06 - Estudio Hidrológico

INFORMACION METEOROLOGICA
ESTACION : SAN MIGUEL.
Dpto: Cajamarca
Prov: San Miguel
Dist: San Miguel
CUADRO N 4.14
DATOS GENERALES
Precip. Mx. en 24 horas

AO
MAXIMA
1977
41.3
1978
32.0
1979
44.2
1980
32.9
1981
52.4
1982
49.1
1983
49.0
1984
40.8
1985
32.1
1986
43.8
1987
32.8
1988
33.4
1989
36.0
1990
34.9
1991
38.8
1992
31.5
1993
38.9
1994
41.7
1995
37.8
1996
36.0
1997
33.0
1998
68.5
1999
39.2
2000
82.2
2001
48.4
2002
48.0
2003
30.0
2004
35.2
2005
25.3
LATITUD: 06 59' 51" sur

LONGITUD: 78 51' 11" oeste
ALTITUD: 2560 m.s.n.m.
CUADRO N 4.15
LLUVIAS MAXIMAS (mm): ESTACION SAN MIGUEL
AO
P.Mx.24h.
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
41.3
32.0
44.2
32.9
52.4
49.1
49.0
40.8
32.1
43.8
32.8
33.4
36.0
34.9
38.8
31.5
38.9
41.7
37.8
36.0
33.0
68.5
39.2
82.2
48.4
48.0
30.0
35.2
25.3
DURACION EN MINUTOS
5
10.01
7.77
10.74
7.99
12.72
11.92
11.88
9.91
7.79
10.63
7.96
8.11
8.75
8.46
9.42
7.65
9.44
10.12
9.19
8.74
8.01
16.63
9.52
19.95
11.75
11.65
7.28
8.54
6.14
10
11.91
9.24
12.77
9.50
15.13
14.18
14.13
11.79
9.27
12.64
9.47
9.65
10.40
10.06
11.21
9.10
11.23
12.04
10.92
10.40
9.53
19.77
11.32
23.73
13.97
13.86
8.66
10.16
7.30
15
13.18
10.23
14.13
10.51
16.74
15.69
15.64
13.05
10.26
13.99
10.48
10.68
11.51
11.14
12.40
10.07
12.43
13.33
12.09
11.50
10.54
21.88
12.52
26.26
15.46
15.33
9.58
11.25
8.08
30
15.67
12.16
16.81
12.50
19.91
18.66
18.60
15.52
12.20
16.64
12.47
12.70
13.69
13.24
14.75
11.98
14.78
15.85
14.38
13.68
12.54
26.02
14.89
31.23
18.39
18.24
11.40
13.37
9.61
60
18.64
14.47
19.99
14.86
23.67
22.19
22.12
18.45
14.51
19.79
14.82
15.10
16.28
15.75
17.54
14.25
17.58
18.84
17.10
16.27
14.91
30.95
17.71
37.14
21.87
21.69
13.55
15.90
11.43
120
22.16
17.20
23.77
17.68
28.15
26.39
26.31
21.94
17.25
23.53
17.63
17.96
19.36
18.73
20.86
16.94
20.90
22.41
20.33
19.35
17.73
36.80
21.06
44.16
26.00
25.79
16.12
18.91
13.59
60
18.64
14.47
19.99
14.86
23.67
22.19
22.12
18.45
14.51
19.79
14.82
15.10
16.28
15.75
17.54
14.25
17.58
18.84
17.10
16.27
14.91
30.95
17.71
37.14
21.87
21.69
13.55
15.90
11.43
120
11.08
8.60
11.88
8.84
14.08
13.19
13.15
10.97
8.63
11.77
8.81
8.98
9.68
9.36
10.43
8.47
10.45
