Global Warming
I INTRODUCTION
Global Warming, increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere,
oceans, and landmasses of
Earth. The planet has warmed (and cooled) many times during the 4.65 billion
years of its history. At
present Earth appears to be facing a rapid warming, which most scientists
believe results, at least in part, from human activities. The chief cause of this
warming is thought to be the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and
natural gas, which releases into the atmosphere carbon dioxide and other
substances known as greenhouse gases. As the atmosphere becomes richer
in these gases, it becomes a better insulator, retaining more of the heat
provided to the planet by the Sun. The average surface temperature of Earth is
about 15°C (59°F). Over the last century, this average has risen by about 0.6
Celsius degree (1 Fahrenheit degree). Scientists predict further warming of 1.4
to 5.8 Celsius degrees (2.5 to 10.4 Fahrenheit degrees) by the year 2100. This
temperature rise is expected to melt polar ice caps and glaciers as well as
warm the oceans, all of which will expand ocean volume and raise sea level by
an estimated 9 to 100 cm (4 to 40 in), flooding some coastal regions and even
entire islands. Some regions in warmer climates will receive more rainfall than
before, but soils will dry out faster between storms. This soil desiccation may
damage food crops, disrupting food supplies in some parts of the world. Plant
and animal species will shift their ranges toward the poles or to higher
elevations seeking cooler temperatures, and species that cannot do so may
become extinct. The potential consequences of global warming are so great
that many of the world's leading scientists have called for international
cooperation and immediate action to counteract the problem.
II THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
The energy that lights and warms Earth comes from the Sun. Most of the
energy that floods onto our planet is short-wave radiation, including visible
light. When this energy strikes the surface of Earth, the energy changes from
light to heat and warms Earth. Earth’s surface, in turn, releases some of this
heat as long-wave infrared radiation.
Much of this long-wave infrared radiation makes it all the way back out to
space, but a portion remains trapped in Earth’s atmosphere. Certain gases in
the atmosphere, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane, provide
the trap. Absorbing and reflecting infrared waves radiated by Earth, these
gases conserve heat as the glass in a greenhouse does and are thus known as
greenhouse gases. As the concentration of these greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere increases, more heat energy remains trapped below. All life on
Earth relies on this greenhouse effect—without it, the planet would be colder by
about 33 Celsius degrees (59 Fahrenheit degrees), and ice would cover Earth
from pole to pole. However, a growing excess of greenhouse gases in Earth’s
atmosphere threatens to tip the balance in the other direction—toward
continual warming.
III TYPES OF GREENHOUSE GASES
Greenhouse gases occur naturally in the environment and also result from
human activities. By far the most abundant greenhouse gas is water vapor,
which reaches the atmosphere through evaporation from oceans, lakes, and
rivers.
Carbon dioxide is the next most abundant greenhouse gas. It flows into the
atmosphere from many natural processes, such as volcanic eruptions; the
respiration of animals, which breathe in oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide; and
the burning or decay of organic matter, such as plants. Carbon dioxide leaves
the atmosphere when it is absorbed into ocean water and through the
photosynthesis of plants, especially trees. Photosynthesis breaks up carbon
dioxide, releasing oxygen into the atmosphere and incorporating the carbon
into new plant tissue.
Humans escalate the amount of carbon dioxide released to the atmosphere
when they burn fossil fuels, solid wastes, and wood and wood products to heat
buildings, drive vehicles, and generate electricity. At the same time, the number
of trees available to absorb carbon dioxide through photosynthesis has been
greatly reduced by deforestation, the long-term destruction of forests by
indiscriminate cutting of trees for lumber or to clear land for agricultural
activities.
Ultimately, the oceans and other natural processes absorb excess carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere.
However, human activities have caused carbon dioxide to be released to the
atmosphere at rates much faster than that at which Earth’s natural processes
can cycle this gas. In 1750 there were about 281 molecules of carbon dioxide
per million molecules of air (abbreviated as parts per million, or ppm). Today
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are 368 ppm, which reflects a 31
percent increase.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increases by about 1.5 ppm per
year. If current predictions prove accurate, by the year 2100 carbon dioxide will
reach concentrations of more than 540 to 970 ppm.
At the highest estimation, this concentration would be triple the levels prior to
the Industrial Revolution, the widespread replacement of human labor by
machines that began in Britain in the mid-18th century and soon spread to
other parts of Europe and to the United States.
Methane is an even more effective insulator, trapping over 20 times more heat
than does the same amount of carbon dioxide. Methane is emitted during the
production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil. Methane also comes
from rotting organic waste in landfills, and it is released from certain animals,
especially cows, as a byproduct of digestion. Since the beginning of the
Industrial Revolution in the mid- 1700s, the amount of methane in the
atmosphere has more than doubled.
Nitrous oxide is a powerful insulating gas released primarily by burning fossil
fuels and by plowing farm soils. Nitrous oxide traps about 300 times more heat
than does the same amount of carbon dioxide. The concentration of nitrous
oxide in the atmosphere has increased 17 percent over preindustrial levels. In
addition, greenhouse gases are produced in many manufacturing processes.
