DISTRIBUCION NORMAL

AO MEDIA

f(x)

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

252.84
629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91
360.22
208.88

0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.002
0.000
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001

1991

340.48

0.002

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29
346.06

0.001
0.002
0.000
0.002
0.002
0.002

1998

400.22

0.002

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001

Media
Mediana
Desviacin estndar
Varianza de la muestra
Curtosis
Coeficiente de asimetra
Rango
Mnimo
Mximo
Suma
N

410.36
359.16
172.37
29710.47
-1.13
0.54
577.16
146.74
723.90
10669.42
26

PROBABILIDADES
PARA UN CAUDAL :

PROBABILIDAD

450.00
0.23
37.72 %

RETORNO
PERIODO DE RETORNO :
CAUDAL MAXIMO
:

DISTRIBUCION LOG-NORMAL
AO

MAX

lnx

F(X)

MEDIA X

1980

252.84

5.533

0.00239

MEDIA LNX

1981

629.58

6.445

0.00073

DESV. EST. X

1982

664.29

6.499

0.00059

DESV. EST. LNX

1983

190.94

5.252

0.00145

COEF. VAR. X

1984

715.28

6.573

0.00044

C. ASIMETRIA

1985

320.82

5.771

0.00265

RANGO

1986

717.93

6.576

0.00043

MINIMO

1987

466.92

6.146

0.00172

MAXIMO

1988
1989
1990

418.91
360.22
208.88

6.038
5.887
5.342

0.00210
0.00250
0.00178

SUMA
N

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29

5.830
4.989
5.824
6.585
5.720
5.772

0.00260
0.00063
0.00260
0.00041
0.00265
0.00265

1997

346.06

5.847

0.00257

1998

400.22

5.992

0.00224

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

6.019
6.267
6.338
5.881
6.186
5.462
5.381

0.00216
0.00128
0.00104
0.00252
0.00158
0.00218
0.00192

PERIODO DE RETORNO :
K

QTr

LIMITE DE CONFIANZA

Se

t(1-) =
Intervalo de Confianza

PROBABILIDAD
LNX
t
F(t)

:
:
:
:

La probabilidad de que el caudal de

no sea excedido es de

DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
AO

MAX

F(X)

MEDIA

410.36

1980

252.84

0.00

MEDIANA

359.16

1981

629.58

1.00

DESV. EST.

172.37

1982

664.29

1.00

CURTOSIS

-0.71

1983

190.94

0.00

COEF. VAR.

0.42

1984

715.28

1.00

C. ASIMETRIA

0.54

1985

320.82

0.00

RANGO

577.16

1986

717.93

1.00

MINIMO

146.74

1987

466.92

0.96

MAXIMO

723.90

1988

418.91

0.54

SUMA

10669.42

1989

360.22

0.00

26

1990

208.88

0.00

1991
1992
1993

340.48
146.74
338.25

0.00
0.00
0.00

PERIODO DE RETORNO :
KT

3.14

1994
1995
1996

723.90
304.89
321.29

1.00
0.00
0.00

QTr

1997

346.06

0.00

LIMITE DE CONFIANZA

1998

400.22

0.17

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

0.39
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.98
0.00
0.00

951.0296425

3.92

Se

132.6465409

t(1-) =

1.645

INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA

Gumbel

1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

DISTRIBUCION PEARSON
AO

MEDIA
MEDIANA
DESV. EST.
CURTOSIS
COEF. VAR.
C. Asimetria
RANGO
MINIMO
MAXIMO
SUMA
N

MAX

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990

252.84
629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91
360.22
208.88

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29

1997

346.06

410.36
359.16
172.37
-0.71
0.42
0.540
577.16
146.74
723.90
10669.42
26

PERIODO DE RETORNO :
K

QTr

2.714
878.21 m3/s

1998

400.22

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

DISTRIBUCION LOG-PEARSON
Ao

Max

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

252.84
629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91
360.22

2.40
2.80
2.82
2.28
2.85
2.51
2.86
2.67
2.62
2.56

1990

208.88

2.32

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29

2.53
2.17
2.53
2.86
2.48
2.51

1997

346.06

2.54

1998

400.22

2.60

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

2.61
2.72
2.75
2.55
2.69
2.37
2.34

MEDIA
DESV. EST.
C. ASIM.
MEDIA LOG
DE. EST. LOG
C. ASIM. LOG
RANGO
MINIMO
MAXIMO
SUMA
N

LogX

410.36
172.37
0.54
2.57
0.19
-0.216
577.16
146.74
723.90
10669.42
26

PERIODO DE RETORNO :
K

2.166

QTr

958.42

DISTRIBUCION GAMMA 3 PARA

TAMBIEN LLAMADO LOG PEARSON III

n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

Ao
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

Media
Mediana
Desviacin estndar
DESV. EST. LNX
Varianza muestra
COEF. VAR. X
Curtosis
Coeficiente asimetra
Coef. asimetra log
Rango
Escala
Forma
N

