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Pronosticos Unidad 2
Y= a+bx
=
1 2/
b=Y-N(a)/x
(x)(y)=X(a)+X (b)
Y=N(a)+x(b)
a=Y-x(b)/N
Y=N(a)+x(b)
2
(x)(y)=X(a)+X (b)
b=(x)(y)-X(a)/X2
a=(x)(y)-X2(b)/X
LNY=N(LNa)+X(LNb)
2
(X)(LNY)=X(LNa)+X (LNb)
(Lna)= LNY/N
(LNb)=(X)(LNY)/X2
(X)(Y)=X(a)+X (b)+X c
(X)2(Y)=X2(a)+X3(b)+X4c
Se despejan a estas
formulas cuando, X=0
Y=N(a)+X2c
(X)(Y)=X2(b)
(X)2(Y)=X2(a)+X4c
1
2
Simultaneas
3
4
Formulas del Modelo Potencial
Y= (a)(x^b)
LNY=N(Lna)+LNX(b)
(LNX)(LNY)=(Lna)(LNX)+(LNX)2(b)
LNY=N(Lna)+LNX(b)
2
(LNX)(LNY)=(Lna)(LNX)+(LNX) (b)
AXIS TITLE
30
25
20
Yc
15
Media
10
5
0
1
10
Y=N(a)+x(b)
2
(x)(y)=X(a)+X (b)
a=y/N
b=(x)(y)/X2
=N(a)+X2c
X)(Y)=X2(b)
2
b=((X)(Y)/X2)
4
X) (Y)=X (a)+X c
Divdir los do valores de a el mayor entre el menor y multiplicarlo por -1
Multiplicar el valor dengativo por la primera columna y crear unba tercera con estos valores
Restar el resultado de la tercera columna a la segunda
Con stos valores dividir el valor de c al que esta a lado del igual.
rmulas del Modelo Potencial
(Lna)=LNY-LNX(b)/N
(Lna)=(LNX)(LNY)-(LNX)2(b)/(LNX)
b=LNY-(N(Lna))/LNX
b=((LNX)(LNY))-((Lna)(LNX))/(LNX)2
Y
AO
VENTAS
HISTORICAS
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
=
N=
Yprom
a=
b=
14.3
17.5
19.4
19.8
23.7
24.1
25
26.6
35.7
35.6
241.7
10
24.17
24.17
1.125
14.3
17.5
19.4
19.8
23.7
24.1
25.0
26.6
35.7
35.6
X Media
(X)(Y)
X2
Yc
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
0
24.17
24.17
24.17
24.17
24.17
24.17
24.17
24.17
24.17
24.17
-128.7
-122.5
-97
-59.4
-23.7
24.1
75
133
249.9
320.4
371.1
36.54
38.79
41.04
0.96
81
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
81
330
14.05
16.30
18.55
20.80
23.05
25.29
27.54
29.79
32.04
34.29
11
13
15
Y(2002)=
Y(2003)=
Y(2004)=
r=
Y= a+bx
Despeja para obtener a y b:
Y=N(a)+x(b)
2
(x)(y)=X(a)+X (b)
a=
Y/N
b=
(x)(y)/X2
(Yh-Yc)2
(Yh-Yprom)^2
0.06
1.44
0.73
0.99
0.43
1.43
6.47
10.19
13.38
1.71
36.84
97.42
44.49
22.75
19.10
0.22
0.00
0.69
5.90
132.94
130.64
454.16
Y/N
(x)(y)/X
24.170
2
1.125
Apuntes
Y
AO
VENTAS
HISTORICAS
(X)(Y)
14.3
14.3
17.5
17.5
19.4
19.4
19.8
19.8
23.7
23.7
24.1
24.1
2525.0
26.6
26.6
35.7
35.7
35.6
35.6
241.7
10
24.17
11.8
2.249
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
55
11
12
13
14.3
35
58.2
79.2
118.5
144.6
175
212.8
321.3
356
1514.9
Y(2002)=
Y(2003)=
Y(2004)=
r=
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
=
N=
Yprom
a=
b=
Y= a+bx
Y=N(a)+x(b)
(x)(y)=X(a)+X2(b)
X2
Yc
(Yh-Yc)2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
385
36.54
38.79
41.04
0.96
14.05
16.30
18.55
20.80
23.05
25.29
27.54
29.79
32.04
34.29
241.7
0.06
1.44
0.73
0.99
0.43
1.43
6.47
10.19
13.38
1.71
36.8421818
Sim
241.7
1514.9
-1329.35
185.55
=
=
=
=
Y=N(a)+x(b)
a= Y-x(b)/N
2
(x)(y)=X(a)+X (b)
a= (x)(y)-X2(b)/X
(Yh-Yprom)^2
Apuntes
97.42
44.49
22.75
19.10
0.22
0.00
0.69
5.90
132.94
130.64
454.161
10
55
-55
0
Simultaneas
a
+
a
+
a
+
a
+
b=
2.249
Y-x(b)/N
11.8
(x)(y)-X2(b)/X
11.8
55
385
-302.5
82.5
b
b
b
b
-5.5
Y
AO
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
=
N=
Yprom=
(LNa)=
(LNb)=
a=
b=
VENTAS
HISTORICAS
14.314.3
17.517.5
19.419.4
19.819.8
23.723.7
24.124.1
25.025
26.626.6
35.735.7
35.635.6
241.7
10
24.170
3.147
0.047
23.262
1.048
LNY
