Modelo 1

x
Modelo 2
Modelo 3
Modelo 4
Energa
Modelo 1
V. dep.
Horas
tem
Toneladas
Var Ind
R^2 del
modelo de
Forma funcional del modelo
regresin
[%]
ton.:lineal
Energia
83.6%
hr.:lineal
Energia
80.7%
hr.:lineal
LN(Energia)
86.2%
ton, hr.:lineal
Energia
91.1%
hr,ton.:lineal
47.52%
Modelo 5
Modelo 6
ton, hr.:lineal
LN(Energia)
90.2%
Modelo 7
ton, hr.:lineal
LN(Energia)
85.1%
Modelo 8
ton.:lineal
Exp(Energia)
85.1%
NOMENCLATURA
: Resultado No cumple Valor recomendado estadsticamente
: Resultado cercano a lmite recomendado estadsticamente
: Resultado cumple Valor recomendado estadisticamente
VALORES ESTADISTICOS RECOMENDADOS

R^2 > 75%
CV < 5%
SESGO < 0,005%
T-Estadistico > 1.96 para un nivel de confianza de 95% en una muestra de 36 datos
CV
Coeficiente
Sesgo
de Variacin (ASHRAE) [%]
[%]
7.07%
0.00000%
7.67%
0.00000%
12.65%
0.00000%
6.20%
0.00000%
6.85%
0.00000%
6.26%
0.00000%
7.11%
0.00000%
6.98%
0.00000%
Comentarios
Carguio
ene-06
feb-06
mar-06
abr-06
may-06
jun-06
jul-06
ago-06
sep-06
oct-06
nov-06
dic-06
ene-07
feb-07
mar-07
abr-07
may-07
jun-07
jul-07
ago-07
sep-07
oct-07
nov-07
dic-07
ene-08
feb-08
mar-08
abr-08
may-08
jun-08
jul-08
ago-08
sep-08
oct-08
nov-08
dic-08
ene-09
feb-09
mar-09
abr-09
may-09
jun-09
jul-09
h
2,055.7
1,696.7
2,085.0
1,910.1
2,017.5
2,150.9
2,278.5
2,289.2
2,185.2
2,238.5
2,037.6
2,081.9
2,764.4
2,533.5
2,834.9
2,726.9
2,849.5
2,835.3
2,745.1
2,651.9
2,502.3
2,831.6
2,779.7
2,856.8
2,919.6
2,634.8
2,699.3
2,747.3
2,771.3
2,906.1
2,476.6
2,657.1
2,532.0
2,521.9
2,719.9
2,790.9
2,453.9
2,366.9
2,618.5
2,274.0
2,353.8
2,397.5
2,581.0
t
3,007,598
2,582,176
3,034,594
2,630,174
2,768,578
3,031,708
3,322,842
3,418,628
3,162,911
3,247,620
3,029,972
3,096,537
4,391,916
4,124,403
4,658,480
4,505,780
4,674,625
4,741,922
4,814,440
4,663,578
4,216,553
4,382,169
4,309,334
4,306,354
4,478,426
4,010,450
4,206,928
4,127,638
4,144,983
4,512,189
3,917,745
4,326,429
4,111,490
4,520,254
4,503,757
4,582,747
3,953,605
3,785,908
4,367,532
3,838,506
4,010,824
4,103,058
4,513,298
m3
387,871
349,192
403,141
360,820
367,931
408,234
424,836
422,804
410,837
454,621
405,474
418,258
495,334
491,421
566,070
559,549
561,521
558,504
579,083
593,035
556,677
592,105
587,679
597,370
634,804
563,807
458,838
564,512
528,193
589,519
463,220
581,350
623,817
576,017
577,978
617,372
428,191
550,909
598,164
636,073
683,152
615,435
689,229
m3 ln
1.473839647
1.417921405
1.496517886
1.434505227
1.444742348
1.504159093
1.529339587
1.526235125
1.50807952
1.575576127
1.500013338
1.519312606
1.641046257
1.63463739
1.761331399
1.749883125
1.753337299
1.748055452
1.784401384
1.809471837
1.744864671
1.807789811
1.799806214
1.817332924
1.886652321
1.757350013
1.58223436
1.758589382
1.69586511
1.803120906
1.589182924
1.788451211
1.866037129
1.778938788
1.78243071
1.854049193
1.534479138
1.734829261
1.818776459
1.889048003
1.98010921
1.850461375
1.992178971
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
ago-09
sep-09
oct-09
nov-09
dic-09
ene-10
feb-10
mar-10
abr-10
may-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
sep-10
oct-10
nov-10
dic-10
ene-11
feb-11
mar-11
abr-11
may-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
sep-11
oct-11
nov-11
dic-11
ene-12
feb-12
mar-12
abr-12
may-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
sep-12
oct-12
nov-12
dic-12
ene-13
feb-13
mar-13
abr-13
may-13
jun-13
2,390.9
2,332.2
2,456.2
2,510.0
2,366.5
2,228.4
1,933.6
2,193.7
2,003.9
2,164.5
2,484.6
2,595.0
2,408.0
2,138.8
2,349.0
2,146.1
2,363.0
2,530.3
2,202.4
2,331.2
2,197.4
2,178.5
2,243.9
2,190.9
2,266.0
2,189.1
2,099.9
2,068.5
2,027.8
2,245.3
1,576.4
1,445.7
1,894.8
2,009.0
2,135.9
2,322.8
2,442.7
2,246.0
0.0
2,171.2
2,232.0
2,481.3
2,093.5
2,202.9
2,429.1
2,871.5
3,370.5
4,449,263
4,251,331
4,516,475
4,612,776
4,396,674
4,216,239
3,700,439
4,318,778
4,053,636
4,137,471
4,529,720
4,595,965
4,291,671
3,944,455
4,298,218
3,968,618
4,431,588
4,723,180
4,124,299
4,553,623
4,221,211
4,232,664
4,318,822
4,043,880
4,061,135
3,931,587
3,727,685
3,756,891
3,466,276
3,966,785
2,680,018
2,340,626
3,577,266
3,619,250
3,649,324
3,734,167
4,143,057
3,503,824
0
2,817,406
2,930,900
3,974,956
3,317,853
3,646,296
3,828,428
4,465,663
5,148,756
656,134
640,912
599,758
626,557
574,389
511,283
447,276
514,830
464,038
488,165
541,969
589,351
548,615
506,786
548,621
496,147
540,960
554,008
498,527
517,378
503,475
489,190
491,874
476,505
478,587
486,506
477,961
458,318
426,331
476,731
327,184
297,557
415,315
384,554
450,893
443,401
485,169
437,262
386,556
425,458
453,234
538,803
469,707
505,995
543,473
597,918
677,742
1.927326867
1.898211259
1.821677901
1.871157082
1.776045032
1.667429135
1.564045916
1.673354007
1.590483408
1.629323666
1.719389008
1.802818007
1.730854124
1.659947541
1.730864509
1.64238097
1.71765502
1.740213836
1.646294492
1.67762315
1.654460543
1.630994579
1.635378049
1.610436081
1.613792502
1.626622859
1.612782584
1.581411812
1.53162766
1.610800081
1.387056672
1.346565127
1.514847843
1.46895902
1.569713314
1.557996966
1.624449518
1.548461721
1.471902821
1.530291133
1.573392317
1.713954031
1.599525464
1.658635042
1.721976915
1.818329095
1.969425744
jul-13
ago-13
sep-13
oct-13
nov-13
dic-13
0.0
3,125.5
3,251.4
3,193.3
2,846.3
3,365.5
0
4,889,255
5,020,283
4,705,416
4,553,132
5,206,687
669,384
616,318
670,953
631,298
580,546
650,569
1.953033881
1.852096054
1.956100597
1.8800493
1.787013874
1.916631082
509216.5 509793.371
x
1,463
1,522
1,455
1,377
1,372
1,410
1,458
1,493
1,447
1,451
1,487
1,487
1,589
1,628
1,643
1,652
1,641
1,672
1,754
1,759
1,685
1,548
1,550
1,507
1,534
1,522
1,559
1,502
1,496
1,553
1,582
1,628
1,624
1,792
1,656
1,642
y
387,871
349,192
403,141
360,820
367,931
408,234
424,836
422,804
410,837
454,621
405,474
418,258
495,334
491,421
566,070
559,549
561,521
558,504
579,083
593,035
556,677
592,105
587,679
597,370
634,804
563,807
458,838
564,512
528,193
589,519
463,220
581,350
623,817
576,017
577,978
617,372
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Real
ene-06
feb-06
mar-06
abr-06
may-06
jun-06
jul-06
ago-06
sep-06
oct-06
nov-06
dic-06
ene-07
feb-07
mar-07
abr-07
may-07
jun-07
jul-07
ago-07
sep-07
oct-07
nov-07
dic-07
ene-08
feb-08
mar-08
abr-08
may-08
jun-08
jul-08
ago-08
sep-08
oct-08
nov-08
dic-08
ene-09
y = 77076e0.0012x
Rfeb-09
= 0.4866
mar-09
abr-09
may-09
jun-09
jul-09
387,871
349,192
403,141
360,820
367,931
408,234
424,836
422,804
410,837
454,621
405,474
418,258
495,334
491,421
566,070
559,549
561,521
558,504
579,083
593,035
556,677
592,105
587,679
597,370
634,804
563,807
458,838
564,512
528,193
589,519
463,220
581,350
623,817
576,017
577,978
617,372
428,191
550,909
598,164
636,073
683,152
615,435
689,229
Calculado
400540.466
330550.587
405376.229
354317.284
376264.351
410726.481
445887.001
454656.742
424788.46
436339.638
400930.112
410441.56
566588.407
529533.736
590966.815
572211.88
593153.981
596954.596
595773.928
578304.329
534194.984
570736.283
561623.517
567006.691
584037.34
528474.267
548120.404
545733.726
548805.674
585509.904
509307.511
553922.36
528436.636
558394.319
571559.354
582391.809
510351.646
490461.149
554143.761
487354.671
507112.46
517604.798
562192.266
100,000
0
0
200
ago-09
sep-09
400oct-09 600
nov-09
Series1
dic-09
ene-10
feb-10
mar-10
abr-10
may-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
sep-10
oct-10
nov-10
dic-10
ene-11
feb-11
mar-11
abr-11
may-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
sep-11
oct-11
nov-11
dic-11
ene-12
feb-12
mar-12
abr-12
may-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
sep-12
oct-12
nov-12
dic-12
ene-13
feb-13
mar-13
abr-13
may-13
jun-13
656,134 543453.828
640,912 524042.342
599,758
800 553299.288
1,000
1,200
626,557 564354.021
Linear (Series1)
574,389
537676.21
511,283 513446.038
447,276 448942.239
514,830
518716.64
464,038 483242.921
488,165 502402.282
541,969 556366.345
589,351 569281.341
548,615
532827.75
506,786 485160.438
548,621 528892.757
496,147 487655.588
540,960 540050.194
554,008
573905.48
498,527 504299.388
517,378 546858.214
503,475 511458.801
489,190 510899.086
491,874 522530.678
476,505 497103.792
478,587 504272.234
486,506 488087.546
477,961 464630.051
458,318
464483.15
426,331 437221.546
476,731 495263.595
327,184 328599.074
297,557 283990.456
415,315 435518.243
384,554 448387.398
450,893 461144.717
443,401 482883.992
485,169 524108.563
437,262 458142.118
386,556
425,458 394560.149
453,234 406186.596
538,803 502463.637
469,707 422039.298
505,995 453707.821
543,473 486213.409
597,918
582568.44
677,742 710241.905
jul-13
ago-13
sep-13
oct-13
nov-13
dic-13
669,384
616,318
670,953
631,298
580,546
650,569
652356.653
681231.597
640822.967
588262.67
716301.222
y = 574.23x - 386277
R = 0.4752
Calculado
sep-12
may-12
ene-12
sep-11
may-11
ene-11
sep-10
may-10
ene-10
may-09
ene-09
sep-08
may-08
12669.4664
-18641.4129
2235.22913
-6502.71577
8333.35134
2492.48126
21051.0006
31852.7422
13951.4603
-18281.3622
-4543.88797
-7816.44023
71254.4067
38112.736
24896.8155
12662.8799
31632.9815
38450.5956
16690.9283
-14730.6714 Real
-22482.0164
-21368.717
-26055.4832
-30363.3089
-50766.6603
-35332.7332
89282.4043
-18778.2736
20612.6736
-4009.09606
46087.511
-27427.6396
-95380.3636
-17622.6809
-6418.64555
-34980.1907
ene-08
sep-07
may-07
ene-07
may-06
ene-06
calculado
-108676.034
-178665.913
-103840.271
-154899.216
-132952.149
-98490.0187
-63329.4994
-54559.7578
-84428.0397
-72876.8622
-108286.388
-98774.9402
57371.9067
20317.236
81750.3155
62995.3799
83937.4815
87738.0956
86557.4283
69087.8286
24978.4836
61519.783
52407.0168
57790.1911
74820.8397
19257.7668
38903.9043
36517.2264
39589.1736
76293.4039
91.0110336
44705.8604
19220.1364
49177.8191
62342.8544
73175.3093
sep-06
real
-121345.5
-160024.5
700,000
-106075.5
-148396.5
600,000
-141285.5
-100982.5
500,000 -84380.5
-86412.5
400,000 -98379.5
-54595.5
300,000-103742.5
-90958.5
200,000 -13882.5
-17795.5
100,000 56853.5
50332.5
0 52304.5
49287.5
69866.5
83818.5
47460.5
82888.5
78462.5
88153.5
125587.5
54590.5
-50378.5
55295.5
18976.5
80302.5
-45996.5
72133.5
114600.5
66800.5
68761.5
108155.5
800,000
sep-09
0.85105931 0.06876317
68630.07
R2
CV
RMSE
R = 0.4752
1,200
1,400
Expon. (Series1)
1,600
1,800
2,000
sep-13
may-13
ene-13
sep-12
may-12
XLSTAT 2013.6.01 - Linear regression - on 30/01/2014 at 10:52:02

