REENCAUHE DE NEUMATICO

AO

2013
MEDIANA MINERIA

MES/TIPO
ENERO
FEBRERO
MARZO
ABRIL
MAYO
JUNIO
JULIO
AGOSTO
SEPTIEMBRE
OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE
DICIEMBRE
TOTAL

2012
GRAN MINERIA

MEDIANA MINERIA

RADIALES

CONVENCIONALES

XT

RADIALES

850
710
830
910
880
860
700
850
950
870
900
690
10000

900
850
740
830
931
860
650
805
895
800
905
500
9666

250
200
230
280
300
220
140
250
280
275
260
160
2845

700
700
652
840
850
750
500
750
905
850
750
450
8697

ENCAUHE DE NEUMATICOS
2012
MEDIANA MINERIA

2011
GRAN MINERIA

MEDIANA MINERIA

GRAN MINERIA

CONVENCIONALES

XT

RADIALES

CONVENCIONALES

XT

680
900
800
756
893
650
450
900
850
700
650
495
8724

200
220
180
120
150
210
110
250
130
140
180
120
2010

800
853
754
953
790
900
600
850
700
750
900
650
9500

900
750
700
750
650
700
500
590
700
650
800
490
8180

180
220
170
210
150
120
100
190
240
250
300
100
2230

PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE

2
PERIODO

DEMANDAS

PMS(2)

34
(y-Y)^2

PMS(2)

2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

180
220
170
210
150
120
100
190
240
250
300
100
200
220
180
120
150
210
110
250
130
140
180
120
250
200
230
280
300
220
140
250
280
275
260
160

37
TOTAL
PROMEDIO

(y-Y)^2
PMS(4)

PMS(4)
4

200.00

900.00

195.00

225.00

190.00

1600.00

195.00

2025.00

180.00

3600.00

187.50

4556.25

135.00

1225.00

162.50

3906.25

110.00

6400.00

145.00

2025.00

145.00

9025.00

140.00

10000.00

215.00

1225.00

162.50

7656.25

245.00

3025.00

195.00

11025.00

275.00

30625.00

245.00

21025.00

200.00

0.00

222.50

506.25

150.00

4900.00

212.50

56.25

210.00

900.00

205.00

625.00

200.00

6400.00

175.00

3025.00

150.00

0.00

180.00

900.00

135.00

5625.00

167.50

1806.25

180.00

4900.00

165.00

3025.00

160.00

8100.00

147.50

10506.25

180.00

2500.00

180.00

2500.00

190.00

2500.00

175.00

1225.00

135.00

2025.00

157.50

506.25

160.00

1600.00

175.00

3025.00

150.00

10000.00

142.50

11556.25

185.00

225.00

172.50

756.25

225.00

25.00

187.50

1806.25

215.00

4225.00

200.00

6400.00

255.00

2025.00

240.00

3600.00

290.00

4900.00

252.50

1056.25

260.00

14400.00

257.50

13806.25

180.00

4900.00

235.00

225.00

195.00

7225.00

227.50

2756.25

265.00

100.00

222.50

2756.25

277.50

306.25

236.25

564.06

267.50

11556.25

266.25

11289.06

243.75

59414.0625

210.00
7085.00

157187.50

146496.88

196.81
N de terminos

36

N de terminos

36

N de terminos

36

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0

10

11

6
PMS(6)

(y-Y)^2
PMS(6)

175.00

5625.00

161.67

802.78

156.67

6944.44

168.33

6669.44

175.00

15625.00

200.00

10000.00

196.67

11.11

213.33

44.44

218.33

1469.44

208.33

7802.78

186.67

1344.44

161.67

2336.11

180.00

4900.00

165.00

7225.00

170.00

1600.00

161.67

469.44

165.00

225.00

170.00

2500.00

155.00

9025.00

178.33

469.44

170.00

3600.00

186.67

8711.11

210.00

8100.00

230.00

100.00

246.67

11377.78

228.33

469.44

236.67

1877.78

245.00

900.00

244.17

250.69

237.50

6006.25

227.50

51756.25
126481.94

ERROR
=
(PMP2)

67.99

ERROR
=
(PMP4)

65.64

ERROR
=
(PMP6)

