t

MES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

Jan-51
Feb-51
Mar-51
Apr-51
May-51
Jun-51
Jul-51
Aug-51
Sep-51
Oct-51
Nov-51
Dec-51
Jan-52
Feb-52
Mar-52
Apr-52
May-52
Jun-52
Jul-52
Aug-52
Sep-52
Oct-52
Nov-52
Dec-52
Jan-53
Feb-53
Mar-53
Apr-53
May-53
Jun-53
Jul-53
Aug-53
Sep-53
Oct-53
Nov-53
Dec-53
Jan-54
Feb-54
Mar-54
Apr-54
May-54
Jun-54
Jul-54
Aug-54
Sep-54
Oct-54
Nov-54
Dec-54
Jan-55
Feb-55
Mar-55

Yt
318
281
278
250
231
216
223
245
269
302
325
347
342
309
299
268
249
236
242
262
288
321
342
364
367
328
320
287
269
251
259
284
309
345
367
394
392
349
342
311
290
273
282
305
328
364
389
417
420
378
370

S't
318

S''t
318

at
318.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

bt
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Yt est
318.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

S t' Yt (1

S t'' S t' (1

bt

(St'
1

Yt at bt m

52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Apr-55
May-55
Jun-55
Jul-55
Aug-55
Sep-55
Oct-55
Nov-55
Dec-55
Jan-56
Feb-56
Mar-56
Apr-56
May-56
Jun-56
Jul-56
Aug-56
Sep-56
Oct-56
Nov-56
Dec-56
Jan-57
Feb-57
Mar-57
Apr-57
May-57
Jun-57
Jul-57
Aug-57
Sep-57
Oct-57
Nov-57
Dec-57
Jan-58
Feb-58
Mar-58
Apr-58
May-58
Jun-58
Jul-58
Aug-58
Sep-58
Oct-58
Nov-58
Dec-58
Jan-59
Feb-59
Mar-59
Apr-59
May-59
Jun-59
Jul-59

334
314
296
305
330
356
396
422
452
453
412
398
362
341
322
335
359
392
427
454
483
487
440
429
393
370
347
357
388
415
457
491
516
529
477
463
423
398
380
389
419
448
493
526
560

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Aug-59

0.00

0.00

0.00

Alfa =

0.80

BROWN

S t' Yt (1 )S t'1
S t'' S t' (1 ) S t''1
at 2S t' S t''

bt

(St' St'' )
1

Yt at bt m
Valores Iniciales
S'1=
Y1
S''1=
Y1

MES

Zt
Jan-51
Feb-51
Mar-51
Apr-51
May-51
Jun-51
Jul-51
Aug-51
Sep-51
Oct-51
Nov-51
Dec-51
Jan-52
Feb-52
Mar-52
Apr-52
May-52
Jun-52
Jul-52
Aug-52
Sep-52
Oct-52
Nov-52
Dec-52
Jan-53
Feb-53
Mar-53
Apr-53
May-53
Jun-53
Jul-53
Aug-53
Sep-53
Oct-53
Nov-53
Dec-53
Jan-54
Feb-54
Mar-54
Apr-54
May-54
Jun-54
Jul-54
Aug-54
Sep-54
Oct-54
Nov-54
Dec-54
Jan-55
Feb-55
Mar-55
Apr-55
May-55
Jun-55
Jul-55

318
281
278
250
231
216
223
245
269
302
325
347
342
309
299
268
249
236
242
262
288
321
342
364
367
328
320
287
269
251
259
284
309
345
367
394
392
349
342
311
290
273
282
305
328
364
389
417
420
378
370
334
314
296
305

Aug-55
Sep-55
Oct-55
Nov-55
Dec-55
Jan-56
Feb-56
Mar-56
Apr-56
May-56
Jun-56
Jul-56
Aug-56
Sep-56
Oct-56
Nov-56
Dec-56
Jan-57
Feb-57
Mar-57
Apr-57
May-57
Jun-57
Jul-57
Aug-57
Sep-57
Oct-57
Nov-57
Dec-57
Jan-58
Feb-58
Mar-58
Apr-58
May-58
Jun-58
Jul-58
Aug-58
Sep-58
Oct-58
Nov-58
Dec-58

