WTI Spot Price

WTI Spot Price
by Eduardo Petazze
Last Updated: February 9, 2016
The international market continues with a structural oversupply of oil.
Futures markets continue normal contango. Prices continue irreversibly depressed.
Our forecast for WTI for the period 2017/2021, is between 35.0 $/bbl and 61.0 $/bbl, on average -6.76 $/bbl lower than our previous estimate.
World oil consumption is estimated to grow 1.41 mbpd in 2016 and 1.59 mbpd in 2017.
The global oil supply is expected to grow 1.05 mmbpd in 2016 and 0.93 mmbpd in 2017.
Contents
1) Summary - Forecast international prices of crude oil
2) Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
i. World Petroleum Consumption
ii. World Petroleum Supply
3) US Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures
i. Evolution of the consumer price index
4) WTI Spot Price FOB at Constant (2009) Dollars
5) Miscellaneous
i. Evolution of futures markets - Commitments of Traders
ii. Impact of the oversupply of OPEC crude oil in price differentials
iii. Worldwide Rig Count
Notes:
Implications for the US market
Impact of the revaluation of US dollar in the international oil price
Addendums:
World Economic Outlook: Real GDP Growth and Petroleum Consumption - Update October 2015
World Petroleum Supply Update January 2016
1) Summary - Forecast international prices of crude oil

The following table shows the midpoint of the likely forecasts for price of crude oil in terms of balance between global supply and demand.
Relationship between international crude oil spot prices
historical average spot price
spot price projection
average price forecast
$/bbl
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
WTI Spot
94.88
94.05
97.98 93.17 48.73 31.53 29.00 29.45 31.16 33.62 41.00 45.50 49.00 51.50 53.00 54.00
OPEC basket
107.46 109.45 105.87 96.29 49.50 26.50 26.95 27.64 29.65 32.36 39.00 45.00 49.00 52.00 52.50 53.50
Brent Spot
111.26 111.57 108.56 98.97 52.37 30.70 29.99 30.56 32.33 34.63 41.00 46.50 50.00 53.00 54.50 55.60
OPEC WTI
12.58
15.40
7.89
3.12
0.78 -5.02 -2.05 -1.81 -1.51 -1.26 -2.00 -0.50
0.00
0.50 -0.50 -0.50
Brent WTI
16.38
17.52
10.57
5.80
3.64 -0.83 0.99
1.11 1.17
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
1.60
Miidpoint price projection
Miidpoint price forecasts
Provisional estimate
Latest data
This table has been updated
Very important:
1. A crude oil price in the long run equilibrium is a set of values which prevents the historical low-cost production of OPEC may be displaced
by marginal production (including in that category exploitation of oil over very deep water, oil sands and unconventional oil).
2. The price forecast 2017/2022 assumes the following OPEC (ex-Indonesia) crude oil (ex-condensate) production:
2016
= 32.42 mbpd + Indonesia (0.70 mmbpd)
2017
= 33.25 mbpd + Indonesia (0.70 mmbpd), and increasing at least 0.75 mbpd from 2018 / 2022
3. On January 16, 2016 the USA and others lifted nuclear-related Iran sanctions Tentative outline of Iranian supply:
Iran (000) bpd
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 2016
Crude oil production
2,947
2,993
3,040
3,087
3,133
3,180 3,227
3,273
3,320
3,367
3,413
3,460 3,204
Disposal of oil on floating storage
207
345
289
235
183
129
83
41
126
Condensate production
520
528
536
545
552
558
565
564
560
559
560
565
551
Effective crude oil supply
3,467
3,728
3,921
3,921
3,921
3,921 3,921
3,921
3,921
3,926
3,973
4,025 3,881
Legal uncertainties delay flow of Iranian oil to Europe (Reuters)
Irans petroleum production expected to increase as sanctions are lifted (EIA)
Iran Gives Order to Boost Crude Oil Output Amid Global Glut (Bloomberg)
4. The following table summarizes the forecasted evolution of petroleum supplies and global consumption.
Balance (000 bpd)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Non-OPEC supply
51,308 51,500 52,031 53,651 56,079 57,409 56,771 56,675 56,730
56,866
56,980
57,098 57,224
OPEC supply
36,772 37,036 38,411 37,322 37,243 38,517 40,207 41,233 42,279
43,309
44,341
45,373 46,406
World supply
88,080 88,536 90,441 90,973 93,322 95,926 96,978 97,908 99,010 100,175 101,321 102,471 103,630
World consumption
-88,157 -89,102 -90,331 -91,276 -92,446 -93,791 -95,199 -96,786 -98,454 -100,035 -101,601 -103,118
#N/A
Balance
-77
-566
110
-303
876 2,135 1,779 1,121
555
139
-280
-647
#N/A
Latest data
2016 / 2017 Non-OPEC supply is the US EIA / STEO estimate
Own estimate
This table is updated
5. There has been a downward revision in the forecast prices. Probability of a new revision: downward 60.7%; stable 27.3%; upward 12.0%
6. The following table summarizes the average price forecast and its respective standard deviation:
Forecast
Lower prices
Mid-point
Upper prices
US$ per barrel
WTI
OPEC
Brent
WTI
OPEC
Brent
WTI
OPEC
Brent .
2016
27.89
24.50
27.53
33.62
32.36
34.63
38.29
35.90
38.33
2017
35.00
33.00
35.00
41.00
39.00
41.00
47.00
45.00
47.00
2018
38.80
37.80
39.60
45.50
45.00
46.50
52.20
52.20
53.40
2019
41.70
40.80
42.40
49.00
49.00
50.00
56.30
57.20
57.60
2020
43.80
43.00
44.90
51.50
52.00
53.00
59.20
61.00
61.10
2021
45.00
43.00
46.00
53.00
52.50
54.50
61.00
62.00
63.00
2022
45.80
43.40
46.80
54.00
53.50
55.60
62.20
63.60
64.40
2017 / 2021
35.00
33.00
35.00
48.00
47.50
49.00
61.00
62.00
63.00
Previous forecast
44.00
41.00
45.90
54.76
54.50
57.12
65.50
68.00
68.30
Prices range forecast
Assumption: the total production of crude oil OPEC does not exceed 33.95 m bbl/d in 2017.
The possibility that future crude oil prices come into backwardation it is estimated by 7% ~ 10%.
Note: The current strategy of OPEC seeks to maintain its current market share.
Also see:
Could Russia and OPEC really strike a deal on oil? (CNBC)
In Jan16 Russia oil production was 10.88 mbpd, up from 10.80 mbpd in December
OPEC's 2015 World Oil Outlook
Market Prices and Uncertainty Report pdf, 12 pages (EIA February 9, 2016)
Crude oil prices to remain relatively low through 2016 and 2017 (EIA)
Natural gas prices expected to rise over next two years (EIA)
Commodity Market Monthly pdf, 12 pages (IMF Jan. 15, 2016)
Commodity Markets Outlook pdf, 74 pages (WB, Jan. 26, 2016)
2) Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
20.32 20.25 19.95 19.09 17.89 18.01 17.50 18.15
14.68 16.42 17.89 19.06 19.66 18.38 17.45 17.72
18.54 19.90 19.74 18.45 17.33 18.02 18.23 17.43
21.33 23.50 21.17 20.42 21.30 21.90 23.97 24.88
20.97 19.70 20.82 19.26 19.66 19.95 19.80 21.33
15.12 15.35 14.91 13.72 14.17 13.47 15.03 14.46
14.68 17.31 17.72 17.92 20.10 21.28 23.80 22.69
29.84 25.72 28.79 31.82 29.70 31.26 33.88 33.11
27.25 27.49 28.63 27.60 26.43 27.37 26.20 22.17
24.53 26.18 27.04 25.52 26.97 28.39 29.66 28.84
33.51 28.17 28.11 30.66 30.76 31.57 28.31 30.34
36.74 36.75 40.28 38.03 40.78 44.90 45.94 53.28
54.19 52.98 49.83 56.35 59.00 64.99 65.59 62.26
62.69 69.44 70.84 70.95 74.41 73.04 63.80 58.89
60.44 63.98 63.46 67.49 74.12 72.36 79.92 85.80
105.45 112.58 125.40 133.88 133.37 116.67 104.11 76.61
47.94 49.65 59.03 69.64 64.15 71.05 69.41 75.72
81.20 84.29 73.74 75.34 76.32 76.60 75.24 81.89
102.86 109.53 100.90 96.26 97.30 86.33 85.52 86.32
106.16 103.32 94.66 82.30 87.90 94.13 94.51 89.49
92.94 92.02 94.51 95.77 104.67 106.57 106.29 100.54
100.80 102.07 102.18 105.79 103.59 96.54 93.21 84.40
47.82 54.21 59.25 59.82 51.16 42.87 45.50 46.22
27.94 29.74 31.41 32.74 33.77 34.58 35.26 35.87
38.18 38.59 39.00 39.41 39.65 39.90 40.14 40.39
41.49 41.69 41.89 42.09 42.29 42.49 42.69 42.89
43.71 43.85 43.99 44.13 44.28 44.43 44.57 44.72
45.33 45.43 45.54 45.64 45.74 45.84 45.93 46.03
46.48 46.57 46.65 46.74 46.82 46.90 46.98 47.06
47.42 47.49 47.56 47.63 47.69 47.76 47.82 47.89
42.06 43.08 43.45 43.86 44.35 44.25 44.11 43.43
28.70 29.61 29.31 30.05 30.67 28.76 27.52 25.75
Year
Jan
Feb
1993
19.03 20.09
15.03 14.78
1994
18.04 18.57
1995
1996
18.86 19.09
1997
25.13 22.18
16.72 16.06
1998
12.52 12.01
1999
2000
27.26 29.37
2001
29.59 29.61
2002
19.72 20.72
32.95 35.83
2003
34.31 34.69
2004
2005
46.84 48.15
2006
65.49 61.63
54.51 59.28
2007
92.97 95.39
2008
2009
41.71 39.09
2010
78.33 76.39
2011
89.17 88.58
100.27 102.20
2012
94.76 95.31
2013
2014
94.62 100.82
2015
47.22 50.58
31.53 29.00
2016
37.38 37.78
2017
2018
41.09 41.29
2019
43.44 43.58
2020
45.12 45.23
46.32 46.40
2021
2022
47.29 47.36
LT -Average
40.83 40.83
LT Std. Dev
26.06 26.95
Latest (preliminary) data
Interpolated data
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) Futures or estimate data
Nov
16.61
18.07
17.99
23.71
20.19
13.00
25.00
34.42
19.64
26.35
31.11
48.47
58.32
59.08
94.77
57.31
77.99
84.25
97.16
86.53
93.86
75.79
42.38
36.44
40.64
43.10
44.87
46.13
47.14
47.96
42.47
25.71
Dec
Avg.
14.52 18.45
17.16 17.19
19.03 18.44
25.23 22.11
18.33 20.61
11.35 14.45
26.10 19.26
28.44 30.30
19.39 25.95
29.46 26.12
32.13 31.12
43.15 41.44
59.41 56.49
61.96 66.02
91.69 72.32
41.12 99.57
74.47 61.65
89.15 79.40
98.56 94.87
87.86 94.11
97.63 97.91
59.29 93.26
37.19 48.69
36.98 32.94
40.89 39.33
43.30 42.19
45.02 44.22
46.23 45.68
47.22 46.77
48.02 47.66
41.28 43.61
25.69
Std. Dev
1.73
1.65
0.80
2.13
1.75
1.44
4.71
2.67
3.57
3.17
2.32
5.87
6.26
5.48
13.22
29.07
13.80
4.72
7.67
7.57
5.28
13.77
6.75
3.03
1.15
0.72
0.52
0.36
0.30
0.24
27.63

