Automated Future 1

Running Head: Automated Future

Theyre coming to take me away:

An Automated Future
Josh Arnold

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At the start of the industrial revolution, most jobs we take for granted today didnt exist,
public health was low, and day-to-day life was hard. With the encroachment of machines, life got
easier, health and education improved, and society started its forward march into the unknown.
But with the rise of the machines the working class noticed a disturbing trend; they were being
replaced. The farm hands cried havoc, but soon found themselves working in the very factories
that were producing those machines; however, we have reached a new precipice. With the
explosion of technology over the last thirty years, automation is no longer generating new jobs at
the rate at which it is moving into them; and that has everyone questioning the future. In the
following paper, a brief history of automation will be discussed; along with the role its played in
shaping our economy and society, the advantages and pitfalls of its ever increasing rate of
adoption, and the potential futures a thoroughly automated society could have.
So what is automation exactly? Based and some quick research it appears that the
general masses are at somewhat of a loss when trying to explain it. To explain it in the form of a
definition it is: The use of largely automatic equipment in a system of manufacturing or other
production process (Oxford Dictionary, 2015). Yes that is the closes definition but it still leaves a
lot to be explained. In the industrial side of things this could be conveyors with sensors and a
computer to tell the belt when to move, up to a very intricate robotic arm. On the side of home
automation its the little things, the washer and dryer, stove, central heater system, or the lowly
toaster. In truth automation is anything that makes our lives simpler by taking away part or all of
a process we would have to do by hand otherwise. Automation surrounds us every day; from the

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technology we use to the cloths we wear all of those items were produced with the aid of
automation.
In 1790, there were about 3.5 million farmers, [thats] 90% of the population [at the
time], while farm workers now[, 2014,] make up 1.6% of the population with 5 million workers
(Growing a Nation quoted by Walker, 2014). Before the industrial revolution most manufactured
goods were made at home, from clothing to simple tools. With the wheels of the revolution
turning, new machines were created to speed up the production of food and drive down its cost;
as with any new technology jobs were lost. The American farmer found himself at a loss in the
field but found a rather large gain in the new industry that replaced him. Life for the American
worker was improving, wealth was being generated and all thought there was a bright future
ahead.

Fast forward to today. The technology boom of the late 70s and early 80s has led to a
world of instant face to face communication anywhere on the globe, production at a level
unimaginable in the 1800s, and a growing concern that with this new automation there will be no
jobs left to step into. At this point and time lower skilled labor is being displaced, moving to a
lower paying job; whereas those individuals with the necessary skills have seen an increase in
employment opportunity and wages (Balch, 2014). To rephrase what Balch (2014) has stated,
we have reached a point where the high paying factory work that once made this country, and its
economy, thrive is being automated faster than it can be replaced; thus, causing those

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employees that once filled those slots to look for work in a lower pay scale. This has been the
consensus among all of the sources Ive found; they all agree that there will be a loss of
employment, but to what extent no one can say for sure.

As Gallino (1999) writes:

This minor textbook equation prevails much less at the age of driven automation,
the one that I call recursive automation. The jobs that technology used to create
soon after it had suppressed a certain number were partly recovered by the
enlargement of the markets but partly also by producing technological means,
that is, producing the same machines of goods and services that the markets
absorbed up to a point. With automation applied to itself the machines produce
other machines to automate, the process of automation attains very high levels
and thus there is no longer any hope, or at least it is much reduced, to sooner or
later find a new job in the sectors that produce the technology that eliminated the
original job, the first job.(Capa, 2014).

However, I tend to lean towards what Professor Mark Walker, Professor of Philosophy at
New Mexico State University, has to say on automation:

I believe the era of reduced need for human labor will be a wondrous thing for
humanity. On the horizon is an age where we might work because we want to

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work, not because we must work; an age where human labor is like the labor we
devoted to our hobbies, motivated by joy and self-actualization. It will be very
unlike our current threat-economy where fear of starvation, homelessness and
death is a stick to ensure compliance by the masses to the imperative to work
(Walker, 2014).