330
356
396
422
452
453
412
398
362
341
322
335
359
392
427
454
483
487
440
429
393
370
347
357
388
415
457
491
516
529
477
463
423
398
380
389
419
448
493
526
560

Jul-59

Apr-59

Jan-59

Oct-58

Jul-58

Apr-58

Jan-58

Oct-57

Jul-57

Apr-57

Jan-57

Oct-56

Jul-56

Apr-56

Jan-56

Oct-55

Jul-55

Apr-55

Jan-55

Oct-54

Jul-54

Apr-54

Jan-54

Oct-53

Jul-53

Apr-53

Jan-53

Oct-52

Jul-52

Apr-52

Jan-52

Oct-51

Jul-51

Apr-51

Jan-51

Modelo de Brown

600

500

400

300
Series
1

200

100

MES
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51

Jan-51
Feb-51
Mar-51
Apr-51
May-51
Jun-51
Jul-51
Aug-51
Sep-51
Oct-51
Nov-51
Dec-51
Jan-52
Feb-52
Mar-52
Apr-52
May-52
Jun-52
Jul-52
Aug-52
Sep-52
Oct-52
Nov-52
Dec-52
Jan-53
Feb-53
Mar-53
Apr-53
May-53
Jun-53
Jul-53
Aug-53
Sep-53
Oct-53
Nov-53
Dec-53
Jan-54
Feb-54
Mar-54
Apr-54
May-54
Jun-54
Jul-54
Aug-54
Sep-54
Oct-54
Nov-54
Dec-54
Jan-55
Feb-55
Mar-55

Yt
318
281
278
250
231
216
223
245
269
302
325
347
342
309
299
268
249
236
242
262
288
321
342
364
367
328
320
287
269
251
259
284
309
345
367
394
392
349
342
311
290
273
282
305
328
364
389
417
420
378
370

S't
318
288.40
280.08
256.02
236.00
220.00
222.40
240.48
263.30
294.26
318.85
341.37
341.87
315.57
302.31
274.86
254.17
239.63
241.53
257.91
281.98
313.20
336.24
358.45
365.29
335.46
323.09
294.22
274.04
255.61
258.32
278.86
302.97
336.59
360.92
387.38
391.08
357.42
345.08
317.82
295.56
277.51
281.10
300.22
322.44
355.69
382.34
410.07
418.01
386.00
373.20

S''t
318
294.32
282.93
261.40
241.08
224.22
222.76
236.94
258.02
287.01
312.48
335.59
340.62
320.58
305.97
281.08
259.55
243.62
241.95
254.71
276.53
305.86
330.16
352.79
362.79
340.92
326.66
300.71
279.38
260.36
258.73
274.84
297.35
328.74
354.48
380.80
389.02
363.74
348.81
324.02
301.25
282.26
281.33
296.44
317.24
348.00
375.47
403.15
415.04
391.81
376.92

at
318.00
282.48
277.23
250.63
230.92
215.78
222.04
244.02
268.57
301.51
325.22
347.15
343.13
310.57
298.66
268.64
248.79
235.65
241.11
261.10
287.43
320.53
342.31
364.10
367.79
329.99
319.53
287.73
268.71
250.86
257.91
282.89
308.60
344.44
367.35
393.96
393.13
351.09
341.35
311.62
289.87
272.76
280.87
304.00
327.64
363.38
389.21
416.99
420.99
380.20
369.48

bt
0.00
-23.68
-11.39
-21.53
-20.32
-16.87
-1.45
14.17
21.09
28.99
25.47
23.11
5.02
-20.03
-14.61
-24.88
-21.53
-15.94
-1.67
12.77
21.81
29.33
24.30
22.63
10.00
-21.87
-14.27
-25.95
-21.33
-19.01
-1.63
16.11
22.51
31.40
25.74
26.32
8.22
-25.29
-14.92
-24.80
-22.76
-18.99
-0.93
15.11
20.80
30.76
27.47
27.68
11.89
-23.23
-14.89

