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Tecnica de Arbol de Decisiones
Tecnica de Arbol de Decisiones
Breve aproximacin a la
Tcnica de rbol de
Decisiones*
Calancha Zuniga, Niefar Abgar
Carrin Brcena, Rosa Brbara
Cori Vargas, Roco Mariela
Villa Torres, R. Fabricio
Contenido
I.INTRODUCCIN......................................................................2
II. EL RBOL DE DECISIONES....................................................2
I. I
I. II
PAP Economa
[1]
I.
Introduccin
II.
El rbol de decisiones
PAP Economa
[2]
PAP Economa
[4]
I.III
Resulta
do
Probabilid
ad
Valor esperado
A-1
0.7
S/. 30,000
S/.
21,000
A-2
0.3
S/. 15,000
S/.
4,500
Total V.e. de
Decisin
S/.
25,500
Decisin
P * V.e.
Resulta
do
Probabilid
ad
Valor esperado
P * V.e.
B-1
0.5
S/. 10,000
S/.
5,000
B-2
0.5
S/. 16,000
S/.
8,000
Total V.e. de
Decisin
S/.
13,000
Resulta
do
Prob.
V.e.
A-1
A-2
Decisi
n
Resulta
do
B-1
B-2
Prob.
V.e.
0.5 S/. 10,000
0.5 S/. 16,000
Total
P * V.e.
S/.
21,000
S/. 4,500
S/.
25,500
Costo
-S/.
20,000
Benef.
P * V.e.
S/. 5,000
S/. 8,000
S/.
13,000
Costo
-S/.
5,000
Benef.
S/.
5,500
S/.
8,000
II.
Aplicaciones
[6]
PAP Economa
[8]
PAP Economa
[10]
III.
Conclusiones y recomendaciones
III.
Referencias