. Jonathon Levy. No new developments over and above the general background noise that has existed for years. Chief Executive of the UK's Association for Learning Technology (ALT). teachers. Much of our work in 2008 will address RFPs for new models of performance-based learning both from companies and universities! We are responding to requests for capture of tacit knowledge. and companies like Accenture had launched human performance groups. England Predicted: My predictions for 2008: Effective use of RSS by learners. The hype surrounding social networking will abate. There are Facebook groups for Second Life educators. Grade: C Some marks for predicting the clamour over combining things (no points for the undefined 'multi-pedagogical and multi-technological experiences'). Certainly. classes creating wikibooks with students from around the world." We see a growing market for innovative "smart tools" that transcend "e-learning" and imbed new knowledge acquisition into the context of doing actual work. people blogging on their Second Life adventures and putting up related pictures in Flicker. with a greater understanding developing about when social networking supports learning and when it is a distraction. and begin to rely instead on cheaper. and learning providers will become more normal. making a big difference for users with only intermittent Internet access. A new term for these "mash-ups" will emerge in 2008 in various training and education sectors to help focus on the wealth of learning-related aspects or possibilities that can now be realised. USA It appears the moment we've been anticipating may be arriving. But beyond the usual level of hype for things like Second Life (which even dropped off a bit in 2008) there was no particular emphasis on simulation or immersion in learning. The same with workplace learning and EPS systems. Senior Learning Strategist. Yet another multi-pedagogical/multitechnological example is when college students collect sounds from different cities or locations and index them using Google maps. it wasn't really evident. Meanwhile the offline capabilities of browser-based applications like Google Reader will grow. The UK e-learning Market 84 © Learning Light Limited 2009 .pedagogical and multi-technological experiences. No new term for 'mash-up' came into being in 2008. lighter. and integration of resident expertise that people carry in their heads into a semantic knowledge ecosystem. it had been talked about for some time. There also seems to be recognition that there is no longer time for learning activities to be separate from the "doing. descriptions of the state of affairs (at the end of 2007). Seb Schmoller.com after 2006. with their "stuff" stored somewhere on the Internet rather than locally. And many more people will break free from Windows or OSXbased systems. disk-free devices. And 'smart systems'. Facebook groups established to generate research on YouTube. Monitor Group. The long second and third sentences are not predictions. but rather. Grade: D If there was a new market in performance-based learning. which have these learners blog on their progress and create pod casts of their final products.
wasn't spot on. medium (30 minutes of a class). and collaborative attributes. MIT Learning Interactive Networks Consortium (LINC) and Mitsui Professor. Incorporating open learning content into courses? Sure .they were called learning objects or information objects. But cheaper. the popularity of the term 'creepy treehouse').Grade: B+ Pretty good predictions. this really is a surprising submission. MIT. "The companies that rushed to set up bases within the cult virtual world of Second Life appear to have wasted their time as many have shut down and others are "ghost towns". As 2008 progressed.all that was tried with MERLOT years ago. More learners. organisations like Reuters had bailed and Second Life was fading from the mainstream. diskfree devices were huge in 2008. Margaret Driscoll. virtual. Engineering Systems. the jury is out on whether it was used more effectively.nothing new there (and not any easier. Grade: AHard to say that this prediction. The concept of 'snippets' was "invented" long before 2008 . distributed. The content can be incorporated into class-based or distancebased courses. teachers and providers used RSS. or— preferably—by market forces guided by user comments prominently displayed. and the numbers were not staggering. though narrow. with criticisms about the appropriateness of using Facebook in learning becoming more common (also. Director. Managing Consultant. USA Predicted: The e-learning buzz for 2008 is virtual reality (VR) for training (the 3-D variety). Off-line browsing capacities did improve. Google pulled the plug on Lively. a lack of adequate funding and time to execute. an The UK e-learning Market 85 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Industry pundits are selling decision makers on VR's immersive. and no grounding in educational practice or theory. The hype around social networking didn't abate appreciably. Look for a rush to create a VR training program. IBM. Richard Larson. USA Predicted: The year 2008 will be the year in which open source educational materials will be co-invented by educators from around the world and will be as easily uploaded onto a searchable website as are the videos on YouTube. Quality control can be maintained either by official moderators. actually gaining ground by occupying the OLPC platform. either). it was clear Second Life had peaked in 2007. Grade: F The YouTube of open leaning materials? Didn't happen? Quality control mechanisms? Nope . and the whole quality-review thing just isn't catching on. lighter. By the end of it. but it leveled off. but the impact was limited. or large (one week's worth of work). This stuff is so cool that mainstream TV shows like "CSI: NY" have an option called "Second Live Virtual Experience. VR is Valhalla for die-hard constructivists." Recall the e-learning tsunami of hype and you will quickly see the parallels. For a prediction. and MTV is already in season three of "Virtual Laguna Beach." Sears has a prototype store. Each educational entry can be small (an educational "snippet"). Windows and OSX proved more resilient than predicted.