Perfluorinated compounds result from the smelting of aluminum.
Hydrofluorocarbons form during the manufacture of many products, including
the foams used in insulation, furniture, and car seats. Refrigerators built in
some developing nations still use chlorofluorocarbons as coolants. In addition
to their ability to retain atmospheric heat, some of these synthetic chemicals
also destroy Earth’s high-altitude ozone layer, the protective layer of gases that
shields Earth from damaging ultraviolet radiation. For most of the 20th century
these chemicals have been accumulating in the atmosphere at unprecedented
rates. But since 1995, in response to regulations enforced by the Montréal
Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer and its amendments,
the atmospheric concentrations of many of these gases are either increasing
more slowly or decreasing. Scientists are growing concerned about other
gases produced from manufacturing processes that pose an environmental
risk. In 2000 scientists identified a substantial rise in atmospheric
concentrations of a newly identified synthetic compound called trifluoromethyl
sulfur pentafluoride. Atmospheric concentrations of this gas are rising quickly,
and although it still is extremely rare in the atmosphere, scientists are
concerned because the gas traps heat more effectively than all other known
greenhouse gases. Perhaps more worrisome, scientists have been unable to
confirm the industrial source of the gas.
IV MEASURING GLOBAL WARMING
As early as 1896 scientists suggested that burning fossil fuels might change
the composition of the atmosphere and that an increase in global average
temperature might result. The first part of this hypothesis was confirmed in
1957, when researchers working in the global research program called the
International Geophysical Year sampled the atmosphere from the top of the
Hawaiian volcano Mauna Loa. Their instruments indicated that carbon dioxide
concentration was indeed rising. Since then, the composition of the
atmosphere has been carefully tracked. The data collected show undeniably
that the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are increasing.
Scientists have long suspected that the global climate, the long-term average
pattern of temperature, was also growing warmer, but they were unable to
provide conclusive proof. Temperatures vary widely all the time and from place
to place. It takes many years of climate observations to establish a trend.
Records going back to the late 1800s did seem to show a warming trend, but
these statistics were spotty and untrustworthy. Early weather stations often
were located near cities, where temperature measurements were affected by
the heat emitted from buildings and vehicles and stored by building materials
and pavements. Since 1957, however, data have been gathered from more
reliable weather stations, located far away from cities, and from satellites.
These data have provided new, more accurate measurements, especially for
the 70 percent of the planetary surface that is ocean water (see Satellite,
Artificial). These more accurate records indicate that a surface warming trend
exists and that, moreover, it has become more pronounced. Looking back from
the end of the 20th century, records show that the ten warmest years of the
century all occurred after 1980, and the three hottest years occurred after
1990, with 1998 being the warmest year of all. Greenhouse gas concentrations
are increasing. Temperatures are rising. But does the gas increase necessarily
cause the warming, and will these two phenomena continue to occur together?
In 1988 the United Nations Environment Program and the World
Meteorological Organization established a panel of 200 leading scientists to
consider the evidence. In its Third Assessment Report, released in 2001, this
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global air
temperature had increased 0.6 Celsius degree (1 Fahrenheit degree) since
1861. The panel agreed that the warming was caused primarily by human
activities that add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The IPCC predicted in
2001 that the average global temperature would rise by another 1.4 to 5.8
Celsius degrees (2.5 to 10.4 Fahrenheit degrees) by the year 2100.
The IPCC panel cautioned that even if greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere ceased growing by the year 2100, the climate would continue to
warm for a period after that as a result of past emissions. Carbon dioxide
remains in the atmosphere for a century or more before nature can dispose of
it. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, experts predict that
carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere could rise to more than three
times preindustrial levels early in the 22nd century, resulting in dramatic climate
changes. Large climate changes of the type predicted are not unprecedented;
indeed, they have occurred many times in the history of Earth. However,
human beings would face this latest climate swing with a huge population at
risk.
V EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
Scientists use elaborate computer models of temperature, precipitation
patterns, and atmosphere circulation to study global warming. Based on these
models, scientists have made several predictions about how global warming
will affect weather, sea levels, coastlines, agriculture, wildlife, and human
health.
A Weather
Scientists predict that during global warming, the northern regions of the
Northern Hemisphere will heat up more than other areas of the planet, northern
and mountain glaciers will shrink, and less ice will float on northern oceans.
Regions that now experience light winter snows may receive no snow at all. In
temperate mountains, snowlines will be higher and snowpacks will melt earlier.
Growing seasons will be longer in some areas. Winter and nighttime
temperatures will tend to rise more than summer and daytime ones. The
warmed world will be generally more humid as a result of more water
evaporating from the oceans. Scientists are not sure whether a more humid
atmosphere will encourage or discourage further warming. On the one hand,
water vapor is a greenhouse gas, and its increased presence should add to the
insulating effect. On the other hand, more vapor in the atmosphere will produce
more clouds, which reflect sunlight back into space, which should slow the
warming process. Greater humidity will increase rainfall, on average, about 1
percent for each Fahrenheit degree of warming. (Rainfall over the continents
has already increased by about 1 percent in the last 100 years.) Storms are
expected to be more frequent and more intense. However, water will also
evaporate more rapidly from soil, causing it to dry out faster between rains.
