PROYECTO ABC

Supuestos: millones PEN

Ventas ao 1
Desviacin Estndar
Tasa de crecimiento ventas
Costo de ventas
Tasa de crecimiento del costo de ventas
% Gastos de operacin/ventas

110
5%
10.3%
65
4%
19.33%

Aos
Ventas
Costo de ventas
Utilidad Bruta
Total Gastos de Operacin
EBITDA
Impuestos
Inversiones de capital
Flujo de Caja Operativo

-40
-40
VAN 1
TIR 1

Inv. de Capital
Costo de capital
Tasa de impuestos
Correlacin TCV/TCCV

Ao 1
110
65
45
21.3
23.7
7.1

Ao 2
121.3
67.6
53.7
23.5
30.2
9.1

16.6

21.2

34.3
40.90%

de Capital
o de capital
de impuestos
elacin TCV/TCCV

40
10%
30%
0.75

Ao 3
133.8
70.4
63.4
25.9
37.6
11.3

Ao 4
147.6
73.2
74.4
28.5
45.8
13.8

26.3

32.1

serie de datos
distribucion
mejor ajuste
anderson darling
valor p

%Gastos operacin/ ventas

Min
Mas Probable
15%
20%
Inversiones de capital
35
40
45

Max.
23%

Tasa
Crec.Ventas
10.2%
9.2%
10.8%
11.3%
12.0%
11.2%
10.1%
9.1%
9.2%
11.3%
10.2%
10.1%
11.1%

Tasa Crec.
Costo Ventas
4.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.9%
4.7%
3.8%
3.2%
3.4%
3.8%
4.1%
3.3%
4.4%

11.2%
10.5%
9.8%

4.9%
4.6%
3.2%

10.3%
10.6%
9.7%
10.7%
9.3%
9.0%
11.6%
9.3%
9.4%
9.6%
10.5%
9.3%
9.3%
10.4%
9.2%
8.5%
11.5%
10.5%
11.5%
9.8%
10.2%
10.9%
9.7%
9.1%
10.8%
11.4%
9.4%

3.2%
3.7%
3.8%
4.6%
3.7%
3.3%
4.9%
4.0%
3.4%
3.8%
3.9%
3.3%
3.6%
3.4%
3.1%
3.6%
4.5%
4.3%
4.4%
3.6%
4.1%
4.5%
3.3%
3.4%
4.3%
4.9%
3.3%

Serie de datos: Distribucin: Mejor ajuste:

1
0.1
Gamma

9.9%
10.2%
10.1%
12.6%
11.4%
10.1%
10.6%
10.1%
9.4%
9.6%
11.1%
11.5%
10.1%
11.4%
10.3%
10.7%
10.4%
11.3%
11.3%
10.8%
10.0%
9.3%
13.1%
10.0%
9.7%
10.5%
12.0%
10.2%
10.1%
11.1%
10.2%
10.1%
10.1%
11.2%
10.4%
11.4%
12.5%
10.6%
9.8%
9.9%
9.5%
9.1%
9.2%
9.6%
10.8%

3.8%
3.4%
4.9%
4.7%
4.5%
3.7%
3.8%
4.1%
3.3%
3.4%
4.0%
4.7%
4.4%
5.0%
3.8%
5.0%
4.2%
4.5%
4.4%
3.4%
3.7%
3.3%
4.7%
3.8%
3.1%
4.9%
4.9%
3.7%
3.7%
4.8%
3.3%
3.3%
4.7%
4.9%
4.2%
4.6%
4.7%
3.9%
4.2%
4.0%
4.5%
3.2%
3.1%
3.2%
4.4%

10.2%
9.5%
9.4%
8.3%
9.7%
11.1%
12.8%
9.6%
9.3%
10.0%
12.3%
10.0%
9.4%
10.0%
11.1%
10.5%
12.0%
10.3%
9.0%
11.0%
9.0%
9.6%
9.1%
9.7%
9.8%
10.4%
10.6%
11.1%
10.3%
10.1%
10.0%
9.4%
10.1%
10.7%
9.1%
11.2%
9.6%
12.0%
11.8%
12.0%
8.8%
10.9%
10.5%
11.0%
9.8%

4.4%
3.6%
3.7%
3.3%
3.8%
4.9%
5.0%
3.5%
3.3%
3.5%
5.0%
3.1%
3.7%
4.2%
4.3%
3.4%
4.7%
3.2%
3.2%
4.3%
3.8%
3.1%
3.9%
4.0%
3.8%
4.1%
4.7%
4.5%
4.6%
4.6%
4.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.6%
3.5%
4.7%
3.2%
4.9%
4.4%
4.5%
3.1%
4.4%
3.7%
4.5%
4.1%

10.5%
11.0%
9.5%
9.8%
9.0%
10.7%
10.0%
8.6%
9.9%
10.0%
11.4%
8.8%
9.7%
9.4%
9.8%
9.1%
11.9%
10.8%
11.1%
11.4%
11.3%
11.9%
12.5%
12.4%
10.4%
11.1%
10.7%
10.2%
11.4%
10.5%
10.6%
10.7%
11.1%
9.9%
10.3%
10.2%
11.5%
10.8%
9.3%
10.1%
10.2%
9.3%
10.7%
9.9%
10.9%

4.5%
4.1%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
4.1%
4.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.8%
3.8%
3.7%
3.2%
3.2%
3.2%
4.0%
4.9%
4.2%
4.8%
4.0%
4.4%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.2%
4.0%
4.4%
4.3%
4.5%
4.1%
4.7%
3.7%
4.0%
3.8%
3.9%
4.8%
4.2%
4.4%
4.6%
3.7%
4.0%
3.2%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%

9.2%
11.3%
10.7%
9.3%
9.7%
10.3%
11.1%
11.7%
10.5%
10.2%
10.0%
10.1%
10.7%
8.3%
10.5%
10.2%
10.1%
10.9%
8.4%
9.7%
10.9%

3.2%
5.0%
3.8%
4.7%
3.5%
3.2%
3.8%
4.5%
4.3%
3.9%
4.0%
4.6%
3.8%
3.8%
4.8%
4.4%
4.1%
4.7%
3.3%
3.7%
4.0%

9.6%

4.3%

Anderson-Darling Valor P:
0.2050
0.803