Semana Demanda Pronstico Error

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84

80
79
88
58
71
85
79
63
57
50
71
112
53
85
43
47
48
73
23
116
67
39
81
67
58
51
52
51
65
56
46
75
47
69
59
54
46
44
51
41
77
69
54
76
88

72.00
67.67
71.33
69.00
68.50
64.67
58.17
53.17
58.33
62.33
61.00
66.50
65.50
71.33
60.50
58.00
60.00
57.33
55.50
53.50
57.50
56.67
59.67
58.67
58.33
58.33
53.17
53.83
49.17
52.17
54.67
56.00
61.33

-19.00
17.33
-28.33
-22.00
-20.50
8.33
-35.17
62.83
8.67
-23.33
20.00
0.50
-7.50
-20.33
-8.50
-7.00
5.00
-1.33
-9.50
21.50
-10.50
12.33
-0.67
-4.67
-12.33
-14.33
-2.17
-12.83
27.83
16.83
-0.67
20.00
26.67

Error Absoluto Error Cuadrtico

19.00
17.33
28.33
22.00
20.50
8.33
35.17
62.83
8.67
23.33
20.00
0.50
7.50
20.33
8.50
7.00
5.00
1.33
9.50
21.50
10.50
12.33
0.67
4.67
12.33
14.33
2.17
12.83
27.83
16.83
0.67
20.00
26.67

361.00
300.44
802.78
484.00
420.25
69.44
1236.69
3948.03
75.11
544.44
400.00
0.25
56.25
413.44
72.25
49.00
25.00
1.78
90.25
462.25
110.25
152.11
0.44
21.78
152.11
205.44
4.69
164.69
774.69
283.36
0.44
400.00
711.11

APE

APE`

35.85%
20.39%
65.89%
46.81%
42.71%
11.42%
152.90%
54.17%
12.94%
59.83%
24.69%
0.75%
12.93%
39.87%
16.35%
13.73%
7.69%
2.38%
20.65%
28.67%
22.34%
17.87%
1.13%
8.64%
26.81%
32.58%
4.25%
31.30%
36.15%
24.40%
1.23%
26.32%
30.30%

26.39%
25.62%
39.72%
31.88%
29.93%
12.89%
60.46%
118.18%
14.86%
37.43%
32.79%
0.75%
11.45%
28.50%
14.05%
12.07%
8.33%
2.33%
17.12%
40.19%
18.26%
21.76%
1.12%
7.95%
21.14%
24.57%
4.08%
23.84%
56.61%
32.27%
1.22%
35.71%
43.48%

85
86
87
88
89
90

55
74
46
49
80

67.50
69.83
69.33
65.50
64.67
65.33

-12.50
4.17
-23.33
-16.50
15.33

12.50
4.17
23.33
16.50
15.33
15.2719
MAD

156.25
17.36
544.44
272.25
235.11
368.9269
ECM

22.73%
5.63%
50.72%
33.67%
19.17%
0.2805
MAPE

18.52%
5.97%
33.65%
25.19%
23.71%
0.2537
MAPE`

Semana Demanda Pronstico Error

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84

80
79
88
58
71
85
79
63
57
50
71
112
53
85
43
47
48
73
23
116
67
39
81
67
58
51
52
51
65
56
46
75
47
69
59
54
46
44
51
41
77
69
54
76
88

73.50
71.25
71.25
66.75
64.75
63.63
66.50
60.50
61.00
62.75
57.00
61.75
64.25
65.50
62.75
66.38
58.25
58.00
60.13
55.75
56.75
55.38
57.63
58.50
58.88
56.50
55.00
55.63
51.38
55.13
55.13
54.50
57.25

-20.50
13.75
-28.25
-19.75
-16.75
9.38
-43.50
55.50
6.00
-23.75
24.00
5.25
-6.25
-14.50
-10.75
-15.38
6.75
-2.00
-14.13
19.25
-9.75
13.63
1.38
-4.50
-12.88
-12.50
-4.00
-14.63
25.63
13.88
-1.13
21.50
30.75