Some regions might actually become drier than before. Winds will blow harder
and perhaps in different patterns. Hurricanes, which gain their force from the
evaporation of water, are likely to be more severe. Against the background of
warming, some very cold periods will still occur. Weather patterns are expected
to be less predictable and more extreme.
B Sea Levels
As the atmosphere warms, the surface layer of the ocean warms as well,
expanding in volume and thus raising sea level. Warming will also melt much
glacier ice, especially around Greenland, further swelling the sea. Sea levels
worldwide rose 10 to 25 cm (4 to 10 in) during the 20th century, and IPCC
scientists predict a further rise of 9 to 88 cm (4 to 35 in) in the 21st century.
Sea-level changes will complicate life in many coastal regions. A 100-cm (40-
in) rise could submerge 6 percent of The Netherlands, 17.5 percent of
Bangladesh, and most or all of many islands. Erosion of cliffs, beaches, and
dunes will increase. Storm surges, in which winds locally pile up water and
raise the sea, will become more frequent and damaging. As the sea invades
the mouths of rivers, flooding from runoff will also increase upstream. Wealthier
countries will spend huge amounts of money to protect their shorelines, while
poor countries may simply evacuate low-lying coastal regions. Even a modest
rise in sea level will greatly change coastal ecosystems. A 50-cm (20-in) rise
will submerge about half of the present coastal wetlands of the United States.
New marshes will form in many places, but not where urban areas and
developed landscapes block the way. This sea-level rise will cover much of the
Florida Everglades.
C Agriculture
A warmed globe will probably produce as much food as before, but not
necessarily in the same places.
Southern Canada, for example, may benefit from more rainfall and a longer
growing season. At the same time, the semiarid tropical farmlands in some
parts of Africa may become further impoverished. Desert farm regions that
bring in irrigation water from distant mountains may suffer if the winter
snowpack, which functions as a natural reservoir, melts before the peak
growing months. Crops and woodlands may also be afflicted by more insects
and plant diseases.
D Animals and Plants
Animals and plants will find it difficult to escape from or adjust to the effects of
warming because humans occupy so much land. Under global warming,
animals will tend to migrate toward the poles and up mountainsides toward
higher elevations, and plants will shift their ranges, seeking new areas as old
habitats grow too warm. In many places, however, human development will
prevent this shift. Species that find cities or farmlands blocking their way north
or south may die out. Some types of forests, unable to propagate toward the
poles fast enough, may disappear.
E Human Health
In a warmer world, scientists predict that more people will get sick or die from
heat stress, due less to hotter days than to warmer nights (giving the sufferers
less relief). Diseases now found in the tropics, transmitted by mosquitoes and
other animal hosts, will widen their range as these animal hosts move into
regions formerly too cold for them. Today 45 percent of the world’s people live
where they might get bitten by a mosquito carrying the parasite that causes
malaria; that percentage may increase to 60 percent if temperatures rise. Other
tropical diseases may spread similarly, including dengue fever, yellow fever,
and encephalitis. Scientists also predict rising incidence of allergies and
respiratory diseases as warmer air grows more charged with pollutants, mold
spores, and pollens.
VI DEBATES OVER GLOBAL WARMING
Scientists do not all agreed about the nature and impact of global warming. A
few observers still question whether temperatures have actually been rising at
all. Others acknowledge past change but argue that it is much too early to be
making predictions for the future. Such critics may also deny that the evidence
for the human contribution to warming is conclusive, arguing that a purely
natural cycle may be driving temperatures upward. The same dissenters tend
to emphasize the fact that continued warming could have benefits in some
regions. Scientists who question the global warming trend point to three
puzzling differences between the predictions of the global warming models and
the actual behavior of the climate. First, the warming trend stopped for three
decades in the middle of the 20th century; there was even some cooling before
the climb resumed in the 1970s. Second, the total amount of warming during
the 20th century was only about half what computer models predicted. Third,
the troposphere, the lower region of the atmosphere, did not warm as fast as
the models forecast. However, global warming proponents believe that two of
the three discrepancies have now been explained.
The lack of warming at midcentury is now attributed largely to air pollution that
spews particulate matter, especially sulfates, into the upper atmosphere. These
particulates, also known as aerosols, reflect some incoming sunlight out into
space. Continued warming has now overcome this effect, in part because
pollution control efforts have made the air cleaner. The unexpectedly small
amount of total warming since 1900 is now attributed to the oceans absorbing
vast amounts of the extra heat. Scientists long suspected that this was
happening but lacked the data to prove it. In 2000 the U.S. National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) offered a new analysis of water
temperature readings made by observers around the world over 50 years.
