Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
INFORME FINAL
CRECIMIENTO POBLACIONAL
DISTRITO DE
VENTANILLA
1.0 METODO ARITMETICO
CENSO
(Ao)
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
Ecuacin :
Pf = Po ( 1 + r
POBLACION
(Habitantes)
16,784
19,702
94,497
277,895
t )
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
2,007
r=
r=
r=
r=
r=
r=
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r1
r2
r3
r4
=
=
=
=
=== >
r5 =
1.93
22.05
44.45
31.64
50.40
13.86
%
%
%
%
%
%
18.91
37.94
18.77
22.07
%
%
%
%
16.89 %
Tasa
18.91%
37.94%
18.77%
22.07%
16.89%
1,972
16,784
36,483
19,462
36,705
31,857
40,210
1,981
19,702
46,977
25,578
47,250
41,248
51,548
1,993
94,497
76,202
44,029
76,589
67,958
82,599
Curva seleccionada:
2,007
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895
Po =
r =
Sumatoria
408,878
437,557
366,964
438,439
418,958
452,252
277,895 habitantes
22.07%
METODO ARITMETICO
POBLACION (Hab)
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1,970
1,980
1,990
2,000
2,010
TIEMPO (Aos)
Censo
Pf = Po ( 1 + r )
1,993
2,007
2,007
2,007
POBLACION
(Habitantes)
16,784
19,702
94,497
277,895
t
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r
r
r
r
r
r
=
=
=
=
=
=
1.80%
8.58%
8.35%
13.96%
10.72%
8.01%
=== >
=== >
=== >
=== >
r1
r2
r3
r4
=
=
=
=
5.80%
6.77%
8.35%
10.35%
Diferencia
--28,679
41,914
29,561
10,080
43,374
INFORME FINAL
2,007
=== >
1,981
19,702
64,193
50,605
34,578
21,470
52,775
r5 =
1,993
94,497
126,243
111,068
90,475
69,998
113,607
Curva seleccionada:
2,007
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895
Po =
r =
6.60%
Sumatoria
408,878
506,985
467,631
419,755
378,212
473,972
Diferencia
--98,107
58,753
10,877
30,666
65,094
277,895 habitantes
8.35%
METODO GEOMETRICO
300,000
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
POBLACION (Hab)
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1,970
1,975
1,980
1,985
1,990
1,995
2,000
2,005
2,010
TIEMPO (Aos)
Censo
POBLACION
(Habitantes)
16784
19702
94497
277895
Pf = A + B . t + C . t
1993
=== >
1972
1981
2007
=== >
1972
1993
2007
=== >
1981
1993
2007
=== >
Mnimos cuadrados :
1972
1981
1993
2007
=== >
A1
B1
C1
A2
B2
C2
A3
B3
C3
A4
B4
C4
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
277,895.00
17,487.57
281.37
277,895.00
17,066.59
274.47
277,895.00
16,859.55
268.55
277,895.00
16,797.44
264.11
A5 =
B5 =
C5 =
277,895.00
16,925.70
270.18
1,972
16,784
10,503
16,784
16,784
13,523
16,460
Curva seleccionada:
1,981
19,702
13,421
19,702
21,086
19,702
20,465
1,993
94,497
88,216
92,757
94,497
94,497
93,889
A =
B =
C =
2,007
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895
277,895.00
16,925.70
270.18
Sumator.
408,878
390,035
407,138
410,262
405,617
408,709
Diferenc.
--18,843
1,740
1,384
3,261
169
INFORME FINAL
METODO PARABOLICO
POBLACION (Hab)
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1,970
1,975
1,980
1,985
1,990
1,995
2,000
2,005
2,010
TIEMPO (Aos)
Censo
POBLACION
(Habitantes)
16,784
19,702
94,497
277,895
Pf = A + B .t
Mnimos cuadrados :
1,972
1,981
1,993
2,007
=== >
A5 =
B5 =
244,559.69
7,591.48
Ao
Censo
Arimtico
Geomtrico
Parablico
Exponen.
Modifi.
Curva
Elegida
Base
A
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1972
1981
1993
2,005
2,006
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
2,014
2,015
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
2,021
2,022
2,023
2,024
2,025
2,026
2,027
2,028
16,784
19,702
94,497
277,895
300,152
324,193
350,159
378,204
408,496
441,215
476,553
514,723
555,949
600,477
648,572
700,519
756,626
817,228
882,683
953,381
1,029,741
1,112,218
1,201,300
1,297,517
1,401,440
1,513,688
1,634,925
277,895
339,214
400,534
461,853
523,173
584,493
645,812
707,132
768,452
829,771
891,091
952,410
1,013,730
1,075,050
1,136,369
1,197,689
1,259,009
1,320,328
1,381,648
1,442,967
1,504,287
1,565,607
1,626,926
1,688,246
277,895
301,086
326,213
353,437
382,934
414,891
449,516
487,030
527,676
571,713
619,425
671,119
727,127
787,810
853,556
924,790
1,001,968
1,085,587
1,176,185
1,274,343
1,380,693
1,495,919
1,620,760
1,756,021
277,895
295,090
312,827
331,103
349,920
369,277
389,175
409,613
430,591
452,110
474,169
496,768
519,908
543,588
567,809
592,569
617,870
643,712
670,094
697,016
724,478
752,481
781,025
810,108
277,895
252,151
259,742
267,334
274,925
282,517
290,108
297,700
305,291
312,882
320,474
328,065
335,657
343,248
350,840
358,431
366,023
373,614
381,206
388,797
396,389
403,980
411,572
419,163
277,895
301,086
326,213
353,437
382,934
414,891
449,516
487,030
527,676
571,713
619,425
671,119
727,127
787,810
853,556
924,790
1,001,968
1,085,587
1,176,185
1,274,343
1,380,693
1,495,919
1,620,760
1,756,021
POBLACION (Hab)
1,600,000
1,400,000
Censo
1,200,000
Arimtico
1,000,000
Geomtrico
800,000
Parablico
600,000
Exponen.
Modifi.
400,000
200,000
0
1,960
1,970
1,980
1,990
2,000
TIEMPO (Aos)
2,010
2,020
2,030
INFORME FINAL
TASA ESCOGIDA
METODO GEOMETRICO