Yt est
318.00
306.16
288.62
272.16
251.24
232.65
223.49
229.85
247.48
272.52
299.75
324.04
338.11
330.60
313.28
293.53
270.32
251.59
242.78
248.33
265.62
291.20
318.01
341.48
357.79
351.86
333.79
313.68
290.04
269.87
259.55
266.78
286.09
313.05
341.61
367.64
384.91
376.38
356.28
336.41
312.63
291.76
281.80
288.89
306.84
332.62
361.74
389.31
409.09
403.43
384.37

S t' Yt (1

S t'' S t' (1

bt

(St'
1

Yt at bt m

52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Apr-55
May-55
Jun-55
Jul-55
Aug-55
Sep-55
Oct-55
Nov-55
Dec-55
Jan-56
Feb-56
Mar-56
Apr-56
May-56
Jun-56
Jul-56
Aug-56
Sep-56
Oct-56
Nov-56
Dec-56
Jan-57
Feb-57
Mar-57
Apr-57
May-57
Jun-57
Jul-57
Aug-57
Sep-57
Oct-57
Nov-57
Dec-57
Jan-58
Feb-58
Mar-58
Apr-58
May-58
Jun-58
Jul-58
Aug-58
Sep-58
Oct-58
Nov-58
Dec-58
Jan-59
Feb-59
Mar-59
Apr-59
May-59
Jun-59
Jul-59

334
314
296
305
330
356
396
422
452
453
412
398
362
341
322
335
359
392
427
454
483
487
440
429
393
370
347
357
388
415
457
491
516
529
477
463
423
398
380
389
419
448
493
526
560

341.84
319.57
300.71
304.14
324.83
349.77
386.75
414.95
444.59
451.32
419.86
402.37
370.07
346.81
326.96
333.39
353.88
384.38
418.48
446.90
475.78
484.76
448.95
432.99
401.00
376.20
352.84
356.17
381.63
408.33
447.27
482.25
509.25
525.05
486.61
467.72
431.94
404.79
384.96
388.19
412.84
440.97
482.59
517.32
551.46

348.86
325.43
305.66
304.45
320.75
343.96
378.20
407.60
437.19
448.49
425.59
407.02
377.46
352.94
332.16
333.15
349.73
377.45
410.27
439.57
468.54
481.51
455.46
437.48
408.30
382.62
358.80
356.69
376.65
401.99
438.21
473.44
502.09
520.46
493.38
472.85
440.13
411.86
390.34
388.62
407.99
434.37
472.95
508.44
542.86

334.82
313.71
295.77
303.84
328.91
355.57
395.31
422.30
451.99
454.14
414.14
397.73
362.69
340.69
321.77
333.64
358.03
391.30
426.68
454.22
483.02
488.00
442.44
428.50
393.70
369.78
346.88
355.64
386.62
414.66
456.32
491.06
516.41
529.64
479.84
462.59
423.76
397.72
379.58
387.76
417.68
447.56
492.24
526.19
560.07

-28.07
-23.43
-19.77
-1.21
16.31
23.21
34.23
29.40
29.59
11.30
-22.90
-18.57
-29.55
-24.52
-20.79
0.99
16.59
27.71
32.82
29.30
28.97
12.97
-26.05
-17.98
-29.19
-25.68
-23.82
-2.10
19.95
25.34
36.22
35.23
28.64
18.37
-27.08
-20.53
-32.73
-28.27
-21.52
-1.72
19.37
26.38
38.58
35.50
34.42