Records showed a distinct warming trend: World ocean temperatures in 1998
were higher than the 50-year average by 0.2 Celsius degree (0.3 Fahrenheit
degree), a small but very significant amount. The third discrepancy is the most
puzzling. Satellites detect less warming in the troposphere than the computer
models of global climate predict. According to some critics, the atmospheric
readings are right, and the higher temperatures recorded at Earth’s surface are
not to be trusted. In January 2000 a panel appointed by the National Academy
of Sciences to weigh this argument reaffirmed that surface warming could not
be doubted. However, the lower-than-predicted troposphere measurements
have not been entirely explained.
VII EFFORTS TO CONTROL GLOBAL WARMING
The total consumption of fossil fuels is increasing by about 1 percent per year.
No steps currently being taken or under serious discussion will likely prevent
global warming in the near future. The challenge today is managing the
probable effects while taking steps to prevent detrimental climate changes in
the future. Damage can be curbed locally in various ways. Coastlines can be
armored with dikes and barriers to block encroachments of the sea.
Alternatively, governments can assist coastal populations in moving to higher
ground. Some countries, such as the United States, still have the chance to
help plant and animal species survive by preserving habitat corridors, strips of
relatively undeveloped land running north and south. Species can gradually
shift their ranges along these corridors, moving toward cooler habitats. There
are two major approaches to slowing the buildup of greenhouse gases. The
first is to keep carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere by storing the gas or its
carbon component somewhere else, a strategy called carbon sequestration.
The second major approach is to reduce the production of greenhouse gases.
A Carbon Sequestration
The simplest way to sequester carbon is to preserve trees and to plant more.
Trees, especially young and fast-growing ones, soak up a great deal of carbon
dioxide, break it down in photosynthesis, and store the carbon in new wood.
Worldwide, forests are being cut down at an alarming rate, particularly in the
tropics. In many areas, there is little regrowth as land loses fertility or is
changed to other uses, such as farming or building housing developments.
Reforestation could offset these losses and counter part of the greenhouse
buildup. Many companies and governments in the United States, Norway,
Brazil, Malaysia, Russia, and Australia have initiated reforestation projects. In
Guatemala, the AES Corporation, a U.S.-based electrical company, has joined
forces with the World Resources Institute and the relief agency CARE to create
community woodlots and to teach local residents about tree-farming practices.
The trees planted are expected to absorb up to 58 million tons of carbon
dioxide over 40 years. Carbon dioxide gas can also be sequestered directly.
Carbon dioxide has traditionally been injected into oil wells to force more
petroleum out of the ground or seafloor. Now it is being injected simply to
isolate it underground in oil fields, coal beds, or aquifers. At one natural gas
drilling platform off the coast of Norway, carbon dioxide brought to the surface
with the natural gas is captured and reinjected into an aquifer from which it
cannot escape. The same process can be used to store carbon dioxide
released by a power plant, factory, or any large stationary source. Deep ocean
waters could also absorb a great deal of carbon dioxide. The feasibility and
environmental effects of both these options are now under study by
international teams. In an encouraging trend, energy use around the world has
slowly shifted away from fuels that release a great deal of carbon dioxide
toward fuels that release somewhat less of this heat-trapping gas. Wood was
the first major source of energy used by humans. With the dawn of the
Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, coal became the dominant energy
source. By the mid-19th century oil had replaced coal in dominance, fueling the
internal combustion engines that were eventually used in automobiles. By the
20th century, natural gas began to be used worldwide for heating and lighting.
In this progression, combustion of natural gas releases less carbon dioxide
than oil, which in turn releases less of the gas than do either coal or wood.
Nuclear energy, though controversial for reasons of safety and the high costs
of nuclear waste disposal, releases no carbon dioxide at all. Solar power, wind
power, and hydrogen fuel cells also emit no greenhouse gases. Someday
these alternative energy sources may prove to be practical, low-pollution
energy sources, although progress today is slow.
B National and Local Programs
The developed countries are all working to reduce greenhouse emissions.
Several European countries impose heavy taxes on energy usage, designed
partly to curb such emissions. Norway taxes industries according to the amount
of carbon dioxide they emit. In The Netherlands, government and industry have
negotiated agreements aimed at increasing energy efficiency, promoting
alternative energy sources, and cutting down greenhouse gas output. In the
United States, the Department of Energy, the Environmental Protection
Agency, product manufacturers, local utilities, and retailers have collaborated
to implement the Energy Star program. This voluntary program rates
appliances for energy use and gives some money back to consumers who buy
efficient machines. The Canadian government has established the FleetWise
program to cut carbon dioxide emissions from federal vehicles by reducing the
number of vehicles it owns and by training drivers to use them more efficiently.
By 2004, 75 percent of Canadian federal vehicles are to run on alternative
fuels, such as methanol and ethanol. Many local governments are also working
against greenhouse emissions by conserving energy in buildings, modernizing
their vehicles, and advising the public. Individuals, too, can take steps. The
same choices that reduce other kinds of pollution work against global warming.
