INICIALIZACIN

SIMULACIN DEL PRONSTICO

Semana Per. T Demanda Pronostico

40
80
41
79
42
88
43
58
44
71
45
85
46
79
47
63
48
57
49
50
50
71
51
0
112
52
1
53
74.42
53
2
85
72.14
54
3
43
73.51
55
4
47
70.26
56
5
48
67.79
57
6
73
65.69
58
7
23
66.46
59
8
116
61.84
60
9
67
67.60
61
10
39
67.54
62
11
81
64.50
63
12
67
66.26
64
13
58
66.34
65
14
51
65.45
66
15
52
63.91
67
16
51
62.65
68
17
65
61.41
69
18
56
61.79
70
19
46
61.18
71
20
75
59.56
72
21
47
61.20
73
22
69
59.69
74
23
59
60.68
75
24
54
60.50
76
25
46
59.81
77
26
44
58.34
78
27
51
56.82
79
28
41
56.20
80
29
77
54.58
81
30
69
56.97
82
31
54
58.25
83
32
76
57.80

84
85
86
87
88
89
90

33
34
35
36
37
38
39 ?

88
55
74
46
49
80

59.73
62.74
61.91
63.20
61.37
60.05
62.18

MAD;ECM;MAPE;MAPE'

ET

ET2

|ET|

21
-13
31
23
20
-7
43
-54
1
29
-16
-1
8
14
12
12
-4
6
15
-15
14
-9
2
7
14
14
6
15
-22
-12
4
-18

21
13
31
23
20
7
43
54
1
29
16
1
8
14
12
12
4
6
15
15
14
9
2
7
14
14
6
15
22
12
4
18

APE

459
165
931
541
392
53
1889
2933
0
814
272
1
69
209
142
136
13
34
230
238
202
87
3
42
191
206
34
231
502
145
18
331

40%
15%
71%
49%
41%
10%
189%
47%
1%
73%
20%
1%
14%
28%
23%
23%
6%
10%
33%
21%
30%
13%
3%
12%
30%
33%
11%
37%
29%
17%
8%
24%

-28
8
-12
17
12
-20
<-- PRONSTICO EN TIEMPO REAL

28
8
12
17
12
20
15.29
alfa

799
60
146
296
153
398
351.71
0.00
0.106302912

32%
14%
16%
37%
25%
25%
29%

APE'

29%
18%
42%
33%
29%
11%
65%
88%
1%
42%
26%
1%
13%
22%
19%
19%
6%
9%
25%
26%
23%
16%
3%
11%
23%
25%
10%
27%
41%
21%
7%
31%

47%
12%
20%
27%
20%
33%
24%