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HurricanesandClimate

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HurricanesandClimate*
Difficulty
TimeRequired

Long(24weeks)

Prerequisites

Goodcomputerskills

MaterialAvailability

ReadilyAvailable

Cost

VeryLow(under$20)

Safety

Noissues

*Note:ThisisanabbreviatedProjectIdea,withoutnotestostartyourbackgroundresearch,aspecificlistof
materials,oraprocedureforhowtodotheexperiment.YoucanidentifyabbreviatedProjectIdeasbytheasterisk
attheendofthetitle.IfyouwantaProjectIdeawithfullinstructions,pleasepickonewithoutanasterisk.

Abstract
Thepastfewyearshavehistoriesofextremelypowerfulanddangerousstorms.Stormshavealsobecomemore
numerousoverthelastfewyears.Toinvestigatepotentialeffectsofclimateonhurricanenumberandstrength,inthis
projectyouwillstudytheeffectsofElNioonhurricanes.Thegoalofthisprojectistostudythehistoricrelationship
betweentheElNio/SouthernOscillation(ENSO)andthenumberandstrengthofhurricanes,eitherintheAtlanticor
PacificOceans.SincethisisanabbreviatedScienceBuddiesprojectidea,wewillnotprovideyouwithacompletestep
bystepprocedure.Youwillneedtodosomeofyourownbackgroundresearchandfigureoutyourownproceduretodo
thisproject.
Note:muchofthebackgroundinformationpresentedbelowwasoriginallywrittenin2006.Climatechangeisavery
"current"researchtopic,withnewarticlesandstudiesbeingpublishedallthetime.Beforestartingthisproject,you
shoulddosomeofyourownresearchintomoreuptodateclimatescienceresources.
Isglobalwarmingcausinganincreaseinhurricaneintensity?Considerthefollowingcausalchain:
Greenhousewarmingiscontributingtotheglobaltropicalseasurfacetemperatureincrease(stillcontroversial).
Globaltropicalseasurfacetemperatureisincreasing.
Globalhurricaneintensityincreaseswithincreasingseasurfacetemperature.
Globalhurricaneintensityisincreasing.
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Note:However,wearestillworkingonthislastlink.Thestatementthat"greenhousewarmingis"cannotconclusivelybe
linkedtothe"contributingtotheglobaltropicalseasurfacetemperatureincrease"yet.Therearenumerouspapersjust
beginningtomakethislink,butclimatologistspredictthatextremeevents,likehurricanes,willbestrongerandmore
frequentasthemanmadeclimatewarmingincreases.(Formoreinformation,seeGFDL,2013.)Thetimingofthis
increaseisimportant.Manyscientistsarefindingevidencethatsupporttheassertionthatwearealreadyseeingthis
increaseinthestrongerandmorefrequentextremeevents,duetomanmadecauses(i.e.,fossilfuelemissions.)
Thestorymaybeevenmorecomplex!Greenhousewarmingmayalsoinfluencehurricanesthroughchangesinpre
existingnaturalcycles(e.g.ElNio),atmosphericcirculationpatterns,andoceanmixedlayerdepth.Moreresearchis
neededontheglobalclimatedynamicsofhurricanes.
Historically,scientistshavethoughtthattheAtlantichurricaneactivityhasexhibitedverystrongmultidecadalvariability,
withalternatingperiodslastingseveraldecadesofgenerallyabovenormalorbelownormalactivity.Thesemultidecadal
fluctuationsinhurricaneactivityresultnearlyentirelyfromdifferencesinthenumberofhurricanesandmajorhurricanes
formingfromtropicalstormsfirstnamedinthetropicalAtlanticandCaribbeanSea.
Hurricaneseasonsduring19952004haveaveraged13.6tropicalstorms,7.8hurricanes,3.8majorhurricanes,andwith
anaverageAccumulatedCycloneEnergy(ACE)index(NWS,2014)of159%ofthemedian.NOAAclassifiesallbuttwo
ofthesetenseasons(ElNioyearsof1997and2002)asabovenormal,andsixoftheseyearsashyperactive.Ifthe
2005seasonverifiesaspredicted,itwillbetheseventhhyperactiveseasoninthelast11years.
Incontrast,duringthepreceding19701994period,hurricaneseasonsaveraged9tropicalstorms,5hurricanes,and1.5
majorhurricanes,withanaverageACEindexofonly75%ofthemedian.NOAAclassifiestwelve(almostonehalf)of
these25seasonsasbeingbelownormal,onlythreeasbeingabovenormal(1980,1988,1988),andnoneasbeing
hyperactive.
WhatistherelationshipbetweenhurricanesandElNio/SouthernOscillation(ENSO)?Ingeneral,warmENSO
episodesarecharacterizedbyanincreasednumberoftropicalstormsandhurricanesintheeasternPacificanda
decreaseintheGulfofMexicoandtheCaribbeanSea.
AtlanticOcean:ItisbelievedthatElNioconditionssuppressthedevelopmentoftropicalstormsandhurricanes
intheAtlanticandthatLaNia(coldconditionsintheequatorialPacific)favorhurricaneformation.
PacificOcean:ElNiotendstoincreasethenumbersoftropicalstormsinthePacificOcean.
(Source:McPhadenandSoreide,dateunknown.)
TohelpanswerthesequestionsNOAAhasdevelopedtheHistoricalHurricaneTrackstool,availableat
http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#(http://coast.noaa.gov /hurricanes/#).Thisinteractiveapplicationallowsstudentstotrackthe
locationandvariousstatisticsofover6,000storms,rangingasfarbackastheyear1842andcoveringall7ofthe
world'smajoroceanbasins!Figure1,below,showsanexamplescreenshotofthehurricanetrackingtool.

