Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Ao
Trimestre
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
Perodo, t
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Demanda, Dt
8,000
13,000
23,000
34,000
10,000
18,000
23,000
38,000
12,000
13,000
32,000
41,000
ESTIMACIN DE LA DEMANDA
1) Desestacionalizar la demanda
Observarla sin la influencia de fluctuaciones temporales
Ao
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
Desv Std
Dem.
Desestac
19,750
20,625
21,250
21,750
22,500
22,125
22,625
24,125
1,339
To= 524
Dem.
Factor
Trimestre Perodo, t Demanda, Dt Desestac. Dt Estac. St
2
1
8,000
18,963
0.42
3
2
13,000
19,487
0.67
4
3
23,000
20,011
1.15
1
4
34,000
20,535
1.66
2
5
10,000
21,059
0.47
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
Ao
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
18,000
23,000
38,000
12,000
13,000
32,000
41,000
21,583
22,107
22,631
23,155
23,679
24,203
24,727
0.83
1.04
1.68
0.52
0.55
1.32
1.66
Dem.
Factor
Desestac. Dt Estac. St
18,963
0.42
19,487
0.67
20,011
1.15
20,535
1.66
21,059
0.47
21,583
0.83
22,107
1.04
22,631
1.68
23,155
0.52
23,679
0.55
24,203
1.32
24,727
1.66
3) Estimacin de Forecast
Ao
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
Dem.
Trimestre Perodo, t Demanda, Dt Desestac. Dt
2
1
8,000
18,963
3
2
13,000
19,487
4
3
23,000
20,011
1
4
34,000
20,535
2
5
10,000
21,059
3
6
18,000
21,583
4
7
23,000
22,107
1
8
38,000
22,631
2
9
12,000
23,155
3
10
13,000
23,679
4
11
32,000
24,203
1
12
41,000
24,727
2
13
11,910
3
14
17,614
4
15
30,787
1
16
44,642
Factor
Estac. St
0.42
0.67
1.15
1.66
0.47
0.83
1.04
1.68
0.52
0.55
1.32
1.66
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1
10
11
12
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1
Demanda, Dt
Linear (Dem. Desestac)
Dem. Desestac
10
11
12
Factores Estacionales
S1=
S2=
S3=
S4=
Demanda Pronosticada
0.47
0.68
1.17
1.66
3.99
12%
17%
29%
42%
100%
11
11
12
12
Un supermercado ha experimentado la siguiente demanda semanal de leche: 120, 127, 114 y 122
para la 5ta semana utilizando un perodo mvil promedio de 4 semanas. Cul sera el error de pre
Venta
Semana
Galones
1
120
240
2
127
20
3
114
200
4
122
120.75
23
120.75
5
120.75 5.37742193 126.127422 115.768087
0.04453351
0.95874192
Venta Real 125 galones
Semana
1
2
3
4
5
E5
Venta
Galones
120
127
114
122
125
120.75
122
che: 120, 127, 114 y 122 galones en las 4 ltimas semanas. Pronostique la demanda
Cul sera el error de presupuesto si la demanda de la semana 5 es 125 galones?
t+1
= Lt
t+n
= Lt
Lo = (1/n) di
n=4
Lo=
120.75
Semana
1
2
3
4
Venta
Galones
120 X
127 X
114 X
122
Si la demanda observada para el perodo 1 fue de 120. El eror de forecast para el Perodo 1 es
E1 = 120.75 - 120
E1=
0.75
Con un coeficiente de suavizado de 0.1 el estimado de demanda para el perdo uno usando el mod
L1 = D1 + (1-) Lo
L1 =
L1 =
Semana
1
2
3
4
Venta
Galones
120.00
127.00
114.00
122.00
0.1x120 + 0.9x120.75
120.68
120.75
L2
1
2
3
4
5
120.68
121.38
120.08
120.88
120.74
onalidad.
0<<1
para el Perodo 1 es
121.375
126.38
114.68
Ft+1 = Lt + Tt
Ft+n = Lt + nTt
0<<1
Constante de suavizacin
0<<1
Constante de suavizacin
EJERCICIO
Un fabricante de equipos electrnicos tiene una demanda para su ltima versin de MP3 que se ha
La demanda observada (en miles) se muestra a continuacin:
n
1
2
3
4
5
6
Demanda
8,415
8,732
9,014
9,808
10,413
11,961
Estime la demanda para el perodo 7 usando elmodelo de tendencia corregida suavizada exponenc
SOLUCIN
14,000
12,000
f(x) = 673.3428571429x + 7367.1333333333
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1
L1 = D1 + (1-)(Lo+To)
L1=
8,078
L2=
8,755
T1 = (L1-LO) + (1-)To
T1 =
680
F2 =
F2 =
n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Demanda
8,415
8,732
9,014
9,808
10,413
11,961
T2=
L1 + T1
8,758
Forecast
8,040
8,758
9,435
10,065
10,706
11,337
12,072
Error
-375
26
421
257
293
-624
680
=
=
Lo=
To=
0.1
0.2
7,367
673
F1 = Lo + To
F1 =
8,040
D1 =
8,415
E1=
-375
L3=
9,393
L4=
10,039
L5=
10,676
T3=
672
T4=
666
T5=
661
L6=
11,399
T6=
673
Ft+l = (Lt+lTt)St+l
Considere el mismo ejercicio pero ahora pronostique la demanda para el perodo 1 usando el mode
Ao
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
4
Trimestre Perodo, t
2
1
3
2
4
3
1
4
2
5
3
6
4
7
1
8
2
9
3
10
4
11
1
12
Lo=
To=
S1=
S2=
S3=
S4=
18439
524
0.47
0.68
1.17
1.67
F1 =
F1 =
(Lo + To)S1
8,913
Demanda,
Dem.
Dt
Desestac
8,000
13,000
23,000
19,750
34,000
20,625
10,000
21,250
18,000
21,750
23,000
22,500
38,000
22,125
12,000
22,625
13,000
24,125
32,000
41,000
F1-D1
913
Estimaciones de Demanda
Lt+1= (Dt+1/St+1) + (1-)(Lt+Tt)
L1= (D1/S1) + (1-)(Lo+To)
L1=
18,769
485
St+p+1 = (Dt+1/Lt+1)+(1-)St+1
S5 = (D1/L1)+(1-)S1
S5=
0.47
F2 =
F2 =
(L1 + T1)S2
13,093
factor estacional
CIONALIDAD
= 0.1
= 0.2
= 0.1
supuestacin sera:
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1
Demanda, Dt
Linear (Dem. Desestac)
Dem. Desestac
10
11
81
Dem. Desestac
10
11
12
PROMEDIO MVIL
Perodo, t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Demanda,
Dt
8,000
13,000
23,000
34,000
10,000
18,000
23,000
38,000
12,000
13,000
32,000
41,000
Nivel, Lt
19,500
20,000
21,250
21,250
22,250
22,750
21,500
23,750
24,500
Forecast Ft
19,500
20,000
21,250
21,250
22,250
22,750
21,500
23,750
Error Et
9,500
2,000
-1,750
-16,750
10,250
9,750
-10,500
-17,250
Error
Absoluto
At
9,500
2,000
1,750
16,750
10,250
9,750
10,500
17,250
Perodo, t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Demanda,
Dt
8,000
13,000
23,000
34,000
10,000
18,000
23,000
38,000
12,000
13,000
32,000
41,000
Nivel, Lt Forecast Ft
22,083
20,675
22,083
19,908
20,675
20,217
19,908
21,595
20,217
20,436
21,595
20,192
20,436
20,473
20,192
22,226
20,473
21,203
22,226
20,383
21,203
21,544
20,383
23,490
21,544
Error Et
14,083
7,675
-3,093
-13,783
11,595
2,436
-2,808
-17,527
10,226
8,203
-11,617
-19,456
Error
Absoluto
At
14,083
7,675
3,093
13,783
11,595
2,436
2,808
17,527
10,226
8,203
11,617
19,456
Perodo, t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Demanda,
Dt
8,000
13,000
23,000
34,000
10,000
18,000
Nivel, Lt
12,015
13,008
14,301
16,439
19,594
20,322
21,570
Tendencia,
Tt
Forecast Ft
1,549
1,438
13,564
1,409
14,445
1,555
15,710
1,875
17,993
1,645
21,469
1,566
21,967
Error Et
5,564
1,445
-7,290
-16,007
11,469
3,967
7
8
9
10
11
12
23,000
38,000
12,000
13,000
32,000
41,000
23,123
26,018
26,262
26,298
27,963
30,443
1,563
1,830
1,513
1,217
1,307
1,541
23,137
24,686
27,847
27,775
27,515
29,270
137
-13,314
15,847
14,775
-4,485
-11,730
Perodo, t
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Demanda,
Dt
8,000
13,000
23,000
34,000
10,000
18,000
23,000
38,000
12,000
13,000
32,000
41,000
Nivel, Lt
18,439
18,866
19,367
19,869
20,380
20,911
21,677
22,088
22,621
23,267
23,571
24,250
24,770
Factor
Tendencia, Estacional
Tt
St
Forecast Ft
524
514
0.47
8,913
513
0.68
13,179
512
1.17
23,260
512
1.67
34,036
514
0.47
9,819
539
0.68
14,569
526
1.17
25,992
527
1.67
37,765
539
0.47
10,879
515
0.68
16,188
532
1.17
28,181
530
1.67
41,385
0.47
11,891
0.68
17,565
1.17
30,843
1.67
44,909
Error
Cuadrado
MSEt
90,250,000
47,125,000
32,437,500
94,468,750
96,587,500
96,333,333
98,321,429
123,226,563
Error
Cuadrado
MSEt
198,340,278
128,622,951
88,936,486
114,196,860
118,246,641
99,527,532
86,435,714
114,031,550
112,979,315
108,410,265
110,824,074
133,132,065
MADt
% Error
9,500
5,750
4,417
7,500
8,050
8,333
8,643
9,719
MADt
MAPEt
95
11
8
44
85
75
33
42
% Error
14,083
10,879
8,284
9,659
10,046
8,777
7,925
9,125
9,247
9,143
9,368
10,208
Error
Absoluto At
5,564
1,445
7,290
16,007
11,469
3,967
Error
Cuadrado
MSEt
30,958,096
16,523,523
28,732,318
85,603,146
94,788,701
81,613,705
95
53
38
39
49
53
50
49
MAPEt
176
59
13
41
116
14
12
46
85
63
36
47
0.1
TSt
176
118
83
72
81
70
62
60
62
63
60
59
MADt
5,564
3,505
4,767
7,577
8,355
7,624
1.00
2.00
2.21
-0.93
0.40
1.56
0.29
-1.52
TSt
1.00
2.00
2.25
0.51
1.64
2.15
2.03
-0.16
0.95
1.86
0.58
-1.38
0.2
% Error
70
11
32
47
115
22
MAPEt
69.55
40.33
37.46
39.86
54.83
49.36
TSt
1.00
2.00
-0.06
-2.15
-0.58
-0.11
137
13,314
15,847
14,775
4,485
11,730
69,957,267
83,369,836
102,010,079
113,639,348
105,137,395
107,841,864
6,554
7,399
8,338
8,981
8,573
8,836
0.05
Error Et
913
179
260
36
-181
-3,431
2,992
-235
-1,121
3,188
-3,819
385
Error
Absoluto
At
913
179
260
36
181
3,431
2,992
235
1,121
3,188
3,819
385
1
35
132
114
14
29
=
Error
Cuadrado
MSEt
832,857
432,367
310,720
233,364
193,242
2,123,421
3,099,234
2,718,717
2,556,150
3,316,811
4,340,901
3,991,516
42.39
41.48
51.54
57.75
53.78
51.68
-0.11
-1.90
0.22
1.85
1.41
0.04
0.1
MADt
913
546
450
347
314
833
1,142
1,028
1,039
1,253
1,487
1,395
% Error
11
1
1
0
2
19
13
1
9
25
12
1
MAPEt
11.41
6.39
4.64
3.50
3.17
5.81
6.84
6.06
6.43
8.24
8.57
7.94
Demanda, Dt
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1
10
11
12
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1
Demanda, Dt
0.1
TSt
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
3.85
-2.67
0.67
0.52
-0.57
2.07
-0.82
-0.60
Lo=
To=
S1=
S2=
S3=
S4=
18439
524
0.47
0.68
1.17
1.67
10
11
12
10
11
12
a, Dt)
10
11
12
MAD
MAPE(%)
TS Rango
9,719
49 -1.52 a 2.21
10,208
59 -1.38 a 2.25
8,836
51.68 -2.15 a 2
1,395
7.94 -2.67 a 4