60.99

PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE

11

12

13

14 15 16
DEMANDAS

17

18 19
PMS(2)

20 21
PMS(4)

22

23 24
PMS(6)

25

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

38

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO

gra

PERIODO

gra
PRONSTIC
DEMANDA
O PMP(A)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27

180
220
170
210
150
120
100
190
240
250
300
100
200
220
180
120
150
210
110
250
130
140
180
120
250
200
230

28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

(y-Y)^2
PMP(A)

gra
PRONSTIC
O PMP(B)

(y-Y)^2
PMP(B)

190.00
163.00
181.00
147.00
114.00
94.00
153.00
206.00
223.00
260.00
130.00
160.00
194.00
170.00
120.00
129.00
177.00
119.00
197.00
141.00
124.00
154.00
120.00
199.00

400.00
169.00
3721.00
2209.00
5776.00
21316.00
9409.00
8836.00
15129.00
3600.00
8100.00
400.00
5476.00
400.00
8100.00
361.00
5329.00
121.00
3249.00
1521.00
16.00
9216.00
6400.00
961.00

168.00
177.00
153.00
117.00
96.00
144.00
201.00
222.00
255.00
150.00
150.00
192.00
174.00
126.00
126.00
171.00
129.00
183.00
153.00
123.00
150.00
126.00
186.00

324.00
3249.00
2809.00
5329.00
20736.00
11236.00
9801.00
14884.00
3025.00
4900.00
900.00
5184.00
576.00
7056.00
256.00
6241.00
1.00
1849.00
729.00
9.00
10000.00
5476.00
1936.00

280
300
220
140

190.00

8100.00

195.00

7225.00

201.00
242.00
266.00

9801.00
484.00
15876.00

198.00
237.00
264.00

10404.00
289.00
15376.00

250
280
275
260
160

214.00

1296.00

222.00

784.00

142.00
203.00
246.00
248.50

19044.00
5184.00
196.00
7832.25

150.00
192.00
243.00
249.00

16900.00
6889.00
289.00
7921.00

37
TOTAL

237.00

238.50
188028.25

P.P (A)
T-1
T-2
T-3
CONTROL

182583.00

P.P (B)
0.7
0.2
0.1
1.0

T-1
T-2
T-3
CONTROL

0.6
0.3
0.1
1.0

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0

10

RADO
gra
PRONSTIC
O PMP(C)

(y-Y)^2
PMP(C)

117.00
90.00
74.00
115.00
158.00
173.00
200.00
110.00
120.00
150.00
134.00
96.00
99.00
135.00
97.00
147.00
115.00
96.00
118.00
96.00
149.00

289.00
10000.00
27556.00
18225.00
20164.00
5329.00
0.00
12100.00
3600.00
900.00
256.00
12996.00
121.00
13225.00
1089.00
49.00
4225.00
576.00
17424.00
10816.00
6561.00

150.00

16900.00

155.00
186.00
206.00

21025.00
1156.00
4356.00

170.00

6400.00

114.00
153.00
190.00
193.50

27556.00
14884.00
4900.00
1122.25

ERROR
=
(PMP3)

74.37

ERROR
=
(PMP4)

73.28

ERROR
=
(PMP6)

88.08

185.00
263800.25

Nuestra
mejor
opcin
seria el

P.P (C)
T-1
T-2
T-3
CONTROL

0.5
0.2
0.3
1.0

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

DEMANDA

17

18

19

20

21

22

PRONSTICO PMP(A)

23

24

PRONSTICO P

DERADO

24

25

26

27

28

PRONSTICO PMP(B)

29

30

31

32

33

PRONSTICO PMP(C)

34

35

36

37

37

38

PERIODO

DEMANDA

180
220
170
210
150
120
100
190
240
250
300
100
200
220
180
120
150
210
110
250
130
140
180
120
250
200
230
280
300
220
140
250
280
275
260
160

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37

PRONOSTICO =0.4

(y-Y)^2

0.4

180.00
180.00
196.00
185.60
195.36
177.22
154.33
132.60
155.56
189.34
213.60
248.16
188.90
193.34
204.00
194.40
164.64
158.78
179.27
151.56
190.94
166.56
155.94
165.56
147.34
188.40
193.04
207.82
236.69
262.02
245.21
203.13
221.88
245.13
257.08
258.25
218.95

