11)

0.1
0.2

MODELO DE HOLD
AO

DEMANDA
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4

70
74
80
82
87
90

TERMINO LINEAL XT
80.50
79.85
79.75
79.86
80.51
81.52

TEND. Tt
0.00
-0.13
-0.12
-0.08
0.07
0.26

PRONOSTICO
80.50
79.72
79.62
79.78
80.57
81.77
81.78
82.04
82.30
82.56
SUMA
ERROR

a) determinar pronostico para los siguentes 4 aos

B) SI LA DEMANDA DEL PERIODO 7 ES 93 PRONOSTICAR PARA EL PERIDO 9

AO

DEMANDA
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4

TERMINO LINEAL XT
70
82.29
74
81.46
80
81.16
82
81.07
87
81.51
90
82.32
93

TEND. Tt
0.00
-0.17
-0.19
-0.17
-0.05
0.12

b)

PRONOSTICO
82.29
81.29
80.97
80.90
81.46
82.44
82.44
82.56
82.68
82.80
SUMA
ERROR

730.6666666667

0.9
0.8
ERROR
-10.50
-5.72
0.38
2.22
6.43
8.23

ABS(ERROR)
10.50
5.72
0.38
2.22
6.43
8.23

1.03
BIAS

33.47
DMA

0.17

ERROR
-12.29
-7.29
-0.97
1.10
5.54
7.56
10.56

ABS(ERROR)
12.29
7.29
0.97
1.10
5.54
7.56
10.56

ERROR 2
150.94
53.16
0.94
1.20
30.65
57.17
111.51

7%

ERROR/DEMANDA
18%
10%
1%
1%
6%
8%
11%

405.59
DCM

7.55

42%
PAME

42.84

45.30
DMA

0.70

ERROR/DEMANDA
15%
8%
0%
3%
7%
9%

257.02
DCM

5.58

4.21
BIAS

ERROR 2
110.25
32.72
0.14
4.91
41.30
67.70

56%
PAME

67.60

9%

series estacionales de winter y modelos casuales por regrecion

16)
X
Y
X
AO
RENTA(MILONES DE EUROS)
VENTAS(MILES DE EUROS)
2003
189
402
2004
190
404
2005
208
412
2006
227
425
2007
239
429
2008
252
436
2009
257
440
2010
274
447
2011
293
458
2012
308
469
2013
316
469
475.65
2014
325

B= 13.1818181818
R= 0.9959345582
A= 26219.18182

Y=A+BX

Chart Title
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50

AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1.86333103
0.99874672
-561.29479

200
150
100
50
0
2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

RENTA(MILONES DE EUROS)

2009

2010

2011

2012

VENTAS(MILES DE EUROS)

2013

2014

A)
17)
AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

GASTOS EN
PROPAGANDA
12
15
19
21
25
32
31

VENTAS
920
1005
1015
1030
1200
1320
1300
1392.14286
1461.96429

B)

VENTAS
920
1005
1015
1030
1200
1320
1300
1545

1531.79
B= 69.8214286
R= 0.95143114
A= 833.571429

B=
R=
A=

Y=A+BX

VENT
AS

VENTAS
1800

GASTOS EN PROPAG

50
45
40
43.4446911563
35
30
32 31
25
25
20
21
15
19
15
10
12
5
0

1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1

10
AO

013

2014

GASTOS EN
PROPAGANDA
12
15
19
21
25
32
31

43.445

20.28665029
0.9757617
663.6527437

OS EN PROPAGANDA
43.4446911563
32 31
21

25

GASTOS EN
PROPAGANDA

18)
PERIO PROMEDIO DE 0,5 MILLONES CADA UNA
MODELO DE WINTER
TRIMESTRE
1
2
3
4
PROMEDIOS

2012
12
18
26
16
18

INDICES
2012
2013
0.72
0.79
0.68
1.14
0.65
1.28
0.62
0.79

2013
16
24
28
18
21.5

PG= 19.75

0.2

0.1
0.05

TO= 0.875
XO= 15.81

PROYECTAR NIVEL DE VENTAS TOTAL PARA LA GESTION 2014

1
2
3
4

16.685
17.56
18.435
19.31

5
6
7
8

20.185
21.06
21.935
22.81

PORMEDIO
INDICES
0.76
0.91
0.96
0.71
3.34

AO

20
12

0.91
1.09
1.15
0.84
4.00

K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

20
13

CORREGIR
INDICES

TRIMESTRE
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Yt
12
18
26
16
16
24
28
18

Xt
15.999
16.742
18.539
19.340
19.718
20.843
22.220
22.773

Tt
0.81
0.80
0.90
0.89
0.84
0.87
0.92
0.88

PRONOTICO
15.214
19.149
22.436
17.087
18.611
23.699
26.705
19.980
21.413
25.820
27.299
19.979

19)

TRIMESTRE
1
2
3
4
PROMEDIO
PG=
TO=
XO=
1
2
3
4

50.28125
53.09375
55.90625
58.71875

ACCIDENTES
AO 1
AO 2
42
48
58
70
74
95
44
50
54.5
65.75
60.125
2.8125
47.46875
5
6
7
8

61.53125
64.34375
67.15625
69.96875

AO 3

INDICES
AO 1
0.83530143
1.0924073
1.32364449
0.74933475

1
O
2
O
3
O

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

AO

0.80790826
1.09044295
1.36948706
0.73216172
4

CORREGIR
INDICES

PROMEDIO DE
INDICES
INDICES
AO 2
0.78009142 0.8076964232
1.08790675 1.0901570246
1.41461145 1.3691279707
0.71460473 0.7319697434
3.9989511619

1
O
O

Yt

Xt

Tt

PRONOSTICO

42
58
74
44
48
70
95
50

50.62222
53.4129325
55.8101187
58.9045985
61.2673454
64.0767317
67.3615764
69.8139784
58.0872543
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

2.846597
2.84100855
2.79662632
2.82641167
2.78004518
2.7829793
2.83316584
2.79508946
1.3429081
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

43.197899183
61.3417133807
80.2611791831
45.1970828006
51.744416128
72.9067004925
96.1307914267
53.161580273
58.6614660324
79.1760461388
99.4371791637
53.161580273

72.6090679