™ NORTH STAR Insure Tennessee ‘Survey of Tennessee Registered Republican Voters Highlight Summary Support for Obamacare 9% support 85% oppose Support for Insure Tennessee — Uninformed 44% support 16% oppose 40% undecided Support for Insure Tennessee — Informed (after arguments for and against) 60% support 24% opposed 16% undecided Legislator Support - If support Insure Tennessee 53% more likely to vote 25% less likely to vote 21% don't know Key Demographics 56% (28% oppose) of very conservative voters support (43% of Republicans) 63% (23%) of evangelicals support (68% of Republicans) 60% (32%) of Tea Party supporters support (25% of Republicans) 62% (25%) of regular Fox News viewers support (38% of Republicans) 47% (37%) of regular talk radio listeners support (17% of Republicans) Governor Haslam Job Approval 82% approve 9% disapprove MoE = plus/minus 4.90%Aon NORTH STAR OPINION RESEARCH To: Governor's Office From: Whit Ayres and Jon McHenry Date: January 30, 2015 Re: Attitudes About Governor Haslam's Insure Tennessee Plan Among Republicans Our survey conducted January 21-26, 2015, with 600 voters statewide and an oversample to reach a total of 400 Republicans, shows Republican voters initially support “Governor Haslam’s plan called Insure Tennessee, which is an alternative Medicaid approach to provide health insurance for the working poor in our state” by a 44 to 16 percent margin, with 40 percent undecided. After simulating a legislative debate with strong arguments for and against the Plan, support among Republicans increases to 60 percent (up 12 points), and opposition increases to 24 percent (up 8 points). After the debate, support for the Plan extends to all important parts of the Republican coalition: 56 to 28 percent among very conservative voters (43 percent of Republicans), 63 to 23 percent among evangelicals (68 percent of Republicans), 60 to 32 percent among strong Tea Party supporters (25 percent of Republicans), 62 to 25 percent among regular Fox News viewers (38 percent of Republicans), and 47 to 37 percent among regular talk radio listeners (17 percent of Republicans). When discussing the Insure Tennessee Plan with Republicans, two points are key: 1. Insure Tennessee is Governor Haslam's plan, not Barack Obama's. While Insure Tennessee may use federal dollars, Governor Haslam's plan is fundamentally different from Obamacare. The Haslam plan uses conservative principles and market forces to drive down costs and promote personal responsibility. Obamacare simply expands the existing and fundamentally flawed Medicaid program. Polling shows the importance of driving this point home among Republicans. Governor Haslam's job approval stands at 82 to 9 percent among Republican voters. Republican attitudes about Obamacare are a mirror image: 9 percent support and 85 percent oppose. Republicans not only like Governor Haslam, they trust him and his judgment. Consequently his name and the Plan should be constantly linked: "Governor Haslam's Insure Tennessee Plan.” p 703-836-7666 w northstaropinion.com 3.112 North Alfred Street, Alexandria, VA 223142, Tennesseans are already paying for expanded health care coverage, and those tax dollars should stay in the state rather than paying health care costs for people in other states. ‘The most persuasive argument to support Governor Haslam's Insure Tennessee Plan is: Tennesseans are already paying additional federal taxes for the expansion of health care coverage anyway. We are better off keeping our tax dollars in the state for the benefit of Tennesseans who need it, rather than funding health care for people in other states. Fifty-five percent of Republican voters find that argument to be very persuasive, including 58 percent of very conservative voters, 55 percent of evangelicals, 56 percent of strong Tea Party supporters, 58 percent of regular Fox News viewers, and 59 percent of regular talk radio listeners. Other aspects of the Plan are important for making the case as well: the program will not cost taxpayers any more money, it will end after two years if it is not working, it will help rural hospitals stay open, and it will promote personal responsibility by requiring recipients to pay some of the cost for their own care. But the most important point is that Tennesseans are already paying for it and they might as well get the benefit of their tax dollars Itis critically important that Republicans hear the case for the Plan. If all they hear are the arguments against the Plan, the levels of support found in this survey will never materialize. The Bottom Line for Republican Legislators For Republican members of the State Legislature pondering the political consequences in a Republican primary of supporting the Governor's plan, the survey contains one question of particular interest. After hearing the arguments for and against the Plan, 53 percent of Republican voters say they would be more likely to vote to reelect a candidate who “supported Governor Haslam's Insure Tennessee Plan," while only 25 percent are less likely to do so. Very conservative voters are more likely rather than less likely to vote for a Plan supporter by 46 to 32 percent, evangelicals are more likely by 54 to 29 percent, strong ‘Tea Party supporters are more likely by 51 to 33 percent, and regular Fox News viewers are more likely by 58 to 26 