Demanda

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

Semanas

Demandad

Pronostico

Error

Error
Adsoluto

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96

102.67
112.00
99.67
92.33
102.00
108.33
113.33
89.67
120.00
119.00
135.33
114.67
115.33
120.00
101.33
90.00
87.33
99.67
103.33
101.00
101.00
97.33
99.00
104.00
113.67
111.67
100.00
110.00
109.00
114.33
104.00

-10.67
-32.00
5.33
28.67
-3.00
11.67
-63.33
100.33
-3.00
-20.00
-7.33
4.33
-2.33
-48.00
-16.33
15.00
21.67
-3.67
-5.33
8.00
-16.00
5.67
25.00
10.00
-16.67
-22.67
44.00
-16.00
-4.00
-1.33
-8.00

10.67
32.00
5.33
28.67
3.00
11.67
63.33
100.33
3.00
20.00
7.33
4.33
2.33
48.00
16.33
15.00
21.67
3.67
5.33
8.00
16.00
5.67
25.00
10.00
16.67
22.67
44.00
16.00
4.00
1.33
8.00

44
45
46
47
48
49
50

125
118
97
135
147
110
103

DESV.
ESTANDAR
DEMANDA

22.39

DEMANDA
PROMEDIO

107.06

CV

104.67
111.33
113.00
113.33
116.67
126.33
130.67

20.92%

20.33
6.67
-16.00
21.67
30.33
-16.33
-27.67

20.33
6.67
16.00
21.67
30.33
16.33
27.67
18.90
MAD

Error Cuadratico

APE

APE`

113.78
1024.00
28.44
821.78
9.00
136.11
4011.11
10066.78
9.00
400.00
53.78
18.78
5.44
2304.00
266.78
225.00
469.44
13.44
28.44
64.00
256.00
32.11
625.00
100.00
277.78
513.78
1936.00
256.00
16.00
1.78
64.00

11.59%
40.00%
5.08%
23.69%
3.03%
9.72%
126.67%
52.81%
2.56%
20.20%
5.73%
3.64%
2.06%
66.67%
19.22%
14.29%
19.88%
3.82%
5.44%
7.34%
18.82%
5.50%
20.16%
8.77%
17.18%
25.47%
30.56%
17.02%
3.81%
1.18%
8.33%

10.39%
28.57%
5.35%
31.05%
2.94%
10.77%
55.88%
111.90%
2.50%
16.81%
5.42%
3.78%
2.02%
40.00%
16.12%
16.67%
24.81%
3.68%
5.16%
7.92%
15.84%
5.82%
25.25%
9.62%
14.66%
20.30%
44.00%
14.55%
3.67%
1.17%
7.69%

413.44
44.44
256.00
469.44
920.11
266.78
765.44
717.98
ECM

16.27%
5.65%
16.49%
16.05%
20.63%
14.85%
26.86%
18.87%
MAPE

19.43%
5.99%
14.16%
19.12%
26.00%
12.93%
21.17%
17.98%
MAPE`

Semanas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

Demandad Pronostico
92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96

101.67
96.67
94.00
97.50
107.00
104.00
102.83
95.83
114.17
116.17
112.50
117.33
117.17
127.67
108.00
102.67
103.67
100.50
96.67
94.17
100.33
100.33
100.00
102.50
105.50
105.33
102.00
111.83
110.33
107.17
107.00

Error

Error
Adsoluto

Error
Cuadratico

-9.67
-16.67
11.00
23.50
-8.00
16.00
-52.83
94.17
2.83
-17.17
15.50
1.67
-4.17
-55.67
-23.00
2.33
5.33
-4.50
1.33
14.83
-15.33
2.67
24.00
11.50
-8.50
-16.33
42.00
-17.83
-5.33
5.83
-11.00

9.67
16.67
11.00
23.50
8.00
16.00
52.83
94.17
2.83
17.17
15.50
1.67
4.17
55.67
23.00
2.33
5.33
4.50
1.33
14.83
15.33
2.67
24.00
11.50
8.50
16.33
42.00
17.83
5.33
5.83
11.00

93.44
277.78
121.00
552.25
64.00
256.00
2791.36
8867.36
8.03
294.69
240.25
2.78
17.36
3098.78
529.00
5.44
28.44
20.25
1.78
220.03
235.11
7.11
576.00
132.25
72.25
266.78
1764.00
318.03
28.44
34.03
121.00

44
45
46
47
48
49
50

125
118
97
135
147
110
103

DESV.
ESTANDAR
DEMANDA

22.39

DEMANDA
PROMEDIO

107.06

CV

20.92%

106.83
112.83
108.50
109.00
114.00
119.67
122.00

18.17
5.17
-11.50
26.00
33.00
-9.67
-19.00

18.17
5.17
11.50
26.00
33.00
9.67
19.00
17.45
MAD

330.03
26.69
132.25
676.00
1089.00
93.44
361.00
625.09
ECM

APE

APE`

10.51%
20.83%
10.48%
19.42%
8.08%
13.33%
105.67%
49.56%
2.42%
17.34%
12.11%
1.40%
3.69%
77.31%
27.06%
2.22%
4.89%
4.69%
1.36%
13.61%
18.04%
2.59%
19.35%
10.09%
8.76%
18.35%
29.17%
18.97%
5.08%
5.16%
11.46%