362.89
337.14
315.54
305.05
312.60
332.36
361.08
392.90
422.40
442.84
437.04
416.30
392.24
365.20
342.55
332.65
341.44
363.59
393.86
424.92
454.05
475.02
468.49
446.47
422.89
395.46
370.71
357.74
366.67
389.32
420.10
455.83
487.77
511.27
506.92
483.12
456.49
425.99
401.10
389.48
398.31
421.18
453.66
490.70
525.65
491.24
456.82
422.41
387.99
353.58
319.16
284.75

Aug-59

250.33

Alfa =

0.80

BROWN

S t' Yt (1 )S t'1
S t'' S t' (1 ) S t''1
at 2S t' S t''

bt

(St' St'' )
1

Yt at bt m
Valores Iniciales
S'1=
Y1
S''1=
Y1

Fecha

Cierre
Ajustado*
Yt

8/10/2010

32,685.52

8/9/2010

32,837.57

8/6/2010

32,917.92

8/5/2010

32,907.19

8/4/2010

32,900.48

8/3/2010

32,768.08

8/2/2010

32,816.52

7/30/2010

32,308.74

7/29/2010

32,463.72

7/28/2010

32,665.56

7/27/2010

32,695.31

7/26/2010

32,958.89

7/23/2010

32,806.03

7/22/2010

32,720.76

7/21/2010

32,108.99

7/20/2010

32,024.27

7/19/2010

31,845.88

7/16/2010

31,783.39

7/15/2010

32,381.06

7/14/2010

32,305.71

7/13/2010

32,185.20

7/12/2010

31,870.55

7/9/2010

32,004.31

7/8/2010

31,960.64

7/7/2010

32,035.19

7/6/2010

31,533.58

7/5/2010

31,391.45

7/2/2010

31,379.67

7/1/2010

31,197.04

6/30/2010

31,156.97

6/29/2010

31,473.20

6/28/2010

32,568.19

6/25/2010

32,607.13

6/24/2010

32,312.76

6/23/2010

32,663.29

6/22/2010

32,470.70

6/21/2010

32,882.00

6/18/2010

32,814.62

6/17/2010

32,775.34

6/16/2010

32,805.63

6/15/2010

32,685.40

6/14/2010

32,238.41

6/11/2010

32,124.28

6/10/2010

31,910.22

6/9/2010

31,209.33

6/8/2010

31,059.83

6/7/2010

30,739.01

6/4/2010

30,992.65

6/3/2010

31,331.86

S't

S''t

at

bt

Yt est

32,685.52

32,685.52

32776.75
32861.45
32888.89
32895.85
32819.19
32817.59
32512.28
32483.14
32592.59
32654.22
32837.02
32818.43
32759.83
32369.32
32162.29
31972.44
31859.01
32172.24
32252.32
32212.05
32007.15
32005.45
31978.56
32012.54
31725.16
31524.94
31437.78
31293.33
31211.52
31368.53
32088.32
32399.61
32347.50
32536.97
32497.21
32728.08
32780.01
32777.21
32794.26
32728.94
32434.62
32248.42
32045.50
31543.80
31253.42
30944.77
30973.50
31188.52

32740.26
32812.97
32858.53
32880.92
32843.88
32828.10
32638.61
32545.33
32573.69
32622.01
32751.02
32791.46
32772.48
32530.59
32309.61
32107.31
31958.33
32086.68
32186.06
32201.66
32084.95
32037.25
32002.04
32008.34
31838.43
31650.33
31522.80
31385.12
31280.96
31333.50
31786.39
32154.32
32270.23
32430.28
32470.44
32625.02
32718.01
32753.53
32777.97
32748.55
32560.20
32373.13
32176.55
31796.90
31470.81
31155.19
31046.17
31131.58