I believe the future could be very bright. One where human creativity and enlightenment
are championed and praised, hunger and illness made obsolete, and one where the drive to
better ones self is encouraged and nurtured; so long as we can get it together and not lose sight
of ourselves as a whole. As Walker (2014) dubbed it, the threat-economy will hinder this growth
and may lead to a very large pitfall before we can step into this higher plain of economic
sustainability.

With the threat of job loss hanging over ones head, its easy to lose sight of what
automation has brought to our society. Pre-industrial revolution, most worked day in and day out,
six days a week, to live a meager life; however, with the revolution and the displacement of work
from field to factory wages went up. Now those field hands are bringing home a decent wage
and can afford to live a better life; providing for their families and taking the stress of uncertainty
away. As the economy started to climb upwards so did all aspects of life. The day to day chores

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around the home were automated, or simplified, with the invention of the laundry machine,
clothes dryer, and toaster to name just a few.

The medical field has also seen a huge improvement since the advancement of
automation. In an article by Cohn (2013) entitled, The robot will see you now, he discusses the
super computer named Watson, yes the one from Jeopardy, and the advancements its
making in diagnosing ailments. Watson is able to comb through all medical records currently in a
database, search for, and cross reference symptoms a patient is experiencing and give a list of
possibilities based on how close a particular case and definition match. This allows the doctor to
make a quicker and more accurate prediction of what is actually going on with the patient. With
the healthcare industry using up to one sixth of the national GDP, gross domestic product, this
new technology could become an electronic assistant, driving down cost due to misdiagnosis
and over-testing. It will also allow those under the doctor to work to their fullest potential, nurses
will now be able to diagnose simple illness and administer basic healthcare; thus freeing the
doctor to do other duties and insuring a stable future for the nursing field (Cohn, 2013).

Another possible future will be automation of the home, not in the sense we know it
today, but full home automation. Dirty clothes will be handled entirely by machines once
discarded, likewise with dishes; chores as we know them would be a thing of the past. This of
course is aimed mostly at those whom need assistant living; however, once its in the home it
will not be long until its in all homes. In an article written by Gates (2007) entitled, A robot in

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every home, he discusses the similarities between home automation and computers; how we
are now at the point of automation that computers were at in the 1970s. The industry was new
and very few companies actually used the product, but as time advanced and the technology
improved and became smaller, the computer became personal.

With the onset of personal computing, or the pc, the everyday person could use this
amazing business technology to improve their lives at home. It was slow to be adopted by those
in the public sector as its uses were limited; however, as time went on and the technology
improved the adoption rate quickly advanced. Much like its pc counterpart, personal automation
is in its infancy as the technology is just now making the leap from business to home. With the
tech behind automation slimming down, growing faster and more user friendly we should expect
for a similar trend to happen with personal automation. In two decades we could be living in a
world where the common house hold will own a personal robotic servant much like the present
home has one or more personal computers.

With the impending demise of the middle class on everyones mind; automation and
personal robotics creeping into every home, many are left wondering what will be done to keep
everything in check. Many have suggested a whole list or rules and regulation, ranging from
limiting the development of these new machines, down to whos responsible in case something
should go wrong. I am not a law expert, nor will I be, but a collaborated paper written by
Marchant, Stevens, and Hennessy (2014), suggest implementing one or several laws to

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maintain jobs. They suggest a possibility of implementing a series of regulations that would;
protect employment by placing limits on technology development, require so many human
workers, and sharing work. They also suggested national work programs, national service, and
guaranteed income which was backed by Professor Walker. Redistribution, putting emphasis on
lifelong education instead of "one and done" so employees can keep up with the quickly
changing work environment.