Y / Quantitative: Workbook = carguio.xlsx / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$E$4:$E$40 / 36 rows and 1 column
X / Quantitative: Workbook = carguio.xlsx / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$B$4:$C$40 / 36 rows and 2 columns
Confidence interval (%): 95
Tolerance: 0,0001
Summary statistics:
Variable
m3 ln
h
t
Observations
Obs. with missing
Obs. without
data missing data
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
36
0
36
1.418
1.887
1.670
36
0
36
1696.700
2919.600
2508.764
36
0
36 2582176.000 4814440.000 3932386.889
Correlation matrix:
Variables
h
t
m3 ln
t
1.000
0.950
0.890
0.950
1.000
0.906
Multicolinearity statistics:
Statistic
Tolerance
VIF
0.097
10.314
0.097
10.314
Regression of variable m3 ln:

Goodness of fit statistics:
Observations
Sum of weights
DF
R
Adjusted R
MSE
RMSE
MAPE
DW
Cp
AIC
36.000
36.000
33.000
0.829
0.819
0.004
0.061
2.627
1.464
3.000
-198.286
m3 ln
0.890
0.906
1.000
SBC
PC
-193.535
0.202
Analysis of variance:
Source
DF
Sum of squaresMean squares
Model
2
0.601
0.300
Error
33
0.124
0.004
Corrected Total
35
0.724
Computed against model Y=Mean(Y)
F
80.245
Pr > F
< 0,0001
Model parameters:
Source
Intercept
h
t
Value
Standard error
0.841
0.092
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
t
9.166
1.288
2.700
Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Upper bound (95%)
< 0,0001
0.654
1.028
0.207
0.000
0.000
0.011
0.000
0.000
Equation of the model:

m3 ln = 0,840942911657026+1,277616035991E-04*h+1,29355304960516E-07*t
Standardized coefficients:
Source
h
t
Value
Standard error
0.297
0.231
0.623
0.231
t
1.288
2.700
m3 ln / Standardized coefficients
(95% conf. interval)
1.2
Standardized coefficients
1
0.8
t
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

Upper bound (95%)
0.207
-0.172
0.767
0.011
0.154
1.093
-0.2
-0.4
Variable
Predictions and residuals:

Observation
Obs1
Obs2
Obs3
Obs4
Obs5
Obs6
Obs7
Obs8
Obs9
Obs10
Obs11
Obs12
Obs13
Obs14
Obs15
Obs16
Obs17
Obs18
Obs19
Obs20
Obs21
Obs22
Obs23
Obs24
Obs25
Obs26
Obs27
Obs28
Obs29
Obs30
Obs31
Obs32
Obs33
Obs34
Obs35
Obs36
Weight
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
m3 ln
Pred(m3 ln)
1.474
1.493
1.418
1.392
1.497
1.500
1.435
1.425
1.445
1.457
1.504
1.508
1.529
1.562
1.526
1.576
1.508
1.529
1.576
1.547
1.500
1.493
1.519
1.507
1.641
1.762
1.635
1.698
1.761
1.806
1.750
1.772
1.753
1.810
1.748
1.817
1.784
1.814
1.809
1.783
1.745
1.706
1.808
1.770
1.800
1.754
1.817
1.763
1.887
1.793
1.757
1.696
1.582
1.730
1.759
1.726
1.696
1.731
1.803
1.796
1.589
1.664
1.788
1.740
1.866
1.696
1.779
1.748
1.782
1.771
1.854
1.790
Residual
Std. residual
Std. dev. on pred. (Mean)
-0.019
-0.307
0.017
0.026
0.428
0.030
-0.003
-0.055
0.017
0.009
0.152
0.022
-0.012
-0.198
0.021
-0.004
-0.061
0.018
-0.033
-0.532
0.015
-0.049
-0.807
0.013
-0.021
-0.346
0.016
0.029
0.466
0.015
0.007
0.111
0.018
0.012
0.193
0.017
-0.121
-1.981
0.013
-0.064
-1.038
0.012
-0.044
-0.726
0.015
-0.022
-0.364
0.014
-0.056
-0.921
0.015
-0.069
-1.120
0.016
-0.030
-0.491
0.024
0.026
0.432
0.024
0.039
0.634
0.018
0.038
0.625
0.017
0.046
0.757
0.015
0.054
0.888
0.021
0.093
1.526
0.021
0.061
0.997
0.014
-0.148
-2.415
0.013
0.033
0.535
0.018
-0.035
-0.577
0.020
0.007
0.118
0.019
-0.075
-1.225
0.011
0.048
0.791
0.012
0.170
2.774
0.012
0.031
0.508
0.029
0.011
0.186
0.014
0.064
1.042
0.014
0
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.55
1.6
1.65
1.7
-1
-2
1.75
1.8
1.85
1.9
0
1.3
-1
-2
-3
m3 ln
Cook's distances
0.12
0.1
Cook's distance
Pred(m3 ln) / Standardized
Standardized residuals
m3 ln / Standardized residuals
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
Observations
-3
1.4
1.5
36 rows and 1 column

36 rows and 2 columns
Std. deviation
0.144
334.905
693333.573
r bound (95%)
r bound (95%)
Lower bound 95%

Upper
(Mean)
bound
Std.
95%
dev.
(Mean)
on pred.
Lower
(Observation)
bound 95%
Upper
(Observation)
bound 95% (Observation)
Cook's D
1.457
1.528
0.064
1.363
1.622
0.003
1.332
1.452
0.068
1.253
1.530
0.024
1.466
1.534
0.063
1.371
1.629
0.000
1.381
1.470
0.065
1.293
1.557
0.001
1.415
1.499
0.065
1.325
1.588
0.002
1.472
1.544
0.064
1.378
1.638
0.000
1.532
1.591
0.063
1.434
1.690
0.006
1.549
1.602
0.063
1.448
1.703
0.011
1.497
1.561
0.063
1.401
1.658
0.003
1.516
1.578
0.063
1.419
1.675
0.005
1.457
1.529
0.064
1.364
1.623
0.000
1.474
1.541
0.063
1.378
1.637
0.001
1.736
1.789
0.063
1.635
1.890
0.065
1.673
1.723
0.062
1.571
1.825
0.016
1.775
1.836
0.063
1.678
1.934
0.012
1.744
1.801
0.063
1.644
1.900
0.003
1.779
1.840
0.063
1.681
1.938
0.019
1.783
1.850
0.063
1.688
1.945
0.035
1.766
1.862
0.066
1.681
1.948
0.016
1.734
1.832
0.066
1.649
1.917
0.014
1.670
1.742
0.064
1.577
1.836
0.013
1.735
1.804
0.063
1.640
1.899
0.011
1.723
1.784
0.063
1.625
1.882
0.013
1.720
1.806
0.065
1.631
1.895
0.040
1.751
1.835
0.065
1.662
1.925
0.111
1.669
1.724
0.063
1.569
1.824
0.018
1.704
1.756
0.062
1.603
1.857
0.092
1.689
1.763
0.064
1.596
1.856
0.010
1.691
1.771
0.064
1.601
1.862
0.014
1.758
1.834
0.064
1.666
1.926
0.001
1.643
1.686
0.062
1.538
1.790
0.016
1.715
1.765
0.062
1.613
1.867
0.009
1.672
1.721
0.062
1.569
1.823
0.108
1.689
1.806
0.068
1.610
1.885
0.031
1.742
1.800
0.063
1.643
1.899
0.001
1.761
1.819
0.063
1.663
1.918
0.022
Pred(m3 ln) / Standardized residuals
Pred(m3 ln) / m3 ln
1.9
1.8
m3 ln
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
Pred(m3 ln)
1.4
1.5
1.6
Pred(m3 ln)
1.7
07-10
04-10
calculado
-108676.034
-178665.913
-103840.271
-154899.216
-132952.149
-98490.0187
-63329.4994
-54559.7578
-84428.0397
-72876.8622
-108286.388
-98774.9402
57371.9067
20317.236
81750.3155
62995.3799
83937.4815
87738.0956
86557.4283
69087.8286
Consumo calculado
24978.4836
61519.783
52407.0168
57790.1911
74820.8397
19257.7668
38903.9043
36517.2264
39589.1736
76293.4039
91.0110336
44705.8604
19220.1364
49177.8191
62342.8544
73175.3093
01-10
07-09
04-09
01-09
-121,346
-160,025
-106,076
-148,397
-141,286
-100,983
-84,381
-86,413
-98,380
-54,596
-103,743
-90,959
-13,883
-17,796
56,854
50,333
52,305
49,288
69,867
83,819
Consumo medido
47,461
82,889
78,463
88,154
125,588
54,591
-50,379
55,296
18,977
80,303
-45,997
72,134
114,601
66,801
68,762
108,156
10-08
07-08
04-08
real
01-08
10-07
07-07
Calculado
400540.466
330550.587
405376.229
354317.284
376264.351
410726.481
445887.001
454656.742
424788.46
436339.638
400930.112
410441.56
566588.407
529533.736
590966.815
572211.88
593153.981
596954.596
595773.928
578304.329
534194.984
570736.283
561623.517
567006.691
584037.34
528474.267
548120.404
545733.726
548805.674
585509.904
509307.511
553922.36
528436.636
558394.319
571559.354
582391.809
510351.646
490461.149
554143.761
487354.671
507112.46
517604.798
01-07
10-06
387,871
349,192
403,141
360,820
367,931
408,234
424,836
422,804
410,837
454,621
405,474
418,258
495,334
491,421
566,070
559,549
561,521
558,504
579,083
593,035
556,677
592,105
587,679
597,370
634,804
563,807
458,838
564,512
528,193
589,519
463,220
581,350
623,817
576,017
577,978
617,372
428,191
550,909
598,164
636,073
683,152
615,435
07-06
01-06
04-06
Real
ene-06
700,000
feb-06
mar-06
abr-06
600,000
may-06
jun-06
500,000
jul-06
ago-06
400,000
sep-06
oct-06
300,000
nov-06
dic-06
ene-07
200,000
feb-07
mar-07
100,000
abr-07
may-07
0
jun-07
jul-07
ago-07
sep-07
oct-07
nov-07
dic-07
ene-08
feb-08
mar-08
abr-08
may-08
jun-08
jul-08
ago-08
sep-08
oct-08
nov-08
dic-08
ene-09
feb-09
mar-09
abr-09
may-09
jun-09
04-07
800,000
0.85105931 0.06979726
R2
CV
10-09
509216.5 509793.371
jul-09
ago-09
sep-09
oct-09
nov-09
dic-09
ene-10
feb-10
mar-10
abr-10
may-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
sep-10
oct-10
nov-10
dic-10
ene-11
feb-11
mar-11
abr-11
may-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
sep-11
oct-11
nov-11
dic-11
ene-12
feb-12
mar-12
abr-12
may-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
sep-12
oct-12
nov-12
dic-12
ene-13
feb-13
mar-13
abr-13
689,229
656,134
640,912
599,758
626,557
574,389
511,283
447,276
514,830
464,038
488,165
541,969
589,351
548,615
506,786
548,621
496,147
540,960
554,008
498,527
517,378
503,475
489,190
491,874
476,505
478,587
486,506
477,961
458,318
426,331
476,731
327,184
297,557
415,315
384,554
450,893
443,401
485,169
437,262
386,556
425,458
453,234
538,803
469,707
505,995
543,473
562192.266
543453.828
524042.342
553299.288
564354.021
537676.21
513446.038
448942.239
518716.64
483242.921
502402.282
556366.345
569281.341
532827.75
485160.438
528892.757
487655.588
540050.194
573905.48
504299.388
546858.214
511458.801
510899.086
522530.678
497103.792
504272.234
488087.546
464630.051
464483.15
437221.546
495263.595
328599.074
283990.456
435518.243
448387.398
461144.717
482883.992
524108.563
458142.118
394560.149
406186.596
502463.637
422039.298
453707.821
486213.409
may-13
jun-13
jul-13
ago-13
sep-13
oct-13
nov-13
dic-13
597,918
677,742
669,384
616,318
670,953
631,298
580,546
650,569
582568.44
710241.905
652356.653
681231.597
640822.967
588262.67
716301.222
Standardized residuals / m3 ln
Observations
Obs35
Obs33
Obs31
Obs29
Obs27
Obs25
Obs23
Obs21
Obs19
Obs17
Obs15
Obs13
Obs11
Obs9
Obs7
Obs5
Obs3
Obs1
1.8
1.9
-3
-2
-1
10-13
07-13
04-13
01-13
10-12
07-12
04-12
01-12
10-11
04-11
01-11
10-10
07-10
12,669
-18641.4129
2235.22913
-6502.71577
8333.35134
2492.48126
21051.0006
31852.7422
13951.4603
-18281.3622
-4543.88797
-7816.44023
71254.4067
38112.736
24896.8155
12662.8799
31632.9815
38450.5956
16690.9283
-14730.6714
Consumo calculado
-22482.0164
-21368.717
-26055.4832
-30363.3089
-50766.6603
-35332.7332
89282.4043
-18778.2736
20612.6736
-4009.09606
46087.511
-27427.6396
-95380.3636
-17622.6809
-6418.64555
-34980.1907
07-11
69662.1591
RMSE