0.00
1600.00
676.00
595.36
2057.53
3273.67
2951.71
3295.02
7130.34
3680.22
7464.77
######
123.29
710.87
576.13
5535.60
214.36
2623.02
4798.44
9689.95
3713.38
705.57
579.00
2075.94
######
134.50
1365.93
5209.25
4007.53
1765.43
######
2197.16
3378.44
892.49
8.55
9652.11

TOTAL

######

ERROR
=0.4

ERROR
=0.7

ERROR
=0.9

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0

10
DEMANDA

SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL

PRONOSTICO =0.7

(y-Y)^2

0.7

180.00
180.00
208.00
181.40
201.42
165.43
133.63
110.09
166.03
217.81
240.34
282.10
154.63
186.39
209.92
188.98
140.69
147.21
191.16
134.35
215.30
155.59
144.68
169.40
134.82
215.45
204.63
222.39
262.72
288.82
240.64
170.19
226.06
263.82
271.65
263.49
191.05

PRONOSTICO =0.9

(y-Y)^2

0.9

0.00
1600.00
1444.00
817.96
2644.02
2063.52
1130.83
6385.87
5472.08
1036.33
3559.03
33161.40
2058.36
1129.68
895.01
4757.56
86.63
3942.87
6587.32
13375.22
7276.88
243.09
1247.69
2440.68
13266.21
238.59
643.44
3318.89
1390.02
4735.52
10129.32
6369.10
2909.74
125.05
135.61
10710.92

180.00
180.00
216.00
174.60
206.46
155.65
123.56
102.36
181.24
234.12
248.41
294.84
119.48
191.95
217.19
183.72
126.37
147.64
203.76
119.38
236.94
140.69
140.07
176.01
125.60
237.56
203.76
227.38
274.74
297.47
227.75
148.77
239.88
275.99
275.10
261.51
170.15

0.00
1600.00
2116.00
1253.16
3187.73
1270.64
555.29
7681.39
3453.25
252.06
2661.28
37963.11
6482.81
786.89
1383.46
4060.17
558.28
3889.12
8791.64
17062.53
11435.66
0.48
1594.45
3136.78
15475.19
1410.76
688.75
2769.33
638.19
6002.18
7699.60
10246.55
1609.82
0.98
227.97
10304.26

157328.43

178249.75

63.30

68.02

72.41

SUAVIZACIN EXPONENCIAL

10

11

DEMANDA

12

13

14

15

16

17

PRONOSTICO =0.4

18

19

20

21

22

23

PRONOSTICO =0.7

24

NCIAL

24

25

26

27

28

PRONOSTICO =0.9

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

REGRESION LINEAL
gra
PERIODO (x)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
X
18.5

DEMANDA (y)

180
220
170
210
150
120
100
190
240
250
300
100
200
220
180
120
150
210
110
250
130
140
180
120
250
200
230
280
300
220
140
250
280
275
260
160

(xy)

x2

180.00
440.00
510.00
840.00
750.00
720.00
700.00
1520.00
2160.00
2500.00
3300.00
1200.00
2600.00
3080.00
2700.00
1920.00
2550.00
3780.00
2090.00
5000.00
2730.00
3080.00
4140.00
2880.00
6250.00
5200.00
6210.00
7840.00
8700.00
6600.00
4340.00
8000.00
9240.00
9350.00
9100.00
5760.00

1.00
4.00
9.00
16.00
25.00
36.00
49.00
64.00
81.00
100.00
121.00
144.00
169.00
196.00
225.00
256.00
289.00
324.00
361.00
400.00
441.00
484.00
529.00
576.00
625.00
676.00
729.00
784.00
841.00
900.00
961.00
1024.00
1089.00
1156.00
1225.00
1296.00

137,960.00

16,206.00

gra
PRONSTICO
Y=a+bX
165.78
167.55
169.33
171.10
172.87
174.65
176.42
178.19
179.96
181.74
183.51
185.28
187.05
188.83
190.60
192.37
194.15
195.92
197.69
199.46
201.24
203.01
204.78
206.56
208.33
210.10
211.87
213.65
215.42
217.19
218.97
220.74
222.51
224.28
226.06
227.83