While I agree with the aforementioned paper on emphasis on lifelong education, rules for
guaranteed income, and work programs to get people back to work, our infrastructure is terrible,
I have to disagree with the putting of rules and regulations on the advancement of technology
and by extension automation. As Walker coined, the threat-economy is the issue, not
automation. For the economy to survive and for us to survive in our current quality of life, we
need to be able adapt in order to allow the shift from human work to automated work, not the
other way around. The current entropic tendency of a threat-economy will eventually lead to its
own self destruction, with or without automation, thus rules and regulations should be put in
place to make the economic transfer as painless as possible.

With the rapid advancement of automation and the ever growing awareness of it in the
publics eye I felt the need to take a quick survey and see what people think. Ive noticed that of
those that participated in my survey, most still only get their information from television or
movies. While television can be a good source of information on a subject it tends to be biased

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depending on what youre watching. An education program will give you the good and bad
points of a subject but in a broader sense as time restraints are in place, whereas news
programs will tend to be biased based on what story theyre trying to cover. With movies there is
a trend to stylize certain aspects and down play others, as they may be boring, creating a hyperstylized version of the truth. However, despite these lacks in public education on automation
there still tends to be a cautionary duality on the subject. Most feel that while there have been
positives to the advancement of automation; they still realize that it was at the expense of jobs
and it will continue to take them.

Do to this over hyper-stylized and polarized view of the topic at hand I noticed that the
participants of my research had no particular view of the situation. They seemed to be at a loss
as to what to believe when dealing with automations ever widening reach into our lives. As such
I believe there needs to be a more up front discussion about what this quickly changing
landscape means to most. For the immediate future those in lower skilled jobs could see
themselves being replaced depending on the level of repetitiveness of the work being done.
Currently the work being performed must be semi-repetitive with very little deviation outside the
work envelope of the machines doing the work. Those in jobs that require quite a bit of
movement over a large area or those that the task changes constantly and with little to no
warning will be fine for the foreseeable future as the technology to change a program that
quickly has yet to be effective.

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I then decided to ask my willing accomplices if they felt automation was a benefit to
society. While only twenty seven percent said yes the other participants answered other, all of
whom stated that while automation has been good for society its also hurt the job market. This
led me to believe that while most are optimistic about a future with automation they know it will
come with a cost. This segued me into asking their thoughts on the future, again most were
optimistic, one with a robot overlord response, but with cautionary tale. Most of the participants
were a little reluctant to answer the question as they simply didnt know what to think. After a
little more digging I noticed that most research doesnt really cover what the future could hold or
how deeply automation will affect society. At this point and time I believe its still too early to tell
just how deeply automation will cut. It will be based on public response and technology
advancement both of which are uncurtains.

So as we march to an uncertain future with automation driving us forward the gains will
out weight the losses. Most have no clue as to whether or not automation will affect their
employment, either by not knowing if their jobs can be replaced or by thinking of themselves
irreplaceable. I myself can say with certainty that at some point and time in the future the whole
debate will be mute. As the processes continues to improve and the advancement of artificial
intelligence grows, if not to sentience than semi-awareness, the need for human labor will
diminish and the economy along with it. To survive the human race will need to develop a new
economic structure not based on current thinking, which is you have to work to survive, and
rethink what it means to be human.

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References:

Cohn J., (2/20/2013), The Robot Will See You Now, theatlantic.com, Retrieved from
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/03/the-robot-will-see-younow/309216/?single_page=true

Gates B., (1/2007), A Robot In Every Home, Scientific American, Retrieved from
http://www.cs.virginia.edu/~robins/A_Robot_in_Every_Home.pdf
Walker M., (2/2014), BIG and Technological Unemployment: Chicken Little Versus the
Economists, Journal of Evolution and Technology - Vol. 24 Issue 1 February 2014 pgs 5-25
Campa R., (2/2014), Workers and Automata: A Sociological Analysis of the Italian Case,
Journal of Evolution and Technology - Vol. 24 Issue 1 February 2014 - pgs 70-85

Marchant G., Stevens Y., and Hennessy J., (2/2014), Technology, Unemployment & Policy
Options: Navigating the Transition to a Better World, Journal of Evolution and
Technology - Vol. 24 Issue 1 February 2014 - pgs 26-44