Y / Quantitative: Workbook = carguio.xlsx / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$E$4:$E$40 / 36 rows and 1 column
Tolerance: 0,0001
Summary statistics:
Variable
m3 ln
h
t
Observations
Obs. with missing
Obs. without
data missing data
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
36
0
36
12.763
13.361
13.125
36
0
36
1696.700
2919.600
2508.764
36
0
36 2582176.000 4814440.000 3932386.889
Correlation matrix:
Variables
h
t
m3 ln
t
1.000
0.950
0.913
0.950
1.000
0.928
Statistic
Tolerance
VIF
0.097
10.314
0.097
10.314
Regression of variable m3 ln:

Observations
Sum of weights
DF
R
Adjusted R
MSE
RMSE
MAPE
DW
Cp
AIC
36.000
36.000
33.000
0.871
0.863
0.004
0.067
0.374
1.556
3.000
-191.776
m3 ln
0.913
0.928
1.000
SBC
PC
-187.025
0.152
Source
DF
Model
2
1.000
0.500
Error
33
0.148
0.004
Corrected Total
35
1.148
F
111.504
Pr > F
< 0,0001
Model parameters:
Source
Intercept
h
t
Value
Standard error
12.048
0.100
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
t
119.976
1.618
3.085

Upper bound (95%)
< 0,0001
11.844
12.253
0.115
0.000
0.000
0.004
0.000
0.000

m3 ln = 12,048363954761+1,75619791121939E-04*h+1,61800334187359E-07*t
Source
h
t
Value
Standard error
0.325
0.201
0.619
0.201
t
1.618
3.085
m3 ln / Standardized coefficients
1.2
0.8
t
0.6
0.4
0.2

Upper bound (95%)
0.115
-0.084
0.733
0.004
0.211
1.028
-0.2
Variable

Observation
Obs1
Obs2
Obs3
Obs4
Obs5
Obs6
Obs7
Obs8
Obs9
Obs10
Obs11
Obs12
Obs13
Obs14
Obs15
Obs16
Obs17
Obs18
Obs19
Obs20
Obs21
Obs22
Obs23
Obs24
Obs25
Obs26
Obs27
Obs28
Obs29
Obs30
Obs31
Obs32
Obs33
Obs34
Obs35
Obs36
Weight
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
m3 ln
Pred(m3 ln)
12.868
12.896
12.763
12.764
12.907
12.906
12.796
12.809
12.816
12.851
12.920
12.917
12.959
12.986
12.955
13.004
12.926
12.944
13.027
12.967
12.913
12.896
12.944
12.915
13.113
13.244
13.105
13.161
13.246
13.300
13.235
13.256
13.238
13.305
13.233
13.314
13.269
13.309
13.293
13.269
13.230
13.170
13.291
13.255
13.284
13.234
13.300
13.247
13.361
13.286
13.242
13.160
13.036
13.203
13.244
13.199
13.177
13.206
13.287
13.289
13.046
13.117
13.273
13.215
13.344
13.158
13.264
13.223
13.267
13.255
13.333
13.280
Residual
Std. residual
Std. dev. on pred. (Mean)
-0.028
-0.412
0.019
-0.001
-0.011
0.032
0.002
0.023
0.018
-0.013
-0.198
0.024
-0.035
-0.522
0.023
0.003
0.044
0.019
-0.027
-0.399
0.016
-0.049
-0.730
0.014
-0.018
-0.268
0.017
0.060
0.900
0.017
0.016
0.244
0.019
0.029
0.431
0.018
-0.131
-1.963
0.014
-0.056
-0.830
0.013
-0.053
-0.799
0.016
-0.021
-0.320
0.015
-0.067
-0.996
0.016
-0.081
-1.202
0.018
-0.040
-0.601
0.026
0.024
0.364
0.027
0.060
0.891
0.019
0.037
0.549
0.018
0.050
0.749
0.017
0.053
0.798
0.023
0.075
1.125
0.023
0.082
1.232
0.015
-0.167
-2.488
0.014
0.045
0.672
0.020
-0.029
-0.426
0.021
-0.002
-0.026
0.020
-0.071
-1.064
0.012
0.058
0.867
0.013
0.185
2.767
0.013
0.041
0.616
0.032
0.013
0.187
0.016
0.053
0.795
0.016
0
12.7
12.8
12.9
13
13.1
-1
-2
13.2
13.3
13.4
0
12.7
-1
-2
-3
m3 ln
Cook's distances
0.12
0.1
Cook's distance
Pred(m3 ln) / Standardized
m3 ln / Standardized residuals
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
Observations
-3
12.8
12.9
36 rows and 1 column

36 rows and 2 columns
Std. deviation
0.181
334.905
693333.573
r bound (95%)
r bound (95%)
Lower bound 95%

Upper
(Mean)
bound
Std.
95%
dev.
(Mean)
on pred.
Lower
(Observation)
bound 95%
Upper
(Observation)
Cook's D
12.857
12.935
0.070
12.754
13.038
0.005
12.698
12.830
0.074
12.613
12.915
0.000
12.868
12.943
0.069
12.764
13.047
0.000
12.761
12.858
0.071
12.665
12.954
0.002
12.805
12.896
0.071
12.707
12.994
0.013
12.877
12.956
0.070
12.775
13.059
0.000
12.954
13.018
0.069
12.846
13.126
0.003
12.975
13.032
0.068
12.864
13.143
0.009
12.909
12.979
0.069
12.803
13.085
0.002
12.933
13.001
0.069
12.827
13.107
0.019
12.857
12.936
0.070
12.755
13.038
0.002
12.878
12.952
0.069
12.774
13.056
0.005
13.215
13.274
0.068
13.105
13.384
0.064
13.133
13.188
0.068
13.022
13.300
0.010
13.267
13.333
0.069
13.160
13.440
0.014
13.225
13.288
0.069
13.116
13.396
0.002
13.272
13.339
0.069
13.165
13.445
0.023
13.277
13.350
0.069
13.172
13.455
0.040
13.257
13.362
0.072
13.163
13.455
0.025
13.215
13.323
0.072
13.122
13.415
0.010
13.131
13.209
0.070
13.028
13.312
0.026
13.217
13.292
0.069
13.113
13.396
0.009
13.200
13.268
0.069
13.093
13.374
0.013
13.200
13.294
0.071
13.103
13.391
0.032
13.240
13.332
0.071
13.142
13.429
0.061
13.130
13.190
0.069
13.020
13.300
0.028
13.175
13.231
0.068
13.064
13.342
0.097
13.158
13.239
0.070
13.057
13.341
0.016
13.162
13.249
0.070
13.063
13.349
0.008
13.247
13.330
0.070
13.146
13.431
0.000
13.094
13.141
0.068
12.979
13.255
0.012
13.188
13.242
0.068
13.076
13.354
0.011
13.131
13.185
0.068
13.019
13.297
0.107
13.159
13.287
0.074
13.072
13.373
0.046
13.223
13.286
0.069
13.115
13.395
0.001
13.248
13.312
0.069
13.140
13.420
0.013
Pred(m3 ln) / Standardized residuals
Pred(m3 ln) / m3 ln
13.4
13.3
m3 ln
13.2
12.9
13
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
13.1
13
12.9
12.8
12.7
12.7
Pred(m3 ln)
12.8
12.9
13
13.1
Pred(m3 ln)
13.2
509,217
ene-06
feb-06
mar-06
abr-06
may-06
jun-06
jul-06
ago-06
sep-06
oct-06
nov-06
dic-06
ene-07
feb-07
mar-07
abr-07
may-07
jun-07
jul-07
ago-07
sep-07
oct-07
nov-07
dic-07
ene-08
feb-08
mar-08
abr-08
may-08
jun-08
jul-08
ago-08
sep-08
oct-08
nov-08
dic-08
ene-09
feb-09
mar-09
abr-09
may-09
jun-09
508163.524
Consumo medido
Consumo calculado
387,871 398720.489
349,192 349456.718
403,141 402531.866
360,820 365630.431
367,931 381030.129
408,234
407027.46
424,836 436328.463
422,804 443976.953
410,837 418272.486
454,621 428032.694
405,474 398896.524
418,258 406365.191
495,334 564932.075
491,421
519502.28
566,070 597178.965
559,549 571659.191
561,521 600278.166
558,504 605338.638
579,083 602857.328
593,035
578768.91
556,677 524424.654
592,105
570737.9
587,679 558933.604
597,370 566280.088
634,804 588724.917
563,807
519166.09
458,838
542040.94
564,512 539661.524
528,193 543463.984
589,519 590548.071
463,220 497423.164
581,350 548543.005
623,817 518281.454
576,017 552737.295
577,978 570770.004
617,372 585365.212
428,191 498327.101
550,909 477633.804
598,164 548472.552
636,073 473920.523
683,152 494197.485
615,435
505492.54
0.85139429 0.07108208
R2
CV
real
-121,346
-160,025
-106,076
-148,397
-141,286
-100,983
-84,381
-86,413
-98,380
-54,596
-103,743
-90,959
-13,883
-17,796
56,854
50,333
52,305
49,288
69,867
83,819
47,461
82,889
78,463
88,154
125,588
54,591
-50,379
55,296
18,977
80,303
-45,997
72,134
114,601
66,801
68,762
108,156
calculado
-110496.011
-159759.782
-106684.634
-143586.069
-128186.371
-102189.04
-72888.0367
-65239.5465
-90944.0142
-81183.8064
-110319.976
-102851.309
55715.5751
10285.7805
87962.4651
62442.691
91061.666
96122.1381
93640.8281
69552.41
15208.1535
61521.4
49717.1044
57063.5883
79508.4175
9949.59022
32824.4403
30445.0241
34247.484
81331.5706
-11793.3359
39326.5047
9064.95437
43520.7952
61553.504
76148.7123
jul-09
ago-09
sep-09
oct-09
nov-09
dic-09
ene-10
feb-10
mar-10
abr-10
may-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
sep-10
oct-10
nov-10
dic-10
ene-11
feb-11
mar-11
abr-11
may-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
sep-11
oct-11
nov-11
dic-11
ene-12
feb-12
mar-12
abr-12
may-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
sep-12
oct-12
nov-12
dic-12
ene-13
feb-13
mar-13
abr-13
689,229
656,134
640,912
599,758
626,557
574,389
511,283
447,276
514,830
464,038
488,165
541,969
589,351
548,615
506,786
548,621
496,147
540,960
554,008
498,527
517,378
503,475
489,190
491,874
476,505
478,587
486,506
477,961
458,318
426,331
476,731
327,184
297,557
415,315
384,554
450,893
443,401
485,169
437,262
386,556
425,458
453,234
538,803
469,707
505,995
543,473
557875.869
533997.029
511862.446
546062.354
559902.717
527208.567
499770.352
436557.183
505043.99
467974.045
487934.856
549970.048
566779.708
522118.689
470802.376
517284.324
473252.952
529869.453
572030.056
490147.644
537426.097
497456.918
496728.123
509519.828
482835.112
490613.242
473991.814
451481.029
451124.986
427337.929
481427.155
347610.821
321570.33
425036.858
436603.166
448620.281
469997.697
800,000
512829.354
700,000
446737.253
600,000
394560.149
500,000
406186.596
400,000
502463.637
300,000
422039.298
200,000
453707.821
100,000
486213.409
0
652356.653
681231.597
640822.967
588262.67
Consumo medido
08-10
03-10
10-09
05-09
12-08
07-08
02-08
09-07
04-07
582568.440
710241.905
11-06
597,918
677,742
669,384
616,318
670,953
631,298
580,546
650,569
06-06
may-13
jun-13
jul-13
ago-13
sep-13
oct-13
nov-13
dic-13
01-06
100,000
Consumo calculado
Standardized residuals / m3 ln
Observations
Obs35
Obs33
Obs31
Obs29
Obs27
Obs25
Obs23
Obs21
Obs19
Obs17
Obs15
Obs13
Obs11
Obs9
Obs7
Obs5
Obs3
Obs1
13.2
13.3
13.4
-3
-2
-1
70944.4911
RMSE
10,849
264.718305
-609.134129
4810.43066
13099.1287
-1206.54016
11492.4633
21172.9535
7435.48584
-26588.3064
-6577.47622
-11892.8091
69598.0751
28081.2805
31108.9651
12110.191
38757.166
46834.6381
23774.3281
-14266.09
-32252.3465
-21367.1
-28745.3956
-31089.9117
-46079.0825
-44640.9098
83202.9403
-24850.4759
15270.984
1029.07057
34203.1641
-32806.9953
-105535.546
-23279.7048
-7207.99604
-32006.7877
Consumo calculado
12-13
07-13
02-13
09-12
04-12
11-11
06-11
01-11
08-10
03-10