Error Absoluto Error Cuadrtico

20.50
13.75
28.25
19.75
16.75
9.38
43.50
55.50
6.00
23.75
24.00
5.25
6.25
14.50
10.75
15.38
6.75
2.00
14.13
19.25
9.75
13.63
1.38
4.50
12.88
12.50
4.00
14.63
25.63
13.88
1.13
21.50
30.75

420.25
189.06
798.06
390.06
280.56
87.89
1892.25
3080.25
36.00
564.06
576.00
27.56
39.06
210.25
115.56
236.39
45.56
4.00
199.52
370.56
95.06
185.64
1.89
20.25
165.77
156.25
16.00
213.89
656.64
192.52
1.27
462.25
945.56

APE

APE`

38.68%
16.18%
65.70%
42.02%
34.90%
12.84%
189.13%
47.84%
8.96%
60.90%
29.63%
7.84%
10.78%
28.43%
20.67%
30.15%
10.38%
3.57%
30.71%
25.67%
20.74%
19.75%
2.33%
8.33%
27.99%
28.41%
7.84%
35.67%
33.28%
20.11%
2.08%
28.29%
34.94%

27.89%
19.30%
39.65%
29.59%
25.87%
14.73%
65.41%
91.74%
9.84%
37.85%
42.11%
8.50%
9.73%
22.14%
17.13%
23.16%
11.59%
3.45%
23.49%
34.53%
17.18%
24.60%
2.39%
7.69%
21.87%
22.12%
7.27%
26.29%
49.88%
25.17%
2.04%
39.45%
53.71%

85
86
87
88
89
90

55
74
46
49
80

62.50
63.88
66.75
67.38
63.88
65.25

-7.50
10.13
-20.75
-18.38
16.13

7.50
10.13
20.75
18.38
16.13
15.6414
MAD

56.25
102.52
430.56
337.64
260.02
364.8129
ECM

13.64%
13.68%
45.11%
37.50%
20.16%
0.2934
MAPE

12.00%
15.85%
31.09%
27.27%
25.24%
0.2550
MAPE`

Semana Demanda Pronstico Error

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84

80
79
88
58
71
85
79
63
57
50
71
112
53
85
43
47
48
73
23
116
67
39
81
67
58
51
52
51
65
56
46
75
47
69
59
54
46
44
51
41
77
69
54
76
88

73.40
69.90
72.60
69.80
66.00
62.90
63.90
60.50
67.10
66.70
59.40
62.20
60.40
61.90
62.30
62.70
60.50
64.70
58.70
56.60
60.20
56.80
57.00
57.10
57.40
56.80
56.10
54.70
53.20
56.30
55.70
56.40
57.10

-20.40
15.10
-29.60
-22.80
-18.00
10.10
-40.90
55.50
-0.10
-27.70
21.60
4.80
-2.40
-10.90
-10.30
-11.70
4.50
-8.70
-12.70
18.40
-13.20
12.20
2.00
-3.10
-11.40
-12.80
-5.10
-13.70
23.80
12.70
-1.70
19.60
30.90

Error Absoluto Error Cuadrtico

20.40
15.10
29.60
22.80
18.00
10.10
40.90
55.50
0.10
27.70
21.60
4.80
2.40
10.90
10.30
11.70
4.50
8.70
12.70
18.40
13.20
12.20
2.00
3.10
11.40
12.80
5.10
13.70
23.80
12.70
1.70
19.60
30.90

416.16
228.01
876.16
519.84
324.00
102.01
1672.81
3080.25
0.01
767.29
466.56
23.04
5.76
118.81
106.09
136.89
20.25
75.69
161.29
338.56
174.24
148.84
4.00
9.61
129.96
163.84
26.01
187.69
566.44
161.29
2.89
384.16
954.81

APE

APE`

38.49%
17.76%
68.84%
48.51%
37.50%
13.84%
177.83%
47.84%
0.15%
71.03%
26.67%
7.16%
4.14%
21.37%
19.81%
22.94%
6.92%
15.54%
27.61%
24.53%
28.09%
17.68%
3.39%
5.74%
24.78%
29.09%
10.00%
33.41%
30.91%
18.41%
3.15%
25.79%
35.11%