Every time a consumer buys an energy efficient appliance; adds insulation to a
house; recycles paper, metal, and glass; chooses to live near work; or
commutes by public transportation, he or she is fighting global warming.
C International Agreements
International cooperation is required for the successful reduction of greenhouse
gases. In 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 150 countries
pledged to confront the problem of greenhouse gases and agreed to meet
again to translate these good intentions into a binding treaty. In 1997 in Japan,
160 nations drafted a much stronger agreement known as the Kyōto Protocol.
This treaty, which has not yet been implemented, calls for the 38 industrialized
countries that now release the most greenhouse gases to cut their emissions to
levels 5 percent below those of 1990. This reduction is to be achieved no later
than 2012. Initially, the United States voluntarily accepted a more ambitious
target, promising to reduce emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels; the
European Union, which had wanted a much tougher treaty, committed to 8
percent; and Japan, to 6 percent. The remaining 122 nations, mostly
developing nations, were not asked to commit to a reduction in gas emissions.
But in 2001 newly elected U.S. president George W. Bush renounced the treaty
saying that such carbon dioxide reductions in the United States would be too
costly. He also objected that developing nations would not be bound by similar
carbon dioxide reducing obligations. The Kyōto Protocol could not go into effect
unless industrial nations accounting for 55 percent of 1990 greenhouse gas
emissions ratified it. That requirement was met in 2004 when the cabinet of
Russian president Vladimir Putin approved the treaty, paving the way for it to
go into effect in 2005.
Some critics find the Kyōto Protocol too weak. Even if it were enforced
immediately, it would only slightly slow the buildup of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. Much stronger action would be required later, particularly because
the developing nations exempted from the Kyōto rules are expected to produce
half the world’s greenhouse gases by 2035. The most influential opponents of
the protocol, however, find it too strong. Opposition to the treaty in the United
States is spurred by the oil industry, the coal industry, and other enterprises
that manufacture or depend on fossil fuels. These opponents claim that the
economic costs to carry out the Kyōto Protocol could be as much as $300
billion, due mainly to higher energy prices. Proponents of the Kyōto sanctions
believe the costs will prove more modest—$88 billion or less—much of which
will be recovered as Americans save money after switching to more efficient
appliances, vehicles, and industrial processes. Behind the issue of cost lies a
larger question: Can an economy grow without increasing its greenhouse gas
emissions at the same time? In the past, prosperity and pollution have tended
to go together. Can they now be separated, or decoupled, as economists say?
In nations with strong environmental policies, economies have continued to
grow even as many types of pollution have been reduced. However, limiting the
emission of carbon dioxide has proved especially difficult. For example, The
Netherlands, a heavily industrialized country that is also an environmental
leader, has done very well against most kinds of pollution but has failed to meet
its goal of reducing carbon dioxide output. After 1997 representatives to the
Kyōto Protocol met regularly to negotiate a consensus about certain
unresolved issues , such as the rules, methods, and penalties that should be
enforced in each country to slow greenhouse emissions. The negotiators
designed a system in which nations with successful cleanup programs could
profit by selling unused pollution rights to other nations. For example, nations
that find further improvement difficult, such as The Netherlands, could buy
pollution credits on the market, or perhaps earn them by helping reduce
greenhouse gas emissions in less developed countries, where more can be
achieved at less expense. Russia, in particular, stood to benefit from this
system. In 1990 the Russian economy was in a shambles, and its greenhouse
gas emissions were huge. Since then Russia has already cut its emissions by
more than 5 percent below 1990 levels and is in a position to sell emission
credits to other industrialized countries, particularly those in the European
Union (EU).
Contributed By:
John Hart
Microsoft ® Encarta ® Reference Library 2005. © 1993-2004 Microsoft
Corporation. All rights reserved.
Disadvantages of Global Warming
• Ocean circulation disrupted, disrupting and having unknown
effects on world climate.
• Higher sea level leading to flooding of low-lying lands and
deaths and disease from flood and evacuation.
• Deserts get drier leaving to increased desertification.
• Changes to agricultural production that can lead to food
shortages.
• Water shortages in already water-scarce areas.
• Starvation, malnutrition, and increased deaths due to food and
crop shortages.
• More extreme weather and an increased frequency of severe
and catastrophic storms.
• Increased disease in humans and animals.
• Increased deaths from heat waves.
• Extinction of additional species of animals and plants.
• Loss of animal and plant habitats.
• Increased emigration of those from poorer or low-lying
countries to wealthier or higher countries seeking better (or
non-deadly) conditions.
• Additional use of energy resources for cooling needs.
• Increased air pollution.
• Increased allergy and asthma rates due to earlier blooming of
plants.
• Melt of permafrost leads to destruction of structures,
landslides, and avalanches.
• Permanent loss of glaciers and ice sheets.
• Cultural or heritage sites destroyed faster due to increased
extremes.
• Increased acidity of rainfall.