11.21
10.17
9.67
8.87
18.40
10.53
22.08
13.00
12.89
8.06
9.46
6.80
CUADRO N 4.16
INTENSIDADES MAXIMAS (mm/h): ESTACION SAN MIGUEL
AO
P.Mx.24h.
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
41.3
32.0
44.2
32.9
52.4
49.1
49.0
40.8
32.1
43.8
32.8
33.4
36.0
34.9
38.8
31.5
38.9
41.7
37.8
36.0
33.0
68.5
39.2
82.2
48.4
48.0
30.0
35.2
25.3
5
120.16
93.27
128.87
95.84
152.64
143.06
142.62
118.96
93.53
127.59
95.57
97.35
104.95
101.55
113.08
91.85
113.31
121.50
110.23
104.90
96.13
199.54
114.19
239.44
140.99
139.82
87.39
102.54
73.70
10
71.45
55.46
76.63
56.98
90.76
85.06
84.80
70.74
55.62
75.86
56.83
57.89
62.41
60.38
67.24
54.61
67.38
72.24
65.54
62.37
57.16
118.65
67.90
142.37
83.83
83.14
51.96
60.97
43.82
DURACION EN MINUTOS
15
30
52.71
31.34
40.92
24.33
56.53
33.62
42.04
25.00
66.96
39.82
62.76
37.32
62.57
37.20
52.19
31.03
41.03
24.40
55.97
33.28
41.93
24.93
42.71
25.39
46.04
27.38
44.55
26.49
49.61
29.50
40.29
23.96
49.71
29.56
53.30
31.69
48.36
28.75
46.02
27.36
42.17
25.07
87.54
52.05
50.09
29.79
105.04
62.46
61.85
36.78
61.34
36.47
38.34
22.80
44.98
26.75
32.33
19.22
CUADRO N 4.17
INTENSIDADES ORDENADAS EN FORMA DECRECIENTE
Estacin San Miguel
5 min
10 min
30 min
60 min
120 min
239.44
142.37
62.46
37.14
22.08
199.54
118.65
52.05
30.95
18.40
152.64
90.76
39.82
23.67
14.08
143.06
85.06
37.32
22.19
13.19
142.62
84.80
37.20
22.12
13.15
140.99
83.83
36.78
21.87
13.00
139.82
83.14
36.47
21.69
12.89
128.87
76.63
33.62
19.99
11.88
127.59
75.86
33.28
19.79
11.77
121.50
72.24
31.69
18.84
11.21
120.16
71.45
31.34
18.64
11.08
118.96
70.74
31.03
18.45
10.97
114.19
67.90
29.79
17.71
10.53
113.31
67.38
29.56
17.58
10.45
113.08
67.24
29.50
17.54
10.43
110.23
65.54
28.75
17.10
10.17
104.95
62.41
27.38
16.28
9.68
104.90
62.37
27.36
16.27
9.67
102.54
60.97
26.75
15.90
9.46
101.55
60.38
26.49
15.75
9.36
97.35
57.89
25.39
15.10
8.98
96.13
57.16
25.07
14.91
8.87
95.84
56.98
25.00
14.86
8.84
95.57
56.83
24.93
14.82
8.81
93.53
55.62
24.40
14.51
8.63
93.27
55.46
24.33
14.47
8.60
91.85
54.61
23.96
14.25
8.47
87.39
51.96
22.80
13.55
8.06
73.70
43.82
19.22
11.43
6.80
PRUEBA DE BONDAD DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