(y-Y)^2
PMP(A)
202.19
2750.62
0.45
1513.26
523.14
2986.08
5839.69
139.46
3604.38
4659.92
13570.10
7273.03
167.58
971.71
112.37
5237.92
1948.89
198.27
7689.88
2553.80
5074.81
3970.32
614.21
7491.98
1736.47
102.05
328.53
4402.64
7153.71
7.88
6235.65
856.21
3304.89
2572.05
1152.09
4600.95

Y
196.81
111,547.17

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0

10

11

12

164.01

57.28

ERROR

1.7728

RERESIN LINEAL

12

13

14

15

16

DEMANDA (y)

17

18

19

20

21

PRONSTICO Y=a+bX

22

23

24

25

26

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

LA EMPRESA ESPERA VENDER 10000 NEUMATICOS DEL MODELO XT EN LOS PROX

PERIODO

MES

DEMANDAS

PRONOSTICO

ENERO

FEBRERO

MARZO

ABRIL

MAYO

JUNIO

JULIO

AGOSTO

SEPTIEMBRE

10

OCTUBRE

11

NOVIEMBRE

12

DICIEMBRE

13

ENERO

14

FEBRERO

15

MARZO

16

ABRIL

17

MAYO

18

JUNIO

19

JULIO

20

AGOSTO

21

SEPTIEMBRE

22

OCTUBRE

23

NOVIEMBRE

24

DICIEMBRE

25

ENERO

26

FEBRERO

27

MARZO

28

ABRIL

29

MAYO

30

JUNIO

31

JULIO

32

AGOSTO

33

SEPTIEMBRE

34

OCTUBRE

35

NOVIEMBRE

36

DICIEMBRE

TOTAL
PROMEDIO

666
18.50

180
220
170
210
150
120
100
190
240
250
300
100
200
220
180
120
150
210
110
250
130
140
180
120
250
200
230
280
300
220
140
250
280
275
260
160

277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
277.78
7085
196.81

PRONOSTICO E

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
DEMANDAS

PRONOSTICO ESTACIONAL

COS DEL MODELO XT EN LOS PROXIMOS 3 AOS

FACTOR ESTACIONAL

PRONOSTICO ESTACIONAL

0.9146
1.1179
0.8638
1.0670
0.7622
0.6097
0.5081
0.9654
1.2195
1.2703
1.5243
0.5081
1.0162
1.1179
0.9146
0.6097
0.7622
1.0670
0.5589
1.2703
0.6606
0.7114
0.9146
0.6097
1.2703
1.0162
1.1687
1.4227
1.5243
1.1179
0.7114
1.2703
1.4227
1.3973
1.3211
0.8130

254.06
310.52
239.95
296.40
211.72
169.37
141.14
268.17
338.75
352.86
423.43
141.14
282.29
310.52
254.06
169.37
211.72
296.40
155.26
352.86
183.49
197.60
254.06
169.37
352.86
282.29
324.63
395.20
423.43
310.52
197.60
352.86
395.20
388.15
366.98
225.83

10000
277.78

RONOSTICO ESTACIONAL

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
DEMANDAS

PRONOSTICO

PRONOSTICO ESTACIONAL

35 36 37 38

PERIODO

MES

PROMEDIO MISMO
TRIMESTRE

FACTOR
ESTACIONAL

210.00
213.33
193.33
203.33
200.00
183.33
116.67
230.00
216.67
221.67
246.67
126.67
210.00
213.33
193.33
203.33
200.00
183.33
116.67
230.00
216.67
221.67
246.67
126.67
210.00
213.33
193.33
203.33
200.00
183.33
116.67
230.00
216.67
221.67
246.67
126.67

1.0670
1.0840
0.9824
1.0332
1.0162
0.9315
0.5928
1.1687
1.1009
1.1263
1.2534
0.6436
1.0670
1.0840
0.9824
1.0332
1.0162
0.9315
0.5928
1.1687
1.1009
1.1263
1.2534
0.6436
1.0670
1.0840
0.9824
1.0332
1.0162
0.9315
0.5928
1.1687
1.1009
1.1263
1.2534
0.6436
1.0670

