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ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE

EL CAUDAL EN EL RIO
CAPLINA - 2013
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL JORGE BASADRE
GROHOMANN

ESCUELA ACADEMICO PROFECIONAL INGENIERIA GEOLOGICA GEOTECNIA


GOMEZ SALCEDO, Walter Smith 2008 - 32826

ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE EL CAUDAL EN EL


RIO CAPLINA - 2013
1.- PROVABILIDAD QUE SE PRESENTEN CAUDALES MEDIOS MAYORES A 5 M3
2.- PROVABILIDAD QUE SE PRESENTEN CAUDALES MEDIOS MAYORES A 1 M3
3.- PARA CAUDALES MAXIMOS PROBABILIDAD QUE OCURRA UNA AVENIDA
4.- QUE HALLAN SUPERADO UN 10% DE LOS AOS
RESOLVER MEDIANTE DISTRIBUCION NORMAL GAUSS
RESOLVER MEDIANTE DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBEL

SOLUCION:
A) OBTENCION DE DATOS:

LA INFORMACION FUE OBTENIDA POR MEDIO DE LA AUTORIDAD NACIONAL DEL AGUA ,


EL PROYECTO ESPECIAL TACNA

AUTORIDAD NACIONAL DEL AGUA ( CAUDAL MEDIO DIARIO (M3/S)


ESTACIUON

CALIENTES

LATITUD

1751'0''

AAA

CODIGO

205201

LONGITUD

7007'0''