INTENSIDAD MAXIMA (mm/h) PARA 05 MINUTOS
ORDEN
m
INTENCIDADES
ORDENADAS
PROB.EMPIRICA
P(x>X)=(m-0.3)/(n+0.4)
P(x<X)=1-P(x>X)
PROB.TEORICA
F(x<X)
DIFERENCIA (Dp)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
239.44
199.54
152.64
143.06
142.62
140.99
139.82
128.87
127.59
121.50
120.16
118.96
114.19
113.31
113.08
110.23
104.95
104.90
102.54
101.55
97.35
96.13
95.84
95.57
93.53
93.27
91.85
87.39
73.70
0.0238
0.0578
0.0918
0.1259
0.1599
0.1939
0.2279
0.2619
0.2959
0.3299
0.3639
0.3980
0.4320
0.4660
0.5000
0.5340
0.5680
0.6020
0.6361
0.6701
0.7041
0.7381
0.7721
0.8061
0.8401
0.8741
0.9082
0.9422
0.9762
0.98
0.94
0.91
0.87
0.84
0.81
0.77
0.74
0.70
0.67
0.64
0.60
0.57
0.53
0.50
0.47
0.43
0.40
0.36
0.33
0.30
0.26
0.23
0.19
0.16
0.13
0.09
0.06
0.02
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.18956
0.15372
0.04366
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.098
0.096
0.020
Media
Desv.Stand.
datos: n =
119.467
34.156
29
[P(x<X)-F(x<X)]
a = 0.038
b = 104.095
Dp mx. = 0.098
Si : Dp Tab. > Dp mx
entonces los datos si se
ajustan al modelo Gumbel
Dp Tab. = 0.25
Por lo Tanto : Si se Ajusta a Gumbel
SIMULACIN DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

Vida Util N
( aos )
10
15
20
25
30
Incertidumbre
J(%)
Tr
( aos )
Imx ( =Xmx)
5 min (mm/h)
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
97.98
31.27
22.91
17.89
14.52
7.73
195.46
62.03
45.32
35.26
28.54
14.93
292.94
92.80
67.72
52.64
42.56
22.14
390.41
123.56
90.13
70.02
56.57
29.36
487.89
154.33
112.54
87.40
70.59
36.57
585.37
185.09
134.94
104.78
84.61
43.78
226.06
195.34
186.90
180.14
174.41
156.72
244.51
213.80
205.36
198.59
192.87
175.18
255.31
224.60
216.16
209.39
203.67
185.97
262.97
232.26
223.82
217.05
211.33
193.64
268.92
238.20
229.76
223.00
217.27
199.58
273.77
243.06
234.62
227.85
222.13
204.43

ORDEN
m
INTENCIDADES
ORDENADAS
PROB.EMPIRICA
P(x>X)=(m-0.3)/(n+0.4)
P(x<X)=1-P(x>X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
142.37
118.65
90.76
85.06
84.80
83.83
83.14
76.63
75.86
72.24
71.45
70.74
67.90
67.38
67.24
65.54
62.41
62.37
60.97
60.38
57.89
57.16
56.98
56.83
55.62
55.46
54.61
51.96
43.82
0.0238
0.0578
0.0918
0.1259
0.1599
0.1939
0.2279
0.2619
0.2959
0.3299
0.3639
0.3980
0.4320
0.4660
0.5000
0.5340
0.5680
0.6020
0.6361
0.6701
0.7041
0.7381
0.7721
0.8061
0.8401
0.8741
0.9082
0.9422
0.9762
0.98
0.94
0.91
0.87
0.84
0.81
0.77
0.74
0.70
0.67
0.64
0.60
0.57
0.53
0.50
0.47
0.43
0.40
0.36
0.33
0.30
0.26
0.23
0.19
0.16
0.13
0.09
0.06
0.02
Media
Desv.Stand
datos: n =
PROB.TEORICA
F(x<X)
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.19982
0.15372
0.04366
71.036
20.310
29
Dp Tab. = 0.25
Vida Util N
( aos )
10
15
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.108
0.096
0.020
a = 0.063
b = 61.895
Dp mx. = 0.108
Si : D Tab. > D mx
DIFERENCIA
[P(x<X)-F(x<X)]
Incertidumbre
J(%)
Tr
( aos )
Imx ( =Xmx)
10 min (mm/h)
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
97.98
31.27
22.91
17.89
14.52
7.73
195.46
62.03
45.32
35.26
28.54
14.93
292.94
92.80
67.72
52.64
134.41
116.15
111.13
107.11
103.71
93.18
145.39
127.13
122.11
118.09
114.68
104.16
151.81
133.55
128.53
124.51
20
25
30
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
42.56
22.14
390.41
123.56
90.13
70.02
56.57
29.36
487.89
154.33
112.54
87.40
70.59
36.57
585.37
185.09
134.94
104.78
84.61
43.78
121.10
110.58
156.37
138.10
133.08
129.06
125.66
115.14
159.90
141.64
136.62
132.59
129.19
118.67
162.79
144.52
139.50
135.48
132.08
121.56
Si se Ajusta a Gumbel

