Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Ejemplo. Pronosticos Maiz Completo
Ejemplo. Pronosticos Maiz Completo
Ao
Miles de
Miles de Toneladas
Toneladas Otoo- Total Anual
Primavera-Verano
Invierno
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
13233
12544
14825
14302
13262
14620
14864
13595
15121
1403
1707
2104
3823
4974
3733
3160
4061
3334
14636
14251
16929
18125
18236
18353
18024
17656
18455
17185
Media
17185
17185
17185
17185
17185
17185
17185
17185
17185
http://www.virtual.chapingo.mx/dona/paginaCBasicos/Maiz90-99.pdf
Miles de Toneladas
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Otoo-Invierno
1403
1707
2104
3823
4974
3733
Primavera-Verano
13233
12544
14825
14302
13262
14620
14864
Miles de Toneladas
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Ao
1995
1996
1996
1997
1998
3160
4061
3334
14864
13595
15121
Maz en grano
1997
1998
1999
Ao
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Miles de Miles de
Toneladas Toneladas
Primavera- OtooVerano
Invierno
13233
12544
14825
14302
13262
14620
14864
13595
15121
1403
1707
2104
3823
4974
3733
3160
4061
3334
Total
Anual
14636
14251
16929
18125
18236
18353
18024
17656
18455
Promedio
Promedio Promedio ponderad
simple
Mvil 3
o
0.5,0.3,0.2
14443.50
15272.00
15985.25
16435.40
16755.00
16936.29
17026.25
17185.00
15272.00
16435.00
17763.33
18238.00
18204.33
18011.00
18045.00
15667.00
16991.40
17941.30
18272.30
18165.10
17905.80
18129.10
0.5
0.3
0.2
14443.50
15272.00
15985.25
16435.40
16755.00
16936.29
17026.25
17185.00
2485.50
2853.00
2250.75
1917.60
1269.00
719.71
1428.75
1846.33
15272.00
16435.00
17763.33
18238.00
18204.33
18011.00
18045.00
2853.00
1801.00
589.67
214.00
548.33
444.00
1075.00
15667.00
16991.40
17941.30
18272.30
18165.10
17905.80
18129.10
2458.00
1244.60
411.70
248.30
509.10
549.20
903.48
14636
14251
16929
18125
18236
18353
18024
17656
18455
14443.50
15272.00
15985.25
16435.40
16755.00
16936.29
17026.25
17185.00
-2485.50
-2853.00
-2250.75
-1917.60
-1269.00
-719.71
-1428.75
-1846.33
15272.00
16435.00
17763.33
18238.00
18204.33
18011.00
18045.00
-2853.00
-1801.00
-589.67
214.00
548.33
-444.00
-820.89
15667.00
16991.40
17941.30
18272.30
18165.10
17905.80
18129.10
-2458.00
-1244.60
-411.70
248.30
509.10
-549.20
-651.02
15686.25
16698.50
17110.63
17394.20
17389.50
17296.14
17740.63
14816.33
15699.95
16322.86
16723.04
16945.35
17044.24
17240.56
a=
a=
a=
0.5
0.15
0.85
Suavizamient
Suavizamien
o simple
MAD S.S. 0.5 to simple
a=0.5
a=0.15
15686.25
16698.50
17110.63
17394.20
17389.50
17296.14
17740.63
2438.75
1537.50
1242.38
629.80
266.50
1158.86
1212.30
14816.33
15699.95
16322.86
16723.04
16945.35
17044.24
17240.56
Suavizami
ento
MAD S.S. 0.15
simple
a=0.85
3308.68
2536.05
2030.14
1300.96
710.65
1410.76
1882.87
16556.18
17697.05
17898.39
18065.36
17833.65
17548.04
18240.69
MAD S.S.
0.85
1568.83
538.95
454.61
41.36
177.65
906.96
614.73
Sesgo
Suavizami
Sesgo
Suavizamient
Suavizamien
Sesgo
Suavizamien
ento
Suavizamien
o simple
to simple
Suavizamiento
to Simple a=
simple to Simple a =
a=0.5
a=0.15
Simple a = 0.15
0.5
a=0.85
0.85
15686.25
16698.50
17110.63
17394.20
17389.50
17296.14
17740.63
-2438.75
-1537.50
-1242.38
-629.80
-266.50
-1158.86
-1212.30
14816.33
15699.95
16322.86
16723.04
16945.35
17044.24
17240.56
-3308.68
-2536.05
-2030.14
-1300.96
-710.65
-1410.76
-1882.87
16556.18
17697.05
17898.39
18065.36
17833.65
17548.04
18240.69
18782.41
-1568.83
-538.95
-454.61
41.36
177.65
-906.96
-541.72