CENTRALES ELCTRICAS I

En el cuadro adjunto se remite la informacin estadstica de la ciudad de Chiclayo. Se pide:

a) Verificar, validar la informacin.
b) Completar la informacin necesaria de las otras variables independientes de meercado elctrico.
c) Elabore, sustentando cada paso, el pronstico de corto plazo para Chiclayo.
d) Elabore, sustentando cada paso, el pronstico de mediano plazo para Chiclayo.

NUMERO DE USUARIOS CHICLAYO

AOS
1,986
1,987
1,988
1,989
1,990
1,991
1,992
1,993
1,994
1,995
1,996
1,997
1,998
1,999
2,000
2,001
2,002
2,003
2,004

AD

AC

30,331
33,832
36,638
39,183
42,484
45,467
48,376
51,305
52,665
58,626
59,608
58,182
60,548
64,665
69,381
72,610
74,589
76,023
77,937

4,438
4,664
5,037
5,330
5,779
5,694
6,458
6,870
6,975
6,887
7,099
6,784
8,647
8,378
8,447
8,521
8,572
8,631
8,744

AI
155
171
212
251
269
280
285
299
302
319
328
325
332
336
324
311
322
324
331

CONSUMO DE ENERGIA (MWh) CHICLAYO

VAP
MWh
5,344
4,864
6,458
4,340
4,536
3,872
5,112
6,117
7,725
7,315
7,883
7,948
8,140
8,665
5,274
6,354
6,673
6,725
6,467

VSD
MWh
36,854
42,785
48,779
51,413
59,287
67,266
70,467
73,528
73,770
71,499
68,927
70,382
63,609
67,157
72,228
73,671
69,914
80,303
86,923

VSC
MWh
19,207
20,603
22,647
23,288
21,690
20,563
25,009
30,345
35,234
37,654
41,633
40,294
45,507
42,579
48,619
47,833
59,794
52,482
52,652

VSI
MWh
15,711
18,447
17,686
17,034
17,112
18,618
20,584
21,521
24,846
21,929
23,804
24,423
24,612
25,840
26,842
27,245
28,641
29,574
30,656

EP
(%)
20,898
25,316
25,230
24,211
20,628
25,594
25,567
39,190
42,614
45,256
36,842
37,192
33,906
28,589
20,757
17,728
17,162
16,908
18,023

ado elctrico.

MD
(MW)
32.00
35.30
37.50
36.90
37.00
39.00
41.90
47.80
50.90
50.30
48.40
46.60
44.00
41.90
40.60
37.80
38.00
38.30
39.00

PBI
M NS 94
3,633
3,283
3,453
3,050
3,170
3,143
3,282
3,926
4,177
4,221
4,171
4,220
4,046
4,255
4,355
4,469
4,808
5,120
6,467

Poblacin
2012 583 159
2013 588 995

AOS

AD

AC

AI

1,986
1,987
1,988
1,989
1,990
1,991
1,992
1,993
1,994
1,995
1,996
1,997
1,998
1,999
2,000
2,001
2,002
2,003
2,004

30,331
33,832
36,638
39,183
42,484
45,467
48,376
51,305
52,665
58,626
59,608
58,182
60,548
64,665
69,381
72,610
74,589
76,023
77,937

4,438
4,664
5,037
5,330
5,779
5,694
6,458
6,870
6,975
6,887
7,099
6,784
8,647
8,378
8,447
8,521
8,572
8,631
8,744

155
171
212
251
269
280
285
299
302
319
328
325
332
336
324
311
322
324
331

VAP
MWh
5,344
4,864
6,458
4,340
4,536
3,872
5,112
6,117
7,725
7,315
7,883
7,948
8,140
8,665
5,274
6,354
6,673
6,725
6,467

VSD
MWh
36,854
42,785
48,779
51,413
59,287
67,266
70,467
73,528
73,770
71,499
68,927
70,382
63,609
67,157
72,228
73,671
69,914
80,303
86,923

VSC
MWh
19,207
20,603
22,647
23,288
21,690
20,563
25,009
30,345
35,234
37,654
41,633
40,294
45,507
42,579
48,619
47,833
59,794
52,482
52,652

VSI
MWh
15,711
18,447
17,686
17,034
17,112
18,618
20,584
21,521
24,846
21,929
23,804
24,423
24,612
25,840
26,842
27,245
28,641
29,574
30,656

EP
MWh
20,898
25,316
25,230
24,211
20,628
25,594
25,567
39,190
42,614
45,256
36,842
37,192
33,906
28,589
20,757
17,728
17,162
16,908
18,023

MD
MW
32.00
35.30
37.50
36.90
37.00
39.00
41.90
47.80
50.90
50.30
48.40
46.60
44.00
41.90
40.60
37.80
38.00
38.30
39.00

VE
MWh
77,116
86,699
95,570
96,075
102,625
110,319
121,172
131,511
141,575
138,397
142,247
143,047
141,868
144,241
152,963
155,103
165,022
169,084
176,698

ED
MWh
98,014
112,015
120,800
120,286
123,253
135,913
146,739
170,701
184,189
183,653
179,089
180,239
175,774
172,830
173,720
172,831
182,184
185,992
194,721

PBI
M NS 94
3,633,000
3,283,000
3,453,000
3,050,000
3,170,000
3,853,946
3,753,025
4,106,606
4,534,562
5,137,865
5,156,300
5,509,056
5,477,927
5,529,339
5,670,992
5,664,115
5,969,347
6,192,567
6,489,810