Metodo de suavizado exponencial

mes

0.05

demanda
error de
error
pronostico
real
pronostico
absoluto
1
1444
1455.00
-11.00
11.00
2
1410
1454.45
-44.45
44.45
3
1369
1452.23
-83.23
83.23
4
1406
1448.07
-42.07
42.07
5
1425
1445.96
-20.96
20.96
6
1463
1444.91
18.09
18.09
7
1538
1445.82
92.18
92.18
8
1463
1450.43
12.57
12.57
9
1519
1451.06
67.94
67.94
10
1425
1454.45
-29.45
29.45
11
1433
1452.98
-19.98
19.98
12
1481
1451.98
29.02
29.02
13
39.2
14

metodo suavizado exponencial con ajuste de tendencia

Xt
demanda
real

mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

x't

x't

X^t
pronostico
1.8
61.8
1.85
63.71
2.16
66.25
2.34
68.81
2.14
70.71
2.21
73.01
2.21
75.21
2.40
77.85
2.43
80.33
1.88
81.50
1.51
82.57
1.86
84.86
1.89
86.79
2.01
88.96

60
61.86
64.10
66.48
68.57
70.80
73.01
75.45
77.89
79.63
81.05
83.00
84.90
86.94

62
65
67
68
71
73
76
78
78
80
84
85
87.3
89.36

Xt

Tt

Tt

X^t

demanda
real

mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

62
65
67
68
71
73
76
78
78
80
84
85

60
61.84
63.93
66.13
68.20
70.43
72.68
75.12
77.58
79.59
81.42
83.50

1.8
1.82
1.98
2.11
2.08
2.17
2.22
2.35
2.42
2.18
1.96
2.04

pronostico
61.8
63.66
65.92
68.25
70.28
72.60
74.90
77.47
79.99
81.77
83.38
85.54

Metodo de suavizado exponencial

mes

e tendencia

alfa=0.3

demanda
error de
error
pronostico
real
pronostico
absoluto
1
1444
1455.00
-11.00
11.00
2
1410
1451.70
-41.70
41.70
3
1369
1439.19
-70.19
70.19
4
1406
1418.13
-12.13
12.13
5
1425
1414.49
10.51
10.51
6
1463
1417.65
45.35
45.35
7
1538
1431.25
106.75
106.75
8
1463
1463.28
-0.28
0.28
9
1519
1463.19
55.81
55.81
10
1425
1479.94
-54.94
54.94
11
1433
1463.45
-30.45
30.45
12
1481
1454.32
26.68
26.68
13
1488
1462.32
38.82
14
1494.15
1470.03

beta=0.8

error absoluto
0.20
1.29
0.75
0.81
0.29
0.01
0.79
0.15
2.33
1.50
1.43
0.14
0.81

alfa=0.3

0.3

beta=0.8

error absoluto
0.20
1.34
1.08
0.25
0.72
0.40
1.10
0.53
1.99
1.77
0.62
0.54
0.88

Metodo de suavizado exponencial

mes

0.05

demanda
error de
error
pronostico
real
pronostico
absoluto
1
1444
1455.00
-11.00
11.00
2
1410
1446.20
-36.20
36.20
3
1369
1417.24
-48.24
48.24
4
1406
1378.65
27.35
27.35
5
1425
1400.53
24.47
24.47
6
1463
1420.11
42.89
42.89
7
1538
1454.42
83.58
83.58
8
1463
1521.28
-58.28
58.28
9
1519
1474.66
44.34
44.34
10
1425
1510.13
-85.13
85.13
11
1433
1442.03
-9.03
9.03
12
1481
1434.81
46.19
46.19
13
43.06
14