Notes:
In the short term, under the current strategy of the leading exporters of oil, prices will continue irreversibly depressed.
Market is still controlled by the buyers, vendors offering greatest differentials to maintain market shares.
Speculation about change in the behavior of economic actors, does not change market fundamentals.
Also see:
Oil slumps 7 percent ahead on expected U.S. crude build, slowdown fear (Reuters)
White House proposes $10 per barrel oil tax to fund new plan for building a 21st Century Clean Transportation System
Oman Country Analysis Brief (EIA)
Omans crude oil output grows 4% to 358m barrels in 2015 (Times of Oman)
Oman Crude Oil Prices pdf, 1 page
Canada Country Analysis Brief (EIA)
MEG Energy : oil sands plant maintenance (Reuters)
Alberta oil royalty review holds most rates steady; industry relieved (Reuters)
Blame Canada for Making the Oil Glut Worse (Bloomberg)
Oilsands Losing Money On Every Barrel, Yet Have No Choice But To Produce: Analyst
Canada Oil production
Bitumen
Heavy
(000) bpd
Light Condensate
Total
YoY
Upgraded
Heavy
(Conv.)
2013
924.4
150.9
935.9
1,011.6
455.2
3,477.9
7.12%
2014
938.1
184.6
954.1
1,215.0
461.5
3,753.2
7.92%
2015
859.7
213.7
969.7
1,363.8
436.6
3,843.5
2.41%
2016
770.8
247.9
1,001.8
1,439.2
394.1
3,853.8
0.27%
2017
653.2
286.0
1,036.8
1,412.5
334.7
3,723.2
-3.39%
Latest data
Own estimate
Bitumen
Heavy
bpd
Light Condensate
Total
YoY
Upgraded
Heavy
(Conv.)
Sep-15
746.6
206.3
731.1
1,384.2
435.2
3,503.3
-6.11%
Oct-15
885.6
214.0
937.5
1,394.7
435.1
3,867.0
-0.47%
Nov-15
902.6
221.9
1,051.5
1,413.8
436.5
4,026.4
4.03%
Dec-15
891.0
226.0
1,051.5
1,425.0
434.8
4,028.3
2.24%
Jan-16
886.5
234.7
1,093.7
1,401.7
428.8
4,045.3
1.32%
Feb-16
874.7
244.1
1,120.9
1,439.0
419.6
4,098.3
0.37%
Mar-16
845.8
250.9
1,111.0
1,452.7
410.4
4,070.7
2.14%
Latest data
Own estimate
Brazil Country Analysis Brief (EIA)
Petrobras slashes oil reserves to lowest level in 14 years (Reuters)
Oil Production
Oil Production
Brazil
YoY
Brazil
YoY
bpd
bbl
bpd
bbl
2009
1,950,364
711,882,885 7.33%
Jun-2015
2,395,976
71,879,279
6.70%
2010
2,054,668
749,953,844 5.35%
Jul-2015
2,465,967
76,444,988
8.76%
2011
2,105,399
768,470,812 2.47%
Aug-2015
2,546,889
78,953,551
9.48%
2012
2,061,226
754,408,649 -1.83%
Sep-2015
2,395,326
71,859,794
1.56%
2013
2,023,876
738,714,571 -2.08%
Oct-2015
2,406,160
74,590,949
0.55%
2014
2,254,602
822,929,599 11.40%
Nov-2015
2,379,523
71,385,690
0.92%
2015
2,434,993
888,772,370 8.00%
Dec-2015
2,503,800
77,617,800
0.26%
2016
2,521,143
922,738,200 3.82%
Jan-2016
2,545,600
78,913,600
3.08%
2017
2,583,195
942,866,300 2.18%
Feb-2016
2,542,500
73,732,500
8.31%
2018
2,626,404
958,637,500 1.67%
Mar-2016
2,528,000
78,368,000
4.76%
2019
2,651,275
967,715,400 0.95%
Apr-2016
2,508,000
75,240,000
4.75%
2020
2,657,972
972,817,700 0.53%
May-2016
2,504,400
77,636,400
3.83%
2021
2,646,740
966,060,200 -0.69%
Jun-2016
2,492,400
74,772,000
4.02%
Latest data
Own estimate
Own estimate
Links to energy news: Energy Market Recap (PIRA) - Financial Times (FT) Themes: Oil - Gulf News Energy
Links:
Spot Markets
Futures Markets
WTI Crude Oil
Crude Oil Futures Quotes (CME Group)
OPEC Daily Basket Price (News) Historical data
Oman Crude Oil DME (WSJ)
Brent Crude Oil
Brent Crude Futures (ICE)
Historical data (EIA): Data Spot Prices Data NYMEX Futures Prices
Notes:
OPEC
Algeria
Algeria's energy export volumes dropped 2.8 percent in the first nine months of 2015 (Reuters)
Algeria plans to raise gas output by 13 pct by 2019-ministry (Reuters)
Angola
W. Africa Crude-Nigerian crude under pressure in quiet trading (Reuters, Feb 9)
W. Africa Crude-Nigerian offers dip as cargoes start to clear (Reuters, Feb 5)
W. Africa Crude-Nigerian sales on hold ahead of tenders, offers steady (Reuters, Feb 4)
W. Africa Crude-Nigerian crude steady, looks set for weakness (Reuters, Feb 3)
W. Africa Crude-Nigerian steady, some Angolan re-offered (Reuters, Feb 2)
IMF Staff Completes 2015 Article IV Mission
ANGOLA Towards an Energy Strategy (IEA) pdf, 173 pages
Ecuador
Daily oil production pdf, 3 pages
Indonesia
Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing PMI
IMF Staff Completes 2015 Article IV Mission
Country Analysis Brief (EIA)
Iran
Azadegan oil field (Tehran Times)
Russia, Spain, Italy sign contracts to help exploration of Iranian oilfields
Iran boosts oil output, foreign firms eager for deals (Reuters)
IMF Executive Board Concludes 2015 Article IV Consultation
Oil and gas sector
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Total oil and gas exports (billions)
64.90
55.40
35.30
48.60
59.80
65.30
68.60
71.20
WEO Oil Price adjusted for Iranian year
103.70
83.30
50.70
52.90
57.60
61.00
62.60
63.00
Average oil export price (per barrel)
101.10
79.10
49.70
52.90
57.60
61.00
62.60
63.00
Crude oil exports (in millions of barrels/day)
1.13
1.16
1.24
1.81
2.13
2.22
2.29
2.38
Crude oil production (in millions of barrels/day)
2.85
3.09
3.11
3.70
4.00
4.20
4.30
4.40
Estimate
Projected
Country Analysis Brief (EIA) pdf, 16 pages
Iraq
Iraqs January oil exports rise slightly (Al Arabiya)
Iraq oil exports at record, unaffected by Iran's return to market (Reuters)
Iraq seeks 4.45 million tonnes of oil products for 2016 (The Economic Times)
IMF Staff-Monitored Program Staff Report pdf, 50 pages
IMF estimate
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Oil production (mbpd)
3.0
3.1
3.4
3.8
4.5
4.9
5.3
5.7
Oil exports (mbpd)
2.4
2.5
3.1
3.3
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
Iraqi oil output declining as of 2018 in Morgan Stanley's view (World Oil)
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
International Oil Companies to Receive Fiscal Entitlements Pursuant to their Production Sharing Contract
Cash-Strapped Iraqi Kurds to Start Gas Exports to Turkey in 2016 (Hellenic Shipping News)
Monthly Export Report December 2015 pdf, 4 pages
Crude oil production, refining, local consumption and export in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in 2015 pdf, 22 pages
Kuwait
Finance Min estimates oil price in next year's budget (2016-17) at USD 25 (Kuna)
KPC expected to invest USD 100 bln over five years
Libya
Attack damages oil pipeline south of Libya's Zueitina port (Reuters)
Oil refinery fires that were started by attacks on oil terminals in very early January continue (NASA)
Libya lost $68 bln in oil revenue since 2013 -NOC (Reuters)
Nigeria
Shell re-opens Nigeria's Trans Niger Pipeline shut since Nov (Reuters)
Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI
Nigeria's February crude oil exports retreat from multi-month high (Reuters)
Nigeria's January crude oil exports to reach three-month high (Reuters)
Nigeria's oil output could fall by 2017 unless investments boosted-Moody's (Reuters)
Qatar
Qatar (North Dome) shares with Iran (South Pars) the world's largest gas condensate field located in the Persian Gulf
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia Could List Production Assets in Aramco IPO (WSJ)
Saudi Aramco confirms it may sell shares in IPO (USA Today)
Emirates NBD Saudi Arabia PMI
Saudi Arabia, spare capacity analysis (Rystad)
UAE
UAE moves to quash talk of OPEC emergency meet as oil slumps (Reuters)
Emirates NBD United Arab Emirates PMI - Emirates NBD Dubai Economy Tracker
United Arab Emirates plans to increase crude oil and natural gas production (EIA)
The UAE seek to achieve a oil production target of 3.5 mbpd by 2017, from the 2.9 mbpd in the presente
Venezuela
Venezuelan crude sales to the United States declined 14 pct in Jan (Reuters)
Crude oil production of OPEC and the apparent oversupply:
In 2015 an increase of OPEC pumping by 3.0%, resulted in increased global real oversupply of crude oil by 1.10 mmbpd
Real oil oversupply for the 4Q2015 is estimated by 1,254 Kbpd (+7.5% QoQ), from 1,166 Kbpd in the 3Q2015
In Dec15 real oil oversupply is estimated by 1,535 Kbpd (+63.3% MoM), from 940 Kbpd in Nov15
The OPEC oil production for 2016 is estimated by 33.13 mbpd, and 33.94 mbpd for 2017.
OPEC Oil production -Kbpd
2014
2015
YoY
3Q15
4Q15
QoQ
Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 MoM 2016
Algeria
1,193
1,156
-3.1%
1,109
1,107
-0.2%
1,106
1,103
1,100 -0.3% 1,100
Angola
1,654
1,767
6.9%
1,760
1,750
-0.6%
1,768
1,751
1,750 -0.1% 1,725
Ecuador
557
542
-2.6%
541
549
1.4%
550
551
540 -2.0%
540
Indonesia
690
693
0.5%
694
695
0.1%
698
693
700 1.0%
700
Iran
3,117
3,152
1.1%
2,860
2,878
0.6%
2,876
2,882
2,900 0.6% 3,180
Iraq
3,110
3,504
12.7%
4,159
4,218
1.4%
4,340
4,309
4,450 3.3% 4,460
Kuwait
2,867
2,859
-0.3%
2,721
2,711
-0.4%
2,730
2,708
2,710 0.1% 2,755
Libya
480
404 -15.8%
381
402
5.6%
387
394
380 -3.6%
540
Nigeria
1,807
1,749
-3.2%
1,852
1,861
0.5%
1,866
1,789
1,800 0.6% 1,950
Qatar
709
656
-7.5%
659
672
2.0%
675
674
680 0.9%
705
Saudi Arabia
9,713
10,193
4.9%
10,259
10,127
-1.3%
10,145
10,088 10,100 0.1% 10,200
United Arab Emirates
2,794
2,987
6.9%
2,880
2,884
0.1%
2,885
2,895
2,900 0.2% 2,900
Venezuela
2,683
2,655
-1.0%
2,368
2,362
-0.3%
2,368
2,348
2,350 0.1% 2,375
Oil production (ex-condensate)
31,372
32,317
3.0%
32,243
32,216
-0.1%
32,394
32,185 32,360 0.5% 33,130
Call for OPEC oil
29,181
29,026
-0.5%
29,443
29,515
3.0%
29,738
29,558 29,364 -0.7% 30,681
Oversupply (secondary source)
2,192
3,291
50.1%
2,800
2,701 -15.1%
2,656
2,627
2,996 14.1% 2,449
OPEC direct communication
31,372
32,317
3.0%
32,699
32,859
1.4%
32,768
33,183 33,158 -0.1% 33,130
Oversupply (direct communication)
2,192
3,291
50.1%
3,256
3,344 -10.8%
3,030
3,625
3,794 4.7% 2,449
Real oversupply (own estimate)
102
1,201 1,079%
1,166
1,254
7.5%
940
1,535
1,705 11.0%
359
Data based on direct communication to OPEC
Data based on secondary sources Latest data
Own preliminary estimate
Reference: Crude oil production forecast (excluding condensate), annual average
Call for OPEC = World Consumption less (Non-OPEC supply + Non-Crude Oil OPEC supply), EIA / STEO data
This table will be updated on February 10, 2016
Also see:
Jan16 Reuters survey OPEC supply rises by 290,000 bpd to 32.60 million bpd
OPEC production estimates (PLATTS)
2017
1,073
1,673
535
695
3,482
4,486
2,854
787
2,073
735
10,273
2,927
2,351
33,943
31,880
2,063
33,943
2,063
-26
Dollar stronger
The federal funds rate Fed was increased by 25 bps in December 2015, and is expected continue to increase in 2016 in another 100 bps.
As long-term, it is estimated that the Fed placed the federal funds rate at 3.5%, consistent with an inflation target of 2%.
Speech by Vice Chairman Fischer on recent monetary policy (Fed)
The effect of an increase in real interest rate is a reduction of interest of investors for commodities and other equity.
Ocean Freight Rates

Baltic index bottoms out at record low (Reuters)
Post-sanctions Iran, a driving force in global maritime transport (Tehran Times)
Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) (last update: February 5, 2016)
Tanker Update, Janaury 2016
The U.S. exports of crude oil may now be made as NLR (no license required) (BIS)
ICE Futures Europe
Brent / WTI price differentials (ICE)

Apr16
Jun16
Brent (1) WTI (2) Diff. Brent WTI Diff.
Dec16
Brent WTI Diff.
Weekly Average
Dec 24, 2015
38.27
38.66 -0.39 39.98 39.99 -0.01 43.87 42.93 0.94
Dec 31, 2015
38.32
39.00 -0.68 40.04 40.42 -0.39 44.03 43.40 0.63
Jan 8, 2016
36.34
36.92 -0.58 38.15 38.74 -0.60 42.36 42.11 0.25
Jan 15, 2016
31.44
32.64 -1.20 33.13 34.52 -1.39 37.20 37.88 -0.68
Jan 22, 2016
29.99
31.13 -1.14 31.42 33.11 -1.68 35.03 36.23 -1.20
Jan 29, 2016
33.72
33.69 0.03 35.30 36.14 -0.83 39.08 39.64 -0.56
Feb 5, 2016
34.10
32.99 1.12 35.64 35.95 -0.32 39.68 40.15 -0.46
Daily closing price
Feb 5, 2016
34.06
32.72 1.34 35.54 35.94 -0.40 39.66 40.34 -0.68
Feb 8, 2016
32.88
31.64 1.24 34.44 34.92 -0.48 38.77 39.53 -0.76
Feb 9, 2016
30.81
30.20 0.61 32.24 33.30 -1.06 36.40 37.60 -1.20
Latest data Last Trade Date (Apr16): (1) Feb. 29, 2016 (2) Mar. 18, 2016
Important: Changing contract expiration dates will affect crude oil futures comparisons (EIA)
Note this table are made with quotes from ICE.
U.S. Crude oil export ban lifted (CME Group) - Effect of removing U.S. crude export restrictions (EIA)
High oil inventories

High levels of inventory, on the operational requirements, to roll over in the market could have an adverse impact on prices
High inventories help push crude oil prices to lowest levels in 13 years (EIA)
New legislation affects U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (EIA)
The Bipartisan Budget Act authorizes the sale of 58 million barrels of SPR oil between FY 2018-25
From 2018 fiscal year to 2021FY = 5.0 mbbl/year; 2022FY = 8.0 mbbl; from 2023FY to 2025FY = 10 mbbl/year
Iranian Floating Oil Storage (Windward)
On Jan 30, 2016 Iranian oil on floating storage was 48,705 Kbbl (+1,727 Kbbl, as Nancy joins the FS fleet)
On Jan 27 ~ 29, 2016 oil on floating storage was 46,978 Kbbl (-818 Kbbl, as the Sinopa heads to China with 917,341 barrels)
On Jan 18 ~ 26, 2016 oil on floating storage was 47,796 Kbbl (+1,848 Kbbl)
On Jan 14 ~ 17, 2016 oil on floating storage was 45,948 Kbbl (-1,053 Kbbl)
On Jan 3 ~ 13, 2016 oil on floating storage was 47,001 Kbbl (+1,963 Kbbl)
On Dec. 7, 2015 ~ Jan. 2, 2016 oil on floating storage was 45,038 Kbbl (+1,814 Kbbl)
On Nov. 19 ~ Dec. 6 , 2015 oil on floating storage was 43,224 Kbbl (-1,840 Kbbl)
Future market in a normal contango

A reversal of the "normal contango" futures market to "normal backwardation" could cause a strong impact on prices.
i. World Petroleum Consumption

See addendum on the last page of this working paper
ii. World Petroleum Supply

Non-OPEC supply will decrease by 0.64 mbpd in 2016 and 0.10 mbpd in 2017, from +1.33 mbpd n 2015
In the current price environment, only OPEC supply has an annual growth of around 1.03 mmbpd from 2017.
Summary estimate of global petroleum supply

Total Supply (000 bpd)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Liquids
Crude oil + Condensate
74,637 74,740 76,136 76,210 77,958 80,122 80,499 80,793 81,232 81,716 82,178
NGL
8,864 9,066 9,437 9,662 10,132 10,536 11,095 11,663 12,257 12,861 13,466
Other liquids
2,216 2,325 2,440 2,603 2,736 2,810 2,888 2,949 3,009
3,077
3,148
Refinery processing gains
2,363 2,405 2,429 2,498 2,496 2,459 2,495 2,502 2,511
2,520
2,529
World (*)
88,080 88,536 90,441 90,973 93,322 95,926 96,978 97,908 99,010 100,175 101,321
Annual Change
2,357
456 1,906
531 2,349 2,604 1,052
929 1,102
1,165
1,147
Previous estimate (Sep15)
88,117 88,598 90,452 91,028 93,253 96,117 98,194 98,369 99,364 100,113 100,858
Difference
-37
-62
-10
-55
69
-191 -1,216
-461
-355
62
464
(*) which the non-OPEC supply 51,308 51,500 52,031 53,651 56,079 57,409 56,771 56,675 56,730 56,866 56,980
Annual Change
1,395
192
531 1,620 2,429 1,330
-638
-96
56
136
114
Latest data
2016 / 2017 : US EIA / STEO estimate, except OPEC supply is our own estimate.
Own estimate
Full data by country at the end of this working paper
OPEC Supply (000 bpd)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Algeria .
1,881 1,863 1,875 1,763 1,721 1,687 1,702 1,686 1,664 1,641 1,618
Angola .
1,919 1,765 1,797 1,814 1,756 1,818 1,803 1,748 1,704 1,665 1,625
Ecuador .
489
499
503
526
556
545
540
534
531
527
524
Indonesia .
1,042 1,025
985
926
917
914
932
921
906
899
895
Iran .
4,243 4,215 3,521 3,194 3,380 3,497 3,939 4,289 4,595 4,870 5,149
Iraq .
2,398 2,623 2,979 3,050 3,365 3,939 4,368 4,509 4,647 4,782 4,917
Kuwait .
2,449 2,680 2,784 2,799 2,767 2,930 2,985 3,074 3,187 3,308 3,427
Libya .
1,785
506 1,482
986
516
460
633
856 1,071 1,279 1,488
Nigeria .
2,459 2,555 2,525 2,371 2,428 2,299 2,451 2,497 2,537 2,568 2,601
Qatar .
1,787 1,936 2,033 2,067 2,055 2,048 2,140 2,228 2,324 2,415 2,507
Saudi Arabia .
10,907 11,469 11,842 11,698 11,624 12,080 12,305 12,427 12,580 12,744 12,905
United Arab Emirates .
2,815 3,215 3,401 3,444 3,474 3,641 3,724 3,803 3,903 4,011 4,116
Venezuela .
2,599 2,684 2,685 2,685 2,685 2,658 2,686 2,660 2,631 2,600 2,569
OPEC Total
36,772 37,036 38,411 37,322 37,243 38,517 40,207 41,233 42,279 43,309 44,341
Annual Change
962
264 1,375 -1,088
-79 1,274 1,690 1,026 1,046 1,030 1,032
Pre. estimate, ex Indonesia
35,740 36,027 37,389 36,418 36,348 37,717 39,730 39,803 40,663 41,491 42,316
Pre. estimate , Indonesia
1,042 1,022
989
939
911
944 1,001
987
988
987
985
Difference
-10
-14
32
-35
-16
-144
-524
443
628
831 1,040
Latest data
Own estimate
These tables are updated
1/4
2021
2022
82,639 83,108
14,073 14,684
3,219
3,290
2,538
2,547
102,471 103,630
1,150
1,159
101,725
#N/A
745
#N/A
57,098 57,224
118
126
2021
2022
1,593 1,570
1,584 1,543
520
517
890
885
5,433 5,717
5,053 5,188
3,545 3,663
1,700 1,910
2,634 2,667
2,598 2,690
13,064 13,223
4,221 4,325
2,538 2,507
45,373 46,406
1,032 1,033
43,138
#N/A
984
#N/A
1,252
#N/A
Links to data sources:

OECD / International Energy Agency (IEA)
Oil Market Report (January 19, 2016)
The IEA estimate excess oil supply in 2015 by +1.838 MMbpd, up from +1.645 MMbpd calculated in its Dec15 report.
Although EIA do not forecast OPEC oil production global oil supply could exceed demand by +1.5 mb/d in the first half of 2016
World oil demand for 2016 was reduced by -0.102 MMbpd from its previous est., to 95.677 Mmbpd (+1.208 MMbpd from 2015).
Exceptionally mild temperatures in the first part of winter in Japan, Europe and the US, along with weak economic growth in China,
Brazil, Russia and other commodity-dependent economies, reduced the growth in world oil demand in the 4Q2015 just +1.034
Mmbpd YoY, from +2.157 MMbpd YoY in 3Q2015.
Monthly Global Indicator Refining Margins (spreadsheet file)
Average crude oil import costs in OECD (Monthly Oil Price Statistics) pdf, 9 pages
World Energy Outlook 2015 (November 10, 2015)
Summary pdf, 12 pages
Press Release - Presentation to the Press pdf, 15 pages - Factsheets pdf, 3 pages
Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015
Comparison of global biofuels production and oil prices 2007-20 (IEA)
OPEC
Monthly Oil Market Report January 2016 pdf, 106 pages (January 18, 2016)
For 1Q2016 global consumption is estimated at 93.30 mbpd, from 93.95 mpd in the 4Q2015 and 92.01 mbpd in the 1Q2015
Non-OPEC supply is estimated at 56.46 mbpd in the 1Q2016, from 56.78 mbpd in the 4Q2015 and 57.05 mbpd in the 1Q2015
mbpd
Change mbpd
OPEC Jan16 estimate
2014
2015
2016
2015
2016
World Consumption
91.38
92.92
94.17
1.54
1.25
OECD
45.73
46.21
46.38
0.48
0.17
Non-OECD
45.65
46.71
47.79
1.06
1.08
Non-OPEC Supply
55.64
56.87
56.21
1.22
-0.66
OECD
24.19
25.06
24.55
0.87
-0.51
Non-OPEC/Non-OECD
29.29
29.62
29.46
0.33
-0.16
Processing gains
2.16
2.19
2.20
0.02
0.01
OPEC non-Crude Oil
6.00
6.15
6.32
0.15
0.17
Call for OPEC oil
29.74
29.90
31.64
0.17
1.74
OPEC oil production
30.77
31.85
32.42
1.08
0.57
Balance
1.03
1.94
0.78
0.91
-1.17
Own estimate
OPEC's 2015 World Oil Outlook (WOO) pdf, 406 pages (December 23, 2015)
Link to WOO Data Download
Annual Statistical Bulletin, 2015 pdf, 120 pages
Oil & Gas data

