convolucion.

xls

80

CONVOLUCION

70
60
50

Una compaa de Seguros tiene una cartera de plizas de incendios. Estima que los siniestros
diarios de la cartera se ajustan a una Poisson de Lamda=2 y que cada uno de ellos le supone un
coste que se ajusta a una Normal de media 600 euros y desviacin tpica 100 euros. Se desea
simular mediante el Mtodo Monte Carlo el coste anual de la cartera.

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0

12345678

Max
Min

1
2
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5
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7
8
9
10
11
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19
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39

Poisson
Lamda=2
1
0
2
2
2
2
5
3
0
1
2
2
4
3
1
1
0
1
3
0
2
1
2
0
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
2
0
4
1
3

1
595
0
504
408
509
495
735
620
0
657
631
614
588
412
559
631
0
618
628
0
573
512
656
0
611
558
749
657
450
669
600
680
534
643
579
0
401
645
745

2
0
0
505
531
702
559
607
776
0
0
490
520
579
650
0
0
0
0
577
0
476
0
659
0
0
0
0
723
622
612
0
605
0
650
621
0
660
0
588

8
0
3

4
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
637 674 743
526
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
613 484
0
674
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
549
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
639 779
0
0
0
0
579
0
0

Coste Anual
436270.001907
6

7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

COSTE
595
0
1,010
939
1,211
1,054
3,396
1,922
0
657
1,122
1,134
2,264
1,736
559
631
0
618
1,755
0
1,049
512
1,315
0
611
558
749
1,380
1,072
1,281
600
1,285
534
1,293
1,199
0
2,479
645
1,912

427132.714
428707.488
463340.259
406115.128
433448.412
464555.125
459050.038
463284.309
445282.813
423238.359
435473.953
445639.437
457483.818
406529.818
431237.193
441733.149
450546.124
474873.464
433211.849
434947.972
416732.932
433120.229
420525.194
425686.825
455480.311
449009.952
428457.741
430611.701
454137.667
450418.713
413318.432
434009.297
428044.038
453148.143
444405.846
389504.984
446183.87
432991.851
455516.754
438806.4
431938.662
469650.452
457351.948

40
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84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93

3
1
2
2
1
3
0
2
2
2
3
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
3
8
2
0
0
2
2
1
2
4
4
1
3
2
1
4
4
2
2
1
2
0
0
1
1
1
3
0
2
2
2
4
4
1
3
4

599
420
638
707
581
619
0
560
523
536
526
680
675
704
834
790
609
662
537
483
610
0
0
663
553
769
491
685
479
585
651
749
633
624
674
706
401
664
430
0
0
725
698
619
816
0
626
431
534
673
633
662
514
492

624
0
581
473
0
736
0
451
570
635
722
403
489
0
0
719
577
516
472
684
698
0
0
409
628
0
602
461
594
0
644
616
0
563
571
423
596
0
713
0
0
0
0
0
708
0
659
476
684
590
542
0
840
484

457
0
0
0
0
839
0
0
0
0
571
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
715
714
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
619
994
0
662
0
0
516
798
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
721
0
0
0
0
547
622
0
583
492

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
649 561 448 497 648
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
591
0
0
0
0
587
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
499
0
0
0
0
629
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
465
0
0
0
0
611
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
474
0
0
0
0

1,680
420
1,219
1,180
581
2,193
0
1,011
1,094
1,171
1,818
1,083
1,164
704
834
1,509
1,186
1,178
1,724
4,684
1,308
0
0
1,072
1,181
769
1,093
2,357
2,653
585
1,957
1,366
633
2,202
2,672
1,129
997
664
1,143
0
0
725
698
619
2,245
0
1,285
906
1,217
2,276
2,409
662
1,937
1,942

440511.875
432125.517
449824.177
440597.226
449780.008
442498.789
435803.534
413893.171
438805.199
429381.155
450631.441
447090.413
445327.598
422934.454
420149.245
432290.612
439551.627
431499.83
456694.333
483598.614
469511.573
428402.481
462665.941
421936.909
431605.451
445476.373
457805.176
442871.406
446062.486
446363.326
426092.347
419577.096
448254.107
456010.809
421469.43
439946.098
453124.714
455405.178
467726.323
428635.826
454618.186
452446.643
441638.656
440824.001
433093.001
441374.018
462460.339
408960.48
431787.733
460201.642
437989.809
439476.513
438158.393
446438.119

94
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127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147

3
0
2
2
3
3
1
3
3
1
3
5
3
2
1
1
3
4
0
3
2
1
1
3
4
1
2
3
3
1
2
1
1
4
2
2
2
1
4
3
2
1
0
1
5
3
2
1
1
5
2
2
5
3

581
0
641
592
572
698
660
695
792
691
785
494
639
558
522
751
618
596
0
462
526
643
570
431
657
355
693
681
466
650
672
483
546
657
558
765
441
649
769
560
687
769
0
453
600
537
602
694
626
512
670
549
471
602

