MERINO HERNANDEZ JOSUE

201006206

Alcantarillado

CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURA

Mtodo Aritmtico

Pd= 20 aos
Pf = Po + Rprom (t-t0)

Ao
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014

Poblacion
1400
1600
1890
2100
2400

P
200
290
210
300

t
5
5
5
5

R(P/ t)
40
58
42
60
200 / 4 = 50

Pf = 2400 + 50(20) = 3400 hab

Mtodo Geomtrico
Pf= Po * Rprom^(t-t0)
Ao
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014

Poblacion
1400
1600
1890
2100
2300

t
5
5
5
5

R
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.03
4.11 / 4 = 1.03

R = (1600/1400) ^ 1/(1999-1994) = 1.03

R = (1890/1600) ^ 1/(2004-1999) = 1.03
R = (2100/1890) ^ 1/(2009-2004) = 1.02
R = (2300/2100) ^ 1/(2014-2009) = 1.03
Pf = 2400 * 1.03 ^ 20 = 4335 hab

MERINO HERNANDEZ JOSUE

201006206

Alcantarillado

Mtodo Exponencial
AO
1994
1999
2004
2009
2014

POBLACION
1400
1600
1890
2100
2300

K
0.026
0.033
0.021
0.026
0.106 / 4 = 0.0265

Hallar K1 de 1994 a 1999

Hallar K1 de 1994 a 1999

K1 = Ln 1600 Ln 1400 = 0.026

1999 1994

K3 = Ln 2100 Ln 1890= 0.021

2009 2004

Hallar K1 de 1994 a 1999

Hallar K1 de 1994 a 1999

K2 = Ln 1890 Ln 1600 = 0.033

2004 1999

K4 = Ln 2400 Ln 2100 = 0.026

2014 2009

Pf = 2400 * ^(0.0265)(20) = 4077 hab

MTODO ARITMTICO
MTODO GEOMTRICO
MTODO EXPONENCIAL
PROMEDIO

3400
4335
4077

3937 HAB