32685.52
32813.24
32909.93
32919.26
32910.77
32794.49
32807.07
32385.95
32420.96
32611.50
32686.44
32923.03
32845.39
32747.17
32208.06
32014.97
31837.58
31759.69
32257.80
32318.58
32222.44
31929.35
31973.64
31955.09
32016.74
31611.89
31399.54
31352.75
31201.55
31142.07
31403.55
32390.25
32644.89
32424.77
32643.67
32523.98
32831.14
32842.00
32800.88
32810.55
32709.33
32309.05
32123.71
31914.45
31290.70
31036.02
30734.36
30900.82
31245.45

0.00
54.74
72.72
45.55
22.39
-37.04
-15.78
-189.49
-93.28
28.36
48.32
129.01
40.45
-18.98
-241.89
-220.98
-202.30
-148.98
128.35
99.39
15.59
-116.70
-47.70
-35.21
6.30
-169.90
-188.10
-127.54
-137.68
-104.16
52.54
452.90
367.93
115.91
160.05
40.16
154.59
92.99
35.52
24.44
-29.41
-188.36
-187.07
-196.58
-379.65
-326.09
-315.62
-109.01
85.40

32685.52
32758.50
32837.21
32873.71
32888.38
32831.53
32822.85
32575.44
32514.24
32583.14
32638.12
32794.02
32804.95
32766.15
32449.96
32235.95
32039.88
31908.67
32129.46
32219.19
32206.85
32046.05
32021.35
31990.30
32010.44
31781.80
31587.64
31480.29
31339.23
31246.24
31351.01
31937.36
32276.97
32308.86
32483.62
32483.82
32676.55
32749.01
32765.37
32786.11
32738.75
32497.41
32310.77
32111.02
31670.35
31362.11
31049.98
31009.84
31160.05

6/2/2010

31,411.91

6/1/2010

31,245.83

5/31/2010

32,038.53

5/28/2010

31,547.55

5/27/2010

32,056.16

5/26/2010

31,328.49

5/25/2010

30,634.17

5/24/2010

30,759.48

5/21/2010

30,629.15

5/20/2010

30,368.08

5/19/2010

30,992.76

5/18/2010

31,136.35

5/17/2010

31,580.63

5/14/2010

31,812.73

5/13/2010

32,342.43

5/12/2010

32,379.63

5/11/2010

32,119.11

5/10/2010

32,276.92

5/7/2010

31,488.82

5/6/2010

31,398.97

5/5/2010

31,995.28

5/4/2010

32,120.65

5/3/2010

32,832.45

4/30/2010

32,687.32

4/29/2010

32,861.00

4/28/2010

32,952.86

4/27/2010

32,679.36

4/26/2010

33,771.55

4/23/2010

33,853.69

4/22/2010

33,658.37

4/21/2010

33,517.18

4/20/2010

33,813.16

4/19/2010

33,439.77

4/16/2010

33,621.39

4/15/2010

34,134.23

4/14/2010

34,113.93

4/13/2010

33,819.04

4/12/2010

33,852.39

4/9/2010

33,840.85

4/8/2010

33,567.35

4/7/2010

33,632.35

4/6/2010

33,801.21

4/5/2010

33,648.89

3/31/2010

33,266.43

3/30/2010

33,399.46

3/29/2010

33,416.10

3/26/2010

33,147.81

3/25/2010

33,164.33

3/24/2010

33,160.97

3/23/2010

33,361.27

3/22/2010

33,142.02

3/19/2010

33,022.84

31322.55
31276.52
31733.73
31622.02
31882.50
31550.10
31000.54
30855.90
30719.85
30508.79
30799.17
31001.48
31348.97
31627.23
32056.35
32250.32
32171.59
32234.79
31787.21
31554.27
31818.87
31999.94
32499.45
32612.17
32761.47
32876.30
32758.14
33366.18
33658.69
33658.50
33573.71
33717.38
33550.81
33593.16
33917.80
34035.48
33905.62
33873.68
33853.98
33682.00
33652.21
33741.61
33685.98
33434.25
33413.38
33415.01
33254.69
33200.47
33176.77
33287.47
33200.20
33093.78

