BEYOND POST-CASMIN

FROM THE THIRD TO THE FIFTH GENERATION

IN SOCIAL MOBILITY RESEARCH

Wout Ultee
Radboud University Nijmegen

Presentation at the Mannheimer Zentrum fr Europische
Sozialforschung on the occasion of Walter Mllers superannuation
January 27, 2007
posted at http://www.socsci.ru.nl/maw/sociologie/ultee/
GIVEN THE DIVISION OF LABOUR IN ACADEMIA
SOCIOLOGY SHOULD BE ABOUT HUMAN SOCIETIES IN
THE PLURAL

HOWEVER POST-1945 DOMINANCE OF SOCIOLOGY BY
THE U.S.A. LED TO THE STUDY OF
CONTEMPORARY SOCIETY IN THE SINGULAR

AND DESPITE THE PRESENT SPATE OF COMPARISONS
OF EUROPEAN SOCIETIES
WHY IS NOT THE WHOLE WORLD LIKE THE USA?
QUESTIONS
STILL ARE BEING ADDRESSED
THE FOREMOST ACCOMPLISHMENT OF
CASMIN AND ITS OFFSHOOTS
IS THAT IT BROKE U.S.A. DOMINANCE IN
SOCIOLOGY
CASMIN DID SO BY TURNING THE LIABILITY OF
EUROPEAN POLITICAL DIVERSITY
INTO A VALUABLE RESOURCE FOR
SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH
AND POST-CASMIN DID SO BY COMPARING
TRENDS IN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES DURING
THE WHOLE OF THE 20TH CENTURY
(POST-)CASMIN IN THIS WAY PERFORMED THE
PRIME JOB OF SOCIOLOGY
THE POST-CASMIN SELF-UNDERSTANDING
IS THAT SOUND EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES NOW
HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED
AND THAT THE JOB OF EXPLAINING THESE
REGULARITIES IS UNDERWAY
POST-CASMIN SEEKS TO REPLACE EXPLANATIONS
INVOLVING BLIND MACRO FACTORS
WITH DEEPER EXPLANATIONS INVOKING RATIONAL
INDIVIDUAL ACTORS

I BEG TO DIFFER ON TWO COUNTS
FIRST
IF AN EXPLANATION OF A SUPPOSEDLY SOUND
REGULARITY IS AT HAND
THEN THE CONDITIONS ARE KNOWN UNDER
WHICH THIS REGULARITY IS STRONGER OR
WEAKER
AS WELL AS THOSE UNDER WHICH IT IS ABSENT
AND A TEST OF THE EXPLANATION REQUIRES A
HUNT FOR THESE EXCEPTIONAL CONDITIONS
POPPER IN THE POVERTY OF HISTORICISM FROM 1944 AND THE AIM OF
SCIENCE FROM 1957
THE SUPERFLUITY OF PAINSTAKING DESCRIPTIVE
RESEARCH
THE NECESSITY OF FOLLOW-UP RESEARCH
SECOND

IF A REGULARITY PERTAINS TO SOCIETIES
ITS EXPLANATION CANNOT BE PURELY INDIVIDUAL

THIS EXPLANATION USES A THEORY OF HUMAN ACTION
AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT SOCIETIES

THESE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS TAKE COMMUNITIES,
MARKETS, OR STATES AS CONTEXTS FOR HUMAN
ACTION
AND MORE PRECISELY AS WAYS OF COORDINATING
THE ACTIONS OF THE INDIVIDUALS MAKING UP A
SOCIETYS POPULATION

AND THESE ASSUMPTIONS HOLD THAT MARKETS HAVE
BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES
HEILBRONER, THE WORLDY PHILOSOPHERS , 1953
THE SELF-UNDERSTANDING OF CASMIN IS THAT IT
MADE PROGRESS WITH RESPECT TO
DATA ANALYSIS AND
DATA PREPARATION

DATA ANALYSIS BY WAY OF ODDS RATIOS AND THEIR
DERIVATIVES
DATA PREPARATION BY WAY OF RECODING
OCCUPATIONAL TITLES OF PERSONS - TOGETHER WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION - FOR ALL THE
COUNTRIES INVOLVED INTO ONE AND THE SAME CLASS
SCHEME
THIS SURELY IS PROGRESS
ALTHOUGH VALIDATION OF THE CLASS SCHEME BY WAY
OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IS STILL OUT
HOWEVER, OTHER FORMS OF PROGRESS ARE MORE IMPORTANT
Ganzeboom, Treiman and Ultee 1991 ascertained progress by
considering the questions in three generations of mobility studies
I now call the third generation the (POST-)CASMIN generation, coming
after the Lipset generation and the Duncan generation
PROGRESS WITH RESPECT TO THE QUESTIONS
BEING ADDRESSED RIGHT NOW AND EARLIER ON
PROGRESS WITH RESPECT TO THE THEORIES
ADDUCED WHEN ASWERING EXPLANATORY
QUESTIONS
AND PROGRESS WITH RESPECT TO THEORY-
GUIDED DATA COLLECTION
WHICH IS MORE STRATEGIC THAN DATA PREPARATION AND DATA
ANALYSIS
The CASMIN generation proposed as the new exemplary
question
How unequal is in a society at a certain point in time
the outcome of the competition between persons from
higher and lower origins for higher and lower
destinations?