27.79%
21.60%
40.77%
32.66%
27.27%
16.06%
64.01%
91.74%
0.15%
41.53%
36.36%
7.72%
3.97%
17.61%
16.53%
18.66%
7.44%
13.45%
21.64%
32.51%
21.93%
21.48%
3.51%
5.43%
19.86%
22.54%
9.09%
25.05%
44.74%
22.56%
3.05%
34.75%
54.12%

85
86
87
88
89
90

55
74
46
49
80

60.00
60.10
62.90
63.10
62.90
66.80

-5.00
13.90
-16.90
-14.10
17.10

5.00
13.90
16.90
14.10
17.10
15.1421
MAD

25.00
193.21
285.61
198.81
292.41
351.2711
ECM

9.09%
18.78%
36.74%
28.78%
21.38%
0.2839
MAPE

8.33%
23.13%
26.87%
22.35%
27.19%
0.2462
MAPE`

Semana Demanda Pronstico Error

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84

80
79
88
58
71
85
79
63
57
50
71
112
53
85
43
47
48
73
23
116
67
39
81
67
58
51
52
51
65
56
46
75
47
69
59
54
46
44
51
41
77
69
54
76
88

74.42
72.17
72.67
68.92
68.00
66.08
65.08
60.42
64.83
65.67
64.75
65.58
61.83
62.25
59.42
60.17
60.50
61.92
60.50
62.42
59.00
57.33
59.83
58.00
56.92
55.92
55.33
55.25
54.42
55.42
56.50
57.17
57.25

-21.42
12.83
-29.67
-21.92
-20.00
6.92
-42.08
55.58
2.17
-26.67
16.25
1.42
-3.83
-11.25
-7.42
-9.17
4.50
-5.92
-14.50
12.58
-12.00
11.67
-0.83
-4.00
-10.92
-11.92
-4.33
-14.25
22.58
13.58
-2.50
18.83
30.75

Error Absoluto Error Cuadrtico

21.42
12.83
29.67
21.92
20.00
6.92
42.08
55.58
2.17
26.67
16.25
1.42
3.83
11.25
7.42
9.17
4.50
5.92
14.50
12.58
12.00
11.67
0.83
4.00
10.92
11.92
4.33
14.25
22.58
13.58
2.50
18.83
30.75

458.67
164.69
880.11
480.34
400.00
47.84
1771.01
3089.51
4.69
711.11
264.06
2.01
14.69
126.56
55.01
84.03
20.25
35.01
210.25
158.34
144.00
136.11
0.69
16.00
119.17
142.01
18.78
203.06
510.01
184.51
6.25
354.69
945.56

APE

APE`

40.41%
15.10%
68.99%
46.63%
41.67%
9.47%
182.97%
47.92%
3.23%
68.38%
20.06%
2.11%
6.61%
22.06%
14.26%
17.97%
6.92%
10.57%
31.52%
16.78%
25.53%
16.91%
1.41%
7.41%
23.73%
27.08%
8.50%
34.76%
29.33%
19.69%
4.63%
24.78%
34.94%

28.78%
17.78%
40.83%
31.80%
29.41%
10.47%
64.66%
92.00%
3.34%
40.61%
25.10%
2.16%
6.20%
18.07%
12.48%
15.24%
7.44%
9.56%
23.97%
20.16%
20.34%
20.35%
1.39%
6.90%
19.18%
21.31%
7.83%
25.79%
41.50%
24.51%
4.42%
32.94%
53.71%