31246.16
31264.38
31545.99
31591.61
31766.15
31636.52
31254.93
31015.51
30838.12
30640.52
30735.71
30895.17
31167.45
31443.32
31811.14
32074.64
32132.81
32194.00
31949.92
31712.53
31776.34
31910.50
32263.87
32472.85
32646.02
32784.19
32768.56
33127.13
33446.07
33573.52
33573.63
33659.88
33594.44
33593.67
33788.15
33936.55
33917.99
33891.40
33868.95
33756.78
33694.04
33722.58
33700.62
33540.80
33464.34
33434.74
33326.71
33250.97
33206.45
33255.06
33222.15
33145.13

31398.94
31288.66
31921.47
31652.43
31998.86
31463.68
30746.15
30696.29
30601.59
30377.06
30862.63
31107.79
31530.49
31811.14
32301.56
32425.99
32210.37
32275.58
31624.49
31396.00
31861.41
32089.38
32735.02
32751.49
32876.92
32968.42
32747.72
33605.24
33871.31
33743.47
33573.78
33774.88
33507.19
33592.65
34047.45
34134.41
33893.24
33855.96
33839.01
33607.22
33610.38
33760.64
33671.34
33327.70
33362.41
33395.28
33182.67
33149.98
33147.09
33319.88
33178.26
33042.44

114.58
18.21
281.61
45.62
174.54
-129.63
-381.59
-239.42
-177.40
-197.60
95.19
159.46
272.28
275.87
367.82
263.51
58.17
61.19
-244.07
-237.40
63.81
134.16
353.37
208.98
173.17
138.17
-15.63
358.58
318.93
127.46
0.11
86.25
-65.44
-0.77
194.48
148.40
-18.56
-26.58
-22.45
-112.17
-62.74
28.54
-21.96
-159.82
-76.45
-29.60
-108.03
-75.74
-44.52
48.61
-32.92
-77.02

31284.36
31270.45
31639.86
31606.81
31824.32
31593.31
31127.74
30935.71
30778.98
30574.65
30767.44
30948.33
31258.21
31535.27
31933.74
32162.48
32152.20
32214.39
31868.57
31633.40
31797.60
31955.22
32381.66
32542.51
32703.74
32830.25
32763.35
33246.66
33552.38
33616.01
33573.67
33688.63
33572.63
33593.42
33852.98
33986.01
33911.80
33882.54
33861.47
33719.39
33673.13
33732.10
33693.30
33487.52
33438.86
33424.88
33290.70
33225.72
33191.61
33271.27
33211.17
33119.46