Y / Quantitative: Workbook = carguio.xlsx / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$D$4:$D$40 / 36 rows and 1 column
Tolerance: 0,0001
Summary statistics:
Variable
m3
h
t
Observations Obs. with missing data

Obs. without missing dataMinimum
Maximum
36
0
36 349192.000 634804.000
36
0
36
1696.700
2919.600
36
0
36 2582176.000 4814440.000
Correlation matrix:
Variables
h
t
m3
1.000
0.950
0.898
m3
0.950
1.000
0.914
Statistic
Tolerance
VIF
t
0.097
10.314
Regression of variable m3:

Observations
36.000
Sum of weights
36.000
DF
33.000
R
0.845
Adjusted R
0.836
MSE
1263911035.532
RMSE
35551.526
MAPE
4.969
DW
1.493
Cp
3.000
AIC
757.337
0.097
10.314
0.898
0.914
1.000
SBC
PC
762.087
0.183
Source
DF
Sum of squares
Mean squares
Model
2 227232598664.431 113616299332.216
Error
33 41709064172.569
1263911035.532
Corrected Total
35 268941662837.000
F
89.893
Pr > F
< 0,0001
Model parameters:
Source
Intercept
h
t
Value
-1300.082
79.497
0.079
Standard error
53303.278
57.627
0.028
t
-0.024
1.380
2.842

0.981 -109746.416
0.177
-37.745
0.008
0.022

m3 = -1300,08230829093+79,4974363667899*h+7,91062256796258E-02*t
Source
Value
h
t
0.304
0.626
Standard error
0.220
0.220
t
1.380
2.842
m3 / Standardized coefficients
1.2
1
0.8
t
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

0.177
-0.144
0.008
0.178
-0.2
-0.4
Variable

Observation
Obs1
Obs2
Obs3
Obs4
Obs5
Obs6
Obs7
Obs8
Obs9
Obs10
Obs11
Obs12
Obs13
Obs14
Obs15
Obs16
Obs17
Obs18
Obs19
Obs20
Obs21
Obs22
Obs23
Obs24
Obs25
Obs26
Obs27
Obs28
Obs29
Obs30
Obs31
Obs32
Obs33
Obs34
Obs35
Obs36
Weight
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
m3
387871.000
349192.000
403141.000
360820.000
367931.000
408234.000
424836.000
422804.000
410837.000
454621.000
405474.000
418258.000
495334.000
491421.000
566070.000
559549.000
561521.000
558504.000
579083.000
593035.000
556677.000
592105.000
587679.000
597370.000
634804.000
563807.000
458838.000
564512.000
528193.000
589519.000
463220.000
581350.000
623817.000
576017.000
577978.000
617372.000
Pred(m3)
400042.524
337849.415
404507.350
358611.109
378097.752
409517.931
442692.316
451120.207
422623.667
433561.890
400373.543
409160.985
565890.529
526372.627
592581.970
571916.726
595019.803
599214.551
597780.507
578437.223
531181.946
570461.708
560574.089
566467.605
585072.011
525411.326
546081.543
543625.088
546905.124
586669.659
505501.289
552180.025
525231.882
556764.736
571200.213
583093.131
Residual
Std. residual
-12171.524
-0.342
11342.585
0.319
-1366.350
-0.038
2208.891
0.062
-10166.752
-0.286
-1283.931
-0.036
-17856.316
-0.502
-28316.207
-0.796
-11786.667
-0.332
21059.110
0.592
5100.457
0.143
9097.015
0.256
-70556.529
-1.985
-34951.627
-0.983
-26511.970
-0.746
-12367.726
-0.348
-33498.803
-0.942
-40710.551
-1.145
-18697.507
-0.526
14597.777
0.411
25495.054
0.717
21643.292
0.609
27104.911
0.762
30902.395
0.869
49731.989
1.399
38395.674
1.080
-87243.543
-2.454
20886.912
0.588
-18712.124
-0.526
2849.341
0.080
-42281.289
-1.189
29169.975
0.820
98585.118
2.773
19252.264
0.542
6777.787
0.191
34278.869
0.964
0
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
-1
-2
550000
600000
650000
0
300000
-1
-2
-3
m3
Cook's distances
0.12
0.1
Cook's distance
Pred(m3) / Standardi
m3 / Standardized residuals
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
Observations
-3
350000
400000
rows and 1 column

rows and 2 columns
Mean
Std. deviation
509216.500
87658.699
2508.764
334.905
3932386.889 693333.573
Upper bound (95%)

107146.252
196.740
0.136
Upper bound (95%)

0.752
1.074
Std. dev. on pred.

Lower
(Mean)
bound 95%
Upper
(Mean)
bound
Std.
95%
dev.
(Mean)
on pred.
Lower
(Observation)
bound 95%
Upper
(Observation)
Cook's D
10102.699 379488.428 420596.619
36959.107 324848.656 475236.392
0.004
17170.996 302914.762 372784.069
39481.060 257524.594 418174.237
0.013
9803.575 384561.827 424452.874
36878.464 329477.551 479537.150
0.000
12747.520 332676.084 384546.134
37767.848 281771.845 435450.373
0.000
11957.573 353769.887 402425.616
37508.593 301785.944 454409.559
0.004
10310.353 388541.360 430494.502
37016.407 334207.484 484828.378
0.000
8436.051 425529.041 459855.591
36538.719 368353.733 517030.899
0.005
7470.957 435920.431 466319.984
36328.036 377210.261 525030.153
0.010
9083.268 404143.619 441103.715
36693.552 347970.073 497277.261
0.003
8762.439 415734.574 451389.205
36615.453 359067.191 508056.588
0.008
10346.419 379323.595 421423.491
37026.469 325042.625 475704.461
0.001
9684.325 389458.078 428863.893
36846.943 334195.317 484126.654
0.002
7589.962 550448.635 581332.423
36352.697 491930.411 639850.647
0.066
7157.395 511810.797 540934.457
36264.850 452591.235 600154.019
0.014
8653.535 574976.222 610187.719
36589.544 518139.984 667023.956
0.012
8157.891 555319.373 588514.080
36475.502 497706.761 646126.692
0.002
8746.106 577225.717 612813.888
36611.547 520533.050 669506.556
0.020
9543.681 579797.786 618631.316
36810.228 524323.579 674105.523
0.037
13707.421 569892.550 625668.465
38102.551 520260.284 675300.731
0.019
14082.855 549785.439 607089.007
38239.219 500638.948 656235.498
0.012
10169.325 510492.299 551871.593
36977.374 455950.912 606412.979
0.017
9761.191 550602.416 590321.000
36867.220 495454.786 645468.631
0.011
8810.011 542649.988 578498.191
36626.866 486056.170 635092.009
0.014
12203.319 541639.766 591295.444
37587.658 489994.940 642940.270
0.038
11946.689 560766.290 609377.731
37505.125 508767.260 661376.761
0.094
7911.184 509315.901 541506.750
36421.118 451312.003 599510.648
0.021
7388.692 531049.137 561113.950
36311.208 472205.836 619957.251
0.095
10564.587 522131.274 565118.901
37088.024 468168.935 619081.240
0.012
11351.574 523810.173 570000.074
37319.824 470977.371 622832.877
0.012
10840.630 564614.232 608725.086
37167.597 511051.614 662287.704
0.000
6105.281 493080.000 517922.577
36071.949 432112.357 578890.221
0.015
7091.450 537752.362 566607.688
36251.892 478424.995 625935.054
0.010
7004.927 510980.252 539483.513
36235.066 451511.086 598952.679
0.108
16730.539 522726.197 590803.274
39291.500 476825.577 636703.894
0.036
8265.400 554384.130 588016.295
36499.697 496941.021 645459.404
0.001
8232.571 566343.839 599842.423
36492.277 508849.036 657337.227
0.019
Pred(m3) / Standardized residuals
Pred(m3) / m3
650000
600000
550000
m3
500000
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
450000
400000
350000
300000
300000
Pred(m3)
350000
400000
450000
500000
Pred(m3)
550000
0.90234764 0.06259045
R2
CV
900,000
oct-08
66,801 -4525.10652
68,762 47327.3254
108,156 67191.1745
jul-08
504691.393
556543.825
576407.675
488021.607
467494.456
529355.956
446527.547
464479.287
474614.002
abr-08
54910.6616
61637.8438
100940.491
-15692.2654
30328.889
ene-08
55,296
18,977
80,303
-45,997
72,134
oct-07
564127.162
570854.344
610156.991
493524.235
539545.389
abr-07
calculado
-109173.976
-171367.085
-104709.15
-150605.391
-131118.748
-99698.5692
-66524.1844
-58096.2929
-86592.833
-75654.6104
-108842.957
-100055.515
56674.029
17156.1272
83365.4703
62700.2265
85803.3028
89998.0509
88564.0074
69220.7229
21965.4459
61245.2084
51357.5895
57251.1053
75855.5108
16194.8258
ene-07
real
oct-06
-121,346
-160,025
-106,076
-148,397
-141,286
-100,983
-84,381
-86,413
-98,380
-54,596
-103,743
-90,959
-13,883
-17,796
56,854
50,333
52,305
49,288
69,867
83,819
47,461
82,889
78,463
88,154
125,588
54,591
jul-06
Calculado
400042.524
337849.415
404507.35
358611.109
378097.752
409517.931
442692.316
451120.207
422623.667
433561.89
400373.543
409160.985
565890.529
526372.627
592581.97
571916.726
595019.803
599214.551
597780.507
578437.223
531181.946
570461.708
560574.089
566467.605
585072.011
525411.326
abr-06
800,000
387,871
349,192
700,000
403,141
360,820
367,931
600,000
408,234
424,836
500,000
422,804
410,837
400,000
454,621
405,474
418,258
300,000
495,334
491,421
200,000
566,070
559,549
561,521
100,000
558,504
579,0830
593,035
556,677
592,105
587,679
597,370
634,804
563,807
458,838
564,512
528,193
589,519
463,220
581,350
623,817
576,017
577,978
617,372
428,191
550,909
598,164
636,073
683,152
615,435
ene-06
Real
ene-06
feb-06
mar-06
abr-06
may-06
jun-06
jul-06
ago-06
sep-06
oct-06
nov-06
dic-06
ene-07
feb-07
mar-07
abr-07
may-07
jun-07
jul-07
ago-07
sep-07
oct-07
nov-07
dic-07
ene-08
feb-08
mar-08
abr-08
may-08
jun-08
jul-08
ago-08
sep-08
oct-08
nov-08
dic-08
ene-09
feb-09
mar-09
abr-09
may-09
jun-09
ene-09
506776.245
jul-07
509,217
jul-09
ago-09
sep-09
oct-09
nov-09
dic-09
ene-10
feb-10
mar-10
abr-10
may-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
sep-10
oct-10
nov-10
dic-10
ene-11
feb-11
mar-11
abr-11
may-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
sep-11
oct-11
nov-11
dic-11
ene-12
feb-12
mar-12
abr-12
may-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
sep-12
oct-12
nov-12
dic-12
ene-13
feb-13
mar-13
abr-13
689,229
656,134
640,912
599,758
626,557
574,389
511,283
447,276
514,830
464,038
488,165
541,969
589,351
548,615
506,786
548,621
496,147
540,960
554,008
498,527
517,378
503,475
489,190
491,874
476,505
478,587
486,506
477,961
458,318
426,331
476,731
327,184
297,557
415,315
384,554
450,893
443,401
485,169
437,262
386,556
425,458
453,234
538,803
469,707
505,995
543,473
519641.211
473069.299
459550.118
488576.337
501733.617
467402.101
436582.665
377422.867
429163.624
390758.503
423018.285
495478.237
523247.016
477081.886
417682.394
463379.367
419191.155
466594.77
506789.728
431011.803
459323.187
429948.661
425953.621
439937.954
428570.496
444766.59
428189.632
409733.652
403427.912
395398.743
440242.279
316376.599
296597.559
370258.575
391744.087
417084.531
457421.385
485329.3
440394.521
424420.521
437359.669
494671.275
408440.458
431118.261
482080.03
may-13
jun-13
jul-13
ago-13
sep-13
oct-13
nov-13
dic-13
597,918
677,742
669,384
616,318
670,953
631,298
580,546
650,569
599817.953
767469.606
679994.858
723623.645
703152.58
592398.221
765576.551
Standardized residuals / m3
Observations
Obs35
Obs33
Obs31
Obs29
Obs27
Obs25
Obs23
Obs21
Obs19
Obs17
Obs15
Obs13
Obs11
Obs9
Obs7
Obs5
Obs3
Obs1
550000
600000
650000
-3
-2
-1
62469.2955
RMSE
-384.838399
42661.3438
20637.9911
30304.2346
-41804.611
-71325.6065
-21434.1746
-40964.3255
Real
oct-13
jul-13
abr-13
ene-13
oct-12
jul-12
abr-12
ene-12
oct-11
jul-11
abr-11
ene-11
oct-10
jul-10
abr-10
Calculado
ene-10
oct-09
jul-09
abr-09
ene-09
12,172
-11342.5846
1366.35033
-2208.89108
10166.7516
1283.93082
17856.3156
28316.2071
11786.667
-21059.1104
-5100.45713
-9097.01479
70556.529
34951.6272
26511.9703
12367.7265
33498.8028
40710.5509
18697.5074
-14597.7771
-25495.0541
-21643.2916
-27104.9105
-30902.3947
-49731.9892
-38395.6742
Real
Calculado