Quinnovation. Yes. Grade: D Telling us what you are going to talk about for the next year is a bit of a cheap dodge. Why this critical skill isn't considered a must-have has me scratching my head. One oh-so-hopeful prediction: Instructional design programmes will begin teaching instructional designers to write. in the hands of capable instructional designers. and Flashform). It helps when somebody explicitly identifies cases where your prediction is being realised. (2) ask why/how standards like SCORM stay important/relevant as de facto Web standards like AJAX. President. Continuing to define "mobile learning" mainly by it association with one class of technology (cell phones) will have a similar effect. A prediction that is a question is definitely a dodge. USA Predicted: Learning content. Grade: BThere's no real indication that instructional design programmes began teaching instructional designers to write. Lectora. visual devices.Australian researcher has found. REST. Also. (3) continue to watch as gaming design and instructional design talk past each other and fail to find a satisfactory hybrid solution. Designers are beginning to help others author content and that should leave the more complex projects. activity. where quality of instruction and assurance of skills is needed. distantly second. It's not all a wash though. predicting that things will not happen is also a bit of a dodge. Adobe Captivate and Articulate Presenter) and tools with a longer learning curve that are really excellent (for example. Innovation Investigator and Gaming Specialist. There are great tools with a short learning curve (for example. USA Predicted: The UK e-learning Market 86 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . Clark Quinn. please someone tell me). Savvy instructional designers are starting to realise that they cannot be involved in the development of all instructional content in their organisations. USA Predicted: I predict that I will: (1) continue to look for social networking functionality to become integrated into e-learning platforms. web 2." Mark Oehlert. and assessment authoring tools continue to improve. and SOAP seem to address the same issues in a more complete way (and if I am wrong here. but this was announced prior to 2008. Saying that the tools will improve is kind of like throwing rocks at trees in a forest. Patti Shank. Defense Acquisition University. Learning Peaks LLC.0 technologies were integrated into e-learning platforms. (4) continue to argue that mobile learning (as opposed to "immobile learning?") will not cross into the mainstream as long as we continue to fail to adapt our design to the fact that most mobile devices are first audio devices and. And designers have been helping others author content for many years now (these days you find mostly instructional design tools intended to assist authors).
But this year social networks for sharing what you know informally and personally will be the big news. Grade: C The key aspect of Sumerian classrooms. and YouTube roared to life and gained prominence while search engines continued to grow their dominance by becoming the learning tool of choice for individuals. It was certainly more popular. at least according to Porush (who The UK e-learning Market 87 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . What has changed most stunningly is the breadth and instantaneity of our informal learning. continue to bypass corporate-structured learning while individuals continue to vote with their virtual feet while creating relevant content on their own. David Porush." Both: Exciting new Web 2. colleges and universities faced funding cuts. the first PCs"—all inspired millennial prophecies of revolutions in learning. And with the crash in the fall.0 applications kept appearing. expect the learning industry to continue to struggle to remain relevant as these technologies. Grade: B+ The learning industry struggled to stay relevant. Co-founder and Chairman. Did mLearning cross the chasm? That's a bit of a judgment call. The simple fact is that most people still learn formally in classrooms very similar to the Sumerians' of 3200 B." Radio. competing demands for attention will drive people to single-source as much of their learning as possible. all-dancing solution" but didn't find one (I even left out the singing and the dancing). and more organisations will take a wise perspective toward using technology to populate the "performance ecosystem. We haven't seen the move toward singlesource learning. Grade: BI searched high and low for a 2008 announcement of "a total LMS/CMS/Portal/eCommunity all-singing. Canada Predicted: Somehow in 2007 the power of the human touch passed the learning industry by when FaceBook. with most activity in the form of pilot projects and test runs. but not arguably mainstream. but we won't be better at avoiding hype and looking for real learning affordances. Microsoft Learning. Ben Watson. USA New gadgets and communications tech tease us with visions that "it's all gonna change. MySpace. My prediction? Formal learning will still take place in classrooms or virtual simulacra of classrooms.at least for the next few weeks. Ironically. all-dancing solution will be announced. though iTunes is definitely offering itself as a candidate. Director. and others.The cynical: There will continue to be "eLearning Solutions Providers" with no one on the executive/management team who really understands learning. And we began to see a shift in emphasis from institutions creating learning to students creating their own learning. Exciting web 2. television. but arguably the economic crash has made us a lot better at avoiding hype .C. SpongeFish. learning was first on the chopping block and schools. a total LMS/CMS/Portal/eCommunity all-singing. Many training departments failed their organisations. In 2008. The optimistic: mLearning will cross the chasm this year.0 applications will keep appearing. but it still won't be the answer.
By the end of the year. Vice-President. and. This will lead some to question. and those who simply predicted 'more of the same' (more social networks. More studies will show the positive learning effects of games. What's missing thus far to any great degree is the questioning. and obviousness being the main culprits. It's likely that in 2009 the people who based their predictions around the current economic crisis will meet a similar fate. the validity of using games to teach. and are not used. generating some debate. you probably missed that. with lack of specificity. many corporations will jump on this exciting new bandwagon. reinforcing certain pathways. And what will technology do in the mean time? If you focused on the economic downturn. just as in the early days of e-learning. more YouTube.appears to be the primary source for such references) is that "The discipline of the schoolchildren being tutored in script 'canalises' their thought processes. people who do not know what they are doing will create games that do not teach effectively. Grade: A Games received a lot of attention in 2008 and. A more concrete prediction would have been helpful here. once again. Were social networks for learning big news in 2008? Not particularly more than most anything else. a concept that gained ground steadily in 2008. as practitioners quote positive ROI from serious games that far exceed the ROI provided by other forms of e-learning. but specific claims were made. Just a matter of time." Formal learning can still be contrasted with informal learning. studies showed the positive effects of learning from games. In addition. Red Hot Learning. Predictions of an impact amount to predicting past events. other people built ineffective games. do not engage learners. as predicted. though. 2008 was an especially difficult year to predict. Philip Lambert. more mobile learning) tended to fare poorly. Overall. more virtual reality. in particular. Proving ROI was more of a challenge. The UK e-learning Market 88 © Learning Light Limited 2009 . predictions of past events. Canada Predicted: 2008 will be the year that serious games get serious attention from corporate training departments. but identifying the specific impact will be more difficult. it will be apparent that. the predictions were a pretty mixed bag.
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