Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Econometria Unan
Econometria Unan
R. Maha
Mayo 2001
ESQUEMA DE PRESENTACIN:
- Definicin de estacionariedad
- Concepto de integrabilidad y raz unitaria
- Mtodos simples de deteccin de la no estacionariedad
- Introduccin del test DF
- Problemas de la aplicacin del test DF:
Test DF y P.G.D
Test DF en modelos AR(p)
Test DF en presencia de autocorrelacin serial
Test DF en modelos MA(q)
Test DF y Cambio Estructural
- Conclusiones
Uso correcto de muchas de las distribuciones en las etapas del contraste y validacin
de los modelos economtricos
1 0 ,0 0
8 ,0 0
6 ,0 0
4 ,0 0
2 ,0 0
0 ,0 0
- 2 ,0 0
1
11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
PRODUCTIVIDAD TOTAL
340
145
320
125
300
105
280
85
260
65
240
45
220
25
250,00
200,00
150,00
100,00
50,00
0,00
- 50,00
1
11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
7700
16200
6700
15200
5700
14200
4700
3700
13200
2700
12200
1700
11200
TENDENCIA ESTOCSTICA
-
yt = y0 + i
i =1
E[y t ] = E y 0 + i = E[y 0 ] = y 0
i =1
t
V [ y t ] = E [ y t E [ y t ]] = E y 0 + i y 0 = E i =
i =1
i =1
2
2
2
2
= E 1 + 2 ..... + 1 2 + 1 3 + ..... = E 1 + 2 .... + t2 = t 2
Ser posible que existan series que exhiban este tipo de tendencia estocstica?
Paseo aleatorio I
30
180
25
160
20
140
15
120
10
100
80
60
-5
40
1
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81
Paseo aleatorio II
60
240
50
220
40
200
30
180
20
160
10
140
1
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
120
1
11
13
15
yt = y0 + a0t + i
i =1
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
y t = 0.5 + y t 1 + i*
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96
REGRESIONES ESPURIAS
y t = a 0 + a1 xt + et
-
i =0
i =0
et = 1i a1 2i
V [y t ] = V [ y t y t 1 ] = E [( y t y t 1 ) E [ y t y t 1 ]] =
2
t
t 1
t
t 1
2
E y 0 + i y 0 i E y 0 + i y 0 i = E [ t ] = 2
i =1
i =1
i =1
i =1
E [y t ] = E [ y t y t 1 ] = E y 0 + a 0 t + i y 0 a 0 (t 1) + i = E [a 0 + t ] = a 0
i =1
i =1
V [y t ] = E [( y t y t 1 ) E [ y t y t 1 ]]
t
t 1
= E y 0 + a 0 t + i y 0 a 0 (t 1) i a 0 =
i =1
i =1
[ ]
= E [a 0 + t a 0 ] = E t2 = 2
2
Series I(1)
Su varianza depende del tiempo y tiende a
finito a medida que el tiempo tiende a
infinito
Cualquier innovacin afecta
permanentemente
a sus procesos
13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97
Raiz Unitaria
Estacionario
AR(1) (0,5)
11
13
15
AR(1) (0,7)
17
19
21
AR(1) (0,8)
23
Paseo Aleatorio
t 1
1 = a1 ; 2 = a ; 3 = a ,............; s = a1s
2
1
3
1
t 1
t s
s =
t
0.5
El problema es, una vez ms, el caso de races muy cercanas a la unidad
a1=1
-1
a1=0,99
-1
a1=0,98
-1
a1=0,97
1 -1
a1=0,96
-1
a1=0,95
1 -1
DW =
(et et 1 ) 2
t =2
e
t =1
2
t
(y
t =2
n
(y
t =1
y t 1 )
yt )
Debemos usar las tablas de Dickey (1976) y Fuller (1976) Mackinnon (1991)
y t y t 1 = a 0 + a1 y t 1 y t 1 + t
y t = a 0 + ( a1 1) y t 1 + t
y t = a 0 + y t 1 + t
H0: =0 frente a H1: <0.
