ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE VARIABLES Y PRONOSTICO PARA 4 AOS

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

E(TWh)
13.162
13.901
13.044
14.579
15.843
16.88
17.28
17.954
18.583
19.05
19.923
20.702
21.422
22.142
22.862

METODO DE LOS MINIMOS CUADRADOS

Calculando el "y" de ajuste

xi
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

21945

yi
13.162
13.901
13.044
14.579
15.843
16.88
17.28
17.954
18.583
19.05
19.923

180.199

xi*yi
26192.38
27676.891
25983.648
29055.947
31590.942
33675.6
34490.88
35854.138
37128.834
38080.95
39846

359576.21

xi
3960100
3964081
3968064
3972049
3976036
3980025
3984016
3988009
3992004
3996001
4000000
4004001
4008004
4012009
4016016
4378038
5

y=mx+b
12.781500
13.501545
14.221591
14.941636
15.661682
16.381727
17.101773
17.821818
18.541864
19.261909
19.981955
20.702000
21.422045
22.142091
22.862136

Lnea de tendencia lineal:

GRAFICO 8 CURVA DE TENDENCIA CONSUMO DE ENERGIA

f(x) = 0.4x - 765.35

R = 0.99

n xi yi xi yi
n xi 2 xi

x y x x y
a
n x x
2

i i

y bx a

y = 0.72x
CALCUALMOS LA LINEA DE TENDENCIA PARA POBLACION:

Calculando el "y" de ajuste

xi
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

21945

yi
21.869
21.968
22.334
22.74
23.13
23.532
23.947
24.371
24.801
25.232
25.662

xi*yi
43519.31
43738.288
44489.328
45320.82
46121.22
46946.34
47798.212
48668.887
49552.398
50438.768
51324

259.586

517917.571

xi
3960100
3964081
3968064
3972049
3976036
3980025
3984016
3988009
3992004
3996001
4000000
4378038
5

y=mx+b
21.621409
22.016873
22.412336
22.807800
23.203264
23.598727
23.994191
24.389655
24.785118
25.180582
25.576045

POB(Mill ns)

PRONOSTICO SEGN NUESTRA TENDENCIA LINEAL:

AO
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004

PBI(M
%CREC ill ns %CREC. POB(M %CREC.
E(TW
.E
*10^
PBI
ill ns)
POB
h)
4)
13.16
8.198
2
3
21.869
13.90
1
5.61% 8.376 2.17% 21.968 0.45%
13.04
8.340
4
-6.17%
1
-0.43% 22.334 1.67%
14.57
8.737
9
11.77%
5
4.76% 22.74
1.82%
15.84
9.857
3
8.67%
7
12.82% 23.13
1.72%
10.70
16.88 6.55%
33
8.58% 23.532 1.74%
10.97
17.28 2.37%
09
2.50% 23.947 1.76%
17.95
11.71
4
3.90%
1
6.75% 24.371 1.77%
18.58
11.64
3
3.50%
85
-0.53% 24.801 1.76%
11.75
19.05 2.51%
9
0.95% 25.232 1.74%
19.92
12.12
3
4.58%
67
3.13% 25.662 1.70%
20.70
12.95
25.971
2 3.91%
68
6.85%
51
1.21%
21.42
13.41
26.366
2 3.48%
28
3.52%
97
1.52%
22.14
13.86
26.762
2 3.36%
88
3.40%
44
1.50%
22.86
14.32
27.157
2 3.25%
48
3.29%
9
1.48%

PROMEDIO

4.33%

4.07%

1.61%

PRONOSTICO DE MERCADO ELECTRICO DE MEDIANO PLAZO

(ECONOMETRICO)
1) RECOPILACION ESTADISTICA.
TABLA PLAN REFERENCIAL DE ELECTRICIDAD 2001-2010 PRONOSTICO DE
VARIABLES