P(X)

252.84

0.04

629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91
360.22
208.88
340.48
146.74

0.07
0.11
0.15
0.19
0.22
0.26
0.30
0.33
0.37
0.41
0.44
0.48

338.25

0.52

723.90

0.56

304.89

0.59

321.29

0.63

346.06

0.67

400.22
411.26
527.11
565.84

0.70
0.74
0.78
0.81

358.10

0.85

485.92
235.48
217.27

0.89
0.93
0.96

Dist. Normal

Dist. Log-normal

Dist. Gumbel

410.36
359.16
172.37

410.36

410.36
359.16
172.37

Dist. Pearson
410.36
359.16
172.37

0.42

0.42
-0.71

0.42
-0.71

0.54

0.54

0.54

0.54

577.16

577.16

577.16

577.16

26

26

26

26

172.37
0.44

29710.47
-1.13

Med Log

5.93

N NORMAL

ROBABILIDADES

Funcin de densidad-distribucion

<
<

Q
Z

<
<

730.00
1.85

0.003
0.002

37.72 %

0.002

RETORNO
0.001

100
811.35

aos
M3/seg

0.001
0.000
0.00

ON LOG-NORMAL
410.36
5.93
172.37
0.44
0.42
0.54
577.16
146.74
723.90
10669.42
26

200.00

400.00

600.00

PERIODO DE RETORNO :

100 aos

2.33
1046.905 m3/s

LIMITE DE CONFIANZA

5%

1.925084

0.166118
1.644854
Intervalo de Confianza

TABLA
[

796.60 ;

1375.9 ] PARA Qtr

0.00300
0.00250

PROBABILIDAD

300 M3/S
0.00200

LNX
t
F(t)

:
:

5.703782475
-0.514130739
0.3

La probabilidad de que el caudal de

no sea excedido es de
30 %.

0.00100
0.00050
0.00000

0.00

N GUMBEL

ORNO :

300 m3/s

0.00150

100 aos

100.00

200.00

ANZA

m3/s

5%

m3/s
TABLA

NFIANZA

732.8 ;

1169.2 ] PARA Qtr

Gumbel

600.00

700.00

PEARSON
INTERPOLACION
0.600 2.755
0.540 2.714
0.800 2.891

100 aos

800.00

OG-PEARSON
Interpolacion
-0.200 2.178
-0.216 2.166
-0.400 2.029

ORNO :

100 aos

m3/s

CION GAMMA 3 PARAMETROS

TAMBIEN LLAMADO LOG PEARSON III

Funsion densidad
F(z)ordinario lnx

0.18

5.53

27

0.88
0.90
0.06
0.93
0.36
0.93
0.69
0.60
0.46
0.09
0.41
0.02

6.45
6.50
5.25
6.57
5.77
6.58
6.15
6.04
5.89
5.34
5.83
4.99

14
9
7
5
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2

0.40

5.82

0.93

6.58

0.32

5.72

0.36

5.77

0.43

5.85

0.56
0.58
0.78
0.83

5.99
6.02
6.27
6.34

1
1
1
1

0.46

5.88

0.72
0.14
0.10

6.19
5.46
5.38

1
1
1

Dist. Log-Pearson
410.36
172.37
0.19

0.54
-0.22
577.16

26

RESULTADOS ESTADSTICOS:
Media
Mediana
Desviacin estndar
Suma lnx
Escala
Promedio
Forma
Suma
Cuenta

410.36
359.16
172.37
154.15
5.93
4.00
0.44
10669.42
26.00

1.00
0.80

0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

0.00

4.- CALCULO DE Q PARA T (aos):

F(x)

0.986666667

(TABLA) Z

2.2169

Q (CAUDAL) 988.7771551

Dist. Ganma 3 Parametros

410.36
359.16
172.37

577.16
5.93
0.44
26

100.00 200.00

75

.2018

distribucion-normal

Funcion de densidad
distribucion normal

600.00

800.00

Log Normal

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

Funsion densidad-Distribucin
Gamma

200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00

ESTACIN: LA MEJORADA
CUENCA:
MANTARO
RIO:
MANTARO
AREA CAPTACION:
17472
ELEVACION:
2819 msnm
AO
ENERO
FEBRERO
1980
115.84
161.10
1981
191.42
0.00
1982
373.87
664.29
1983
185.87
113.32
1984
174.03
715.28
1985
209.70
277.42
1986
334.98
610.13
1987
466.92
0.00
1988
350.01
418.91
1989
360.22
300.02
1990
208.88
155.60
1991
165.61
156.17
1992
90.30
66.53
1993
112.72
299.65
1994
342.73
723.90
1995
134.07
155.01
1996
181.75
321.29
1997
174.21
346.06
1998
253.48
335.85
1999
126.22
411.26
2000
266.49
489.75
2001
415.93
403.79
2002
103.51
279.46
2003
213.85
360.34
2004
113.67
235.48
2005
184.14
186.14
Promedio
225.02
314.88
DEV.EST
106.38
202.52
Mximo
466.92
723.90
Mnimo
90.30
0.00