ORDEN
m
INTENCIDADES
ORDENADAS
PROB.EMPIRICA
P(x>X)=(m-0.3)/(n+0.4)
P(x<X)=1-P(x>X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
62.46
52.05
39.82
37.32
37.20
36.78
36.47
33.62
33.28
31.69
31.34
31.03
29.79
29.56
29.50
28.75
27.38
27.36
26.75
26.49
25.39
25.07
25.00
24.93
24.40
24.33
23.96
22.80
19.22
0.0238
0.0578
0.0918
0.1259
0.1599
0.1939
0.2279
0.2619
0.2959
0.3299
0.3639
0.3980
0.4320
0.4660
0.5000
0.5340
0.5680
0.6020
0.6361
0.6701
0.7041
0.7381
0.7721
0.8061
0.8401
0.8741
0.9082
0.9422
0.9762
0.98
0.94
0.91
0.87
0.84
0.81
0.77
0.74
0.70
0.67
0.64
0.60
0.57
0.53
0.50
0.47
0.43
0.40
0.36
0.33
0.30
0.26
0.23
0.19
0.16
0.13
0.09
0.06
0.02
Media
Desv.Stand
datos: n =
PROB.TEORICA
F(x<X)
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.20514
0.15372
0.04366
31.163
8.910
29
Dp Tab. = 0.25
10
15
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.113
0.096
0.020
a = 0.144
b = 27.153
Dp mx. = 0.113
Si : D Tab. > D mx
Vida Util N
( aos )
DIFERENCIA
[P(x<X)-F(x<X)]
Incertidumbre
J(%)
Tr
( aos )
Imx ( =Xmx)
30 min (mm/h)
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
97.98
31.27
22.91
17.89
14.52
7.73
195.46
62.03
45.32
35.26
28.54
14.93
292.94
92.80
67.72
52.64
42.56
58.97
50.95
48.75
46.99
45.49
40.88
63.78
55.77
53.57
51.80
50.31
45.69
66.60
58.59
56.38
54.62
53.13
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
22.14
390.41
123.56
90.13
70.02
56.57
29.36
487.89
154.33
112.54
87.40
70.59
36.57
585.37
185.09
134.94
104.78
84.61
43.78
48.51
68.60
60.58
58.38
56.62
55.12
50.51
70.15
62.14
59.93
58.17
56.67
52.06
71.41
63.40
61.20
59.43
57.94
53.33