ALA

ESTACION

HIDROMETRICA

ALTITUD

1300

AO

MSNM

CUENCA

CAPLINA
OCOA

AGOSTO

SEPTIEMBRE

OCTUBRE

0.63

0.58

0.55

0.64

0.59

0.55

0.65

0.58

0.65

CAPLINA

TACNA
CAPLINA
OCOA

2012

DIA/MES

RIO

2013
NOVIEMBRE

DICIEMBRE

ENERO

FEBRERO

MARZO

ABRIL

MAYO

JUNIO

JULIO

0.69

0.55

0.65

1.03

0.71

0.63

0.63

0.59

0.58

0.68

0.48

0.66

1.16

0.67

0.61

0.69

0.64

0.54

0.52

0.6

0.55

0.72

1.36

0.74

0.67

0.71

0.63

0.51

0.46

0.6

0.68

0.58

1.06

1.02

0.74

0.71

0.71

0.65

0.58

0.6

0.52

0.57

0.69

0.57

1.03

0.74

0.68

0.69

0.67

0.61

1.03

0.54

0.61

0.7

0.55

1.34

1.05

0.73

0.69

0.68

0.6

0.63

0.59

0.54

0.67

0.69

0.53

1.13

1.55

0.74

0.66

0.67

0.6

0.63

0.57

0.54

0.67

0.8

0.52

0.98

1.93

0.73

0.65

0.6

0.59

0.63

0.58

0.52

0.7

0.82

0.48

0.96

3.35

0.66

0.61

0.69

0.64

10

0.62

0.57

0.5

0.63

0.74

0.74

0.94

2.72

0.62

0.63

0.74

0.65

11

0.61

0.51

0.48

0.67

0.7

0.99

1.23

0.7

0.67

0.67

0.63

12

0.57

0.51

0.49

0.68

0.77

1.22

1.09

1.06

0.69

0.68

0.66

0.64

13

0.58

0.56

0.52

0.63

0.73

1.45

1.03

1.08

0.68

0.67

0.7

0.64

14

0.61

0.58

0.52

0.57

0.73

1.06

1.03

1.15

0.7

0.66

0.69

0.67

15

0.6

0.57

0.53

0.54

0.75

1.95

0.96

1.1

0.71

0.68

0.67

0.68

16

0.61

0.56

0.53

0.54

0.78

2.12

0.88

1.11

0.68

0.7

0.53

0.67

17

0.61

0.57

0.51

0.63

0.81

2.33

0.97

1.07

0.62

0.64

0.63

0.67

18

0.58

0.57

0.51

0.58

0.9

2.65

0.89

1.06

0.69

1.05

0.67

0.69

19

0.59

0.49

0.42

0.63

1.13

2.61

0.84

1.07

0.7

1.03

0.63

0.69

20

0.49

0.57

0.49

0.63

0.76

2.04

0.95

1.03

0.68

1.12

0.6

0.69

21

0.6

0.58

0.51

0.68

0.65

1.41

0.92

0.94

0.68

1.03

0.62

0.66

22

0.59

0.57

0.49

0.65

0.62

1.26

0.86

0.69

0.87

0.59

0.69

23

0.6

0.56

0.49

0.65

0.99

0.98

1.06

0.87

0.71

0.79

0.6

0.61

24

0.6

0.55

0.49

0.64

1.01

1.02

1.04

0.96

0.65

0.75

0.57

0.57

25

0.56

0.55

0.49

0.61

0.86

0.94

1.04

1.02

0.65

0.74

0.61

0.59

26

0.56

0.51

0.46

0.58

0.77

0.92

0.95

0.89

0.67

0.77

0.7

0.6

27

0.5

0.51

0.48

0.62

0.77

0.87

0.77

0.68

0.76

0.68

0.58

28

0.49

0.56

0.58

0.63

0.64

0.79

0.98

0.82

0.69

0.74

0.68

0.57

29

0.55

0.54

0.59

0.66

0.63

0.83

0.76

0.7

0.66

0.68

0.57

30

0.54

0.55

0.59

0.65

0.58

0.86

0.72

0.71

0.67

0.68

0.57

31

0.55

0.61

0.55

0.78

0.7

0.71

0.58

0.59

PROYECTO ESPECIAL TACNA


GERENCIA DE ESTUDIOS Y PROYECTOS
REA DE HIDROLOGA

DESCARGAS MEDIAS MENSUALES (m3/s)


CDIGO ESTACIN

: 19121113

NOMBRE DE ESTACIN

: BOCATOMA CALIENTES

CATEG. DE ESTACIN

: LIMNIGRFICA

DPTO.

: TACNA

LATITUD

: 17 51'

CUENCA

: CAPLINA

PROV.

: TACNA

ALTITUD

: 1 300

RO

: CAPLINA

DIST.

: PACHA

FUENTE

: DRAG.T

LONGITUD : 70 07'

