Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Working Draft
May 9, 2016
PR E SE NTAT I ON
SL OW E R G ROW T H
FOR E C AST E D
2035-2045
2015-2025:
5%
2025-2035
+ 72,000 people
7%
7%
2015-2025
+ 30,700 households
+52,300 employees
8%
2010s
11%
2000s
15%
1990s
Per day:
31%
1980s
20 people
11%
1970s
8 households
14 employees
53%
1960s
1950s
108%
0
Source: 1950-2010 Decennial U.S. Census; 2015 to 2045 COG Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast; Research & Special Projects Division.
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
3
CH ANG I NG MI X MOR E
DR AMATI C T H AN
POPUL AT I ON G ROWT H
Number of Births (2014)
IN
2%
13,214
5%
46,400
OUT
6%
Age (% of pop)
2015
2025
Baby Boomers
51-69 (25%)
61-79 (19%)
Millennials
18-34 (25%)
28-44 (28%)
MoCo
83,125
Source: 2014 American Community Survey, 1-year.
8%
4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Gaithersburg City
White Flint
White Oak
R&D Village
Silver Spring CBD
Rockville City
Clarksburg
Twinbrook
Bethesda CBD
North Bethesda
Germantown West
Rockville Town Center
Shady Grove Metro Station
Wheaton CBD
Bethesda/Chevy Chase
Olney
Germantown East
Potomac
Kensington/Wheaton
Rural East
Fairland/Colesville
Damascus
Silver Spring/Takoma Park
Germantown Town Center
Glenmont
Montgomery Village/Airpark
Friendship Heights
Rural West
Derwood
North Potomac
Aspen Hill
Cloverly
Grosvenor
100%
Policy Areas
Rank
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
76%
30%
73%
82%
20%
10%
14%
0%
Households
Population Employment
Note: Rank for share of growth is the average of each policy areas employment and household growth ranks.
Source: 2010 to 2045 COG Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecast. All data tabulated by the Research & Special Projects Division.
Land
Other areas
Countywide Goals
2 0 1 6 SUB DI V I SION STAG I NG
POL I CY
Drawbacks of the current SSP Policy area groupings not sufficiently related to travel
demand
Too great a reliance on Level of Service (LOS) and other
auto-oriented measures
Scale of analysis should better match the size and
characteristics of the area or project
Intersection capacity and vehicle delay provide too
narrow a focus in some areas
Inequity of the last one in
Mitigation not always provided in the desired form
No recognition of the connection between parking and
travel demand
8
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDAT I ONS
Core
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E C OMME NDAT I ONS
Residential
Core:
Friendship Heights
Silver Spring CBD
Grosvenor
Bethesda CBD
Twinbrook
Corridor:
Wheaton CBD
Rockville Town Center
Silver Spring/Takoma Park
White Flint
Bethesda/Chevy Chase
Kensington/Wheaton
North Bethesda
Rockville City
Glenmont
R&D Village
Derwood
Clarksburg Town Center
Chevy Chase Lake
Long Branch
Takoma/Langley
Residential:
Aspen Hill
White Oak
Montgomery Village/Airpark
Gaithersburg City
Cloverly
Potomac
Germantown West
North Potomac
Fairland/Colesville
Clarksburg
Germantown East
Olney
Damascus
Bethesda CBD
Corridor
Olney
Rural
Rural:
Rural West
Rural East
Rural West
10
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDATI ONS
Urban:
Bethesda CBD
Bethesda-Chevy Chase
Derwood
Friendship Heights
Glenmont
Grosvenor
Kensington/Wheaton
North Bethesda
Rockville City
Rockville Town Center
Shady Grove
Silver Spring CBD
Silver Spring/Takoma Park
Twinbrook
Wheaton CBD
Suburban:
Aspen Hill
Clarksburg
Cloverly
Gaithersburg City
Germantown East
Germantown Town Center
Germantown West
Montgomery Village/Airpark
North Potomac
Olney
Potomac
R&D Village
Urban
Suburban
Cloverly
Shady Grove
Rural
Rural:
Rural East
Rural West
Rural West
11
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDAT I ONS
12
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDATI ONS
13
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDATI ONS
14
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDAT I ONS
Proposed
Bethesda CBD
Friendship Heights
Grosvenor
Silver Spring CBD
Twinbrook
The Policy Area Test would also not apply in the rural areas
since attaining adequate high quality transit in these areas is
neither desired nor likely. The rural policy areas are
15
currently exempt under TPAR.
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDAT I ONS
The proposed thresholds for the Local Area Test reflect the
recognition of varying impacts from projects of different
sizes.
The conversion from vehicle trips to person trips, and
incorporation of trip reduction based on parking and other
travel demand factors further supports right-sized analyses.
16
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDAT I ONS
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDAT I ONS
18
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDAT I ONS
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDAT I ONS
20
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDATI ONS
21
T R ANSPORTAT I ON
R E COMME NDAT I ONS
22
R E DUCED PAR K I NG
Set ancillary retail rate at zero for first 10,000 GSF
in vertical mixed use
Adjust trip rates for Reduced Parking Incentive
23
I MPACT TAXE S
Residential
Commercial
Core
0.25
0.75
Corridor
0.75
1.00
Residential
1.25
1.25
Rural
2.00
1.25
24
I MPACT TAXE S
25
I MPACT TAXE S
Difference
Parking
Incentives
Applied?
Notes
$2,393,500
$128,863
Yes
$3,603,375
$1,209,875
$417,930
($245,741)
Yes
$245,985
($171,945)
$6,085,975 ($1,756,690)
Yes
$5,411,606
($674,369)
$1,180,050
$1,871,750
($691,700)
Yes
$1,475,063
($396,688)
$2,182,188
$1,745,750
$436,438
No
Increased Rate
$2,182,188
$436,438
$1,928,306
$1,714,050
$214,256
Yes
$2,142,563
$428,513
$279,320
$139,660
$139,660
No
Increased Rate
$279,320
$139,660
Office SF Retail SF
Project Type
DU's
350,000
30,000
$2,522,363
120
6,500
$172,190
425
230,000
40,000
$4,329,285
250
25,000
Residential - SF Detached
125
Residential - SF Attached
150
Rural - SF Detached
10
Recommeded Tax
Difference without
Structure Without
reduced parking
Parking Incentive Applied
26
NE XT ST E P S
27