Figure 1.

Map Showing City Limits, Pico y Placa Restricted Zone, and Monitoring Station
Locations. CO not measured at Los Chillos (G) and Tumbaco (H).



36

Table 1. Summary Statistics for Hourly CO Concentrations (mg/m).

Observations

Mean

Median

Std. Dev.

Min.

Max.

Belisario

42215

0.88

0.77

0.49

4.62

Centro

42172

0.86

0.75

0.49

8.38

42384
41917
42406

0.81
0.58
0.60

0.71
0.50
0.54

0.50
0.36
0.30

0
0
0

5.53
6.51
6.43

Camal

El
Carapungo
Guamani
Indicates

stations inside restricted zone.

Table 2. Correlation Coefficients for Hourly CO Concentrations across

Stations.
Belisario
Belisario
Centro
Camal

El
Carapungo
Guamani
Indicates

Centro

El Camal

Carapungo

Guamani

1
0.53
0.48

1
0.23

1
0.71

0.56
0.38
0.39

0.77
0.51
0.49

stations inside restricted zone.

37

correlation coefficient

.8

.6

.4

.2
0

10

15

20

25

30

distance (km)
between stations inside PyP zone
between stations inside and outside PyP zone
between stations outside PyP zone

Figure 2. Distance between Stations and Correlation of Hourly CO Concentrations.

CO concentrations

1.5

.5
0

10

12

14

16

18

20

hour of day
Weekdays

Saturdays

Sundays

Note: Vertical lines indicate restricted hours: 7:00 - 9:30 am and 4:00 - 7:30 pm.

Figure 3. Diurnal Variation in CO Concentration at Centro.

38

22

24

Belisario

logCO concentrations

.75

.25

-.25

-.75

-1.25
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Centro

logCO concentrations

.75

.25

-.25

-.75

-1.25
2005

2006

2007

2008
El Camal

logCO concentrations

.75

.25

-.25

-.75

-1.25
2005

2006

2007

2008

year
peak-hours

off-peak hours

nighttime hours

Note: Vertical lines indicate the introduction of PyP.

Figure 4a. Annual Averages of log CO for Selected Working-Day HoursStations Inside
Restricted Zone.

39

Carapungo

logCO concentrations

.75

.25

-.25

-.75

-1.25
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2009

2010

2011

2012

Guamani

logCO concentrations

.75

.25

-.25

-.75

-1.25
2005

2006

2007

2008

year
peak-hours

off-peak hours

nighttime hours

Note: Vertical lines indicate the introduction of PyP.

Figure 4b. Annual Averages of log CO for Selected Working-Day HoursStations Outside
Restricted Zone.


40

Table 3. Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with

Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.

Belisario

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

-0.0571***
(0.0122)

-0.0572***
(0.0123)

-0.0596***
(0.0122)

-0.0593***
(0.0101)

-0.1116***
(0.0123)

-0.1101***
(0.0124)

-0.1091***
(0.0123)

-0.1004***
(0.0114)

-0.1372***
(0.0155)

-0.1375***
(0.0154)

-0.1375***
(0.0154)

-0.1462***
(0.0127)

no
no
no

yes
no
no

yes
yes
no

yes
yes
yes


Centro

El Camal

Day-Hour Fixed Effects

Year-Month Fixed Effects
Weather Covariates











Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level.

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

Table 4. Robustness Tests of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days:

DD Estimates for Preferred Specification with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.
Year-Week
Fixed Effects

Symmetric
Sample

Curtailed
Peak Hours

-0.0582***
(0.0100)

-0.0548***
(0.0109)

-0.0552***
(0.0085)

-0.0984***
(0.0114)

-0.0973***
(0.0115)

-0.0844***
(0.0105)

-0.1391***
(0.0130)

-0.1557***
(0.0144)

-0.1463***
(0.0118)


Belisario

Centro

El Camal

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level.

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

41

Table 5. Placebo Tests Using Non-Working Days of Effect of PyP on PeakHours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours
Pollution as Control.
(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

-0.0014
(0.0126)

-0.0027
(0.0127)

-0.0159
(0.0164)

-0.0181
(0.0142)

Centro

-0.0579***
(0.0150)

-0.0590***
(0.0148)

-0.0605***
(0.0147)

-0.0485***
(0.0134)

El Camal

-0.0534**
(0.0170)

-0.0560***
(0.0167)

-0.0611***
(0.0169)

-0.0321
(0.0167)

no
no
no

yes
no
no

yes
yes
no

yes
yes
yes

Belisario

Day-Hour Fixed Effects

Year-Month Fixed Effects
Weather Covariates











Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level.