3/18/2010

32,969.83

3/17/2010

32,798.30

3/16/2010

32,723.90

3/12/2010

32,578.05

3/11/2010

32,602.94

3/10/2010

32,505.76

3/9/2010

32,514.17

3/8/2010

32,520.27

3/5/2010

32,436.53

3/4/2010

32,202.00

3/3/2010

32,353.54

3/2/2010

32,055.04

3/1/2010

31,765.14

2/26/2010

31,634.54

2/25/2010

31,649.10

2/24/2010

31,788.54

2/23/2010

31,850.24

2/22/2010

32,034.34

2/19/2010

32,172.11

2/18/2010

32,170.79

2/17/2010

31,892.12

2/16/2010

31,644.77

2/15/2010

31,038.32

2/12/2010

31,005.74

2/11/2010

30,845.63

2/10/2010

30,746.05

2/9/2010

30,818.48

2/8/2010

30,649.44

2/5/2010

30,630.73

2/4/2010

30,603.71

2/3/2010

31,287.04

2/2/2010

30,876.65

1/29/2010

30,391.61

1/28/2010

30,811.35

1/27/2010

30,610.83

1/26/2010

30,651.56

1/25/2010

30,465.06

1/22/2010

30,830.91

1/21/2010

31,205.30

1/20/2010

32,025.34

1/19/2010

32,473.05

1/18/2010

32,482.73

1/15/2010

32,262.30

1/14/2010

32,729.58

1/13/2010

32,836.08

1/12/2010

32,792.66

1/11/2010

32,935.38

1/8/2010

32,892.04

1/7/2010

33,064.57

1/6/2010

32,830.16

1/5/2010

32,732.76

1/4/2010

32,758.53

33019.41
32886.74
32789.04
32662.45
32626.74
32554.15
32530.16
32524.23
32471.61
32309.84
32336.06
32167.45
31926.06
31751.15
31689.92
31749.09
31809.78
31944.52
32081.07
32134.90
31989.23
31782.56
31336.01
31137.85
30962.52
30832.64
30824.14
30719.32
30666.17
30628.69
31023.70
30935.47
30609.15
30730.47
30658.69
30654.41
30540.80
30714.87
31009.13
31618.85
32131.37
32342.19
32294.25
32555.45
32723.83
32765.13
32867.28
32882.14
32991.60
32894.73
32797.55
32774.14

33069.70
32959.93
32857.39
32740.42
32672.21
32601.38
32558.65
32538.00
32498.16
32385.17
32355.71
32242.75
32052.74
31871.79
31762.67
31754.52
31787.68
31881.78
32001.36
32081.48
32026.13
31879.99
31553.60
31304.15
31099.17
30939.25
30870.19
30779.67
30711.57
30661.84
30878.96
30912.87
30730.64
30730.54
30687.43
30667.62
30591.53
30665.53
30871.69
31319.99
31806.82
32128.04
32227.77
32424.38
32604.05
32700.70
32800.65
32849.54
32934.77
32910.75
32842.83
32801.61

32969.12
32813.56
32720.68
32584.47
32581.27
32506.93
32501.68
32510.46
32445.05
32234.52
32316.42
32092.15
31799.39
31630.51
31617.17
31743.66
31831.88
32007.25
32160.79
32188.32
31952.33
31685.12
31118.43
30971.55
30825.86
30726.02
30778.10
30658.98
30620.77
30595.54
31168.44
30958.08
30487.67
30730.40
30629.95
30641.20
30490.07
30764.20
31146.56
31917.72
32455.93
32556.33
32360.74
32686.52
32843.61
32829.56
32933.91
32914.73
33048.42
32878.72
32752.27
32746.66

-75.43
-109.77
-102.53
-116.97
-68.21
-70.84
-42.73
-20.65
-39.83
-112.99
-29.47
-112.95
-190.01
-180.95
-109.12
-8.14
33.16
94.10
119.58
80.13
-55.35
-146.15
-326.38
-249.45
-204.98
-159.92
-69.06
-90.52
-68.10
-49.72
217.12
33.91
-182.23
-0.10
-43.11
-19.81
-76.09
74.00
206.16
448.30
486.83
321.22
99.73
196.61
179.67
96.65
99.95
48.89
85.23
-24.02
-67.92
-41.22

33044.56
32923.34
32823.22
32701.43
32649.48
32577.77
32544.41
32531.11
32484.89
32347.51
32345.88
32205.10
31989.40
31811.47
31726.29
31751.81
31798.73
31913.15
32041.21
32108.19
32007.68
31831.27
31444.81
31221.00
31030.84
30885.94
30847.16
30749.49
30688.87
30645.27
30951.33
30924.17
30669.90
30730.51
30673.06
30661.01
30566.16
30690.20
30940.41
31469.42
31969.10
32235.11
32261.01
32489.91
32663.94
32732.91
32833.96
32865.84
32963.18
32902.74
32820.19
32787.88

Alfa =

0.6

S t' Yt (1 ) S t'1

S t'' S t' (1 ) S t''1

at 2S t' S t''
bt

(St' St'' )
1

Yt at bt m
Suavizamiento exponencial de Brown
35,000.00
34,000.00
33,000.00
32,000.00
31,000.00
30,000.00
29,000.00

1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41
46
51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101
106
111
116
121
126
131
136
141
146
151

28,000.00

S't

Yt est