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Countries that support the US-led coalition against the Islamic State are most likely to be targeted by militant Islamist terrorist attacks. Recent patterns of Islamic State
attacks outside the group's core areas of Syria and Iraq show that its external activity is likely to target states and groups that are confronting it militarily or conducting counter-terrorism
campaigns against it. In Western Europe the risk is highest in countries with large Muslim minorities, particularly those that have contributed large numbers of foreign fighters to militant
Islamist groups. As a result, Islamist militants are most likely to stage attacks in France, Belgium, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Spain. The cities at greatest risk
of attack include Paris, Toulouse, Lyon, Brussels, and London. In Germany, aside from Frankfurt ,Berlin and Munich, there is also a heightened risk of attacks in Leipzig and Dresden,
the heartland of the anti-Islamic movement Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the West (Patriotische Europer gegen die Islamisierung des Abendlandes: PEGIDA). This
would be consistent with the Islamic State's strategy of driving a wedge into social fault lines.
For more on the terrorism risks in Western Europe, please contact Kit Nicholl (kit.nicholl@ihs.com ).
2016IHS.
2016 IHS.. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement
between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable but its accuracy and
completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses which are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss,damage or expense incurred by reliance on
information or any statement contained herein.
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