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
0
11
13
15
2.66
2.86
2.97
2.99
3.17
3.18
3.22
3.28
3.58
3.57
31.5
Y(2002)=
Y(2003)=
Y(2004)=
r=
(LNY)(X)
X2
Yc
-23.94
-20.04
-14.83
-8.96
-3.17
3.18
9.66
16.40
25.03
32.15
15.5
38.99
42.83
47.05
0.969
81
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
81
330.0
15.25
16.75
18.40
20.21
22.20
24.38
26.78
29.42
32.31
35.50
241.2
Y=(a)((b)x)
Formula despejada para obtener Lna y Lnb
LNY=N(LNa)+X(LNb)
2
(X)(LNY)=X(LNa)+X (LNb)
(Lna)= LNY/N
(LNb)=(X)(LNY)/X2
(Yh-Yc)2
(Yh-Yprom)^2
0.89
97.42
0.57
44.49
1.01
22.75
0.16
19.10
2.26
0.22
0.08
0.00
3.17
0.69
7.94
5.90
11.47
132.94
0.01
130.64
27.6
454.2
(Minimos Cuadrados)
Apuntes
Y
AO
VENTAS
HISTORICAS
14.3
14.3
17.5
17.5
19.4
19.4
19.8
19.8
23.7
23.7
24.1
24.1
2525.0
26.6
26.6
35.7
35.7
35.6
35.6
241.7
10
24.17
23.10
1.125
0.032
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
0
11
13
15
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
=
N=
Yprom=
a=
b=
c=
X2
81
49
25
9
1
1
9
25
49
81
330
Y(2002)=
Y(2003)=
Y(2004)=
r=
(X)(Y)
(X)2(Y)
X4
-128.7
-122.5
-97
-59.4
-23.7
24.1
75
133
249.9
320.4
371.1
39.39
43.19
47.26
0.969
1158.3
857.5
485
178.2
23.7
24.1
225
665
1749.3
2883.6
8249.7
6561
2401
625
81
1
1
81
625
2401
6561
19338
+
+
+
+
330
19338
-10890
8448
c
c
c
c
Y= a+bx+cx2
Simultaneas
241.7
8249.7
-7976.1
273.6
=
=
=
=
10
330
-330
0
a
a
a
a
a= (Y-X2c)/N
Y=N(a)+X2c
formula 3
(X)2(Y)=X2(a)+X4c
23.10125
2
23.10125
Despeje de las formulas para obtener b, y tambien para obtenre las formulas para aplicar las
Y=N(a)+X(b)+X2c
2
Y=N(a)+X2c
3
(X)(Y)=X(a)+X (b)+X c
2
(X)(Y)=X2(b)
2
X3
Yc
(Yh-Yc)2
(Yh-Yprom)^2
-729
-343
-125
-27
-1
1
27
125
343
729
0
15.60
16.82
18.29
20.02
22.01
24.26
26.77
29.53
32.56
35.85
241.7
1.70
0.47
1.24
0.05
2.86
0.03
3.12
8.61
9.86
0.06
27.98
97.42
44.49
22.75
19.10
0.22
0.00
0.69
5.90
132.94
130.64
454.16
-33
b=((X)(Y)/X2)
4
X c
Apuntes
Y
AO
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
=
N=
Yprom=
a=
b=
Lna=
VENTAS
HISTORICAS
LNY
LNX
LNX2
(LNY)(LNX)
14.3
14.3
17.5
17.5
19.4
19.4
19.8
19.8
23.7
23.7
24.1
24.1
2525.0
26.6
26.6
35.7
35.7
35.6
35.6
241.7
10
24.17
13.20
0.375
2.581
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
55
11
12
13
2.66
2.86
2.97
2.99
3.17
3.18
3.22
3.28
3.58
3.57
31.47
Y(2002)=
Y(2003)=
Y(2004)=
r=
0.00
0.69
1.10
1.39
1.61
1.79
1.95
2.08
2.20
2.30
15.10
32.45
33.52
34.54
0.918
0.00
0.48
1.21
1.92
2.59
3.21
3.79
4.32
4.83
5.30
27.65
0.00
1.98
3.26
4.14
5.09
5.70
6.26
6.82
7.86
8.23
49.34
31.47
10
49.34
475.31
-493.44
-18.13
=
=
=
=
15.10
151.04
-151.04
0.00
b
Y= (a)(x^b)
LNY=N(Lna)+LNX(b)
2
(LNX)(LNY)=(Lna)(LNX)+(LNX) (b)
LNY=N(Lna)+LNX(b)
(LNX)(LNY)=(Lna)(LNX)+(LNX)2(b)
(Lna)=
(Lna)=
Yc
(Yh-Yc)2
(Yh-Yprom)^2
13.20
17.12
19.93
22.20
24.14
25.85
27.39
28.79
30.09
31.31
240.04
1.20
0.14
0.29
5.78
0.20
3.06
5.70
4.81
31.43
18.44
71.05
97.42
44.49
22.75
19.10
0.22
0.00
0.69
5.90
132.94
130.64
454.16
Lna
15.10
15.10
Lna
Lna
Lna
Lna
=
+
+
+
+
0.37
27.65
228.14
-276.50
-48.36
b
b
b
b
-10
LNY-LNX(b)/N
2.581
(LNX)(LNY)-(LNX)2(b)/(LNX)
2.581
Apuntes
obtener LNa
Modelo
Lineal
Exponencial
Parabolico
Potencial
2002
36.54
38.99
39.39
32.45
Pronostico
2003
38.79
42.83
43.19
33.52
2004
41.04
47.05
47.26
34.54
r
0.9586
0.9692
0.9687
0.91846