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.




Table 6. Placebo Tests Using Stations Outside Restricted Zone of Effect of PyP on PeakHours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as
Control.

Carapungo

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

-0.0683***
(0.0116)

-0.0674***
(0.0114)

-0.0675***
(0.0113)

-0.0346**
(0.0120)

0.0029
(0.0091)

0.0025
(0.0091)

0.0026
(0.0090)

0.0089
(0.0096)

no
no
no

yes
no
no

yes
yes
no

yes
yes
yes


Guamani

Day-Hour Fixed Effects

Year-Month Fixed Effects
Weather Covariates








Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level.

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

42



Table 7. Effect of PyP on Evening Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD

Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.

Belisario

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

-0.0438**
(0.0166)

-0.0443**
(0.0167)

-0.0451**
(0.0166)

-0.0622***
(0.0124)

-0.1159***
(0.0168)

-0.1164***
(0.0168)

-0.1160***
(0.0168)

-0.1101***
(0.0138)

-0.0875***
(0.0195)

-0.0879***
(0.0193)

-0.0879***
(0.0192)

-0.1297***
(0.0138)

no
no
no

Yes
No
No

yes
yes
no

yes
yes
yes


Centro

El Camal

Day-Hour Fixed Effects

Year-Month Fixed Effects
Weather Covariates











Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level.

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

Table 8. Placebo Tests Using Stations Outside Restricted Zone of Effect of PyP on
Evening Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours
Pollution as Control.

Carapungo

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

0.0177
(0.0152)

0.0191
(0.0150)

0.0203
(0.0149)

0.0018
(0.0139)

0.0195
(0.0196)

0.0197
(0.0197)

0.0195
(0.0197)

0.0004
(0.0191)

no
no
no

yes
no
no

yes
yes
no

yes
yes
yes


Guamani

Day-Hour Fixed Effects

Year-Month Fixed Effects
Weather Covariates








Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level.

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

43



Table 9. Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days: Pooled DD and

DDD Estimates.
(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Pooled DD Inside

-0.1018***
(0.0095)

-0.1014***
(0.0095)

-0.1021***
(0.0095)

-0.1017***
(0.0081)

Pooled DD Outside

-0.0324***
(0.0079)

-0.0322***
(0.0078)

-0.0323***
(0.0077)

-0.0127
(0.0083)

Pooled DDD

-0.0693***
(0.0100)

-0.0691***
(0.0101)

-0.0699***
(0.0101)

-0.0890***
(0.0104)

no
no
no
no

yes
yes
no
no

yes
yes
yes
no

yes
yes
yes
yes

Station FE
Station-Specific Day-Hour FE
Station-Specific Year-Month FE
Station-Specific Weather Covariates











Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster.
* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

Table 10. Robustness Tests of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on

Working Days: DDD Estimates for Preferred Specification.

Pooled
DDD

Year-Week
Fixed Effects

Symmetric
Sample

Curtailed
Peak Hours

Without
Carapungo

-0.0878***
(0.0102)

-0.0822***
(0.0111)

-0.0648***
(0.0077)

-0.1062***
(0.0114)

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster.
* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

44

Table 11. Effect of PyP on Pollution Inside Restricted Zone on Working Days:
DD Estimates with Pollution Outside Restricted Zone as Control.

Peak Hours
(7 9 am and 4 7 pm)
Between Peak Hours
(10 am 3 pm)
Extended Daytime Hours
(6 am 8 pm)
Nighttime Hours
(9 pm 5 am)
Station FE
Station-Specific Day-Hour FE
Year-Month FE
Station-Specific Weather Covariates

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

-0.1330***
(0.0227)
-0.0671*
(0.0295)
-0.0971***
(0.0238)
0.1185***
(0.0317)

-0.1332***
(0.0228)
-0.0690*
(0.0297)
-0.0971***
(0.0240)
0.1201***
(0.0320)

-0.1330***
(0.0229)
-0.0675*
(0.0297)
-0.0965***
(0.0240)
0.1214***
(0.0323)

-0.1121***
(0.0233)
-0.0044
(0.0341)
-0.0653*
(0.0257)
0.1362***
(0.0340)

no
no
no
no

yes
yes
no
no

yes
yes
yes
no

yes
yes
yes
yes

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster.
* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

Table 12. Robustness Tests of Effect of PyP on Pollution Inside Restricted Zone on
Working Days: DD Estimates for Preferred Specification with Pollution Outside
Restricted Zone as Control.