Y / Quantitative: Workbook = carguio.xlsx / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$H$4:$H$40 / 36 rows and 1 column
X / Quantitative: Workbook = carguio.xlsx / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$G$4:$G$40 / 36 rows and 1 column
Tolerance: 0,0001
Summary statistics:
Variable
y
x
Observations
Obs. with missing
Obs. without
data missing data
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
36
0
36
12.763
13.361
13.125
36
0
36 2582176.000 4814440.000 3932386.889
Correlation matrix:
Variables
x
y
y
1.000
0.928
0.928
1.000
Regression of variable y:
Observations
Sum of weights
DF
R
Adjusted R
MSE
RMSE
MAPE
DW
Cp
AIC
SBC
PC
36.000
36.000
34.000
0.861
0.857
0.005
0.069
0.392
1.545
2.000
-191.029
-187.862
0.155
Source
Model
Error
DF
1
34

0.989
0.989
0.160
0.005
F
210.387
Pr > F
< 0,0001
Corrected Total
35
1.148
Model parameters:
Source
Intercept
x
Value
Standard error
12.172
0.067
0.000
0.000
t
182.470
14.505

Upper bound (95%)
< 0,0001
12.036
12.308
< 0,0001
0.000
0.000

y = 12,171948394412+2,42414007116049E-07*x
Source
x
Value
Standard error
0.928
0.064
t
14.505

Upper bound (95%)
< 0,0001
0.798
1.058
y
12.868
12.763
Pred(y)
12.901
12.798
y / Standardized coefficients
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Variable

Observation
Obs1
Obs2
Weight
x
1 3007598.000
1 2582176.000
Residual
Std. residual
-0.033
-0.476
-0.035
-0.504
Obs3
Obs4
Obs5
Obs6
Obs7
Obs8
Obs9
Obs10
Obs11
Obs12
Obs13
Obs14
Obs15
Obs16
Obs17
Obs18
Obs19
Obs20
Obs21
Obs22
Obs23
Obs24
Obs25
Obs26
Obs27
Obs28
Obs29
Obs30
Obs31
Obs32
Obs33
Obs34
Obs35
Obs36
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3034594.000
2630174.000
2768578.000
3031708.000
3322842.000
3418628.000
3162911.000
3247620.000
3029972.000
3096537.000
4391916.000
4124403.000
4658480.000
4505780.000
4674625.000
4741922.000
4814440.000
4663578.000
4216553.000
4382169.000
4309334.000
4306354.000
4478426.000
4010450.000
4206928.000
4127638.000
4144983.000
4512189.000
3917745.000
4326429.000
4111490.000
4520254.000
4503757.000
4582747.000
12.907
12.796
12.816
12.920
12.959
12.955
12.926
13.027
12.913
12.944
13.113
13.105
13.246
13.235
13.238
13.233
13.269
13.293
13.230
13.291
13.284
13.300
13.361
13.242
13.036
13.244
13.177
13.287
13.046
13.273
13.344
13.264
13.267
13.333
12.908
12.810
12.843
12.907
12.977
13.001
12.939
12.959
12.906
12.923
13.237
13.172
13.301
13.264
13.305
13.321
13.339
13.302
13.194
13.234
13.217
13.216
13.258
13.144
13.192
13.173
13.177
13.266
13.122
13.221
13.169
13.268
13.264
13.283
-0.001
-0.013
-0.027
0.013
-0.018
-0.046
-0.013
0.068
0.006
0.021
-0.124
-0.067
-0.055
-0.029
-0.067
-0.088
-0.070
-0.009
0.036
0.057
0.067
0.084
0.103
0.098
-0.155
0.071
0.000
0.021
-0.076
0.052
0.175
-0.004
0.004
0.050
-0.008
-0.196
-0.400
0.186
-0.262
-0.671
-0.186
0.992
0.093
0.310
-1.803
-0.973
-0.799
-0.428
-0.974
-1.290
-1.019
-0.138
0.520
0.834
0.982
1.232
1.510
1.434
-2.266
1.038
0.007
0.311
-1.104
0.764
2.553
-0.056
0.052
0.735
Regression of y by x (R=0,861)
13.5
13.4
13.3
13.1
13
12.9
12.8
13.2
1
0
2500000
3000000
Standardized residual
12.8
12.7
12.6
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
-1
5000000
-2
x
Active
Model
Conf. interval (Mean 95%)
Conf. interval (Obs. 95%)
-3
0
12.7
12.8
12.9
13
13.1
-1
-2
13.2
13.3
13.4
0
12.7
-1
-2
-3
Cook's distances
0.12
0.1
Cook's distance
Pred(y) / Standardized re
y / Standardized residuals
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
Observations
-3
12.8
12.9
/ 36 rows and 1 column

Std. deviation
0.181
693333.573
r bound (95%)
r bound (95%)
Std. dev. on pred.

Lower
(Mean)
bound 95%
Upper
(Mean)
bound
Std.
95%
dev.
(Mean)
on pred.
Lower
(Observation)
bound 95%
Upper
(Observation)
Cook's D
0.019
12.862
12.940
0.071
12.756
13.046
0.010
0.025
12.747
12.849
0.073
12.649
12.946
0.023
0.019
0.025
0.023
0.019
0.015
0.014
0.017
0.016
0.019
0.018
0.014
0.012
0.017
0.015
0.017
0.018
0.019
0.017
0.012
0.014
0.013
0.013
0.015
0.011
0.012
0.012
0.012
0.015
0.011
0.013
0.012
0.015
0.015
0.016
12.869
12.760
12.797
12.868
12.946
12.972
12.904
12.926
12.868
12.886
13.209
13.148
13.267
13.234
13.271
13.285
13.301
13.268
13.169
13.206
13.190
13.189
13.228
13.121
13.167
13.148
13.152
13.235
13.098
13.194
13.145
13.237
13.233
13.251
12.946
12.859
12.889
12.945
13.009
13.030
12.974
12.992
12.945
12.959
13.265
13.196
13.335
13.295
13.339
13.357
13.377
13.336
13.219
13.262
13.243
13.242
13.287
13.168
13.217
13.197
13.201
13.296
13.145
13.248
13.193
13.298
13.294
13.315
Standardized residuals / x
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
0.071
0.073
0.072
0.071
0.070
0.070
0.071
0.070
0.071
0.071
0.070
0.070
0.071
0.070
0.071
0.071
0.071
0.071
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.069
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.070
0.070
12.763
12.662
12.696
12.762
12.835
12.858
12.795
12.816
12.762
12.779
13.095
13.030
13.158
13.122
13.162
13.178
13.195
13.159
13.053
13.092
13.075
13.074
13.115
13.003
13.050
13.031
13.035
13.123
12.980
13.079
13.027
13.125
13.121
13.140
13.052
12.958
12.990
13.051
13.120
13.143
13.082
13.102
13.051
13.067
13.379
13.313
13.445
13.407
13.449
13.465
13.483
13.446
13.336
13.376
13.358
13.358
13.400
13.285
13.333
13.314
13.318
13.408
13.263
13.363
13.310
13.410
13.406
13.426
0.000
0.003
0.011
0.002
0.002
0.011
0.001
0.031
0.000
0.004
0.071
0.015
0.021
0.005
0.032
0.064
0.045
0.001
0.005
0.015
0.019
0.029
0.057
0.031
0.088
0.017
0.000
0.003
0.018
0.012
0.103
0.000
0.000
0.016
Pred(y) / Standardized residuals
Pred(y) / y
13.4
13.3
13.2
13.1
12.9
13
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
13
12.9
12.8
12.7
12.7
Pred(y)
12.8
12.9
13
13.1
Pred(y)
13.2
564127.162
570854.344
610156.991
493524.235
539545.389
576,017
577,978
617,372
428,191
550,909
598,164
636,073
683,152
615,435
504691.393
556543.825
576407.675
488021.607
467494.456
529355.956
446527.547
464479.287
474614.002
57184.3824
20865.3824
82191.3824
-44107.6176
74022.3824
01-09
10-08
07-08
calculado
-106601.98
-145868.571
-103970.948
-141638.293
-129160.88
-104253.04
-74778.2089
-64616.9538
-91227.023
-82594.2112
-104422.631
-97868.5023
53186.8599
17991.6327
90602.5193
68873.81
92947.2682
102820.308
113641.163
91341.9141
29858.5011
51864.0345
42077.4724
41680.7289
65065.6624
3678.91301
04-08
01-08
10-07
real
-119456.618
-158135.618
-104186.618
-146507.618
-139396.618
-99093.6176
-82491.6176
-84523.6176
-96490.6176
-52706.6176
-101853.618
-89069.6176
-11993.6176
-15906.6176
58742.3824
52221.3824
54193.3824
51176.3824
71755.3824
85707.3824
49349.3824
84777.3824
80351.3824
90042.3824
127476.382
56479.3824
07-07
10-06
07-06
04-06
564,512
528,193
589,519
463,220
581,350
04-07
0.91105771 0.06851523
R2
CV
Consumo medido
Consumo calculado
387,871 400725.638
349,192 361459.046
403,141
403356.67
360,820 365689.325
367,931 378166.737
900,000 403074.577
408,234
424,836 432549.409
800,000 442710.664
422,804
410,837 416100.595
454,621
700,000 424733.406
405,474 402904.987
418,258
600,000 409459.115
495,334 560514.478
491,421
500,000 525319.25
566,070 597930.137
559,549
400,000 576201.428
561,521 600274.886
558,504 610147.926
300,000
579,083 620968.781
593,035 598669.532
200,000
556,677 537186.119
592,105 559191.652
100,000
587,679
549405.09
597,370 549008.347
634,8040 572393.28
563,807 511006.531
01-06
ene-06
feb-06
mar-06
abr-06
may-06
jun-06
jul-06
ago-06
sep-06
oct-06
nov-06
dic-06
ene-07
feb-07
mar-07
abr-07
may-07
jun-07
jul-07
ago-07
sep-07
oct-07
nov-07
dic-07
ene-08
feb-08
mar-08
abr-08
may-08
jun-08
jul-08
ago-08
sep-08
oct-08
nov-08
dic-08
ene-09
feb-09
mar-09
abr-09
may-09
jun-09
506617.606
01-07
507,328
Consumo medido
56799.544
63526.7261
102829.373
-13803.3831
32217.7714
68689.3824 -2636.22417
70650.3824 49216.2078
110044.382 69080.0569
jul-09
ago-09
sep-09
oct-09
nov-09
dic-09
ene-10
feb-10
mar-10
abr-10
may-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
sep-10
oct-10
nov-10
dic-10
ene-11
feb-11
mar-11
abr-11
may-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
sep-11
oct-11
nov-11
dic-11
ene-12
feb-12
mar-12
abr-12
may-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
sep-12
oct-12
nov-12
dic-12
ene-13
feb-13
mar-13
abr-13
689,229
656,134
640,912
599,758
626,557
574,389
511,283
447,276
514,830
464,038
488,165
541,969
589,351
548,615
506,786
548,621
496,147
540,960
554,008
498,527
517,378
503,475
489,190
491,874
476,505
478,587
486,506
477,961
458,318
426,331
476,731
327,184
297,557
415,315
384,554
450,893
443,401
485,169
437,262
386,556
425,458
453,234
538,803
469,707
505,995
543,473
519641.211
473069.299
459550.118
488576.337
501733.617
467402.101
436582.665
377422.867
429163.624
390758.503
423018.285
495478.237
523247.016
477081.886
417682.394
463379.367
419191.155
466594.77
506789.728
431011.803
459323.187
429948.661
425953.621
439937.954
428570.496
444766.59
428189.632
409733.652
403427.912
395398.743
440242.279
316376.599
296597.559
370258.575
391744.087
417084.531
457421.385
485329.3
440394.521
424420.521
437359.669
494671.275
408440.458
431118.261
482080.03
may-13
jun-13
jul-13
ago-13
sep-13
oct-13
nov-13
dic-13
597,918
677,742
669,384
616,318
670,953
631,298
580,546
650,569
599817.953
767469.606
679994.858
723623.645
703152.58
592398.221
765576.551
Standardized residuals / y
Observations
Obs35
Obs33
Obs31
Obs29
Obs27
Obs25
Obs23
Obs21
Obs19
Obs17
Obs15
Obs13
Obs11
Obs9
Obs7
Obs5
Obs3
Obs1
13.2
13.3
13.4
-3
-2
-1
Consumo
medido
-384.838399
42661.3438
20637.9911
30304.2346
-41804.611
-71325.6065
-21434.1746
-40964.3255
Consumo calculado
10-13
07-13
04-13
01-13
10-12
07-12
04-12
01-12
10-11
07-11
04-11
01-11
10-10
07-10
04-10
10-09
07-09
04-09
01-09
12854.6379
12267.0462
215.669672
4869.32502
10235.7373
-5159.42272
7713.40872
19906.6639
5263.59465
-29887.5935
-2569.01319
-8798.8847
65180.4776
33898.2503
31860.137
16652.4277
38753.8859
51643.9257
41885.7806
5634.53172
-19490.8812
-32913.3479
-38273.9099
-48361.6534
-62410.7199
-52800.4693
01-10
68128.9531
RMSE