percent. Only regular talk radio listeners say they are less likely to do so, but the margin is close: 43 percent less likely and 38 percent more likely. Governor Haslam's Insure Tennessee Plan is not only popular among all voters, but it is supported by Republican voters as well. Indeed, after the arguments pro and con, the Plan generates equal support from all three partisan groups: 60 to 24 percent among Republicans, 61 to 26 percent among Independents, and 61 to 26 percent among Democrats. Attitudes About Governor Haslam’s Insure Tennessee Plan Among RepublicansSURVEY OF TENNESSEE REGISTERED VOTERS REGARDING INSURE TENNESSEE, HIGHLIGHTS AND STRONGEST ARGUMENTS FOR AND AGAINST JANUARY 21-26, 2015 Gubernatorial Job Approval Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Haslam has done as Governor? ALL REP IND DEM 68% — 82% 3% 56%. 18% 9% 17% 31% 15% 8% 22% = 13% APPROVE, DISAPPROVE... DON'T KNOWINO OPINION... Health Care Reform Do you support or oppose the health care reform law, also known as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare, that passed in 2010? ALL REP IND DEM 3% 9% 37% 78% SUPPORT sess se . OPPOSE... ee 56% 85% 53% 16% DON’T KNOW/NO OPINION... nnT% 5% S% You may have heard about Governor Haslam’s plan called Insure Tennessee, which is an alternative Medicaid approach to provide heath insurance for the working poor in our slate. Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose that plan? ALL REP IND 148% 44% 46% SUPPORT. ‘OPPOSE, “ “ "18% 16% 23% DON'T KNOW occ . 34% 40% 32% ‘ADL results are based on 789 weighted respondents, MoE = 13.49 percent. REP results are based on 400 respondents, MoE = "4.90 percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent due to rounding, "North Star Opinion Research Page 1‘Top Four Arguments For The Insure Tennessee Plan ROTATE ARGUMENTS FOR AND AGAINST (FitswNext), here are some arguments to support Governor Haslam's Insure Tennessee plan. For each one, please somewhat persuasive, or not very persuasive reason to tell me if you think that argument is a very persuasiv. support that plan: (RANDOMIZE) Tennessee taxpayers are already paying additional federal taxes for the expansion of health care coverage anyway. We are better off keeping our tax dollars in the state for the benefit of Tennesseans who need it, rather than funding health care for people in other states, The plan will not cost taxpayers any more money. The federal government will cover 90 percent of the cost, and Tennessee hospitals have ‘committed to paying the rest ‘The plan will help struggling rural hospitals serving the poor to stay open and avoid bankruptey. The plan allows the state two years to reform the health care system for the better. Ifthe pplan doesn’t work, it wll be stopped. ALL REP IND very SOMEWHAT PERSUASIVE PERSUASIVE 4™% 2% 35% 25% 27% 32% DEM ALL REP IND DEM ALL REP IND DEM ALL REP IND DEM NOTVERY PERSUASWE 21% 13% 23% 29% 24% 24% 27% 1% 20% 18% 2% 20% 23% 16% 25% 28% Dw NOOPIN 5% 6% a% 3% ALL results are based on 789 weighted respondents, MoE =43.49 percent. REP results are based on 400 respondents, Mok 4.90 percent. Totals may not equal 100 percent du t rounding. North Star Opinion Research Page 2‘Top Four Arguments Against The Insure Tennessee Plan (Pirst/Next), here are some arguments to oppose the Insure Tennessee plan. For each one, please tell me if you think that argument is a very persuasive, somewhat persuasive, or not very persuasive reason to oppose that plan: (RANDOMIZE) America cannot afford the government health ALI care programs we have now. The last thing we REP. need to do is expand coverage to more people. IND ‘We've got to stop spending money we don’t DEM have. By accepting federal Obamacare dollars, the ALL 30% 32% pplan wil further entrench Obamacare and make REP 43% 28% 20% it more difficult for Republicans in Washington IND. 27% 32% 35% to repeal it. DEM 18° 30% 44% ‘By expanding the number of Tennesseans ALL 21% 29% 43% eligible for government-funded health care, REP 30% 29% 33% ‘Tennessee is helping Obama enact his socialist. IND 19% 28% 45% agenda. Ifthe plan doesn't work after two years and has ALL, 19% 37% to be ended, the pain caused by throwing more REP 22% 25% than two hundred fifty thousand people off of IND 18% A% health care coverage isn't worth the risk. DEM 18% 46% % 10% 5% 5% Post-Argument Opinions About The Insure Tennessee Plan ‘Now that we have talked about this issue for a while, let me ask you one question again, Governor Hastam’s plan celled Insure Tennessee is an alternative Medieaid appronch to provide heath insurance for the working poor in our state. Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose that plan?” ALL REP SUPPORT. 61% 60% oppose. 26% 24% DONT KNOW | re l4% 16% IND DEM 61% 61% 26% 26% 12% 13% Political Consequences of Supporting The Insure Tennessee Plan If your state senator or state representative supported Governor Haslam's Insure Tennessee plan, would that make ‘you more likely of less likely to vate for them for reelection? ALL REP MORE LIKELY 52% 53% LESS LIKELY, 29% 25% DONT KNOW 20% 21% IND DEM 50% 51% 30% 32% 20% 17% “ALL results are based on 789 weighted respondents, MoE ==3.49 percent. REP results are based on 400 respondents, MoE "4.90 percent, Totals may not equal 100 erent due 1 rounding. North Star Opinion Research Page 3