ENERO

FEBRERO

MARZO

ABRIL

MAYO

JUNIO

JULIO

AGOSTO

SEPTIEMBRE

10

OCTUBRE

11

NOVIEMBRE

12

DICIEMBRE

13

ENERO

14

FEBRERO

15

MARZO

16

ABRIL

17

MAYO

18

JUNIO

19

JULIO

20

AGOSTO

21

SEPTIEMBRE

22

OCTUBRE

23

NOVIEMBRE

24

DICIEMBRE

25

ENERO

26

FEBRERO

27

MARZO

28

ABRIL

29

MAYO

30

JUNIO

31

JULIO

32

AGOSTO

33

SEPTIEMBRE

34

OCTUBRE

35

NOVIEMBRE

36

DICIEMBRE

37

DEMANDA

180
220
170
210
150
120
100
190
240
250
300
100
200
220
180
120
150
210
110
250
130
140
180
120
250
200
230
280
300
220
140
250
280
275
260
160

1.0840
0.9824
1.0332
1.0162
0.9315
0.5928
1.1687
1.1009
1.1263
1.2534
0.6436

38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

TOTAL
PROMEDIO

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

666
18.50

7085
196.81

139107 .58 36(196.81)(18.50)

B = 2.07
2.07
2
16206 36(18.50)

REGRES

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

REGRESION ESTACIONAL

DEMANDA NO
ESTACIONAL

Y`
168.69
202.96
173.05
203.26
147.60
128.82
168.69
162.58
218.00
221.96
239.36
155.37
187.43
202.96
183.23
116.15
147.60
225.43
185.56
213.92
118.08
124.30
143.61
186.45
234.29
184.51
234.13
271.01
295.21
236.17
236.17
213.92
254.33
244.16
207.44
248.60

X*Y`

168.69
405.91
519.16
813.03
738.02
772.91
1180.83
1300.63
1962.00
2219.61
2632.94
1864.47
2436.64
2841.38
2748.49
1858.36
2509.27
4057.77
3525.63
4278.38
2479.75
2734.56
3303.14
4474.74
5857.31
4797.14
6321.53
7588.31
8561.04
7085.00
7321.17
6845.41
8393.00
8301.35
7260.53
8949.47

X^2

1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
169
196
225
256
289
324
361
400
441
484
529
576
625
676
729
784
841
900
961
1024
1089
1156
1225
1296

PRONOSTICO DE
REGRESION

PRONOSTICO

ERROR

YT=A+BX

Y``

(y-Y)^2

160.59
162.66
164.73
166.8
168.87
170.94
173.01
175.08
177.15
179.22
181.29
183.36
185.43
187.5
189.57
191.64
193.71
195.78
197.85
199.92
201.99
204.06
206.13
208.2
210.27
212.34
214.41
216.48
218.55
220.62
222.69
224.76
226.83
228.9
230.97
233.04
235.11

171.36
176.32
161.82
172.33
171.61
159.24
102.56
204.61
195.03
201.86
227.22
118.01
197.86
203.25
186.23
198.00
196.85
182.38
117.29
233.64
222.37
229.84
258.35
134.00
224.37
230.17
210.63
223.66
222.10
205.52
132.01
262.67
249.72
257.82
289.49
149.99
250.87

74.71
1907.92
66.85
1418.84
467.04
1539.65
6.56
213.45
2022.52
2317.49
5296.90
324.47
4.57
280.69
38.76
6083.45
2195.32
762.98
53.08
267.66
8533.01
8070.78
6139.27
196.01
657.04
910.37
375.31
3174.16
6068.82
209.74
63.82
160.51
916.81
295.31
869.47
100.25

237.18
239.25
241.32
243.39
245.46
247.53
249.60
251.67
253.74
255.81
257.88

7085.00
196.81

257.10
235.03
249.32
247.34
228.66
146.74
291.70
277.07
285.79
320.62
165.97

139107.58 16206
3864.10 450.17

62083.57

158.52
A 196.81 2A .=07
(18.50) 158.52

ERROR

42.73

REGRESIN ESTACIONAL

17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
DEMANDA

PRONOSTICO

PRONOSTICO DE REGRESION

40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

EGRESION