TNH XC SUT BNG CNG THC XC SUT Y V BAYES

11.01.2010

Gi s ta c nhm y cc bin c

( ngha l 2 bin c bt k u xung khc vi

nhau v tng ca n bin c ny tng ng vi bin c chc chn: Bin c A cn tm xc sut quan h vi nhm y nh sau: Bin c A xy ra th suy ra xy ra bin c no ; cn ngc li nu xy ra bin c no th cha khng nh bin c A xy ra. Khi P(A) c tnh nh sau: (Cng thc y ) k=1,,n (Cng thc Bayes) Nhn xt. Ci kh khi tnh xc sut bng cng thc y v cng thc Bayes l phi nhn ra c m hnh bi ton v phi ch ra c nhm y cc bin c. Trc ht ta thy rng nhm y l khng duy nht. Chng hn nhm y th cng u l nhm y . Vn ta phi chn nhm y no c quan h vi bin c A ph hp v m hnh? Nu bi ton cp n 2 phn, bin c A lin quan trc tip n phn sau th nhm y cn tm chnh l cc trng hp xy ra phn u. Nu php th gm 2 bc hay 2 giai on; bin c A lin quan trc tip n bc sau hay giai on sau th nhm y cn tm chnh l cc trng hp c th ca bc mt hay giai on 1. V d 1. Mt nh my c 3 phn xng cng sn xut ra mt loi sn phm. Sn phm ca phn xng I chim sn lng ca nh my. Tng t, phn xng II v phn xng III chim T l chnh phm ca tng phn xng tng ng l v a) Tm t l chnh phm chung ca ton nh my. b) Ly ngu nhin t l sn phm ca nh my ta b ci ph phm. Hy on xem ph phm l do phn xng no lm ra? Li gii. a) Bi ton ny cp n 2 phn: phn xng ca nh my v sn phm chnh phm. Vic tm t l chnh phm chung ca nh my tng ng vi vic tnh xc sut ca bin c: A={Ly ngu nhin ra mt sn phm, c chnh phm}. Bin c A lin quan trc tip n chnh phm. Do theo nhn xt trn nhm y s l: ={Sn phm ca phn xng i}; i=1,2,3. Vy ta c: ( y cc xc sut c iu kin c tnh trc tip. Din t thnh li: $P(A/{B_1})$ l xc sut ly ra mt chnh phm vi iu kin cc sn phm ny do phn xng I lm ra hay l xc sut ly ra mt chnh phm ca phn xng I; theo bi ta c ngay 0,94) b) tr li cu hi b) ta dng cng thc Bayes Vy ta nn on ph phm ly ra l ca phn xng I lm ra. Tr li nh vy kh nng ng l cao nht.