PRECIPITACIONES

CONFIABILIDAD DE INFORMACON
PRECIPITACIONES
INFORMACION PLUVIOMETRICA:
ESTACION:

LAMBAYEQUE

LATITUD:

064353.5

LONGITUD:

795426

CATEGORIA:

CP

m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

[Escriba texto]

AOS
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998

Pgina 1

Q
3.7
8.5
22.1
7.1
19.7
5.7
11.7
2.4
9.1
3.9
3.6
14.7
15.2
40.8
6
32
116

PRECIPITACIONES
140
120
100
80

Pmax. 24h Anuales (mm)

60
40
20
0
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

AOS DE LA ESTACION LAMBAYEQUE

ORDENAMIENTO DE LA PRECIPITACIONES
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

[Escriba texto]

Q
2.40
3.60
3.70
3.90
5.70
6.00
7.10
8.50
9.10
11.70
14.70
15.20
19.70
22.10
32.00
40.80
116.00

Pgina 2

PRECIPITACIONES

DISTRIBUCIONES TEORICAS
I.

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL:
A. AJUSTE MEDIANTE EL ESTADISTICO SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV

OBTENCIN DEL ESTADSTICO S-K Y VERIFICACIN

DE LA CONFIABILIDAD
Para la distribucin normal con N = 17 datos de
Precipitacin

mxima

24h

de

la

estacin

Udima,

procedemos a Calcular el estadstico S-k, con un nivel de

significancia de 0.05.

=0 . 05

15

0.34

17

S-K

20

0.29

1517 0.34( SK )
=
1720 ( SK ) 0.29
SK =0.32

[Escriba texto]

Pgina 3

PRECIPITACIONES

[Escriba texto]

Pgina 4

 TABULACION
m

Q=x

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

2.40
3.60
3.70
3.90
5.70
6.00
7.10
8.50
9.10
11.70
14.70
15.20
19.70
22.10
32.00
40.80
116.00

SUMATORIA
PROMEDIO x

[Escriba texto]

322.200

-X

( - X)2

-16.55
-15.35
-15.25
-15.05
-13.25
-12.95
-11.85
-10.45
-9.85
-7.25
-4.25
-3.75
0.75
3.15
13.05
21.85
97.05

273.9999
235.7128
232.6522
226.5910
175.6404
167.7787
140.4922
109.2640
97.0804
52.6052
18.0875
14.0846
0.5581
9.9040
170.2257
477.2940
9418.1316
11820.102
4

18.953
VARIANZA

20.18885

Pgina 5

P(X) =
m/N+1

Z=( - X)/

0.0556
0.1111
0.1667
0.2222
0.2778
0.3333
0.3889
0.4444
0.5000
0.5556
0.6111
0.6667
0.7222
0.7778
0.8333
0.8889
0.9444

-0.81991
-0.76047
-0.75551
-0.74561
-0.65645
-0.64159
-0.58710
-0.51776
-0.48804
-0.35925
-0.21066
-0.18589
0.03700
0.15588
0.64625
1.08213
4.80696

0.20614
0.22349
0.22497
0.22795
0.25577
0.26057
0.27857
0.30231
0.31276
0.35970
0.41658
0.42626
0.51476
0.56194
0.74094
0.86040
1.00000

0.15058
0.11238
0.05830
0.00573
-0.02201
-0.07276
-0.11032
-0.14213
-0.18724
-0.19585
-0.19453
-0.24040
-0.20746
-0.21584
-0.09239
-0.02849
0.05555

0.15058
0.11238
0.05830
0.00573
0.02201
0.07276
0.11032
0.14213
0.18724
0.19585
0.19453
0.24040
0.20746
0.21584
0.09239
0.02849
0.05555

max=

0.24040
17

S-K =

0.32
0.05

N=

F(Z)

F(Z) - P(X) |F(Z) - P(X) |

II.

ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD: "DISTRIBUCION

GUMBELL

AOS

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998

3.7
8.5
22.1
7.1
19.7
5.7
11.7
2.4
9.1
3.9
3.6
14.7
15.2
40.8
6
32
116

ORDENAMIENTO DE LA PRECIPITACIONES
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
[Escriba texto]

Q
2.40
3.60
3.70
3.90
5.70
6.00
7.10
8.50
9.10
11.70
14.70
15.20
19.70
22.10
32.00
40.80
116.00
Pgina 6

