Está en la página 1de 11

Primera actividad: Graficar y seleccionar el o los modelos a aplicar

Producto M009 A
Mes
Venta
Ene10
6463
Feb'10
5830
Mar'10
6479
Abr`10
6300
May`10
6514
Jun`10
6331
Jul`10
6572
Ago`10
6577
Sep`10
6390
Oct`10
6603
Nov`10
6418
Dic`10
6634
Ene11
6634
Feb'11
6004
Mar'11
6665
Abr`11
6473
May`11
6732
Jun`11
6540
Jul`11
6786
Ago`11
6789
Sep`11
6579
Oct`11
6822
Nov`11
6634
Dic`11
6882
Ene12
6913
Feb'12
6272
Mar'12
6955
Abr`12
6750
May`12
7000
Jun`12
6780
Jul`12
6997
Ago`12
6975
Sep`12
6750
Oct`12
7005

Producto M009
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0

Patrn: Tendencia creciente

Modelo: Suavizado exponencial con inclusin de

modelos a aplicar

Segunda Actividad:
A0 =

6463

T0 =

16

Mes
Ene10
ucto M009
Feb'10
Mar'10
Abr`10
May`10
Jun`10
Jul`10
Ago`10
Sep`10
Oct`10
Nov`10
Dic`10
Ene11
Feb'11
Mar'11
Abr`11
May`11
Jun`11
xponencial con inclusin de tendencia Jul`11
Ago`11
Sep`11
Oct`11
Nov`11
Dic`11
Ene12
Feb'12
Mar'12
Abr`12
May`12
Jun`12
Jul`12
Ago`12
Sep`12
Oct`12

Total =
N Perodos
T0 =

Venta
6463
5830
6479
6300
6514
6331
6572
6577
6390
6603
6418
6634
6634
6004
6665
6473
6732
6540
6786
6789
6579
6822
6634
6882
6913
6272
6955
6750
7000
6780
6997
6975
6750
7005
542
33
16

=
=
At
6463
6477.40
6429.17
6447.12
6447.81
6470.70
6475.88
6505.91
6536.95
6549.79
6584.61
6601.40
6640.42
6679.87
6656.73
6700.73
6725.91
6777.54
6810.26
6868.07
6926.41
6963.97
7026.27
7069.96
7138.82
7210.90
7218.97
7296.07
7352.71
7434.60
7494.47
7576.26
7655.83
7712.92
7795.76

egunda Actividad: Variacin de parmetros

=
=

0.1
0.1
Tt
16
18.34
14.42
17.11
18.08
21.27
22.69
26.59
30.60
32.78
37.16
39.74
44.54
49.39
47.97
53.27
56.69
62.75
66.93
73.61
80.34
85.00
92.13
97.40
105.18
113.29
115.00
123.61
130.17
139.26
146.15
155.23
164.08
170.69
179.88

Ft

Et

6496
6444
6464
6466
6492
6499
6533
6568
6583
6622
6641
6685
6729
6705
6754
6783
6840
6877
6942
7007
7049
7118
7167
7244
7324
7334
7420
7483
7574
7641
7731
7820
7884
7976

-32.74
-613.58
14.76
-165.89
22.02
-167.57
39.50
9.45
-192.57
-18.77
-223.14
-50.96
-95.26
-700.70
-89.01
-309.60
-108.29
-337.19
-155.67
-217.75
-469.97
-296.40
-533.36
-362.00
-411.19
-1061.97
-464.68
-732.88
-573.86
-860.62
-734.48
-844.92
-1133.62
-970.63

32.74
613.58
14.76
165.89
22.02
167.57
39.50
9.45
192.57
18.77
223.14
50.96
95.26
700.70
89.01
309.60
108.29
337.19
155.67
217.75
469.97
296.40
533.36
362.00
411.19
1061.97
464.68
732.88
573.86
860.62
734.48
844.92
1133.62
970.63

-377.75

382.79

Promedios
Pronstico:

Abs

At
6463
6464.60
5894.92
6416.21
6312.89
6493.99
6349.21
6549.99
6576.55
6410.94
6584.20
6436.72
6614.68
6634.22
6069.15
6601.68
6487.83
6708.21
6559.59
6764.37
6789.49
6602.96
6800.85
6653.34
6860.05
6910.60
6338.97
6890.48
6766.94
6978.06
6803.14
6978.87
6978.27
6775.42
6982.35