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Full report pdf, 57 pages (February 9, 2015)
The US EIA has estimated growth in demand for crude oil and other liquids to 1.46 mbpd in 2017
Oil production outside OPEC projected for 2017 looks like something optimistic, given the current context of international prices.
For December 2016 EIA estimates that OPEC oil production will be higher by 780.5 Kbpd from December 2015 and at the end of 2017
estimates a further growth of 483.2 Kbpd.
With these assumptions, the global oversupply of crude oil will be gone in 2017
The following is a summary
February 2016 STEO
Annual change
Petroleum and Other Liquids
Consumption (mbpd)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
OECD
46.331 45.928 45.997 45.728 46.326 46.526 46.864
-0.402 0.069 -0.269 0.598 0.200 0.338
Non-OECD
42.771 44.454 45.243 46.691 47.455 48.496 49.618
1.683 0.789 1.448 0.763 1.042 1.122
Total World Consumption
89.102 90.382 91.241 92.420 93.781 95.022 96.482
1.281 0.858 1.179 1.361 1.242 1.460
previous monthly estimate
89.102 90.382 91.241 92.420 93.780 95.194 96.611
estimate change
0.000 -0.000 0.000 -0.000 0.001 -0.171 -0.129
February 2016 STEO
Annual change
Supply (mbpd)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
OECD .
21.644 22.532 23.722 25.754 26.689 26.183 26.096
0.889 1.189 2.032 0.935 -0.506 -0.086
Non-OECD .
66.894 67.943 67.209 67.541 68.927 69.882 70.665
1.049 -0.734 0.332 1.387 0.954 0.783
Total World Supply .
88.538 90.476 90.931 93.294 95.616 96.064 96.761
1.937 0.455 2.364 2.322 0.448 0.697
previous monthly estimate
88.538 90.443 90.973 93.323 95.705 95.926 96.679
estimate change
0.000 0.033 -0.042 -0.029 -0.089 0.138 0.082
February 2016 STEO
Annual change
Balance (mbpd)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
World Consumption
89.102 90.382 91.241 92.420 93.781 95.022 96.482
1.281 0.858 1.179 1.361 1.242 1.460
Non-OPEC supply
51.488 52.079 53.597 56.051 57.432 56.869 56.696
0.544 1.618 2.430 1.329 -0.640 -0.098
OPEC other liquids supply (*)
6.239 6.523 6.487 6.469 6.586 6.900 7.199
0.298 -0.061 -0.007 0.184 0.349 0.288
Call for OPEC crude oil
31.374 31.780 31.157 29.899 29.763 31.254 32.587
0.406 -0.624 -1.257 -0.136 1.491 1.333
OPEC crude oil production (*)
30.811 31.873 30.846 30.774 31.598 32.295 32.866
1.063 -1.027 -0.072 0.824 0.697 0.570
Inventory change
-0.564 0.093 -0.310 0.875 1.835 1.042 0.279
(*) including Indonesia
The Availability and Price of Petroleum and Petroleum Products Produced in Countries Other Than Iran
Full report pdf, 7 pages
International Energy Outlook 2015 (to be released on March 2016)
Assumption to the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) pdf, 233 pages
Oil and Gas Supply Module pdf, 19 pages
U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas 2014 Proved Reserves pdf, 49 pages
In 2014, the U.S. proved reserves of crude oil and lease condensate increased to 39.9 billion barrels (+9.3%)
International Energy Statistics (database)
Exxon Mobil - The Outlook for Energy

A view to 2040 pdf, 80 pages - Charts
Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI)

BP
Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 - 2016 edition will be released on February 10, 2016
Energy Outlook
Also see:
LNG-Prices sink on Argentina tender result and new supply (Reuters)
Argentina's YPF paid a price in the mid-$5 per mmBtu range for its March delivery into Bahia Blanca in a recent tender
LNG prices likely to remain subdued next year (Commodity Online)
Spot LNG Price Statistics (METI)
Rystad Energy
Nearly 230 BUSD earmarked for pre-development projects deferred since H2 2014, delaying over 3 MMboe/d of supply
Global liquids cost curve (October 2015) - Oil Production Cost by Country (November 2015) (Rystad Energy)
3) US Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures

In 2015, the implicit price index for personal consumption expenditures grew 0.29%, compounded by an increase in the cost of services (+ 1.89%)
and a fall in prices of goods (-2.89%).
Excluding food (+ 1.08%) and energy (-17.78%), the core price index rose 1.32%.
On December 2015, the PCE price index was +0.58% YoY, from a revised +0.44% YoY in Nov15 (previous estimate+0.39% YoY).
The core PCE price index was up to 1.41% YoY, from +1.38% YoY in Nov15:
Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
YoY
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
PCE
0.16% 0.26% 0.28% 0.16%
0.25% 0.34% 0.32% 0.32% 0.18% 0.23% 0.44% 0.58%
Goods
-3.50% -3.14% -2.83% -3.23% -2.75% -2.73% -2.68% -2.74% -3.21% -3.11% -2.59% -2.16%
Durable goods
-2.66% -2.26% -2.27% -2.17% -1.96% -2.06% -2.14% -2.28% -1.86% -2.02% -1.77% -1.41%
Nondurable goods
-3.93% -3.59% -3.11% -3.76% -3.13% -3.04% -2.93% -2.95% -3.86% -3.64% -2.98% -2.53%
Services
2.01% 1.98%
1.85% 1.87%
1.76% 1.88% 1.82% 1.85% 1.88% 1.89% 1.94% 1.91%
PCE ex- food and energy
1.29% 1.34% 1.35% 1.32%
1.28% 1.30% 1.26% 1.29% 1.35% 1.29% 1.38% 1.41%
MoM at annual rate
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15
PCE
-5.46% 2.02% 2.67% 0.78%
3.72% 2.80% 1.16% -0.23% -0.68% 0.75% 0.83% -1.13%
Goods
-17.79% 3.77%
3.03% -1.77%
7.84% 2.41% 0.21% -4.40% -5.96% -0.82% -3.91% -5.98%
Durable goods
-1.95% 2.08% -1.52% 1.86% -1.91% -2.63% -2.99% -4.06% 3.25% -3.14% -3.95% -1.59%
Nondurable goods
-24.66% 4.60%
5.42% -3.64% 13.21% 5.00% 1.83% -4.56% -10.26% 0.40% -3.89% -8.21%
Services
1.10% 1.20%
2.49% 2.03%
1.78% 2.99% 1.63% 1.85% 1.97% 1.51% 3.17% 1.28%
PCE ex- food and energy
0.61% 1.58% 2.45% 1.90%
1.45% 1.79% 1.07% 0.99% 2.13% 0.52% 1.94% 0.52%
Advance Estimate
This table has been updated on February 1, 2016
Also see: Warmer weather, lower energy prices are reducing home heating expenditures (EIA)
The complete series used to deflate the WTI oil prices:
US Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures SA 2009=100
Y/Y
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Avg.
72.52 72.63 72.78 72.98 73.20 73.23 73.35 73.47 73.55 73.78 73.92 73.93 73.28
2.50%
1993
1994
73.96 74.13 74.33 74.42 74.53 74.71 74.94 75.11 75.20 75.32 75.47 75.52 74.80
2.08%
1995
75.67 75.80 75.93 76.13 76.24 76.31 76.40 76.57 76.62 76.82 76.82 76.97 76.36
2.08%
77.14 77.26 77.49 77.72 77.85 77.85 78.02 78.10 78.31 78.54 78.69 78.78 77.98
2.13%
1996
78.88 79.05 79.13 79.20 79.17 79.27 79.31 79.38 79.56 79.66 79.67 79.66 79.33
1.73%
1997
79.69 79.64 79.65 79.75 79.86 79.79 79.99 80.10 80.04 80.22 80.22 80.30 79.94
0.77%
1998
1999
80.45 80.43 80.48 80.86 80.89 80.91 81.12 81.26 81.55 81.68 81.75 81.95 81.11
1.47%
2000
82.19 82.45 82.80 82.72 82.78 83.06 83.26 83.24 83.60 83.72 83.83 83.94 83.13
2.49%
2001
84.31 84.42 84.43 84.58 84.81 84.97 84.95 84.95 84.67 84.98 84.92 84.83 84.74
1.93%
84.89 85.04 85.27 85.64 85.71 85.82 86.00 86.16 86.31 86.47 86.56 86.63 85.87
1.34%
2002
86.85 87.21 87.42 87.27 87.17 87.27 87.50 87.78 88.03 88.00 88.09 88.29 87.57
1.98%
2003
88.61 88.82 88.97 89.12 89.43 89.72 89.83 89.91 90.08 90.43 90.73 90.79 89.70
2.43%
2004
2005
90.85 91.12 91.39 91.66 91.74 91.79 92.18 92.56 93.46 93.59 93.38 93.40 92.26
2.85%
2006
93.81 93.85 94.01 94.40 94.61 94.83 95.17 95.47 95.23 94.98 95.00 95.39 94.73
2.68%
95.69 96.01 96.34 96.53 96.80 97.00 97.14 97.23 97.60 97.88 98.37 98.64 97.10
2.50%
2007
98.89 99.11 99.42 99.65 100.09 100.79 101.22 101.14 101.24 100.68 99.55 99.01 100.06
3.05%
2008
99.07 99.28 99.19 99.34 99.47 100.07 100.02 100.29 100.45 100.76 101.00 101.05 100.00 -0.07%
2009
2010
101.23 101.25 101.36 101.35 101.39 101.44 101.56 101.71 101.80 102.04 102.21 102.45 101.65
1.65%
2011
102.68 102.96 103.35 103.80 104.14 104.18 104.38 104.61 104.78 104.85 105.00 105.02 104.15
2.46%
2012
105.32 105.56 105.80 105.94 105.87 105.84 105.88 106.24 106.57 106.88 106.77 106.76 106.12
1.89%
106.92 107.33 107.24 107.13 107.24 107.48 107.58 107.74 107.86 108.00 108.07 108.25 107.57
1.37%
2013
108.42 108.49 108.70 108.90 109.14 109.29 109.43 109.40 109.49 109.51 109.35 109.10 109.10
1.42%
2014
108.59 108.77 109.01 109.08 109.41 109.67 109.77 109.75 109.69 109.76 109.83 109.73 109.42
0.29%
2015
2016
109.69 109.64 109.57 109.91 110.01 110.14 110.23 110.27 110.25 110.31 110.39 110.37 110.06
0.59%
2017
110.34 110.30 110.25 110.47 110.62 110.78 110.91 110.99 111.03 111.09 111.18 111.22 110.76
0.64%
111.23 111.23 111.22 111.38 111.57 111.76 111.94 112.09 112.19 112.29 112.42 112.51 111.82
0.95%
2018
112.57 112.61 112.62 112.75 112.93 113.14 113.34 113.53 113.67 113.80 113.94 114.06 113.25
1.28%
2019
114.15 114.21 114.25 114.36 114.53 114.73 114.95 115.15 115.33 115.49 115.64 115.78 114.88
1.44%
2020
2021
115.90 115.99 116.06 116.16 116.31 116.51 116.73 116.95 117.15 117.33 117.51 117.67 116.69
1.57%
2022
117.82 117.93 118.02 118.13 118.27 118.46 118.68 118.91 119.14 119.35 119.54 119.73 118.66
1.69%
Latest data
Own estimate
Links: BEA - Personal Income and Outlays
Also see: U.S. Federal Open Market Committee - Federal Funds Rate (Scribd)
Notes:
The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased by 0.2% MoM in December 2015, seasonally adjusted.
On an unadjusted basis the PPI for final demand moved down 1.0% YoY
In Dec15 prices by final demand for personal consumption fell 0.64% YoY (-0.36% MoM), from a fall of 0.45% YoY (+0.46% MoM) in Nov'15
Excluding energy and food final demand for personal consumption fell 0.10% MoM (+0.79% YoY)
In 2015 PPI for final demand fell by 0.89% sa (-0.86% nsa), followed by -0.56% in 2016, compared to growth of +1.63% in 2014.
Producer Price Index Commodities Final demand Nov. 2009 = 100
Goods, NSA
PPI
Total, SA
Total, NSA
Services
Construction
Total
Foods
Energy
Rest
Dec-12 weight
99.999
34.517
5.582
6.790
22.145
63.443
2.039
Nov09
Dec-13 weight
MoM
100.001 YoY
34.397 YoY 5.490 YoY
6.782 YoY
22.125 YoY
63.520 YoY 2.084 YoY
=100
Dec-14 weight
99.999
34.673
5.797
6.309
22.567
63.306
2.020
Jan-15
110.0 -0.72%
109.7
0.00% 109.0 -3.63% 120.6 2.55% 95.7 -22.32% 110.1
0.73% 109.8 2.04% 112.0 2.00%
Feb-15
109.6 -0.36%
109.5
-0.54% 108.9 -4.05% 118.8 0.59% 96.8 -22.37% 110.0
0.55% 109.5 1.20% 112.1 2.00%
Mar-15
109.6 0.00%
109.8
-0.90% 109.2 -4.46% 118.1 -1.58% 99.7 -22.05% 109.9
0.64% 109.8 0.92% 112.1 1.91%
Apr-15
109.5 -0.09%
109.8
-1.08% 108.9 -5.47% 117.5 -4.47% 98.6 -24.04% 109.8
0.37% 110.0 1.20% 112.1 1.63%
May-15
110.1 0.55%
110.2
-0.81% 110.4 -4.00% 118.9 -3.02% 104.8 -19.01% 109.9
0.55% 109.7 0.83% 112.2 1.72%
Jun-15
110.5 0.36%
110.6
-0.54% 111.1 -3.73% 119.8 -2.68% 106.9 -18.21% 110.2
0.73% 110.0 1.10% 112.2 1.63%
Jul-15
110.6 0.09%
110.8
-0.72% 110.9 -3.82% 119.0 -3.25% 106.6 -17.94% 110.2
0.55% 110.4 0.82% 112.8 1.81%
Aug-15
110.3 -0.27%
110.5
-0.99% 110.1 -4.26% 119.3 -2.61% 103.2 -19.94% 109.9
0.37% 110.3 0.73% 112.9 1.80%
Sep-15
109.9 -0.36%
109.9
-1.08% 108.7 -5.15% 118.6 -2.95% 96.9 -23.70% 109.7
0.18% 110.2 1.01% 112.9 1.80%
Oct-15
109.5 -0.36%
109.6
-1.62% 108.1 -4.84% 117.2 -4.25% 93.9 -21.49% 109.9 -0.09% 110.1 0.09% 114.0 2.33%
Nov-15
109.8 0.27%
109.6
-1.08% 107.7 -4.27% 117.5 -3.92% 92.3 -18.96% 109.7 -0.09% 110.3 0.55% 113.7 2.06%
Dec-15
109.6 -0.18%
109.2
-1.00% 106.8 -3.70% 115.7 -5.24% 88.5 -16.19% 109.8
0.00% 110.2 0.36% 113.6 1.79%
Last data
Own estimate
i. Evolution of the consumer price index

In December 2015, CPI-U declined 0.11% MoM (+0.73% YoY), from +0.03% MoM (+0.50% YoY) in Nov15
Educ. &
Medical
All
Apparel
Food & bev.
Other
Housing
Recreation Transport
CPI, NSA,
Comm
care
YoY
SA0
SAA
SAE
SAF
SAG
SAH
SAM
SAR
SAT
Jan-15
-0.09%
-1.41%
0.44%
3.06%
1.83%
2.27%
2.64%
0.01%
-10.58%
Feb-15
-0.03%
-0.83%
0.38%
2.84%
1.46%
2.21%
2.31%
-0.05%
-9.66%
Mar-15
-0.07%
-0.50%
0.32%
2.27%
1.40%
1.93%
2.46%
0.06%
-8.73%
Apr-15
-0.20%
-0.80%
0.31%
1.93%
1.28%
2.20%
2.90%
0.00%
-9.79%
May-15
-0.04%
-1.46%
0.11%
1.56%
1.39%
1.90%
2.84%
0.15%
-7.61%
Jun-15
0.12%
-1.84%
0.11%
1.74%
1.73%
2.00%
2.51%
0.31%
-6.95%
Jul-15
0.17%
-1.64%
0.07%
1.60%
1.68%
1.97%
2.49%
0.45%
-6.60%
Aug-15
0.20%
-0.94%
0.11%
1.52%
1.63%
2.02%
2.47%
0.67%
-6.83%
Sep-15
-0.04%
-1.37%
0.45%
1.57%
1.78%
2.12%
2.45%
0.64%
-8.68%
Oct-15
0.17%
-1.91%
0.97%
1.55%
1.86%
2.12%
2.98%
0.61%
-7.89%
Nov-15
0.50%
-1.54%
1.32%
1.21%
2.08%
2.14%
2.95%
0.64%
-6.03%
Dec-15
0.73%
-0.93%
1.44%
0.77%
1.86%
2.07%
2.58%
0.65%
-4.13%
Latest data
The core inflation was up 2.10% YoY (+0.13% MoM), from +2.02% YoY (+0.18% MoM) in Nov15:
All items less food Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2014
2015
2016
and energy
2015 2015 2015
2015 2015
2015 2015
2015 2015 2015
2015 2015
SA
239.87 240.25 240.79 241.41 241.76 242.19 242.51 242.69 243.21 243.70 244.14 244.45
237.90 242.25 246.84
MoM
0.18% 0.16% 0.23% 0.26% 0.15% 0.18% 0.13% 0.07% 0.21% 0.20% 0.18% 0.13%
1.75% 1.83% 1.89%
NSA
239.25 240.08 241.07 241.80 242.12 242.35 242.44 242.65 243.36 243.99 244.08 243.78
237.90 242.25 246.84
YoY
1.65% 1.70% 1.75% 1.81% 1.72% 1.76% 1.80% 1.83% 1.89% 1.91% 2.02% 2.10%
1.75% 1.83% 1.90%
Latest data
Own estimate
Link: BLS - CPI
4) WTI Spot Price FOB at Constant (2009) Dollars

Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB at Constant (2009) Dollars per Barrel
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
27.66 27.92 27.75 27.25 26.07 24.39 24.51 23.79 24.60
19.94 19.75 22.06 24.00 25.51 26.23 24.47 23.21 23.53
24.50 24.42 26.14 25.89 24.18 22.68 23.53 23.79 22.69
24.71 27.53 30.24 27.19 26.23 27.30 28.04 30.61 31.68
28.06 26.50 24.87 26.30 24.30 24.79 25.13 24.89 26.78
20.17 18.98 19.25 18.67 17.19 17.72 16.82 18.78 18.03
14.93 18.24 21.41 21.91 22.15 24.78 26.19 29.19 27.78
35.62 36.04 31.09 34.78 38.31 35.67 37.55 40.52 39.55
35.07 32.28 32.50 33.76 32.48 31.11 32.22 30.94 26.09
24.37 28.77 30.57 31.55 29.74 31.36 32.95 34.37 33.35
41.09 38.33 32.28 32.25 35.13 35.15 35.97 32.16 34.48
39.06 41.30 41.24 45.04 42.39 45.39 49.94 51.00 58.92
52.84 59.29 57.80 54.32 61.39 64.00 70.21 70.18 66.52
65.67 66.69 73.56 74.88 74.82 78.19 76.51 66.99 62.00
61.75 62.74 66.28 65.56 69.58 76.30 74.43 81.88 87.66
96.25 106.07 112.97 125.29 132.84 131.77 115.36 102.84 76.09
39.37 48.33 49.98 59.34 69.59 64.14 70.85 69.10 75.15
75.45 80.11 83.17 72.73 74.27 75.14 75.31 73.91 80.25
86.03 99.52 105.52 96.89 92.40 93.22 82.52 81.62 82.33
96.82 100.34 97.53 89.41 77.76 83.02 88.60 88.68 83.73
88.80 86.66 85.90 88.13 89.11 97.29 98.92 98.55 93.09
92.93 92.73 93.72 93.62 96.79 94.67 88.24 85.13 77.07
46.50 43.87 49.70 54.15 54.55 46.61 39.06 41.48 42.11
26.45 25.50 27.06 28.55 29.73 30.64 31.36 31.98 32.52
34.25 34.63 34.93 35.25 35.58 35.75 35.95 36.16 36.36
37.12 37.30 37.43 37.55 37.66 37.78 37.91 38.05 38.20
38.70 38.81 38.89 38.95 39.01 39.06 39.13 39.21 39.30
39.60 39.67 39.73 39.76 39.78 39.79 39.80 39.83 39.86
40.00 40.05 40.09 40.11 40.12 40.11 40.10 40.10 40.11
40.16 40.18 40.21 40.21 40.21 40.19 40.16 40.14 40.13
43.15 44.29 45.29 45.66 45.91 46.32 46.39 46.25 45.59
23.29 25.11 25.96 25.62 26.46 27.06 25.12 23.82 22.18
Year
Jan
Nov
1993
26.24
22.47
20.32
23.94
1994
23.84
23.42
1995
1996
24.45
30.13
1997
31.86
25.34
20.98
16.21
1998
15.56
30.58
1999
2000
33.17
41.06
2001
35.10
23.13
2002
23.23
30.44
37.94
35.32
2003
38.72
53.42
2004
2005
51.56
62.45
2006
69.81
62.19
56.97
96.34
2007
94.01
57.57
2008
2009
42.10
77.22
2010
77.38
82.43
2011
86.84
92.54
95.20
81.05
2012
88.63
86.85
2013
2014
87.27
69.31
2015
43.48
38.59
28.74
33.01
2016
33.88
36.55
2017
2018
36.94
38.34
2019
38.59
39.38
2020
39.53
39.89
39.96
40.12
2021
40.14
40.12
2022
LT Average
43.47
44.50
LT Std. Dev
22.51
22.23
Latest (preliminary) data
Own estimate, based on futures Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) in constant dollars (2009 prices, deflated by PCE price index)
Summary
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
1993-99
23.32 22.85 23.33 24.53 24.46 23.66 23.98 24.10 24.89 25.01 24.58
1986-92
32.26 28.93 28.00 28.84 29.45 28.55 28.54 30.66 31.75 32.42 31.04
2000-04
33.63 35.04 35.34 33.54 35.47 35.61 35.74 37.73 37.80 38.48 36.67
2015-22
37.66 37.85 37.50 38.50 39.32 39.58 38.74 37.93 38.37 38.57 38.25
LT Average
43.47 43.15 44.29 45.29 45.66 45.91 46.32 46.39 46.25 45.59 44.50
2005-06
60.68 59.25 62.99 65.68 64.60 68.10 71.10 73.36 68.59 64.26 62.32
2007-14
78.55 79.67 84.56 86.88 86.37 87.79 89.44 86.78 85.21 81.92 80.41
Summary ordered from periods of low prices in constant currency, to periods of high prices.
Dec
Avg.
19.64 25.19
22.72 22.97
24.72 24.15
32.03 28.34
23.01 25.99
14.13 18.08
31.85 23.71
33.88 36.44
22.86 30.63
34.01 30.39
36.39 35.54
47.53 46.16
63.61 61.18
64.95 69.69
92.96 74.37
41.53 99.38
73.70 61.57
87.02 78.10
93.85 91.11
82.30 88.70
90.19 91.01
54.34 85.49
33.89 44.50
33.51 29.92
36.77 35.50
38.48 37.73
39.47 39.04
39.93 39.76
40.13 40.08
40.11 40.16
43.19 45.53
22.24
Std. Dev
2.48
2.11
1.08
2.57
2.27
1.84
5.65
3.05
4.26
3.53
2.69
6.21
6.26
5.70
12.89
28.62
13.40
4.45
7.46
7.38
4.75
12.68
6.20
2.68
0.93
0.49
0.27
0.12
0.05
0.04
24.09
Dec
Avg. Std Dev
24.02 24.06
4.07
29.77 30.02
5.39
34.93 35.83
7.02
37.79 38.34
5.21
43.19 45.53
24.09
64.28 65.43
7.29
76.99 83.72
17.21
Notes:
In constant dollars, the average futures price for WTI for the period 2015/2022 is 7.19 $/bbl below the long term average
The correspondence between the prices of futures markets and the long-term average, has among its foundations:
abundance of unconventional hydrocarbon resources (World Shale Resource Assessments),
abundance of conventional oil and gas reserves in OPEC,
impact of technology on the feasibility of developing unconventional resources and exploitation in deep water,
impact of technology on saving exploration and development costs,
continuous development of new sources of renewable energy,
impact of technology on energy savings, especially related to transportation, and
weak global demand, fears about the Chinese economy
Markit Global Sector PMI
JPMorgan Global Composite PMI
JPMorgan - January 2016 Global Manufacturing PMI at 50.9, from 50.7 in Dec15 - pdf, 3 pages( Markit)
Regarding China, also see:
China - CFLP Manufacturing PMI (Scribd)
Chinas 2016 oil demand 11.32 mbpd (+4.3%). Refinery capacity 14.4 mbpd (CNPC forecast)
China Industrial Value Added (Scribd)
China Trade balance and Outlook (Scribd)
In 2015 import volumes of crude oil increased by 8.8% YoY.
How the PBOC could send oil below $25 (CNBC)
A New Economic Era for China Goes Off the Rails (NYT)
Chinese Renminbi to Be Included in IMFs Special Drawing Right Basket (IMF)
China - Economic forecast summary (OECD, November 2015)
The Conference Board - Leading Economic Index
China, Gross Domestic Product 2015 and 2016 projected (Scribd)
Final readings:
The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy pdf, 35 pages (IMF)
What drives crude oil prices? (EIA) pdf, 23 pages
News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries (IMF) pdf, 54 pages
5) Miscellaneous
i. Evolution of futures markets - Commitments of Traders
On February 2, 2016 the net long positions of speculative investors decreased by 65.7% YoY.
From late January open interest comfortably exceeded 1.8 million contracts
The following table shows the weekly positions held by the main groups of traders in the futures market for WTI (NYMEX), futures contracts only.
CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE All
Report
Producer
Swap Dealer
Managed Money
Other reportable
Non-reportable
OI Open Which:
date
Interest Spread Long
Net
% OI
Long
Net
Spread Long
Net
YoY Spread Long
Net
Spread Long
Net
Feb 9, 16 1,877,741 768,129 217,630 -235,440 -12.5% 237,714 44,677 179,275 280,973 72,249 -63.0% 340,304 278,519 133,564 248,550 94,776 8,342
Feb 2, 16 1,855,603 765,230 224,224 -231,516 -12.5% 227,385 37,603 177,130 272,485 66,270 -65.7% 343,376 273,335 130,603 244,724 92,944 8,913
Jan 26, 16 1,761,883 726,338 189,269 -227,826 -12.9% 235,095 43,707 172,095 268,202 77,084 -62.2% 318,940 255,508 128,626 235,303 87,471 3,340
Jan 19, 16 1,686,382 709,156 168,623 -230,088 -13.6% 232,689 39,041 171,051 240,700 56,663 -72.5% 314,724 242,074 122,709 223,381 93,140 11,675
Jan 12, 16 1,756,232 738,767 171,050 -224,985 -12.8% 250,440 46,745 168,737 249,863 36,372 -82.2% 326,905 249,932 127,132 243,125 96,180 14,736
Jan 5, 16 1,703,201 759,211 162,630 -212,749 -12.5% 234,339 24,184 179,100 231,998 49,436 -73.7% 348,073 228,419 134,741 232,038 86,604 4,388
Quarterly average
1Q2016
1,833,412 754,981 191,226 -251,367 -13.7% 261,998 -17,247 178,612 273,038 62,031 -66.2% 336,115 260,466 129,856 240,254 91,703 4,849
4Q2015
1,661,807 701,745 163,913 -205,570 -12.4% 233,673 -24,345 179,654 261,320 117,144 -40.9% 281,831 219,639 109,179 240,260 81,516 3,592
3Q2015
1,683,656 732,825 183,745 -143,264 -8.5% 211,784 -98,110 189,078 254,959 125,824 -45.6% 275,912 224,498 117,178 267,835 75,846 -1,628
2Q2015
1,687,823 696,416 213,510 -164,808 -9.8% 195,745 -156,636 159,203 318,682 244,584 -23.3% 278,878 186,395 75,231 258,335 77,076 1,628
1Q2015
1,678,761 696,549 230,759 -118,767 -7.1% 178,866 -148,478 162,440 307,213 183,413 -35.0% 278,616 183,528 79,110 255,493 81,847 4,723
Last week reported Contract unit = 1,000 barrels Net = Long less Short positions
Own estimate
This table has been updated on February 5, 2016, and includes a statistical estimate of the future traders positions purely speculative
Links: CFTC - Commitments of Traders
ii. Impact of the oversupply of OPEC crude oil in price differentials

In recent weeks, characterized by great prices volatility, it began to see a turnaround differentials of the OPEC basket price compared to WTI and Brent.
Notwithstanding the volatility, this shift could indicate growing difficulties of OPEC to sell on the spot market its growing oil production.
The difficulties oversupply are also affecting shipments of other competitive petroleum producers, who have had to correct their discount to rise.
Week
ended
Spot price US$ per barrel

OPEC
Dec 4, 15
Dec 11, 15
Dec 18, 15
Dec 24, 15
Dec 31, 15
Jan 8, 16
Jan 15, 16
Jan 22, 16
Jan 29, 16
Feb 5, 16
Feb 12, 16
Feb 19, 16
Latest data
Own estimate
38.49
34.95
32.10
31.33
31.49
29.81
25.65
23.66
26.90
29.20
27.19
25.61
WTI
40.40
36.93
35.78
36.26
36.99
34.65
30.59
29.06
31.81
31.33
28.59
28.10
Brent
42.41
38.76
36.84
35.90
36.55
34.19
29.10
27.76
31.75
32.47
29.55
28.96
Price differentials
OPEC less OPEC less
WTI
Brent
-1.91
-3.92
-1.99
-3.81
-3.67
-4.73
-4.94
-4.58
-5.50
-5.06
-4.84
-4.39
-4.93
-3.45
-5.40
-4.10
-4.91
-4.85
-2.12
-3.27
-1.40
-2.36
-2.49
-3.35

Also see:
Med crude-Urals prices slide in northwest Europe as demand eases (Reuters)
MME average daily price
iii. Worldwide Rig Count

Due to the international oil prices fall, 2015 rig count average was down by 1,241 from 2014
In the 4Q2015 the worldwide (excluding China and Russia) rigs count was down by 154 from the 3Q2015 average
According to OPEC, at the end of 2014 a total of 5,197 rigs were active worldwide, from 5,104 at the end of 2013,
led by the US with 1,881, OPEC with 855, China 823, Canada 374, Russia with 307, India 114 and Argentina 113 rigs.
With weekly (US and Canada) and an international monthly summary reports of Baker Hughes Rig Counts are often used in industry as an indicator of the
possible evolution of oil and gas production from new wells.
In January 2016 the international rig count was 1,045 (-50 from Dec15), 192 in Canada (+32), and 654 in the US (-60).
According to the weekly report of February 5, 2016 the rig count in the US was down by 48 from 619 rigs in the previous week.
In Canada contracts in operation was 242, from 231 rigs in the previous week.
Rigs per 1.0 $/bl
8.6 36.7 $41.54
Canada U.S. WTI $/bl
3.6 17.6 $61.65
4.4 19.4 $79.40
4.5 19.8 $94.87
3.9 20.4 $94.11
3.6 18.0 $97.91
4.1 20.0 $93.26
4.0 20.1 $48.69
5.2 17.9 $36.52
4.1 17.3 $43.24
3.9 17.9 $45.90
Latest data
WTI futures contracts
5.6 26.1
73.16
6.4 28.4
48.54
1.7 15.7
57.76
4.1 18.6
46.51
4.1 18.0
41.95
6.5 19.8
31.80
5.5 18.1
35.11
4.7 17.1
38.65
Latest data
7.8 35.6 $47.22
7.2 26.7 $50.58
4.1 23.2 $47.82
1.7 18.0 $54.21
1.4 15.0 $59.25
2.2 14.4 $59.82
3.6 16.9 $51.16
4.8 20.6 $42.87
4.0 18.6 $45.50
4.0 17.1 $46.22
4.2 17.9 $42.44
4.3 19.2 $37.19
6.1 20.7 $31.53
7.5 19.0 $31.28
5.9 19.6 $32.58
Latest data
Worldwide rig count (*)

L-T avg 332
130
99 216 224 1,001
271 1,450 2,722
NSA
LA EUR Afr. ME Pac.
Intl. Canada U.S. World
2009
356
84
62 252 243
997
221 1,086 2,304
2010
383
94
83 265 269 1,094
351 1,541 2,985
2011
424
118
78 291 256 1,167
423 1,875 3,465
2012
423
119
96 356 241 1,234
365 1,919 3,518
2013
419
135 125 372 246 1,296
355 1,761 3,412
2014
397
145 134 406 254 1,337
380 1,862 3,578
2015
319
117 106 406 220 1,167
193
977 2,337
2016
263
109
95 407 200 1,074
190
654 1,918
2017
293
112
99 407 210 1,121
175
750 2,046
2018
302
113 100 407 213 1,134
179
820 2,133
Latest data Source: Baker Hughes - (*) Excludes China and FSU
Own estimate
NSA
LA EUR Afr. ME Pac.
Intl. Canada U.S. World
2014Q4 379
148 135 399 254 1,315
407 1,911 3,632
2015Q1 352
132 130 412 235 1,261
309 1,380 2,951
2015Q2 322
116 108 403 220 1,169
100
909 2,177
2015Q3 318
109
95 393 217 1,132
191
866 2,188
2015Q4 283
110
91 415 206 1,105
174
755 2,034
2016Q1 242
108
93 406 193 1,042
206
630 1,878
2016Q2 258
108
94 407 198 1,065
193
636 1,894
2016Q3 272
110
96 407 203 1,087
183
661 1,932
Latest data Source: Baker Hughes - (*) Excludes China and FSU
Own estimate
NSA
LA EUR Afr. ME Pac.
Intl. Canada U.S.
Total World
Jan-15 351
128 132 415 232 1,258
368 1,683 3,309
Feb-15 355
133 132 415 240 1,275
363 1,348 2,986
Mar-15 351
135 125 407 233 1,251
196 1,110 2,557
Apr-15 325
119 120 410 228 1,202
90
976 2,268
May-15 327
116 100 398 217 1,158
80
889 2,127
Jun-15 314
113 103 401 215 1,146
129
861 2,136
Jul-15 313
108
94 391 212 1,118
183
866 2,167
Aug-15 319
109
96 393 220 1,137
206
883 2,226
Sep-15 321
109
96 396 218 1,140
183
848 2,171
Oct-15 294
108
93 403 213 1,111
184
791 2,086
Nov-15 284
108
90 419 208 1,109
178
760 2,047
Dec-15 270
114
91 422 198 1,095
160
714 1,969
Jan-16 243
108
94 407 193 1,045
192
654 1,891
Feb-16 235
108
92 405 190 1,030
235
595 1,860
Mar-16 247
108
93 407 195 1,050
192
640 1,882
Latest data
Own estimate
Also see: Offshore Rig Day Rates (Rigzone)
Important note: New developments in oil fields (except for exceptional leases) remain economically and financially not feasible with the
current structure of international prices. Infill wells, for the use of surface facilities, continues to support a level of extremely low drilling
activity. Refraking, completion of wells, and the elimination of some bottlenecks in the production and transportation of natural gas are
significantly helping to maintain oil production levels.
3/4
Notes: Implications for the US market
Regulations and other events with impact on costs or productivity, and other comments
Average annual natural gas spot price in 2015 was at lowest level since 1999 (EIA)
U.S. official expects Exxon, other oil firms, to share tax data (Reuters)
Shell finds 100 million oil barrels in deep-water Gulf discovery (FuelFix)
Study finds dispersants did not help oil degrade in BP Deepwater Horizon spill (Tampa Bay)
California oversight of oil well injection sites inadequate - state review (Reuters)
Energy Infrastructure with Real-Time Storm Information (EIA)
Tar-sands oil mining has now come to the U.S. (Grist Org.)
EPA Updates Emissions Standards for Petroleum Refineries Overview pdf, 4 pages
Guidance in Mitigating Risks of Induced Seismic Events pdf, 148 pages (States First Initiative)
Press release pdf, 2 pages
Key Messages pdf, 2 pages
Sustained low oil prices could reduce exploration and production investment (EIA)
Industrial Production Index (Federal Reserve)