Peak Hours
(7 9 am and 4 7 pm)
Between Peak Hours
(10 am 3 pm)
Extended Daytime Hours
(6 am 8 pm)
Nighttime Hours
(9 pm 5 am)

Year-Week
Fixed Effects

Symmetric
Sample

Curtailed
Peak Hours

-0.1156***
(0.0232)
-0.0124
(0.0338)
-0.0681**
(0.0255)
0.1309***
(0.0343)

-0.1189***
(0.0255)
0.0131
(0.0378)
-0.0642*
(0.0281)
0.0811*
(0.0358)

-0.1436***
(0.0237)

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster.
* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

45

Table 13. Placebo Tests Using Non-Working-Days of Effect of PyP on Pollution

Inside Restricted Zone on Working Days: DD Estimates with Pollution Outside
Restricted Zone as Control.
(1)
Peak Hours
(7 9 am and 4 7 pm)
Between Peak Hours
(10 am 3 pm)
Extended Daytime Hours
(6 am 8 pm)
Nighttime Hours
(9 pm 5 am)
Station FE
Station-Specific Day-Hour FE
Year-Month FE
Station-Specific Weather Covariates

(2)

(3)

(4)

-0.0480

-0.0495

-0.0526

-0.0424

(0.0274)
-0.0629
(0.0332)
-0.0496
(0.0284)
0.0949*
(0.0376)

(0.0278)
-0.0622
(0.0335)
-0.0504
(0.0288)
0.0945*
(0.0380)

(0.0279)
-0.0667*
(0.0338)
-0.0536
(0.0289)
0.1026**
(0.0374)

(0.0273)
-0.0359
(0.0372)
-0.0429
(0.0297)
0.0892*
(0.0390)

no
no
no
no

yes
yes
no
no

yes
yes
yes
no

yes
yes
yes
yes

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level, with all stations in the same cluster.
* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

Table 14. Change in 2012 of Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working

Days: DD Estimates with Off-Peak-Hours Pollution as Control.
Pre-2012
Effect of PyP

Change in Effect
in 2012

Total Effect
in 2012

Belisario




-0.0714***
(0.0110)

0.0321*
(0.0126)

-0.0394**
(0.0128)

Centro




-0.1155***
(0.0124)

0.0408**
(0.0139)

-0.0747***
(0.0143)

El Camal




-0.1545***
(0.0147)

0.0221
(0.0157)

-0.1324***
(0.0147)

Pooled




-0.1135***
(0.0091)

0.0317**
(0.0102)

-0.0819***
(0.0099)

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level.

* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

46

Belisario
El Camal
Carapungo
Los Chillos
Belisario
El Camal
Carapungo
Los Chillos
Belisario
El Camal
Carapungo
Los Chillos
Belisario
El Camal
Carapungo
Los Chillos

Wind Direction
(angular degree)

Precipitation
(millimeters)

Solar Radiation
(watts per square meter)

Atmospheric Pressure
(millibars)
43302
43493
43194
43344

43488
43551
43444
43388

43712
43716
43616
43575

42845
43246
42972
43269

43349
43334
43438
43336

43469
43536
43427
43347

43470
43534
43417
43350

Observations

726.06
726.38
742.55
759.09

192.53
196.51
211.76
214.46

0.14
0.15
0.08
0.16

146.71
150.41
250.55
196.63

1.78
1.82
1.73
1.57

70.95
69.95
73.23
72.89

13.68
13.94
14.32
15.53

Mean

726.18
726.32
742.48
759.43

10
2.08
2.97
1.72

0
0
0
0

149.49
159.82
269.93
182.83

1.56
1.58
1.27
1.20

72.68
72.58
77.39
79.40

12.82
13.06
13.11
14.13

Median

1.34
4.27
1.58
2.03

286.87
291.14
300.90
317.73

0.88
1.04
0.68
1.21

91.23
93.83
84.70
110.29

0.91
0.97
1.26
1.10

19.67
17.40
18.42
21.40

3.21
2.99
3.43
4.13

Std. Dev.

721.22
720.24
736.45
745.89

0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0

0
0.01
0
0

0
0.02
0.02
0

4.94
8.60
7.69
10.96

5.98
7.06
6.22
5.40

Min.

743.20
865.75
749.91
765.57

1250.68
1237.35
1289.26
1279.65

47.90
45.20
37.40
45.50

360
360
359.99
360

14.63
6.71
9.66
9.24

100
98.51
100
100

23.66
23.84
24.71
27.87

Max.

