chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541547

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Chemical Engineering Research and Design
j our nal homepage: www. el sevi er . com/ l ocat e/ cher d
Analysing gas well production data using a simplied
decline curve analysis method
Alireza Bahadori

Environmental Innovations Research Centre, School of Environmental Science & Management, Southern Cross University, PO Box 157,
Lismore, New South Wales, Australia
a b s t r a c t
Decline curves are one of the most extensively used forms of data analysis employed in evaluating gas reserves and
predicting future production. The parameters determinedfromthe classical t of historical data canbe usedtopredict
future production and the most popular and widely accepted method is Arps equation. In the present work, simple-
to-use method, which is easier than existing approaches, less complicated with fewer calculations, is formulated
to arrive at an appropriate estimation of nominal (initial) decline rate, and the Arps decline-curve exponent. The
results can be used in follow-up calculations for analysis of past trends of decline in production performance for
gas wells as well as reservoirs. Using this method is quite simple and accurate to generate the coefcients of the
equations instead of opting for ready-generated coefcients with uncertainty. The engineers can easily develop their
own computer program to compute the coefcients and hence obtain the solution for gas reserves and production
performance in reservoirs.
2011 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Decline-curve analysis; Arps decline-curve exponent; Cumulative gas production; Gas reservoir
1. Introduction
Estimating reserves and predicting production in reservoirs
has beena challenge for a long time (Khanamiri, 2010). Decline
curve analysis (DCA) is a method to t observed production
rates of individualwells, group of wells, or reservoirs by a
mathematical function in order to predict the performance
of the future production by extrapolating the tted decline
function (Khanamiri, 2010).
Many of the existing decline curve analysis models are
heuristic and are based on the equations of Arps (1945)
who proposed that the curvature in the production-rate-
versus-time curve can be expressed mathematically by the
hyperbolic family of equations. Existing decline curve analysis
techniques, include three Arps (1945) models (exponen-
tial, hyperbolic, and harmonic). Fetkovich (1980) introduced
decline curve analysis by type curves. Type curve matching is
essentially a graphical technique for visual matching of pro-
duction data using preplotted curves on a loglog paper.
Fraim and Wattenbarger (1987) introduced a normalized
time function that linearizes the rate decline against normal-

Tel.: +61 2 6621 2669.

E-mail addresses: Bahadori.alireza@gmail.com, al.bahadori@gmail.com
Received28 May2011; Receivedinrevisedform7 August 2011; Accepted12 August 2011
izedtime for gas reservoirs producing at constant bottom-hole
pressures during boundary-dominated ow. The calcula-
tion of the normalized times involves an iterative process
(Khanamiri, 2010).
Palacio and Blasingame (1993) addressed the issue of vari-
able, non-constant bottom-hole pressures in gas wells. They
introduced methods, which use a modied time function
for analyzing the performance of gas wells. They have also
presented a new algorithm along with the modied time
function to compute gas in place, which are capable of mod-
eling the behavior of production data for variable rate and/or
variable pressure drop conditions. Like normalized time, the
calculation of pseudo-equivalent time is an iterative process
(Khanamiri, 2010).
Arps models are still the preferred method for forecasting
oil and gas production and proven reserves. These methods
have played a very important role in the exploration and
development of oil and gas elds worldwide (Arps, 1945, 1956;
Fetkovich et al., 1987, 1996; Marhaendrajana and Blasingame,
2001; Pratikno et al., 2003; Li and Horne, 2005, 2007). The main
characteristics of these decline curves can be used to select
0263-8762/$ see front matter 2011 The Institution of Chemical Engineers. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.cherd.2011.08.014
542 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541547
Nomenclature
A empirical parameter
B empirical parameter
b Arps decline-curve exponent.
C empirical parameter
D empirical parameter
D
i
nominal (initial) decline rate, 1/unit time.
G
p
(t) cumulative gas production at time t, MMscf
i index
j index
m matrix row index for mn matrix
n matrix column index for mn matrix
P

polynomial
q
i
initial gas ow rate at time t =0, MMscf/unit
time
q
t
gas ow rate at time t, MMscf/unit time
t time, unit time
u coefcient of polynomial
V Vandermonde matrix
matrix element
Unit conversion to SI
1MMScf 28,317Standard m
3
the ow-rate decline model that is appropriate for describing
the ratetime relationshipof the hydrocarbonsystem(Ahmed,
2006). It need to be emphasized that the Arps method is still
being used because of its simplicity and since it is an empiri-
cal method, it does not need any reservoir or well parameters,
however using Arps equations, the parameters of hyperbolic
equation cannot be calculated directly. In that case, using
non-linear type curves or using ready-generated coefcients
with uncertainty is necessary. In viewof the above mentioned
issues, an attempt has been made in the present work to
develop a simple-to-use method, which is easier than exist-
ing approaches, less complicated with fewer calculations, to
arrive at an appropriate estimation of nominal (initial) decline
rate, and the Arps decline-curve exponent. The results can be
used in follow-up calculations for analysis of past trends of
decline in production performance (rate versus time and rate
versus cumulative production plots), for gas wells as well as
reservoirs.
2. Conventional decline-curve analysis
methods
Nearly all conventional decline-curve analysis is based on
empirical relationships of production rate versus time, given
by Arps (1945) as follows:
q
t
=
q
i
(1 +bD
i
t)
1,b
(1)
where q
t
is the gas owrate at time t, MMscf/day; q
i
is the ini-
tial gas owrate, MMscf/day; t is the time, days; D
i
is the initial
decline rate, 1/day; and b is the Arps decline-curve exponent.
It can be extremely difcult to determine when a gas well
has dened its drainage area and thus to identify the start
of pseudo-steady-state ow condition. The area under the
decline curve of q
t
gas owrate at time t versus time between
the times t
1
and t
2
is a measure of the cumulative gas pro-
duction during this period. Dealing with gas reservoirs, the
cumulative gas production, G
p
, can be expressed mathemati-
cally (Ahmed, 2006):
C
p
=
_
t
2
t
1
q
t
dt (2)
Replacing the ow rate, q
t
, in the above equation with the
three individual expressions that describe types of decline
curves (Eqs. (3)(5)), and integrating gives the following (Arps,
1945):
Exponential b=0:
C
p(t)
=
(q
i
q
t
)
D
i
(3)
Hyperbolic 0<b<1:
C
p(t)
=
_
q
i
D
i
(1 b)
_
_
1
_
q
t
q
i
_
1b
_
(4)
Harmonic b=1:
C
p(t)
=
_
q
i
D
i
_
ln
_
q
i
q
t
_
(5)
Since estimating reserves and predicting production in
reservoirs has been a challenge for a long time many efforts
have been put into the research during the past few decades
whichtakes into account initial productionrate, initial decline
rate and the Arps decline-curve exponent, b. The decline
curves are characterized by three factors including initial pro-
duction rate or the rate at some particular time, curvature
of the decline and rate of decline. These factors are a com-
plex function of numerous parameters within the reservoir,
wellbore, and surface-handling facilities.
The following three conditions must be considered in
production-decline-curve analysis:
1. Certain conditions must prevail before we can analyse a
production decline curve with any degree of reliability.
These indicate that the well must have been produced at
capacity under a given set of conditions. The production
decline observed should truly reect reservoir productiv-
ity and not be the result of an external cause, such as a
change in production conditions, well damage, production
controls, or equipment failure (Ahmed, 2006).
2. Stable reservoir conditions must also prevail in order to
extrapolate decline curves with any degree of reliability.
This condition will normally be met as long as the produc-
ing mechanismis not altered. However, when an action is
taken to improve the recovery of gas, such as inll drilling,
uid injection, fracturing, or acidizing, decline-curve anal-
ysis can be used to estimate the performance of the well
or reservoir in the absence of the change and compare it to
the actual performance with the change (Ahmed, 2006).
3. Production-decline-curve analysis is used inthe evaluation
of newinvestments andthe audit of previous expenditures.
Associated with this is the sizing of equipment and facil-
ities such as pipelines, plants, and treating facilities. Also
associatedwiththe economic analysis is the determination
of reserves for a well, lease, or eld. This is an indepen-
dent method of reserve estimation, the result of which can
be compared to volumetric or material-balance estimates
(Ahmed, 2006).
chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541547 543
3. Development of simple equations for
estimation of nominal decline rate and the
Arps decline-curve exponent
The Vandermonde matrix using matlab (2008) is applied to
adjust the optimum coefcients of governing equations for
predictive tool.
Vandermonde matrix is a matrix with the terms of a geo-
metric progression in each row, i.e., an mn matrix (Horn and
Johnson, 1991).
V =
_

_
1
1

2
1
. . .
n1
1
1
2

2
2
. . .
n1
2
1
3

2
3
. . .
n1
3
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1
m

2
m
. . .
n1
m
_

_
(6)
or
V
i.j
=
j1
i
(7)
For all indices i and j, the determinant of a square Vander-
monde matrix (where m=n) can be expressed as (Horn and
Johnson, 1991):
det(V) =

1i-jn
(
j

i
) (8)
The Vandermonde matrix evaluates a polynomial at a set
of points; formally, it transforms coefcients of a polynomial
a
0
+a
1
x +a
2
x
2
+ +a
n1
x
n1
to the values the polynomial takes
at the points
i
. The non-vanishing of the Vandermonde deter-
minant for distinct points
i
shows that, for distinct points, the
map fromcoefcients to values at those points is a one-to-one
correspondence, and thus that the polynomial interpolation
problemis solvable with unique solution; this result is called
the unisolvence theorem (Fulton and Harris, 1991). They are
thus useful in polynomial interpolation, since solving the
system of linear equations Vu=y for u with V an mn Van-
dermonde matrix is equivalent to nding the coefcients u
j
of
the polynomial(s) (Fulton and Harris, 1991)
P

(x) =
n1

j=0
u
j
x
j
(9)
of degree n1 which has (have) the property:
P

(
i
) = y
i
for i = 1. . . . . m (10)
The Vandermonde matrix can easily be inverted in terms
of Lagrange basis polynomials: each column is the coefcients
of the Lagrange basis polynomial, with terms in increasing
order going down. The resulting solution to the interpolation
problemis called the Lagrange polynomial (Fulton and Harris,
1991).
In this work, rstly the initial gas ow rate over total gas
ow rate ratios (q
i
/q) is estimated in terms of cumulative gas
production [(LG
p
)/(tq
i
)] and Arps decline-curve exponent, b,
with an upper limit for [(LG
p
)/(tq
i
)] of 100. Secondly, nominal
(initial) decline rate, multiplied by time (D
i
t) is predicted as a
function of initial gas ow rate over total gas ow rate ratios
Table 1 Tuned coefcients used in Eqs. (12)(15).
Symbol Value
A
1
2.11859862210
1
B
1
1.65936506110
1
C
1
1.53899900810
1
D
1
1.33305073110
1
A
2
1.935448614
B
2
7.077915267691310
2
C
2
2.718233391
D
2
2.033559315
A
3
2.565909086
B
3
6.62230351310
1
C
3
6.512468358
D
3
4.877667113
A
4
1.419336198
B
4
4.25016250910
1
C
4
3.946255907
D
4
2.975690047
(q
i
/q) and Arps decline-curve exponent, b. To determine the
exponent b, enter the correlation with a value of cumula-
tive gas production that corresponds to the last data fromthe
decline data and the value of the ratio of initial productionrate
to last production rate data on the given decline data (q
i
/q).
The exponent b is calculated by the rst developed corre-
lation using of these two values. Then the initial decline rate
multipliedby time (D
i
t), canbe determinedfromthe 2ndcorre-
lationby entering the value of (q
i
/q) and the value of calculated
b by rst developed correlation. The data fromthe literature
(Gentry, 1972; Ahmed, 2006) are incorporated to develop these
predictive tools. The following methodology has been applied
to develop these simple tools.
Firstly, the cumulative gas productions [(LG
p
)/(tq
i
)] are cor-
related as a function of initial gas ow rate over total gas ow
rate ratios (q
i
/q) for different Arps decline-curve exponents,
b, then, the calculated coefcients for these polynomials are
correlatedas a functionof Arps decline-curve exponent b. The
derived polynomials are applied to calculate new coefcients
for Eq. (11) to predict, the cumulative gas productions. Table 1
shows the tuned coefcients for Eqs. (12)(15) for the initial
gas ow rate over total gas ow rate ratios (q
i
/q) according to
the available data (Gentry, 1972; Ahmed, 2006).
In brief, the following steps are used to tune the correla-
tions coefcients.
1. Correlate the cumulative gas productions as a function of
total gas ow rate ratios (q
i
/q) for a given Arps decline-
curve exponents, b.
2. Repeat step 1 for other Arps decline-curve exponents, b
values.
3. Correlate corresponding polynomial coefcients, whichare
obtained in previous steps as a function of Arps decline-
curve exponents, values (b), =f(b), =f(b), , =f(b), =f(b)
[see Eqs. (12)(15)].
So, equation represents the proposed governing equation
in which four coefcients are used to correlate the cumu-
lative gas productions as a function of initial gas ow rate
over total gas ow rate ratios (q
i
/q) for different Arps decline-
curve exponents, b, where the relevant coefcients have been
reported in Table 1.
_
q
i
q
_
= +

(LC
p
,tq
i
)
+
,
(LC
p
,tq
i
)
2
+

(LC
p
,tq
i
)
3
(11)
544 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541547
where
= A
1
+B
1
b +C
1
b
2
+D
1
b
3
(12)
= A
2
+B
2
b +C
2
b
2
+D
2
b
3
(13)
, = A
3
+B
3
b +C
3
b
2
+D
3
b
3
(14)
= A
4
+B
4
b +C
4
b
2
+D
4
b
3
(15)
These optimum tuned coefcients (AD) help to cover the
data reported in the literature for Arps decline-curve expo-
nents, (b) between 0 and 1 and total gas ow rate ratios (q
i
/q)
values up to 100 based on data fromGentry (1972) and Ahmed
(2006). The above mentioned methodology is applied to pre-
dict nominal (initial) decline rate multiply by time, (D
i
t) as a
function of initial gas ow rate over total gas ow rate ratios
(q
i
/q) and Arps decline-curve exponent, b (see Eqs. (16)(20)):
(D
i
t) = +

(q
i
,q)
+

(q
i
,q)
2
+
j
(q
i
,q)
3
(16)
where
= A
1
+B
1
b +C
1
b
2
+D
1
b
3
(17)
= A
2
+B
2
b +C
2
b
2
+D
2
b
3
(18)
= A
3
+B
3
b +C
3
b
2
+D
3
b
3
(19)
j = A
4
+B
4
b +C
4
b
2
+D
4
b
3
(20)
These optimumtuned coefcients (AD) reported inTable 2
help to cover the data from literature for Arps decline-curve
exponents, b between 0 and 1 and (q
i
/q) values up to 100 based
on data fromGentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006).
4. Results
Fig. 1 shows the performance of proposed predictive tool for
the estimation of, cumulative gas productions ((LG
p
)/(tq
i
)) as
a function of the initial gas ow rate over total gas ow rate
Table 2 Tuned coefcients used in Eqs. (17)(20).
Symbol For (q
i
/q) values
less than 20
For (q
i
/q) values
more than 20
A
1
5.22259816510
1
2.276792651
B
1
1.081028646 3.915302290
C
1
2.366497869 1.282754282710
1
D
1
1.731914040 1.20837495810
1
A
2
6.75939342610
1
3.48295685710
2
B
2
3.30608100310
1
7.92130715810
1
C
2
1.85132660910
1
1.519770493
D
2
1.451874936310
1
1.765447655
A
3
5.49539363610
2
1.6755971310
5
B
3
2.07027529210
2
1.452548713910
2
C
3
2.69679391810
2
3.44367753410
2
D
3
6.62383998810
2
2.35963531410
2
A
4
1.49591320910
3
1.62758117310
7
B
4
9.49876374610
4
7.37684733810
5
C
4
1.06343348910
3
2.00823306810
4
D
4
1.77976097710
3
1.42499195510
4
ratios (q
i
/q) and Arps decline-curve exponents (b), in compar-
ison with literature reported data (Gentry, 1972 and Ahmed,
2006). As can be seen, the results show good agreement with
the reported data and the proposed simple-to-use correlation
is accurate, reliable and acceptable. Figs. 2 and 3 showthe per-
formance of proposed correlation for prediction of cumulative
gas production as a function of Arps decline-curve exponent
and the ratio of initial gas ow rate over total gas ow rate
(q
i
/q) in two different view points. Figs. 4 and 5 show the per-
formance of proposed predictive tool for the estimation of
nominal (initial) decline rate multiply by time, (D
i
t) as a func-
tion of initial gas ow rate over total gas ow rate ratios (q
i
/q)
and Arps decline-curve exponent (b). In this study, our efforts
directed at formulating a simple-to-use method that can help
engineers and researchers immensely. It is expected that our
efforts in this investigation will pave the way for arriving at
an appropriate production decline-curve analysis which can
be used by petroleumengineers for follow up calculations for
analysis of past trends of declining production performance,
that is, rate versus time andrate versus cumulative production
plots, for wells and reservoirs. The predictive tool proposed
in the present work is simple and unique expression which
is non-existent in the literature. Typical example given below
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
qi/q
(
G
P
2
-
G
P
1
)
/
(
t
q
i
)
b=0
Data
b=0.2
Data
b=0.4
Data
b=0.6
Data
b=0.8
Data
b=1
Data
Fig. 1 Prediction of cumulative gas production as a function of Arps decline-curve exponent and the ratio of initial gas
ow rate over total gas ow rate (q
i
/q) in comparison with data [Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006)].
chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541547 545
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
q
i
/q
(
G
P
2
-
G
P
1
)
/
(
t
q
i
)
b=0
b=1
Fig. 2 Performance of proposed correlation for prediction of cumulative gas production as a function of Arps decline-curve
exponent and the ratio of initial gas ow rate over total gas ow rate (q
i
/q).
10
-2
10
-1
10
0
10
-1
Arps decline-curve exponent,"b"
(
G
P
2
-
G
P
1
)
/
(
t
q
i
)
(q
i
/q) at any time on decline=100
(q
i
/q) at any time on decline=4
Fig. 3 Performance of proposed correlation for prediction of cumulative gas production as a function of Arps decline-curve
exponent and the ratio of initial gas ow rate over total gas ow rate (q
i
/q) in another view point.
10
0
10
1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
qi/qt
D
i
.
t
b=0
Data
b=0.2
Data
b=0.4
Data
b=0.6
Data
b=0.8
Data
b=1
Data
Fig. 4 Prediction of initial decline rate, multiply by time as a function of Arps decline-curve exponent and the ratio of initial
gas ow rate over total gas ow rate (q
i
/q) less than 20 in comparison with reported data [Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006)].
546 chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541547
10
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
qi/qt
D
i
.
t


b=0.1
Data
b=0.2
Data
b=0.3
Data
b=0.4
Data
b=0.5
Data
b=0.6
Data
b=0.7
Data
b=0.8
Data
b=0.9
Data
b=1
Data
Fig. 5 Prediction of initial decline rate, multiply by time as a function of Arps decline-curve exponent and the ratio of initial
gas ow rate over total gas ow rate (q
i
/q) more than 20 in comparison with reported data [Gentry (1972) and Ahmed (2006)].
illustrates the simplicity associated with the use of proposed
predictive tool for rapid production decline-curve analysis in
gas reservoirs.
4.1. Example
The following production data were reported for a gas well:
Date Time, years q
t
, MMscf/day C
P(t)
. MMMscf
January 1, 1979 0 10 0
July 1, 1979 0.5 8.4 1.67
January 1, 1980 1 7.12 3.08
July 1, 1980 1.5 6.16 4.3
January 1, 1981 2 5.36 5.35
July 1, 1981 2.5 4.72 6.27
January 1, 1982 3 4.18 7.08
July 1, 1982 3.5 3.72 7.78
January 1, 1983 4 3.36 8.44
Using the data given recalculate the coefcients b and D
i
by
using proposed predictive tool. Estimate the future production
performance for the next 16 years (Ahmed, 2006).
4.2. Solution
Step 1. Calculate b fromthe rst predictive tool as a function
of ratios q
i
/q and G
p
/(t q
i
):
q
i
/q=10/3.36=2.98
G
p
/(tq
i
) =8440/[(4365) (10)] =0.58
We assume b=0.5, then
=1.070797610
1
=2.325422471
, =3.2532026
=1.8214307
Calculated G
p
/(tq
i
) =0.58 991.
Calculated G
p
/(tq
i
) is very close to given G
p
/(tq
i
) so
assumed b=0.5 is correct.
Step 2. Enter with the values of 2.98 and 0.5 to give
=6.876389272110
1
=8.131086642710
1
=4.30647447110
2
j =1.064363272310
3
D
i
t =1.381159
Solving for D
i
gives
D
i
=1.3811596/4=0.3453year.
Use Eq. (1) to predict the future production performance of
the gas well. Notice that in Eq. (1) the denominator contains
(D
i
t) and, therefore, the product must be dimensionless
q
t
=
q
i
(1 +bD
i
t)
1,b
q
t
=
10 10
6
(1 +0.5(0.3453)16)
1,0.5
= 0.70644 MMscf/day
Notice that in Eq. (1) the denominator contains (D
i
t) and,
therefore, the product must be dimensionless, In Eqs. (3) and
(4), the time basis in (q
i
) is expressed in days and, therefore,
(D
i
) must be expressed in (1/day) or day
1
C
p(t)
=
_
q
i
D
i
(1 b)
_
_
1
_
q
t
q
i
_
1b
_
C
p(t)
=
_
10 10
6
0.00094(1 0.5)
_
_
1
_
0.7304 10
6
10 10
6
_
10.5
_
= 15.526MMMscf
The calculated results have good agreement with data
reported by Ahmed (2006). For this example ow rate after
16 years reported by Ahmed (2006) is 0.6775MMscf/day and
cumulative gas production after 16 years reported by Ahmed
(2006) is 15.02793MMMscf.
As you knowthe b value is between 0 and 1, so the initial
estimate is easy.
5. Conclusions
In the present work, simple-to-use predictive tool, which
is easier than existing approaches, less complicated with
fewer, is formulated to arrive at an appropriate estimation
of nominal (initial) decline rate, and the Arps decline-curve
exponent. The results can be used in follow-up calculations
for analysis of past trends of declining production perfor-
mance. The proposed predictive tool is simple-to-use canbe of
chemical engineering research and design 9 0 ( 2 0 1 2 ) 541547 547
immense help to petroleum engineers especially those deal-
ing with petroleum engineering and production operations.
Additionally, the level of mathematical formulations with
clear numerical back-ground associated with the proposed
tool can be easily handled by a petroleum engineer without
any in-depth mathematical abilities. Example shown for the
benet of engineers clearly demonstrates the usefulness of
the proposed tool. Using this method is more appropriate
and more accurate to generate the coefcients of the equa-
tions using least-square regression analysis instead of using
ready-generated coefcients with uncertainty. The engineers
can easily develop their own computer program to compute
the coefcients and hence the solution (i.e. gas reserves and
production performance). In particular, petroleum engineers
would nd the proposed approach to be user friendly involv-
ing transparent calculations with no complex expressions for
their applications.
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