In 2015 the Industrial Production Index increased 1.3%, frrom +3.7% in 2014
Manufacturing output grew 2.2% but Mining output fell 1.40% (nsa)
In particular, Oil and Gas Extraction grew 6.9% but drilling activity fell by 46.6% (nsa)
Industrial Production Index (Source: Federal Reserve and own estimate)

2012=100
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual 2012=100
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
NSA - Drilling oil and gas wells NAICS=213111
SA - Drilling oil and gas wells NAICS=213111
2014
99.327 101.542 102.817 101.680 101.115 99.563 98.594 2014
98.687 100.075 101.618 101.042 100.384 99.550
2015
46.505 47.677 45.642 43.112 41.438 38.084 52.610 2015
46.174 46.946 45.075 42.839 41.126 38.095
YoY
-53.18% -53.05% -55.61% -57.60% -59.02% -61.75% -46.64% MoM
1.28% 1.67% -3.98% -4.96% -4.00% -7.37%
NSA - Oil and gas extraction NAICS=211
SA - Oil and gas extraction NAICS=211
2014
127.073 128.341 129.783 131.849 132.769 135.786 126.339 2014
128.163 129.098 130.205 130.620 130.823 134.897
2015
135.423 135.111 135.884 134.416 132.538 132.635 135.008 2015
136.497 135.872 136.373 133.170 130.575 131.737
YoY
6.57%
5.27%
4.70%
1.95% -0.17% -2.32%
6.86% MoM
0.26% -0.46% 0.37% -2.35% -1.95% 0.89%
NSA - Crude petroleum and natural gas extraction NAICS=211111
SA - Crude petroleum and natural gas extraction NAICS=211111
2014
127.250 128.553 129.986 132.148 133.227 136.305 126.657 2014
128.338 129.370 130.582 131.013 131.300 135.337
2015
135.699 135.310 136.084 134.436 132.384 132.483 135.268 2015
136.775 136.128 136.737 133.284 130.447 131.505
YoY
6.64%
5.26%
4.69%
1.73% -0.63% -2.80%
6.80% MoM
0.29% -0.47% 0.45% -2.53% -2.13% 0.81%
NSA Crude oil NAICS=211111pt.
SA Crude oil NAICS=211111pt.
2014
134.874 136.150 138.008 140.717 141.765 145.078 134.223 2014
136.634 137.544 138.985 139.399 139.620 143.871
2015
143.892 143.470 144.293 142.581 140.115 140.232 143.770 2015
145.592 144.844 145.341 141.242 137.959 139.029
YoY
6.69%
5.38%
4.55%
1.32% -1.16% -3.34%
7.11% MoM
0.66% -0.51% 0.34% -2.82% -2.32% 0.78%
NSA - Natural gas NAICS=211111pt.
SA - Natural gas NAICS=211111pt.
2014
108.602 110.003 110.283 110.962 112.156 114.643 108.136 2014
107.860 109.242 109.842 110.332 110.812 114.338
2015
115.851 115.547 116.202 114.682 115.627 115.896 114.787 2015
114.998 114.641 115.635 114.096 114.281 115.620
YoY
6.67%
5.04%
5.37%
3.35%
3.10%
1.09%
6.15% MoM
-1.14% -0.31% 0.87% -1.33% 0.16% 1.17%
NSA Natural gas liquid extraction NAICS=211112
SA Natural gas liquid extraction NAICS=211112
2014
122.741 123.194 124.836 124.628 121.769 123.306 118.695 2014
123.844 122.542 121.170 121.192 119.403 124.381
2015
129.224 130.977 131.754 135.169 138.027 138.066 129.407 2015
130.195 130.148 127.714 131.291 135.309 139.358
YoY
5.28%
6.32%
5.54%
8.46% 13.35% 11.97%
9.02% MoM
-0.53% -0.04% -1.87% 2.80% 3.06% 2.99%
Latest data
Own estimate
Annual
98.562
52.721
-46.51%
126.339
135.046
6.89%
126.657
135.303
6.83%
134.223
143.808
7.14%
108.121
114.787
6.17%
118.695
129.425
9.04%
This Week in Petroleum (EIA)

In the week ending January 29, 2016:
Oil production is estimated at 9,214 Kbpd
Imports are estimated at 8,256 Kbpd, approx. 2.0 mbpd over refining demand.
Processing crude at 15.6 mbpd. Refineries operated at 86.6% of their operable capacity, from 87.4% in the previous week
Total products supplied over the last four week period averaged 19.7 mbpd, up by 0.3% from the same period last year
Gasoline supplied down by -0.9% YoY and distillates was down by -16.0% YoY
Commercial crude oil inventories increased 7.8 million barrels up to 32.2 days of oil processing, from 26.6 days on Jan. 30, 2015.
Gasoline inventories increased by 5.9 million barrels and distillate fuel inventories decreased by -0.8 mbl from previous week
The following table summarizes the latest weekly evolution of the main variables.
Commercial trade
Oil Stock
Oil refining (000 bl/d)
Week
(000) bpd
(000) bpd
(000) barrels
4-week
Week
YoY
avg.
level
4-week chg
Imports Exports
Week
Change
Nov 27, 15 9,202
42
7,747
445
489,424
1,177 16,803 16,300 1.9%
Dec 4, 15 9,164
-21
8,021
445
485,856
-3,568 16,652 16,478 1.6%
Dec 11, 15 9,176
-6
8,312
445
490,657
4,801 16,611 16,612 1.8%
Dec 18, 15 9,179
14
7,326
500
484,780
-5,877 16,468 16,634 1.4%
Dec 25, 15 9,202
0
7,892
500
487,409
2,629 16,682 16,603 1.2%
Jan 1, 16 9,219
55
7,510
500
482,324
-5,085 16,617 16,595 1.4%
Jan 8, 16 9,227
51
8,188
500
482,558
234 16,423 16,548 1.8%
Jan 15, 16 9,235
56
7,779
500
486,537
3,979 16,190 16,478 3.6%
Jan 22, 16 9,221
19
7,609
399
494,920
8,383 15,639 16,217 3.8%
Jan 29, 16 9,214
-5
8,256
399
502,712
7,792 15,615 15,967 3.7%
Feb 5, 16 9,204
-23
6,216
450
496,802
-5,910 15,814 15,815 3.2%
Feb 12, 16 9,195
-40
7,144
450
497,852
1,050 15,739 15,702 1.6%
Feb 19, 16 9,187
-34
7,583
450
503,230
5,378 15,552 15,680 1.5%
Feb 26, 16 9,150
-64
7,327
450
507,451
4,221 15,424 15,632 1.9%
Mar 4, 16 9,134
-70
7,450
450
511,116
3,665 15,610 15,581 2.0%
Mar 11, 16 9,120
-75
7,699
450
515,476
4,360 15,746 15,583 2.0%
Mar 18, 16 9,100
-88
7,668
475
518,651
3,175 15,839 15,655 2.0%
Mar 25, 16 9,079
-71
7,706
475
520,578
1,927 16,035 15,808 2.0%
Latest data
Own estimate
EIA Monthly Data
Monthly Energy Review January 2016 - pdf, 237 pages (January 27, 2015)
Petroleum Overview
Petroleum
Field
Bio-fuels & Processing
Petroleum
(000) bpd
NGL
Production
R-O-R'
Gain
Supplied
48 States
Alaska
Total U.S
Imports
Exports
Net
Jan-15
8,840.3
504.9
9,345.2
2,980.3
12,325.5
1,054.0
1,023.0
9,392.5
4,567.3
4,825.2
19,248.7
Feb-15
8,962.7
493.6
9,456.3
3,099.6
12,555.9
1,046.1
954.9
9,243.2
4,698.8
4,544.4
19,396.2
Mar-15
9,141.9
510.9
9,652.9
3,181.3
12,834.1
1,052.1
998.5
9,552.0
4,120.1
5,431.9
19,238.0
Apr-15
9,184.4
509.9
9,694.3
3,313.4
13,007.8
1,065.1
1,042.1
9,307.4
4,943.3
4,364.1
19,037.0
May-15
9,006.3
472.6
9,478.9
3,248.6
12,727.5
1,106.2
1,041.3
9,470.0
4,873.9
4,596.1
19,116.5
Jun-15
8,868.5
446.6
9,315.1
3,259.4
12,574.5
1,147.5
989.9
9,551.6
4,667.7
4,883.9
19,590.9
Jul-15
8,983.0
449.7
9,432.7
3,284.2
12,716.9
1,124.0
1,052.7
9,510.7
4,966.8
4,543.9
19,979.2
Aug-15
8,998.8
407.8
9,406.6
3,318.7
12,725.3
1,098.5
1,163.6
9,768.4
4,563.7
5,204.7
19,814.1
Sep-15
8,987.3
472.4
9,459.7
3,342.8
12,802.5
1,091.9
1,009.2
9,334.7
4,883.8
4,450.9
19,224.6
Oct-15
8,849.6
497.0
9,346.6
3,428.0
12,774.6
1,111.8
1,017.4
8,799.9
4,627.8
4,172.1
19,350.2
Nov-15
8,656.0
525.0
9,181.0
3,400.0
12,581.0
1,051.0
1,066.0
9,133.0
4,438.0
4,695.0
19,714.0
Dec-15
8,665.0
526.0
9,191.0
3,544.0
12,735.0
1,060.0
1,079.0
9,536.0
4,425.0
5,111.0
19,754.0
Petroleum
Field
Bio-fuels & Processing
Petroleum
YoY
NGL
Production
R-O-R'
Gain
Supplied
48 States
Alaska
Total U.S
Imports
Exports
Net
Jan-15
18.57%
-6.83%
16.85%
10.57%
15.26%
5.28%
-7.61%
0.94%
16.77%
-10.54%
0.77%
Feb-15
18.37%
-4.26%
16.93%
14.37%
16.28%
4.58%
-10.28%
0.96%
28.46%
-17.33%
2.58%
Mar-15
18.51%
-3.63%
17.09%
12.44%
15.90%
2.52%
0.71%
3.20%
3.19%
3.21%
4.19%
Apr-15
14.37%
-5.01%
13.15%
12.31%
12.94%
2.39%
-3.33%
-3.05%
24.39%
-22.43%
1.00%
May-15
11.84%
-9.84%
10.51%
9.91%
10.36%
4.63%
2.80%
0.88%
18.51%
-12.86%
2.86%
Jun-15
8.24%
-7.85%
7.34%
5.34%
6.81%
5.16%
-11.74%
8.09%
12.34%
4.31%
3.71%
Jul-15
7.81%
6.44%
7.75%
5.44%
7.14%
3.27%
-4.92%
0.16%
11.27%
-9.69%
3.61%
Aug-15
6.66%
2.46%
6.47%
5.63%
6.25%
4.56%
0.08%
4.83%
2.39%
7.06%
2.14%
Sep-15
5.96%
-1.09%
5.59%
4.63%
5.34%
3.07%
-0.61%
1.67%
23.73%
-14.96%
-0.11%
Oct-15
2.56%
-0.64%
2.39%
7.25%
3.65%
6.51%
-1.07%
-1.40%
11.95%
-12.91%
-1.73%
Nov-15
-0.33%
1.70%
-0.22%
9.14%
2.15%
-0.77%
-9.48%
1.38%
1.96%
0.84%
1.77%
Dec-15
-2.74%
1.25%
-2.52%
12.28%
1.19%
-6.51%
-1.91%
1.42%
-9.55%
13.32%
1.52%
Petroleum Supplied = net of Petroleum Stock Change and Petroleum Adjustments
Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production (EIA-914 suvey January 29, 2016)
(000) bpd
Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 MoM
YoY
YTD (000) bpd
Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Oct YoY Nov YoY Dec YoY
Lower 48 States
8,977.0 8,873.0 8,794.7 -0.88% 1.26% Lower 48 States
8,983.5 8,966.6 8,947.3 11.00% 10.07%
8.96%
Inland
7,272.9 7,249.1 7,227.8 -0.29% -0.24%
Inland
7,417.7 7,400.6 7,372.3 11.53% 10.39%
9.00%
Fed Golf of Mexico
1,687.3 1,606.1 1,549.4 -3.53% 11.57%
Fed Golf of Mexico
1,532.6 1,534.1 1,544.4 10.07% 10.20% 10.53%
Fed Pacific
16.8
17.8
17.6 -1.34% -65.58%
Fed Pacific
33.3
31.9
30.6 -34.08% -36.94% -39.56%
Alaska
472.4 497.0 522.9 5.20% 1.29% Alaska
476.4
480.6
482.6 -3.35% -2.91% -2.90%
Total U.S.
9,449.4 9,370.0 9,317.6 -0.56% 1.27%
Total U.S.
9,459.9 9,447.1 9,429.9 10.17%
9.32%
8.29%
U.S. Crude oil production (including lease condensate) based on data from the EIA-914 survey and own estimate
Company Level Imports (January 29, 2016)
Petroleum Supply Monthly (January 29, 2016)
Petroleum Marketing Monthly (February 1, 2016)
Annual Petroleum Supply - Volume 1 - Volume 2
Drilling Productivity Report - Full report pdf, 11 pages

Depletacin rate in seven production regions monitored by the EIA is shrinking, as the production of new wells lost relative importance.
It has increased the contribution to the new production attributed to each rig count (new well).
The rig count in all regions continues to decline.
2017 oil production for the lower 48 States, according to the STEO report released in February 2016 (6,205 Kbpd) is not consistent with
current projection of active drilling platforms.
An adjustment downward, not less than 0.3 mbpd and up to 0.6 mbpd is estimated
The following table shows the aggregate data
Seven key regions
Oil (bbl/d)
Lower 48
States
(ex
Legacy
Rig
Production
New
Depletion
7-regions
% of total
GoM) (000
production
Month
count
per rig
production
rate
production production
bpd)
change
Jan-15
1,138
128
166,697
-307,609
-5.76%
5,197,482
70.78%
7,343.032
Feb-15
922
349
442,066
-312,619
-6.01%
5,326,929
71.21%
7,480.251
Mar-15
760
404
460,255
-317,253
-5.96%
5,469,931
70.78%
7,727.582
Apr-15
666
305
280,895
-322,529
-5.90%
5,428,297
70.96%
7,649.535
May-15
603
403
306,095
-326,840
-6.02%
5,407,553
71.39%
7,574.675
Jun-15
579
446
296,717
-330,979
-6.12%
5,373,291
72.31%
7,431.065
Jul-15
578
592
356,693
-333,043
-6.20%
5,396,941
72.93%
7,400.290
Aug-15
588
471
272,848
-334,380
-6.20%
5,335,409
72.59%
7,349.711
Sep-15
565
522
301,762
-330,104
-6.19%
5,307,067
72.80%
7,289.734
Oct-15
520
507
298,079
-326,531
-6.15%
5,278,615
72.64%
7,266.870
Nov-15
504
471
265,890
-322,265
-6.11%
5,222,241
72.08%
7,245.367
Dec-15
475
480
249,376
-314,229
-6.02%
5,157,389
72.80%
7,084.460
Jan-16
419
478
240,719
-308,360
-5.98%
5,089,748
72.46%
7,024.491
Feb-16
383
483
229,438
-302,411
-5.94%
5,016,774
72.20%
6,948.549
Mar-16
368
486
203,704
-296,660
-5.91%
4,923,818
71.77%
6,860.574
Apr-16
372
491
188,232
-289,402
-5.88%
4,822,648
71.23%
6,770.139
May-16
375
502
184,900
-281,847
-5.84%
4,725,701
70.72%
6,682.388
Jun-16
379
507
188,438
-274,600
-5.81%
4,639,539
70.33%
6,597.141
Jul-16
382
510
191,227
-268,183
-5.78%
4,562,583
69.99%
6,518.610
Aug-16
386
514
194,828
-262,483
-5.75%
4,494,927
69.71%
6,447.736
Sep-16
389
517
197,653
-257,505
-5.73%
4,435,075
69.49%
6,382.182
Oct-16
393
522
201,317
-253,124
-5.71%
4,383,268
69.33%
6,322.502
Nov-16
396
525
204,180
-249,365
-5.69%
4,338,084
69.18%
6,270.832
Dec-16
400
529
207,906
-246,107
-5.67%
4,299,882
68.85%
6,245.695
Jan-17
389
532
210,808
-243,387
-5.66%
4,267,303
68.40%
6,238.634
Latest data
Latest EIA-914 and STEO repot estimate (Feb16)
Own estimate
Also see:
Validation of shale production modeling and forecasting (Rystad Energy)
U.S. shale output set to fall by 600,000 bpd in January from March peak (Reuters)
Analysis and Estimation of the US Oil Production (Scribd)
U.S. International Trade