0.9
0.9
Tt
16
14.56
-43.86
12.65
1.05
19.06
2.67
22.49
22.89
4.04
20.96
4.12
21.50
21.31
-37.33
19.66
6.31
27.71
10.08
29.55
29.11
7.54
26.58
9.17
28.92
31.09
-29.19
28.88
13.64
33.39
12.56
28.88
25.93
3.05
23.44
Promedios
Pronstico:

=
=
Ft

Et

6479
5851
6429
6314
6513
6352
6572
6599
6415
6605
6441
6636
6656
6032
6621
6494
6736
6570
6794
6819
6611
6827
6663
6889
6942
6310
6919
6781
7011
6816
7008
7004
6778
7006

-16.16
-21.05
50.14
-13.94
0.95
-20.88
-0.47
-22.44
-24.99
-2.16
-22.84
-2.19
-21.53
-27.82
43.66
-21.14
-3.93
-29.67
-7.92
-29.60
-31.50
-5.43
-28.51
-6.97
-28.68
-37.78
35.64
-30.58
-11.45
-35.70
-10.75
-29.20
-28.47
-0.78

16.16
21.05
50.14
13.94
0.95
20.88
0.47
22.44
24.99
2.16
22.84
2.19
21.53
27.82
43.66
21.14
3.93
29.67
7.92
29.60
31.50
5.43
28.51
6.97
28.68
37.78
35.64
30.58
11.45
35.70
10.75
29.20
28.47
0.78

-13.06

20.73

Promedios
ronstico:

Abs

At
6463
6471.00
6156.50
6242.13
6254.66
6379.26
6383.74
6493.30
6570.25
6516.92
6565.02
6506.07
6562.57
6608.68
6323.07
6430.99
6447.46
6591.58
6602.74
6715.64
6791.18
6723.40
6774.91
6718.44
6793.10
6868.15
6596.39
6720.91
6739.19
6876.04
6865.45
6947.29
6989.64
6894.66
6938.50

0.5
0.5
Tt
16
12.00
-151.25
-32.81
-10.14
57.23
30.86
70.21
73.58
10.12
29.11
-14.92
20.79
33.45
-126.08
-9.08
3.69
73.91
42.54
77.72
76.63
4.43
27.97
-14.25
30.20
52.63
-109.57
7.48
12.88
74.86
32.14
56.99
49.67
-22.66
10.59

Ft
6483
6005
6209
6245
6436
6415
6564
6644
6527
6594
6491
6583
6642
6197
6422
6451
6665
6645
6793
6868
6728
6803
6704
6823
6921
6487
6728
6752
6951
6898
7004
7039
6872
6949

Promedios
Pronstico:

=
=
Et

Abs

-20.00
-175.25
269.69
55.48
77.51
-83.60
8.49
-66.84
-137.04
8.87
-73.14
50.63
-8.13
-192.99
243.09
21.85
66.52
-105.28
-7.35
-78.81
-148.83
19.12
-70.19
58.70
-7.77
-214.82
226.61
-2.08
49.10
-117.59
-7.28
-64.31
-122.00
55.91

20.00
175.25
269.69
55.48
77.51
83.60
8.49
66.84
137.04
8.87
73.14
50.63
8.13
192.99
243.09
21.85
66.52
105.28
7.35
78.81
148.83
19.12
70.19
58.70
7.77
214.82
226.61
2.08
49.10
117.59
7.28
64.31
122.00
55.91

-14.46

85.73

At
6463
6477.40
6425.76
6390.57
6348.96
6328.50
6308.48
6316.59
6347.38
6377.05
6426.22
6467.89
6522.50
6581.68
6576.65
6586.69
6583.57
6596.71
6601.52
6624.90
6660.75
6683.55
6718.97
6741.31
6776.57
6820.88
6804.96
6810.96
6808.83
6826.61
6836.22
6861.51
6894.27
6908.51
6932.57