ORDEN
m
INTENCIDADES
ORDENADAS
PROB.EMPIRICA
P(x>X)=(m-0.3)/(n+0.4)
P(x<X)=1-P(x>X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
37.14
30.95
23.67
22.19
22.12
21.87
21.69
19.99
19.79
18.84
18.64
18.45
17.71
17.58
17.54
17.10
16.28
16.27
15.90
15.75
15.10
14.91
14.86
14.82
14.51
14.47
14.25
13.55
11.43
0.0238
0.0578
0.0918
0.1259
0.1599
0.1939
0.2279
0.2619
0.2959
0.3299
0.3639
0.3980
0.4320
0.4660
0.5000
0.5340
0.5680
0.6020
0.6361
0.6701
0.7041
0.7381
0.7721
0.8061
0.8401
0.8741
0.9082
0.9422
0.9762
0.98
0.94
0.91
0.87
0.84
0.81
0.77
0.74
0.70
0.67
0.64
0.60
0.57
0.53
0.50
0.47
0.43
0.40
0.36
0.33
0.30
0.26
0.23
0.19
0.16
0.13
0.09
0.06
0.02
Media
Desv.Stand
datos: n =
PROB.TEORICA
F(x<X)
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.20085
0.15372
0.04366
18.529
5.298
29
Dp Tab. = 0.25
10
15
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.109
0.096
0.020
a = 0.242
b = 16.145
Dp mx. = 0.109
Si : D Tab. > D mx
Vida Util N
( aos )
DIFERENCIA
[P(x<X)-F(x<X)]
Incertidumbre
J(%)
Tr
( aos )
Imx ( =Xmx)
60 min (mm/h)
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
97.98
31.27
22.91
17.89
14.52
7.73
195.46
62.03
45.32
35.26
28.54
14.93
292.94
92.80
67.72
52.64
42.56
35.06
30.30
28.99
27.94
27.05
24.31
37.92
33.16
31.85
30.80
29.91
27.17
39.60
34.84
33.53
32.48
31.59
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
22.14
390.41
123.56
90.13
70.02
56.57
29.36
487.89
154.33
112.54
87.40
70.59
36.57
585.37
185.09
134.94
104.78
84.61
43.78
28.84
40.79
36.02
34.71
33.67
32.78
30.03
41.71
36.95
35.64
34.59
33.70
30.95
42.46
37.70
36.39
35.34
34.45
31.71

ORDEN
m
INTENCIDADES
ORDENADAS
PROB.EMPIRICA
P(x>X)=(m-0.3)/(n+0.4)
P(x<X)=1-P(x>X)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
22.08
18.40
14.08
13.19
13.15
13.00
12.89
11.88
11.77
11.21
11.08
10.97
10.53
10.45
10.43
10.17
9.68
9.67
9.46
9.36
8.98
8.87
8.84
8.81
8.63
8.60
8.47
8.06
6.80
0.0238
0.0578
0.0918
0.1259
0.1599
0.1939
0.2279
0.2619
0.2959
0.3299
0.3639
0.3980
0.4320
0.4660
0.5000
0.5340
0.5680
0.6020
0.6361
0.6701
0.7041
0.7381
0.7721
0.8061
0.8401
0.8741
0.9082
0.9422
0.9762
0.98
0.94
0.91
0.87
0.84
0.81
0.77
0.74
0.70
0.67
0.64
0.60
0.57
0.53
0.50
0.47
0.43
0.40
0.36
0.33
0.30
0.26
0.23
0.19
0.16
0.13
0.09
0.06
0.02
Media
Desv.Stand
datos: n =
PROB.TEORICA
F(x<X)
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.18089
0.15372
0.04366
11.018
3.150
29
Dp Tab. = 0.25
Vida Util N
( aos )
10
15
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.089
0.096
0.020
a = 0.407
b = 9.600
Dp mx. = 0.097
Si : D Tab. > D mx
DIFERENCIA
[P(x<X)-F(x<X)]
Incertidumbre
J(%)
Tr
( aos )
Imx ( =Xmx)
120 min (mm/h)
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
97.98
31.27
22.91
17.89
14.52
7.73
195.46
62.03
45.32
35.26
28.54
14.93
292.94
92.80
67.72
52.64
42.56
20.85
18.02
17.24
16.61
16.08
14.45
22.55
19.72
18.94
18.32
17.79
16.16
23.55
20.71
19.93
19.31
18.78
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
22.14
390.41
123.56
90.13
70.02
56.57
29.36
487.89
154.33
112.54
87.40
70.59
36.57
585.37
185.09
134.94
104.78
84.61
43.78
17.15
24.25
21.42
20.64
20.02
19.49
17.86
24.80
21.97
21.19
20.57
20.04
18.41
25.25
22.42
21.64
21.01
20.49
18.85
CUADRO N 4.18

