Anexo B6- Analisis de Riesgo.

xls

Anexo N B 6
Crystal Ball Report - Full
Run preferences:
Number of trials run
Extreme speed
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level
Run statistics:
Total running time (sec)
Trials/second (average)
Random numbers per sec
Crystal Ball data:
Assumptions
Correlations
Correlated groups
Decision variables
Forecasts

10,000

95.00%

1.87
5,351
10,702

2
0
0
0
1
Forecasts

Forecast: VAN SOCIAL

Cell: I39

Summary:
Certainty level is 70.57%
Certainty range is from 0 to Infinito
Entire range is from -88,216,319 to 110,543,970
Base case is 14,978,978
After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is 267,350

Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Minimum
Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Forecast values
10,000
14,882,442
14,816,329
--26,735,028
7.15E+14
0.0360
2.97
1.80
-88,216,319
110,543,970
198,760,289
267,350

Forecast: VAN SOCIAL

Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Cell: I39
Forecast values
-88,216,319
-19,014,564
-8,025,035
434,002
7,933,796
14,813,830
21,799,418
28,777,306
37,454,516
49,379,808
110,543,970

End of Forecasts

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Anexo B6- Analisis de Riesgo.xls

Assumptions

Assumption: Beneficio
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: M45

1.00
0.10

Assumption: Inversin
Normal distribution with parameters:
Mean
Std. Dev.

Cell: P45

1.00
0.10

End of Assumptions
Sensitivity Charts

End of Sensitivity Charts

Scatter Chart

End of Scatter Charts

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