-
Los valores de referencia para el contraste del parmetro dependen del proceso
generador de datos elegido:
Modelo 1 (simple) (): y t = y t 1 + t
Modelo 2 (con constante) (): y t = a 0 + y t 1 + t
Modelo 3 (con constante y tend. determinista) (): y t = a 0 + y t 1 + a 2 t + t
(SCRmr SCRmnr ) r
SCRmnr n k
Modelo
y t = a 0 + y t 1 + a 2 t + t
y t = a 0 + y t 1 + t
y t = y t 1 + t
Hiptesis nula
=0
a0=0 dado =0
a2=0 dado =0
=a2=0
a0==a2=0
=0
a0=0 dado =0
a0==0
=0
Valores
crticos
Estadstico 95 % 99 %
-3.45 -4.04
3.11
3.78
2.79
3.53
6.49
8.73
3
4.88
6.50
2
-2.89 -3.51
2.54
3.22
4.71
6.70
1
-1.95 -2.60
H1
DF sobre yt
H0
yt~I(0)
DF sobre yt
H0
H1
yt~I(1)
DF sobre yt
H0
H1
yt~I(2)
Orden superior a 2.
No integrable.
Fallo DF
Test ADF:
p
y t = a 0 + y t 1 + i y t i +1 + t
i =2
con:
p
= 1 a i
i =1
p
i = ai
j =1
Sin embargo, conviene recordar que el propio Fuller demostr que la distribucin
asinttica del estadstico t del parmetro estimado, es independiente del nmero
de retardos de la variable diferenciada que incluyamos en la especificacin del
modelo estimado.
Por tanto el el test ADF es conceptualmente til como posible correccin a los
problemas de autocorrelacin que pudieran aparecer en el trmino de error del
modelo bsico utilizado en el test simple DF: Solucin Paramtrica de la
Autocorrelacin (Dickey y Fuller 1981)
Para la aplicacin del test DF se asume que los errores del modelo estn idntica e
independientemente distribuidos.
n
n
n
2
E ( i )
2 = lim i =1
n
n
En los trabajos Phillips (1987) y Phillips y Perron (1988) se sugieren utilizar los
residuos obtenidos en la estimacin del modelo DF simple para transformar los
estadsticos t asociados a los parmetros del mismo:
n
2 =
i =1
(1 r l + 1) e e
ei2
y
2 =
ei2
i =1
+2
r =1
i = r +1
ir
1
2
( 2 2 )
n
y
t =2
2
t 1
n2
2
n3 ( 2 2 )
Z ( ) = 2
4 3Dy
A partir de los trabajos de estos autores se han propuestos otras correcciones otros
estimadores como el de Newey y West (1987, 1994)
C(L)y t = t
y t = a 0 + y t 1 + i y t i +1 + t
i =2
Debemos acudir a trabajos como los presentados por Said y Dickey (1984) sobre el
contraste de races unitarias en procesos ARMA de orden desconocido: ... un
modelo ARIMA (p,1,q) de rdenes desconocidos poda ser aproximado
adecuadamente por un modelo ARIMA (s,1,0) de orden s no superior a la raz
cbica del tamao muestral n....
Debe vigilarse especialmente la prdida de potencia del test ADF y PP sealada por
Molinas (1986) y Molinas y Schwert (1987 y 1989) en el caso de procesos MA
cercanos a la no invertibilidad.
5
4
10
3
8
2
6
0
-1
-2
0
-3
-2
-4
-4
-5
Serie en niveles
Serie diferenciada
Residuos niveles
Resiudos diferencias
ERROR POR APLICACIN DEL TEST DF: Proceso Generador Real AR(1)
estacionario con cambio de tendencia de escaln.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Soluciones:
Aplicar DF ADF en las submuestras
Utilizar la propuesta de Perron en dos pasos (1989).
Integracin peridica
Integracin fraccional
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