Y / Quantitative: Workbook = Libro2 / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$H$4:$H$40 / 36 rows and 1 column
X / Quantitative: Workbook = Libro2 / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$G$4:$G$40 / 36 rows and 1 column
Tolerance: 0,0001
Summary statistics:
Variable
y
x
Observations
Obs. with missing
Obs. without
data
missing data
Minimum
36
0
36
12.763
36
0
36
1696.700
Maximum
13.361
2919.600
Correlation matrix:
Variables
x
y
y
1.000
0.913
0.913
1.000
Observations
Sum of weights
DF
R
Adjusted R
MSE
RMSE
MAPE
DW
Cp
AIC
SBC
PC
36.000
36.000
34.000
0.834
0.829
0.006
0.075
0.424
1.244
2.000
-184.652
-181.485
0.186
0.00570668
13.125
Source
DF
Model
1
0.958
0.958
Error
34
0.191
0.006
Corrected Total
35
1.148
F
170.714
Pr > F
< 0,0001
Mean
13.125
2508.764
Model parameters:
Source
Intercept
x
Value
Standard error
11.886
0.096
0.000
0.000
t
124.255
13.066

Upper bound (95%)
< 0,0001
11.692
12.080
< 0,0001
0.000
0.001

y = 11,8860522131626+4,93933227436688E-04*x
Source
x
Value
Standard error
0.913
0.070
t
13.066

Upper bound (95%)
< 0,0001
0.771
1.055
y
12.868
12.763
12.907
12.796
12.816
12.920
12.959
12.955
12.926
13.027
Pred(y)
12.901
12.724
12.916
12.830
12.883
12.948
13.011
13.017
12.965
12.992
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Variable

Observation
Obs1
Obs2
Obs3
Obs4
Obs5
Obs6
Obs7
Obs8
Obs9
Obs10
Weight
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
x
2055.700
1696.700
2085.000
1910.100
2017.500
2150.900
2278.500
2289.200
2185.200
2238.500
Residual
Std. residual
-0.033
-0.441
0.039
0.524
-0.009
-0.118
-0.033
-0.446
-0.067
-0.893
-0.029
-0.385
-0.052
-0.695
-0.062
-0.829
-0.039
-0.527
0.035
0.474
Obs11
Obs12
Obs13
Obs14
Obs15
Obs16
Obs17
Obs18
Obs19
Obs20
Obs21
Obs22
Obs23
Obs24
Obs25
Obs26
Obs27
Obs28
Obs29
Obs30
Obs31
Obs32
Obs33
Obs34
Obs35
Obs36
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2037.600
2081.900
2764.400
2533.500
2834.900
2726.900
2849.500
2835.300
2745.100
2651.900
2502.300
2831.600
2779.700
2856.800
2919.600
2634.800
2699.300
2747.300
2771.300
2906.100
2476.600
2657.100
2532.000
2521.900
2719.900
2790.900
12.913
12.944
13.113
13.105
13.246
13.235
13.238
13.233
13.269
13.293
13.230
13.291
13.284
13.300
13.361
13.242
13.036
13.244
13.177
13.287
13.046
13.273
13.344
13.264
13.267
13.333
12.892
12.914
13.251
13.137
13.286
13.233
13.294
13.287
13.242
13.196
13.122
13.285
13.259
13.297
13.328
13.187
13.219
13.243
13.255
13.321
13.109
13.198
13.137
13.132
13.230
13.265
0.020
0.029
-0.138
-0.032
-0.040
0.002
-0.055
-0.053
0.027
0.097
0.108
0.007
0.025
0.003
0.033
0.055
-0.183
0.001
-0.078
-0.034
-0.063
0.075
0.207
0.132
0.038
0.069
0.271
0.394
-1.849
-0.432
-0.532
0.026
-0.736
-0.714
0.364
1.296
1.438
0.090
0.332
0.042
0.440
0.734
-2.442
0.009
-1.037
-0.459
-0.846
0.996
2.763
1.765
0.505
0.917
13.5
13.4
13.3
13.2
13.1
13
12.9
12.8
12.7
12.6
12.5
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
0
1500
1900
-1
3100
-2
x
Active
Model
-3
3
1700
Pred(y) / Standardized residua

3
0
12.7
12.8
12.9
13
13.1
-1
-2
13.3
13.4
0
12.7
-1
-2
-3
Cook's distances
0.14
0.12
0.1
Cook's distance
13.2
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Observations
-3
12.8
12.9

0 / 36 rows and 1 column
Std. deviation
0.181
334.905
Upper bound (95%)
Upper bound (95%)
Std. dev. on pred.

Lower
(Mean)
bound 95%
Upper
(Mean)
bound
Std.
95%
dev.
(Mean)
on pred.
Lower
(Observation)
bound 95%
Upper
(Observation)
Cook's D
0.021
12.858
12.945
0.078
12.743
13.060
0.009
0.033
12.657
12.791
0.082
12.558
12.891
0.042
0.020
12.875
12.957
0.078
12.758
13.074
0.001
0.026
12.777
12.882
0.079
12.668
12.991
0.015
0.022
12.837
12.928
0.078
12.724
13.041
0.043
0.018
12.911
12.986
0.077
12.792
13.105
0.005
0.015
12.981
13.042
0.076
12.856
13.167
0.011
0.015
12.986
13.047
0.076
12.862
13.172
0.015
0.017
12.930
13.001
0.077
12.809
13.122
0.008
0.016
12.959
13.025
0.077
12.836
13.147
0.006
0.022
0.020
0.016
0.013
0.018
0.015
0.018
0.018
0.015
0.014
0.012
0.017
0.016
0.018
0.020
0.013
0.014
0.015
0.016
0.020
0.013
0.014
0.013
0.012
0.015
0.016
12.848
12.873
13.219
13.112
13.251
13.203
13.257
13.251
13.211
13.168
13.097
13.249
13.226
13.260
13.288
13.160
13.190
13.212
13.222
13.282
13.084
13.171
13.111
13.106
13.199
13.231
12.937
12.956
13.284
13.163
13.322
13.263
13.330
13.322
13.273
13.224
13.147
13.320
13.292
13.334
13.369
13.215
13.249
13.274
13.287
13.361
13.135
13.226
13.162
13.157
13.260
13.298
0.078
0.078
0.077
0.076
0.077
0.076
0.077
0.077
0.076
0.076
0.076
0.077
0.077
0.077
0.078
0.076
0.076
0.076
0.077
0.077
0.076
0.076
0.076
0.076
0.076
0.077
12.734
12.757
13.096
12.983
13.130
13.078
13.137
13.130
13.087
13.041
12.968
13.128
13.103
13.141
13.171
13.033
13.064
13.088
13.099
13.164
12.955
13.044
12.982
12.977
13.074
13.109
13.051
13.072
13.407
13.292
13.443
13.388
13.450
13.443
13.397
13.351
13.276
13.441
13.415
13.454
13.486
13.342
13.374
13.398
13.411
13.479
13.264
13.353
13.291
13.286
13.385
13.420
0.004
0.007
0.083
0.003
0.009
0.000
0.017
0.016
0.003
0.030
0.030
0.000
0.003
0.000
0.008
0.009
0.119
0.000
0.027
0.008
0.011
0.018
0.113
0.046
0.005
0.022
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
Pred(y) / y
13.4
13.3
13.2
13.1
12.9
13
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
13
12.9
12.8
12.7
12.7
Pred(y)
12.8
12.9
13
13.1
Pred(y)
507327.618
0.86190089 0.06197474
R2
CV
04-10
01-10
10-09
07-09
04-09
01-09
real
calculado
-119456.618 -106442.27
-158135.618 -171582.115
-104186.618 -100598.375
-146507.618 -134260.333
-139396.618 -113935.362
-99093.6176 -87141.4316
-82491.6176 -59806.4705
-84523.6176 -57435.0218
-96490.6176 -79962.0306
-52706.6176
-68561.52
-101853.618 -110010.289
-89069.6176 -101220.679
-11993.6176 61584.4866
-15906.6176
263.76848
58742.3824 81744.2783
52221.3824 51143.8066
54193.3824 86007.6803
51176.3824 81860.6747
71755.3824 56186.8664
Real 30833.7527
Calculado
85707.3824
49349.3824 -7498.61301
84777.3824 80784.8852
80351.3824 65900.1434
90042.3824 88150.9385
127476.382 106911.555
56479.3824 26307.4449
10-08
07-08
04-08
68689.3824 -2636.22417
70650.3824 49216.2078
110044.382 69080.0569
01-08
504691.393
556543.825
576407.675
488021.607
467494.456
529355.956
446527.547
464479.287
474614.002
519641.211
473069.299
459550.118
488576.337
10-07
576,017
577,978
617,372
428,191
550,909
598,164
636,073
683,152
615,435
689,229
656,134
640,912
599,758
07-07
57184.3824
56799.544
20865.3824 63526.7261
82191.3824 102829.373
-44107.6176 -13803.3831
74022.3824 32217.7714
04-07
564127.162
570854.344
610156.991
493524.235
539545.389
01-07
564,512
528,193
589,519
463,220
581,350
10-06
Calculado
400885.347
335745.503
406729.243
373067.285
393392.256
420186.186
447521.147
449892.596
427365.587
438766.098
397317.329
406106.939
568912.104
507591.386
589071.896
558471.424
593335.298
589188.292
563514.484
538161.37
499829.005
588112.503
573227.761
595478.556
614239.173
533635.063
07-06
387,871
349,192
403,141
360,820
367,931
408,234
424,836
422,804
410,837
454,621
405,474
418,258
495,334
491,421
566,070
559,549
561,521
558,504
579,083
593,035
556,677
592,105
587,679
597,370
634,804
563,807
04-06
ene-06
800,000
feb-06
mar-06
700,000
abr-06
may-06
600,000
jun-06
jul-06
500,000
ago-06
sep-06
400,000
oct-06
nov-06
300,000
dic-06
ene-07
200,000
feb-07
100,000
mar-07
abr-07
0
may-07
jun-07
jul-07
ago-07
sep-07
oct-07
nov-07
dic-07
ene-08
feb-08
mar-08
abr-08
may-08
jun-08
jul-08
ago-08
sep-08
oct-08
nov-08
dic-08
ene-09
feb-09
mar-09
abr-09
may-09
jun-09
jul-09
ago-09
sep-09
oct-09
01-06
900,000 Real
506635.142
nov-09
dic-09
ene-10
feb-10
mar-10
abr-10
may-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
sep-10
oct-10
nov-10
dic-10
ene-11
feb-11
mar-11
abr-11
may-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
sep-11
oct-11
nov-11
dic-11
ene-12
feb-12
mar-12
abr-12
may-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
sep-12
oct-12
nov-12
dic-12
ene-13
feb-13
mar-13
abr-13
may-13
jun-13
jul-13
ago-13
sep-13
oct-13
nov-13
dic-13
626,557
574,389
511,283
447,276
514,830
464,038
488,165
541,969
589,351
548,615
506,786
548,621
496,147
540,960
554,008
498,527
517,378
503,475
489,190
491,874
476,505
478,587
486,506
477,961
458,318
426,331
476,731
327,184
297,557
415,315
384,554
450,893
443,401
485,169
437,262
386,556
425,458
453,234
538,803
469,707
505,995
543,473
597,918
677,742
669,384
616,318
670,953
631,298
580,546
650,569
501733.617
467402.101
436582.665
377422.867
429163.624
390758.503
423018.285
495478.237
523247.016
477081.886
417682.394
463379.367
419191.155
466594.77
506789.728
431011.803
459323.187
429948.661
425953.621
439937.954
428570.496
444766.59
428189.632
409733.652
403427.912
395398.743
440242.279
316376.599
296597.559
370258.575
391744.087
417084.531
457421.385
485329.3
440394.521
424420.521
437359.669
494671.275
408440.458
431118.261
482080.03
599817.953
767469.606
679994.858
723623.645
703152.58
592398.221
765576.551
Obs35
Obs33
Observations
Obs35
Obs33
Obs31
Obs29
Obs27
Obs25
Obs23
Obs21
Obs19
Obs17
Obs15
Obs13
Obs11
Obs9
Obs7
Obs5
Obs3
Obs1
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
-3
-2
-1
-384.838399
42661.3438
20637.9911
30304.2346
-41804.611
-71325.6065
-21434.1746
-40964.3255
10-13
07-13
04-13
01-13
10-12
07-12
04-12
01-12
10-11
04-11
01-11
10-10
07-10
04-10
13014.3474
-13446.4971
3588.24297
12247.2849
25461.2558
11952.186
22685.1472
27088.5959
16528.5871
-15854.9024
-8156.67115
-12151.0614
73578.1042
16170.3861
23001.896
-1077.57572
31814.2979
30684.2923
-15568.516
Calculado-54873.6297
-56847.9954
-3992.49714
-14451.2389
-1891.44385
-20564.8269
-30171.9375
07-11
61625.3336
RMSE