• Earlier drying of forests leading to increased forest fires in size
and intensity.
• Increased cost of insurance as insurers pay out more claims
resulting from increasingly large disasters.
Advantages of Global Warming
• Arctic, Antarctic, Siberia, and other frozen regions of earth may
experience more plant growth and milder climates.
• The next ice age may be prevented from occurring.
• Northwest Passage through Canada's formerly-icy north opens
up to sea transportation.
• Less need for energy consumption to warm cold places.
• Fewer deaths or injuries due to cold weather.
• Longer growing seasons could mean increased agricultural
production in some local areas.
• Mountains increase in height due to melting glaciers, becoming
higher as they rebound against the missing weight of the ice.
I Global Warming in the Past
I
Earth has warmed and cooled many times since its formation about 4.6 billion
years ago. Global climate changes were due to many factors, including
massive volcanic eruptions, which increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere;
changes in the intensity of energy emitted by the Sun; and variations in Earth’s
position relative to the Sun, both in its orbit and in the inclination of its spin axis.
Variations in Earth’s position, known as Milankovitch cycles, combine to
produce cyclical changes in the global climate. These cycles are believed to be
responsible for the repeated advance and retreat of glaciers and ice sheets
during the Pleistocene Epoch (1.8 million to 11,500 years before present),
when Earth went through fairly regular cycles of colder “glacial” periods (also
known as ice ages) and warmer “interglacial” periods. Glacial periods occurred
at roughly 100,000-year intervals. An interglacial period began about 10,000
years ago, when the last ice age came to an end. Prior to that ice age, an
interglacial period occurred about 125,000 years ago.
During interglacial periods, greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and
methane naturally increase in the atmosphere from increased plant and animal
life. But since 1750 greenhouse gases have increased dramatically to levels
not seen in hundreds of thousands of years, due to the rapid growth of the
human population combined with developments in technology and agriculture.
Human activities now are a powerful factor influencing Earth’s dynamic climate.
The ice of the polar regions furnishes clues to the makeup of Earth’s ancient
atmosphere. Ice cores that scientists have bored from the ice sheets of
Greenland and Antarctica provide natural records of both temperature and
atmospheric greenhouse gases going back hundreds of thousands of years.
Layers in these ice cores created by seasonal snowfall patterns allow scientists
to determine the age of the ice in each core. By measuring tiny air bubbles
trapped in the ice and properties of the ice itself, scientists can estimate the
temperature and amount of greenhouse gases in Earth’s past atmosphere at
the time each layer formed. Based on this data, scientists know that
greenhouse gases have now risen to levels higher than at any time in the last
650,000 years.
Greenhouse gases are rising, and temperatures are following. Before the late
1800s, the average surface temperature of Earth was almost 15°C (59°F).
Over the past 100 years, the average surface temperature has risen by about
0.7 Celsius degrees (1.3 Fahrenheit degrees), with most of the increase
occurring since the 1970s. Scientists have linked even this amount of warming
to numerous changes taking place around the world, including melting
mountain glaciers and polar ice, rising sea level, more intense and longer
droughts, more intense storms, more frequent heat waves, and changes in the
life cycles of many plants and animals. Warming has been most dramatic in the
Arctic, where temperatures have risen almost twice as much as the global
average.
III Global Warming in the Future
Print this section
Scientists project global warming to continue at a rate that is unprecedented in
hundreds of thousands or even millions of years of Earth’s history. They predict
considerably more warming in the 21st century, depending on the level of
future greenhouse gas emissions. For a scenario (possible situation) assuming
higher emissions—in which emissions continue to increase significantly during
the century—scientists project further warming of 2.4 to 6.4 Celsius degrees
(4.3 to 11.5 Fahrenheit degrees) by the year 2100. For a scenario assuming
lower emissions—in which emissions grow slowly, peak around the year 2050,
and then fall—scientists project further warming of 1.1 to 2.9 Celsius degrees
(1.9 to 5.2 Fahrenheit degrees) by the year 2100.
Melting polar ice and glaciers, as well as warming of the oceans, expands
ocean volume and raises sea level, which will eventually flood some coastal
regions and even entire islands. Patterns of rainfall are expected to change,
with higher latitudes (closer to the poles) projected to receive more rainfall, and
subtropical areas (such as the Mediterranean and southern Africa) projected to
receive considerably less. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns
may damage food crops, disrupting food production in some parts of the world.
Plant and animal species will shift their ranges toward the poles or to higher
elevations seeking cooler temperatures, and species that cannot do so may
become extinct. Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere also
leads to increased ocean acidity, damaging ocean ecosystems.
Human beings face global warming with a huge population at risk. The
potential consequences are so great that many of the world’s leading scientists
—and increasingly, politicians, business leaders, and other citizens—are
calling for international cooperation and immediate action to counteract the
problem.
Advantages and Disadvantages of global warming permalink
Positive and Negative effect of the global warming on the people and the
planet
In February 2007, the United Nations released a scientific report that concludes
that global warming is happening and will continue to happen for centuries. The
report also stated with 90% certainty that the activity of humans has been the
primary cause of increasing temperatures over the past few decades.
With those conclusions and the conclusions of innumerable other scientists
that global warming is here and will continue into the foreseeable future, I
wanted to summarize the likely effects of global warming, into the advantages
and disadvantages of global warming. First, we will look at the many
disadvantages of global warming and then follow with the very small number of
advantages of global warming.
Disadvantages of Global WarmingOcean circulation disrupted, disrupting
and having unknown effects on world climate.
Higher sea level leading to flooding of low-lying lands and deaths and
disease from flood and evacuation.
Deserts get drier leaving to increased desertification.
Changes to agricultural production that can lead to food shortages.
Water shortages in already water-scarce areas.
Starvation, malnutrition, and increased deaths due to food and crop
shortages.
More extreme weather and an increased frequency of severe and
catastrophic storms.
Increased disease in humans and animals.
Increased deaths from heat waves.
Extinction of additional species of animals and plants.
Loss of animal and plant habitats.
Increased emigration of those from poorer or low-lying countries to
wealthier or higher countries seeking better (or non-deadly) conditions.
Additional use of energy resources for cooling needs.
Increased air pollution.
Increased allergy and asthma rates due to earlier blooming of plants.
Melt of permafrost leads to destruction of structures, landslides, and
avalanches.
Permanent loss of glaciers and ice sheets.
Cultural or heritage sites destroyed faster due to increased extremes.
Increased acidity of rainfall.
Earlier drying of forests leading to increased forest fires in size and
intensity.
Increased cost of insurance as insurers pay out more claims resulting
from increasingly large disasters.
Advantages of Global Warming
• Arctic, Antarctic, Siberia, and other frozen regions of earth may
experience more plant growth and milder climates.
• Northwest Passage through Canada's formerly-icy north opens up to
sea transportation.
• Less need for energy consumption to warm cold places.
• Fewer deaths or injuries due to cold weather.
• Longer growing seasons could mean increased agricultural
production in some local areas.
• Mountains increase in height due to melting glaciers, becoming
higher as they rebound against the missing weight of the ice
Advantages/Benefits of Global Warming
I must preface this list of advantages with the following statements:
1) I do not believe that global warming is actually happening at all. It MAY have
been happening 10 years ago, though there is now evidence that the
observational data is biased by proximity of temperature-recording stations to
artificial heat sources (see surfacestations.org). However, even that biased
data shows that the global average temperature has decreased over the last 9
years since hitting a peak in 1998, and forecasts for 2008 call for another
decrease.
2) Even if global warming is (or was) happening, and even if it continues (or
resumes), it is not caused by humans. Besides the current warm period, there
have been three warm periods in the last 4,000 years, following a fairly regular
cycle of 1,000-1,500 years. The current warming falls right in line with that
cycle. Whatever the cause of those three previous warming periods, it could
not have been human emissions of carbon dioxide, because we were not
burning fossil fuels at any of those times. Moreover, the previous warm periods
all reached temperatures well above any temperatures observed in the current
warm period. So neither the warming itself nor the degree of warming is
anything that cannot be explained by the same natural cycle that caused the
last three warm periods.
That said, I will now list the two major benefits of global warming.
• Fewer cold-related deaths. Many, many more people die from cold
than from heat (though the cold related deaths don't get as much
media attention). The warmer it gets, the fewer people will die from
cold. Moreover, global warming models all predict that the coldest
times of the year, the coldest times of the day, and the coldest parts
of the world will warm much more than the warmest times of the
year, times of the day, and parts of the world. So, the positive effect
of warming in the cold areas/times will more than offset, by a huge
margin in fact, the negative effect of warming in the warm
areas/times.
• Increased food supply. Alarmists will tell you that global warming
endangers the world's food supply. This is because they do not have
a basic understanding of agronomic production. There are three
things that crops need more than anything else to grow and produce
high yields: heat, moisture, and carbon dioxide. Some crops can get
too much heat, but even the worst predictions of global warming
alarmists don't call for such temperatures. In most cases, increased
temperatures will increase yields. Moreover, millions of acres that are
now too cold to grow crops will become warm enough. Furthermore,
in traditional crop-growing areas, it is entirely possible that, with a
shorter, warmer winter, farmers will be able to plant their crops earlier
and harvest them later. What this means is that they might be able to
get two crops planted and harvested in one year, effectively
doubling the yield. The case can be made that rainfall will decrease
in some areas of the world if global warming continues. But overall,
worldwide precipitation will increase. So we might have to shift
farming to other areas (which is not a bad idea anyway) but there will
be plenty of places where rainfall is adequate for growing crops. And
even where it isn't, there's always irrigation. Carbon dioxide is
obvious. Supposedly, it's the culprit behind global warming, so if
global warming continues, it will be because of more carbon dioxide.
But plants live on carbon dioxide - the more of it they have, the faster
they grow and the higher yields they obtain. Greenhouse growers
have artificially raised CO2 levels to several times current
atmospheric levels, with no ill effects (and plenty of positive effects)
to the crops. All in all, global warming will probably be the best thing
to happen to agricultural production since the invention of the tractor
and man-made fertilizers.
If you look at global warming as the alternative to stopping global warming,
then you could also list all of the disadvantages of stopping global warming as
benefits of global warming itself. For example:
• Freedom. Stopping global warming will force the people to hand
over their rights and freedoms to an all-powerful government. This is
 indisputable. We will have to give up our right to drive cars, our right
to electricity, our freedom of enterprise, and our right to anything else
Akawogeji hanarul borigien
that involves the burning of fossil fuels. And we will even have to give gue jogongwa narul bigyohamyonso jamshi
up our freedom of speech, because, in the name of saving the
planet, the government cannot tolerate any skepticism about global
hengboghegeji
warming. Geujo negenun namjado bosogilpun
• Prosperity. Stopping global warming (if the alarmists are correct jaranghago shiphulpun onuri doesoya algedoesso
about its causes) will require a ban on (or at least a massive noui jinshirul
reduction in) the burning of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels are what drives
our economy. Without them, everything will grind to a halt quite Baboga doeoboryosso nege pajyo sogawasso
quickly. Businesses will fail. Jobs will disappear. The economy will go Ijen kuthiya mabobun pullyosso
into the tank.
• Human comfort, convenience, and entertainment. One of the
norul yongsohal mamun obso
rights we will have to give up is the right to use electricity. We won't Nol wihe sajwodon sonmuldo
be able to use our stoves, our lights, our air conditioners, our essodon shigando chageshigogan nachorom
heaters, our dishwashers, our hot water heaters, our televisions, our
computers, etc. Are those things that you want to do without? Can Chamul mankhum chamasso annyongira
you even survive without those things? marhalkoya
• Food supply. I've already mentioned how the food supply will Ijen bakkwiosso jangnanun kuthiya
increase dramatically under global warming. But any effort to stop
global warming will cause a huge decrease in the food supply. modu boryosso nega dashi doragalgosun obso
Growing crops requires tractors, and tractors use fossil fuels. Except Baboga doeoboryosso nege pajyo sogawasso
they won't be using fossil fuels anymore if we are going to stop
global warming. Tractors will be replaced with mules and other draft Ijen kuthiya mabobun pullyosso
animals. Not only will agricultural production drop by 80-90%, but norul yongsohal mamun
much of what is left will be required to feed the draft animals. And
what little food is grown will never make it to the places where people
norul dashi bol mamun obso
live in massive numbers because that too requires burning fossil
fuels. There will be massive starvation around the world, especially
in large urban areas and other places where no food is grown.
• World Peace. We already know that China and India are never
going to go along with reducing their carbon dioxide emissions. But
no plan to stop global warming will work without their participation.
So what are we going to do about that? We're going to go to war with
them, that's what we are going to do. The Arab nations will ally
themselves with China and India, because that will be the only
customers they have for their oil. The two sides will be fairly evenly
matched, which will make for a very long, very bloody world war.
There will be tens of millions of deaths over years, perhaps decades,
in this World War III, caused by global warming alarmism. Not to
mention that the war will defeat its own purpose anyway, because of
the massive burning of fossil fuels that will be required to wage that
war.
• Avoiding World-wide Nuclear Armageddon. It is very, very likely
that the WW3 mentioned in the previous point will, eventually, go
nuclear. Then everything is for naught. Oh sure, global warming will
be stopped, because of the planet-covering cloud of radioactive dust,
smoke, and soot, blocking 90% of the sunlight from reaching the
surface. But between the immediate effect of the missiles
themselves and the delayed effects of radiation poisioning, the vast
majority of the earth's human population will be gone (and for those
of you more worried about the prescious polar bears, they'll be gone
too).
My point is that, even if global warming is happening, even if we are causing it,
and even if we can stop it, there is no proof that doing so will benefit us at all.
In fact, one can easily make the case (as I have) that the benefits of global
warming will outweigh the disadvantages. Moreover, the case can also easily
be made that the sacrifices we will have to make to stop global warming are
far, far worse than global warming itself. Are you willing to give up your freedom
and comfort to stop global warming? Are you willing to sacrifice the world's
economic prosperity, and even its food supply? Are you willing to precipitate a
massive world war, probably ending in nuclear Armageddon? If so, then let's
just launch the nukes now and get it over with. Because I, for one, don't want to
live through the loss of freedom, comfort, prosperity, and food that will
otherwise precede the Armageddon.
"Ss501 Warning lyrics"
Jujo angeji hangsang guredushi
dalkomhan yegi gojidoen nunmullo
narul sogilsun obso
Esso nal etewoyahal iyuobso
bin mal punin umsongdo
onuri doesoya algedoesso aphunjinshirul
Baboga doeoboryosso nege pajyo sogawasso
Ijen kuthiya mabobun pullyosso
norul yongsohal mamun obso