 TABULACION
m

Q=x

1
2.40
2
3.60
3
3.70
4
3.90
5
5.70
6
6.00
7
7.10
8
8.50
9
9.10
10
11.70
11
14.70
12
15.20
13
19.70
14
22.10
15
32.00
16
40.80
17
116.00
SUMATORI
322.200
A
PROMEDIO
18.953
x
VARIANZA =S

[Escriba texto]

-X

( - X)2

-16.55 273.9999
-15.35 235.7128
-15.25 232.6522
-15.05 226.5910
-13.25 175.6404
-12.95 167.7787
-11.85 140.4922
-10.45 109.2640
-9.85
97.0804
-7.25
52.6052
-4.25
18.0875
-3.75
14.0846
0.75
0.5581
3.15
9.9040
13.05 170.2257
21.85 477.2940
97.05 9418.1316
11820.102
4

27.180

Pgina 7

u=X0.45S
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219
6.7219

6
=

21.1922
21.1922
*S
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922
21.1922

P(X)=m/N
+1

Y=(X u)/

F(Y) P(X)

|F(Z) - P(X)
|

0.0556
0.1111
0.1667
0.2222
0.2778
0.3333
0.3889
0.4444
0.5000
0.5556
0.6111
0.6667
0.7222
0.7778
0.8333
0.8889
0.9444

-0.20394
-0.14731
-0.14260
-0.13316
-0.04822
-0.03406
0.01784
0.08390
0.11222
0.23490
0.37646
0.40006
0.61240
0.72565
1.19280
1.60805
5.15652

0.29340
0.31389
0.31561
0.31904
0.35015
0.35535
0.37444
0.39871
0.40908
0.45355
0.50344
0.51156
0.58156
0.61631
0.73833
0.81850
0.99425

0.23784
0.20278
0.14894
0.09682
0.07237
0.02202
-0.01445
-0.04573
-0.09092
-0.10200
-0.10767
-0.15510
-0.14067
-0.16147
-0.09501
-0.07039
0.04981

0.23784
0.20278
0.14894
0.09682
0.07237
0.02202
0.01445
0.04573
0.09092
0.10200
0.10767
0.15510
0.14067
0.16147
0.09501
0.07039
0.04981

max=

0.23784

S-K =

0.32

N=

17

0.05

F(Y) e

DISTRIBUCIONES TEORICAS
OBTENCIN DEL ESTADSTICO S-K Y VERIFICACIN DE LA
CONFIABILIDAD
Para la distribucin normal con N = 17 datos de Precipitacin
mxima 24h de la estacin Udima, procedemos a Calcular el
estadstico S-k, con un nivel de significancia de 0.05.
1517 0.34( SK )
=
1720 ( SK ) 0.29
SK =0.32

ESTADISTICO
ANALISIS DE
CONFIABILIDAD
15

0.34

17

0.32

20

0.29

S-K CRITICO

1.36
N

S-K= 0.32

0.32984845

VERIFICACIN DE LA CONFIABILIDAD CALCULADA

ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD
CALCULADO

|F(Z) - P(X)|max.
0.23784

COMPARACION DE LA CONFIABILIDAD CALCULADA Y LA

ESTADISTICA
COMPARACOION

|F(Z) - P(X)|max. < S-K

LA INFORMACION ES CONFIABLE

NOTA: Al utilizar LA DISTRIBUCION GUMBELL se logra que

la informacion es confiable

[Escriba texto]

Pgina 8

I.

ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD: "DISTRIBUCION LOG

NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS

AOS

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998

3.7
8.5
22.1
7.1
19.7
5.7
11.7
2.4
9.1
3.9
3.6
14.7
15.2
40.8
6
32
116

ORDENAMIENTO DE LA PRECIPITACIONES
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
m

( -

[Escriba texto]

Uy=1/2*ln

Q
2.40
3.60
3.70
3.90
5.70
6.00
7.10
8.50
9.10
11.70
14.70
15.20
19.70
22.10
32.00
40.80
116.00
^2=l P(X)

Pgina 9

Z=(ln(

F( F(Y) |F(Z)

Cv
ln
=
= X)2 (x
x X
S/
)
X
1

2.4
0

3.6
0

3.7
0

3.9
0

5.7
0

6.0
0

7.1
0

8.5
0

9.1
0

10

11.
70

1
6.
5
5
1
5.
3
5
1
5.
2
5
1
5.
0
5
1
3.
2
5
1
2.
9
5
1
1.
8
5
1
0.
4
5
9.
8
5
7.
2
5

(x^2/1+C
v^2)

n(1+C
v^2)

=
m/N
+1

x) Z) P(X
P(X)|
Uy)/y
)