Y / Quantitative: Workbook = carguio.xlsx / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$I$4:$I$40 / 36 rows and 1 column
X / Quantitative: Workbook = carguio.xlsx / Sheet = Hoja1 / Range = Hoja1!$H$4:$H$40 / 36 rows and 1 column
Tolerance: 0,0001
Summary statistics:
Variable
y
x

36
0
36 349192.000
36
0
36
1372.282
Maximum
634804.000
1792.400
Correlation matrix:
Variables
x
y
y
1.000
0.689
0.689
1.000
Observations
36.000
Sum of weights
36.000
DF
34.000
R
0.475
Adjusted R
0.460
MSE
4151234322.692
RMSE
64430.073
MAPE
10.527
DW
1.026
Cp
2.000
AIC
799.222
SBC
802.390
PC
0.587
0.126527858
509216.500
Source
Model
Error
DF
Sum of squares
Mean squares
1 127799695865.489 127799695865.489
34 141141966971.511
4151234322.692
F
30.786
Pr > F
< 0,0001
Corrected Total
35 268941662837.000
Model parameters:
Source
Intercept
x
Value
-386277.108
574.228
Standard error
161750.405
103.492
t
-2.388
5.549

0.023 -714993.481
< 0,0001
363.906
5.549

< 0,0001
0.437

y = -386277,107634306+574,227699986346*x
Source
Value
0.689
Standard error
0.124
1
0.9
0.8
x
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Variable

Observation
Obs1
Obs2
Weight
x
1
1
1463.053
1521.881
y
387871.000
349192.000
Pred(y)
Residual
453848.437 -65977.437
487629.290 -138437.290
Obs3
Obs4
Obs5
Obs6
Obs7
Obs8
Obs9
Obs10
Obs11
Obs12
Obs13
Obs14
Obs15
Obs16
Obs17
Obs18
Obs19
Obs20
Obs21
Obs22
Obs23
Obs24
Obs25
Obs26
Obs27
Obs28
Obs29
Obs30
Obs31
Obs32
Obs33
Obs34
Obs35
Obs36
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1455.441
1376.982
1372.282
1409.507
1458.346
1493.372
1447.424
1450.802
1487.030
1487.361
1588.741
1627.947
1643.261
1652.345
1640.507
1672.459
1753.830
1758.580
1685.071
1547.595
1550.287
1507.405
1533.918
1522.108
1558.526
1502.434
1495.682
1552.661
1581.905
1628.252
1623.811
1792.400
1655.854
1642.032
403141.000
360820.000
367931.000
408234.000
424836.000
422804.000
410837.000
454621.000
405474.000
418258.000
495334.000
491421.000
566070.000
559549.000
561521.000
558504.000
579083.000
593035.000
556677.000
592105.000
587679.000
597370.000
634804.000
563807.000
458838.000
564512.000
528193.000
589519.000
463220.000
581350.000
623817.000
576017.000
577978.000
617372.000
449477.297
404424.304
401724.963
423100.693
451145.723
471258.666
444873.867
446813.517
467616.617
467806.815
526022.062
548534.990
557328.754
562545.250
555747.515
574094.974
620820.924
623548.176
581337.300
502394.607
503940.884
479316.477
494540.902
487759.434
508671.431
476462.337
472584.818
505304.019
522096.348
548710.425
546160.272
642968.722
564560.064
556623.129
-46336.297
-43604.304
-33793.963
-14866.693
-26309.723
-48454.666
-34036.867
7807.483
-62142.617
-49548.815
-30688.062
-57113.990
8741.246
-2996.250
5773.485
-15590.974
-41737.924
-30513.176
-24660.300
89710.393
83738.116
118053.523
140263.098
76047.566
-49833.431
88049.663
55608.182
84214.981
-58876.348
32639.575
77656.728
-66951.722
13417.936
60748.871
Standardized res
800000
700000
2
500000
400000
300000
600000
1
0
1350
1400
1450
1500
300000
200000
1350
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
-1
1800
-2
x
Active
Model
-3
0
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
-1
-2
550000
600000
650000
0
400000
-1
-2
-3
Cook's distances
0.14
0.12
0.1
Cook's distance
Pred(y) / Standardiz
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Observations
-3
450000
ows and 1 column

rows and 1 column
Mean
Std. deviation
509216.500
87658.699
1559.475
105.232
Upper bound (95%)

-57560.735
784.549
Upper bound (95%)

0.942
Std. residual
Std. dev. on pred.
Lower
(Mean)
bound 95%
Upper
(Mean)
bound
Std.
95%
dev.
(Mean)
on pred.
Lower
(Observation)
bound 95%
Upper
(Observation)
-1.024
14659.150 424057.460 483639.414
66076.660 319564.507 588132.367
-2.149
11421.431 464418.150 510840.431
65434.574 354650.238 620608.343
-0.719
-0.677
-0.525
-0.231
-0.408
-0.752
-0.528
0.121
-0.964
-0.769
-0.476
-0.886
0.136
-0.047
0.090
-0.242
-0.648
-0.474
-0.383
1.392
1.300
1.832
2.177
1.180
-0.773
1.367
0.863
1.307
-0.914
0.507
1.205
-1.039
0.208
0.943
15206.386
21725.880
22150.104
18873.234
14994.984
12732.342
15804.688
15550.004
13096.733
13077.139
11157.327
12865.766
13802.241
14411.468
13625.004
15875.683
22801.261
23236.020
16860.192
10808.503
10780.358
12014.643
11059.290
11413.462
10738.795
12253.990
12605.534
10761.472
10986.381
12883.209
12635.084
26389.584
14656.145
13722.701
418574.202
360272.003
356710.535
384745.667
420672.250
445383.434
412754.876
415212.106
441000.854
441230.872
503347.644
522388.607
529279.226
533257.622
528058.174
541831.705
574483.187
576326.901
547073.267
480429.086
482032.561
454899.784
472065.721
464564.488
486847.574
451559.233
446967.291
483434.076
499769.335
522528.595
520482.692
589338.635
534775.194
528735.245
480380.391
448576.605
446739.390
461455.719
481619.196
497133.899
476992.857
478414.927
494232.379
494382.759
548696.479
574681.373
585378.281
591832.877
583436.855
606358.243
667158.662
670769.450
615601.332
524360.127
525849.207
503733.170
517016.083
510954.380
530495.288
501365.441
498202.345
527173.962
544423.361
574892.255
571837.853
696598.809
594344.934
584511.012
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
66200.215
67994.472
68131.207
67137.421
66151.975
65676.075
66340.203
66279.989
65747.690
65743.790
65388.992
65702.072
65891.852
66022.153
65854.955
66357.152
68345.679
68491.948
66599.552
65330.376
65325.726
65540.720
65372.335
65433.183
65318.880
65585.018
65651.609
65322.612
65360.041
65705.490
65657.290
69625.028
66075.993
65875.237
314942.273
266242.912
263265.691
286661.038
316708.734
337788.823
310054.354
312116.373
334001.235
334199.360
393135.642
415012.315
423420.399
428372.091
421914.145
439241.016
481925.794
484355.790
445990.725
369627.308
371183.037
346121.709
361688.333
354783.207
375927.496
343177.544
339164.695
372552.500
389268.765
415180.805
412728.606
501473.642
430277.489
422748.540
584012.321
542605.696
540184.235
559540.348
585582.712
604728.510
579693.379
581510.661
601231.998
601414.271
658908.482
682057.665
691237.108
696718.408
689580.885
708948.932
759716.055
762740.561
716683.874
635161.905
636698.731
612511.245
627393.472
620735.661
641415.365
609747.129
606004.941
638055.538
654923.932
682240.046
679591.939
784463.802
698842.639
690497.717
Pred(y) / y
650000
600000
550000
500000
500000
550000
600000
650000
450000
400000
350000
300000
300000
Pred(y)
350000
400000
450000
500000
Pred(y)
550000
Cook's D
0.030
0.077
0.016
0.033
0.021
0.003
0.005
0.012
0.010
0.000
0.021
0.013
0.004
0.017
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.034
0.019
0.006
0.029
0.025
0.063
0.074
0.023
0.009
0.036
0.015
0.025
0.013
0.006
0.030
0.131
0.001
0.022
Observations
Obs35
Obs33
Obs31
Obs29
Obs27
Obs25
Obs23
Obs21
Obs19
Obs17
Obs15
Obs13
Obs11
Obs9
Obs7
Obs5
Obs3
Obs1
550000
600000
650000
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
2.5

Tolerance: 0,0001
Summary statistics:
Variable
y
x

36
0
36 349192.000
36
0
36
1696.700
Maximum
634804.000
2919.600
Correlation matrix:
Variables
x
y
y
1.000
0.898
0.898
1.000
Observations
36.000
Sum of weights
36.000
DF
34.000
R
0.807
Adjusted R
0.801
MSE
1526965689.253
RMSE
39076.408
MAPE
5.710
DW
1.221
Cp
2.000
AIC
763.218
SBC
766.385
PC
0.216
0.0767383
509216.500
Source
Model
Error
DF
Sum of squares
Mean squares
1 217024829402.390 217024829402.390
34 51916833434.610
1526965689.253
F
142.128
Pr > F
< 0,0001
Corrected Total
35 268941662837.000
Model parameters:
Source
Intercept
x
Value
-80656.342
235.125
Standard error
49905.491
19.722
t
-1.616
11.922

0.115 -182076.501
< 0,0001
195.044
11.922

< 0,0001
0.745

y = -80656,3415263047+235,124893234793*x
Source
Value
0.898
Standard error
0.075
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Variable

Observation
Obs1
Obs2
Weight
x
1
1
2055.700
1696.700
y
387871.000
349192.000
Pred(y)
402689.901
318280.065
Residual
-14818.901
30911.935
Obs3
Obs4
Obs5
Obs6
Obs7
Obs8
Obs9
Obs10
Obs11
Obs12
Obs13
Obs14
Obs15
Obs16
Obs17
Obs18
Obs19
Obs20
Obs21
Obs22
Obs23
Obs24
Obs25
Obs26
Obs27
Obs28
Obs29
Obs30
Obs31
Obs32
Obs33
Obs34
Obs35
Obs36
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2085.000
1910.100
2017.500
2150.900
2278.500
2289.200
2185.200
2238.500
2037.600
2081.900
2764.400
2533.500
2834.900
2726.900
2849.500
2835.300
2745.100
2651.900
2502.300
2831.600
2779.700
2856.800
2919.600
2634.800
2699.300
2747.300
2771.300
2906.100
2476.600
2657.100
2532.000
2521.900
2719.900
2790.900
403141.000
360820.000
367931.000
408234.000
424836.000
422804.000
410837.000
454621.000
405474.000
418258.000
495334.000
491421.000
566070.000
559549.000
561521.000
558504.000
579083.000
593035.000
556677.000
592105.000
587679.000
597370.000
634804.000
563807.000
458838.000
564512.000
528193.000
589519.000
463220.000
581350.000
623817.000
576017.000
577978.000
617372.000
409579.061
368455.717
393708.131
425073.791
455075.728
457591.564
433138.575
445670.732
398434.141
408850.174
569322.913
515032.575
585899.218
560505.730
589332.042
585993.268
564785.003
542871.363
507696.679
585123.306
572920.324
591048.453
605814.297
538850.727
554016.283
565302.278
570945.275
602640.111
501653.969
544094.012
514679.888
512305.127
558859.856
575553.723
-6438.061
-7635.717
-25777.131
-16839.791
-30239.728
-34787.564
-22301.575
8950.268
7039.859
9407.826
-73988.913
-23611.575
-19829.218
-956.730
-27811.042
-27489.268
14297.997
50163.637
48980.321
6981.694
14758.676
6321.547
28989.703
24956.273
-95178.283
-790.278
-42752.275
-13121.111
-38433.969
37255.988
109137.112
63711.873
19118.144
41818.277
Standardized res
700000
650000
600000
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
550000
1
0
1500
1700
1900
300000
250000
200000
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
-1
3100
-2
x
Active
Model
-3
0
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
-1
-2
550000
600000
650000
0
300000
-1
-2
-3
Cook's distances
0.14
0.12
0.1
Cook's distance
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
Observations
-3
350000
400000
ows and 1 column

rows and 1 column
Mean
Std. deviation
509216.500
87658.699
2508.764
334.905
Upper bound (95%)

20763.818
275.206
Upper bound (95%)