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Figure1.AnexamplescreenshotoftheNOAAhurricanetrackingtool.Searchfilterswereusedtoonlytrackstorms
thatoccurredintheWestAtlanticbasinduringtheyear2010.Thelinesshowthetrackofeachstorm,andthecolors
correspondtothestorm'sintensity.
Forthisproject,youwillneedtofigureouthowyoucanusethehistoricalhurricanetrackingtooltodeterminewhether
thereisarelationshipbetweenElNioandthenumberorstrengthofhurricanesintheAtlanticandPacificoceans.To
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getstarted,clickthe"Help"buttonintheupperrightcornerofthehurricanetrackingtoolwindowtolearnabouthowto
usethetool.Experimentwiththedifferentsearchoptionsontheleftforexamplesearchingbyoceanbasin,timeframe
(includingselectingspecificElNioyears),orstormcategory.Thesearchfunctionwillhelpyougatherthedatayou
needforyourproject.

Objective
ThegoalofthisprojectistostudythehistoricrelationshipbetweentheElNio/SouthernOscillation(ENSO)andthe
numberandstrengthofhurricanes,eitherintheAtlanticorPacificOceans.

Credits
WrittenbyFrankNiepold,ClimateEducationFellow,NOAAClimateProgramOffice
EditedbyAndrewOlson,Ph.D.andBenFinio,Ph.D.,ScienceBuddies

CiteThisPage
MLAStyle
ScienceBuddiesStaff."HurricanesandClimate"ScienceBuddies.ScienceBuddies,23Oct.2014.Web.21Apr.2016
<http://www.sciencebuddies.org/sciencefairprojects/project_ideas/OceanSci_p007.shtml>

APAStyle
ScienceBuddiesStaff.(2014,October23).HurricanesandClimate.RetrievedApril21,2016from
http://www.sciencebuddies.org/sciencefairprojects/project_ideas/OceanSci_p007.shtml

Lasteditdate:20141023

Bibliography
GFDL,2013."GlobalWarmingandHurricanes,"GeophysicalFluidDynamicsLaboratory,NOAA.Retrieved
October11,2014fromhttp://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html(http://www.gf dl.noaa.gov /~tk/glob_warm_hurr.html).
AccumulatedCycloneEnergy(ACE)Indexdefinition:
NWS,2014."ClimatePredictionCenter,AtlanticHurricaneOutlook,BackgroundInformation,"NOAA/National
WeatherService.RetrievedOctober11,2014from
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/background_information.shtml
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov /products/outlooks/background_inf ormation.shtml).
McPhaden,M.J.andSoreide,N.N.,dateunknown."FrequentlyAskedQuestionsAboutElNioandLaNia,"
PacificMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory,NOAA.RetrievedOctober11,2014from
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/faq.html#hurricanes (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov /tao/elnino/f aq.html#hurricanes).

AskanExpert
TheAskanExpertForumisintendedtobeaplacewherestudentscangotofindanswerstosciencequestionsthat
theyhavebeenunabletofindusingotherresources.Ifyouhavespecificquestionsaboutyoursciencefairprojector
sciencefair,ourteamofvolunteerscientistscanhelp.OurExpertswon'tdotheworkforyou,buttheywillmake
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suggestions,offerguidance,andhelpyoutroubleshoot.
AskanExpert(http://www.sciencebuddies.org/sciencefairprojects/ask_an_expert_intro.shtml)

RelatedLinks
ScienceFairProjectGuide(http://www.sciencebuddies.org/sciencef airprojects/project_guide_index.shtml)
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Meteorologistsstudythemeasurementsandmotionoftheatmosphere,andchanging
eventswithinit,sothattheycanpredicttheweather.Thisweatherforecastinghelps
thegeneralpublicandpeoplewhoworkinindustriessuchasshipping,air
transportation,agriculture,fishing,forestry,andwaterandpowerbetterplanforthe
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thesearequestionsthatpeakyourcuriosity,thenyoumightbeinterestedinajobas
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NewsFeedonThisTopic
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SlowHurricaneSeasonExpected(http://www.sciencebuddies.org/news/article?id=139479),ScientificAmerican,
May27,2015

ElNio's'remotecontrol'onhurricanesintheNortheasternPacific
(http://www.sciencebuddies.org/news/article?id=99504),Eurek Alert!,December4,2014

PictureThis:BiggesthurricaneintheWest(http://www.sciencebuddies.org/news/article?id=178721),Science
NewsforStudents,October23,2015

Note:Acomputerizedmatchingalgorithmsuggeststheabovearticles.It'snotassmartasyouare,anditmay
occasionallygivehumorous,ridiculous,orevenannoyingresults!LearnmoreabouttheNewsFeed
(http://www.sciencebuddies.org/news/learnmore)

Lookingformoresciencefun?
Tryoneofourscienceactivitiesforquick,anytimescienceexplorations.Theperfectthingtolivenuparainyday,school
vacation,ormomentofboredom.

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