Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Decisin
Rosas Meneses Mario David
Barrera Pastrana Orestes de Brandon
Ejercicio de Tarea
Una
Evento
Probabilid
ad de
ocurrencia
Pozo
Productor
0.50
Pozo Seco
0.50
Reserva
2
3
4
5
BCF
BCF
BCF
BCF
---
Probabilid
ad
condicion
al
Perforar
VPN
Concesion
ar
VPN
0.35
0.35
0.20
0.10
40,000
90,000
130,000
200,000
9,000
12,500
15,000
18,000
---
-70,000
---
B
P(2
2
rar
rf o
e
P
ce
sio
na
seco
[1 P(A)]
= 0.50
BC
F|
A) =
$ 90 000
0.20
0.1
$ 130 000
$ 200 000
- $70 000
0
)=
|A
. 35
$ 9 000
CF
B
2
P(
.35
A) = 0
|
F
C
P(3B
P(4BCF | A) =
A
to ctor)
n
e
u
Ev prod
. 50
zo
0
o
=
(P
)
P(A
Pozo
$ 40 000
.3 5
A) = 0
|
F
C
P(3B
P(5
3
Co
n
.35
P(4BCF | A) =
A
to ctor)
n
e
Ev produ
. 50
zo
0
o
=
(P
)
P(A
Pozo
seco
[1 P(A)]
= 0.50
CF
0
)=
|A
P(5
BC
F|
A) =
0.20
0. 1
$ 12 500
$ 15 000
$ 18 000
$0
VME1=
VME1=
VME2=
VME2=
rf o
Pe
A
to ctor)
n
e
Ev produ
zo
0
0 .5
(Po
=
)
P(A
[1 -
rar
Pozo
P(A)]
seco
= 0.50
VME = - $ 70 000
5
Co
n
ce
sio
na
A
to ctor)
n
e
Ev produ
0
zo
0.5
=
(Po
)
P(A
[1 -
P(A)]
= 0.50
VME3 = $ 12 325
VME = $ 0
VME2=
VME2=
VME4=
VME4=
VME3 = $ 10,750
rar
o
f
er
5
Co
n
ces
i
on
a
VME4= $ 6,162.5
Gracias