m.s.n.m

AO

ENE

FEB

MAR

ABR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AGO

SET

OCT

NOV

DIC

PROM D.STD

1939

2.500

4.240

4.930

2.510

1.010

0.990

0.940

0.930

0.940

0.940

0.940

0.940

1.818

1.429

1940

1.070

1.050

0.900

0.960

0.960

0.960

0.960

0.960

0.960

0.960

0.960

0.960

0.972

0.045

1941

1.080

1.070

1.070

0.910

0.860

0.900

0.900

0.900

0.900

0.900

0.870

0.940

0.942

0.082

1942

2.360

1.620

1.190

1.110

0.960

0.970

0.990

1.030

0.980

0.920

0.870

1.020

1.168

0.423

1943

1.340

12.560

8.420

1.190

0.840

1.100

1.060

1.020

0.990

0.990

0.970

0.910

2.616

3.785

1944

0.980

17.260

2.000

0.880

0.800

0.810

0.770

0.750

0.750

0.690

0.670

0.680

2.253

4.740

1945

0.980

0.960

1.590

1.190

0.870

0.760

0.680

0.670

0.760

0.760

0.710

0.630

0.880

0.276

1946

1.120

4.660

0.820

0.830

0.810

0.830

0.380

0.530

0.670

1.170

1.182

1.245

1947

4.510

0.680

0.570

0.620

0.630

0.620

0.620

0.610

0.610

0.450

0.460

0.690

0.923

1.132

1948

0.670

1.020

1.890

0.730

0.660

0.590

0.570

0.570

0.570

0.520

0.480

0.590

0.738

0.388

1949

5.710

4.180

2.870

1.250

0.840

0.760

0.780

0.700

0.620

0.550

0.490

0.660

1.618

1.712

1950

0.790

0.830

1.080

0.790

0.830

0.950

0.780

0.720

0.500

0.540

0.620

0.660

0.758

0.164

1951

1.310

1.740

1.900

0.630

0.610

0.510

0.480

0.500

0.510

0.660

0.885

0.550

1952

3.060

1.700

0.900

0.800

0.820

0.770

0.730

0.720

0.940

0.710

0.740

0.720

1.051

0.689

1953

1.050

2.870

3.950

0.850

0.790

0.720

0.720

0.670

0.660

0.730

0.740

0.670

1.202

1.062

1954

0.800

4.760

2.060

1.120

1.040

0.920

0.840

0.830

0.770

0.700

0.820

0.850

1.293

1.150

1955

2.040

2.090

2.330

0.960

1.000

0.840

0.840

0.780

0.760

0.670

0.660

0.780

1.146

0.619

1956

0.780

0.950

0.790

0.670

0.720

0.650

0.640

0.640

0.610

0.610

0.610

0.660

0.694

0.102

1957

0.690

0.800

0.890

0.480

0.670

0.740

0.690

0.630

0.720

0.710

0.680

0.990

0.724

0.128

1958

1.310

0.930

1.370

0.620

0.640

0.640

0.630

0.610

0.620

0.610

0.660

0.620

0.772

0.280

1959

0.711

0.621

1.150

0.794

0.624

0.619

0.628

0.600

0.603

0.596

0.608

0.675

0.686

0.157

1960

1.595

1.155

0.731

0.726

0.677

0.602

0.607

0.614

0.610

0.607

0.612

0.695

0.769

0.302

1961

1.544

2.130

1.043

0.649

0.644

0.643

0.568

0.530

0.545

0.508

0.526

0.724

0.838

0.504

1962

1.041

1.286

0.753

0.761

0.527

0.498

0.676

0.496

0.549

0.523

0.557

0.583

0.688

0.246

1963

0.772

1.833

2.069

0.762

0.624

0.593

0.563

0.593

0.635

0.581

0.593

0.619

0.853

0.520

1964

0.560

0.843

1.047

0.956

0.804

0.793

0.831

0.728

0.648

0.658

0.657

0.559

0.757

0.151

1965

0.607

1.011

0.683

0.584

0.685

0.644

0.615

0.622

0.660

0.621

0.591

0.598

0.660

0.116

1966

0.539

0.724

0.701

0.545

0.526

0.500

0.543

0.534

0.535

0.543

0.519

0.564

0.075

1967

0.490

0.753

1.015

0.531

0.495

0.693

0.649

0.789

0.719

0.705

0.679

0.685

0.684

0.143

1968

0.933

1.555

1.665

0.990

0.962

0.945

0.787

0.542

0.617

0.554

0.635

0.642

0.902

0.370

1969

1.830

3.728

1.378

0.760

0.698

0.767

0.777

0.751

0.607

0.588

0.555

0.608

1.087

0.913

1970

0.747

0.818

0.711

0.561

0.525

0.523

0.548

0.556

0.556

0.570

0.560

0.568

0.604

0.097

1971

0.769

1.598

0.872

0.554

0.540

0.564

0.545

0.510

0.524

0.440

0.441

0.472

0.652

0.324

1972

1.069

1.020

1.024

0.986

0.677

0.584

0.574

0.567

0.561

0.541

0.601

0.613

0.735

0.217

1973

1.358

2.714

2.304

0.904

0.756

0.694

0.688

0.657

0.576

0.559

0.501

0.509

1.018

0.739

1974

1.481

1.266

1.262

0.776

0.716

0.734

0.664

0.736

0.697

0.585

0.614

0.555

0.841

0.311

1975

1.303

2.440

2.879

1.016

0.822

0.728

0.724

0.641

0.615

0.613

0.593

0.910

1.107

0.759

1976

1.720

3.262

2.284

0.970

0.814

0.754

0.708

0.706

0.735

0.665

0.618

0.653

1.157

0.837

1977

1.137

2.677

3.888

0.987

0.878

0.818

0.757

0.756

0.669

0.635

0.598

0.613

1.201

1.018

1978

0.971

1.153

0.694

0.671

0.635

0.668

0.615

0.594

0.569

0.543

0.544

0.529

0.682

0.189

1979

0.688

0.562

1.186

0.673

0.614

0.630

0.628

0.588

0.567

0.533

0.486

0.566

0.643

0.180

1980

0.573

0.533

0.798

0.584

0.556

0.550

0.560

0.529

0.486

0.515

0.462

0.444

0.549

0.090

1981

0.563

1.336

1.097

0.709

0.602

0.593

0.573

0.556

0.542

0.488

0.461

0.488

0.667

0.269

1982

0.624

0.721

0.646

0.557

0.547

0.590

0.539

0.501

0.505

0.498

0.476

0.514

0.560

0.073

1983

0.424

0.376

0.440

0.440

0.475

0.476

0.494

0.445

0.464

0.432

0.389

0.407

0.439

0.036

1984

0.815

1.887

1.490

0.777

0.573

0.585

0.578

0.545

0.444

0.512

0.612

0.544

0.780

0.445

1985

0.568

4.174

2.134

1.069

0.707

0.640

0.624

0.566

0.529

0.497

0.553

0.624

1.057

1.082

1986

1.684

2.854

1.723

1.032

0.801

0.742

0.702

0.680

0.598

0.549

0.548

0.626

1.045

0.701

1987

2.325

1.241

0.789

0.679

0.680

0.671

0.750

0.641

0.574

0.560

0.523

0.501

0.828

0.510

1988

0.895

0.943

1.053

0.885

0.674

0.644

0.640

0.602

0.544

0.496

0.433

0.496

0.692

0.202

1989

0.623

3.841

0.932

0.832

0.698

0.619

0.594

0.507

0.523

0.488

0.451

0.402

0.876

0.946

1990

0.459

0.486

0.541

0.468

0.497

0.534

0.512

0.486

0.431

0.400

0.415

0.676

0.492

0.073

1991

1.133

0.816

1.258

0.784

0.659

0.693

0.636

0.592

0.491

0.432

0.418

0.405

0.693

0.273

1992

0.467

0.367

0.355

0.395

0.433

0.492

0.504

0.454

0.386

0.360

0.368

0.443

0.419

0.053

1993

1.363

0.708

0.973

0.565

0.474

0.458

0.464

0.496

0.393

0.391

0.370

0.456

0.593

0.295

1994

1.132

2.220

0.740

0.608

0.515

0.542

0.482

0.461

0.417

0.408

0.380

0.474

0.698

0.521

1995

0.521

0.401

1.585

0.548

0.509

0.483

0.434

0.415

0.390

0.355

0.330

0.346

0.526

0.341

1996

0.701

1.058

0.671

0.528

0.448

0.374

0.447

0.404

0.384

0.339

0.349

0.346

0.504

0.213

1997

1.497

4.715

0.502

0.807

0.563

0.553

0.544

0.555

0.499

0.433

0.407

0.420

0.958

1.220

1998

3.859

5.110

0.608

0.469

0.459

0.475

0.470

0.451

0.376

0.379

3.820

0.402

1.407

1.752

1999

0.456

3.446

4.106

2.036

0.818

0.633

0.599

0.520

0.465

0.475

0.456

0.466

1.206

1.286

2000

1.776

3.208

3.029

1.098

0.774

0.737

0.695

0.604

0.543

0.511

0.503

0.496

1.165

0.982

2001

2.117

9.171

6.538

1.630

1.001

0.975

1.103

1.082

0.908

0.805

0.834

0.789

2.246

2.707

2002

0.736

1.715

2.060

1.240

0.953

0.884

0.954

0.815

0.717

0.707

0.674

0.656

1.009

0.448

2003

0.667

0.679

0.842

0.725

0.657

0.645

0.645

0.608

0.560

0.514

0.486

0.477

0.625

0.105

2004

0.675

1.107

0.631

0.557

0.548

0.559

0.592

0.537

0.489

0.461

0.452

0.454

0.589

0.178

2005

0.678

1.163

0.864

0.629

0.568

0.578

0.589

0.544

0.601

0.467

0.417

0.466

0.630

0.204

2006

0.845

1.806

2.020

1.411

0.766

0.715

0.657

0.609

0.591

0.595

0.529

0.503

0.921

0.523

2007

0.776

0.945

1.284

0.692

0.590

0.579

0.588

0.557

0.515

0.474

0.445

0.488

0.661

0.242

2008

1.652

0.766

0.792

0.625

0.594

0.607

0.580

0.536

0.504

0.476

0.425

0.477

0.670

0.329

2009

0.625

1.169

1.313

0.597

0.540

0.533

0.534

0.498

0.453

0.425

0.431

0.422

0.628

0.295

2010

0.469

0.696

0.518

0.435

0.495

0.492

0.490

0.453

0.429

0.394

0.365

0.405

0.470

0.085

PROM

1.218

2.205

1.572

0.833 0.692 0.676 0.656 0.628 0.602 0.570 0.613

0.608

0.906

-.-

STD

0.927

2.673

1.376

0.350 0.157 0.152 0.150 0.148 0.150 0.145 0.414

0.172

0.411

-.-

MAX

5.710

17.260

8.420

2.510 1.040 1.100 1.103 1.082 0.990 0.990 3.820

1.170

2.616

-.-

MIN

0.424

0.367

0.355

0.395 0.433 0.374 0.380 0.404 0.376 0.339 0.330

0.346

0.419

-.-

B) CAUDALES MAYORES A 0.5 M3 /S


ANA: 2012 -2013
AO
DIA/MES

2012
AGOSTO

SEPTIEMBRE

OCTUBRE

2013
NOVIEMBRE

DICIEMBRE

ENERO

FEBRERO

MARZO

ABRIL

MAYO

JUNIO

JULIO

SUMA

18.26

17.17

16.04

18.61

23.22

34.64

27.09

36.44

20.76

22.93

19.67

19.52

PROMEDIO

0.59

0.55

0.52

0.60

0.75

1.12

0.87

1.18

0.66968

0.73968

0.63452

0.63

D.STA

0.04

0.14

0.04

0.12

0.13

0.65

0.32

0.56

0.12828

0.13676

0.12696

0.04

( )

PROM 2012
AGO 2013
JULIO

0.738

DV

0.215

C) CAUDALES MAYORES A 1 M3 /S

( )

D) PROBABILIDAD QUE ACURRA UNA AVENIDA


LA EVALUACION CORRESPONDE A UN CAUDAL MAYOR A 1.18 m3/s EL CUAL ES EL MAXIMO CAUDAL ENTRE AGO 2012 Y JULIO 2013

( )

E) CAUDALES QUE HALLAN SUPERADO UN 10% DE LOS AOS


TOMAMOS LA BASE DE DATOS DE LA ESTACI: BOCATOMA CALIENTES DESDE EL AO
1939 -2010

AO

PROM

1939

1.818

1940

0.972

1941

0.942

1942

1.168

1943

2.616

1944

2.253

1945

0.88

1946

1.182

1947

0.923

1948

0.738

1949

1.618

1950

0.758

1951

0.885

1952

1.051

1953

1.202

1954

1.293

1955

1.146

1956

0.694

1957

0.724

1958

0.772

1959

0.686

1960

0.769

1961

0.838

1962

0.688

1963

0.853

1964

0.757

1965

0.66

1966

0.564

1967

0.684

1968

0.902

1969

0.913

1970

0.097

1971

0.324

1972

0.217

1973

0.739

1974

0.311

1975

0.759

1976

0.837

1977

1.018

1978

0.189

1979

0.18

1980

0.09

1981

0.269

1982

0.073

1983

0.036

1984

0.445

1985

1.082

1986

0.701

1987

0.51

1988

0.202

1989

0.946

1990

0.073

1991

0.273

1992

0.053

1993

0.295

1994

0.521

1995

0.341

1996

0.213

1997

1.22

1998

1.752

1999

1.286

2000

0.982

2001

2.707

2002

0.448

2003

0.105

2004

0.178

2005

0.204

2006

0.523

2007

0.242

2008

0.329

2009

0.295

2010

0.085

PROM. Q ANUALES = 0.9078


DV = 0.41105547

TENEMOS LA PROBABILIDAD DE UN 10 % UTILIZANDO INV.NORM.STAND. UNA


FUNCION DE EXCEL PARA CALCULAR z OBTENEMOS LO SIGUIENTE
( )

REMPLAZANDO

LOS CAUDALES QUE SUPERAN EL 10 % SON LOS CAUDALES MAYORES A

RESOLVER MEDIANTE DISTRIBUCION DE GUMBEL


LA PROBABILIDAD DE QUE SE PRESENTE UN VALOR INFERIOR A X ES
(

( )

DONDE:

AUTORIDAD NACIONAL DEL AGUA (CAUDAL MEDIO DIARIO MAXIMOS (M3/S))


AO

2012

2013

DIA/MES AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO
Q MAX

0.65

1.03

0.61

0.7

1.13

2.65

1.34

3.35

0.74

1.229
0.872

PROM DE Q MAXIMOS=
DV=

1- CAUDALES MAYORES A 0.5 M3 /S


MEDIANTE TABLAS TENEMOS

( )

( )

( )
LA PROBABILIDAD DE QUE SE PRESENTE CAUDALES MAYORES SERIA:

1.12

0.74

0.69

2- CAUDALES MAYORES A 1 M3 /S
MEDIANTE TABLAS TENEMOS

( )

( )

( )

3- PROBABILIDAD QUE ACURRA UNA AVENIDA


LA EVALUACION CORRESPONDE A UN CAUDAL MAYOR A 3.35 m3/s EL CUAL ES EL
MAXIMO CAUDAL ENTRE AGO 2012 Y JULIO 2013
MEDIANTE TABLAS TENEMOS

( )
(

( )
( )

4- CAUDALES QUE HALLAN SUPERADO UN 10% DE LOS AOS

Ao
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

Q MAX
4.93
1.07
1.08
2.36
12.56
17.26
1.59
4.66
4.51
1.89
5.71
1.08
1.9
3.06
3.95
4.76
2.33
0.95
0.99
1.37
1.15
1.595
2.13
1.286
2.069
1.047
1.011
0.724
1.015
1.665
3.728
0.818
1.598
1.069
2.714
1.481

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

2.879
3.262
3.888
1.153
1.186
0.798
1.336
0.721
0.494
1.887
4.174
2.854
2.325
1.053
3.841
0.676
1.258
0.504
1.363
2.22
1.585
1.058
4.715
5.11
4.106
3.208
9.171
2.06
0.842
1.107
1.163
2.02
1.284
1.652
1.313
0.696

PROM. Q ANUALES = 2.5288


DV = 2.6517

TOMAMOS LA BASE DE DATOS DE LA ESTACIN: BOCATOMA CALIENTES DESDE EL AO


1939 -2010 LA CUAL COMPRENDE DE 70 MUESTRAS DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS
CORRESPONDIENTES A CADA AO
MEDIANTE TABLAS TENEMOS

( )

( ( )))

REMPLAZAMOS: F(x)=1-0.1=0.9

( ( )))

))

LOS CAUDALES QUE SUPERAN EL 10 % SON LOS CAUDALES MAYORES A