This question amounts to an interesting move towards auxiliary
assumptions about societies
From sociology as aggregate psychology in the
Lipset generation
And cultural sociology in the Duncan generation
To rigged-market sociology in the CASMIN generation
After the CASMIN generation came the Mayer-Blossfeld generation
QUESTIONS LIKE
HOW MUCH SOCIAL FLUIDITY IS THERE IN THE
U.K. IN 1972?
ARE FLAWED

FLUIDITY REFERS TO THE MOVEMENT OF
PERSONS BETWEEN TWO POINTS IN TIME
WHICH UPSTAGES THE REFERENCE TO 1972

SOME PERSONS HAVE LIVED LONGER THAN OTHER PERSONS

therefore A MOBILITY TABLE PERTAINS FOR SOME PERSONS TO A
LONGER PERIOD THAN FOR OTHER PERSONS
The exemplary question of the Mayer-Blossfeld generation

ARE FOR THE MEMBERS ASOME POINT IN TIME
OF A SOCIETYS POPULATION
THE CHANCES FOR THE EVENT OF MOVING
UPWARD OR DOWNWARD IN A CERTAIN ALWAYS
EQUALLY LONG PERIOD
NOT ONLY DEPENDENT UPON INDIVIDUAL
CHARACTERISTICS LIKE AGE AND EDUCATION
BUT ALSO UPON COHORT AND PERIOD
CHARACTERISTICS?
ALTHOUGH THE MAYER-BLOSSFELD GENERATION COLLECTED
OCCUPATIONAL HISTORIES, MAINLY SINGLE EVENTS WERE
MODELLED
WHERE ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT SERIES OF EVENTS OR
CAREER TRAJECTORIES?
POSSIBLE FIFTH GENERATION QUESTION
IS AN OCCUPATIONAL CAREER A SELF-
REINFORCING UPWARD PROCESS?
WILL A PERSON WHO ONCE MOVED DOWN BE
PERMANENTLY SCARRED?
Does an effect of persons first occupation in a second
generation path model indicate self-reinforcement?
How about duration dependency in event history models
for person-period data?
Which questions yields a close reading of Sennetts stories
about fragmented life histories?
THE BEST MACROHYPOTHESES AROUND
NISBET 1966
THE SHIFT FROM AGRICULTURE TO
INDUSTRY AND FROM AUTOCRACY TO
DEMOCRACY MAKES A SOCIETYS
STRATA MORE OPEN
LENSKI 1966
TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS MAKES
FOR MORE RIGID STRATIFICATION
BUT WITH THE ADVENT OF
INDUSTRIALISM RIGIDITIES ARE OFFSET
BY SOCIAL-DEMOCRATIC POLICIES
THE POST-CASMIN GENERATION NOW
ADVOCATES MOVING FROM BLIND MACRO
FACTORS TO RATIONAL INDIVIDUAL ACTORS
IS THAT THE IMPORTANT NEW THING?
WITH RESPECT TO CLASS MOBILITY THE MAYER
BLOSSFELD GENERATION ADVOCATED MOVING
FROM QUESTIONS ABOUT VARYING TIME SPANS
TO QUESTIONS ABOUT EQUALLY LONG PERIODS
THE IMPORTANT THING IS TO BREAK DOWN
VARYING TIME SPANS INTO EQUALLY LONG
PERIODS!
WITH RESPECT TO EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT THE FOURTH
GENERATION - IN THE PERSON OF MARE - ADVOCATED DROPPING
THE IDEA OF ONE-SHOT- DECISIONS AND ADOPTING THE IDEA OF
A SEQUENCE OF DECISIONS
But as far as contexts goes
The CASMIN generation and the Mayer-Blossfeld
generation bypass communities

Contexts are too macro, not enough micro, and there is no meso

Macro contexts: cohort size, war, unemployment level as a time-varying
covatiate
More macro contexts: percent of the population
disapproving of full-time working women with babies
Micro contexts: mostly father and sometimes mother
More micro contexts: spouse, siblings and children
Meso contexts: school, neighbourhood, church and
sportclub
* Individual sociology or
aggregate psychology

Individuals
One goal
One resource
One shot decisions
* ActorS sociology

egos
several goals
several resources
sequential decision
processes
collective actors
present and origin
household
meso communities
* Macro factor
sociology
- average income
- general rise in
education

- industrialization
- democratization
- technology
- ideology
THEORIES SCHEMATIZED FOR
DATA COLLECTION PURPOSES
After developing micro-explanations,
How about deriving conditions under which
Lenski and Nisbet macro hypotheses hold and do not hold?
Fifth generation theory driven data
collection
Moments
Household history
Religious history
Educational history
Sport club history
Job history

Fifth generation theory driven data
collection
Contexts
Municipalities
Neighbourhoods
Schools
Employers
Economic sectors
Sport clubs
Fifth generation theory driven data
collection
Actors
Primary respondent
Partner
Parent
Child
Sibling
Dutch data collection to be turned
into European Union data collection?
Multi-Moment data
Multi-Actor data
Multi-Context data
3MAC data
This presentation has been posted at
http://www.socsci.ru.nl/maw/sociologie/ultee/