273. 0.
0.2 0.2
1.4
1.11 0.055
999 87
2.3833
1.4265 71 157
341
73
6
9
55
0
26
0

0.21
570

235. 1.
0.2 0.1
1.4
1.11 0.111
712 28
2.3833
1.0429 86 749
341
73
1
8
09
0
08
7

0.17
497

232. 1.
0.2 0.1
1.4
1.11 0.166
652 30
2.3833
1.0169 87 206
341
73
7
2
83
8
34
7

0.12
067

226. 1.
0.2 0.0
1.4
1.11 0.222
591 36
2.3833
0.9671 89 676
341
73
2
0
10
8
85
3

0.06
763

175. 1.
0.3 0.0
1.4
1.11 0.277
640 74
2.3833
0.6081 12 351
341
73
8
4
05
6
92
4

0.03
514

167. 1.
0.3
1.4
1.11 0.333
0.0
778 79
2.3833
0.5596 16
341
73
3
165
7
18
4
84
0

0.01
650

140. 1.
0.3
1.4
1.11 0.388
0.0
492 96
2.3833
0.4003 31
341
73
9
575
2
01
8
39
0

0.05
750

109. 2.
0.3
1.4
1.11 0.444
0.0
264 14
2.3833
0.2301 50
341
73
4
941
0
01
2
27
7

0.09
417

2.
0.3
97.0
1.4
1.11 0.500
0.1
20
2.3833
0.1655 58
804
341
73
0
415
83
9
49
1
2.
0.3
52.6
1.4
1.11 0.555 0.0721
0.1
45
2.3833
94
052
341
73
6
6
607
96
79
6

[Escriba texto]

Pgina 10

0.14
151
0.16
076

2.
0.4
14. 4. 18.0
1.4
1.11 0.611 0.2881
0.1
11
68
2.3833
37
70 2 875
341
73
1
1
732
78
83
5
8
2.
0.4
15. 3. 14.0
1.4
1.11 0.666 0.3197
0.2
12
72
2.3833
45
20 7 846
341
73
7
5
215
13
09
5
8
0.
2.
0.5
19.
0.55
1.4
1.11 0.722 0.5650
0.2
13
7
98
2.3833
10
70
81
341
73
2
9
112
5
06
96
6
3.
3.
0.5
22.
9.90
1.4
1.11 0.777 0.6738
0.2
14
1
09
2.3833
46
10
40
341
73
8
4
316
5
56
09
9
1
170. 3.
0.6
32. 3.
1.4
1.11 0.833 1.0240
0.1
15
225 46
2.3833
84
00 0
341
73
3
3
489
7
57
39
5
4
2
477. 3.
0.7
40. 1.
1.4
1.11 0.888 1.2538
0.0
16
294 70
2.3833
89
80 8
341
73
9
7
996
0
87
24
5
5
9
11
941 4.
0.8
7.
1.4
1.11 0.944 2.2424
0.0
17 6.0
8.13 75
2.3833
99
0
341
73
4
1
452
0
16 36
24
5
0
SU 32
118
MA 2.2
20.1
T.
00
024
PR 18.
0.2
max
OM 95
1.05
31 S-K
=
=
y = 702
.x
3
69
VARIANZA 27.1
N=
17 =
80
S

[Escriba texto]

Pgina 11

0.17
328
0.22
158
0.21
126
0.23
169
0.14
894
0.09
965
0.04
520

0.32
0.05

DISTRIBUCIONES TEORICAS
OBTENCIN DEL ESTADSTICO S-K Y VERIFICACIN DE LA
CONFIABILIDAD
Para la distribucin normal con N = 17 datos de Precipitacin
mxima 24h de la estacin Udima, procedemos a Calcular el
estadstico S-k, con un nivel de significancia de 0.05.
1517 0.34( SK )
=
1720 ( SK ) 0.29
SK =0.32

ESTADISTICO
ANALISIS DE
CONFIABILIDAD
15

0.34

17

0.32

20

0.29

S-K CRITICO

1.36
N

S-K= 0.32

0.32984845

VERIFICACIN DE LA CONFIABILIDAD CALCULADA

ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD
CALCULADO

|F(Z) - P(X)|max.
0.23169

COMPARACION DE LA CONFIABILIDAD CALCULADA Y LA

ESTADISTICA
COMPARACOION

|F(Z) - P(X)|max. < S-K

LA INFORMACION ES
CONFIABLE

NOTA: Al utilizar LA DISTRIBUCION LOG. NORMAL DE 2

PARAMETROS se a logrado que la informacion es confiable

[Escriba texto]

Pgina 12