85
86
87
88
89
90

55
74
46
49
80

60.67
59.50
60.75
60.08
60.33
63.33

-5.67
14.50
-14.75
-11.08
19.67

5.67
14.50
14.75
11.08
19.67
14.4715
MAD

32.11
210.25
217.56
122.84
386.78
334.9625
ECM

10.30%
19.59%
32.07%
22.62%
24.58%
0.2741
MAPE

9.34%
24.37%
24.28%
18.45%
32.60%
0.2340
MAPE`

Semana

Demanda

Pronstico

Error

40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84

80
79
88
58
71
85
79
63
57
50
71
112
53
85
43
47
48
73
23
116
67
39
81
67
58
51
52
51
65
56
46
75
47
69
59
54
46
44
51
41
77
69
54
76
88

74.42
72.17
72.67
68.92
68.00
66.08
65.08
60.42
64.83
65.67
64.75
65.58
61.83
62.25
59.42
60.17
60.50
61.92
60.50
62.42
59.00
57.33
59.83
58.00
56.92
55.92
55.33
55.25
54.42
55.42
56.50
57.17
57.25

-21.42
12.83
-29.67
-21.92
-20.00
6.92
-42.08
55.58
2.17
-26.67
16.25
1.42
-3.83
-11.25
-7.42
-9.17
4.50
-5.92
-14.50
12.58
-12.00
11.67
-0.83
-4.00
-10.92
-11.92
-4.33
-14.25
22.58
13.58
-2.50
18.83
30.75

Error Absoluto Error Cuadrtico

21.42
12.83
29.67
21.92
20.00
6.92
42.08
55.58
2.17
26.67
16.25
1.42
3.83
11.25
7.42
9.17
4.50
5.92
14.50
12.58
12.00
11.67
0.83
4.00
10.92
11.92
4.33
14.25
22.58
13.58
2.50
18.83
30.75

458.67
164.69
880.11
480.34
400.00
47.84
1771.01
3089.51
4.69
711.11
264.06
2.01
14.69
126.56
55.01
84.03
20.25
35.01
210.25
158.34
144.00
136.11
0.69
16.00
119.17
142.01
18.78
203.06
510.01
184.51
6.25
354.69
945.56

APE

40.41%
15.10%
68.99%
46.63%
41.67%
9.47%
182.97%
47.92%
3.23%
68.38%
20.06%
2.11%
6.61%
22.06%
14.26%
17.97%
6.92%
10.57%
31.52%
16.78%
25.53%
16.91%
1.41%
7.41%
23.73%
27.08%
8.50%
34.76%
29.33%
19.69%
4.63%
24.78%
34.94%

85
86
87
88
89
90

55
74
46
49
80

60.67
59.50
60.75
60.08
60.33
63.33

-5.67
14.50
-14.75
-11.08
19.67

1 (Desviacin Estndar de los Errores del

Pronstico)

Se asume un Sistema de Control Continuo (s, Q)

L (Lead
Time)
Nivel de
Servicio
k
Inventario
de
Seguridad

Semana

95%
1.64485363

30.1040811

Unidades

5.67
14.50
14.75
11.08
19.67
14.4715
MAD

32.11
210.25
217.56
122.84
386.78
334.9625
ECM

18.13711996

18.30198177

10.30%
19.59%
32.07%
22.62%
24.58%
27.41%
MAPE

APE`

Inventario
Mximo

28.78%
17.78%
40.83%
31.80%
29.41%
10.47%
64.66%
92.00%
3.34%
40.61%
25.10%
2.16%
6.20%
18.07%
12.48%
15.24%
7.44%
9.56%
23.97%
20.16%
20.34%
20.35%
1.39%
6.90%
19.18%
21.31%
7.83%
25.79%
41.50%
24.51%
4.42%
32.94%
53.71%

104.52
102.27
102.77
99.02
98.10
96.19
95.19
90.52
94.94
95.77
94.85
95.69
91.94
92.35
89.52
90.27
90.60
92.02
90.60
92.52
89.10
87.44
89.94
88.10
87.02
86.02
85.44
85.35
84.52
85.52
86.60
87.27
87.35

9.34%
24.37%
24.28%
18.45%
32.60%
23.40%
MAPE`

90.77
89.60
90.85
90.19
90.44

300

250

200

Inventario Mximo
150

Pronstico
Demanda

100

50

0
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