INTENSIDADES MXIMAS (mm/h)
ORDEN
m
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
120 min
P(x>X)=(m-0.3)/(n+4)
P(x<X)
=1-P(x>x)
5 min
10 min
30 min
60 min
120 min
5 min
10 min
30 min
60 min
120 min
22.08
18.40
14.08
13.19
13.15
13.00
12.89
11.88
11.77
11.21
11.08
10.97
10.53
10.45
10.43
10.17
9.68
9.67
9.46
9.36
8.98
8.87
8.84
8.81
8.63
8.60
8.47
8.06
6.80
0.0238
0.0578
0.0918
0.1259
0.1599
0.1939
0.2279
0.2619
0.2959
0.3299
0.3639
0.3980
0.4320
0.4660
0.5000
0.5340
0.5680
0.6020
0.6361
0.6701
0.7041
0.7381
0.7721
0.8061
0.8401
0.8741
0.9082
0.9422
0.9762
0.98
0.94
0.91
0.87
0.84
0.81
0.77
0.74
0.70
0.67
0.64
0.60
0.57
0.53
0.50
0.47
0.43
0.40
0.36
0.33
0.30
0.26
0.23
0.19
0.16
0.13
0.09
0.06
0.02
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.18956
0.15372
0.04366
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.19982
0.15372
0.04366
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.20514
0.15372
0.04366
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.20085
0.15372
0.04366
0.99381
0.97261
0.85081
0.79330
0.79027
0.77861
0.76994
0.67405
0.66107
0.59440
0.57865
0.56431
0.50431
0.49293
0.48987
0.45187
0.37974
0.37893
0.34635
0.33271
0.27577
0.25956
0.25574
0.25231
0.22612
0.22282
0.18089
0.15372
0.04366
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.098
0.096
0.020
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.108
0.096
0.020
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.113
0.096
0.020
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.109
0.096
0.020
0.018
0.030
0.057
0.081
0.050
0.028
0.002
0.064
0.043
0.076
0.057
0.038
0.064
0.041
0.010
0.014
0.052
0.019
0.018
0.003
0.020
0.002
0.028
0.058
0.066
0.097
0.089
0.096
0.020
INTENSIDADES ORDENADAS
5 min
10 min
239.44 142.37
199.54 118.65
152.64 90.76
143.06 85.06
142.62 84.80
140.99 83.83
139.82 83.14
128.87 76.63
127.59 75.86
121.50 72.24
120.16 71.45
118.96 70.74
114.19 67.90
113.31 67.38
113.08 67.24
110.23 65.54
104.95 62.41
104.90 62.37
102.54 60.97
101.55 60.38
97.35 57.89
96.13 57.16
95.84 56.98
95.57 56.83
93.53 55.62
93.27 55.46
91.85 54.61
87.39 51.96
73.70 43.82
30 min
62.46
52.05
39.82
37.32
37.20
36.78
36.47
33.62
33.28
31.69
31.34
31.03
29.79
29.56
29.50
28.75
27.38
27.36
26.75
26.49
25.39
25.07
25.00
24.93
24.40
24.33
23.96
22.80
19.22
60 min
37.14
30.95
23.67
22.19
22.12
21.87
21.69
19.99
19.79
18.84
18.64
18.45
17.71
17.58
17.54
17.10
16.28
16.27
15.90
15.75
15.10
14.91
14.86
14.82
14.51
14.47
14.25
13.55
11.43
PROB.EMPIR.
PROB.TERICA
F(x<X)
DIFERENCIA (Dp) = [P(x<X)-F(x<X)]
Media
Desv.Stand.
datos: n =
a=
b=
Dp mx. =
5 min
119.47
34.16
29
0.04
104.10
0.098
10 min
71.04
20.31
29
0.06
61.90
0.108
30 min
31.16
8.91
29
0.14
27.15
0.113
60 min
18.53
5.30
29
0.24
16.15
0.109
120 min
11.02
3.15
29
0.41
9.60
0.097
Para 5 min.:
Dp Tab. = 0.25
Para 10 min.:
Dp Tab. = 0.25
Para 30 min.:
Dp Tab. = 0.25
Para 60 min.:
Dp Tab. = 0.25
Para 120 min.:

