Censos vitor

Ao
poblacion
2708.00
1972.00
1981.00
2740.00
1993.00
3196.00
2005.00
3447.00
2007.00
3545.00
fuente inei
calculo de la poblacion de diseo

Ao

metodo aritmetico
poblacion
razon
1972.00
2708.00
1981.00
2740.00
1993.00
3196.00
2005.00
3447.00
2007.00
3545.00
sumatoria

ao
pob 2031

Ao

ao

2020.00
3907.28

metodo de interes simple

Pi+1-Pi
Pi(ti+1-ti)
r
poblacion
1972.00
2708.00
1981.00
2740.00
32.00
24372.00
1993.00
3196.00
456.00
32880.00
2005.00
3447.00
251.00
38352.00
2007.00
3545.00
98.00
6894.00

ao
pob 2031

Ao

3.56
38.00
20.92
49.00
27.87

2031.00
4309.48

metodo geometrico
t
poblacion
r
1972.00
2708.00
1981.00
2740.00
9.00
1993.00
3196.00
12.00
2005.00
3447.00
12.00
2007.00
3545.00
2.00
2031.00

1.00
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01

0.00
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01

pob 2031

Ao

4360.39

metodo de la parabola
t
poblacion
1993.00
3196.00
0.00
0.00
2005.00
3447.00
12.00
12.00
2007.00
3545.00
2.00
14.00

Valores X
0.00
144.00
196.00

Valores Y

V ind
3196.00
3447.00
3545.00

Valores Y

Valores X
0.00
144.00
196.00

V ind

Valores X
0.00
144.00
196.00

V ind

ao
pob 2031

Valores Z

0.00
12.00
14.00

1.00 Determinante
1.00
1.00
Valores Z

0.00
12.00
14.00

DA

-674.00

2.01

DB

1060.00

-3.15

3196.00
3447.00
3545.00

DC

-1073856.00

3196.00

1.00
1.00
1.00
V ind
3196.00
3447.00
3545.00

2026.00
5276.38

METODO DE LOS INCREMETOS VARIABLES

Ao
poblacion
P
2P
1972.00
2708.00
0.00
0.00
1981.00
2740.00
32.00
0.00
1993.00
3196.00
456.00
424.00
2005.00
3447.00
251.00
-205.00
2007.00
3545.00
98.00
-153.00
837.00
16.50
P=
2P=
m=
ao

166.40
1.30
1.00
2026.00

-336.00

1.00
1.00
1.00
Valores Z

0.00
12.00
14.00

3196.00
3447.00
3545.00

=
=
=

pob 2031

3711.40

METODO DE LA CURVA NORMAL LOGISTICA

Ao
poblacion
1993.00
3196.00
2005.00
3447.00
2007.00
3545.00
condiciones
a)
b)

Po*P2P12
Po+P2<2*P1

Ps
a
b
t

3600.61
-2.07
-1.04
3.30

ao
pob 2031

2026.00
3586.13

ok
ok

0.00
144.00
196.00

A
A
A

+
+
+

0.00
12.00
14.00

B
B
B

+
+
+

1.00 C
1.00 C
1.00 C

Ao

METODO DE LOS MINIMOS CUADRADOS

poblacion
Yi
log Yi
Xi2
1972
2708 1.1816839 0.0725013183
7333264
1981
2740 16.642336 1.2212142798
7507600
1993
3196 7.853567 0.8950669508
10214416
2005
3447 2.8430519 0.4537847923
11881809
2007
3545
12091 28.520639 2.6425673413
36937089
3022.75 7.1301596 0.6606418353
9234272.25

Yi=

CRECIMIENTO ARITMETICO
26.639245924
+
-0.006454085 Xi

a=
b=

CRECIMIENTO GEOMETRICO
6.6093780708
-0.000121514
-0.000121514 Xi

Yi=

6.6093780708

AOS DESPUES
DEL ULTIMO CENSO
2007
0
2017
10
2021
14
2031
24

POBLACION
ARTIMETICO
GEOMETRICO
3545
3545
3678.2747571
3697.2991636022
3784.9207042
3853.2287867021
3868.6070009
4012.6844694311

METODO DE LA PARA
Ao
1972
1981
1993
2005
2007
5

poblacion
X
2708
2740
3196
3447
3545
15636
5
4
4
4

P2031

9844.2664598

X2
0
0.9
1.2
1.2
0.2
4
4
4
4
5

XY
0
0.81
1.44
1.44
0.04
4

0
2466
3835.2
4136.4
709
11147

4
4
4
5
5
13
13 8416032702165560000000

RADOS
Xi*Yi

Xi*logYi
3200
196.3335699748
45600
3346.1271267727
25100
2860.6339748817
9800
1564.1961790048
83700
20925

7967.2908506341
1991.8227126585
1
3022.75

1
3022.75

CRECIMIENTO POR DECADA

INCREMENTO POR DECADA
ARITMETICO GEOMETRICO
ARITMETICO GEOMETRICO
3.7595136
4.2961682257 133.274757
152.2991636021
2.89934695
4.217392648 106.645947
155.9296230999
2.21104491
4.1382355307 83.6862967
159.455682729
1.67092642
4.0588246947 64.6415764
162.8678281638

METODO DE LA PARABOLA CUBICA

X3
X4
X5
X6
0
0
0
0
0.729
0.6561 0.34867844
224883935851513000000
1.728
2.0736 6.19173642 3182204606919270000000
1.728
2.0736 6.19173642 5008817137843860000000
0.008
0.0016 1.024E-007
127021550911887000
4
5
13 8416032702165560000000
15636
11147
11927
13505

0.7945148033
-2.7427381252
1.7766781291
-1.5177879543634E-021

3022.75
9234272.25

7.13015964
20925

94.9493797 -0.031080764
-0.03108076 1.02823E-005

3022.75
9234272.25

0.66064184
1991.82271

94.9493797 -0.031080764
-0.03108076 1.02823E-005

X2Y

X3Y
0
2219.4
4602.24
4963.68
141.8
11927

0
1997.46
5522.688
5956.416
28.36
13505

-2.74273813 1.776678129
23.557643 -18.42843431
-18.4284343 14.91049046
1.5796E-020 -1.2921E-020

-4.413E-017
2.375E-016
-1.637E-016
1.188E-022

15636
11147
11927
13505

ao
a1
a2
a3

7.1301596385
20925

a
b

26.6392459
-0.00645409

0.6606418353
1991.8227127

A
B

0.8201606
-5.277E-005

3041.4819257
-95.976963292
204.96239761
-1.65929E-019