Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
METODOS ANALITICOS
Metodo Analitico intercensal.
t
AO
POBLACION
15
5
7
5
7
6
5
10
5
5
1940
1955
1960
1967
1972
1979
1985
1990
2000
2005
2010
23200
28000
31000
42100
48000
51000
60000
67000
69000
75000
80000
POBLACION
23200
SOLUCION
AO
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1967
1970
1972
1975
1979
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
320
320
28000
31000
1585.71429
42100
1180
48000
428.571429
51000
1500
60000
67000
200
69000
75000
80000
Metodo post-censal
AO
POBLACION
1940
23200
1945
24800
1950
26400
1955
28000
1960
31000
1965
38928
1970
45640
1975
49285
1980
52500
1985
60000
POBLACION
23200.0
24800.0
26400.0
28000.0
31000.0
38928.6
42100.0
45640.0
48000.0
49285.7
51000.0
52500.0
60000.0
67000.0
68000.0
69000.0
75000.0
80000.0
P(i+1) -Pi
320
320
320
600
1585.6
1342.4
729
643
1500
1600
1600
1600
3000
7928
6712
3645
3215
7500
Pi(ti+1 -t1)
116000
124000
132000
140000
155000
194640
228200
246425
262500
r
0.0137931
0.01290323
0.01212121
0.02142857
0.05114839
0.03448418
0.01597283
0.01304657
0.02857143
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
67000
68000
69000
75000
80000
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
80000
84057.1429
88114.2857
92171.4286
96228.5714
1400
200
200
1200
1000
11360
811.428571
811.428571
811.428571
811.428571
811.428571
7000
1000
1000
6000
5000
P(i+1) -Pi
Pi(ti+1 -ti)
300000
335000
340000
345000
375000
AO
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
POBLACION
23200
24800
26400
28000
31000
38928
45640
49285
52500
60000
67000
68000
69000
75000
80000
2015
2020
2025
2030
87527
95762
104772
114630
1600
1600
1600
3000
7928
6712
3645
3215
7500
7000
1000
1000
6000
5000
116000
124000
132000
140000
155000
194640
228200
246425
262500
300000
335000
340000
345000
375000
r
0.0137931
0.01290323
0.01212121
0.02142857
0.05114839
0.03448418
0.01597283
0.01304657
0.02857143
0.02333333
0.00298507
0.00294118
0.0173913
0.01333333
0.26345372
0.01881812
0.01881812
0.01881812
0.01881812
0.01881812
0.02333333
0.00298507
0.00294118
0.0173913
0.01333333
0.26345372
0.01881812
poblacion
23200
24800
26400
28000
31000
38928
45640
49285
52500
60000
67000
68000
69000
75000
80000
METODO RACIONAL
DATOS
AO
1963
1982
1988
2013
POBLACIN
600
750
960
1300
CV=(25+10+10)/3=15
Cv=
NAC.
60
95
110
120
DEF.
10
70
100
110
15
CV
MIGRACIONES
0
0
25 750-(600+25)=125
10 960-(750+10)=200
10 1300-(960+10)=330
m=(125+200+330)/3=218.33
m=
= + +
n=
20
Pf=
5966.6
METODFO GRAFICO
1400
1200
1000
POBLACIN
600
750
960
1300
-
POBLACION
AO
1963
1982
1988
2013
2033
800
600
400
200
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
AOS
MTODO ARITMETICO
INTERCENSAL.
POSTCENSAL.
+1
+1
AO
POBLACIN
1963
1973
1982
1983
1988
1993
2003
2013
600
= 0 + ( 0 )
RAZON
7.8947
750
35.0000
960
13.6000
13.6000
1300
POBLACIONES
600
679
750
785
960
1028
1164
1300
2000
2010
+1
+1
AO
1963
1973
1982
1983
1988
1993
2003
2013
POBLACION
600
679
750
785
960
1028
1164
1300
2033
1616
= + ( 0 )
r
7.894736842
7.894736842
35
35
13.6
13.6
13.6
126.5894737
15.82368421
MTODO GEOMETRICO.
AO
1963
1973
1982
1983
1988
1993
2003
2013
2033
POBLACION
600
679
750
785
960
1028
1164
1300
P(i+1) /Pi
0.131578947
0.104651163
0.046666667
0.222929936
0.070833333
0.13229572
0.116838488
0.825794254
0.117970608
1625
AO
1983
1988
1993
2003
2013
P
785
960
1028
1164
1300
5237
AO
2023
POBLACION(P)
1164
PI
PVI
175
68
136
136
129
-107
68
0
-13
2033
1300
P2013
P2023
P2033
1300
1415.75
1647.25
MTODO DE LAPARABOLA.
AO
1982
1988
2013
POBLACION(P)
750
960
1300
0
6
31
= 2 +B*x+C
CENSO
1982
1988
2013
Nro de aos
desde el
comienzo
0
6
31
POBLACION
FUTURA (Y)
750
960
1300
0
36
961
POBLACION
MAS ANTIGUA Y-C
(C )
750
0
750
210
750
550
= 2 +
210 = 62 + 6
550 = 312 + 31
A=
B=
Nro de aos=
Y2033=
-0.672
39.032
51
992.76
GRANDES CIUDADES=
AO
2013
POBLACION(P)
1300
Nro DE AOS=
Pf=
20
2214.890316
218.33
Series1
2010
2020
LA DEMANDA DE AGUA
1. POBLACIN
AO
2011
2021
2031
I
1616
#REF!
#REF!
II
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
III
#REF!
#REF!
1625
AO
2011
2021
2031
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
IV
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
V
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
VI
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
2. DOTACIN
200 lts/p/dia
para 20 aos
3. DOTACIN
2031
#REF!
m3/dia
VII
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
VIII
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!