9.51%
17.24%
11.70%
24.10%
7.48%
15.38%
51.38%
98.26%
2.48%
14.78%
13.78%
1.42%
3.56%
43.60%
21.30%
2.27%
5.14%
4.48%
1.38%
15.75%
15.28%
2.66%
24.00%
11.22%
8.06%
15.51%
41.18%
15.95%
4.83%
5.44%
10.28%

14.53%
4.38%
11.86%
19.26%
22.45%
8.79%
18.45%
17.18%
MAPE

17.00%
4.58%
10.60%
23.85%
28.95%
8.08%
15.57%
16.53%
MAPE`

Semanas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

Demandad Pronostico
92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96

101.22
101.67
97.89
98.56
98.44
98.78
102.78
101.22
109.33
108.22
109.00
114.33
115.89
115.00
112.00
108.11
114.22
105.22
102.89
102.78
100.67
96.89
95.78
101.56
104.78
103.89
101.67
107.00
106.56
106.11
109.22

Error

Error
Adsoluto

Error
Cuadratico

-9.22
-21.67
7.11
22.44
0.56
21.22
-52.78
88.78
7.67
-9.22
19.00
4.67
-2.89
-43.00
-27.00
-3.11
-5.22
-9.22
-4.89
6.22
-15.67
6.11
28.22
12.44
-7.78
-14.89
42.33
-13.00
-1.56
6.89
-13.22

9.22
21.67
7.11
22.44
0.56
21.22
52.78
88.78
7.67
9.22
19.00
4.67
2.89
43.00
27.00
3.11
5.22
9.22
4.89
6.22
15.67
6.11
28.22
12.44
7.78
14.89
42.33
13.00
1.56
6.89
13.22

85.05
469.44
50.57
503.75
0.31
450.38
2785.49
7881.49
58.78
85.05
361.00
21.78
8.35
1849.00
729.00
9.68
27.27
85.05
23.90
38.72
245.44
37.35
796.49
154.86
60.49
221.68
1792.11
169.00
2.42
47.46
174.83

44
45
46
47
48
49
50

125
118
97
135
147
110
103

108.44
108.56
109.00
109.00
114.11
114.44
116.22

16.56
9.44
-12.00
26.00
32.89
-4.44
-13.22

16.56
9.44
12.00
26.00
32.89
4.44
13.22
16.91
MAD

274.09
89.20
144.00
676.00
1081.68
19.75
174.83
570.68
ECM

APE

APE`

10.02%
27.08%
6.77%
18.55%
0.56%
17.69%
105.56%
46.73%
6.55%
9.32%
14.84%
3.92%
2.56%
59.72%
31.76%
2.96%
4.79%
9.61%
4.99%
5.71%
18.43%
5.93%
22.76%
10.92%
8.02%
16.73%
29.40%
13.83%
1.48%
6.10%
13.77%

9.11%
21.31%
7.26%
22.77%
0.56%
21.48%
51.35%
87.71%
7.01%
8.52%
17.43%
4.08%
2.49%
37.39%
24.11%
2.88%
4.57%
8.76%
4.75%
6.05%
15.56%
6.31%
29.47%
12.25%
7.42%
14.33%
41.64%
12.15%
1.46%
6.49%
12.11%

13.24%
8.00%
12.37%
19.26%
22.37%
4.04%
12.84%
16.56%
MAPE

15.27%
8.70%
11.01%
23.85%
28.82%
3.88%
11.38%
16.10%
MAPE`

Semanas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

Demandad Pronostico
92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96

103.92
103.92
100.00
99.00
101.75
100.50
102.25
96.25
104.08
106.83
109.75
110.67
110.00
111.75
111.08
109.42
108.08
108.92
106.92
110.92
104.17
101.50
101.83
101.50
101.08
99.75
101.17
106.08
105.17
104.83
106.25

Error

Error
Adsoluto

Error
Cuadratico

-11.92
-23.92
5.00
22.00
-2.75
19.50
-52.25
93.75
12.92
-7.83
18.25
8.33
3.00
-39.75
-26.08
-4.42
0.92
-12.92
-8.92
-1.92
-19.17
1.50
22.17
12.50
-4.08
-10.75
42.83
-12.08
-0.17
8.17
-10.25

11.92
23.92
5.00
22.00
2.75
19.50
52.25
93.75
12.92
7.83
18.25
8.33
3.00
39.75
26.08
4.42
0.92
12.92
8.92
1.92
19.17
1.50
22.17
12.50
4.08
10.75
42.83
12.08
0.17
8.17
10.25