47

Notes: Meteorological data for Belisario and Los Chillos are used for Centro and Guamani, respectively. Wind direction is converted to one of eight
dummy variables representing the eight principal wind directions.
Indicates stations inside restricted zone.

Belisario
El Camal
Carapungo
Los Chillos

Wind Speed
(meters per second)

El Camal
Carapungo
Los Chillos

Belisario

Belisario
El Camal
Carapungo
Los Chillos



Relative Humidity
(percent)

Temperature
(Celsius)



Table A-1. Summary Statistics for Meteorological Variables.

Appendix

0.3867***
(0.0093)

-0.1096***
(0.0278)

-0.2025***
(0.0190)
18168
0.1384

Peak

After

Constant

N
Adj. R2

Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday

0.0935**
(0.0357)

0.0543
(0.0364)

0.0574
(0.0367)

-0.0280
(0.0360)

-0.0537
(0.0364)

-0.0069
(0.0369)

10

11

12

13

14

15

Day-of-Week

20

0.2185***
(0.0330)

Weather Variables

Indicatorsb

19

0.3911***
(0.0296)

48

0.1522***
(0.0277)

0.0607*
(0.0277)

0.0389
(0.0277)

0.1197***
(0.0266)

0.1850***
(0.0317)

0.3231***
(0.0314)

0.3044***
(0.0340)

(Relative Humidity)3

(Relative Humidity)2

Relative Humidity

(Solar Radiation)4

(Solar Radiation)3

(Solar Radiation)2

Solar Radiationc

Temperature4

Temperature3

Temperature2

0.2014***
(0.0342)

17
18

Temperature

0.1086**
(0.0344)

16

0.5172***
(0.0242)

-0.1004***
(0.0114)

Hour-of-Day Indicatorsa

Peak*After

Panel 2: Preferred Specification. Estimates for year-month fixed effects and day-of-week/hour-of-day interactions omitted.

-0.1116***
(0.0123)

Peak*After

Panel 1: Simplest Specification

-0.0000*
(0.0000)

0.0014**
(0.0004)

-0.0476**
(0.0140)

-0.0001*
(0.0000)

0.0020*
(0.0009)

-0.0143*
(0.0067)

0.0503*
(0.0193)

-0.0001
(0.0000)

0.0034*
(0.0016)

-0.0791*
(0.0366)

0.7209*
(0.3540)

Table A-2. Selected Estimates from Regressions Examining Effect of PyP on Peak-Hours Pollution on Working Days at
Centro: DD with Off-Peak Hours Pollution as Control.

N
NE
E
SE
S

-0.0116
(0.0059)
0.0008
(0.0006)
-0.0000
(0.0000)
0.0050
(0.0113)
-0.0152*
(0.0075)

Precipitation2

Precipitation3

Precipitation4

Precipitation Dummy

Atmospheric Pressure

NW
(Wind Speed)3
(interacted with wind direction)
N
NE
E
SE

-0.1878
(0.1603)
-0.2043
(0.1579)
-0.1855
(0.1481)
-0.0609
(0.1407)
-0.0567
(0.1726)
0.7842**
(0.2845)
17770
0.6770

NE

SE

SW

N
Adj. R2

Note: Standard errors are clustered at the week level.

a 6 am is the reference time.
b Monday is the reference day.
c Solar radiation is rescaled by dividing by 100.
* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001.

-0.0503
(0.1547)

SW

(Wind Speed)2
(interacted with wind direction)

0.0584**
(0.0189)

Precipitation

Wind Speed
(interacted with wind direction)

NW

0.0000
(0.0000)

(Relative Humidity)4

Table A-2. (Continued)

49

0.0560*
(0.0264)

0.0550*
(0.0278)

0.0327
(0.0286)

0.0644*
(0.0278)

-1.4809***
(0.2775)

-1.4906***
(0.3683)

-0.0779
(0.1250)

-0.1596
(0.0829)

-0.1175
(0.0947)

-0.0980
(0.1035)

-0.0472
(0.1050)

-0.1605
(0.1006)

0.7703**
(0.2476)

Constant

NW

SW

SE

NE

(Wind Speed)4
(interacted with wind direction)

NW

SW

9.3009
(5.6832)

-0.0874***
(0.0171)

-0.0903**
(0.0280)

0.0002
(0.0038)

-0.0036
(0.0019)

-0.0058*
(0.0026)

-0.0062*
(0.0026)

-0.0037
(0.0027)

-0.0069*
(0.0027)

0.6592***
(0.1207)

0.6678***
(0.1798)

0.0124
(0.0372)

0.0496*
(0.0208)