Dp Tab. = 0.25
CUADRO N 4.19

Vida til N
( aos )
10
15
20
25
30
Incertidumbre
J(%)
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
Tr
( aos )
97.98
31.27
22.91
17.89
14.52
7.73
195.46
62.03
45.32
35.26
28.54
14.93
292.94
92.80
67.72
52.64
42.56
22.14
390.41
123.56
90.13
70.02
56.57
29.36
487.89
154.33
112.54
87.40
70.59
36.57
585.37
185.09
134.94
104.78
84.61
43.78
Imx ( =Xmx) (mm/h)
5 min
226.06
195.34
186.90
180.14
174.41
156.72
244.51
213.80
205.36
198.59
192.87
175.18
255.31
224.60
216.16
209.39
203.67
185.97
262.97
232.26
223.82
217.05
211.33
193.64
268.92
238.20
229.76
223.00
217.27
199.58
273.77
243.06
234.62
227.85
222.13
204.43
10 min
30 min
60 min
134.41
116.15
111.13
107.11
103.71
93.18
145.39
127.13
122.11
118.09
114.68
104.16
151.81
133.55
128.53
124.51
121.10
110.58
156.37
138.10
133.08
129.06
125.66
115.14
159.90
141.64
136.62
132.59
129.19
118.67
162.79
144.52
139.50
135.48
132.08
121.56
58.97
50.95
48.75
46.99
45.49
40.88
63.78
55.77
53.57
51.80
50.31
45.69
66.60
58.59
56.38
54.62
53.13
48.51
68.60
60.58
58.38
56.62
55.12
50.51
70.15
62.14
59.93
58.17
56.67
52.06
71.41
63.40
61.20
59.43
57.94
53.33
35.06
30.30
28.99
27.94
27.05
24.31
37.92
33.16
31.85
30.80
29.91
27.17
39.60
34.84
33.53
32.48
31.59
28.84
40.79
36.02
34.71
33.67
32.78
30.03
41.71
36.95
35.64
34.59
33.70
30.95
42.46
37.70
36.39
35.34
34.45
31.71
120 min
20.85
18.02
17.24
16.61
16.08
14.45
22.55
19.72
18.94
18.32
17.79
16.16
23.55
20.71
19.93
19.31
18.78
17.15
24.25
21.42
20.64
20.02
19.49
17.86
24.80
21.97
21.19
20.57
20.04
18.41
25.25
22.42
21.64
21.01
20.49
18.85
INTENSIDADES MXIMAS PARA TIEMPOS DE DURACIN