In 2015 value of oil imports contracted by 48.9%.
Links: Census Bureau and the US BEA - Full report pdf, 54 pages (Dec15)
IMPORTS
(thousands)
NSA
2013
Jan.- Dec.
2014
Jan.- Dec.
2015
Jan.- Dec.
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Latest data
Total energy-related petroleum

Quantity
Value
$/bl
(barrels)
(dollars)
Quantity
(barrels)
3,549,946
352,070,957 99.18
2,813,771 7,709
-8.9% 272,807,179 -12.9% 96.95
-4.1%
3,381,460
316,597,257 93.63
2,700,938 7,400
-4.0% 246,407,742
-9.7% 91.23
-5.9%
3,384,807
292,867
250,650
286,647
294,595
265,139
287,135
300,035
279,613
293,965
262,938
261,869
309,354
170,164,481
17,679,621
13,266,616
14,371,141
14,881,910
14,789,361
16,483,337
17,235,613
14,537,472
13,300,452
11,115,676
10,723,821
11,779,461
2,662,051
222,776
192,052
226,375
235,934
201,878
223,390
236,579
219,426
231,423
206,740
211,053
254,425
-1.4% 125,819,431 -48.9% 47.26

-13.3% 13,133,885 -43.4% 58.96
-9.8%
9,511,905 -51.2% 49.53
1.0% 10,520,000 -50.0% 46.47
-1.3% 10,975,603 -51.9% 46.52
-5.2% 10,246,955 -49.9% 50.76
4.4% 12,009,050 -41.8% 53.76
-0.9% 12,822,942 -45.1% 54.20
1.7% 10,823,848 -47.9% 49.33
2.4%
9,887,183 -52.7% 42.72
-7.7%
8,293,843 -58.2% 40.12
10.9%
8,282,101 -47.5% 39.24
3.4%
9,312,116 -48.6% 36.60
-48.2%
-34.7%
-45.9%
-50.5%
-51.3%
-47.2%
-44.2%
-44.6%
-48.8%
-53.8%
-54.7%
-52.7%
-50.3%
50.27
60.37
52.93
50.14
50.52
55.78
57.41
57.45
51.99
45.25
42.27
40.95
38.08
Crude oil (000))

bpd
7,293
7,186
6,859
7,302
7,864
6,512
7,446
7,632
7,078
7,714
6,669
7,035
8,207
YoY
Value
YoY
$/bbl
YoY
Employment level
According to the Employment Situation Report, US BLS, in Jan16 the O&G extraction reduced its staffing in 15,800 from Jan15.
In turn, in Dec15 the personnel employed in support activities for O&G fell by 74,000 YoY (our pevious estimate was 76,800),
estimating a net reduction of 75,900 jobs for Jan16 compared to the same month last year.
All employees (000) NSA Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Oil and gas extraction
198.6
196.2
195.9
191.4
192.5
193.3 194.2
192.4
189.7
186.8
184.8
184.8
182.8
Annual change
4.8
1.7
3.2
-2.1
-3.4
-5.6
-6.5
-7.9
-9.2
-14.1
-15.7
-16.6
-15.8
Support activities for O&G
327.8
320.5
310.6
304.8
288.0
287.3 287.3
279.1
275.3
270.0
262.1
260.4
251.9
Annual change
20.1
11.6
-3.9
-12.3
-29.4
-35.0
-42.1
-55.7
-64.7
-63.7
-70.8
-74.0
-75.9
Support activity ratio
1.65
1.63
1.59
1.59
1.50
1.49
1.48
1.45
1.45
1.45
1.42
1.41
1.38
Latest data US Bureau of Labor Statistics
All employees (000) SA
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Oil and gas extraction
198.7
197.2
197.9
193.9
193.2
192.2 192.5
190.9
189.2
186.7
185.0
183.8
183.0
Monthly change
-1.9
-1.5
0.7
-4.0
-0.7
-1.0
0.3
-1.6
-1.7
-2.5
-1.7
-1.2
-0.8
Support activities for O&G
328.3
321.3
311.5
306.1
291.9
288.9 282.8
278.6
273.4
270.7
262.2
258.2
254.2
Monthly change
-4.0
-7.0
-9.8
-5.4
-14.2
-3.0
-6.1
-4.2
-5.2
-2.7
-8.5
-4.0
-4.0
Support activity ratio
1.65
1.63
1.57
1.58
1.51
1.50
1.47
1.46
1.45
1.45
1.42
1.40
1.39
Own estimate
JOB-CUT
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas (press release January 2016 Job Cut Rreport - pdf, 10 pages)
In January 2016 job cuts for the energy sector was 20,103, from 1,682 in Dec15 and 20,193 in Jan15
Of the total US job cuts in Jan16 (75,114 positions), because of oil prices have justified a total of 17,178
Texas (Barnett Shale, etc.) and Arkansas (Fayetteville Shale, etc.), leading States with higher job cuts.
US Oil Patch Layoffs Relentless, Recruiters Say (MNI)
Mining, Oil, and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing

According to the US Census BEA Final Report - pdf, 9 pages (Dec15)
In Dec15 shipments of machinery for mining, O&G fields, decreased by 44.4% YoY
New orders collapsed with a fall of 91.2% YoY
In 2015 the nominal drop in sales was 36.4% and a further decline of 21.6% in 2016 is estimated.
The following table shows an evolution and estimate for the coming months
Mining, Oil, and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing [Millions of Dollars]
Shipments
New Orders
Inventories (annual avg.)
(days)
(value)
NSA
YoY
SA
YoY
NSA
YoY
SA
YoY
NSA SA NSA SA
2009
20,286 -17.2% 20,359 -16.5% 19,696 -31.7% 19,677 -31.5% 109.3 108.9 6,076 6,074
2010
21,086
3.9% 21,082
3.6% 18,854
-4.3% 18,878
-4.1% 98.4 98.4 5,685 5,684
2011
25,508 21.0% 25,459 20.8% 28,743 52.5% 28,954 53.4% 94.6 94.8 6,609 6,611
2012
32,677 28.1% 32,610 28.1% 31,863 10.9% 31,725
9.6% 90.5 90.7 8,081 8,082
2013
32,161 -1.6% 32,125 -1.5% 32,594
2.3% 32,592
2.7% 91.9 92.0 8,100 8,100
2014
32,685
1.6% 32,742
1.9% 31,809
-2.4% 31,861
-2.2% 79.4 79.2 7,106 7,101
2015
20,778 -36.4% 20,982 -35.9% 17,251 -45.8% 17,331 -45.6% 98.9 98.1 5,632 5,640
2016
16,281 -21.6% 16,281 -22.4% 16,670
-3.4% 16,669
-3.8% 97.8 97.8 4,352 4,352
2017
19,323 18.7% 19,323 18.7% 19,375 16.2% 19,374 16.2% 93.2 93.2 4,934 4,934
2018
20,772
7.5% 20,772
7.5% 20,810
7.4% 20,811
7.4% 96.2 96.2 5,477 5,477
2019
21,912
5.5% 21,911
5.5% 21,953
5.5% 21,956
5.5% 97.3 97.3 5,839 5,839
2020
22,885
4.4% 22,884
4.4% 23,282
6.1% 23,287
6.1% 96.2 96.2 6,012 6,012
Latest data
Own estimate
Shipments
New Orders
Inventories (quarter avg)
(days)
(value)
NSA
YoY
SA
QoQ
NSA
YoY
SA
QoQ
NSA SA NSA SA
2014Q1
7,924
1.0% 8,163 -0.4% 8,837
8.7% 8,912 11.7% 86.4 84.6 7,603 7,671
2014Q2
8,614 10.8% 8,719
6.8% 8,549
2.5% 8,379
-6.0% 79.7 77.4 7,543 7,419
2014Q3
8,459
5.4% 8,408 -3.6% 8,283
0.8% 8,266
-1.3% 78.2 77.5 7,190 7,087
2014Q4
7,688 -9.8% 7,452 -11.4% 6,140 -22.4% 6,304 -23.7% 72.8 76.9 6,087 6,227
2015Q1
6,215 -21.6% 6,427 -13.8% 5,827 -34.1% 5,838
-7.4% 87.2 85.0 6,020 6,072
2015Q2
5,341 -38.0% 5,433 -15.5% 4,603 -46.2% 4,492 -23.1% 98.9 95.5 5,807 5,699
2015Q3
4,811 -43.1% 4,821 -11.3% 4,159 -49.8% 4,162
-7.3% 105.0 103.8 5,493 5,438
2015Q4
4,411 -42.6% 4,301 -10.8% 2,662 -56.6% 2,839 -31.8% 108.6 114.5 5,207 5,351
2016Q1
4,141 -33.4% 4,249 -1.2% 4,032 -30.8% 4,001 40.9% 105.5 103.6 4,802 4,837
2016Q2
3,798 -28.9% 3,847 -9.5% 3,853 -16.3% 3,734
-6.7% 102.0 98.9 4,257 4,181
2016Q3
4,018 -16.5% 4,007
4.2% 4,158
-0.0% 4,101
9.8% 96.1 95.1 4,198 4,142
2016Q4
4,324 -2.0% 4,178
4.3% 4,626 73.8% 4,833 17.8% 88.3 93.5 4,150 4,248
Latest data
Own estimate
Shipments
New Orders
Inventories
(days)
(value)
NSA
YoY
SA
MoM
NSA
YoY
SA
MoM
NSA SA NSA SA
Jan-15
2,094 -14.7% 2,277 -3.4% 2,010 -35.1% 2,195
2.3% 89.1 83.5 6,019 6,134
Feb-15
1,985 -19.5% 2,133 -6.3% 2,061 -25.6% 1,821 -17.0% 84.9 79.5 6,021 6,055
Mar-15
2,136 -28.9% 2,017 -5.4% 1,756 -40.8% 1,822
0.1% 87.4 92.6 6,019 6,027
Apr-15
1,787 -38.4% 1,925 -4.6% 1,572 -40.8% 1,784
-2.1% 100.8 91.8 6,004 5,893
May-15
1,703 -39.9% 1,773 -7.9% 1,394 -46.5% 1,331 -25.4% 106.9 99.9 5,873 5,716
Jun-15
1,851 -35.8% 1,735 -2.1% 1,637 -50.2% 1,377
3.5% 89.9 94.9 5,545 5,489
Jul-15
1,611 -42.4% 1,693 -2.4% 1,377 -49.3% 1,412
2.5% 106.7 100.1 5,545 5,466
Aug-15
1,579 -43.1% 1,579 -6.7% 1,348 -52.5% 1,413
0.1% 108.7 106.8 5,539 5,440
Sep-15
1,621 -43.9% 1,549 -1.9% 1,434 -47.5% 1,337
-5.4% 99.8 104.7 5,394 5,407
Oct-15
1,539 -39.5% 1,532 -1.1% 1,302 -29.0% 1,460
9.2% 106.2 108.3 5,272 5,352
Nov-15
1,355 -43.9% 1,428 -6.8% 1,163 -43.5% 1,132 -22.5% 116.2 111.9 5,249 5,328
Dec-15
1,517 -44.4% 1,341 -6.1%
197 -91.2%
247 -78.2% 104.2 124.2 5,099 5,373
Jan-16
1,266 -39.5% 1,365
1.8% 1,353 -32.7% 1,378 457.9% 112.0 105.7 4,572 4,653
Feb-16
1,322 -33.4% 1,408
3.2% 1,342 -34.9% 1,251
-9.2% 109.7 103.4 5,001 5,019
Mar-16
1,553 -27.3% 1,476
4.8% 1,336 -23.9% 1,372
9.7% 96.5 101.6 4,834 4,838
Latest data
Own estimate
S&P 500 Energy
The value of shares in the energy sector fell by ~ -30.39% YoY on Feb. 9, 2016, from -28.50% YoY on Feb 8, 2016.
According to S&P Dow Jones for its index S&P 500 Energy Sector, the evolution of earnings per share was::
S&P 500 energy sector
2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4
Operating Earnings Per Share
$11.70
$11.94
$12.56
$6.74
-$0.48
-$0.51
-$4.52
-$2.20
As Reported Earnings Per Share
$9.98
$11.41
$11.69
$2.15
-$1.80
-$1.50
-$6.01
#N/A
th
Sales in the 4 quarter 2015:
SALES $ MILLIONS
Quarterly sales per share
COMPANY
QoQ
YoY
4Q2015
3Q2015
4Q2014
SP500 Energy
$/sh
YoY
Exxon Mobil
$54,437
$59,866
$76,085
-9.07% -28.45%
2010 Q3
$110.14
#N/A
Chevron Corp
$26,297
$30,967
$40,107 -15.08% -34.43%
2010 Q4
$117.59
13.14%
Valero Energy
$18,777
$22,579
$27,859 -16.84% -32.60%
2011 Q1
$128.52
22.13%
Phillips 66
$18,451
$22,279
$31,311 -17.18% -41.07%
2011 Q2
$139.33
28.45%
Marathon Petroleum
$13,674
$16,728
$20,301 -18.26% -32.64%
2011 Q3
$145.58
32.17%
Schlumberger Ltd
$7,744
$8,473
$12,641
-8.60% -38.74%
2011 Q4
$143.47
22.01%
ConocoPhillips
$6,293
$7,262
$11,208 -13.34% -43.85%
2012 Q1
$145.20
12.97%
Tesoro Corp
$6,273
$7,606
$8,315 -17.53% -24.56%
2012 Q2
$145.39
4.35%
Halliburton Co
$5,082
$5,582
$8,770
-8.96% -42.05%
2012 Q3
$140.93
-3.19%
Kinder Morgan
$3,636
$3,707
$3,951
-1.92%
-7.97%
2012 Q4
$140.72
-1.91%
Baker Hughes Inc
$3,394
$3,786
$6,635 -10.35% -48.85%
2013 Q1
$134.07
-7.66%
Occidental Petroleum
$2,806
$3,116
$4,307
-9.95% -34.85%
2013 Q2
$138.06
-5.04%
Natl Oilwell Varco
$2,722
$3,306
$5,709 -17.66% -52.32%
2013 Q3
$142.89
1.39%
Cameron Intl
$2,079
$2,208
$2,804
-5.84% -25.86%
2013 Q4
$139.27
-1.03%
Anadarko Petroleum
$2,034
$2,230
$3,422
-8.79% -40.56%
2014 Q1
$137.38
2.47%
Hess Corp
$1,474
$1,671
$2,557 -11.79% -42.35%
2014 Q2
$144.23
4.47%
Spectra Energy
$1,316
$1,103
$1,600
19.31% -17.75%
2014 Q3
$140.55
-1.64%
CONSOL Energy
$708
$734
$873
-3.43% -18.89%
2014 Q4
$117.74
-15.46%
Murphy Oil
$658
$666
$1,219
-1.13% -46.01%
2015 Q1
$87.59
-36.24%
EQT Corp
$601
$577
$703
4.22% -14.48%
2015 Q2
$96.04
-33.41%
Helmerich & Payne
$488
$566
$1,061 -13.82% -54.01%
2015 Q3
$86.47
-38.48%
Total 21 energy companies
$178,945
$205,011
$271,438 -12.71% -34.08%
2015 Q4
$77.12
-34.50%
Estimate
Source: S&P Capital IQ Compustat
Also see:
Exxon Mobil in the Q4 2015 earnings fell 57.7% and sales by 31.5% YoY pdf, 11 pages
Chevron Reports Fourth Quarter Loss of $588 Million And 2015 Earnings of $4.6 Billion
Valero Energy Q4 2015 (SEC 8K) pdf, 15 pages
Phillips 66 Reports Fourth-Quarter Earnings of $650 Million or $1.20 Per Share
Marathon Petroleum Corp. 2015 Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year Financial Results
Schlumberger Announces Full-Year and Fourth-Quarter 2015 Results
ConocoPhillips Fourth-Quarter 2015 financial results pdf, 8 pages
Tesoro Corp in the Q4 2015 earnings fell 37.1% and sales by 25.7% YoY
Halliburton Co. income for the fourth quarter of 2015 was $270 million pdf, 18 pages
Kinder Morgan 4th quarter 2015: net loss $ 611 million, from net income $126 million in 4Q2014
Baker Hughes Announces Fourth Quarter and Annual Results
Looking ahead, we are forecasting rig activity worldwide to continue to decline throughout 2016. At current commodity
prices, the global rig count could decline as much as 30% in 2016, as our customers' challenges of maximizing production,
lowering their overall costs, and protecting cash flows are now more acute.
Chesapeake Energy Corporation Statement
Chesapeake currently has no plans to pursue bankruptcy
Note: Impact of the revaluation of US dollar in the international oil price

An appreciation of the dollar is usually associated with a reduction in commodity prices expressed in dollars.
By 2016, an appreciation of the dollar is forecast between 5.7% and 10.8% from 2015 average.
Similarly, a fall of international oil prices between 21% and 36% is forecast.
In 2015 the dollar has appreciated by 12.13% from major US trading partners, amd the Brent falls 3.88 times the dollar appreciation.
Selected
countries
China
Euro area
Canada
Mexico
Japan
Korea
United Kingdom
Taiwan
Brazil
India
Switzerland
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Hong Kong
Australia
Sweden
Venezuela
Geometric
Weights
(*)
23.17%
17.88%
13.61%
13.02%
6.94%
4.22%
3.57%
2.57%
2.21%
2.14%
1.94%
1.79%
1.65%
1.48%
1.43%
1.32%
0.70%
0.35%
100.00%
Local currency per US$ 100.00 (annual average)

2013
2014
2015
2016
CNY
614.76
616.13
628.34
658.15
EUR
75.29
75.27
90.09
91.19
CAD
103.02
110.45
127.91
140.99
MXN
1,276.59
1,331.18
1,587.51
1,850.11
JPY
9,759.38
10,588.75
12,103.77 11,836.34
KRW 109,422.31 105,276.34 113,099.29 120,895.31
GBP
63.91
60.70
65.43
69.59
TWD
2,967.68
3,030.83
3,175.09
3,346.99
BRL
215.84
235.44
333.61
406.08
INR
5,855.02
6,102.03
6,411.86
6,802.91
CHF
92.69
91.55
96.28
100.92
SGD
125.11
126.70
137.46
142.34
MYR
314.91
327.14
390.56
425.98
THB
3,071.16
3,246.87
3,425.02
3,593.25
HKD
775.65
775.45
775.24
779.46
AUD
103.31
110.81
132.93
142.36
SEK
651.43
686.58
843.25
853.01
VEB
606.26
628.42
628.42
628.42
Nominal USD Index 2014=100

2013
2014
2015
2016
99.78
100.00
101.98
106.82
100.02
100.00
119.69
121.15
93.27
100.00
115.81
127.65
95.90
100.00
119.26
138.98
92.17
100.00
114.31
111.78
103.94
100.00
107.43
114.84
105.29
100.00
107.79
114.65
97.92
100.00
104.76
110.43
91.68
100.00
141.70
172.48
95.95
100.00
105.08
111.49
101.24
100.00
105.17
110.24
98.74
100.00
108.49
112.34
96.26
100.00
119.39
130.21
94.59
100.00
105.49
110.67
100.03
100.00
99.97
100.52
93.23
100.00
119.96
128.47
94.88
100.00
122.82
124.24
96.47
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.65
100.00
112.13
119.22
0.77%
2.41%
12.13%
6.32%
109.69
100.00
52.91
34.79
-2.70%
-8.83%
-47.09%
-34.26%
-3.505
-3.666
-3.881
-5.422
Nominal USD revaluation

Brent spot price ($/bbl)
$108.56
$98.97
$52.37
$34.43
Nominal crude oil depreciation (Brent)
Depreciation of oil / dollar revaluation (times)
(*) Currency weighted by foreign trade with the US in 2014 (review Oct'15)
Latest data
Own estimate - Last actual data: February 5, 2016
Also see: The Dollar in the U.S. International Transactions (USIT) Model
3/4
On the next page see Addendums:
Addendums
The world economy will grow 3.5% in 2016, from 3.0% growth in 2015, and increasing rates to 3.9% in 2019/2020.
India replaces China as the main driver of global GDP growth.
Global oil consumption will grow 1.41 mbpd in 2016, from growth (revised upwards) of 1.35 mbpd in 2015
For the period 2017/2021 growth in oil demand is estimated from a minimum of 1.52 mbpd, and a maximum of 1.67 mbpd over previous year.
The intensity of oil consumption per unit of real GDP is estimated to continue to fall at a rate of around 2% annually.
The International Monetary Fund has updated its World Economic Outlook (WEO)
The following table summarizes the Real GDP Growth, based data in constant domestic currency, with the following comments:
1. The aggregate growth by region / class has been obtained using as weights the GDP based on purchasing-power-parity of 2009.
2. The growth estimate for 2021 is our own estimate.
3. For several countries the last real data refers to the year 2013, instead of 2014
4. In the group of OECD countries they have been added Guam, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands
5. It have been added or broken down GDP growth data for the following countries / islands / administrative divisions: American Samoa, Aruba,
Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Faroe Islands, French Guiana and Polynesia, Gibraltar, Greenland, Guadeloupe, Guam, Falkland (Malvinas)
Islands, Korea (North), Martinique, Nauru, Netherlands Antilles, New Caledonia, Niue, Palestinian Territories, Puerto Rico, Reunion, Saint Helena,
Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Somalia, Turks and Caicos Islands, Virgin Islands (US and British), Wake Island, and the Western Sahara.
6. Consequently, growth for the aggregate data could not match that reported by the IMF
Real GDP YoY
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
North America
2.85% 1.95% 2.38% 1.52%
2.39%
2.43%
Central & South America
5.90% 5.04% 2.90% 3.23%
0.96% -0.65%
Europe
2.59% 2.18% -0.19% 0.56%
1.56%
1.94%
Eurasia
4.48% 4.85% 3.45% 2.14%
0.94% -2.66%
Middle East
5.43% 5.68% 2.60% 2.06%
2.74%
1.54%
Africa
5.55% 1.12% 5.06% 3.56%
3.46%
3.57%
Asia & Oceania
8.41% 6.09% 5.58% 5.72%
5.48%
5.33%
World
5.31% 4.01% 3.26% 3.20%
3.32%
3.03%
Latest data
2015 / 2020 = IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2015
Own estimate
Breakdown by group of countries
OECD Real GDP at PPP Billion
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(2009) USD
OECD
3.02% 1.95% 1.32% 1.20%
1.83%
2.10%
1 Australia
2.25% 2.72% 3.60% 2.07%
2.73%
2.37%
4 Canada
3.37% 2.96% 1.92% 2.00%
2.44%
1.04%
10 France
1.97% 2.08% 0.18% 0.66%
0.18%
1.16%
11 Germany
3.95% 3.72% 0.61% 0.41%
1.58%
1.51%
17 Italy
1.71% 0.59% -2.77% -1.70% -0.43%
0.80%
18 Japan
4.71% -0.45% 1.74% 1.59% -0.10%
0.59%
19 Korea, South
6.50% 3.68% 2.29% 2.90%
3.31%
2.66%
21 Mexico
5.11% 4.04% 4.02% 1.39%
2.14%
2.31%
22 Netherlands
1.40% 1.66% -1.06% -0.49%
1.01%
1.80%
25 Poland
3.70% 4.76% 1.76% 1.73%
3.44%
3.53%
29 Spain
0.02% -0.62% -2.09% -1.23%
1.39%
3.07%
32 Turkey
9.16% 8.77% 2.13% 4.19%
2.91%
3.04%
33 United Kingdom
1.91% 1.65% 0.66% 1.66%
2.99%
2.52%
34 United States
2.53% 1.60% 2.22% 1.49%
2.43%
2.57%
Other OECD
2.00% 1.61% 0.38% 0.77%
1.67%
2.34%
OECD
3.02% 1.95% 1.32% 1.20%
1.83%
2.10%
Latest data
Own estimate
OPEC Real GDP at PPP Billion
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(2009) USD
OPEC
5.20% 4.20% 4.35% 2.28%
2.56%
1.45%
Algeria
3.62% 2.83% 2.61% 2.80%
3.80%
3.01%
Angola
3.41% 3.92% 5.16% 6.80%
4.80%
3.49%
Ecuador
3.52% 7.87% 5.22% 4.64%
3.80% -0.62%
Iran
6.58% 3.75% -6.61% -1.91%
4.34%
0.83%
Iraq
6.40% 7.55% 13.94% 6.57% -2.12%
0.03%
Kuwait
-2.37% 10.60% 7.67% 0.82%
0.14%
1.17%
Libya
5.02% -62.08% 104.49% -13.55% -24.03% -6.09%
Nigeria
9.97% 4.89% 4.28% 5.39%
6.31%
3.96%
Qatar
19.59% 13.38% 4.88% 4.58%
3.98%
4.70%
Saudi Arabia
4.76% 9.96% 5.38% 2.67%
3.47%
3.43%
1.64% 4.89% 7.22% 4.32%
4.57%
3.00%
Venezuela
-1.49% 4.18% 5.63% 1.34% -4.00% -10.00%
OPEC
5.20% 4.20% 4.35% 2.28%
2.56%
1.45%
Latest data
Own estimate
Non-OPEC/OECD Real GDP at
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
PPP Billion (2009) USD
Non-OECD / non-OPEC
8.01% 6.28% 5.18% 5.39%
4.91%
4.15%
Argentina
9.45% 8.39% 0.80% 2.89%
0.46%
0.41%
Brazil
7.57% 3.92% 1.76% 2.74%
0.14% -3.03%
China
10.60% 9.50% 7.75% 7.69%
7.30%
6.81%
Colombia
3.97% 6.59% 4.04% 4.94%
4.55%
2.50%
Egypt
5.15% 1.76% 2.23% 2.10%
2.16%
4.19%
India
10.26% 6.64% 5.08% 6.90%
7.29%
7.26%
Indonesia
6.38% 6.17% 6.03% 5.58%
5.02%
4.66%
Malaysia
7.53% 5.29% 5.47% 4.71%
5.99%
4.70%
Pakistan
2.58% 3.62% 3.84% 3.65%
4.03%
4.24%
Russia
4.50% 4.30% 3.40% 1.30%
0.60% -3.83%
South Africa
3.04% 3.21% 2.22% 2.21%
1.52%
1.40%
Singapore
15.24% 6.21% 3.41% 4.44%
2.92%
2.20%
Taiwan
10.63% 3.80% 2.06% 2.23%
3.77%
2.24%
Thailand
7.51% 0.83% 7.32% 2.81%
0.87%
2.49%
Other
5.33% 4.22% 4.00% 4.57%
3.77%
3.12%
Non-OECD / non-OPEC
8.01% 6.28% 5.18% 5.39%
4.91%
4.15%
Latest data
Own estimate
2016
2.75%
0.34%
2.00%
0.49%
3.52%
4.15%
5.35%
3.50%
2017
2.80%
2.16%
2.08%
1.98%
3.68%
4.66%
5.30%
3.75%
2018
2.71%
2.26%
2.03%
2.45%
3.68%
4.82%
5.45%
3.84%
2019
2.33%
2.48%
2.02%
2.51%
3.77%
4.89%
5.64%
3.90%
2020
2.11%
2.55%
2.01%
2.55%
3.77%
5.08%
5.66%
3.90%
2021
2.25%
2.26%
1.95%
2.34%
3.48%
4.50%
5.01%
3.59%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2.30%
2.85%
1.66%
1.46%
1.57%
1.28%
1.01%
3.16%
2.80%
1.86%
3.50%
2.54%
2.88%
2.23%
2.84%
2.19%
2.30%
2.33%
3.06%
2.41%
1.65%
1.51%
1.15%
0.45%
3.59%
3.13%
1.94%
3.58%
2.23%
3.69%
2.21%
2.80%
2.38%
2.33%
2.28%
2.97%
2.33%
1.74%
1.30%
1.10%
0.66%
3.57%
3.22%
1.86%
3.56%
2.01%
3.49%
2.24%
2.68%
2.29%
2.28%
2.14%
2.94%
2.14%
1.86%
1.30%
1.05%
0.91%
3.58%
3.31%
1.96%
3.57%
1.90%
3.48%
2.15%
2.22%
2.27%
2.14%
2.01%
2.84%
2.01%
1.86%
1.27%
1.00%
0.72%
3.57%
3.33%
2.12%
3.60%
1.78%
3.48%
2.12%
1.96%
2.20%
2.01%
2.03%
2.76%
2.06%
1.75%
1.27%
1.03%
0.73%
3.34%
3.08%
1.93%
3.34%
1.84%
3.27%
2.07%
2.16%
2.04%
2.03%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
3.03%
3.88%
3.52%
0.06%
4.36%
7.05%
2.52%
1.97%
4.29%
4.95%
2.21%
3.13%
-6.00%
3.03%
3.45%
3.90%
3.77%
0.61%
3.99%
8.11%
2.72%
5.98%
4.54%
4.17%
2.88%
3.26%
-4.50%
3.45%
3.68%
3.74%
4.25%
1.24%
4.17%
7.60%
2.72%
8.50%
4.72%
3.64%
3.02%
3.46%
-3.00%
3.68%
3.93%
3.60%
4.66%
1.50%
4.38%
7.53%
2.93%
9.28%
4.91%
3.29%
3.10%
3.64%
-1.00%
3.93%
4.09%
3.49%
5.18%
1.84%
4.38%
7.15%
2.94%
13.52%
5.10%
2.78%
3.18%
3.82%
0.00%
4.09%
3.62%
3.36%
4.30%
1.45%
3.96%
6.46%
2.72%
8.69%
4.47%
3.04%
2.91%
3.39%
-1.42%
3.62%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
4.69%
-0.74%
-1.04%
6.30%
2.77%
4.26%
7.45%
5.10%
4.50%
4.50%
-0.63%
1.34%
2.92%
2.61%
3.21%
4.37%
4.69%
5.10%
0.00%
2.26%
6.00%
3.21%
4.48%
7.54%
5.50%
5.00%
4.50%
1.00%
2.11%
3.22%
2.87%
3.57%
4.83%
5.10%
5.27%
0.14%
2.36%
6.10%
3.57%
4.68%
7.65%
5.80%
5.00%
5.20%
1.50%
2.51%
3.16%
3.06%
3.40%
4.85%
5.27%
5.42%
0.21%
2.45%
6.33%
3.91%
4.96%
7.70%
6.00%
5.00%
5.20%
1.50%
2.59%
3.24%
3.09%
3.32%
4.88%
5.42%
5.47%
0.23%
2.53%
6.33%
4.08%
5.03%
7.74%
6.00%
5.00%
5.20%
1.50%
2.60%
3.25%
3.16%
3.18%
4.93%
5.47%
4.86%
0.19%
2.33%
5.55%
3.57%
4.45%
6.65%
5.28%
4.54%
4.65%
1.41%
2.41%
3.03%
2.91%
3.10%
4.48%
4.86%
The following table shows World Oil Consumption, in thousands of barrels of oil per day, based on the data of real GDP growth and other assumptions:
Total Petroleum Consumption (000)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
bpd
North America
23,556 23,317 22,939 23,448
23,492
23,751
6,481
6,703
6,965
7,085
7,249
7,301
Europe
15,367 14,914 14,431 14,279
14,156
14,309
Eurasia
4,329
4,668
4,644
4,688
4,909
4,825
Middle East
7,405
7,643
7,984
8,078
8,361
8,561
Africa
3,537
3,448
3,609
3,600
3,712
3,865
Asia & Oceania
27,482 28,409 29,760 30,098
30,566
31,179
World
88,157 89,102 90,331 91,276
92,446
93,791
Annual change
3,186
944
1,229
944
1,170
1,346
Previous estimate
88,157 89,102 90,331 91,276
92,446
93,622
Estimate difference
0
-0
-0
-0
-0
170
Latest data
2015 / 2016 = Preliminary estimate
2017 / 2021 = Forecast of petroleum consumption
Breakdown by group of countries
OECD Petroleum Consumption
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(000) bpd
OECD
46,939 46,331 45,877 46,032
45,755
46,226
1 Australia
1,005
1,045
1,077
1,086
1,097
1,142
4 Canada
2,283
2,310
2,351
2,432
2,413
2,380
10 France
1,833
1,792
1,771
1,765
1,711
1,728
11 Germany
2,467
2,391
2,388
2,400
2,406
2,430
17 Italy
1,544
1,493
1,369
1,314
1,238
1,251
18 Japan
4,429
4,445
4,696
4,534
4,301
4,186
19 Korea, South
2,269
2,277
2,329
2,331
2,382
2,475
21 Mexico
2,080
2,113
2,085
2,045
1,966
1,919
22 Netherlands
1,020
1,019
1,011
986
963
973
25 Poland
565
557
527
510
512
517
29 Spain
1,441
1,384
1,300
1,204
1,213
1,225
32 Turkey
650
655
688
718
721
741
33 United Kingdom
1,620
1,577
1,528
1,506
1,509
1,524
34 United States
19,180 18,882 18,490 18,959
19,104
19,442
OECD
46,939 46,331 45,877 46,032
45,755
46,226
Annual change
630
-608
-454
155
-278
471
Previous estimate
46,952 46,330 45,878 46,033
45,717
46,006
Estimate difference
-13
1
-1
-1
38
219
Latest data
2017 / 2021 = Forecast of oil consumption
OPEC Petroleum Consumption
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(000) bpd
OPEC
8,248
8,374
8,825
9,009
9,315
9,548
Algeria
354
349
377
390
410
436
Angola
104
107
112
112
117
124
Ecuador
243
244
250
254
256
256
Iran
1,811
1,781
1,863
1,885
1,897
1,898
Iraq
641
668
734
750
788
817
Kuwait
397
431
455
467
491
510
Libya
331
182
238
242
245
250
Nigeria
283
288
279
280
286
295
Qatar
199
201
226
230
245
257
Saudi Arabia
2,580
2,760
2,881
2,960
3,105
3,212
615
650
679
694
720
740
Venezuela
688
713
731
745
752
753
OPEC
8,248
8,374
8,825
9,009
9,315
9,548
Annual change
191
126
451
183
306
233
Previous estimate
8,248
8,374
8,826
9,009
9,315
9,560
Estimate difference
0
0
-1
-1
-0
-12
Latest data
2017 / 2021 = Forecast of oil consumption
Other Petroleum Consumption
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
(000) bpd
Non-OECD / non-OPEC
32,971 34,397 35,629 36,235
37,377
38,018
Argentina
709
729
742
769
785
794
Brazil
2,699
2,778
2,923
3,002
3,145
3,145
China
8,938
9,506 10,175 10,479
10,850
11,180
Colombia
270
294
321
324
335
343
Egypt
706
710
743
752
774
807
India
3,305
3,463
3,618
3,660
3,780
3,970
Indonesia
1,487
1,572
1,695
1,716
1,778
1,822
Malaysia
631
673
669
679
689
691
Pakistan
416
412
424
433
438
439
Russia
3,135
3,421
3,445
3,493
3,556
3,451
South Africa
584
616
638
612
626
647
Singapore
1,149
1,214
1,223
1,238
1,265
1,278
Taiwan
1,020
942
934
974
967
952
Thailand
1,074
1,108
1,151
1,170
1,189
1,196
Other
6,847
6,958
6,928
6,932
7,201
7,302
Non-OECD / non-OPEC
32,971 34,397 35,629 36,235
37,377
38,018
Annual change
2,365
1,426
1,232
606
1,142
641
Previous estimate
32,957 34,398 35,627 36,233
37,414
38,056
Estimate difference
13
-1
1
1
-37
-38
Latest data
2015 / 2016 = Preliminary estimate (October 2015 revision)
2017 / 2021 = Forecast of petroleum consumption (October 2015 revision)
2016
23,915
7,384
14,320
4,842
8,891
4,016
31,832
95,199
1,407
94,930
269
2016
46,450
1,175
2,385
1,726
2,430
1,249
4,113
2,543
1,934
972
516
1,223
758
1,522
19,586
46,450
224
46,165
285
2016
9,904
462
130
258
1,934
859
536
255
303
271
3,364
771
759
9,904
356
9,919
-16
2016
38,845
807
3,176
11,480
353
842
4,140
1,883
700
445
3,405
667
1,301
951
1,218
7,478
38,845
827
38,845
-0
2017
2018
24,152
7,499
14,450
4,921
9,162
4,179
32,424
96,786
1,588
96,400
387
2017
24,422
7,635
14,439
4,960
9,425
4,287
33,286
98,454
1,668
98,032
422
2018
46,861
1,209
2,378
1,737
2,449
1,261
4,011
2,633
1,941
971
522
1,232
784
1,532
19,823
46,861
411
46,439
422
2017
47,299
1,237
2,389
1,729
2,447
1,262
4,108
2,680
1,958
969
520
1,225
794
1,529
20,065
47,299
438
46,894
406
2018
10,202
482
136
262
1,946
922
555
268
315
285
3,490
799
742
10,202
299
10,220
-18
2017
10,534
510
142
265
1,955
929
583
270
320
298
3,646
828
791
10,534
332
10,518
16
2018
39,723
814
3,261
11,733
363
878
4,313
1,936
705
447
3,408
686
1,329
954
1,240
7,657
39,723
878
39,740
-17
40,621
840
3,293
12,157
373
899
4,446
1,991
715
455
3,396
701
1,342
952
1,252
7,809
40,621
898
40,620
1
2019
2020
2021
24,742
7,704
14,456
4,961
9,634
4,388
34,150
100,035
1,581
99,836
200
25,340
7,697
14,450
4,895
9,787
4,447
34,985
101,601
1,566
101,801
-200
26,486
7,597
14,412
4,781
9,892
4,435
35,516
103,118
1,517
103,943
-825
2019
2020
2021
47,813
1,264
2,399
1,723
2,450
1,269
4,181
2,736
1,996
967
520
1,226
807
1,532
20,337
47,813
513
47,538
274
2019
10,780
531
148
269
1,947
933
603
258
328
310
3,786
858
808
10,780
246
10,823
-43
2019
41,443
856
3,296
12,584
385
924
4,595
2,046
724
459
3,351
717
1,362
948
1,262
7,935
41,443
822
41,475
-32
48,566
1,287
2,436
1,710
2,457
1,271
4,261
2,778
2,045
965
519
1,224
818
1,532
20,848
48,566
753
48,352
214
2020
49,760
1,305
2,521
1,688
2,469
1,259
4,299
2,805
2,098
961
514
1,221
828
1,529
21,856
49,760
1,194
49,330
431
2021
10,938
550
154
270
1,948
916
618
232
334
322
3,902
884
807
10,938
159
11,128
-190
2020
10,967
569
155
265
1,961
894
628
182
334
336
3,980
898
764
10,967
28
11,435
-468
2021
42,097
867
3,253
13,029
395
944
4,733
2,091
732
462
3,270
724
1,376
943
1,269
8,008
42,097
654
42,321
-224
42,391
874
3,184
13,348
400
956
4,808
2,115
737
463
3,162
724
1,384
934
1,278
8,027
42,391
294
43,179
-788
The following table summarizes the Consumption of Petroleum and Other Liquids (thousands of bpd) per each US$ 1,000 million of real GDP
Consumption (000 bpd) per Billion
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
(2009) USD of Real GDP
North America
1.316
1.278
1.228
1.236
1.210
1.194
1.170
1.150
1.132
1.121
1.124
1.149
1.030
1.014
1.024
1.009
1.022
1.036
1.045
1.038
1.034
1.018
0.992
0.957
Europe
0.824
0.782
0.758
0.746
0.728
0.722
0.709
0.700
0.686
0.673
0.660
0.645
Eurasia
1.003
1.032
0.992
0.981
1.017
1.027
1.026
1.022
1.006
0.981
0.944
0.901
Middle East
1.639
1.601
1.630
1.616
1.628
1.642
1.647
1.637
1.624
1.600
1.566
1.530
Africa
0.789
0.760
0.758
0.730
0.727
0.731
0.729
0.725
0.710
0.693
0.668
0.637
Asia & Oceania
0.863
0.841
0.834
0.798
0.768
0.744
0.721
0.697
0.679
0.659
0.639
0.618
World
1.002
0.973
0.956
0.936
0.917
0.903
0.886
0.868
0.850
0.831
0.813
0.796
YoY
-1.49% -2.83% -1.82% -2.09% -1.97%
-1.53%
-1.93%
-2.01%
-2.04%
-2.21%
-2.25%
-2.03%
Also see:
Global & Australian Forecasts January 2016 pdf, 14 pages (NAB)
Global Economic Prospects (GEP), January 2016 pdf, 286 pages (WB)
Press release
Highlights pdf, 4 pages
Chapter 1 - Global outlook pdf, 44 pages
OECD Economic Outlook (online 311 pages)

Handout for the press pdf, 11 pages
OECD Economic outlook, analysis and forecasts
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Brazil
Canada
Chile
China
Colombia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Euro area
Finland
France
MNI Spotlight
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Latvia
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Russian Federation
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
South Africa
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
IMF - World Economic Outlook, January 2016 update pdf, 6 pages
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2015 pdf, 230 pages

IMF - Regional Economic Outlook
Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) pdf, 76 pages
Sub-Saharan Africa pdf, 134 pages
Middle East and Central Asia pdf, 102 pages
Asia and Pacific pdf, 19 pages
Western Hemisphere pdf, 110 pages
Also see: Commodities: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies pdf, 60 pages (IMF, working paper)
IMF / WB - Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016 pdf, 307 pages

Poverty Forecasts
Monitoring Global Development Progress
IEA - Medium Term Energy Efficiency - Market Report 2015 pdf, 250 pages
IEA World Energy Outlook 2015 South-East Asia pdf, 139 pages

Countries with petroleum supplies higher to 24,500 bpd in 2016
Total Supply (000) bpd
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
North America
16,109 16,672 17,894 19,340 21,287 22,149 21,739 21,758
Canada
3,441 3,596 3,856 4,072 4,394 4,496 4,547 4,597
Mexico
2,979 2,959 2,941 2,916 2,822 2,628 2,595 2,533
United States
9,690 10,117 11,097 12,352 14,071 15,025 14,598 14,628
7,889 8,062 8,003 8,118 8,404 8,568 8,653 8,645
Argentina
789
764
723
707
717
727
736
749
Bolivia
48
49
57
64
67
68
69
70
Brazil
2,721 2,697 2,668 2,708 2,962 3,153 3,192 3,213
Colombia
806
938
969 1,028 1,016 1,031 1,026 1,007
Cuba
52
54
51
49
49
49
49
49
Ecuador
489
499
503
526
556
545
540
534
Peru
164
160
162
176
181
168
182
190
Trinidad and Tobago
146
138
118
117
115
113
113
111
Venezuela
2,599 2,684 2,685 2,685 2,685 2,658 2,686 2,660
Europe
4,659 4,309 3,994 3,816 3,869 3,918 3,696 3,579
Austria
29
31
29
25
26
27
27
29
Denmark
250
226
207
181
171
163
162
164
France
76
76
65
62
61
62
62
63
Germany
140
158
161
163
159
156
153
151
Italy
157
153
151
161
170
161
157
155
Netherlands
34
41
43
40
42
36
33
30
Netherlands (Offshore)
20
18
17
18
23
31
39
47
Norway
2,146 2,051 1,927 1,847 1,898 1,922 1,838 1,747
Poland
29
28
28
34
39
37
37
36
Romania
107
106
101
104
103
99
96
95
Serbia
24
21
20
21
21
24
27
31
Spain
29
28
34
41
40
40
38
37
Turkey
58
57
59
60
62
62
63
64
United Kingdom
88
83
83
87
87
87
86
87
United Kingdom (Offshore)
1,319 1,085
923
828
821
866
733
696
Eurasia
13,366 13,492 13,608 13,782 13,902 14,026 13,933 13,829
Azerbaijan
1,044
993
932
881
857
873
874
861
Belarus
32
31
30
31
30
28
30
30
Kazakhstan
1,609 1,637 1,606 1,658 1,719 1,717 1,722 1,747
Russia
10,280 10,401 10,589 10,757 10,847 10,948 10,848 10,743
Turkmenistan
203
224
245
260
273
280
286
286
Ukraine
83
79
81
75
67
65
59
51
Uzbekistan
92
103
103
95
84
88
85
80
Middle East
26,218 27,670 27,881 27,469 27,841 29,288 30,588 31,422
Bahrain
47
48
55
61
64
65
66
68
Iran
4,243 4,215 3,521 3,194 3,380 3,497 3,939 4,289
Iraq
2,398 2,623 2,979 3,050 3,365 3,939 4,368 4,509
Kuwait
2,449 2,680 2,784 2,799 2,767 2,930 2,985 3,074
Oman
869
892
924
946
952 1,001
976
967
Qatar
1,787 1,936 2,033 2,067 2,055 2,048 2,140 2,228
Saudi Arabia
10,907 11,469 11,842 11,698 11,624 12,080 12,305 12,427
2,815 3,215 3,401 3,444 3,474 3,641 3,724 3,803
Yemen
281
217
169
131
125
47
74
49
Africa
10,679 9,280 9,915 9,242 8,736 8,548 8,870 9,148
Algeria
1,881 1,863 1,875 1,763 1,721 1,687 1,702 1,686
Angola
1,919 1,765 1,797 1,814 1,756 1,818 1,803 1,748
Cameroon
66
62
64
63
76
75
76
77
Chad
123
115
105
85
90
95
99
104
Congo (Brazzaville)
312
299
292
270
271
262
255
247
Cote dIvoire (IvoryCoast)
45
40
39
38
37
33
30
27
Egypt
735
718
710
703
703
707
694
682
Equatorial Guinea
323
299
310
291
291
271
253
245
Gabon
245
241
230
220
220
213
210
205
Ghana
8
78
79
99
106
114
143
249
Libya
1,785
506 1,482
986
516
460
633
856
Nigeria
2,459 2,555 2,525 2,371 2,428 2,299 2,451 2,497
South Africa
182
184
183
183
162
160
157
154
Sudan and South Sudan
489
455
114
249
261
258
257
253
Tunisia
79
67
66
64
53
52
62
74
Asia & Oceania
9,159 9,050 9,146 9,205 9,283 9,429 9,500 9,527
Australia
604
531
518
442
472
421
444
464
Brunei
158
169
159
136
127
126
122
121
China
4,377 4,393 4,465 4,561 4,598 4,700 4,698 4,716
India
971 1,008 1,017 1,016 1,011 1,010 1,021 1,034
Indonesia
1,042 1,025
985
926
917
914
932
921
Japan
143
137
128
138
137
137
136
136
Korea, South
58
60
75
79
79
79
79
79
Malaysia
734
670
690
670
697
747
768
756
New Zealand
61
52
48
42
49
51
53
56
Pakistan
69
70
76
85
98
99
99
100
Papua New Guinea
31
30
28
28
34
52
67
81
Philippines
39
40
36
41
44
43
43
42
Singapore
22
23
25
25
25
25
25
25
Taiwan
28
26
28
28
28
28
28
28
Thailand
392
384
407
523
522
533
537
543
Timor-Leste (East Timor)
88
84
80
79
77
72
66
61
Vietnam
313
317
348
349
325
354
347
331
World
88,080 88,536 90,441 90,973 93,322 95,926 96,978 97,908
Annual Change
2,357
456 1,906
531 2,349 2,604 1,052
929
Latest data - Total, continental and world, including all countries with liquids and / or oil refining supply
2016 / 2017 data source = US EIA / STEO estimate, except OPEC supply is our own estimate.
2018 / 2022 data source = Own estimate, based on the monthly forecast model at country level
2018
21,847
4,667
2,472
14,708
8,630
767
71
3,235
980
49
531
195
110
2,631
3,456
30
165
63
148
152
30
55
1,645
36
95
35
37
66
87
665
13,784
848
30
1,759
10,710
285
43
76
32,298
68
4,595
4,647
3,187
959
2,324
12,580
3,903
27
9,427
1,664
1,704
77
108
239
24
671
239
201
361
1,071
2,537
151
249
86
9,567
489
120
4,747
1,042
906
136
79
744
58
100
96
41
25
28
549
56
318
99,010
1,102
2019
22,001
4,732
2,410
14,859
8,615
785
71
3,259
956
49
527
201
108
2,600
3,331
31
166
63
146
149
29
62
1,534
35
96
39
37
67
87
641
13,732
834
30
1,765
10,676
285
35
72
33,168
68
4,870
4,782
3,308
952
2,415
12,744
4,011
10
9,700
1,641
1,665
77
112
231
21
658
234
198
480
1,279
2,568
148
245
98
9,627
526
119
4,777
1,050
899
136
79
731
61
100
110
41
25
28
556
51
306
100,175
1,165
2020
22,139
4,793
2,348
14,997
8,601
802
71
3,281
932
49
524
207
106
2,569
3,203
32
166
63
144
146
29
70
1,425
35
96
43
37
67
87
614
13,671
821
30
1,773
10,629
286
27
68
34,046
68
5,149
4,917
3,427
943
2,507
12,905
4,116
5
9,973
1,618
1,625
77
116
223
18
646
228
194
598
1,488
2,601
145
241
110
9,689
563
118
4,805
1,059
895
136
79
718
64
100
125
41
25
28
563
47
293
101,321
1,147
2021
22,270
4,855
2,286
15,129
8,585
819
71
3,304
908
49
520
212
104
2,538
3,078
33
166
63
142
143
29
78
1,318
35
96
47
37
67
87
587
13,614
809
30
1,783
10,582
286
20
64
34,929
68
5,433
5,053
3,545
935
2,598
13,064
4,221
3
10,245
1,593
1,584
77
120
215
15
633
222
190
715
1,700
2,634
142
238
122
9,751
601
118
4,832
1,067
890
136
79
705
66
100
139
41
25
28
570
42
281
102,471
1,150
2022
22,402
4,917
2,224
15,261
8,570
836
71
3,327
883
49
517
218
102
2,507
2,954
34
166
63
140
141
29
85
1,210
37
96
51
37
67
87
561
13,562
797
30
1,792
10,537
288
15
61
35,812
68
5,717
5,188
3,663
927
2,690
13,223
4,325
2
10,517
1,570
1,543
77
124
207
12
620
216
186
833
1,910
2,667
139
234
134
9,813
638
118
4,860
1,076
885
136
79
691
69
100
153
41
25
28
577
37
269
103,630
1,159
Note: Other specific oil production forecasts of countries in this working paper, they could not match the underlying data, because:
World petroleum supply included in the overall table, adds to the crude oil and condensate production, NGL production fields, other liquids
such as bio-fuels and oxygenated additives, and volumetric gain of oil refining.
The projections are based on a model at the country level
Other specific oil production forecasts of countries included in this working paper include only crude oil and condensate
The projections are based on a model sedimentary basin level
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1) Summary - Forecast international prices of crude oil

2) Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)

This table has been updated

WTI Crude Oil

Crude Oil Futures Quotes (CME Group)

OPEC Daily Basket Price (News) Historical data

Oman Crude Oil DME (WSJ)

Brent Crude Oil

Brent Crude Futures (ICE)

Ocean Freight Rates

Brent / WTI price differentials (ICE)

High oil inventories

Future market in a normal contango

i. World Petroleum Consumption

ii. World Petroleum Supply

Summary estimate of global petroleum supply

Links to data sources:

Oil & Gas data

Exxon Mobil - The Outlook for Energy

Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI)

3) US Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures

i. Evolution of the consumer price index

4) WTI Spot Price FOB at Constant (2009) Dollars

ii. Impact of the oversupply of OPEC crude oil in price differentials

Spot price US$ per barrel

This table has been updated

iii. Worldwide Rig Count

Worldwide rig count (*)

Industrial Production Index (Federal Reserve)

Industrial Production Index (Source: Federal Reserve and own estimate)

This Week in Petroleum (EIA)

EIA Monthly Data

Drilling Productivity Report - Full report pdf, 11 pages

U.S. International Trade

Total energy-related petroleum

-8.9% 272,807,179 -12.9% 96.95

-1.4% 125,819,431 -48.9% 47.26

Crude oil (000))

This table has been updated on February 5, 2016

Mining, Oil, and Gas Field Machinery Manufacturing

S&P 500 Energy

Note: Impact of the revaluation of US dollar in the international oil price

Local currency per US$ 100.00 (annual average)

Nominal USD Index 2014=100

Nominal USD revaluation

On the next page see Addendums:

OECD Economic Outlook (online 311 pages)

IMF - World Economic Outlook, January 2016 update pdf, 6 pages

IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2015 pdf, 230 pages

IMF / WB - Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016 pdf, 307 pages

World Petroleum Supply Update January 2016

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