Está en la página 1de 3

Parametros

Beta de la accion
Premio de Mercado (rM - rf)
Tasa libre de riesgo (rf)
Costo del capital
Tasa de Reinversion
ROE
Crecimiento
a largo plazo

0.95
8%
4%
11%
70%
11%
8%

Perodo Dividendo CrecimientoPerpetuidad


del dividendo
Flujos de efectivo
2009
0.50
0.50
2010
0.67
33.3%
0.67
2011
0.83
25.0%
0.83
2012
1.00
20.0%
1.00
2013
1.26
26.0%
1.26
2014
1.56
24.2%
1.56
2015
1.91
22.3%
1.91
2016
2.31
20.5%
2.31
2017
2.74
18.7%
2.74
2018
3.20
16.8%
3.20
2019
3.68
15.0%
3.68
2020
4.16
13.2%
4.16
2021
4.64
11.4%
4.64
2022
5.08
9.5%
5.08
2023
5.47
7.7%
5.47
2024
5.89
7.7%
186.57
192.46
49.44

Copyright 2011 McGraw-Hill/Irwin

jos de efectivo
2009-2012 Extrapolacion lineal de la prediccion de analistas para 2009 y 2012

2013, tasa promedio (geometrico) de la prediccin de analistas


De 2014-2012, perodo intermedio de crecimiento (cae linealmente de la tasas de crecimiento de 26% a 7.7%)

Crecimiento a largo plazo

=Valor presente de los flujos de efectivo

Copyright 2011 McGraw-Hill/Irwin

A. Value Line data


P/E
Cap spending/shr
LT Debt
Shares
EPS
Working Capital
B. Cash flow calculations
Profits (after tax)
Interest (after tax)
Chg Working Cap
Depreciation
Cap Spending

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

30.00
2.50
27500
1810
1.00
12780

26.25
2.35
25000
1810
1.75
17100

22.50
2.55
24000
1803
2.28
18413

18.75
2.75
23000
1797
2.82
19727

15.00
2.95
22000
1790
3.35
21040

1815.0
761.1

3175.0
691.9
4320.0
6000.0
4253.5

4120.0
664.2
1313.3
6000.0
4598.5

5065.0
636.5
1313.3
6000.0
4940.8

1293.4
-1898.5

4872.4
3208.2

5447.4
3810.8

6010.0
608.9
1313.3
6000.0
5280.5
5280.5 Terminal value
6025.0 108545.5
4416.2 86545.5

0.30
0.917
0.108
0.084
0.922
0.902

0.27
0.886
0.106
0.085
0.850
0.816

0.23
0.859
0.104
0.086
0.783
0.739

90150
0.20
0.834
0.102
0.087
0.720
0.671

0.102
0.087
0.720
0.671

1193
-1713

4142
2617

4264
2817

4338
2963

78145
58070

FCFF
FCFE
C. Discount rate calculations
Current beta
0.95
Unlevered beta
0.725
terminal growth
0.03
tax_rate
0.385
r_debt
0.045
risk-free rate
0.035
market risk prem
0.08
MV equity
Debt/Value
Levered beta
k_equity
WACC
PV factor for FCFF
PV factor for FCFE
D. Present values
PV(FCFF)
PV(FCFE)

54450
0.34
0.950
0.111
0.083
1.000
1.000

Intrinsic val Equity val Intrin/share

92081
64754

64581
64754

Answers

a.
b.
c.

Intrinsi Intrinsic
c value: value per
share:
FCFF
FCFF
91,624 35.43
66,836 21.73
81,988 30.10

Intrinsic Intrinsic
value: value per
share:
FCFE
FCFE
65,798
36.35
45,509
25.14
57,347
31.68

Copyright 2011 McGraw-Hill/Irwin

35.68
35.78