1.051
Std. residual
Std. dev. on pred.
Lower
(Mean)
bound 95%
Upper
(Mean)
bound
Std.
95%
dev.
(Mean)
on pred.
Lower
(Observation)
bound 95%
Upper
(Observation)
-0.379
11057.059 380219.254 425160.549
40610.642 320159.147 485220.656
0.791
17289.352 283143.875 353416.255
42730.403 231441.437 405118.692
-0.165
-0.195
-0.660
-0.431
-0.774
-0.890
-0.571
0.229
0.180
0.241
-1.893
-0.604
-0.507
-0.024
-0.712
-0.703
0.366
1.284
1.253
0.179
0.378
0.162
0.742
0.639
-2.436
-0.020
-1.094
-0.336
-0.984
0.953
2.793
1.630
0.489
1.070
10595.541
13484.149
11674.332
9603.639
7939.743
7820.955
9118.030
8415.886
11347.487
10643.833
8236.194
6530.981
9153.606
7805.399
9358.187
9159.151
8008.844
7098.234
6513.982
9107.990
8424.290
9462.104
10395.608
6970.980
7519.103
8034.174
8320.193
10189.449
6543.555
7139.641
6528.838
6517.886
7730.164
8566.102
388046.332
341052.630
369983.034
405556.849
438940.229
441697.471
414608.509
428567.593
375373.273
387219.303
552584.953
501760.025
567296.852
544643.250
570313.918
567379.633
548509.073
528446.015
494458.674
566613.643
555800.108
571819.144
584687.879
524683.992
538735.626
548974.872
554036.608
581932.659
488355.866
529584.516
501411.693
499059.189
543150.272
558145.310
431111.790
395858.805
417433.227
444590.733
471211.227
473485.657
451668.641
462773.871
421495.009
430481.044
586060.873
528305.126
604501.584
576368.209
608350.165
604606.904
581060.933
557296.710
520934.684
603632.969
590040.541
610277.763
626940.715
553017.462
569296.939
581629.684
587853.942
623347.563
514952.072
558603.509
527948.083
525551.064
574569.439
592962.136
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
40487.420
41337.489
40783.032
40239.229
39874.869
39851.387
40126.103
39972.401
40690.676
40500.085
39934.954
39618.423
40134.202
39848.337
40181.356
40135.467
39888.686
39715.874
39615.624
40123.823
39974.171
40205.685
40435.558
39693.327
39793.248
39893.779
39952.363
40383.048
39620.497
39723.295
39618.069
39616.266
39833.668
40004.297
327298.724
284447.833
310827.037
343297.839
374040.243
376603.802
351592.522
364437.040
315740.737
326544.099
488165.322
434518.254
504336.706
479524.166
507673.702
504428.185
483721.440
462158.997
427188.045
503581.887
491683.035
509340.671
523639.356
458184.180
473146.673
484228.363
489752.305
520571.883
421135.431
463366.564
434166.284
431795.188
477908.102
494255.210
491859.398
452463.601
476589.224
506849.744
536111.212
538579.326
514684.628
526904.424
481127.545
491156.249
650480.505
595546.897
667461.731
641487.293
670990.381
667558.352
645848.566
623583.729
588205.313
666664.725
654157.614
672756.236
687989.238
619517.274
634885.893
646376.192
652138.245
684708.338
582172.507
624821.460
595193.492
592815.066
639811.609
656852.236
Pred(y) / y
650000
600000
550000
500000
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
650000
450000
400000
350000
300000
300000
Pred(y)
350000
400000
450000
500000
Pred(y)
550000
Cook's D
0.007
0.095
0.001
0.003
0.023
0.006
0.013
0.017
0.010
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.087
0.005
0.008
0.000
0.016
0.015
0.003
0.029
0.023
0.001
0.004
0.001
0.023
0.007
0.118
0.000
0.030
0.004
0.014
0.016
0.115
0.039
0.005
0.030
Observations
Obs35
Obs33
Obs31
Obs29
Obs27
Obs25
Obs23
Obs21
Obs19
Obs17
Obs15
Obs13
Obs11
Obs9
Obs7
Obs5
Obs3
Obs1
550000
600000
650000
-3
-2
-1

Tolerance: 0,0001
Summary statistics:
Variable
y
x

Maximum
36
0
36 349192.000 634804.000
36
0
36 2582176.000 4814440.000
Correlation matrix:
Variables
x
y
y
1.000
0.914
0.914
1.000
Observations
36.000
Sum of weights
36.000
DF
34.000
R
0.836
Adjusted R
0.831
MSE
1297482310.610
RMSE
36020.582
MAPE
4.938
DW
1.497
Cp
2.000
AIC
757.355
SBC
760.522
PC
0.183
0.070737264
509216.500
Source
Model
Error
DF
Sum of squares
Mean squares
1 224827264276.253 224827264276.253
34 44114398560.747
1297482310.610
F
173.280
Pr > F
< 0,0001
Corrected Total
35 268941662837.000
Model parameters:
Source
Intercept
x
Value
54642.622
0.116
Standard error
35050.670
0.009
t
1.559
13.164

0.128 -16588.910
< 0,0001
0.098
13.164

< 0,0001
0.773

y = 54642,6224649823+0,11559744510883*x
Source
Value
0.914
Standard error
0.069
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Variable

Observation
Obs1
Obs2
Weight
1
1
x
3007598.000
2582176.000
y
387871.000
349192.000
Pred(y)
402313.267
353135.571
Residual
-14442.267
-3943.571
Obs3
Obs4
Obs5
Obs6
Obs7
Obs8
Obs9
Obs10
Obs11
Obs12
Obs13
Obs14
Obs15
Obs16
Obs17
Obs18
Obs19
Obs20
Obs21
Obs22
Obs23
Obs24
Obs25
Obs26
Obs27
Obs28
Obs29
Obs30
Obs31
Obs32
Obs33
Obs34
Obs35
Obs36
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3034594.000
2630174.000
2768578.000
3031708.000
3322842.000
3418628.000
3162911.000
3247620.000
3029972.000
3096537.000
4391916.000
4124403.000
4658480.000
4505780.000
4674625.000
4741922.000
4814440.000
4663578.000
4216553.000
4382169.000
4309334.000
4306354.000
4478426.000
4010450.000
4206928.000
4127638.000
4144983.000
4512189.000
3917745.000
4326429.000
4111490.000
4520254.000
4503757.000
4582747.000
403141.000
360820.000
367931.000
408234.000
424836.000
422804.000
410837.000
454621.000
405474.000
418258.000
495334.000
491421.000
566070.000
559549.000
561521.000
558504.000
579083.000
593035.000
556677.000
592105.000
587679.000
597370.000
634804.000
563807.000
458838.000
564512.000
528193.000
589519.000
463220.000
581350.000
623817.000
576017.000
577978.000
617372.000
405433.936
358684.017
374683.166
405100.322
438754.668
449827.285
420267.053
430059.197
404899.644
412594.388
562336.891
531413.072
593151.009
575499.279
595017.329
602796.691
611179.586
593740.324
542065.376
561210.163
552790.623
552446.143
572337.226
518240.396
540952.751
531787.030
533792.067
576240.143
507523.935
554766.761
529920.362
577172.436
575265.425
584396.467
-2292.936
2135.983
-6752.166
3133.678
-13918.668
-27023.285
-9430.053
24561.803
574.356
5663.612
-67002.891
-39992.072
-27081.009
-15950.279
-33496.329
-44292.691
-32096.586
-705.324
14611.624
30894.837
34888.377
44923.857
62466.774
45566.604
-82114.751
32724.970
-5599.067
13278.857
-44303.935
26583.239
93896.638
-1155.436
2712.575
32975.533
Standardized res
700000
650000
600000
500000
450000
400000
350000
550000
1
0
2500000
3000000
350000
300000
250000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
-1
5000000
-2
x
Active
Model
-3
0
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
-1
-2
550000
600000
650000
0
350000
-1
-2
-3
Cook's distances
0.12
0.1
Cook's distance
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
Observations
-3
400000
450000
ows and 1 column

rows and 1 column
Mean
Std. deviation
509216.500
87658.699
3932386.889 693333.573
Upper bound (95%)

125874.155
0.133
Upper bound (95%)

1.055
Std. residual
Std. dev. on pred.
Lower
(Mean)
bound 95%
Upper
(Mean)
bound
Std.
95%
dev.
(Mean)
on pred.
Lower
(Observation)
bound 95%
Upper
(Observation)
-0.401
10099.214 381789.196 422837.338
37409.577 326287.860 478338.674
-0.109
13290.238 326126.557 380144.585
38394.176 275109.218 431161.924
-0.064
0.059
-0.187
0.087
-0.386
-0.750
-0.262
0.682
0.016
0.157
-1.860
-1.110
-0.752
-0.443
-0.930
-1.230
-0.891
-0.020
0.406
0.858
0.969
1.247
1.734
1.265
-2.280
0.909
-0.155
0.369
-1.230
0.738
2.607
-0.032
0.075
0.915
9909.580
12915.596
11852.936
9929.756
8043.229
7509.728
9038.888
8497.157
9941.903
9482.533
7233.650
6235.743
8757.740
7835.535
8861.499
9304.807
9799.969
8790.388
6501.414
7186.251
6855.555
6842.957
7683.373
6042.443
6469.442
6243.484
6287.021
7871.821
6004.807
6929.288
6206.039
7917.815
7824.130
8286.081
385295.246
332436.368
350595.101
384920.630
422408.860
434565.682
401897.823
412790.897
384695.267
393323.562
547636.345
518740.518
575353.139
559575.556
577008.597
583887.047
591263.652
575876.106
528852.913
546605.943
538858.459
538539.580
556722.734
505960.675
527805.262
519098.743
521015.304
560242.678
495320.699
540684.753
517308.173
561081.500
559364.879
567557.126
425572.626
384931.666
398771.230
425280.013
455100.476
465088.888
438636.284
447327.498
425104.022
431865.215
577037.437
544085.626
610948.878
591423.001
613026.061
621706.334
631095.520
611604.543
555277.840
575814.382
566722.787
566352.705
587951.718
530520.117
554100.240
544475.317
546568.831
592237.607
519727.171
568848.769
542532.551
593263.372
591165.971
601235.809
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
37358.829
38266.107
37920.633
37364.185
36907.666
36795.086
37137.364
37009.242
37367.416
37247.829
36739.733
36556.351
37069.938
36862.961
37094.588
37202.980
37329.904
37077.665
36602.605
36730.430
36667.164
36664.811
36830.918
36523.875
36596.940
36557.672
36565.133
36870.691
36517.667
36681.022
36551.296
36880.538
36860.539
36961.351
329511.661
280917.932
297619.168
329167.161
363749.266
375050.674
344794.849
354847.368
328959.919
336897.693
487672.770
457121.628
517815.830
500584.728
519632.056
527191.138
535316.094
518389.443
467679.933
486564.947
478273.980
477934.281
497487.795
444014.952
466578.821
457492.901
459482.777
501309.883
433311.106
480221.957
455639.192
502222.165
500355.797
509281.965
481356.211
436450.103
451747.164
481033.482
513760.071
524603.896
495739.257
505271.026
480839.370
488291.084
637001.013
605704.515
668486.187
650413.829
670402.602
678402.243
687043.078
669091.205
616450.820
635855.378
627307.266
626958.004
647186.657
592465.840
615326.681
606081.159
608101.358
651170.403
581736.764
629311.566
604201.532
652122.708
650175.053
659510.969
Pred(y) / y
650000
600000
550000
500000
450000
500000
550000
600000
650000
450000
400000
350000
300000
300000
Pred(y)
350000
400000
450000
500000
Pred(y)
550000
Cook's D
0.007
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.000
0.004
0.013
0.002
0.015
0.000
0.001
0.076
0.020
0.019
0.005
0.030
0.058
0.034
0.000
0.003
0.016
0.018
0.030
0.075
0.024
0.090
0.013
0.000
0.004
0.022
0.011
0.107
0.000
0.000
0.025
Observations
Obs35
Obs33
Obs31
Obs29
Obs27
Obs25
Obs23
Obs21
Obs19
Obs17
Obs15
Obs13
Obs11
Obs9
Obs7
Obs5
Obs3
Obs1
550000
600000
650000
-3
-2
-1

Modelo 1

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x

VALORES ESTADISTICOS RECOMENDADOS

XLSTAT 2013.6.01 - Linear regression - on 30/01/2014 at 10:52:02

Regression of variable m3 ln:

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Equation of the model:

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Predictions and residuals:

Pred(m3 ln) / Standardized

36 rows and 1 column

Lower bound 95%

Pred(m3 ln) / Standardized residuals

XLSTAT 2013.6.01 - Linear regression - on 30/01/2014 at 9:50:38

Regression of variable m3 ln:

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Equation of the model:

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Predictions and residuals:

Pred(m3 ln) / Standardized

36 rows and 1 column

Lower bound 95%

Pred(m3 ln) / Standardized residuals

XLSTAT 2013.6.01 - Linear regression - on 30/01/2014 at 9:47:55

Observations Obs. with missing data

Regression of variable m3:

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Equation of the model:

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Predictions and residuals:

rows and 1 column

Upper bound (95%)

Upper bound (95%)

Std. dev. on pred.

Pred(m3) / Standardized residuals

XLSTAT 2013.6.01 - Linear regression - on 30/01/2014 at 9:38:55

Sum of squaresMean squares

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Equation of the model:

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Predictions and residuals:

Conf. interval (Mean 95%)

Conf. interval (Obs. 95%)

/ 36 rows and 1 column

Std. dev. on pred.

Pred(y) / Standardized residuals

XLSTAT 2013.6.01 - Linear regression - on 29/01/2014 at 18:04:45

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Equation of the model:

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Predictions and residuals:

Conf. interval (Mean 95%)

Conf. interval (Obs. 95%)

Pred(y) / Standardized residua

/ 36 rows and 1 column

Upper bound (95%)

Upper bound (95%)

Std. dev. on pred.

Pred(y) / Standardized residuals

XLSTAT 2013.6.01 - Linear regression - on 03/02/2014 at 16:01:43

Observations Obs. with missing data

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Pr > |t| Lower bound (95%)

Equation of the model: