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UNIVERSIDAD SAN PEDRO

FACULTAD DE INGENIERA
ESCUELA DE INGENIERA CIVIL

CURSO:
ABASTECIMIENTO DE AGUA Y ALCANTARILLADO
TEMA:
POBLACIN FUTURA
DOCENTE:
ING. LPEZ CARRANZA RUBN
ALUMNO:
NORABUENA SANDOVAL FERGIE SOLANGE
CICLO:
Ciclo VIII
CHIMBOTE- PER
2015

1. MTODO ARITMTICO

AO
1993
2005
2007
2012

POBLACION
4972
4611
3889
3651

r1=

3651 - 3889 =
2012 - 2007

-47.60

r2=

3889 - 4611 =
2007 - 2005

-361.00

r3=

4611 - 4972 =
2005 - 1993

-30.08

-146.23

Pf

2015 =

3212.32

Pf

2035 =

287.76

Pf

2050 = -1905.66

Sumatoria

Poblacion Futura

Pf = Pa + r * DIF(AOS)

2. MTODO GEOMTRICO
AO

PA
1993
2005
2007
2012

AO
2015
2035
2050

T
4972
4611
3889
3651

PROYECCION
A
FUTURO
3296.452096
1668.321226
1001.046739

r
0
12
2
5

0.993738
0.918378
0.987449
0.9665217
81

3. MTODO DE LA ECUACIN DE SEGUNDO GRADO


2005
2007
2012

4611
3889
3651

0
2
5

4611 = 0. A + 0.B + C
3889 = 22. A + 2.B + C
3651 = 52. A + 5.B + C
C = 4611
A = 56.46
B = -474.3

PARA 2015
Pf 2015 = 56.46 * 10 * 10 + 10 * -474.3 + 4611 = 5514 hab
PARA 2035
Pf 2015 = 56.46 * 20 * 20 + 20 * -474.3 + 4611 = 17709 hab
PARA 2050
Pf 2015 = 56.46 * 45 * 45 + 45 * -474.3 + 4611 = 97599 hab

4. MTODO DE CURVA EXPONENCIAL (FOWELL)

Y =a+bc x
2005
2007
2012

4611
3889
3651

Ao Base 2005 x=0


Primer paso:

Segundo paso:

Pf 2005 = 4611 = a + b c

4611 = a + b c

Pf 2007 = 3889 = a + b c

4611 = a + b

Pf 2012 = 3651 = a + b c

a = 4611 b

3889 = a + b c

3651 = a + b c

3889 = 4611 b + b * c2

3651 = 4611 b + b * c7

b * c2 b = -722

b * c7 b = -960

b (c2 1) = -722

b (c7 1) = -960

b(c 71) 960


=
b(c 21) 722
C = 0.504123
Entonces
b ( c2 1 ) = -722
b = -722/ (0.5041232 - 1)
b = 968.0101
a= 4611 967.0101
a = 3642.9899

y 2015 = 3642.9899 + 968.0101 * 0.504123

10

= 3644.016131

y 2035 = 3642.9899 + 968.0101 * 0.504123

30

= 3642.989901

y 2015 = 3642.9899 + 968.0101 * 0.504123

45

= 3642.9899

5. MTODO DE INCREMENTO VARIABLE

2005
2007
2012

1=

4611
3889
3651

0
722
238

0
0
484

722+238
=480
2

2=48

Pf 2015 = Pa + m

+ m(m+1)* 2

/2

Pf 2015 = 3651 + 0.3 (-480) + 0.3(0.3+1)*484 / 2 = 3601.38 = 3602


Habitantes
Pf 2035 = 3651 + 2.3 (-480) + 2.3(3.3+1)*484 / 2 = 4383.78 = 4384
Habitantes
Pf 2050 = 3651 + 3.8 (-480) + 3.8(3.8+1)*484 / 2 = 6241.08 = 6242
Habitantes

6. MTODO DE PORCENTAJE

2005
2007
2012

4611
3889
3651

0
-722
-238

722100
=15.65
4611
238100
=6.11
3889
21.76
=3.10
20122005

Pf 2015 = Pa + Pa (%Pr)(n) /100


Pf 2015 = 3651 + 3651 * -3.1 * 3 / 100 = 3311.45 = 3312 Habitantes
Pf 2035 = 3651 + 3651 * -3.1 * 23 / 100 = 1047.837 = 1048 Habitantes
Pf 2050 = 3651 + 3651 * -3.1 * 38 / 100 = -649.87 = 650 Habitantes

7. MTODO DE INCREMENTO MEDIO TOTAL

2005
2007
2012

4611
3889
3651
Log

0
2
5

3.66 0
3.58
3.56

-0.08
-0.02

Pf =log Pa+ n log Pa(1+ r)

Entonces:

log (1+r )
n

0.08
=0.04
2

0.02
=0.0004
5

Promedio log (1+r) = - 0.0202

Log 2015 P = log(3651) + 3 * -0.0202 = 3.50


Habitantes

Entonces = 3162

Log 2035 P = log(3651) + 23 * -0.0202 = 3.09


Habitantes

Entonces = 1230

Log 2050 P = log(3651) + 38 * -0.0202 = 2.79


Habitantes

Entonces = 616

8. MTODO RACIONAL
Pr = Pa + Vto + mov migratorio

V=

N D
n

n=4

AO
1993
2005
2007
2012
TOTAL

NACIMIENT
O
100
73
67
38
278

DEFUNCION
ES
26
18
15
9
68

V = (275 - 68) / 4 = 51.75

Entonces:
Pr 2015 = 3651 + 51.75 * (3) = 3806.25 = 3807 Habitantes
Pr 2035 = 3651 + 51.75 * (23) = 4841.25 = 4842 Habitantes
Pr 2050 = 3651 + 51.75 * (38) = 5617.5 = 5618 Habitantes