587
0
516
607
545
671
0
538
562
0
623
440
632
762
0
0
335
438
0
646
593
0
0
576
549
0
659
597
398
0
600
0
0
592
586
609
506
0
551
628
576
0
0
0
468
563
617
0
0
569
715
588
741
665

624
0
0
0
645
468
0
492
743
0
398
683
524
0
0
0
551
580
0
304
0
0
0
590
762
0
0
371
734
0
0
0
0
622
0
0
0
0
741
613
0
0
0
0
534
351
0
0
0
794
0
0
557
525

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
560
0
0
0
0
0
660
0
0
0
0
0
0
583
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
631
0
0
0
0
595
0
0
0
0
0
568
0
0
0
0
804
0
0
522
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
627
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
760
0
0
0
0
667
0
0
660
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

1,793
0
1,157
1,199
1,762
1,836
660
1,725
2,097
691
1,806
2,803
1,795
1,321
522
751
1,504
2,274
0
1,412
1,119
643
570
1,597
2,551
355
1,352
1,648
1,598
650
1,273
483
546
2,501
1,144
1,374
947
649
2,657
1,801
1,263
769
0
453
2,930
1,451
1,219
694
626
3,346
1,385
1,137
2,950
1,793

402789.241
456244.228
415970.848
450177.363
466166.13
442258.885
450401.714
414835.928
441786.993
452098.84
452081.914
456300.072
438051.708
450014.176
450138.374
439674.315
450831.174
471054.771
415642.833
421670.442
440786.196
433464.59
414584.488
445010.397
442067.223
428841.266
429611.752
428556.143
436495.256
416032.272
442263.806
432201.382
438562.159
410934.996
474356.411
427051.7
444137.771
431873.486
453324.981
433759.049
450095.294
435663.909
430200.062
426309.323
456540.338
459631.555
418966.509
443600.273
415233.353
399036.925
438011.868
433210.432
441668.758
460670.198

148
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181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201

1
0
1
0
1
2
2
2
2
0
2
3
1
2
2
1
4
2
5
1
1
2
2
0
3
0
1
1
1
1
2
1
5
2
0
2
4
3
4
0
1
0
3
1
1
0
0
1
3
5
1
1
3
2

708
0
719
0
594
643
481
664
664
0
776
466
715
509
641
581
617
575
394
598
768
694
576
0
688
0
504
508
573
593
583
804
698
605
0
630
670
612
602
0
702
0
632
670
510
0
0
567
576
491
658
757
651
504

0
0
0
0
0
504
676
674
525
0
578
631
0
382
699
0
561
396
774
0
0
755
721
0
403
0
0
0
0
0
499
0
715
584
0
591
575
541
725
0
0
0
503
0
0
0
0
0
484
605
0
0
676
702

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
737
0
0
0
0
725
0
756
0
0
0
0
0
590
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
536
0
0
0
537
497
686
0
0
0
462
0
0
0
0
0
564
497
0
0
640
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
586
0
0
0
616 632
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
763 708
0
0
0
0
0
0
559
0
0
0
590
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
616 806
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

708
0
719
0
594
1,147
1,157
1,338
1,188
0
1,354
1,834
715
890
1,340
581
2,489
971
3,172
598
768
1,448
1,297
0
1,681
0
504
508
573
593
1,081
804
3,418
1,190
0
1,221
2,341
1,651
2,604
0
702
0
1,596
670
510
0
0
567
1,624
3,014
658
757
1,967
1,206

433173.01
417532.683
428613.283
468340.924
436295.23
445073.89
423778.085
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456157.111
433078.262
464674.307
410498.292
449288.236
423240.692
453483.41
431337.098
450786.828
438816.192
424638.558
456105.483
420277.64
448807.555
428207.624
445691.983
442946.311
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448957.784
446175.916
408406.964
429118.646
427724.116
456501.844
399474.035
453273.984
437020.417
419507.483
434309.12
438331.669
474445.193
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441833.355
467507.878
397737.064
433480.81
461200.78
457770.094
419246.765
431883.878
425162.897
451102.729

469690.852
427757.966
441289.171
460433.711
434945.348
441211.12
438583.338
451564.387
425999.98
447922.489
454498.577
449938.551
449655.64
424027.76
441786.331
388469.774
452268.896
456679.207
432260.53
445576.776
429789.27
455663.354
445575.32
451195.322
427662.219
433351.917
423575.302
454667.487
427845.835
428116.539
436800.096
430154.749
414937.301
418833.951
447420.876
423979.217
458804.594
420697.047
450105.28
449076.078
437885.323
434130.434
433822.101
470496.616
435535.595
440974.479
432084.182
446830.876
453459.842
454026.27
419576.259
406980.107
449516.697
448783.652