0.1
0.9
Tt
16
14.56
-45.02
-36.17
-41.07
-22.52
-20.27
5.27
28.23
29.53
47.21
42.22
53.37
58.60
1.34
9.17
-1.89
11.64
5.49
21.60
34.42
23.97
34.27
23.54
34.08
43.29
-10.00
4.40
-1.48
15.86
10.24
23.78
31.86
16.01
23.25

Ft

Et

6492
6381
6354
6308
6306
6288
6322
6376
6407
6473
6510
6576
6640
6578
6596
6582
6608
6607
6646
6695
6708
6753
6765
6811
6864
6795
6815
6807
6842
6846
6885
6926
6925
6956

-28.96
-550.75
124.60
-7.89
208.02
42.79
250.13
201.39
-16.58
129.57
-92.11
58.14
-6.28
-573.99
69.14
-108.68
123.65
-67.00
139.50
93.83
-128.52
68.76
-130.85
71.35
48.82
-522.96
139.64
-57.34
157.53
-66.46
111.71
48.88
-174.52
49.18

Promedios
Pronstico:

-11.65

=
=
E

Abs

28.96
550.75
124.60
7.89
208.02
42.79
250.13
201.39
16.58
129.57
92.11
58.14
6.28
573.99
69.14
108.68
123.65
67.00
139.50
93.83
128.52
68.76
130.85
71.35
48.82
522.96
139.64
57.34
157.53
66.46
111.71
48.88
174.52
49.18
137.34

At
6463
6477.40
6426.34
6415.47
6390.96
6385.76
6369.18
6376.46
6393.29
6398.91
6424.83
6438.57
6471.50
6509.27
6486.50
6507.97
6515.95
6546.89
6564.79
6604.26
6649.17
6675.57
6718.81
6744.09
6786.13
6831.87
6812.98
6837.24
6844.45
6871.23
6879.76
6904.15
6928.55
6930.33
6948.41

0.1
0.5
Tt
16
15.20
-17.93
-14.40
-19.45
-12.33
-14.45
-3.59
6.62
6.12
16.02
14.88
23.91
30.84
4.03
12.75
10.37
20.65
19.27
29.37
37.14
31.77
37.51
31.39
36.72
41.22
11.17
17.71
12.47
19.62
14.08
19.23
21.82
11.80
14.94

Ft

Et

6492
6381
6354
6308
6306
6288
6322
6376
6407
6473
6510
6576
6640
6578
6596
6582
6608
6607
6646
6695
6708
6753
6765
6811
6864
6795
6815
6807
6842
6846
6885
6926
6925
6956

-28.96
-550.75
124.60
-7.89
208.02
42.79
250.13
201.39
-16.58
129.57
-92.11
58.14
-6.28
-573.99
69.14
-108.68
123.65
-67.00
139.50
93.83
-128.52
68.76
-130.85
71.35
48.82
-522.96
139.64
-57.34
157.53
-66.46
111.71
48.88
-174.52
49.18

Promedios
Pronstico:

Abs

28.96
550.75
124.60
7.89
208.02
42.79
250.13
201.39
16.58
129.57
92.11
58.14
6.28
573.99
69.14
108.68
123.65
67.00
139.50
93.83
128.52
68.76
130.85
71.35
48.82
522.96
139.64
57.34
157.53
66.46
111.71
48.88
174.52
49.18

=
=
At
6463
6464.60
5894.92
6416.21
6312.89
6493.99
6349.21
6549.99
6576.55
6410.94
6584.20
6436.72
6614.68
6634.22
6069.15
6601.68
6487.83
6708.21
6559.59
6764.37
6789.49
6602.96
6800.85
6653.34
6860.05
6910.60
6338.97
6890.48
6766.94
6978.06
6803.14
6978.87
6978.27
6775.42
6982.35

0.9
0.1
Tt
16
14.56
-43.86
12.65
1.05
19.06
2.67
22.49
22.89
4.04
20.96
4.12
21.50
21.31
-37.33
19.66
6.31
27.71
10.08
29.55
29.11
7.54
26.58
9.17
28.92
31.09
-29.19
28.88
13.64
33.39
12.56
28.88
25.93
3.05
23.44

Ft

Et

6479
5851
6429
6314
6513
6352
6572
6599
6415
6605
6441
6636
6656
6032
6621
6494
6736
6570
6794
6819
6611
6827
6663
6889
6942
6310
6919
6781
7011
6816
7008
7004
6778
7006

-16.16
-21.05
50.14
-13.94
0.95
-20.88
-0.47
-22.44
-24.99
-2.16
-22.84
-2.19
-21.53
-27.82
43.66
-21.14
-3.93
-29.67
-7.92
-29.60
-31.50
-5.43
-28.51
-6.97
-28.68
-37.78
35.64
-30.58
-11.45
-35.70
-10.75
-29.20
-28.47
-0.78

16.16
21.05
50.14
13.94
0.95
20.88
0.47
22.44
24.99
2.16
22.84
2.19
21.53
27.82
43.66
21.14
3.93
29.67
7.92
29.60
31.50
5.43
28.51
6.97
28.68
37.78
35.64
30.58
11.45
35.70
10.75
29.20
28.47
0.78

-13.06

20.73

Promedios
Pronstico:

Abs

=
=
At
6463
6464.60
5894.34
6392.46
6320.12
6496.43
6357.27
6548.43
6582.65
6415.23
6578.84
6439.57
6610.34
6638.06
6072.01
6579.70
6496.05
6710.41
6568.76
6763.06
6795.51
6606.83
6794.14
6656.21
6855.62
6915.33
6343.35
6868.75
6775.60
6979.77
6811.29
6975.66
6981.90
6776.92
6973.81

=
=

0.9
0.5
Tt
16
8.80
-280.73
108.70
18.18
97.24
-20.96
85.10
59.66
-53.88
54.86
-42.20
64.28
46.00
-260.03
123.83
20.09
117.23
-12.21
91.04
61.75
-63.47
61.92
-38.00
80.70
70.21
-250.88
137.25
22.05
113.11
-27.68
68.34
37.29
-83.84
56.52

Ft

Et

E Abs

6479
6473
5614
6501
6338
6594
6336
6634
6642
6361
6634
6397
6675
6684
5812
6704
6516
6828
6557
6854
6857
6543
6856
6618
6936
6986
6092
7006
6798
7093
6784
7044
7019
6693

-16.00
-643.40
865.39
-201.16
175.71
-262.67
235.69
-56.53
-252.32
241.65
-215.70
236.63
-40.62
-680.07
853.02
-230.53
215.85
-287.64
229.45
-65.10
-278.26
278.64
-222.06
263.80
-23.33
-713.54
862.53
-256.00
202.35
-312.87
213.40
-69.00
-269.19
311.93

16.00
643.40
865.39
201.16
175.71
262.67
235.69
56.53
252.32
241.65
215.70
236.63
40.62
680.07
853.02
230.53
215.85
287.64
229.45
65.10
278.26
278.64
222.06
263.80
23.33
713.54
862.53
256.00
202.35
312.87
213.40
69.00
269.19
311.93

2.65

302.41

Promedios
Pronstico:

At
6463
6471.00
6158.10
6309.75
6304.53
6408.70
6374.54
6475.79
6533.73
6471.36
6542.60
6488.75
6566.28
6608.43
6315.79
6484.38
6481.70
6609.43
6583.42
6691.25
6751.40
6678.35
6758.36
6707.55
6802.47
6869.40
6584.55
6767.99
6766.57
6890.03
6847.25
6931.00
6965.18
6870.26
6944.29

=
=

0.5
0.1
Tt
16
15.20
-17.61
-0.68
-1.14
9.39
5.04
14.66
18.99
10.85
16.89
9.82
16.59
19.14
-12.03
6.03
5.16
17.41
13.07
22.55
26.31
16.37
22.74
15.38
23.33
27.69
-3.56
15.14
13.48
24.48
17.76
24.36
25.34
13.31
19.38

Ft

Et

E Abs

6479
6486
6140
6309
6303
6418
6380
6490
6553
6482
6559
6499
6583
6628
6304
6490
6487
6627
6596
6714
6778
6695
6781
6723
6826
6897
6581
6783
6780
6915
6865
6955
6991
6884

-16.00
-656.20
338.51
-9.06
210.61
-87.09
192.42
86.55
-162.71
120.79
-141.49
135.44
51.13
-623.58
361.25
-17.41
245.14
-86.84
189.51
75.21
-198.71
127.27
-147.10
159.07
87.20
-625.09
374.01
-33.13
219.95
-134.51
131.99
19.64
-240.52
121.43

16.00
656.20
338.51
9.06
210.61
87.09
192.42
86.55
162.71
120.79
141.49
135.44
51.13
623.58
361.25
17.41
245.14
86.84
189.51
75.21
198.71
127.27
147.10
159.07
87.20
625.09
374.01
33.13
219.95
134.51
131.99
19.64
240.52
121.43

1.99

189.02

Promedios
Pronstico:

At
6463
6471.00
6154.90
6175.15
6232.50
6398.55
6442.03
6534.31
6599.91
6528.90
6537.39
6478.66
6530.00
6602.47
6337.89
6385.85
6439.45
6610.85
6655.06
6748.39
6813.48
6730.01
6741.82
6689.81
6762.69
6868.32
6620.74
6681.52
6732.47
6890.84
6909.14
6968.68
7000.19
6892.11
6901.62

0.5
0.9
Tt
16
8.80
-283.61
-10.14
50.61
154.51
54.58
88.50
67.89
-57.12
1.93
-52.66
40.94
69.32
-231.19
20.05
50.24
159.28
55.72
89.57
67.54
-68.37
3.79
-46.43
60.95
101.16
-212.70
33.43
49.20
147.45
31.22
56.71
34.03
-93.87
-0.83
Promedios
Pronstico:

=
=
Ft

Et

E Abs

6479
6480
5871
6165
6283
6553
6497
6623
6668
6472
6539
6426
6571
6672
6107
6406
6490
6770
6711
6838
6881
6662
6746
6643
6824
6969
6408
6715
6782
7038
6940
7025
7034
6798

-16.00
-649.80
607.71
135.00
230.89
-222.06
75.39
-45.81
-277.80
131.22
-121.32
208.00
63.06
-667.78
558.29
67.10
242.31
-230.13
75.21
-48.96
-302.02
160.36
-111.61
238.63
89.36
-697.48
546.96
35.05
218.32
-258.29
56.64
-50.39
-284.23
206.76

16.00
649.80
607.71
135.00
230.89
222.06
75.39
45.81
277.80
131.22
121.32
208.00
63.06
667.78
558.29
67.10
242.31
230.13
75.21
48.96
302.02
160.36
111.61
238.63
89.36
697.48
546.96
35.05
218.32
258.29
56.64
50.39
284.23
206.76

-1.10

233.23

Promedios
ronstico:

At
6463
6479.00
6495.00
6511.00
6527.00
6543.00
6559.00
6575.00
6591.00
6607.00
6623.00
6639.00
6655.00
6671.00
6687.00
6703.00
6719.00
6735.00
6751.00
6767.00
6783.00
6799.00
6815.00
6831.00
6847.00
6863.00
6879.00
6895.00
6911.00
6927.00
6943.00
6959.00
6975.00
6991.00
7007.00

0
0
Tt
16
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00
16.00

Ft
6479
6495
6511
6527
6543
6559
6575
6591
6607
6623
6639
6655
6671
6687
6703
6719
6735
6751
6767
6783
6799
6815
6831
6847
6863
6879
6895
6911
6927
6943
6959
6975
6991
7007

Promedios
Pronstico:

Et

E Abs

-16.00
-665.00
-32.00
-227.00
-29.00
-228.00
-3.00
-14.00
-217.00
-20.00
-221.00
-21.00
-37.00
-683.00
-38.00
-246.00
-3.00
-211.00
19.00
6.00
-220.00
7.00
-197.00
35.00
50.00
-607.00
60.00
-161.00
73.00
-163.00
38.00
0.00
-241.00
-2.00

16.00
665.00
32.00
227.00
29.00
228.00
3.00
14.00
217.00
20.00
221.00
21.00
37.00
683.00
38.00
246.00
3.00
211.00
19.00
6.00
220.00
7.00
197.00
35.00
50.00
607.00
60.00
161.00
73.00
163.00
38.00
0.00
241.00
2.00

-123.94

140.88