CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURA - METODO ARITMETICO O CRECIMI

P P0 r (t t0 )
n!
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

ANO
1981
1993
2007

POB
14,544
19,134
23,367

r prom =

r
382.500
302.357

342.43

r
POBini=
AOini=

AOfin=
POBfut=

Pf P0
t f t0

METICO O CRECIMIENTO LINEAL

Pf P0
t f t0
30558
2028

hab

<<<
<<<

2033
32270.143 hab

<<<

CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURA - METODO DE INTERES

P P0 1 r (t t 0 )
n!
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

ANO
1981
1993
2007

POB
14,544
19,134
23,367

r prom =

Pi+1-Pi

Pi(ti+1-ti)

4,590
4,233

174,528
267,876

0.0263
0.0158

0.0211

METODO DE INTERES SIMPLE

Pi 1 Pi
r
Pi (ti 1 ti )
POBini=
AOini=

35534
2028

AOfin=
POBfut=

2033
39274

hab

<<<
<<<

<<<
hab

CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURA - METODO GEOME

P P0 (1 r )
n!
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

ANO
1961
1972
1981
1993
2005
2007
2034

POB
3,123
3,827
4,352
4,249
4,699
4,949
7,058

Log(1+r)

0.00802604
0.00620338
-0.00086685
0.00364323
0.011256

0.0187
0.0144
-0.0020
0.0084
0.0263

( t t0 )

11
9
12
12
2
r prom =

0.0131

A - METODO GEOMETRICO O DE INTERES COMPUESTO

( t t0 )

POBini=
AOini=

4949
2007

AOfin=
POBfut=

2034
7058

hab

<<<
<<<

<<<
hab

Chart Title
8,000
6,000

Axis Title

f(x) = 47.7509643391x - 9
R = 0.9057635762

4,000
2,000

0.35491829
27
7057.5913293
7056.5943077

0
1940

1960

1980

2000

Axis Title

2020

Chart Title
f(x) = 47.7509643391x - 90573.1722034162
R = 0.9057635762
Column C
Linear (Column C)

1960

1980

2000

Axis Title

2020

2040

CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURA - METODO LOGAR

P P0er (t t0 )
n!
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

ANO
1961
1972
1981
1993
2005
2007
2034

POB
3,123
3,827
4,352
4,249
4,699
4,949
6,688

r prom =

r
0.0185
0.0143
-0.0020
0.0084
0.0259

0.0130

ln Pi 1 ln Pi
ti 1 ti

A - METODO LOGARITMICO O EXPONENCIAL

ln Pi 1 ln Pi
ti 1 ti

Chart Title
8,000
6,000

POBini=
AOini=

4949
2007

hab

<<<
<<< Axis Title 4,000

f(x) = 43.6003699913x - 82352.70

R = 0.9272154901

2,000

AOfin=
POBfut=

2034
6688

<<<
hab

0
1940

1960

1980

2000

Axis Title

2020

2040

Chart Title
f(x) = 43.6003699913x - 82352.7089270248
R = 0.9272154901
Column C

60

Linear (Column C)

1980

2000

Axis Title

2020

2040

CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURA - METODO DE LA PR

P P0 r ( t t0 )
n!
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

ANO
1981
1993
2007

POB
14,544
19,134
23,367

r prom =

r
1.0231
1.0144

1.0187

r ( ti1 ti )

Pi 1
Pi

- METODO DE LA PROGRESION GEOMETRICA

( ti1 ti )

Pi 1
Pi

POBini=
AOini=

34515
2028

AOfin=
POBfut=

2033
37874

hab

<<<
<<<

<<<
hab

CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURA - METODO DE LA PA

P At Bt C
2

n!
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

ANO
1981
1993
2005
2034

POB
4,352
4,249
4,699
8,070

t
0
12
24

A= 1.9201388889
B=
-31.625
C=
4352

- METODO DE LA PARABOLA DE 2DO GRADO

9,000
8,000
7,000

AOini=

1981

6,000

<<<<

5,000

AOfin=
t=
POBfut=

2034
53
8070

<<<<

Axis Title

4,000

Colum

3,000

hab

Linear

2,000
1,000
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Axis Title

2010 2020 2030 2040

le

Column C
Linear (Column C)

CALCULO DE POBLACION FUTURA - METODO DE IN

n!
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Pn P0
Z 1

Pn Pm P2 P1

P
Z 2

Pt : Poblacion a calcular
Pn: ultimo dato censal
ANO
1961
1971
1981
1991

POB
1,385
10,335
12,722
25,123

pob

8,950
2,387
12,401

Nro datos

23,738

Z=
t=

4
10

P=

7912.67

2P=

1725.50

pob

..
-6,563
10,014

3,451
<<<<

A - METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES

P2 P1

Pt Pn m P

m( m 1)
2P
2

m : N de intervalos intercensales, desde el

ultimo censo hasta la fecha pedida
Z: Numero de intervalos
ANO FUT=
m=
An=
Pn=

2021
3
1,991
25,123

<<<<

Pt=

54038

hab

<<< ultimo dato censal

y a bx
AO

POBLACION
(x)
25,865
43,350
76,160
80,865
110,361
118,342
153,886
167,402

1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980

y ae bx

INCREMENTO
PORCENT.(%Y)
67.60
75.69
6.18
36.48
7.23
30.03
8.78

ln(y)
4.21
4.33
1.82
3.60
1.98
3.40
2.17

y=

a+bx

a=
b=

77.5428000
-0.0005105

y=

87.375*e^^(-0.00001

a=
b=

87.375464
-1.61E-05

AOS
DESPUES
DEL CENSO
1,980
1,990
2,000
2,010

POBLACION
ARITMETICO
EXPONENCIAL
(hab)
(hab)
167,402
167,402
154,150
177,340
152,375
186,314
152,002
194,477

25,865

xy

67.60

CRECIMIENTO POR DE
ARITMETICO
INC.
-13,252
-1,774
-374

x2
1748500

668998225

ae bx

CRECIMIENTO POR DECADA

ARITMETICO
EXPONENCIAL
%
INC.
%
-7.92
9,938
5.94
-1.15
8,975
5.06
-0.25
8,163
4.38

y2

x
4569.8959066745

25,865

67.60