462754.671
434665.931
436378.171
424885.936
440821.456
462945.296
467905.257
441832.692
478275.59
447646.741
434030.985
443468.83
451091.245
440314.041
407067.876
442279.421
436040.922
422013.252
434993.816
466464.952
436133.343
447258.742
453846.476
449848.058
435239.011
433496.58
425991.131
449565.06
436450.039
449878.827
424610.842
442303.831
406545.819
448669.342
443100.258
466789.564
444428.324
430336.678
462522.734
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470314.95
446046.968
442830.429
451814.852
427506.551
451841.211
416296.665
444600.169

430749.601
450963.687
463477.339
450307.54
482350.209
455083.608
459897.125
431295.012
446184.502
430088.266
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430625.917
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455471.338
470316.38
434025.755
415343.983
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432597.869
414177.143
434041.51
397795.422
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428181.988
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437905.505
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464033.488
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440294.63
464226.289
454579.583
438734.669
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425999.549
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425944.077
447960.623
409394.335
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406722.517
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430199.075
440438.665
433109.833
433500.371
433204.904
458836.743
418992.362
424022.915
395618.531
449264.151

476928.215
428069.355
428617.62
446740.789
431309.818
418369.843
426950.322
446168.879
458141.648
422682.267
458802.554
439074.554
462728.308
450978.668
472634.277
459226.125
466715.586
426267.174
392965.476
446400.695
440842.956
440887.465
452939.874
447972.389
451579.101
430421.355
453551.763
406226.902
500590.338
447856.183
440784.407
421141.268
418004.252
449600.44
441739.487
440386.045
435369.696
427791.823
397132.669
476141.622
429544.354
437143.304
445886.482
425363.029
441814.843
440499.444
407972.461
428375.579
460475.413
436846.761
473290.87
445281.216
450914.94
433482.083

437553.343
430653.116
441790.512
441643.154
443835.196
459298.187
434271.081
425987.753
438871.086
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434409.591
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454412.815
443813.263
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442347.623
472608.565
441874.27
429138.443
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412063.041
454069.838
412430.116
434901.872
460518.366
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452147.436
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428340.131
439305.511
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449031.01
424941.893

441342.934
441127.002
471480.476
421144.771
413338.526
428628.445
461194.966
439924.524
439047.896
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451670.36
427427.42
431038.76
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421119.577
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420266.682
439677.412
426398.329
436447.783
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441826.305
443293.834
432329.81
451066.607
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427968.073
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432687.316
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416352.221
484006.733
450335.463
470385.637
436433.884
426729.622
456009.237
431860.955
453335.869
450210.399
460165.119

449578.264
467912.872
467435.532
448798.939
401510.278
437877.022
439416.261
449099.818
430506.95
433919.49
447762.225
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435718.41
419035.289
434019.288
475709.238
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429925.951
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397701.365
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422098.906
433711.654
416661.643
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435749.105
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440363.971
429703.02
467710.307
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402922.964
458310.416
462834.462
422351.272
416650.021
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447791.275
431021.946
439175.744
480252.806
407363.783
437480.118
459011.69
445842.388
447913.514
447533.139
432294.241
440733.321

439983.27
483965.561
457884.5
402115.991
462585.737
430199.572
457194.249
434846.449
433463.181
438590.599
428187.549
423133.041
428731.412
434185.84
407473.555
419501.24
427240.498
417266.932
427848.829
431574.153
453333.534
433232.749
405985.938
442039.944
420456.212
453435.74
445663.786
438668.424
451798.94
440866.414
437710.138
459211.524
416108.258
433746.114
459087.399
415520.682
423919.644
453310.482
444395.486

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
12345678911111111112222222222333333333344
01234567890123456789012345678901

388,469.77
391,272.79
394,075.81
396,878.82
399,681.84
402,484.86
405,287.87
408,090.89
410,893.91
413,696.92
416,499.94
419,302.96
422,105.97
424,908.99
427,712.01
430,515.02
433,318.04
436,121.06
438,924.07
441,727.09
444,530.11
447,333.12
450,136.14
452,939.16
455,742.17
458,545.19
461,348.21
464,151.22
466,954.24
469,757.26
472,560.27
475,363.29
478,166.30
480,969.32
483,772.34
486,575.35
489,378.37
492,181.39
494,984.40
497,787.42

1000
439,320.44
16,871.35
1 388,469.77
1 500,590.44
2
3
6
3
3
17
11
14
31
21
32
37
48
63
69
75
68
70
48
61
56
57
37
43
29
26
12
17
12
7
7
3
4
3
1
0
0
0

500,590.44

X
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Poisson
Lamda=2
0.13533528
0.40600585
0.67667642
0.85712346
0.94734698
0.98343639
0.99546619
0.99890328
0.99976255

0
0.13533528
0.40600585
0.67667642
0.85712346
0.94734698
0.98343639
0.99546619
0.99890328
0.99976255

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

0.22436465