Suavizacin Simple

=0.4

Ao

Yt(1)
Cotizacion
174132
161943
146195
141146
147081
1998
168127
144123
169350
163300
186654
182168
181453
171695
142800
156978
138780
154502
155887
1999
161107
162323
175434
172045
190468

2
Yt+(1-)*t
0.4*174132+(1-0.4)*174132
0.4*161943+(1-0.4)*174132
0.4*146195+(1-0.4)*169256.4
0.4*141146+(1-0.4)*160031.84
0.4*147081+(1-0.4)*152477.5
0.4*168127+(1-0.4)*150318.9
0.4*144123+(1-0.4)*157442.14
0.4*169350+(1-0.4)*152114.48
0.4*163300+(1-0.4)*159008.69
0.4*186654+(1-0.4)*160725.21
0.4*182168+(1-0.4)*171096.73
0.4*181453+(1-0.4)*175525.24
0.4*171695+(1-0.4)*177896.34
0.4*142800+(1-0.4)*175415.81
0.4*156978+(1-0.4)*162369.48
0.4*138780+(1-0.4)*160212.89
0.4*154502+(1-0.4)*151639.73
0.4*155887+(1-0.4)*152784.64
0.4*161107+(1-0.4)*154025.58
0.4*162323+(1-0.4)*156858.15
0.4*175434+(1-0.4)*159044.09
0.4*172045+(1-0.4)*165600.05

3 DAM(I1-3I)
ECM
PEMA
Yt-t
(Yt-t)
Yt-t/Yt
174132
0
0
0
174132
12189
148571721.0000
0.0753
169256.4
23061.4
531828169.9600
0.1577
160031.84
18885.84
356674952.5056
0.1338
152477.504
5396.504
29122255.4220
0.0367
150318.902
17808.0976
317128340.1311
0.1059
157442.141
13319.1414
177399528.6987
0.0924
152114.485
17235.5151
297062982.0033
0.1018
159008.691
4291.30908
18415333.6338
0.0263
160725.215
25928.7854
672301914.8582
0.1389
171096.729
11071.2713
122573047.5201
0.0608
175525.237
5927.76276
35138371.3581
0.0327
177896.342
6201.34234
38456646.8554
0.0361
175415.805
32615.8054
1063790762.2700
0.2284
162369.483
5391.48324
29068091.5648
0.0343
160212.89
21432.8899
459368771.4413
0.1544
151639.734
2862.26603
8192566.8399
0.0185
152784.64
3102.35962
9624635.2081
0.0199
154025.584
7081.41577
50146449.3309
0.0440
156858.151
5464.84946
29864579.6531
0.0337
159044.09
16389.9097
268629139.2462
0.0934
165600.054
6444.94581
41537326.4510
0.0375
168178.033
22289.9675
496842650.4380
0.1170

t+1

2000

164692
150419
138585
164806
141578
136450
136144
144638
118136
133284
158266
167523
167508

0.4*190468+(1-0.4)*168178.03
0.4*164692+(1-0.4)*177094.02
0.4*150419+(1-0.4)*172133.21
0.4*138585+(1-0.4)*163447.53
0.4*164806+(1-0.4)*153502.52
0.4*141578+(1-0.4)*158023.91
0.4*136450+(1-0.4)*151445.55
0.4*136144+(1-0.4)*145447.33
0.4*144638+(1-0.4)*141726
0.4*118136+(1-0.4)*142890.8
0.4*133284+(1-0.4)*132988.88
0.4*158266+(1-0.4)*133106.93
0.4*167523+(1-0.4)*143170.56

177094.02
172133.212
163447.527
153502.516
158023.91
151445.546
145447.328
141725.997
142890.798
132988.879
133106.927
143170.556
152911.534

12402.0195
21714.2117
24862.527
11303.4838
16445.9097
14995.5458
9303.3275
2912.0035
24754.7979
295.12126
25159.0728
24352.4437
14596.4662
13541.3553

0.4*167508+(1-0.4)*152911.53=

pronostico

158750.118

153810087.9164
471506990.0025
618145249.9920
127768745.6987
270467946.7961
224866394.9516
86551902.6139
8479764.3762
612800019.1098
87096.5578
632978941.9271
593041511.8933
213056825.2958
255980547.5978

0.0753
0.1444
0.1794
0.0686
0.1162
0.1099
0.0683
0.0201
0.2095
0.0022
0.1590
0.1454
0.0871
8.79%