142.01
572.01
25.00
484.00
7.56
380.25
2730.06
8789.06
166.84
61.36
333.06
69.44
9.00
1580.06
680.34
19.51
0.84
166.84
79.51
3.67
367.36
2.25
491.36
156.25
16.67
115.56
1834.69
146.01
0.03
66.69
105.06

44
45
46
47
48
49
50

125
118
97
135
147
110
103

106.08
107.42
110.17
109.67
110.58
113.33
114.42

18.92
10.58
-13.17
25.33
36.42
-3.33
-11.42

18.92
10.58
13.17
25.33
36.42
3.33
11.42
16.82
MAD

357.84
112.01
173.36
641.78
1326.17
11.11
130.34
588.29
ECM

APE

APE`

12.95%
29.90%
4.76%
18.18%
2.78%
16.25%
104.50%
49.34%
11.04%
7.91%
14.26%
7.00%
2.65%
55.21%
30.69%
4.21%
0.84%
13.45%
9.10%
1.76%
22.55%
1.46%
17.88%
10.96%
4.21%
12.08%
29.75%
12.85%
0.16%
7.23%
10.68%

11.47%
23.02%
5.00%
22.22%
2.70%
19.40%
51.10%
97.40%
12.41%
7.33%
16.63%
7.53%
2.73%
35.57%
23.48%
4.04%
0.85%
11.86%
8.34%
1.73%
18.40%
1.48%
21.77%
12.32%
4.04%
10.78%
42.34%
11.39%
0.16%
7.79%
9.65%

15.13%
8.97%
13.57%
18.77%
24.77%
3.03%
11.08%
16.37%
MAPE

17.83%
9.85%
11.95%
23.10%
32.93%
2.94%
9.98%
16.14%
MAPE`

N
3
6
9
12

MAD
18.90
17.45
16.91
16.82

ECM
717.98
625.09
570.68
588.29

MAPE
18.87%
17.18%
16.56%
16.37%

MAPE`
17.98%
16.53%
16.10%
16.14%

Semanas
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43

Demandad Pronostico
92
127
117
88
114
99
122
96
84
64
117
127
92
80
105
121
99
120
50
190
117
99
128
119
113
72
85
105
109
96
98
109
85
103
124
114
97
89
144
94
105
113
96

103.92
103.80
103.56
103.57
103.75
103.70
103.86
103.33
104.19
104.32
104.27
104.50
104.65
104.73
104.41
104.21
104.22
104.27
104.18
104.12
104.17
103.98
103.97
104.17
104.27
104.20
104.04
104.44
104.34
104.35
104.43

Error

Error
Adsoluto

Error
Cuadratico

-11.92
-23.80
1.44
17.43
-4.75
16.30
-53.86
86.67
12.81
-5.32
23.73
14.50
8.35
-32.73
-19.41
0.79
4.78
-8.27
-6.18
4.88
-19.17
-0.98
20.03
9.83
-7.27
-15.20
39.96
-10.44
0.66
8.65
-8.43

11.92
23.80
1.44
17.43
4.75
16.30
53.86
86.67
12.81
5.32
23.73
14.50
8.35
32.73
19.41
0.79
4.78
8.27
6.18
4.88
19.17
0.98
20.03
9.83
7.27
15.20
39.96
10.44
0.66
8.65
8.43

142.01
566.32
2.07
303.67
22.55
265.67
2901.30
7512.54
164.05
28.30
563.27
210.13
69.74
1071.42
376.56
0.62
22.86
68.34
38.24
23.79
367.53
0.96
401.22
96.63
52.83
230.90
1596.52
109.06
0.44
74.90
71.10

44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

125
118
97
135
147
110
103

104.35
104.55
104.69
104.61
104.92
105.34
105.38
105.36

20.65
13.45
-7.69
30.39
42.08
4.66
-2.38

20.65
13.45
7.69
30.39
42.08
4.66
2.38
16.31
MAD

426.52
180.79
59.11
923.45
1771.10
21.75
5.68
545.89
ECM

APE

APE`
Alpha

12.95%
29.75%
1.37%
14.40%
4.80%
13.58%
107.73%
45.62%
10.95%
5.37%
18.54%
12.18%
7.39%
45.46%
22.83%
0.75%
4.39%
8.61%
6.31%
4.47%
22.55%
0.95%
16.15%
8.62%
7.49%
17.07%
27.75%
11.11%
0.63%
7.66%
8.78%

11.47%
22.93%
1.39%
16.82%
4.58%
15.72%
51.86%
83.89%
12.29%
5.10%
22.76%
13.87%
7.98%
31.25%
18.59%
0.76%
4.59%
7.93%
5.94%
4.68%
18.40%
0.94%
19.27%
9.44%
6.97%
14.58%
38.40%
10.00%
0.63%
8.29%
8.07%

0.01

16.52%
11.39%
7.93%
22.51%
28.63%
4.24%
2.31%
15.78%
MAPE

19.79%
12.86%
7.34%
29.05%
40.11%
4.43%
2.26%
15.66%
MAPE`