Vida til N
( aos )
10
15
20
25
30
Incertidumbre
J(%)
Tr
( aos )
Imx (mm/hora)
05min
Imx (mm/hora)
10min
Imx (mm/hora)
30min
Imx (mm/hora)
60min
Imx (mm/hora)
120min
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
5
15
20
25
30
50
97.98
31.27
22.91
17.89
14.52
7.73
195.46
62.03
45.32
35.26
28.54
14.93
292.94
92.80
67.72
52.64
42.56
22.14
390.41
123.56
90.13
70.02
56.57
29.36
487.89
154.33
112.54
87.40
70.59
36.57
585.37
185.09
134.94
104.78
84.61
43.78
226.06
195.34
186.90
180.14
174.41
156.72
244.51
213.80
205.36
198.59
192.87
175.18
255.31
224.60
216.16
209.39
203.67
185.97
262.97
232.26
223.82
217.05
211.33
193.64
268.92
238.20
229.76
223.00
217.27
199.58
273.77
243.06
234.62
227.85
222.13
204.43
134.41
116.15
111.13
107.11
103.71
93.18
145.39
127.13
122.11
118.09
114.68
104.16
151.81
133.55
128.53
124.51
121.10
110.58
156.37
138.10
133.08
129.06
125.66
115.14
159.90
141.64
136.62
132.59
129.19
118.67
162.79
144.52
139.50
135.48
132.08
121.56
58.97
50.95
48.75
46.99
45.49
40.88
63.78
55.77
53.57
51.80
50.31
45.69
66.60
58.59
56.38
54.62
53.13
48.51
68.60
60.58
58.38
56.62
55.12
50.51
70.15
62.14
59.93
58.17
56.67
52.06
71.41
63.40
61.20
59.43
57.94
53.33
35.06
30.30
28.99
27.94
27.05
24.31
37.92
33.16
31.85
30.80
29.91
27.17
39.60
34.84
33.53
32.48
31.59
28.84
40.79
36.02
34.71
33.67
32.78
30.03
41.71
36.95
35.64
34.59
33.70
30.95
42.46
37.70
36.39
35.34
34.45
31.71
20.85
18.02
17.24
16.61
16.08
14.45
22.55
19.72
18.94
18.32
17.79
16.16
23.55
20.71
19.93
19.31
18.78
17.15
24.25
21.42
20.64
20.02
19.49
17.86
24.80
21.97
21.19
20.57
20.04
18.41
25.25
22.42
21.64
21.01
20.49
18.85
CUADRO N 4.19 (a)
VALORES DE LA INTENSIDAD MXIMA PARA UNA VIDA TIL DE 5 AOS PARA CUNETAS
Y UN RIESGO DE FALLA DE 30%
Vida til N
Incertidumbre
Tr
Imx (mm/hora)
Imx (mm/hora)
Imx (mm/hora)
Imx (mm/hora)
Imx (mm/hora)
( aos )
J(%)
( aos )
5 min.
10 minutos
30 minutos
60 minutos
120 minutos
30
14.52
174.41
103.71
45.49
27.05
16.08
CUADRO N 4.19 (b)
VALORES DE LA INTENSIDAD MXIMA PARA UNA VIDA TIL DE 10 AOS PARA ALCANTARILLAS
Y UN RIESGO DE FALLA DE 30%
Vida til N
Incertidumbre
Tr
Imx (mm/hora)
Imx (mm/hora)
Imx (mm/hora)
Imx (mm/hora)
Imx (mm/hora)
( aos )
(%)
10
30
( aos )
5 min.
10 minutos
30 minutos
60 minutos
120 minutos
28.54
192.87
114.68
50.31
29.91
17.79
GRAFICA 4.6 CURVA MODELADA DE INTENSIDAD-DURACIN-FRECUENCIA
INTENSIDAD MXIMA (mm/h).
250
200
N = 10 AOS
y = 644.9x-0.75
N = 5 AOS
y = 497.19x-0.5983
150
100
50
0
0 min.
20 min.
40 min.
60 min.
80 min.
TIEMPO (Min.)
100 min.
120 min.
140 min.

06 - Estudio Hidrológico

Cargado por

Información del documento

Título original

Derechos de autor

Formatos disponibles

Compartir este documento

Compartir o incrustar documentos

Opciones para compartir

¿Le pareció útil este documento?

¿Este contenido es inapropiado?

Copyright:

Formatos disponibles

06 - Estudio Hidrológico

Cargado por

Copyright:

Formatos disponibles

INFORMACION METEOROLOGICA

ESTACION : SAN MIGUEL.

Precip. Mx. en 24 horas

LATITUD: 06 59' 51" sur

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

SIMULACIN DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

SIMULACIN DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

SIMULACIN DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

SIMULACIN DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

SIMULACIN DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

PRUEBA DE BONDAD DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

DIFERENCIA (Dp) = [P(x<X)-F(x<X)]

Para 120 min.:

Por lo Tanto : Si se Ajusta a Gumbel

SIMULACIN DEL MODELO PROBABILSTICO DE GUMBEL

Imx ( =Xmx) (mm/h)

INTENSIDADES MXIMAS PARA TIEMPOS DE DURACIN

CUADRO N 4.19 (a)

CUADRO N 4.19 (b)

GRAFICA 4.6 CURVA MODELADA DE INTENSIDAD-DURACIN-FRECUENCIA

INTENSIDAD MXIMA (mm/h).

También podría gustarte