Km2
MARZO
252.84
629.58
337.29
190.94
560.87
320.82
717.93
220.97
327.18
166.21
106.11
340.48
146.74
291.49
518.09
304.89
265.12
237.03
400.22
381.56
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
183.17
217.27
348.22
160.58
717.93
106.11

ABRIL
140.67
219.90
229.63
161.53
345.17
317.45
491.67
444.52
325.91
312.23
85.31
160.23
64.05
202.94
429.05
191.62
238.55
89.54
226.22
298.10
288.03
260.37
225.15
310.95
122.28
142.48
243.21
111.24
491.67
64.05

MAYO
81.77
107.39
121.77
96.35
140.23
159.01
143.99
118.06
145.92
151.69
75.81
122.95
47.78
130.20
195.48
84.83
90.27
69.59
64.65
141.71
142.81
121.45
116.12
141.49
82.97
83.89
114.55
34.90
195.48
47.78

JUNIO
69.17
98.60
103.97
85.03
118.03
136.38
185.84
90.33
118.43
145.67
77.09
85.76
50.19
79.53
139.27
82.74
76.82
69.91
83.74
88.02
102.11
101.05
97.31
105.52
86.07
89.71
98.70
28.53
185.84
50.19

FUENTE:

JULIO
72.77
98.13
105.39
91.16
93.23
122.15
143.12
155.64
107.60
134.21
71.45
92.42
48.88
77.50
117.77
83.48
79.02
69.37
83.79
88.92
98.21
96.44
96.21
98.34
81.31
92.54
96.12
23.63
155.64
48.88

AGOSTO
66.45
92.90
94.06
89.48
91.45
112.41
122.33
85.72
95.46
107.79
75.40
93.85
47.10
75.91
107.59
84.99
80.26
73.89
88.88
90.49
101.06
94.93
94.82
100.55
91.91
88.05
90.30
15.15
122.33
47.10

SEPTIEMBRE
65.77
99.23
84.00
84.30
97.10
110.03
128.30
90.91
112.32
102.88
72.31
99.46
43.97
68.57
107.68
71.50
79.79
73.92
83.59
94.32
98.36
97.09
94.80
107.74
80.19
81.33
89.59
17.90
128.30
43.97

OCTUBRE
91.74
93.23
101.42
78.90
99.74
102.11
115.79
87.77
75.85
101.11
91.15
85.71
45.06
83.94
91.62
68.55
74.82
79.06
82.12
99.36
15.30
102.20
97.22
98.37
83.67
89.87
85.99
20.01
115.79
15.30

electroperu S.A

NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE
94.20
133.21
145.33
293.08
174.10
186.89
57.67
86.09
122.40
266.45
96.29
150.94
111.24
152.60
82.96
152.63
88.43
158.04
119.04
112.80
175.35
185.42
81.42
76.03
46.10
49.31
179.72
338.25
88.07
95.51
80.21
91.78
72.10
101.86
83.33
115.35
86.62
111.96
92.30
132.27
97.41
132.74
105.15
164.74
133.54
232.01
94.57
154.22
110.40
189.18
80.99
93.35
103.81
152.18
34.17
68.42
179.72
338.25
46.10
49.31

PROMEDIO
112.13
172.40
214.72
110.05
235.33
176.23
271.49
166.37
193.67
176.16
114.99
130.01
62.17
161.70
246.40
119.47
138.47
123.44
158.43
170.38
196.62
210.75
160.69
189.32
121.69
119.15
163.55
48.51
271.49
62.17

max
252.84
629.58
664.29
190.94
715.28
320.82
717.93
466.92
418.91
360.22
208.88
340.48
146.74
338.25
723.90
304.89
321.29
346.06
400.22
411.26
527.11
565.84
358.10
485.92
235.48
217.27

min
65.77
0.00
84.00
57.67
91.45
96.29
111.24
0.00
75.85
101.11
71.45
76.03
43.97
68.57
88.07
68.55
72.10
69.37
64.65
88.02
15.30
94.93
94.80
94.57
80.19
80.99