Ventas histricas de Microsoft

Ao
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Ao
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

Ventas
98
140
198
346
591
804
1183
1843
2759
3753

Precio de Cierre de Accin Dividendo

16.5
27.88
37.13
39.00
42.75
68.50
73.25
83.50
60.75
59.38
65.63

0.75
0.8
0.9
1
1.15
1.35
1.64
2
2.2
2.42
2.5
Promedio
Desv, Estan

Rendimiento de Lilli vs Mercado

0.8
0.6
f(x) = 1.5928661131x - 0.0173630945
0.4
R = 0.4957752489

Rendimien

Logarithm

Rendimiento de Lilli vs Mercado

0.8
0.6
f(x) = 1.5928661131x - 0.0173630945
0.4
R = 0.4957752489

Rendimien

Logarithm
(Rendimie
Lilli)

0.2
0
-0.05

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

-0.2
-0.4

xi

yi

Mes

Unidades Producidas

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

500
600
400
300
800
900
600
400
300
200
400
600
700
500
300
200
400

Sxy
Sx
Sy

#NAME?
65856.7779870823
40403.5374253836

rxy

0.9857665306

Total Costo
131000
135000
104000
76000
186000
190100
150000
98000
78000
60000
108000
152000
158000
134380
86000
60002

0.3

0.35

Mes
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Unidades Producidas
500
600
400
300
800
900
600
400
300
200
400
600
700
500
300
200
400

Total Costo
131000
135000
104000
76000
186000
190100
150000
98000
78000
60000
108000
152000
158000
134380
86000
60002

4000

f(x) = 63.6810405841 exp( 0.4171228248 x )

R = 0.9966693952

3500
3000
2500

Column C

2000

Exponential (Column C)

1500
1000
500
0
0

Rendimiento de Mercado
0.0627
0.3216
0.1847
0.0523
0.1681
0.3149
-0.0317
0.3055
0.0767
0.0999
0.0131
0.14252727
0.1297572987

Rendimiento de Lilli
0.7381818182
0.3640602582
0.0772959871
0.1256410256
0.6339181287
0.0932846715
0.1672354949
-0.2461077844
0.0172839506
0.1473560121
0.2118149563
0.2928140012

Lilli vs Mercado

Rendimiento de Lilli
Logarithmic

10

12

Lilli vs Mercado

Rendimiento de Lilli
Logarithmic
(Rendimiento de
Lilli)
0.25

0.3

0.35

200000
180000

f(x) = 198.4650824442x + 23643.8040737149

R = 0.9717356528

160000
140000
120000
Column

100000

Linear (C

80000
60000
40000
20000
0
100

y
x

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

al (Column C)

Column D
Linear (Column D)

900

1000

Mes

Unidades Producidas

Total Costo

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

500
600
400
300
800
900
600
400
300
200
400
600
700
500
300
200
400

131000
135000
104000
76000
186000
190100
150000
98000
78000
60000
108000
152000
158000
134380
86000
60002

INTERSECCIN
PENDIENTE
Error estandar
Rcuadrado
Produccin

Prediccin de la
Funcin de
Tendencia
122876.35
142722.85
103029.84
83183.33
182415.87
202262.38
142722.85
103029.84
83183.33
63336.82
103029.84
142722.85
162569.36
122876.35
83183.33
63336.82
103029.84

23643.8040737148
198.4650824442
7261.6421517204
0.9717356528

Costo Predecido
Prob (Costos >=$145,000)
.001
122879

Prediccin
de la
Ecuacin
Lineal
122876.35
142722.85
103029.84
83183.33
182415.87
202262.38
142722.85
103029.84
83183.33
63336.82
103029.84
142722.85
162569.36
122876.35
83183.33
63336.82
103029.84

Residuales
8123.65
-7722.85
970.16
-7183.33
3584.13
-12162.38
7277.15
-5029.84
-5183.33
-3336.82
4970.16
9277.15
-4569.36
11503.65
2816.67
-3334.82
0.00

RESUMEN DE SALIDA
ESTADISTICAS DE LA REGRESION
MULTIPLE R
0.98576653
R PLAZA
0.97173565
AJUSTADO R PLAZA
ESTANDAR DE ER 7261.64215
OBSERVACIN
16
ANOVA
df

SS

REGRESIN
RESIDUAL
TOTAL

MS

SIGNIFICADO F

1
14
15
COEFICIENT
ES

ERROR
ESTANDAR

INTERCEPT
23643.8041
UNITS PRODUCED 198.465082

Mes

Unidades
Producidas

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

500
600
400
300
800
900
600
400
300
200
400
600
700
500
300
200
400

Total Costo
131000
135000
104000
76000
186000
190100
150000
98000
78000
60000
108000
152000
158000
134380
86000
60002

T STAD

P-VALUE

LOWER 95%

NIFICADO F

UPPER 95%

LOWER
95.0%

UPPER
95.0%