Rob Moser Pat McDonald

Terrorism and Counterterrorism I

SCHEDULE
1. TMFPQ
2. What was 9/11 (revisited)? How did it change
us?
3. What is terrorism?
4. Dilemmas of fighting a war on terrorism
5. How do we get from 9/11 to wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan?
6. Are terrorist groups strategic?

TMFPQ: Continuing debate over

Ebola and a travel ban
Fox News clip on travel ban and Ebola
Arguments against a travel ban:

The threat is still low and a travel ban will not make us much safer
Will create incentives to go underground and thus make it harder to track infected
persons
Will harm volunteer organizations access to West African countries
Will scare aware volunteers who may not be able to return to US
Will harm already fragile West African economies
Could lead to many more countries following Americas lead and banning travel
Could feed the fear of Americans and make us feel less safe
Already many airlines have temporarily halted flights to the area
Bottom line: Would make Ebola outbreak in Africa even worse and thus Ebola more
dangerous

Arguments for a travel ban:

Would add a layer of protection against spread to US

The American public wants it and would feel safer (67% support travel restrictions)
Some African countries have instituted travel bans and have controlled the Ebola
outbreak
Bottom line: Extra dose of caution that could protect US

TMFPQ: An Iranian nuclear deal?

David E. Sanger, Obama Sees an Iran Deal That Could Avoid Congress, NY
Times, 10/19
As discussed last Thursday, US strong interests in preventing nuclear
proliferation
US institutes tough sanctions on Iran in response to nuclear weapons
program
Diminished oil revenues, lose access to assets held abroad and foreign
capital markets
Long term negotiations and diplomatic solution to preventive war option
(pushed by Israel and hardliners in US)
Key issues in negotiations: access of weapons inspectors, how much
uranium Iran can enrich for energy purposes, speed/degree by which US
relaxes sanctions regime
Problem: Obama will lose a vote in Congress to suspend sanctions as
concession to Iran, now considering going around Congress
Will Iran sign off on a deal without Congress (how trust President to
implement if can be punished by Congress?)?
Implications for discussions from class: anti-proliferation interests,
executive and legislative conflict over foreign policy, Israel Lobby

What was 9/11 and how did it

change us?
New enemy in terrorism and new mission of counterterrorism
The domestic fight against terrorism: rise of the
security state and the debate over the balance
between liberty and security
Taking the fight abroad: Foreign wars and counterterrorism

What is terrorism?
I.

Byford: What is terrorism?

A.
Non-state actors using violence
B.
Instilling terror using force to
intimidate
C.
Methods suicide missions
D.
Targets intentionally killing civilians
E.
Tying Means and Goals

Dilemmas of fighting a war on

terrorism?

Byford: Defining the threat

A.
Is the threat a tactic, ideology, or
entity?
B.
The problem with a war on terror
C.
What the U.S. was really angry about in
9/11
American
anger does not
stemgoals
from the
fact thatmeans
it was
D.
Interests
first,
second,
terrorism. Americans would be just as furious if the carnage had
third
been inflicted
by the Afghan air force instead of a shadowy subI.

national groupNo, what matters is quite simple: America was

attacked and Americans were killed. (Byford, p. 42)

How are terrorist groups different

from other threats?
1.

Terrorism and the differences in fighting

states and non-state actors
Power differential
Goals
Deterrence
Strategies/tactics

How do we get from 9/11 to the

war in Afghanistan?
Pretty straightforward, Pres. Bush and advisors felt at war right away,
doing nothing not seriously discussed
Huge decision by Bush on night of 9/11: no discrimination between
terrorists and states that harbor them
Commitment to broaden war against states and non state actors
Decision of Bush, Rice, K. Hughes and speechwriters (Gerson); key
national security players left out

Quickly determined to strike Al Qaeda, given sanctuary in

southern Afghanistan by Taliban in return for substantial financial
support
Tremendous pressure on military and CIA to be ready ASAP, concerns
about breakdown in order if another attack before striking back
Bush addresses Congress 9/20, addresses nation announcing
commencement of air strikes on 10/7

Important attributes of initial

campaign in Afghanistan
Challenge: difficult terrain, place where empires go to
die (e.g. Soviet Union)
US allies with Northern Alliance, collection of groups in
Northern Afghanistan fighting Taliban
Insert CIA and special forces to coordinating coalition and
hold it together with funding and weapons

NATO invokes Article 5, attack on one is attack on all

Convergence of great power interests: both China and
Russia share anti-terror interests
Illustrates convergence of national interests of all states,
terrorism as a threat to their viability as organizational form

How do we get from 9/11 to war in

Afghanistan to war in Iraq?
Bush faces pressure from within
administration to go to war against Iraq
right away after 9/11
Rumsfield raises possibility on September 12
Wolfowitz, 9/13, ending states who sponsor
terrorism
Orders Rumsfield on 11/21 to begin updating
war plan for Iraq

How do we get from 9/11 to war in

Afghanistan to war in Iraq?
Overdetermined

Weapons of mass destruction

Saddam Hussein seeking to augment capabilities and would threaten

allies in region
Might give to terrorists
Had used in the past (deterrence would not work)
Wolfowitz: settle on this because easier to sell domestically

Iraq part of Axis of Evil and key enemy of the United States
Might harbor terrorists

Leverage point to transform and democratize Middle East

Democratic Iraq would put pressure on autocratic countries in region to
liberalize
Needed bold solution to long term (two generations) problem of terrorism

Better to fight the terrorists in a foreign theater (Cheney)

Challenges of fighting war in Iraq

International resistance, cannot get second UN resolution
Activates fundamental problem of politics: Is US restrained?

Insufficient preparation for post-Saddam Iraq, basic

security collapses
Civil war
Democracy promotion unleashes commitment problem: how
reassure minority Sunni coalition, restrain majority Shia coalition,
and keep Kurds in Iraq (so Turkey doesnt hinder)?

New sanctuary/training ground for terrorism

Diverts resources and attention from Afghanistan
Securing the peace requires much longer commitment
than anticipated
Domestic support erodes, which opens broader questions about
sustaining larger global war against terrorism?

Are terrorist groups strategic?

No Abrams: Terrorist groups do not display characteristics of
rational cost-benefit analysis in their actions
Yes Kydd and Walter: Terrorist groups are rational actors
that use violence because it often works to achieve
concrete goals
Terrorist strategies as costly signals to influence behavior

Attrition: Outlasting an adversary through war of wills

Provocation: Goading the adversary into conflict

Intimidation: Overthrowing a government through

reign of terror

Spoiling: Sabotaging the peace

Outbidding: Competition between terrorist groups